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The Draft is here!  I'll post our picks here and scrounge what I can on our new Blue Jays.

10. Phil Bickford RHP HS California

LA Times article

Scouting

More Scouting



47. Clinton Hollon RHP HS Kentucky

Scouting

More Scouting

83. Patrick Murphy RHP HS Arizona

AZ Central Article, Tommy John 

Perfect Game: "PATRICK MURPHY, rhp, Hamilton HS, Chandler
Murphy, a long, loose, projectable righthander, easily ranked as the top prep arm in Arizona for the 2013 draft until hurting his pitching elbow during the 2012 season and undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer. He hasn’t pitched since, although he is back throwing and there is a chance he might throw a bullpen or two prior to the draft. If he does, and flashes any semblance of the raw stuff that he featured as a junior at Hamilton High, notably a 92-mph fastball and the makings of an impressive curve, then it’s entirely possible a team could take a stab at Murphy in the top 10 rounds—though it’s highly unlikely he would ever go as early as the second to fourth rounds, where he projected prior to his injury. Murphy has committed to Oregon, and that appears to be his more-likely option in the short term, especially since he has been assured all along by Ducks officials that his scholarship offer will be honored."

115. Evan Smith LHP HS Alabama

Scouting

Perfect Game: "PROSPECT ON THE RISE: Evan Smith, lhp, Mary G. Montgomery HS, Semmes. With a fastball that topped in the high-80s last summer, Smith did not rank among Alabama’s 10 best high-school prospects in the 2013 draft class entering his senior year, but the 6-foot-5 lefthander has added 4-5 mph in velocity while almost every one of the state’s top-ranked prep players has regressed to some degree—for any number of reasons. If enough clubs are scared off by right-hander Keegan Thompson’s stated desire to attend college at Auburn, Smith could conceivably surface as the first pick from the state’s high-school ranks."

145. Daniel Lietz LHP JC Illinois

MLB.com: "After going undrafted out of high school last year, Lietz jumped onto Draft boards this spring when he showed a sharp increase in fastball velocity. His fastball mostly sat in the mid-80s a year ago, but after spending a winter in the weight room, Leitz throws in the upper-80s to low-90s. He is listed at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds and scouts think he may have room to get even stronger. Lietz also throws a slider, changeup, splitter and curveball. His slider and changeup both have the potential to be Major League-average offerings. Lietz isn't afraid to pitch to contact with his fastball and has a good feel for pitching."

175. Matt Boyd LHP Oregon State

MLB.com: "Boyd spent his first three years at Oregon State as a reliever, but is starting for the first time as a senior after not signing with the Cincinnati Reds, who took him in the 2012 Draft. As a starter, he's shown the ability to mix four pitches well, all of which could be Major League average as he develops them. Big, strong and durable, he throws his fastball, curve, slider and changeup around the plate consistently and varies his arm slot to give hitters different looks. A team that takes Boyd can give him the chance to remain as a starter, knowing that he had success as a lower-angle lefty reliever in the past."

205. Conner Greene RHP HS California

MLB.com: "Greene is part of the California prep pitching class. At 6-foot-3, 165 pounds, Greene is tall and projectable and also has the stuff to back it up. He gets great downward plane on his fastball and it could be a plus pitch in the future as he fills out. He has shown good feel for both his curveball and his splitter. Both secondary pitches have the chance to be Major League average. His command is a problem, however, and will need to improve in order for him to be successful at higher levels. He'll get the chance to do that at the College of Southern Nevada if he doesn't sign."

235. Kendall Graveman RHP Mississippi State

MLB.com: "Graveman has capably moved to the front of the Mississippi State rotation to fill the void left by the departure of Chris Stratton, a 2012 first-round selection. Graveman was a 36th-round pick himself a year ago, but returned to school for his senior year. He uses a sinker-changeup combination to produce plenty of groundouts. Graveman's fastball sits in the upper-80s with heavy sinking action and his changeup is a solid offering. Graveman throws a curveball as well, but it is a below-average pitch. Graveman has good command and has proven to be durable in college, which should make him a solid senior sign."

265. Chad Girodo LHP Mississippi State

295. Garrett Custons C United States Air Force Academy

325. Jacob Brentz LHP/LF

MLB.com: "Lefties with plus velocity will always generate interest, and Brentz was moving up boards with his spring performance. A two-way standout from the Missouri high school ranks, there's no question Brentz's future is on the mound, especially after touching the upper-90s with his fastball during this, his senior season. He's also shown some ability to spin a breaking ball. Brentz is still pretty raw on the mound, but you can't teach that kind of arm strength. When it comes from the left side especially, it's going to continue to bring scouts in to take a look right up until Draft Day."

355. Tim Mayza LHP Millersville University

Picks N Prospects: "Tim Mayza, LHP Millersville (6’3, 215) Mayza came to Cotuit as a temporary player and was one of the last players to make the team. Mayza went 1 and 1 with a 9.35 ERA in 17.1 innings while striking out 20, walking 10, and giving up 31 hits. Mayza struggled as a Kettleer, but he was facing a higher level of competition than he had ever faced before since he was the first player ever from Division 2 Millersville to play in the cape league. But there is a glimmer of hope for Mayza, his FB sat 90-93, and topped at 94. Mayza’s problem was that he had no real secondary pitches, he played with a few different pitches as the season went on including a curve and a change up which did show some improvements towards the end of the season in his start on August 7th where he went 2.2 innings striking out 4 while giving up 4 hits, 2 walks, and one earned run. But he even tipped his off speed pitches in some outings by having a slower arm speed with his secondary pitches than his fastball, and it just seemed like he was lobbing his secondary pitches instead of throwing them. Draft: 35- undrafted. Mayza is a good sized lefty with a good fastball so someone might take him. Mayza is a good guy and seems willing to work but needs a really really good pitching coach to straighten him out and help him develop secondary pitches along with fix his arm slot and arm speed. I just think that if Mike Roberts and pitching coach Alex Gett, who both helped so many pitchers improve a great deal this summer, couldn’t help Mayza get going with secondary pitches and arm speed then there are very few guys who can and I don’t think those guys are single A pitching coaches."

385. Tim Locastro SS Ithaca College

415. L.B. Dantzler 1B South Carolina

445. Jonathan Davis OF Central Arkansas

475. Danny Jansen C HS Wisconsin

505. Eric Lauer LHP HS Ohio

MLB.com: "Lauer, who turns 18 the night before the Draft begins, is one of the most projectable pitchers in this year's draft. Listed at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, Lauer, a left-hander out of Midview High School (Ohio), has a clean, loose delivery and is already throwing in the upper-80s. Scouts believe he will unlock more velocity as he physically matures and builds upper-body strength. Lauer also throws a curveball and changeup, both of which are promising but still need development. He has a good feel for pitching and is around the plate with all three of his pitches. Lauer is committed to Kent State."

Signability

535. Sean Ratcliffe RHP HS Canada

565. Christian Vasquez SS Lubbock Christian University

595. Chaz Frank OF North Carolina

625. Mike Reeves C Florida Gulf Coast University

655. Sam Tewes RHP HS Nebraska

MLB.com: "Tewes' projectability and athleticism gives scouts plenty to dream about. He is listed at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds and regularly touches the low-90s with his fastball. His best secondary pitch is his promising breaking ball and he is also developing a changeup. Tewes, a right-hander out of Waverly H.S. (Neb.), has good command and already shows a good feel for pitching. He still has plenty of work to do, especially to improve his consistency, but Tewes has all the tools to be successful. He is committed to Wichita State."

685. Brendan Kalfus OF St. Mary's College

715. Sean Hurley OF Central Arizona College

745. Scott Silverstein LHP Virginia

775. Tanner Cable RHP Northwest Mississippi CC

805. Andrew Florides SS HS New York

835. Matt Dermody LHP Iowa

865. Garrett Pickens RHP Delta State

895. Rowdy Tellez 1B HS California

MLB.com: "Big, strong, left-handed-hitting first basemen don't come through the Draft all that often these days. Tellez fits that mold, and his ability to do damage with the bat was generating some buzz this spring. The Northern California area product has a good idea of what he's doing at the plate. He hits the ball with authority to all fields and he should be able to hit for average. His power tool is even better, with an ability to hit the ball out anywhere, with plus-plus pop to the pull side. Tellez is a capable fielder at first base, but there's no question what teams are looking at. It's that bat and the team that covets his power from the left side the most will be the one to take him."

925. Brison Celek 1B University of South Carolina

955. Josh Sawyer LHP HS Texas

985. Edgar Cabral C HS California

1015. Dane Dunning RHP HS Florida

Baseball Factory: "Dane Dunning | RHP | 6-3/200 | 2013 | Clay (FL) HS 5/25/12 - Lean and wiry right hander with an electric arm. Fastball ball sat 86-88 even late into at least his fourth inning. Arm works from glove in sequence and full and loose out front. Spun tight breaking ball at 73-74 with depth and life to action down in the zone. Saw a few CH at 78. Athletic delivery, strike thrower. Attacked the zone with fastball and was able to put away hitters with breaking ball. Projectable velocity as he fills out his frame."

1045. Akoni Arriaga RHP HS Hawaii

1075. David Harris SS Southern Arkansas

1105. Brett Barber RHP Ohio University

1135. Jon Nunnally Jr. OF HS Arizona

Father is AAA Buffalo hitting coach.

1165. Zach Levinson SS HS New York

1195. Antonio Ruiz 1B HS California

Draft 2013! | 181 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Forbes - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#273372) #
Guessing the Jays get Austin Meadows or Trey Ball.
finch - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#273373) #
I like Meadows, McGuire and JP Crawford. I'm guessing McGuire.

Austin Wilson would be a sweet get in the 2nd round
Mike Green - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#273375) #
I like McGuire.
sam - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#273377) #
This pick has Braden Shipley written all over it.  I don't like it. 
Mike Forbes - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#273378) #
Hmm.. Shipley or McGuire? Or way off the board?
Thomas - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#273379) #
I'm going to guess off the board to some degree with Phil Bickford.
sam - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#273380) #
I'm not a big fan of McGuire either.  There's plenty of catching depth out there and McGuire comes out of the Washington area.  You'd like your catcher to have gone through some wars and you don't necessarily get it in these regions. 
Mike Forbes - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#273381) #
I wouldn't hate Shipley as much as I hated Deck McGuire.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#273382) #
Thomas wins.
tercet - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#273383) #
Bickford!
Mike Forbes - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#273384) #
Good call, Thomas. Not sure if I like it or not. But there's upside.
jester00 - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#273385) #
Huuuuuuuge upside, but just as much risk.  Asking for big dollars too.  I'm undecided how much I like this pick.
sam - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#273386) #
I'm sure the Jays will have reached some sort of pre-draft agreement with Bickford.
Sherrystar - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#273387) #
You mean like the rumoured deal the Jays had with Tyler Beede?
sam - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#273390) #
Certainly a fair comment, however, I might suggest that this is a very different situation. The Beede draft was under different rules, Beede was drafted much later in the first round where he was graded out, whereas I doubt many teams had a top 10 grade on Bickford. Beede's commitment to Vanderbilt--a notoriously difficult school to dissuade prospects from was firm. Bickford is committed Cal-State Fullerton, which is a baseball powerhouse, but not the same school in terms of pull.
sam - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#273391) #
Brian Parker says "they've looked into it" and are confident he'll sign.
metafour - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#273392) #
Earlier today one of the major writers (cant remember who) suggested that Bickford's big asking price was a ploy to scare other teams away and that it likely meant he had a pre-draft deal with some team.  The Jays were linked as having liked Bickford weeks ago.  Fair to assume that we could have a deal here.
hypobole - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#273393) #
Bickford seems almost the polar opposite of Deck McGuire. McGuire was considered safe,low upside quick to the majors with multiple average pitches, but none plus.

uglyone - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#273394) #
So he's kind of a Noah Syndergaard type?
Mike Forbes - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#273395) #
The more I read about Bickford, the more I like the pick. Should be a fun guy to watch develop over the next few years.
metafour - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#273396) #
Syndergaard would be a good comparison, except his fastball is more similar to Sanchez's.
sam - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#273397) #
Ya, Syndergaard and Sanchez would be good comps. It would be a stretch though to suggest he has the makings of even average secondary offerings at the moment. Sanchez had a plus curveball out of high school. But you get these kids young and let your development guys teach and instruct and you hope they develop something. The point Parker makes about Bickford is he possesses a true plus fastball and that's half the battle there. It's a great power arm and one you'll hear great velocity from down the line.
metafour - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#273398) #
Here it is:

" Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter) isn't sure if the Royals have a deal worked out with Phil Bickford but he's certain that some team does. The right-hander's adviser kept him from talking to club executives this week."

katman - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#273399) #
Clinton Hollon
Rank: 86
Woodford County HS (Ky.), Senior
Height: 6'1", Weight: 195
Position: RHP/OF
DOB: 12/24/1994
Bats: R, Throws: R
Commitment: Kentucky

Scouting Grades* (present/future): Fastball: 6/7 | Curve: 3/5 | Slider: 4/5 | Changeup: 4/5 | Control: 4/5 | Overall: 4/5

The Kentucky high school product, while not the biggest guy in the world, has some serious arm strength. He can get his fastball up to the mid-90s with a decent breaking ball to go with it. He even shows some feel for a changeup, giving him the chance to have a full repertoire of at least Major League average pitches.

Hollon has a similar frame to Jeremy Guthrie, and that might be his ceiling. More than anything, though, he needed to show he was healthy this spring after leaving the East Coast Pro Showcase with forearm tendinitis and not pitching for the rest of the summer.

He was doing just that, throwing well during the regular season in Kentucky, perhaps allowing him to quietly climb back up Draft boards.


Paul D - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#273400) #
Looks like the Jays took another high school pitcher.

Hollon, Clinton

Form mlb.com

<i>The Kentucky high school product, while not the biggest guy in the world, has some serious arm strength. He can get his fastball up to the mid-90s with a decent breaking ball to go with it. He even shows some feel for a changeup, giving him the chance to have a full repertoire of at least Major League average pitches. Hollon has a similar frame to Jeremy Guthrie, and that might be his ceiling. More than anything, though, he needed to show he was healthy this spring after leaving the East Coast Pro Showcase with forearm tendinitis and not pitching for the rest of the summer. He was doing just that, throwing well during the regular season in Kentucky, perhaps allowing him to quietly climb back up Draft boards.</i>
sam - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#273401) #
I'm going to say I was 1.5/2 in my predictions/wants for the Jays. I noted at length the SoCal HS prospect in my write up and indicated Hollon in second round. Hollon will be a difficult sign, but I imagine he will sign. He's had some arm issues in the past. He's going to throw hard and he looks to be able to throw the breaking ball as well. In three years from now, the Jays could have the two hardest throwers in the this draft with Bickford and Hollon. The Jays should be set up nicely as well to take another difficult sign with their third rounder.
metafour - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#273402) #
Hollon will be a difficult sign, but I imagine he will sign

Actually, he is being described as a potentially easy sign with some hinting that this may be a pre-draft deal (ie: underslot).  Small pitcher with injury history...he's probably not wanting to risk getting hurt in college.
metafour - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#273403) #
John Manuel @johnmanuelba 30m

Second round has had some HS pitchers moving up who must be cutting deals with Hollon at 47, Andrew Church at 48 #mlbdraft

christaylor - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#273404) #
I'm probably just too Billy Beane circa 2002, but I can't say I am a fan of picks spent on HS pitchers... but here's hoping.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#273406) #
Fair play. I thought he would go to Kentucky and come out in the first round much like Sonny Gray did a few years back.
Thomas - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#273407) #
Consider yourself quite lucky if you didn't see Hollon's twitter account before he deleted it earlier this evening.
John Northey - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#273408) #
Dare I ask why Hollon's twitter was deleted?  Was it stuff that was 'typical boy with too much money not enough brains' stuff or 'oh crap not Toronto' stuff?
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#273409) #
Consider yourself quite lucky if you didn't see Hollon's twitter account before he deleted it earlier this evening.

Spill it.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#273411) #
Indeed, do share?
robertdudek - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:00 AM EDT (#273412) #
It's generally a bad idea to draft high school pitchers in the first two rounds and there are two main reasons for this:

1) The distance between almost all high school pitchers and a polished major league pitcher is so great that there isn't much a very large difference in the probability of reaching the majors between a mid-first rounder and a fourth rounder.

2) The progress of a pitcher depends mostly on the continued health of his arm (which is completely unknown at the time of the draft) and what he has between the ears (which is somewhat known but almost never discussed on draft day).

That's why I laugh when I hear this or that high school pitcher has this or that ceiling: what was Greg Maddux's "ceiling" when he was 18?" Was there a single scout who said his ceiling was "one of the all time greatest" or name one scout at draft time who claimed R.A.Dickey's "ceiling" was Cy Young winner?

"Ceiling" is the most absurd concept in baseball prospecting.
Thomas - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 07:41 AM EDT (#273413) #
The tweets in question in question are definitely not appropriate to be posted on here. I'm trying to determine if there's somewhere they have been stored online.

It's not Josh Sale bad, but it doesn't make me think highly of the kid.
John Northey - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#273414) #
So basically he has a potty mouth and (I'm guessing) posted stuff that was misogynistic in nature.  So he is an immature kid who has more money than brains.  Probably a good definition of most pro athletes.
85bluejay - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#273415) #
Pleasantly surprised by both jays picks - even if they become the next Colt Griffin, high upside picks are what I like & what's needed to succeed in this division - will take any day over the  McGuire/Jenkins/Cooper type - Yes, the bust rate is high but the potential reward justifies these risk - taking my limited knowledge into consideration, the Jays didn't pass up any guys that I really liked as in previous drafts such as Sale/Guerrieri

Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#273416) #
What Robert said.  For myself, I would run a hundred miles away from a high school pitcher with arm issues. 

The players I liked at #10 were McGuire and Dominic Smith. 

John Northey - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#273418) #
When it comes to the draft I say go for the highest potential you can.  That means, normally, high school players who have yet to fill out.  These two seem to fit that high risk, high reward profile so I'm good.  Always get nervous about high school pitchers though as various studies showed that they are higher risk than most.  However, again, the reward is also potentially amazing.  It all depends how much you trust the scouts who said these two have the ability to be really good.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#273419) #
It is truly impressive how close Sam came to calling it in the previous thread. Moreover his theory, that there may be no one at #10 that the Jays see worth $3million is one that would make sense and may be accurate (or may not, RG is saying Bickford may need more than slot to sign).

I don't know enough about any of these guys to know whether it was a good or a bad draft given who was available at the time, which seems the best measure. I hear some names being floated for a few days like Meadows and McGuire, but have no idea how good they'd be. I do know however, that the last thing this organization or fanbase wants to see is a return to the 2002 dogmatic boycotting of prep players or pitchers with high picks. That worked well.
Paul D - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#273421) #
What time does Day 2 start?

I've found mlb.com to be pretty poor when it comes to getting updates on the draft.
bpoz - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#273423) #
I am with John N. Go for the high upside. It is hard to win it all.
1993 C Carpenter, 1995 R Halladay. So luck happens. My memory failed me as I was sure that Halladay was drafted in 1993.
If memory does not fail me then in 1983 we drafted David Wells & J Key. Luck again.

So it happens. AA is loading up with chances. I believe this helps, I also believe that our future #1 star SP is hiding somewhere in the system. This happens to me all the time.
Wildrose - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#273426) #
It's generally a bad idea to draft high school pitchers in the first two rounds and there are two main reasons for this:

I guess they should send supplemental first rounder Aaron Sanchez back to Barstow High School then? I mean that would be their argument about taking so many high school pitchers, try to get a top of the rotation starter out of the draft verses free agency ( and yes the Aaron Sanchez story is not quite written yet).

I actually agree with Robert, the attrition rate for high school pitchers is abysmal. In fact, out of the four major North American sports the baseball draft has the highest degree of uncertainty, so for me I'm more interested in the process, rather than the actual players taken.

We now have a track record for AA since 2010, so we can see what trends are developing. Here's how it breaks down for the first 3 rounds before the rest of today's draft ( I chose this as a cut-off for sake of brevity);

- 4 college pitchers

- 14  high school hurlers

-  8 high school position players ( I included JUCO player Marcus Knecht in this group)

They certainly haven't  focussed on college position players high in the draft.

Thoughts?





sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#273427) #
The drafting should start at one eastern time today
John Northey - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#273428) #
Rounds 3-10 will be streamed live on mlb.com at 12:30 eastern (starting with a preview show).

So, for the Jays in their history how have they done?  I use WAR btw because it is a simple and quick method to split players - if a guy doesn't reach 10 WAR odds are he wasn't more than you'd get off the medium free agent pile, 20+ WAR if he was a regular all-star.  40+ puts you into a HOF argument.  60+ makes you a strong HOF candidate.
  1. 64 players drafted, 1 over 40 WAR (Roy Halladay at 64.6), 2 in the 30's, 5 in the 20's and one in the 10's.  Total of 35 have made it to the majors.
  2. 42 players drafted, 1 over 40 WAR (David Wells at 53.6), 1 in the 10's (Derek Bell).  16 made it to the majors.  Ick.
  3. 40 players drafted, 2 over 40 WAR (John Olerud at 58 & Jimmy Key at 49.6), 2 in the 10's.  14 made it to the majors.
  4. 37 players drafted (same for almost all rounds to #50), none reached 10 WAR (Casey Janssen #1 at 7), 9 made it to the majors.
  5. 1 over 40 WAR (Dave Stieb 57.2), 1 in the 30's, 1 in the 20's, 1 in the 10's.  12 made it to the majors.
  6. 7 made it to the majors, none reached 5 WAR (Pat Borders at 3.8 is the best)
  7. 1 over 20 WAR, 10 reached the majors.
  8. 4 made it, none reached 1 WAR
  9. 1 over 30 WAR, 8 reached the majors
  10. 7 reached the majors, none over 10 WAR
  11. 7 reached, none over 3 WAR
  12. 2 reached, one over 10 WAR (signed elsewhere later)
  13. 1 over 20 WAR (didn't sign here though), another over 10, 5 reached
  14. 4 reached, none over 10 WAR
  15. 4 reached, none over 4 WAR
  16. 3 reached, none over 1 WAR
  17. 3 reached, 1 over 10 WAR
  18. 3 reached, none over 6 WAR
  19. 2 reached
  20. 1 over 40 WAR (Jeff Kent at 55.2), 3 reached
  21. 3 reached
  22. 5 reached
  23. 1 reached (barely, 6 PA in 2 games)
  24. 3 reached
  25. 2 reached, 1 over 10 WAR (signed elsewhere)
  26. 1 reached
  27. 1 over 10 WAR (signed elsewhere Mike Henneman), 3 reached
  28. 1 over 30 WAR (Woody Williams), 3 reached
  29. 1 reached
  30. 2 reached
  31. 1 reached (didn't sign here)
  32. 1 reached
  33. 1 over 30 WAR (Did not sign, Orlando Hudson) 2 reached
  34. 1 reached
  35. no one reached
  36. 1 over 10 WAR (didn't sign - Jim Abbott)
  37. 2 reached
  38. 1 reached
  39. no one
  40. no one
  41. no one
  42. 1 reached
  43. 1 over 30 WAR (Orlando Hudson) 2 reached
  44. 1 over 20 WAR (Scott Erickson didn't sign), 1 reached
  45. 1 over 10 WAR (Darren Lewis didn't sign), 3 reached
  46. 2 reached
  47. no one
  48. 1 reached
  49. 1 reached
  50. 1 reached
  51. no one
  52. 1 reached
  53. no one
  54. 2 reached
  55. no one
  56. 2 reached
  57. 1 reached
  58. 2 reached
  59.  to #75 - total of 2 reached the majors.
So after the 20th round (Jeff Kent) the only draftees the Jays had who were worth the effort were Hudson, Erickson, Abbott, Williams, Henneman and Lewis.  6 total over 36 drafts, 

HOVG or HOF calibre drafted here were Halladay (1), Wells (2), Olerud (3), Key (3), Stieb (5) and Kent (20).  6 greats, 4 in the first 3 rounds plus a converted outfielder and a surprise in Kent.  So if that is what you want from the draft then the first 3 round are what counts, at least in Jays history.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#273430) #
The Jays will have one more "protected" pick here in the third round.  Look for the Jays to draft another high end tools/potential difficult sign.  It wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see a multi-sport guy here.  We could then see some punting with the money saved either going to the third round pick or to some of the guys who slip to rounds 11-40 due to signability. 
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#273431) #
If you look at the population of high school pitchers drafted in the first round, the number who have turned out to be top-drawer (Stieb, Key, Halladay level say) is very, very low- much lower than for collegiate middle infielders. 

If you look at the top pitchers by WAR, 50 WAR plus, in the draft era up to 2009- you have Clemens (college), Maddux (2nd round high school), Johnson (college), Schilling (2nd round high school), Glavine (2nd round high school), Smoltz (22nd round high school), Cone (3rd round, high school), Tanana (1st round high school), Finley (1st round high school), Saberhagen (19th round high school), Stieb (5th round high school).  Hershiser (17th round high school), Wells (3rd round, high school), Appier (1st round, high school). 

If you add in Halladay and Dwight Gooden, you have 5 top-drawer 1st round high school pitchers drafted over the lifetime of the draft. A typical year has 7-10 high school pitchers, so your chances of getting a top-drawer starter out of the whole thing is probably in the 2-4% range.  It is not much different in the 2nd round so far.    The statistics are quite different for collegiate players and for high school position players (at the top drawer level).  It is much easier to spot a high school player who has a decent chance to be a top drawer position player. 

Moe - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#273433) #
Not much to say beyond what has already been said. Not a fan of Bickford and even less of Hollon. I fail to see why the Jays didn't pick Shipley if they wanted to go HS picher (which I disagree with). Based on the little I know, would have gone with McGuire although HS C are also risky.

One thing so: the 1st round was very pitching heavy, so it was probably hard to avoid pitching with the first pick. The second one I understand much less. Why draft someone with massive injury risk and questionable dynamics this high?

I hope that there were some savings with these guys that can then be used in later rounds. Basically play a numbers game and draft 5-6 similar guys for similar money.
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#273434) #
Shipley is a college pitcher.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#273435) #
Quickly, some names to potentially watch out for here with the third rounder:

Jake Brentz LHP HS Missouri
Power lefty, up to 97mph this spring.  Looks to me a lot like Matt Moore.
Cord Sandberg OF HS Florida
Two sport star.  Looks the part of corner outfielder.  Solid tools, will need time.
Chris Okey C HS Florida
Small, but nice looking catching prospect.  Plays the game with his hands. 
Karston Whitson RHP Florida
Former first rounder who has been hurt this spring.  Has upside and front line stuff when healthy. 
Ivan Wilson OF HS Louisiana
Projectable OF with Power, arm, speed combo

There are Canadians in this draft.  Cal Quantrill will get drafted at some point, however, he has a very strong commit to Stanford.  Tyler O'Neill also should be selected today.


jester00 - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#273436) #
2 Elk Grove HS bats should be on the radar today as well.  Rowdy Tellez (absolute monster power but destined for 1B, with average defense best case) and Dom Nunez (catcher)
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#273437) #
Jester00,

I quite like Tellez and would appreciate the departure on the Jays part in selecting a player like him.  However, I don't see Tellez fitting with what the Jays do here in the draft.

uglyone - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#273438) #
I gotta say I like those picks from yesterday. True high-upside guys, who are already throwing upper 90s in their teens. The first guy a late riser, meaning he might have been underrated going in, and the 2nd guy was projected very high before some injury troubles. I know we all want to see some impact bats drafted but I really can't complain about those two picks. I know some people are wary about high school arms, but you don't get Kershaw, Wainright, Halladay, Sabathia, J.Johnson if you ignore HS arms.

These guys could both easily bust, of course, but most prospects bust.
Moe - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#273439) #
Yet another HS pitcher...
92-93 - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#273440) #
Front offices can't win. Draft McGuire, and everybody whines about his ceiling. Draft Bickford, and everybody whines about the probability of that arm providing MLB value. I'm still mad we passed up Porcello for Arencibia.
Moe - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#273442) #
Patrick Murphy already had Tommy John surgery.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/preps/articles/20130404elbow-rehab-timing-works-best-chandler-hamilton-baseball-pitcher-patrick-murphy.html
damos - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#273443) #
@conorglassey 4m

I'm not on this draft so far for the #BlueJays. Thought Bickford was a little high, Hollon scares me with size/effort, now a TJ guy?

sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#273444) #
Name did not register here.  The Jays love Blake Crosby--the area scout there and they've gone after a few Oregon commits in the past.  I've got to assume this kid is signable and we might see some more risks with the fourth through tenth round picks. 
85bluejay - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#273447) #
Jays may be saving money for a shot at somebody like Cal Quantrill - if the 3rd. guy signs cheap, then I really like the gamble - patience is required
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#273448) #
Todd Gold:
WOW! Patrick Murphy missed his senior season with a torn UCL. Legit talent though, assumed he'd go to Oregon.

David Rawnsley:
A VERY interesting pick in Patrick Murphy, as he missed all season with TJ surgery. He would have been an even higher pick if healthy. Jonathan Mayo doesn't know who he is, though.

Todd Gold:
I saw him his junior year up to 92 with a hammer curve, good body. Looked like he was going to be one of the top AZ prospects for this class before the injury.
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#273449) #
PATRICK MURPHY, rhp, Hamilton HS, Chandler
Murphy, a long, loose, projectable righthander, easily ranked as the top prep arm in Arizona for the 2013 draft until hurting his pitching elbow during the 2012 season and undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer. He hasn’t pitched since, although he is back throwing and there is a chance he might throw a bullpen or two prior to the draft. If he does, and flashes any semblance of the raw stuff that he featured as a junior at Hamilton High, notably a 92-mph fastball and the makings of an impressive curve, then it’s entirely possible a team could take a stab at Murphy in the top 10 rounds—though it’s highly unlikely he would ever go as early as the second to fourth rounds, where he projected prior to his injury. Murphy has committed to Oregon, and that appears to be his more-likely option in the short term, especially since he has been assured all along by Ducks officials that his scholarship offer will be honored.

WILD CARD: Patrick Murphy, rhp, Hamilton HS, Chandler. Had Murphy not undergone Tommy John surgery last summer, which cost him his senior season at Hamilton High, he would in all probability have been in the mix to go as early as the second round. If, as anticipated, he has a chance to work out for scouts prior to the draft and shows signs of his former low-90s velocity, it’s possible a team could take a flier on him and pop him with an early-round pick.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#273450) #
Thanks for passing this along metafour.  For those that don't know those two names are Perfect Game people. 
Gerry - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#273452) #
From that article it appears that Murphy is about a year since his TJ surgery.  The Jays will no doubt be telling him he would get better rehab with them rather than Oregon.
jester00 - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#273453) #
Yes, thanks metafour for the info.  Always appreciated.
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#273455) #
He is already throwing bullpen sessions Gerry.  Being that this was the first pick after a night of phone calls, the deal has likely already been agreed to.  The Jays are proving to be as ballsy as they get.  This has started to become a pattern: drafting talented HS pitchers who fall under the radar because of injury.  Last year it was Ryan Borucki, before that there was Mark Biggs, now we've got this kid and even Clinton Hollon who sat the start of his SR season because of injury.
85bluejay - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#273456) #
When Baseball America is not excited about your draft, I usually take that as a hopeful sign
uglyone - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#273457) #
Just a quick and dirty fangraphs WAR analysis of the top-WAR pitchers of the past 3 seasons....


1. J.Verlander (30): 16.2war - #2 '04, College
2. C.Kershaw (25): 14.3war - #7 '06, High School
3. C.Lee (34): 13.8 - 4th Round '00, College
4. F.Hernandez (27): 13.3 - IFA
5. C.Sabathia (33): 12.8 - #20 '98, High School
6. D.Fister (29): 11.1 - 7th round '06, College
7. A.Sanchez (29): 10.6 - IFA
8. J.Shields (31): 10.4 - 16th round '00, High School
9. M.Scherzer (28): 10.0 - #11 '06, College
10. R.Halladay (36): 9.9 - #17 '95, High School
11. C.Hamels (29): 9.8 - #17 '02, High School
12. D.Price (27): 9.7 - #1 '07, College
13. G.Gonzalez (27): 9.4 - #38 '04, High School
14. J.Weaver (30): 9.2 - #12 '04, College
15. M.Bumgarner (23): 9.1 - #10 '07, High School
16. Z.Greinke (29): 9.0 - #6 '02, High School
17. J.Peavy (32): 9.0 - 15th round '99, High School
18. C.J.Wilson (32): 8.7 - 5th round '01, College
19. M.Cain (28): 8.7 - #25 '02, High School
20. J.Lester (29): 8.5 - 2nd round '02, High School
21. J.Zimmerman (27): 8.4 - 2nd round '07, College
22. I.Kennedy (28): 8.4 - #21 '06, College
23. D.Haren (32): 8.1 - 2nd round '01, College
24. D.Holland (26): 8.0 - 25th round '06, College
25. M.Harrison (27): 7.9 - 3rd round '03, High School
26. J.Cueto (27): 7.9 - IFA
27. C.Sale (24): 7.9 - #13 '10, College
28. J.Masterson (28): 7.8 - 2nd round '06, College
29. M.Latos (25): 7.6 - 11th round '06, College
30. R.Dickey (38): 7.4 - #18 '96, College
31. B.McCarthu (29): 7.4 - 17th round '02, College
32. H.Kuroda (38): 7.3 - IFA
33. B.Colon (40): 6.9 - IFA
34. R.Nolasco (30): 6.8 - 4th round '01, High School
35. E.Jackson (29): 6.7 - 6th round '01, High School
36. J.Beckett (33): 6.5 - #2 '99, High School
37. J.Garcia (26): 6.5 - 22nd round '05, High School
38. T.Hudson (37): 6.5 - 6th round '97, College
39. R.Dempster (36): 6.4 - 3rd round '95, High School
40. M.Garza (29): 6.3 - #25 '05, College
41. R.Porcello (24): 6.3 - #27 '07, High School
42. T.Cahill (25): 6.0 - 2nd round '06, High School
43. H.Bailey (27): 6.0 - #7 '04, High School
44. K.Lohse (34): 5.9 - 29th round '96, College
45. Y.Gallardo (27): 5.8 - 2nd round '04, High School
46. M.Buerhle (34): 5.7 - 38th round '98, College
47. G.Floyd (30): 5.7 - #4 '01, High School
48. B.Morrow (28): 5.6 - #5 '06, College
49. A.J.Burnett (36): 5.5 - 8th round '95, High School
50. T.Lincecum (28): 5.4 - #10 '06, College

Top-50 fWAR breakdown:

Highschool: 23
College: 22
IFA: 5

Top-20 fWAR breakdown:

Highschool: 11
College: 7
IFA: 2

Top-10 fWAR breakdown:

Highschool: 4
College: 4
IFA: 2

And if I'm not mistaken more college arms are drafted than high school arms.....maybe even many more.


I think generally speaking the fear of drafting High School pitching might be overrated.



sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#273459) #
I agree somewhat 85bluejay.  Without any knowledge of what's going on behind the scenes, I think the Jays are approaching this draft as though they'll get someone in rounds 11-40 with big bonus demands.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#273462) #
Caliis knows nothing about Smith.  Perfect Game had him up to 93mph in the spring.
jester00 - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#273463) #
metafour, got anything on Evan Smith?
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#273464) #
PROSPECT ON THE RISE: Evan Smith, lhp, Mary G. Montgomery HS, Semmes. With a fastball that topped in the high-80s last summer, Smith did not rank among Alabama’s 10 best high-school prospects in the 2013 draft class entering his senior year, but the 6-foot-5 lefthander has added 4-5 mph in velocity while almost every one of the state’s top-ranked prep players has regressed to some degree—for any number of reasons. If enough clubs are scared off by right-hander Keegan Thompson’s stated desire to attend college at Auburn, Smith could conceivably surface as the first pick from the state’s high-school ranks.


AllanSimpson:
Evan Smith was a fast riser in Alabama. We had him as No. 2 HS in state, even though the panel was stumped

Frankie Piliere:
Evan Smith - very interesting. We just had him 88-93 last week at W. Memorial Day

metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#273466) #
John Manuel ‏@johnmanuelba 3m
Super raw Alabama HS LHP Evan Smith to Toronto. Jays will have a well stocked 2014 GCL roster. Smith touched 92 this spring, 6-5, good body

John Manuel ‏@johnmanuelba 2m
Evan Smith was at East Coast Pro Showcase last summer, is young, 17; has shown hand speed. velo jumped this spring. very raw
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#273467) #
FWIW, I would have taken Porcello instead of Arencibia and said so (loudly) on draft day.  Different talent level altogether, and the issue was money.

Porcello has not yet turned out to be a top-drawer starter, but has turned out to be a better player than Arencibia. He was also very developed for a high-school pitcher.  In Bickford's case, he has 1 pitch apparently- a good fastball that he can locate.  That's a very good start, but not nearly enough to be a major league pitcher.  He's 17 and obviously young enough to learn other pitches starting (likely) with the change. 



85bluejay - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#273469) #
I was thinking last year when the Jays punted rds. 4-10, why not punt it with fringe HS picks especially if you find guys who have no interest in school/financial reason even if you pay a little more, somebody may suddenly blossom.
Gerry - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#273470) #
I wonder what percentage of the Jays draft picks have makeup that is off the charts?
TheBunk - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#273471) #
Classic AA draft so far. Regardless of long term results, I love the strategy.
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#273472) #
It is funny.  The club seems to believe that middle infielders are vastly less important than pitchers in developing an organization.  They need to get over that.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#273473) #
Metafour, thank you again for the info on these guys!
rfan8 - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#273477) #

I think they've said that they think they can use Ps to acquire position players.

 

As far as drafting P vs. Hitters, the Jays seems to be better at developing Ps than hitters.  Could be who they're drafting of course.

Impossibles - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#273479) #
I so want some batters to be excited about.
Gerry - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#273480) #

In my opinion the Jays organization has shown an ability to develop pitchers.  The organization has been less successful in developing hitters.  If this is accepted within the halls of the RC then it makes sense to select more pitchers as the organization will have a better chance to develop value from those picks.

The only hitters on the Jays roster who were developed by them are JPA and Lind.  As an organization, they would also have to try and fix the hitter development issue.

Gerry - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#273481) #
Round 5 coming up....this is where the senior drafting strategy kicked in last year.
katman - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#273484) #
I agree with Mike. If your middle infielders suck, so will your pitchers. 2013 Jays are Exhibit A.
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#273489) #
5th round pick LHP Daniel Lietz out of JUCO

After going undrafted out of high school last year, Lietz jumped onto Draft boards this spring when he showed a sharp increase in fastball velocity. His fastball mostly sat in the mid-80s a year ago, but after spending a winter in the weight room, Leitz throws in the upper-80s to low-90s. He is listed at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds and scouts think he may have room to get even stronger. Lietz also throws a slider, changeup, splitter and curveball. His slider and changeup both have the potential to be Major League-average offerings. Lietz isn't afraid to pitch to contact with his fastball and has a good feel for pitching.
ayjackson - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#273492) #
So has a strategy emerged here yet? Is everyone below slot?
smcs - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#273493) #
So has a strategy emerged here yet? Is everyone below slot?

Young pitchers that are late bloomers or who have been injured recently?
finch - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#273494) #
I think it's all out on pitchers in the early rounds because of the bats they either drafted the past couple years and/or the international signings. All those guys will need ABs. I'm not surprised it's ALL pitchers thus far.

And maybe AA has found the next market inefficiency...the talent you get back for trading pitchers.
Forkball - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#273495) #
Mike (Toronto)

What do you think the Jays are thinking with this draft? drafting a hard sign and reach on first two picks and now a TJ guy?

Klaw   (2:09 PM)

I believe the two overdrafts were to pay Bickford at 10.

Moe - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#273497) #
"I believe the two overdrafts were to pay Bickford at 10."

How can Bickford be above slot? He was not in the conversation that high (for the most part) and I didn't get the vibe that this was for signability reasons? I thought the Jays saved a little on him to use in later rounds on players that might need a little more money than slot.
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#273498) #
From 2002 to 2010, the Jays drafted 8 position players and 10 pitchers in the first round.  The position players included Aaron Hill, Travis Snider and Arencibia.  The pitchers included Ricky Romero, Chad Jenkins and Brett Cecil.   Several pitchers who were drafted in 2010 look like they might be good (Sanchez and Syndergaard ) but they are both years away.

None of the Blue Jay picks in the 2nd round during that same period have amounted to anything yet (pitchers- Bush, Banks or position players- Eiland, Thigpen, Tolisano).  The 3rd round produced Marcum and Lind from that same time, with Marisnick still a question mark.  There have been more 3rd round pitching picks who did not succeed than 3rd round position players (Maureau, Farina, Danny Hill, Leibel).

In my view, the development record of pitchers is slightly better, but much of it has to do with the fact that the club has for the last 10 years spent proportionately more resources (high draft picks) on pitching than is warranted.  This has been a complaint of mine going back to the Ricciardi era.



sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#273499) #
If the Jays have to go overslot to sign Bickford, I don't particularly like it.  I don't get how you can value a high school arm with one pitch at $3 million plus.  He hasn't really shown the makings of any plus secondary offerings either. 
TamRa - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#273502) #
I understand and approve of the "best player available" plan but...are we just going to give up on developing hitters?



PeteMoss - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#273503) #
I heard Keith Law and Callis talking about him on the Keith Law podcast last week. They said he's got the kind of arm to be upper 90s/100 mph. Basically sounds like a guy who's got a giant arm and the Jays hope they can develop him.
John Northey - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#273505) #
So, what round do we first see the Jays draft a hitter?  Round 7 will be my bet - lucky #7. 

Seems last year was build up cash to sign guys, this year is draft pitchers who might have something that holds them down (injuries) thus makes them cheaper but with a higher ceiling than otherwise. 

sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#273507) #
One development strategy, employed by the San Francisco giants in the past, is you draft pitchers and pollute your system with high ceiling pitchers.  If a top hitter falls to you in the draft, or there's a can't miss hitting prospect you draft him.  Otherwise, you trade those pitchers for established hitters.  The international market is also available to sign young hitting prospects. 
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#273510) #
That is an oversimplification.  Some years the Giants didn't draft a 1st rounder at all.  Cain was a 1st rounder in 2002, Lincecum in 2006 and Bumgarner in 2007.  On the current club, Posey, Crawford, Belt and Noonan were all high position player drafts.  One year, they didn't draft in the 1st round and then spent extra bucks on Edgar Martinez-Esteve in the 2nd round. 

It's funny, but for all that, the Giants are now stronger on offence than in the pitching department.  The key player in the end was Posey, and the club's willingness to spend the money necessary to sign him. 

sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#273513) #
Indeed it is.  Team's usually don't follow a regimented policy, however, the Giants were held as an example of a club that maintained a draft HS pitching policy through the moneyball years. 
Wildrose - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#273516) #
"It is funny. The club seems to believe that middle infielders are vastly less important than pitchers in developing an organization. They need to get over that."

This too though is a oversimplication. I mean as Sam points out the team does utilize the Latin market to obtain middle infielders, in fact they did sign 4 high profile shortstops in 2012, not to mention the millions spent on Hechavarria. In terms of acquiring guys on the corner they seem to like getting them through either trades or free agency.

They do seem to see though the amateur draft mainly as a means to obtain pitching. The local media should pursue this angle a little more. We'll see if it works...
Impossibles - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#273517) #
I'm going to have to reserve judgement to see how things pan out with signings.

I have to think AA has got something planned here...

Possibly he's buying a bunch of cheap lottery tickets in the 1st 10 rounds, then he has pool allocation money to play with for after (any player signed for over $100k counts against the pool). Then after 10 they go after all guys who dropped do to signability?

Last year AA spent nearly every dime he could without getting penalized draft picks (with $340!). I can't see this not being the case again.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#273518) #
Keep in mind this is Brian Parker's first draft.  He, more than AA, probably has more to do with what's going on.
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#273520) #
Hechavarria is one, Wildrose.  Who else?  It is strange when the club basically has Jose Reyes and Christian Lopes as the only middle infielders of any note in the organization for the club to not draft any.  It has been a chronic problem in the organization- the barebones IFA strategy has not worked so well. 
TheBunk - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#273521) #
Barebones IFA strategy?
ayjackson - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#273522) #
On the Bickford asking price, I'm recalling reports/speculation that Bickford's advisors were scaring teams off with a high asking price because they had a pre-draft deal with an unknown team. At the time, they were speculating Royals in the 2nd round as an overslot. But maybe it's the Jays in the first as an underslot?
TheBunk - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#273523) #
Richard Urena, Franklin Barreto(SS/CF), Dawel Lugo from the last couple of years. They also had a deal set up with another high profile player which fell through because of a failed medical.
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#273524) #
Hechavarria was not exactly a Grade A prospect ever.  Most good organizations draft a lot of middle infielders on the basis that some will stick there and some will move rightward on the defensive spectrum. 

Pitching is somewhere between 35 and 40 percent of the game, and if one restricts the draft to that 35-40 percent, flexibility (and bargaining power) is ultimately lost.


Moe - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#273525) #
I just can't see Bickford having such a high asking price. He was not thought to be a high first round option and his college commitment is Cal State Fullerton. Going there would be much more risky for him then Appel returning to Stanford or even Beede going to Vanderbilt. If he doesn't develop a second pitch, he would not go 1st round next time around. Of course, players had bad advisors before.
Moe - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#273526) #
I could see it making sense to only develop pitchers and then trade them if you found the holy grail of pitcher development. But Jays pitchers are so frequently injured that I doubt that the Jays know so much more about pitching than other teams. If Tampa did that, it would make more sense.

Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#273527) #
Fair enough, thebunk.  I still don't agree with the drafting strategy of "all pitchers, all the time", but I suppose if you are going to use the IFA market exclusively for position players and spend comparable $ there, it isn't an impossibly poor strategy.  Just one that limits one's options unnecessarily.
Wildrose - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#273528) #
Mike we're talking past each other. I'm looking for trends developed under AA, not Ricciardi.

Here's a partial list of middle infielders signed by the AA regime ( many so young it's hard to assess their ultimate potential ) from Latin America.

2012 Richard Urema $725,000
2012 Franklin Barreto $ 1.45
2012 Luis Castro ?
2012 Rangel Remrizi $ 105,000
2011 Dawel Lugo $ 1,300,00
2010 Hechavarria $ 10,000,000

So yes , they've spent substantial coin on Latin middle infielders. Too early to assess like a lot of AA developmental plans as to its efficacy.




smcs - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#273529) #
Even though he was just drafted, Kendall Graveman has probably already been pencilled in to start next week.
Moe - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#273530) #
Do the Jays even have roster slots for all these pitchers? Now, 9 for 9 for pitchers...

I'm puzzled for whom they have to save money?


Wildrose - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#273532) #
To clarify Castro had his $ 800,000 contract voided after failing a physical.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#273533) #
Nearly the end here of the draft.  A few years ago, this organization drafted exclusively college players and didn't even have scouts cover the high school beat.  How the times have changed as the Jays are very close to drafting a pitcher with every pick here in the first ten rounds--the majority of which are high schoolers. 
Mike Green - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#273534) #
Who is left to be signed with that 11th round pick should unused slot money be left over?  Is there a promising middle infielder out there perchance?
Richard S.S. - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#273535) #

It's possible that in this year's International Free Agent non-Draft only position players are of interest to Toronto.   I don't know what/why Toronto does in this Draft, possibly neither do they. 

I think most of the top ten picks are slot or underslot, because from what I've heard indicates some of these picks were reaches.  I'd just like extra $$$$$$ to sign high upside 11-40.

Wildrose - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#273536) #
" I could see it making sense to only develop pitchers and then trade them if you found the holy grail of pitcher development. But Jays pitchers are so frequently injured that I doubt that the Jays know so much more about pitching than other teams. If Tampa did that, it would make more sense."

True enough. I had a good chuckle when I read this. They may feel though, with their army of scouts that they have a competitive advantage in finding young pitchers at the high school level, not particularly developing them.
sam - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#273537) #
Garrett Custons, enjoy your $1,000 and single at-bat, and politely get lost. 
ayjackson - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#273542) #
Perhaps there's some efficiency to be gained by focusing on primarily pitchers in one year and hitters in another? Perhaps they're just experimenting with strategies?
Mike Forbes - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#273543) #
I'm gonna volunteer to get drafted in the 10th round by the Jays next year, I think.
Gerry - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#273545) #
I believe there are 40 roster spots in Bluefield and in the GCL. In those leagues starting pitchers usually just go three or four innings so you can get through a lot of them.
John Northey - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#273547) #
9th round pick Chad Girodo has some info online. 6'1" 195 lbs senior (so very easy to sign).  He had a 6.70 ERA in his career so I figure he was signed to free up cash.

10th round pick Garrett Custons is also a senior and in the Air Force so he'll be super-easy to sign.  5'11" 200 lbs catcher.  333/406/532.  Might be useful as with all these pitchers you'll need a few catchers.
metafour - Friday, June 07 2013 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#273560) #
To add to the above IFA talk; the Jays have been linked as the leader to sign another top SS in this year's IFA market.  It definitely looks like they are trying to pop as many high upside South American middle infielders...of course these players being 16 years old will be really far away from the majors, if they ever get there.


7) Yeltsin Gudino, ss, Venezuela (video): When scouts grade out Gudino’s tools, there isn’t a 60 on his scouting report, but he’s a well-rounded player with success on the international circuit and strong baseball instincts. Gudino, who trains with Carlos Guillen, excelled at the 15U World Championship last August in Mexico and has continued to show an advanced hitting approach for his age. Gudino’s game will benefit from additional strength, which is a positive because there’s room to project more power and perhaps arm strength from his 6-foot, 150-pound body. He’s an average runner and a good fielder who projects to stay at shortstop. Oakland and Texas were tied to Gudino at one point, but now it looks like the Blue Jays are the leaders to sign him.

John Northey - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#273564) #
Y'know, they are talking of redoing the international free agent rules very soon.  They almost put in a draft and I could see MLB trying to adjust the other rules if someone games the system.  Tampa last year blew past the limit by a bit (15% allowed, they were near 30%) and now are limited to $250k bonuses for any one player this year.  If a team really wanted to game it, then go nuts and sign every last player you can and shoot 200% over the limit, accept the 100% penalty (they would've paid more than that total under the old wide open free agent rules) and live with a year where you cannot sign anyone of note.  If you could sign two to three times as many top players in one year as you could ever hope to otherwise, and if it is a good year then it would be well worth it.  Especially if the rules might change in the next year or two and you'd not have as simple a method to shoot ahead of the competition.  Ideally you'd have deals lined up ahead of time so other teams cannot react fast enough - IE: on the first day you sign the top 5 players available and leave the other clubs gasping.
China fan - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 04:30 AM EDT (#273569) #
"....the club has for the last 10 years spent proportionately more resources (high draft picks) on pitching than is warranted...."

Where's the logic in this? The Jays shouldn't be drafting by position. They should draft the best prospects, the ones who are most likely to develop into MLB players. You develop their value, then trade strategically to fill the gaps. If the major-league team has a shortage in a particular position (middle infielders or whatever), you can always trade for them, or acquire them in other ways. If a team decides to draft a bunch of 18-year-old infielders because the MLB club has a shortage of infielders, that's a pretty good way to miss out on better prospects at other positions.
uglyone - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#273573) #
Nominal SS added in recent years:

Nolan (25)
Goins (25)
Pastornicky (23)
Hechavarria (23)
Burns (22)
Leblebijan (22)
Optiz (21)
Thon (21)
Pierre (21)
Lopes (20)
Guerrero (20)
Lugo (18)
Barretto (18)
Urena (17)
hypobole - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#273574) #
The Jays strategy of drafting pitching and signing young IFA SS's seems to make sense. An earlier post showed 45 of the top 50 starters were drafted. Only 4 were Latin IFA's, the other being Kuroda.

I checked FG and there are 18 qualified SS's this year with positive WAR. Only 9 were drafted, none after the 4th round. The other 9 were all Latin IFA's.

bpoz - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#273577) #
We had some discussion on games strategy in the pre draft thread.

What Beyonder said was interesting ie we had to punt round 4-10 to save money for Smoral. Yes that happened.
I also agree with Beyonder that if we had failed to sign Smoral, then the draft gets very weak because we drafted no talent in the punted rounds.

Honestly, IMO I am not smart enough to express/explain what this means. It is difficult.

BUT the Pirates followed the NO punting strategy. They signed everyone in rounds 1-10 except M Appel who was protected and 4th rounder John Thomas who was not.

So they got nothing for the 4th rounder and lost the budget.
Just for my satisfaction, please help me think this through.
1) I will say "obviously" they drafted Appel with no intention of signing him. He had to sign for his budgeted amount or less. It could not be much more. To get more you have to punt some of rounds 2-10. If you do not sign a player then the protected rounds choice & budget 1-3 go forward to 2013 and everything is lost on unsigned rounds 4-10 players.

Sorry if this has been explained before.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#273578) #
Well.  They can keep drafting exclusively pitchers, and the odds are pretty good that they'll keep being out of the playoffs for decades.  Players drafted as shortstops don't only become shortstops, they become third basemen (Mike Schmidt), second basemen (Aaron Hill) and centerfielders.  What do the successful franchises- the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Yankees, (and now the Red Sox and Rays) do?  They draft position players and pitchers, and almost invariably they spend somewhat more draft resources on position players than pitchers. 

I have to say that the club's record with the IFA market hasn't exactly been sterling in the last decade. 
sam - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#273585) #
Draft continues today. These picks all have a $100,000 value attached to them. Any bonuses above that will count against the overall pool. The Jays look to have set themselves up to select at least one or two of the guys who had some demands and fallen.
sam - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#273587) #
Brentz was a guy I had there in the third round. Came on the scene late, but shows clean arm action and top velocity. He will be a difficult sign I imagine here.
rfan8 - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#273588) #
Brentz here we go...
sam - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#273589) #
Curious that he was announced as a LF. His future is surely on the mound.
metafour - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#273590) #
Yes, tough sign...although they Jays must know a bit of something to make him the first pick after a full day off.
sam - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#273591) #
Another point, I don't see the Jays selecting Brentz here first without having reached out to him and representatives last night and getting some sort of assurance that he would sign for a pre-agreed to price. If Brentz wasn't going to come down, I imagine the Jays would have gone to the next guy on their board and asked him the same question. "We'll have X dollars here for you, will you sign?"
metafour - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#273592) #
Another point, I don't see the Jays selecting Brentz here first without having reached out to him and representatives last night and getting some sort of assurance that he would sign for a pre-agreed to price. If Brentz wasn't going to come down, I imagine the Jays would have gone to the next guy on their board and asked him the same question. "We'll have X dollars here for you, will you sign?"

That is pushing it considering that our 11th and 12th round picks last year were Grant Heyman and Ryan Kellogg, two HS'ers, and neither ended up signing.  I think they clearly make a push at Brentz and have some idea what he wants to sign, but realistically I think this may be a backup pick in case someone we drafted earlier doesn't sign...then we can divert funds and make a run at Brentz.
sam - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#273593) #
Money is lost if people early don't sign.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#273594) #
I was Listening to the "Talking Heads" on the MLB.COM broadcast the past two days.   After the Top 2 Short Stops were picked, they said it was a big step down to the rest of the group.   They also said it was a thin Middle Infield group.   That being said, what does the Team do for Day 3?   Of course, more pitchers.
scottt - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#273595) #
If someone over slot doesn't sign then.
metafour - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#273597) #
Yes, but if they were planning on signing someone over slot (like Bickford), and he declines the over-slot, only the slot money is lost...whatever amount you were offering over-slot is still there for you to give someone else.  Granted I dont see many obvious over-slot picks unlike last year.

For instance, if Matt Smoral had declined our $2 million offer last year, we'd only "lose" the slot value of his pick.  The giant over-slot amount we tacked onto that would have then gone to someone else...likely kids like Cole Irvin or Brandon Harris who were drafted really late but well regarded pre-draft.

metafour - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#273598) #
6. Tim Mayza, lhp, Millersville, Pa.: Has yet to put it all together
with secondary stuff, but has size (6-foot-3, 205 pounds), 91-93 mph
fastball, clean delivery.
Gerry - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#273599) #
Relax everyone, we have a SS. Tim Locastro is a junior from Ithica NY.
metafour - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#273602) #
Frankie Piliere:
Mayza is a sleeper. Very raw but 90-93 lefties don't grow on trees
metafour - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#273603) #
Relax everyone, we have a SS. Tim Locastro is a junior from Ithica NY.
Cant find much on Locastro yet, but he hit .436/.553/.663 this season for Ithaca with 22 walks to 9 strikeouts...and 27 HBP??
CeeBee - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#273607) #
"Cant find much on Locastro yet, but he hit .436/.553/.663 this season for Ithaca with 22 walks to 9 strikeouts...and 27 HBP??"
Whoohoo..... Our very own version of Ron Hunt? :)
China fan - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#273620) #
"....They can keep drafting exclusively pitchers, and the odds are pretty good that they'll keep being out of the playoffs for decades...."

Such an odd statement. The Jays don't draft pitchers "exclusively." And their decision to draft a lot of pitchers in recent years is certainly not the primary reason why they haven't been in the playoffs.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#273622) #
Their problem is who doesn't get signed.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, June 08 2013 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#273632) #

HS: 19; J1: 2; J2: 1; JR: 4; SR: 11; 5S: 2.

RHP: 12; LHP: 10; 1B: 4; OF: 5; SS: 5; C: 4.

Interesting Draft, doesn't make enough sense yet.

TamRa - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 01:40 AM EDT (#273648) #
you know this is a foreign feeling to me. There's not one guy who I react to with "boy I'm glad we got him!" and the most passion i feel about anyone on the list is that i think it's cool that we got a power-hitting 1B named "Rowdy"

At that was the 30th inning for cryinoutloud.

ayjackson - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#273652) #
It really comes down to who signs at the end of the day. It's hard to get worked up about anybody when they all may go to school.
92-93 - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#273653) #
Listening to Law's podcast from before the draft, and he speculates Bickford shot up the board enough to go 8th to KC. Callis agreed and said he shocked everyone by mocking Bickford at 13 to SD a month ago. They both seemed to agree that there was a lot of rumours as to how much $ Bickford wants but that nobody really knows and he's a big wild card that could be in play for a lot of teams. The most exciting part of their little discussion was that Law heard from an area scout that he's hit 98 already and has an arm that could hit triple digits down the road.
Craig B - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#273654) #
Concur with every word of what Mike Green said in #273578. With knobs on.

A friend reported to me that the Blue Jays's "director of scouting" (which I interpreted to be Director of Amateur Scouting Brian Parker, Tinnish's replacement) said in response to queries that the Jays had a competitive advantage in developing pitchers. Is this true? It made want to laugh and punch things at the same time.
Craig B - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#273655) #
"The most exciting part of their little discussion was that Law heard from an area scout that he's hit 98 already and has an arm that could hit triple digits down the road."

So, another reliever. Great. That's just great.

(In all seriousness. Great fastball, good control, no secondaries. That's a relief pitcher.)
ayjackson - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#273659) #
"Keith Law: Syndegaard pick was crazy - I can't believe he went on day one, nice body, some arm strength, arm works well, no polish, no second pitch."

I guess Bickford will be a bust reliever traded for a cy young winner. (if we're in to wild generalizations and typecasting)
hypobole - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#273669) #
"if we're in to wild generalizations and typecasting"

Well that is our area of strength.

Bickford is 17. He already has good control of a plus fastball. That is huge. If he improves only one secondary, he's a reliever, and potentially a late inning guy. And the Jays PD, snarky remarks to the contrary, have shown the ability to improve their young pitchers secondaries. The big issue will be to keep him, and the other young pitchers, healthy.
uglyone - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#273671) #
not sure why people are getting so worked up about drafting HS pitchers.

The crop of high pick HS arms under AA looks pretty impressive so far.....Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Beede, Norris, Smoral....plus other decent arms like Musgrove, Gabryszewski, DeJong...

Two guys have been in the top-50 prospect lists, 2 others have been in the top-100, another we didn't sign but is projected to be an elite pick next year....

And that's just 3 years of guys selected in the 1st and 2nd rounds.


Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#273674) #

If I had a dollar for everyone who looks a an HS Pitcher with a Big fastball and says "So, another reliever. Great. That's just great.", I would be rich.   Of course, one must consider how many Million$ of $$$$ spent on the Pitchers and how few Thousand$ of $ are spent on Pitching Staffs.

Toronto drafted Pitchers higher than they were projected to go, but also were not projected to last to the next round.   Chances are this was for Slot savings, because they passed on better? to take them.

Craig B - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#273691) #
If I had a dollar for everyone who looks a an HS Pitcher with a Big fastball and says "So, another reliever. Great. That's just great.", I would be rich. If people say that a lot it's because they are right a lot. And indeed, are right more often than they are wrong. I am more than happy to give the team's brain trust the benefit of the doubt (not like I can do anything else) but their love for pitchers who can't really pitch, this hasn't worn thin with you? The constant uphill pedalling, replacing pitchers again and again and again, bespeaks a team that has absolutely no idea who is a pitcher and who isn't.
Hodgie - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#273703) #
Concur with every word of what Mike Green said in #273578. With knobs on.

I on the other hand was completely puzzled by this comment. I will give you the Cardinals, who seem to churn out players (and pitchers) seemingly from every round in the draft. The other teams' roster are hardly littered with players from the draft.

These Yankees are not the Bronx Bombers of the 90s that were built primarily on their incredible home-grown talent. Who of significance is in their everyday lineup that they drafted in recent history - Gardner? Boston can obviously hold up Pedroia, but who else? Two good seasons of Ellsbury? The Dodgers can boast Kemp, his present struggles not-withstanding. The Rays, for all their picks in the top of the draft, boast Longoria and Joyce, and some decent years from BJ Upton I suppose.

Maybe I am missing something (wouldn't be unusual) but these are hardly drafting records I am envious of.

hypobole - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#273719) #
One the Yankees I'm sure wish they could have back was drafting Cito Culver - the next dozen picks featured HS arms Aaron Sanchez, Syndergaard and Taijuan Walker.
Hodgie - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#273720) #
but their love for pitchers who can't really pitch, this hasn't worn thin with you? The constant uphill pedalling, replacing pitchers again and again and again, bespeaks a team that has absolutely no idea who is a pitcher and who isn't.

And who are these pitchers that can't pitch you speak of?

hypobole - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#273722) #
Over and above that, I fail to see how the low minors PD guys have anything to do with the AAAA guys the Jays have used/been forced to use the past few years.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#273728) #
I am talking about multi-year patterns.  The Yankees routinely draft late and can acquire a lot of talent with the judicious application of greenbacks, but need to develop a few really good players from their farm.  In the 90s, it was Jeter, Bernie Williams, Posada and Rivera that formed the core.  In the aughts, it was Gardner and Cano.  The Red Sox' run was built in large part on the drafts of Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury.

It's done.  Ricciardi went through a period when he could do no wrong.  Anthopoulos has had his. Now no one will be referring to the ninja again; for myself, I am hoping that he will outgrow some of his obvious weaknesses and mature into a good and balanced GM.  That might happen.



hypobole - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#273729) #
"I am talking about multi-year patterns."

The argument started when people complained the Jays were not choosing middle infielders THIS draft. Past drafts, AA's Jays have chosen plenty of position players in the first few rounds or given sizable bonuses for lower round picks.

2010 - Sweeney, Hawkins, Knecht, Thon.
2011 - Anderson, Smith, Lopes, Dean.
2012 - Davis, Nay, Alford.

So this year, the draft is much stronger in young pitchers than MI's, and the PD system certainly seems to have been more successful developing young pitchers than young hitters. What sense would it make to reach for MI's just for the sake of "balance"?
bpoz - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#273731) #
Thanks Sam. Great job.

So some picks in round 1-10 will sign for under slot which will save us some money. We also have that cushion of 5% or so.
When M Smoral was chosen, AA knew that he had to punt 4-10 and was well prepared with candidates to do this.

We do not have any M Smoral this year so it looks like less punting was needed.
In a few weeks we will know the strategy for the budget.

As Richard SS and others have said who will actually sign. The highly rated pitchers are HS pitchers. I am guessing that our college pitchers ceilings are reasonably low, to be blunt. So it is probable that none will be signed for over slot.

My version of game strategy is if we draft a college pitcher in rounds 4-10 he must be special to get close to or over $100K. In later rounds 11-40 you can pay a college pitcher who has a lower ceiling $100K and it does nothing to the budget. If you pay $50K to a college pitcher/any player in round 4-10 you have $50K savings at least. The same guy in round 11-40 at $50K gains nothing for your budget.

We sure got a lot of hard throwing HS pitchers. You are projecting physical growth & arm strength improvement for 17-18 year olds. That is guessing. Parents genetics etc...
IMO the harder guess is "the pitchability" & secondary stuff improvement. Purcey vs Cecil.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 09 2013 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#273732) #

Third year College/University Pitcher picks are basically "What you see is what you get".   Control and consistency might improve, velocity will not.   Power College arms with average control/consistency usually go top 10 picks.   Those that don't, usually are still works in progress.   There may still be doubt about Starter/Reliever, but more are decided than not.   High School Pitchers rarely get quality instruction in College/University, winning is "King" there, so overuse/abuse is common here, and bad habbits seldom get corrected here.   If College/University is so good (beside the women), why do so few make it to the Show.

High School Pitcher picks are all about upside and signability with power arms abounding.   They have a chance at better and possible more extensive instruction.   They can be developed as fast as they can go.  

metafour - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#273746) #
What do the successful franchises- the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Yankees, (and now the Red Sox and Rays) do?  They draft position players and pitchers,


The Cardinals? You mean the team who's recent dominance has been fueled nearly entirely by their ability to find and develop PITCHERS? They've drafted and developed some impact bats...guess where they were drafted? Matt Carpenter: 13th round, Allen Craig: 8th round.  Now lets look at the real heart of their team; their rotation: Shelby Miller (1st round), Lance Lynn (Supp 1st round), Adam Wainwright (1st round, Braves), Jaime Garcia (22nd round), Jake Westbrook (1st round, Rockies)...Michael Wacha (1st round).  Their success with highly drafted position players in recent years has been more or less underwhelming, as you'll find many more flameouts or filler names than real impact prospects.
John Northey - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#273749) #
I wonder... how have some of the AL East opponents done with their 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks recently?  In brackets is year drafted and WAR listed in order of WAR (again, not perfect but easiest way to list a mix of pitchers/hitters).

Jays: In the 2000's 10+'ers are Shaun Marcum (3rd round), Aaron Hill (1st).

Yankees:
1st Round: Jeter (1992 - 72), Thurman Munson (1968 - 46), Carl Everett (1990-20), Scott McGregor (1972-20), Eric Milton (1996-17), Mark Prior (1998-17 DNS), Ian Kennedy (2006-10) - just one reached 10+ WAR (via rounding) since they drafted but didn't sign Prior in the 90's.
2nd Round: Al Leiter (1984-40), Mike Heath (1973-13).  No one since 2000 has even 1 WAR
3rd Round: Fred Lynn (1970-50 DNS), Ron Guidry (1971-48), Brett Gardner (2005-17), Nick Johnson (1996-15), Dan Pasqua (1982-11) all others were under 4.
Net: since 1994 (when the Yankees started winning): Eric Milton, Mark Prior, Nick Johnson, Ian Kennedy and Brett Gardner.  Just 2 in the 2000's same as the Jays.

Red Sox:
1st Round: Clemens (1983-140), Jim Rice (1971-47), Nomar Garciaparra (1994-44), Bruce Hurst (1976-35), Mo Vaughn (1989-27), Trot Nixon (1993-21), Aaron Sele (1991-21), Jacob Ellsbury (2005-17), Ken Brett (1966-17), Clay Buchholtz (2005-14), Adam Everett (1998-13), David Murphy (2003-10), Scott Hattenberg (1991-10).  3 in the 2000's and some 'wow' players throughout their history.
2nd Round: Fred Lynn (1973-50), Dustin Pedroia (2004-35), Jon Lester (2002-26), Jeff Suppan (1993-17), Rick Miller (1969-16) - 2 great picks this century plus Fred Lynn.
3rd Round: Tino Martinez (1985-29), Mike Greenwell (1982-26), Lynn McGlothen (1968-15).
Since 2000 the Sox have 5 very nice additions in their system - better than the Yanks and Jays combined.

Tampa Bay Rays:
1st Round: Evan Longoria (2006-33), Josh Hamilton (1999-25), David Price (2007-15), BJ Upton (2002-15), Rocco Baldelli (2000-10) - outside of Rocco they were top 3 picks in the draft, he was #6.
2nd Round: Carl Crawford (1999-37), all others under 1 WAR
3rd Round: all under 2 WAR (Elijah Dukes #1 at 1.9)
Boy does that put a damper on the great drafting everyone thinks of with the Rays.  All their 10+'ers are top 6 picks with one exception.  Of non-top 6 overall picks the best any of done outside of Crawford is Dukes in the first 3 rounds.  Aubrey Huff from the 5th round is at 20 WAR (1998 pick), James Shields in 2000 in the 16th was a great pick (22 WAR), Jacoby Ellsbury in the 23rd (DNS 17). Checked the top 25 rounds, not sure if any gems showed up after that.  Now, they did do great with those high picks but just 4 others despite being high in each of the other rounds isn't too impressive (3 in the 'what do you know' rounds from the 5th on when most teams are thankful if they get anything).

Gotta get back to work.  Someone want to check Baltimore?
Richard S.S. - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#273767) #
Why does A.A. draft HS Pitchers?   Roy Halladay, who's our next?
Gerry - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#273809) #

I decided to follow on from some of John's work:

Here are players drafted by the Blue Jays who have delivered more than 1 WAR along with their overall draft position:

2003: Hill (13); Marcum (80); Roberts (530)

2004: Lind (83); Janssen (117); Litsch (717)

2005: Romero (6)

2006: Snider (14)

2007: Arencibia (21); Cecil (38); Rzepczynski (175)

2008: No-one

2009: Loup (280); Gomes (310)

 

Some good years, some not so good.  Most of the players who delivered good value were selected in the first 100 picks.  For that reason, and because I have limited time, I looked at the AA era drafts, from 2010 forward, looking to see which picks had exceeded (my) expectations and where they came from.

2010 - Exceed: Sanchez; Syndergaard; Nicolino.  Flat: Wojo.  Fall short: McGuire; Murphy; Sweeney; Hawkins

2011 - Exceed: Smith; Norris.  Fall short: Anderson; Musgrove; Comer; Gabryszwski

2012 - Exceed: Nay; DeJong.  Flat: Stroman.  Fall short: Davis; Smoral; T Gonzalez

 

First of all this is exceedingly subjective.  There were three college players selected, all pitchers, McGuire, Wojo and Stroman.  With Stroman still a big unknown, the value and expectations of this group look like disappointing.

There were six high school hitters drafted, Sweeney, Hawkins, Anderson have disappointed.  Smith and Nay have a chance.  It's early on Davis but he is still trying to find his way.

There were 11 high school pitchers selected.  We all know of the big three taken in 2010, Sanchez, Syndergaard and Nicolino.  The other eight include Murphy, Musgrove, Comer, Gabryszwski, Smoral, Tyler Gonzalez, Norris and DeJong.  There is some optimism for the last two, and Smoral has been injured a lot, but otherwise there has not been much success.

 

I have a couple of conclusions.  First, the Jays, and AA's, drafting had one early success and that has helped their reputation.  But aside from the "big three" the Jays drafting has not been good.   The Jays hired a lot of scouts but that doesn't appear to have translated into draft success.  I know drafting is hard and a lot of prospects flame out at AA or even AAA.  The most disappointing part of the Jays drafting to me is that so many of these high school picks haven't made it to full season ball or don't look like they deserve a shot at Dunedin.  You can understand failure but can you explain why high draft picks such as Anderson and Musgrove can't get out of extended spring training?  All those extra scouts haven't helped.

My second conclusion is that I retract my statement that the Jays are better able to develop pitchers than hitters.  The record does not support it.

AA's intent was to use the farm system to develop talent for trading or using for the major league team.  That plan worked in 2010, it didn't work in 2011 and it hasn't shown signs of working in 2012.  What is different in 2013?

 

This should probably be a separate article but I decided to just put out there what I noted today.

 

Mike Green - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#273812) #
That's a good summary, Gerry. 

It does take years to evaluate the way things turn out.  Remember the big Romero debate.  The other options were Maybin and Tulowitzki.  Romero turned out all right, giving the Jays one very good year and two good years.  Maybin was an important part of the package which brought the Tigers Miguel Cabrera.  And Tulowitzki has been a damn fine ballplayer.  In hindsight, doors 2 and 3 would have turned out better, but it wasn't really the end of the world. 

smcs - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#273829) #
So I just did some quick and dirty research of how often high school arms turn into major league players. I looked at the drafts from 1997-2007, and all high school pitchers selected in the first 10 rounds. 2 problems are that BB-Ref doesn't indicate if a player signed or not (so Cliff Lee and Mark Prior are included, but didn't sign out of high school), and it doesn't update its draft records until after the completion of the season, so all WAR counts are up until the end of the 2012 season, and anybody making their debut in 2013 isn't counted as a major leaguer.

In those 11 drafts, 649 HS pitchers were drafted in the first 10 rounds, and 216 have made the majors (roughly 33%). 91 have more than 1 WAR (~14%), 46 have more than 5 WAR (~7%), 25 have more than 10 WAR (~4%), 12 have more than 20 WAR (~2%) and just 6 have more than 30 WAR (~1%), one of whom is Cliff Lee. A major flaw is that some of the guys in the later years have not been pitching long enough. Looking at just 97-04, 469 were drafted, 36% made the majors, 16% have more than 1 WAR, 8% have more than 5, 5% have more than 10 WAR, 2% have more than 20, and the same 6 guys have more than 30.

In the past 4 drafts, the Jays have selected 24 HS pitchers, some of whom did not sign (Tyler Beede, Logan Ehlers, etc.). The expected return on these picks, based on the 97-07 drafts, would be 8 Major Leaguers, and maybe 2 guys getting more than 10 WAR.

Suddenly, I'm not so sure I like this strategy.

Gerry - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#273830) #

smcs's post reminded me that BA had done an analysis of the top 100 picks. They published it last week, you can see it here.

The graduation rate (30 games played) for high school pitchers taken in the first 100 picks is 33%. Between 11% and 15% are impact pitchers (5 career WAR).

The Jays might hit that percentage overall thanks to Sanchez and Syndergaard.

The rates for high school position players are slightly lower.

Gerry - Monday, June 10 2013 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#273832) #
And just to blend the BA work with my post above...the Jays have selected 6 position players in the first 100 picks from 2010 through 2012. On average 2 of them should make it, although by increasing the number of scouts AA hoped to increase that percentage. It looks like three have hit the wall meaning that for the Jays to be average two of Davis, Nay and Smith would have to make the major leagues.

The Jays have taken 11 high school pitchers, on average 4 of them should make it. The Jays will have to have some good fortune for 4 pitchers to make it.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 11 2013 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#273839) #
Gerry - that is a great article at BA.  Interesting as it is the opposite of what was standard wisdom not that long ago.  That high school pitchers in the top 100 are more likely to be impact players (at 12.4%) than high school hitters (10.5%).  Also interesting to see 3B and 1B from 4 year colleges are more likely to be impact players than anyone else (21.3% and 18.2%).  Back when Oakland was making waves it was shown that high school pitchers were crazy to draft in the first round but clearly teams have improved their scouting and now are getting the quality guys more often.  It'd be interesting to see if you go from 2000 on if things change drastically from pre-2000 but that won't work well for another 10 years.

Challenging to evaluate a draft.  You really don't know if it was a good or bad draft until years later.  Using the 5+ WAR for impact and checking those famous A's teams...
1998: 3 (20 for Mulder)
1999: 2 (35 for Zito)
2000: 1 (17 for Harden)
2001: 3 (17 for Ethier who dns)
2002: 4 (22 for Swisher, includes Papelbon who didn't sign) - this is the 'moneyball' draft, 14 reached all had positive WAR
2003: 1 (17 for Ethier)
2004: 3 (12 for Suzuki)
2005: 1
2006: 3
2007 to present: none.

So every year they got someone of value, often with lots of value.  21 in total (counting DNS's)

For comparison the Jays had 2/3/0/0/0/3/2/1/0 from 2006 on = 10 players.  Cecil might join that this year and become the first from 2006 on to join.

Yankees?  1/0/0/0/0/1/1/3/3/0 from 2007 to today = 9 players, including 3 from 2006 that the Jays could've had (Kennedy pick #21, Robertson #524, Joba #41).  Toronto took Snider at #16 (which seemed like a good idea for awhile) instead of Kennedy or Joba, and had tons of picks before Robertson.  No 2nd or 3rd round picks as they signed AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan.

bpoz - Tuesday, June 11 2013 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#273861) #
Maybe a new thread about who signed. Also $ involved.

Thanks Richard SS for that signing site.
ogator - Wednesday, June 12 2013 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#274000) #
So according to Baseball America, the Blue Jays have signed their 21st round pick, Mike Reeves, a catcher from Florida Gulf Coast College but there is no price listed for the signing. I can see how keeping the details of who has signed and for how much might be of advantage to a team, although most of the other teams seem to be rather forthcoming about whom they have signed and for how much. I have to guess that the Blue Jays have signed quite a few players and that somehow they are keeping this information secret. But there also must come a point at which keeping everything secret from everybody stops being discreet caution and stumbles over the line into paranoia.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 12 2013 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#274012) #

The Blue Jays usually put out an aggregated press release at some point.  They don't usually announce individual signings, except for #1.

Perhaps Davidi or Chisholm will read this and ask.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 13 2013 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#274052) #
A.A. doesn't think anyone should know how much anyone makes or how long the are signed for.  I suspect he's not happy with MLB as they no longer keep secret what Draft picks sign for.   I am surprised as Short-Season Teams start now and with rosters being announced, those picks signed are usually announced by now. 
John Northey - Thursday, June 13 2013 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#274055) #
Yeah, lack of knowledge of what others make does drag down salaries.  Look at the NHL - they had extremely restrictive free agency (up to 5 first round picks for one) but still saw salaries skyrocket in the 80's once everyone knew what everyone else made.  Baseball saw the same as did other sports.  This would also happen in 'real life' if salaries were public knowledge.  Why?  Because then you could see that the guy working next to you is making $10k a year more than you thus would have an argument for a raise vs the current 'I deserve one' 'we cannot afford it, go work elsewhere if you dont like it'.  Thus AA wants the draft picks to have no idea what the cap is, what others sign for, or even what round they were picked I suspect as all of those help when you are negotiating.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 13 2013 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#274071) #
Draft Picks in 11-40 are of interest that they've signed and whether or not for more than the slot.   In that area are 14 HS picks, of which 1 has signed and 2 others are signing.  The tough signs here are Brentz, Lauer, Tewes and Tellez.   Picks 1-10 have added value to the picks.   This lets us keep up with who is signed and who can be signed.   Some of the scuttlebutt around has Toronto signing picks 1-14 except for Bickford, Brentz and Graveman who's in the College World Series (and can't sign until it's over). 
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