Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Game Thread

And how do I choose and where do I draw the line between truth and necessary pain?
And how do I know and where do I get my belief that things will be all right again?

Edinson Volquez (4-5, 5.20) will throw the pill for the Padres against Ramon Ortiz (1-2, 5.01) in another 10:10 pm first pitch at Petco Park. Things are looking pretty grim, aren't they?

@BlueJays: Tonight's @BlueJays lineup: (10:10pmET) Cabrera-LF Bautista-RF Encarnacion-3B Lind-1B Arencibia-C Rasmus-CF Izturis-2B Kawasaki-SS Ortiz-P

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 12:54 PM EDT.

Game Thread — 6/2 @ San Diego | 85 comments | Create New Account

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Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#273062) #

Three games in a San Diego weekend and all are late games. I haven't checked their schedule, but no afternoon games on Saturday or Sunday? Are S.D.'s attendance problems that bad?

James W - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#273063) #

During last night's broadcast, they mentioned there is a marathon taking place in San Diego today.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#273065) #

Thank you James W

R.A. Dickey's struggles these last two starts have people ignoring the previous ten starts. Anemic or ineffective offense by his Team is his biggest problem. In only two of his twelve starts has the Team had more than eight hits. Three times less than five hits and he won two of those. And four one-run losses. With just the offense this Team had in 2012, he might have won 3-5 more games. You can blame the Starters, you can blame the Defense, you can blame the Relievers, but offense counts for much, much more.

Parker - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#273066) #

Richard S.S.:

The team has an OPS+ of 97 this year, and Dickey's ERA+ is 83. Last year's offense produced a 93 OPS+, so as usual you are incorrect when you claim that Dickey would have won more games with last year's offense. Unless you are saying that the Jays need to hit better specifically when Dickey is pitching, then hitting isn't the problem.

For someone who continually berates forum posters for not taking the time to look up the numbers, you seem to be chronically guilty of this behavior yourself. I keep hoping you'll learn something here, but it appears your claims are getting more outlandish rather than less so.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#273067) #

In April and May in 2012, Toronto hit better than any other time that season - yes or no. Dickey has only pitched in April and May 2013 - yes or no. I am using an iPhone from work just now so access to multiple sites at on e isn't possible. Check Dickey's game logs, then the Schedule on the day he pitched. That should be a good start.

It really doesn't matter how well your Starter or Bullpen pitches or how good your defense is. If you don't score runs (offense), you don't win.

Magpie - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#273069) #

Anemic or ineffective offense by his Team is his biggest problem.

No, that's the team's problem, and it's got nothing to do with the number of runs the man has allowed. It's had a negative effect on Dickey's W-L record, especially early on - in his first 7 starts, they scored 3 runs or less every time. It's been quite a bit better since then. But obviously, Dickey's main problem is that he's walking almost twice as many hitters as he did last year. (He's also allowing more hits, but that ain't exactly a championship quality defense they're putting out behind him.)

Magpie - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#273070) #

You'd have done better if you'd said that when your ERA is 5.18, it doesn't much matter what kind of offense you have because it's not going to be enough. Ain't too many teams that score that many runs.

Parker - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#273071) #

Richard, I was actually being facetious when I asked if your point was that the Jays needed to hit better in Dickey's starts. Unless I'm misunderstanding you, it appears that actually IS the point you're trying to make.

Wow.

uglyone - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#273072) #

Update:

Dickey/Morrow/Buehrle/Johnson/Romero: 40gs, 5.6ip/gs, 5.65era, Team Record: 16-24, .400

Happ/Jenkins/Ortiz/Laffey/Rogers/Nolin: 16gs, 4.4ip/gs, 4.91era, Team Record: 8-9, .471

Magpie - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#273073) #

the Jays needed to hit better in Dickey's starts.

If he's gonna pitch like this... yeah, they need to hit better. Way, way better. They need to hit better than every other team in the majors. And not just when Dickey's out there. They're giving up 5.18 runs per game (by amazing coincidence, that's Dickey's ERA) and exactly one team scores more than that. Miguel Cabrera works for them.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#273076) #

Fifty-six games into the season in 2012, Toronto was 30-26. Dickey pitched the 1st, 6th, 11th, etc. games of the season. With the corresponding offense in those games (in 2012), and Dickey pitching no different than he has, I believe he wins (correction) 2 and a slight maybe of 3 more games because his offense is better that game.

2 April: 4-1 loss on 4 H and 4BB. In the corresponding game in 2012, there were 10 H and 7 BB. Probably a Dickey win.

23 April: 4-3 loss with 6 H and 5 BB. In 2012: 10 H and 3 BB. In a one run game, a probable Dickey win.

28 April: 3-2 loss with 8 H and 1 BB. In 2012: 8 H and 2 BB. Is a walk in stead of hitting into a double play enough to win a one run game?

It's possible this holds true for other Starters, as so far Toronto has lost 13 one run games and 5 two run games, plus opening day.

Parker - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#273079) #

I know statistical cherry-picking can be temping, but this is really going overboard. In theory, any team in baseball with a positive run differential could go 162-0 on the season if you're allowed to mix and match pitching performances and hitting performances to get the most ideal results.

Why stop there? You could also re-arrange individual at-bats for each game so that nobody ever hits a ground ball up the middle with a runner on first, and every time a batter hits a home run, the bases are never empty. You could also rearrange pitch sequences to optimize each pitcher's performance. You could even eliminate bad umpiring calls that change the outcome of an at-bat moving the affected pitches to different at-bats.

I think you just revolutionized the game of baseball, Richard. They've been doing it wrong for the last 120 years.

JB21 - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#273083) #

It's better for the stress level if you treat Richard S.S.'s post like Pat Tabler's talking on a broadcast.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#273084) #

Sometimes this place is so funny, I'm laughing before I know it. Thank you.

You just have to know who to blame. When Hits plus BB equals 13 or more, wins usually occur. Less than 13, you blame offense. If Allowed Runs or other runs allowed by Relief exceed 1, blame the bullpen. The first error is free, after that blame defense. Wild pitches and passed balls are a Catcher's responsibility. If they exceed 1 blame the Catcher. Pitchers are allowed 3-4 over 6.0 or more is decent. More than 4 blame the Pitcher. And sometimes a Pitcher sucks. When in doubt blame the Umpires, they're usually wrong. Finding fault is easy, you just have to know who to blame.

Magpie - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#273086) #

Issuing an intentional walk to the number 8 hitter in the second inning is not an example of a "manager doing everything right."

robertdudek - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#273087) #

Neither is hit and running Arencibia with Rasmus at the dish.

John Northey - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#273088) #

Giving up a 3 run homer to the (#&@ pitcher is also an example of why you don't keep pushing it with a guy who really shouldn't be in the majors right now. Ortiz is now a decent AAA pitcher but in the majors he should only be the 8th man in the pen - used for blowouts only (his last ML season with an ERA+ over 90 was 2004). Sadly I fear this might become one...

Ortiz is currently #9 on the Jays for innings pitched, just 3 behind Cecil (including tonight's game). That is just wrong. His ERA is up to 6.04 now, which puts 16 guys ahead of him who have pitched here this season (10 more behind him). Coming into tonight though he had a better ERA than our 'ace' Dickey and Buehrle and Morrow. Ugh - that is the season in a nutshell isn't it?

At this point I figure give Dave Bush another shot, but it is scary how bad Buffalo's staff has been. Oritz was the only starter with an ERA sub 4 and they've had 12 guys start for them (!).

Might be time to give Austin Bibens-Dirkx a call up to AAA at least - he has a 2.36 ERA in AA with 7.9 K/9 2.4 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 all solid numbers but according to B-R he is now in A+ ball ??? What the heck is up with that?

uglyone - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#273089) #

Yet another dark moment this dark season - watching Ortiz blow out his arm and end his career, bawling like a kid as he leaves the field.

this season is less than fun.

John Northey - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#273090) #

Ick. Right after I posted that something happened to Oritz's arm. Poor guy - that really sucks. Here he is getting a shot, having issues, but still getting a final shot and his arm snaps it seems. While I feel the Jays should have had better options, I never want to see injuries happen. Especially for guys at a stage where an injury could mean the end of their career.

Oceanbound - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#273091) #

Might be time to give Austin Bibens-Dirkx a call up to AAA at least - he has a 2.36 ERA in AA with 7.9 K/9 2.4 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 all solid numbers but according to B-R he is now in A+ ball ??? What the heck is up with that?

Dude is an org guy, they wanted actual prospects to start in AA so he gets moved wherever he's needed more.

John Northey - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 06:17 AM EDT (#273092) #

I know Bibens-Dirkx is an org guy, but in AAA they want the team to win and they are using a ton of AAAA guys there already. Why not give him a shot there? AAA and the majors are 'win now' teams so you try to get the hot players to those teams. Still, if they felt he'd flop in AAA (as he has in the past) then I can see using him to shore up the staff in A+. Still seems odd when his numbers were solid in AA.

Oceanbound - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#273095) #

For amusement, I suggest watching the Edwin homer again and focusing on the catcher.

Catcher: down, in the dirt
Catcher: down, down
Catcher: down. throw it down, as down as can be
Catcher: down
*hanging curveball*
Catcher: WHY CAN'T YOU LISTEN TO ME

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#273101) #

There's a video on Josh Thole's milb card of a home run to left centerfield (the opposite way). It is possible for a 26 year old to add a little power, and if that is the case with Thole, he can be a very good hitter. Frankly, I don't know why you wouldn't just give him most of the major league job at this point. He may not be a great defender, but the bar with Arencibia is very low, and Thole can catch the knuckler.

I have beaten the Negrych/Bonifacio/Izturis thing to death. Yes, Negrych hasn't hit well the last couple of weeks, but it is clear to me that he is a better hitter than either of the other two, and Izturis' defence is now only fair at second base. You'd be better off also to give Negrych most of the second base job.

As for the pitching, it is not good when your most valuable pitchers are all in the bullpen. Cecil has shown that he can handle RHBs acceptably well thanks to the new training regime. He ought to be lengthened to 3 innings and then put in the rotation.

92-93 - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#273103) #

"I have beaten the Negrych/Bonifacio/Izturis thing to death. Yes, Negrych hasn't hit well the last couple of weeks, but it is clear to me that he is a better hitter than either of the other two, and Izturis' defence is now only fair at second base. You'd be better off also to give Negrych most of the second base job."

Clear to you and only you. Negrych's crash back to Earth continues with his .227/.261/.273 line the last 10 games, and I have yet to see a scouting report on Negrych that lists his defense as even MLB average. I'm all ears for improving this team but you've never made any attempt to prove that's the case outside of establishing what you believe based on a player you've probably never even seen.

John Northey - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#273104) #

The interesting thing is MLBTR is starting to beat some of these drums too. They mention that the Jays might have to eat some of Izturis contract to trade him. Mainly it comes up due to Munenori Kawasaki being here but could apply to Negrych as well. Izturis is at the 'magic age' of 32 when players traditionally start to drop off cliffs for performance (for example, the famous 'best outfield of the 80's' in Bell/Moseby/Barfield were all but done by 32 with Barfield having 105 PA, Moseby none and Bell being the only full-timer at 32 with Bell's career ending on the bench at 33; Roberto Alomar had his last great season at 33 then OPS+'ed 85 for the rest; Damaso Garcia [a great Jay of the 80's at 2B] had his final season at 32; Kelly Gruber was out of MLB after his age 31 season; I could go on for awhile here). He might have been the best available, but this might have been a time the Jays should've looked harder as Izturis' fielding has been a big negative at 2B/3B/SS so far (-16.8/-53.7/-87.5 UZR/150 so far) while in his career he was never that much above par at any of them (5.3/1.6/-3.4 respectively). If he cannot hit for a 95 OPS+ he isn't valuable with that glove even as a backup.

What about alternatives?

Kawasaki has UZR of -0.3 at SS (basically league average) so far this year, 1.1 in his short career here to go with multiple Japanese Gold Gloves. He had a 30.6 UZR/150 at 2B for the Mariners in (very) limited time last year and had just 1 inning at 3B. He is basically a Japanese John McDonald who takes lots of walks instead of swinging for the fences at all times.
Bonifacio has 2B/3B/SS UZR's of -8.6/--/0 and in his career -8.0/-7.4/-13.1 so far. His outfield play has been poor at -30.5 overall vs -2.2 lifetime. What is sad is, for 2013, that is better than Izturis and given Bonifacio is in his age 28 season he has a few years left before he hits the 'age 32 wall'.
DeRosa is very old, in his age 38 season, but has the best fielding stats at 2B. 2B/3B/SS = 8.2/-48.6/na career -2.5/-7.5/-0.8. Scary eh? He also is competent in the OF (12.4 UZR/150 lifetime) if needed. I'd limit the playing time though as he is unlikely to hit anywhere near that 118 OPS+ figure he currently has for the rest of the season.
Jim Negrych is a wild card. His RF is good in AAA at 4.51 with just 2 errors (989 fielding percentage) but that tells us little really outside of him not making dumb mistakes often (which on this team is a big plus sadly enough). His last 10 he has only hit 227/261/273. However, you take any other stretch and you get a 300+ hitter who takes walks and has some power.

Once Reyes is back the Jays do have a challenge. Do you dump Izturis to anyone interested and go with a mix of Kawasaki/Bonifacio/DeRosa at 2B with Negrych as your backup? Do you call up Negrych now and try to find a way to dump Izturis as well?

At first I was going to say to send Gose back to AAA and make Boni/DeRosa your backup outfielders but Gose is now hitting 318/400/409 despite having as many AB's vs LHP as RHP. Heck, he is hitting the lefties better - go figure. It is extremely few PA but at this point I'd be mixing him in until he starts to slump as who knows - if he is ready then some shuffling has to occur.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#273105) #

Many posters here have agreed with me that Negrych is a better option than Bonifacio/Izturis at this point, 92-93. It's not that he is great but when both of your existing options are playing well below replacement level, you need to do something. It is a low bar that he has to clear.

Gerry - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#273106) #

I think Kawasaki might be league average or perhaps a little below, based on my lying eyes. He makes most of the routine plays but I think his range is only OK, particularly towards the middle of the infield.

I don't think Kawasaki's fate, once Reyes returns, will be an important factor in the Jays performance over the rest of the season.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#273107) #

I agree that Kawaski is an average defender at shortstop, Gerry. He is a capable back-up middle infielder at this point in his career. Unlike Izturis and Bonifacio, he can actually play shortstop, and so with the modern day roster conventions, he has some value. I am guessing that Kawasaki was a better defender in his mid 20s, but he relies on quickness and he is probably not as quick as he was.

robertdudek - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#273108) #

Here is another idea I have borrowed from Bill James and have named the "Gap Concept of Roster Management":

A minor leaguer has to demonstrate clear superiority in order to supplant a major leaguer.

In other words, it is not clear that Negrych is any better or worse than BoniTuris or IzFacio, but in order to take one of their jobs he must demonstrate superiority.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#273109) #

Well, Robert, I am satisifed that Negrych is clearly superior to both of them at this stage. Not everyone agrees with that, but many do.

I might add an addendum to the James' rule. The standard for minor leaguers is lower as the actual value of the major leaguer is lower. If a major leaguer is an average player, a would-be minor league replacement must be clearly superior to the major leaguer, but if the major leaguer is merely playing at replacement level, the would-be minor league replacement need only show that he is likely to be better than that. When you've got nothing, you've got nothing to lose.

92-93 - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#273110) #

Oh sorry MG, I didn't realize you had the support of Batter's Box posters who have also never seen Negrych play. My bad.

The Blue Jays 2B position has been above replacement level for at least 3 weeks now, and there's no reason to think Negrych himself is above replacement level.

Gerry - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#273112) #

Mike:

How did you get comfort with Negrych's defense?

hypobole - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#273113) #

92-93, I'll side with you on this one, for a couple of reasons. 1st, the hitters seem to be starting to heat up. Maybe Mottola has them on the right track or they're just reverting to their mean talent level, but let's see if the progress continues to the point they could actually be worth something in a trade.

However, most importantly, any change at 2nd base now would at best put lipstick on a pig. We have arguably the worst starting staff in baseball. Unless that changes quickly and substantially, there is no good reason to dump one MI to bring up another that will in all likelihood will be a minor upgrade at best.

92-93 - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#273114) #

"However, most importantly, any change at 2nd base now would at best put lipstick on a pig. We have arguably the worst starting staff in baseball. Unless that changes quickly and substantially, there is no good reason to dump one MI to bring up another that will in all likelihood will be a minor upgrade at best."

Well said, though I'd change the last sentence to read "that in all likelihood will be a downgrade both on the field and for the organization's depth at the position".

92-93 - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#273116) #

Since Bonifacio was more or less made the starting 2B on May 12th, he has hit .302/.318/.444. If you go through the play by play and look at the ABs made by 2Bs not named Emilio during that time frame, I count an additional 5 for 12 line, which includes DeRosa's HR last night, that can be added to the 2B total.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#273117) #

I've seen enough online of Negrych to be satisfied that he has an above-average arm for a second baseman, has below-average range (but more than DeRosa) and turns the DP acceptably well. I am not saying that will be better defensively than Bonifacio, but I am satisfied that he will be as good and his bat will be better.

I don't agree with the lipstick on a pig concept. The season is young, and the talent (including the returning talent) is there for this club to be competitive. Management has done a terrible job so far at getting the most of the talent on hand, in my view. Negrych is but one aspect of the problem; Thole is another, and the handling of the start/relief pitching depth issue is a third. Incidentally, if the club figures that the season is toast (which I don't think it is), it ought to be selling now rather than making half-hearted efforts to compete.

John Northey - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#273119) #

The two players in question, Negrych and Thole, are interesting.

Negrych: 302/378/411 - that is his CAREER line, not 2013. In AA it is 290/372/381, AAA 298/377/433 with over 1000 PA in AA, 707 in AAA. He has shown an ability to hit down there and is well past due for a ML shot. His first 5 years were wasted in the Pirates system (not good at developing players, see Bautista and their 20 years in a row losing streak as evidence), since then he has jumped to Florida, Washington and now Toronto's systems. He is overdue for some kind of chance to see if he can do in the majors what he has done in the minors.

Thole: hitting 329/392/507 in AAA. He had a horrible year last year 234/294/290 for the Mets after hitting 276/350/356 over the previous 3 seasons (672 PA). His 'competition' in the majors is JPA (225/248/456, career 223/270/437) and Blanco (171/237/229, past 4 years has 'hit' 216/277/362). JPA has caused no end of headaches around here for his defense, and Blanco's name is a good description of his hitting, while the guy he was brought in to catch has had a horrible year. I see no reason for keeping Thole in AAA while these two flail away and show no ability to do the defensive part of the game. Unless Thole's defense is even worse of course.

Both have shown enough in AAA to justify a call up when the guys they are trying to replace are hitting 2B: 232/259/357 (73 sOPS+) and CA: 226/249/442 (92 sOPS+). Izturis seemed a good idea at the time, but it seems every last thing with him has failed. Ideally you'd put him on the DL or something for a month and let Negrych play instead so you have the depth. It just seems Izturis was signed at the wrong time for too long as his defense and offense both took a dive and his ability to steal bases has vanished too (0-2 this year vs 91-28 previously). His last 10 games saw a 505 OPS, the 10 before that was 265/286/441 (JPA), and 500 or less for each set of games before that. Bonifacio's 'hot' streak of the past 10 is 286/306/429, but other than that all I see is ugly to go along with poor defense. DeRosa has done well but no one realistically sees any future there - he is a backup who is having a good year so far but unlikely to keep it up.

At this point the 3 backup infielders have all played like, well, backup infielders. None have shown enough to give a full-time job to, none have even shown enough for a platoon role. All have reasons to believe any hot streaks are just that, hot streaks. The Jays really need to decide which is least needed and trade him when Reyes is back as none can really play shortstop so you need Kawasaki up. None are hitting enough either. I'd give Negrych a shot and try to trade one of those 3, ideally as part of a trade for a real starting second baseman. One who has acceptable defense and good offense or excellent defense and endurable offense. Instead we have 2 guys fighting it out who are showing poor offense and poor defense.

Wildrose - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#273120) #

Management has done a terrible job so far at getting the most of the talent on hand, in my view. Negrych is but one aspect of the problem; Thole is another, and the handling of the start/relief pitching depth issue is a third.

Perhaps. I think this is more frustration talking than salient analysis. Frankly, in my view is the seemingly inordinate amount of injuries, particularly to the starting pitching which has led to the teams predicament. I really doubt that even with the most ambitious projections of both Thole and Negrych that they would be more than 2 to 3 games closer in the standings than they are today. In terms of starting pitching it really is the " perfect storm " in terms of possible negative outcomes. Everybody is looking for pitching, it's a very hard commodity to obtain for any management group.

uglyone - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#273121) #

I think Boni's starting to come around. He's had at least a hit in 8 of his last 10 starts, and has a .763ops over his last 19gms. He's always been an extremely streaky hitter, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a streak going now.I'd probably put him in a strict platoon with DeRosa at this point, though. DeRosa has flat out earned a spot at least v. LHP. and maybe more than that.

With Negrych cooling down (mostly thanks to the expected babip regression....though he's still sitting at an unsustainable .395babip), and Boni and DeRosa heating up, I'm not sure the move makes much sense to me anymore. Especially since Kawasaki likely has an even better argument to take over 2B when Reyes comes back than Negrych does.I wouldn't hesitate to move Izturis. We have cheaper players capable of bringing what he's bringing, and he's only getting older. And he hasn't shown any signs of coming out of his offensive funk, either.

As for Thole, he always should have been up here instead of Blanco. Given Dickey's suckage this year, it's outright impossible to justify Blanco's spot on the roster.I'm not convinced Thole would be an upgrade on JP, but I like the idea of two youngish catchers with good MILB track records and extremely complimentary offensive skillsets pushing each other for playing time.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#273122) #

The "perfect storm" analysis starts to look questionable when it happens two years in a row. I am not saying that this club ought to be in first place at this point. Management has, however, exacerbated a problem by not taking adequate steps to prepare for injury/underperformance and ameliorate the situation when it occurs. This team could be in a better position to compete as injured players return to health; instead, the task looks daunting and may reasonably lead to pressures to sell now or in July. It's a bad, bad cycle.

Beyonder - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#273123) #

The only thing I can find under Neygrich and scouting report is a piece from Pirates'Prospects (last updated in 2010) that described his defence as "poor".

http://players.piratesprospects.com/2010/02/jim-negrych.html

If Neygrich is an improvement defensively over Bonifacio, I would be surprised if was a material one. Offensively, I think you would be pulling the trigger very quickly if you demoted a player who hit .297 is his last full season in the majors after a measly 140 (albeit low-quality) at bats, in favour of a player who over 190 minor-league at bats is hitting a full 90 points better than he did last year. You'd be committing a sample size error on both ends of that swap.

hypobole - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#273124) #

Can't demote Bonifacio - he's out of options.

John Northey - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#273125) #

Mike - AA was hunting for pitching and many here felt it was overkill when he wanted another ML ready arm to go along with Happ to be the #7 starter. I think the Jays really need to figure out what they are doing wrong vs what teams like the Rays are doing right when it comes to pitcher health. Biomechanics is something I've read the Jays ignore while others (such as the Rays) embrace. Maybe the Jays need to rethink that.

2013: Jays 27 pitchers, 11 starting pitchers so far and barely into June, 12 starts by non-top 5 starters (add 5 more if you use Romero as top 5 instead of Happ). Tampa is at 17 pitchers, 8 starters but just 4 starts by others than their top 5.
2012: Jays 33 pitchers plus Mathis twice, 12 starting pitchers 46 starts by #6-12. Rays 18 pitchers, 8 starters, 13 starts by non-top 5 guys.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#273126) #

You don't need to. Bonifacio becomes Cabrera's caddy. Gose goes back down to triple A.

In the last six years, Bonifacio has posted the following wRC+- 65, 61, 75, 109, 75 and 55. It's pretty easy to spot the outlier. wRC+ includes basestealing where Bonifacio has amassed most of his value over his career. Although he is still fast, it seems that he is not as fast as he was. He doesn't walk enough; he strikes out too much and he doesn't hit for power. That about covers it.

Current management has fallen in love with tools ("high-ceilinged ballplayers"). Arencibia's power. Bonifacio's speed. You do need some of that around, but when these tools are not maturing into skills, you have to accept that and move on and find roles for players consistent with what they actually have, not what they might become.

Wildrose - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#273127) #

I have beaten the Negrych/Bonifacio/Izturis thing to death. Yes, Negrych hasn't hit well the last couple of weeks, but it is clear to me that he is a better hitter than either of the other two, and Izturis' defence is now only fair at second base. You'd be better off also to give Negrych most of the second base job.

I view the AA regime as primarily scouting driven and indeed his main background is in scouting. AA has said multiple times he believes the team's advantage will come from advanced scouting. Baseball scouts ( and I've actually been around a few in both baseball and basketball) love tools, particularly speed, strong arms and power. The Blue Jay roster is littered with players who have strong tools in this regard ( in fact they are second in the A.L. in homeruns and team baserunning).

I think for the team's administration would tell you that in terms of comparing raw athleticism there is no comparison between Bonifacio and Negrych. For them it's all about ceiling. Bonifacio is bigger, much faster and has a stronger arm ( he actually has played more third than second in his career ) than Negrych. They also seem to believe toolsy players can be coached up to their full potential. Case in point both Bautista and Encarcion, both who have off the charts power and who found success later in their careers when given proper tutelage and opportunity by the Jays. They would probably consider Morrow to be someone on the pitching side who has mastered his substantial tools and skills. For them Bonifacio is about the same age that his two Dominican compatriots found success so you can see where their patience comes from.

Now I don't necessarily share this same enthusiasm for raw athletic tools that scouts and the Blue Jay management in particular seem to love. At some point you have to actually play and put up performance numbers that can be validated. Guys like Thole and Negrych have done that to a degree, so I certainly understand Mike's viewpoint, but I also appreciate where the team is coming from. It's not a black/white scenario. I go back and forth on Colby Rasmus for instance almost daily.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#273128) #

My comment about starting/relief pitching depth was directed at the preference for relief pitching depth. At the outset of the season, it was reasonable to believe that Romero would be a viable #6 option and that you could lengthen Cecil/Lincoln to provide a #7 option until Nolin or somebody else was ready/acquired. By mid-April, Romero had not pitched and it was clear to me that Cecil and Lincoln ought to have been lengthened with the hope that one of them would be a viable starting option. The club chose to do neither. Cecil was, it turns out, the one who had a decent chance to be an acceptable starting pitching replacement. Instead the club relied on premature promotions of Romero and Nolin (and starts from Ortiz and Jenkins) and went with an 8 man pen.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#273129) #

That is a good comment, Wildrose. I don't go back and forth about Colby Rasmus though. He is a graceful and clearly above-average defensive centerfielder. He will take a walk, he will hit the long ball and he will strike out a lot. Obviously, he has the potential to be a great ballplayer, but regardless, he is a perfectly acceptable major league regular as he is.

When your club has just spent a gazillion dollars in the off-season in an attempt to compete now, it is strange to be placing so much weight on "upside" over actual performance, with the Arencibia/Blanco vs. Thole situation being the most obvious one.

Beyonder - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#273130) #

I shouldn't have used the word demote. I just meant that Neygrich should not play over Bonifacio.

It is not easy to spot the outlier -- the year you are suggesting is the outlier is: 1) Far and away the most plate appearances Bonifacio has had in any major league season (641), and 2) recent.

What makes you think he is not as fast as he once was? Just last year he stole 30 bases in 33 attempts?

Richard S.S. - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#273131) #

Back before the Miami deal, A.A. trades for Esmil Rogers and signs Maicer Izturis to be Second Base. He was in the midst of the Peavy deal with Chicago and acquiring a free agent Pitcher. One of those free agent Pitchers recommended acquiring Bonifacio. Then Miami happened.

While having a career mostly on grass, how hard is it to play on turf? Unless we are experts, we (myself included) should lighten-up on defensive complaints on career National Leaguers. Secondly, if you consider the hype this Team had, the need to be perfect, trying too hard and more, I'm surprise the defense was worse.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#273132) #

uglyone - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#273133) #

I don't think we can complain about our starting pitching depth this year, Mike.

The Jays have gone 8-9 in games started by Happ/Jenkins/Ortiz/Rogers/Nolin/Laffey this year, with those guys giving us what you would expect from depth starters - a little bit under 5ip per start, and an ERA around 5.

The team has been medicore when they've had AAAA fill-in starters on the mound this year.

The team has been horrific, though, at 16-24 when their "Big 5" SP have been on the mound. Dickey (4-8), Morrow (4-6), Buehrle (7-5), Johnson (1-3), Romero (0-2) have combined to give the jays a little over 5ip per start and an ERA approaching 6.

The starting pitching depth has been fine this year IMO, and that's even with the three most mlb-ready young depth arms (Hutch, Drabek, Stroman) sidelined.

It's the ACTUAL rotation that has been the problem. And really the only huge problem on the entire roster. The injuries to the original rotation have actually HELPED the team, not hurt them.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#273135) #

The pitching issue wasn't a roster construction problem prior to the season but rather an adaptation issue after it had begun, uglyone. By April 1, Romero was not a big-5 starter, he was in the minor leagues. By April 15 he still hadn't pitched in a live game and his delivery was being reworked. By that point, the club should have realized that he realistically ought not to have been expected to be ready for further major league action until late May/early June.

ayjackson - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#273137) #

You can't "adapt" after April 1 to your top 5 starters all being horrible. We expected a couple of them to be - they all had risks - but we were unfortunate to not be able to count on any of them.

I'd love to hear what our "adaptation" should have been, once it was determined they all sucked. And when that determination should have been made.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#273138) #

See above. Lincoln and Cecil lengthened in mid-April. Romero given more time in the minor leagues. At this point, the rotation would be Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Cecil and Jenkins, and I would feel a lot better about it with Romero reasonably suited to the long relief role at the major league club even if nothing else. I am not saying that if the club made all the moves that I think were pretty obvious back in mid-April, they would now be playing .500 ball, but merely that there is a decent chance that they would be 2 or 3 games closer and in much better shape going forward.

hypobole - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#273139) #

you could lengthen Cecil/Lincoln to provide a #7 option

Except both were terrible starters due to his Cecil's massive platoon splits and Lincolns inability to develop a 3rd pitch. It's hindsight to believe Cecil would become as effective as he has and Lincoln hasn't even done well as a reliever this year.

ayjackson - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#273140) #

"Lincoln and Cecil lengthened in mid-April."

In my opinion, this does nothing to improve the team.

Alex Obal - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#273141) #

Alex Obal - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#273142) #

You could eventually take a flyer on Shaun Marcum, who may become expendable to the Mets once Zack Wheeler gets promoted in a couple weeks...

Wildrose - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#273143) #

ZIPS has Bonifacio at .246/.299/.330 (wRC+ of 65) for the rest of the year. That seems to me to be a reasonable expectation, and reflects a reasonable understanding of the significance of his 2011 season at this point bearing in mind the rest of his career before and after.

You could have ran the same poor ZIPS projections on Bautista and Encarncion though, before their age 29 breakout seasons ( Bonafacio is in his age 28 season). Imagine where this team would be if you pulled the plug prematurely on those two lads?

Not everything is explained by sabermetrics and performance analysis, I guess the point is finding a balance between scouting and crunching numbers. How much more rope to you give Bonafacio ? I really don't know the answer, I'm glad to some degree that he's getting lots of repetitions at the same position finally instead of jerking him all over the field. He's certainly getting his chance, we'll see if it works.

Wildrose - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#273144) #

I think Cecil's splits will shrink a bit. He's ditched the slider for a hard cutter and started using the hard curveball as his out pitch. Still has pretty significant splits through 116 PA (he's absolutely murdered lefties) but to my eyes that's a sample size fluke, to some extent.

Good point. I've lost track, isn't Cecil out of options? It's hard to stretch guys out in-season to become starters , although they seem to be trying it with Rogers. It wouldn't surprise me if they tried this with Cecil at some point as well. Having Edgar Gonzalez as another left handed option may expedite matters. Cecil would have to be on board with such a plan.

Wildrose - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#273145) #

It's interesting to peruse the 2010 zips file. Jose is projected to hit .227 with 14 homers and an ops+ of 89. Encarnacion .233 with 17 dingers and also an ops+ of 89, both behind the + 93 of the immortal Jarrett Hoffpauir. Baseball is sometimes a funny game to figure out....

Chuck - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#273146) #

Having Edgar Gonzalez as another left handed option may expedite matters

Edgar Gonzalez is a RHP who is now on the Astros. Do you mean Juan Perez?

Wildrose - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#273148) #

Edgar Gonzalez is a RHP who is now on the Astros. Do you mean Juan Perez?

Yes - I'm having a hard time keeping my 27 different Blue Jay pitchers straight. I actually quite like Perez as a loogy and Wagner I flat out think can pitch.

Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#273149) #

I guess it is a matter of confidence in the judgment of management in the face of performance metrics and actual observation to the contrary (certainly in the case of Arencibia/Blanco vs. Thole). I have little confidence in the ability of club management to make decisions about players likely to outperform reasonable expectations. If one thinks that the horrendous multi-year injury record with starting pitchers is a fluke, I guess that you can retain that confidence.

Super Bluto - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#273151) #

Has the possibility of stretching out the renewed Cecil to starter status again been raised? If so, assuming it has been dismissed, why? And does the possible emergence of Wagner and Perez (and return of the other Perez) make any difference to that question?

Also, why not stretch out McGowan? If he's good enough again, great. If not and he craps the bed or his arm falls off, what's the loss?

Richard S.S. - Monday, June 03 2013 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#273152) #

Guy returning to work after picking up another load to bring in said he has a low spot on his property where the tops of trees are only a few feet above the road he drives on. We had been having our 12th straight hour of pouring rain (17 hours). He said he saw a duck, a frog and a fish swimming on a tree top. I saw no reason to reason to disbelieve him. There was that much rain.

We believe what we want to believe regardless of reality. Opinions seldom fits neatly into facts unless it's our facts.

One question, why is your opinion about the Jays important?

John Northey - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 06:46 AM EDT (#273154) #

Super Bluto: With McGowan the idea is to find a way to get something out of him. Right now he isn't doing well enough to be getting 1 IP in the majors, let alone starting after allowing 7 runs in 7 IP in AAA with 5 BB and 10 K's. The K's show he still has potential but he needs to control the pitches better.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#273159) #

The limited sample at AAA for McGowan might suggest he still has wipeout stuff but is having trouble locating the fastball. I find that encouraging. If he has to occupy a two-inning mop-up role in the ML bullpen for the rest of the year, it wouldn't be problematic.

Paul D - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#273160) #

Not sure where to ask this, so here goes - presumably Darvish will be pitching on Saturday, correct? Texas has an off day, so in theory they could skip someone and pitch him on Friday, but I'm assuming that's not likely. (Trying to pick which game to go to this weekend and would like to go to the Darvish game).

Magpie - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#273167) #

presumably Darvish will be pitching on Saturday, correct? Texas has an off day, so in theory they could skip someone and pitch him on Friday, but I'm assuming that's not likely.

Earlier this year (April 16 through May 18) Washington was just rolling over his five guys, whether he had off-days to play with or not. Things got complicated after that, when they had double-headers, two off-days, and Ogando going down. But Ogando is coming back Wednesday and Washington said his starters could use the extra day that will give them anyway. I expect he'll just go back to running through his five guys. So yeah... it sure looks like Saturday for Darvish, which is what the schedule now says.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#273168) #

Geez, there's a lot of stuff about Negrych in this thread. He looks to me like a classic tweener - not enough bat for third base, not enough glove for second base. There does seem to be a pretty broad consensus that his glove isn't major league quality. Which, with this pitching staff, is quite enough to discourage me. It was his defense that kept him from being promoted by the Pirates, not that they've ever been the shrewdest judges of talent.

Of course, we should all be starting to have some serious questions about this organization's ability to assess talent.

Paul D - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#273171) #

Thanks Magpie.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#273172) #

For what it's worth, the consensus about the quality of Negrych's defence isn't quite that. Some say that he's utterly hopeless, many say that he's currently below average (say Bonifacio level) and some say that he's average now.

It's all a question of options. Ideally, this club would have a slick defensive second baseman who also reached base some. Johnny Ray or Placido Polanco would fit in very well. Alas, the club is stuck with a series of unappetizing options, with Negrych the least unappetizing in my view.

Four Seamer - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#273173) #

I wonder how much the fact that Negrych is a Buffalo native explains the Jays' use of him. I suppose it's possible the Jays signed him primarily as a favour to the affiliate and absent the confidence that he'd be a marked upgrade on the current occupants of the position, have concluded that he's of more value to the organization playing everyday in Buffalo than part-time in Toronto.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#273176) #

Ideally, you'd start him against RHP, and use Izturis as a late-inning defensive replacement and starting against LHPs. I'd venture a guess that Negrych would hit about .285/.345/.380 in that role and play defence at about the same level as Bonifacio. I personally don't see the improvement as marginal, and the message sent by not calling up either Negrych or Thole is pretty clear. The club has its "tools" bias and is sticking with it regardless of evidence to the contrary.

Beyonder - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#273179) #

It is not a "bias" to prefer players with identifiable talents Mike. That's what tools are. I get your points about Neygrich and believe you have actually made an arguable case, but you are massively overstating it by claiming that it is clear-cut.

Bonifacio was identified by many as the steal of the Marlin's deal, and as a young player with lots of upside coming into his prime. Now maybe 140 PAs is enough for you to decide for yourself that this was a mirage, but I am grateful that the team takes a broader view than that.

Four Seamer - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#273180) #

I agree that, on balance, this is a sub-optimal use of organizational resources, although burying Thole in Buffalo is the more egregious of the two examples. I just wonder whether part of the Jays' intransigence can be explained by him being signed to fill a specific role in Buffalo, without any expectation that he would be of use to the major league club at some point, and the front office being reluctant to deviate from that assignment until the sample sizes get too large to ignore (particularly given that is one of the few off-season moves paying obvious dividends at this point!)

Paul D - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#273181) #

Mike, that's the part that worries me. I realize that you have to balance tools versus performance, and fluke versus reality, but what does it say when you seem to reward people with call ups completely independent of their performance in the minors?

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#273185) #

Four Seamer, that approach might make sense with a club that was performing anywhere close to realistic expectations. This is a club that is in last place and was expected to be competing for a division title (and not just by fans here). You've got below replacement level performance from both of your second basemen, and you have a viable option in triple A. Maybe Negrych will perform as I have said, or maybe he will perform at the same wretched level of Bonifacio and Izturis, or maybe he will actually do a little better than expected and hit .300/.360/.400 and play average defence at second and actually make a significant difference to the club.

Part of adapting is taking a look at the actual evidence and changing your perception of what the club might need. Weeks after it was obvious that there was a problem, AA indicated Negrych is "on our radar" now. The Nero syndrome.

Gerry - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#273189) #

Negrych is not on the Blue Jays 40 man roster. If the Jays were to call him up they would have to drop someone. As of today the Jays will have to activate several players from the 60 day DL over the next month or so, Dustin McGowan, Jose Reyes, Sergio Santos and perhaps JA Happ and Jose Reyes. So five players have to come off, if Negrych were added six would have to be "offed".

So who are the candidates to come off? Evan Crawford, Juan Perez, Todd Redmond, (I believe Ortiz cannot be taken off now that he is on the DL), Michael Schwimmer, Mickey Storey, Thad Webber and Mauro Gomez. A few of those might be claimed and lost if they are taken off the 40 man roster. By the end of the year Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison might be back too.

Adding Negrych is do-able but it might cost the team a player they value more highly.

Four Seamer - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#273190) #

Mike Green, I am with you entirely on the merits of giving Negrych an opportunity at the major league level, given how miserable the production has been from the team's primary second base options. It's certainly possible I'm grasping at straws, but I'm just trying to come up with an explanation beyond mere stubborness as to why the club hasn't given him a call up.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#273192) #

Gerry, while it is true that adding Negrych might cause a roster issue in a month if no one else gets injured and everyone else gets healthy when expected, isn't that a bit of an unlikely scenario on this club? And if it does happen, you'll have seen Negrych for a month at the major league level and can then make a more informed decision about where he is now relative to major league norms.

I agree though that the Thole vs. Arencibia/Blanco issue is the more egregious of the two non-moves.

Thomas - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#273195) #

With regards to the possible roster crunch, one imagines Ortiz will be placed on the 60-day DL within a matter of days. There are still some names that would have to be removed if all the players return to health with no further injuries

uglyone - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#273200) #

I'm not really interested in stretching Cecil out, given that a) apparently Morrow and Happ should be coming back relatively soon, and b) guys like Hutch and Drabek and Stroman should be working their way into the picture eventually. Cecil's been too good in the 'pen to mess with for a short-term issues, IMO.

As for Negrych, I think the interest him makes plenty of sense. The thing that is frustrating this year is that our two weakest MLB positions in terms of both current performance and track record - JPA/Blanco at C, and Boni/Izturis at 2B - also correspond directly with our two strongest AAA positions - Negrych and Thole. It seems a bit crazy not to even give them a chance.

As for who we would drop off the 40-man, I'd say Izturis isn't earning his spot. His offense is non-existent, he provides no speed on the bases, and his utility defense has ranged from "awful" at 2B so far to "grossly incompetent" at SS and 3B. He has been absolutely horrific this year, in all facets of the game, and has shown no sign whatsoever of bouncing back.

Jays' positional ranks:

CF: 778ops (3rd), .338woba (3rd), 110wRC+ (4th), +1.4war (7th)
RF: .844ops (2nd), .365woba (1st), 129wRC+ (1st), +2.6war (1st)
LF: .708ops (13th), .312woba (13th), 93wRC+ (13th), +0.2war (12th)
3B: .705ops (9th), .306woba (9th), 89wRC+ (9th), +0.5war (8th)
SS: .641ops (9th), .288woba (8th), 76wRC+ (8th), -0.1war (13th)
2B: .626ops (10th), .273woba (10th), 67wRC+ (10th), -1.6war (14th)
1B: .887ops (3rd), .380woba (3rd), 139wRC+ (4th), +2.4war (2nd)
C: .669ops (10th), .288woba (11th), 77wRC+ (11th), +0.0war (13th)
DH: .887ops (2nd), .380woba (2nd), 139wRC+ (2nd), +2.4war (1st)

RF, 1B, and DH have been great. CF has been very good as well.

3B and SS have been around average, even though the starters have been injured much of the year.

LF, C, and 2B have been awful. In LF you have a newly signed vet coming off a couple of great years, who's also been red hot the past month, so you leave it alone. C and 2B, though, are both awful now, and don't have much past history to think they'll improve any.....and arguably our 2 best position players in AAA so far this year are 2B Negrych and C Thole. And calling them up would only mean potentially losing career bench players like Blanco, Bonifacio, or Izturis. No great loss.

CeeBee - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#273211) #

At this point I think the playoffs are pretty much out of reach. I'd really like to see Thole replace Blanco and Negrych replace Izturis. I wouldn't mind some selling off of assets approaching the trade deadline, possibly Buerhle, Johnson, Rasmus, Oliver, Janssen(If no plans to re-sign), Arencibia, and any other deal to good to turn down.

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