Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Dustin McGowan is better than Josh Johnson

Dustin McGowan is better than Josh Johnson

A rehabbing Josh Johnson was touched for six earned runs on eight hits in four and two thirds innings. Not really a surprise given he was poor before he got hurt. Dustin McGowan turned in a solid two innings. Buffalo fell to Crash Davis’ old team. New Hampshire won in Portland as first round flameout Kevin Ahrens went four for four. Starter Marcus Walden went six allowing a single run on four hits. Dunedin joined New Hampshire in the win column beating the Tiger High-A affiliate. Jesse Hernandez was solid in this one, going six innings and allowing just the one run. Lansing lost to the San Diego Padres affiliate. The affiliates were 2-2.

Buffalo 2 Durham 7

Josh Johnson pitched and didn’t pitch well. Dustin McGowan pitched and pitched much better. Outside of a solo homerun to Leslie Anderson, McGowan was very solid. He struck out four in two innings of work, walking one. Johnson, on the other hand, was touched for a run in the first, four runs in the third, and didn’t get out of the fifth, where he allowed another run. He walked three and struck out three. He hardly instills any confidence he’s the guy who is supposed to right the ship here, or is in line for a nine figure contract, does he? The Bisons were relatively quiet at the plate compared to their slugging of previous weeks. Mauro Gomez had two hits, one of which was a homerun. Josh Thole went hitless over four at-bats, as did Jim Negrych over five at-bats, but least he walked. Moises Sierra had a triple and an outfield assist, while Andy LaRoche collected two hits.

New Hampshire 7 Portland 2

The Fisher Cats responded to an opening run by the Red Sox affiliate in the bottom half of the first with five in the second. That proved too much for the home Sea Dogs. Ahrens, as mentioned earlier, had four hits. Kevin Pillar had a double, two walks, and a stolen base. Marcus Walden deserves some praise as well, allowing just the one run on four hits over six innings.

Dunedin 3 Lakeland 1

Dunedin took down the hometown Flying Tigers with a three spot in the seventh. Boy, you cannot make up these team names. Backed by a strong Jesse Hernandez start, the Dunedin Blue Jays stuck around till the seventh when a two out bases clearing, based loaded Matt Newman double put the Jays ahead for good. The Dunedin squad had only three hits in this one, but they put them together in the best sort of way. Andy Burns with an unusual quiet night tonight.

Lansing 4 Fort Wayne 7

Chris Hawkins had three hits, but the Lugnuts lost in Fort Wayne, Indiana. The Lugnuts put together eight hits, but zero extra base hits condemned the full season A-ball affiliate. Starter Javier Avendano lasted only three innings, giving up four runs. Christian Lopes scored from first on a Kevin Patterson single.

Three Stars

3. Dustin McGowan

2. Marcus Walden

1. Kevin Ahrens

Box Scores

Posted by sam on Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 10:13 PM EDT.

Dustin McGowan is better than Josh Johnson | 17 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

John Northey - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#272943) #

McGowan is now up to 7 games in the minors, 8 IP 6H 5 R/ER 1 HR 5 BB 12 SO, mostly in AAA (2 games in A+). 2 IP today 1 H 1 R/ER (HR) 1 BB 4 SO. His last game was also 2 IP 1 H 1 R/ER 1 BB but 3 SO and the run was via a sac fly.

He is getting there. A few more games and hopefully up to 3 IP per game and he'll be ready for that 8th man slot or for being part of a tandem starter team every 5th day (available in relief 2-3 days after for 1 IP).

sam - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#272944) #

Jake Marisnick with two grand slams tonight

LouisvilleJayFan - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 06:18 AM EDT (#272946) #

Well, that's just showing off...

John Northey - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#272948) #

Nice game for Jake but he still is just hitting (after that game) 248/300/440 in AA. His BB-SO ratio is 5-35 in 121 PA, on pace for 174 K's in 600 PA. Being 22 gives him time, but not a ton.

Btw, top OPS for minor leaguers with 100+ PA by position (Jays only of course)...
CA: Thole, Josh: 316/387/496, 26 years old AAA (Jimenez, A.J. is doing better but in just 20 PA in A+ at age 23)
1B: Gomez, Mauro: 260/343/545, 28 years old AAA
2B: Negrych, Jim: 367/429/538 28 years old AAA
3B: Burns, Andy: 312/381/505 22 years old A+
SS: Nolan, Kevin: 275/361/435 25 years old AA
LF: Langerhans, Ryan: 261/365/530 33 years old AAA
CF: Pillar, Kevin: 329/385/476 24 years old AA
RF: Baligod, Nick: 327/387/425 25 years old A+
DH: Jimenez, Luis: 331/410/564 31 years old AAA

No one in the system has a 1000+ OPS (not even in 1 PA) while the 900's are AJ Jimenez (low PA), Reyes (low PA), Negrych, Dominguez, Oliver (A+ 24 year old DH/SS in 9 PA), Bautista, and Luis Jimenez.

James W - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#272949) #

There is one player with a 1.000 OPS. Through 2 plate appearances, R.A. Dickey's hitting .500/.500/.500.

John Northey - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#272950) #

Heh. Good point James - forgot as I was just checking hitters not pitchers. Maybe he should be doing PH duties now, might be a better use of his talents :)

Beyonder - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#272951) #

"Being 22 gives him time, but not a ton."

Unlike Anthony Gose, for whom hope spring eternal despite mountains of countervailing data. I'll say this about AA: he seems to be a big fan of all tools except the most important one. If he was putting a flag football team together he'd be doing pretty well right now.

BTW this is not directed at you John (or anyone else specifically).

John Northey - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#272953) #

No problem there Beyonder. The point about Marisnick is that at 22 he is in AA and not doing that well (300 OBP). Gose at 22 is in the majors and hitting 250/368/313 over 19 PA, 309 OBP lifetime over 208 PA. That is a big, big, big difference. Marisnick has yet to do as well at AA as Gose has done in the majors when it comes to OBP, not that either has a figure to write home about. Gose was 20 when he was in AA and he hit 253/349/415 vs Marisnick at 2 years older going 248/300/440. I know which I find more impressive. If Gose takes all of 2013 and 2014 to develop then he'd be 24 and have some ML experience plus tons of PA in AAA. Marisnick would most likely just be in his first year at AAA and maybe get a cup of coffee.

Reaching the majors for the first time at 21 is a great thing. Sometimes they still flop (such as Snider) sometimes they blossom. But the success rate for prospects who can play in the majors at 22 (even if at a lower quality level) vs those who are in AA at the same age (hitting at a mediocre pace) is drastically different.

Gose's shine is coming off though, don't get me wrong. If he doesn't either A) slaughter AAA pitching whenever he goes back down or B) start doing more up here then in 2014 he won't be viewed as the future star but more as the 'what happened to him' guy.

Beyonder - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#272955) #

Agreed John. The importance of weighting performance relative to age is one of the most important of the many things I've learned from posters on this board. Still, hitting for average is arguably the most important of the five tools for an outfielder and it's expecially important for someone like Gose with very little power, because a low average blunts the benefit of his best tool-- speed. At this point, the odds are strongly against Gose ever hitting better than .240, expecially now that he is going to have to develop with only sporadic at bats. He also still strikes out a ton for a guy with no power.

Not saying I prefer Marisnick -- just that expectations for both of them should be tempered equally. Marisnick has had at least one season when he has hit above 300. Gose can't say that.

I wonder what would have happened to Gose if he had been given an opportunity to repeat a level, and maybe have a bit more success.

hypobole - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#272957) #

I have a bit different take on Gose, as I never expected him to be a star. His hit tool will never be a strong suit, especially against LH pitching. But if he can hit a bit and continue to show enough patience to have an OBP in the .340 -.350 range, he's a very valuable player who'll have a lengthy major league career. If he can do that as a full time regular, that's a Michael Bourn. If he can do that only by being shielded from lefty's he'll still be a better player than DeWayne Wise - a guy who's still around after 13 years.

Richard S.S. - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#272958) #

Some batters cannot judge the speed of / movement on a ball enough to hit, while some do very well at it and age rarely matters. Both are obvious, no guess-work needed. It's the ones in-between that cause all the trouble, as some batters do still figure it out. I think you either learn to hit or you don't and age rarely matters. Gose is a borderline Major-Leaguer, but a Major-Leaguer he definitely is. He is not AAAA. He has SPEED, the kind you can't teach. Gose is very good defensively and he throws well. You can teach defense well enough for someone to be good at it. Throwing can be taught but it's only as good as someone's arm. What makes Gose so good can't be taught. Gose has three stars of the five tools needed. He's not a natural hitter. He doesn't hit well, BB to K ratio sucks, power isn't consistent. However, he can learn to be better offensively, just how good we will see.

stevieboy22 - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#272960) #

" Gose is a borderline Major-Leaguer, but a Major-Leaguer he definitely is. "

I would generally agree with this.. At this point, it would appear as though his floor is Dwayne Wise; exceptional defense, with limited offensive capability... Because Gose is 22, we can rationally expect him to become much more...

On Marisnik, I have come to learn that when an organization trades away a top 100 type prospect, it often means the prospect sites have missed something. I don't have the time to create a study on this, but my hypothesis would be: top 100 prospects traded before reaching the majors have a much lower success rate than those not traded...

In other words for every Grade Sizemore traded there is a multiple (greater than 1.5) of Brett Wallace/Matt LaPorta types...

If there is such a study, it would be interesting if someone could post it...

John Northey - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#272962) #

I've always seen Gose as a Devon White type - low average, low 300's OBP but a bit of power to go with plus speed and plus plus defense in CF. White came up at 22 for the first time, and between 22 & 23 he had 66 PA in 50 games with a 78 OPS+. He was in California until age 27 and was viewed as a problem child (sent to minors his last year there for a 14 game 'wake up call') while hitting 247/295/389 89 OPS+ with 123 SB and 42 CS and 2 gold gloves. In his 5 years here after that his lowest OPS+ was a 90 and he won the gold glove every year as Cito knew what he had and said 'be yourself' rather than forcing him to be something else. Two of his first 3 years saw OBP's in the 340's which was acceptable and helped him be an effective player (bWAR over 6 each of his first 3 years here). White ended his career with a 263/319/419 line and a 98 OPS+ with a solid final season in Milwaukee (277/343/459 for a 108 OPS+ over 126 games). No idea why he retired after that season, everything I can find just says he retired early in 2002.

Devo was in the minors until age 24 basically. His best Avg was his age 23 in the PCL (Edmonton) 291, his best OBP was 361 (A ball at 21), best Slg was in Edmonton again 479 next was a 412.
Gose in the minors so far best are all from last year, 21 in AAA (PCL) 286/366/419 then (non PCL) 262/349/415 mostly at 20 in AA.

Age matters a LOT in evaluating hitters. A 20 year old in AA hitting for a 763 OPS is a far, far better prospect than a 22 year old doing the same. Every study I've ever seen screams how strongly age is a factor and that doing stuff even one year earlier makes a big difference. Gose could easily be better than Devo was here. Or he could follow Sniders path and never develop further. But right now only a foolish organization would say 'nah, not going to be anything'.

finch - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#272966) #

Random question...

Gustavo Pierre...still a prospect or organizational filler?

Lugnut Fan - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#272968) #

My opinion is that he has turned into org filler Finch. He has regressed defensively this year fom the improvements he made last year. Very much a free swinger obviously, has only walked once all season.

He is athletic enough to prove me wrong and I honestly hope he does. It appears that his issues are more mental to me than anything.

Gerry - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#272969) #

Pierre has good size, good body, in BP the ball jumps off his bat. You can see why he was a sought after prospect. Pierre is 21 years old and he would be due to hit well this year to show he is a legit prospect.

Pierre has two problems. First he has just one walk this season. That works in A ball but he will find it tougher to make it work as he moves up. Patience can be learned but usually it isn't. The other knock, as LF noted is his defense. I think Pierre could easily play left field, but he really needs to hit to make it there. Which brings us back to that BB:K ratio.

In summary I agree with LF, but there is a small chance he could be an outfielder.

bpoz - Saturday, June 01 2013 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#273026) #

M Walden is interesting, he came back from an injury in 2011. So he has pitched 2 full seasons quite well IMO. He has a low ERA & is averaging 6 IP per start while being new to AA. I think he has a shot, probably as a reliever.

Dustin McGowan is better than Josh Johnson | 17 comments | Create New Account

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