Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Game Thread

Make future plans, don't dream about yesterday, hey c'mon, turn this thing around.

Atlanta starts lefty Mike Minor (6-2, 2.47) in the series finale. R.A. Dickey (4-6, 4.85) hopes to right his season and give the Jays a mini-sweep of the Braves. Game time is 7:10 pm Eastern.

Tonight's @BlueJays lineup: Cabrera-LF Bautista-RF Encarnacion-1B DeRosa-3B Rasmus-CF Izturis-SS Bonifacio-2B Blanco-C Dickey-P

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 12:02 PM EDT.

Game Thread — 5/30 @ Atlanta | 21 comments | Create New Account

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John Northey - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#272931) #

Should be interesting to see which Dickey we get. He had 3 straight quality starts, 4 out of 5, then gave up 6 runs last time.

Our 8 man pen (9 if you count Rogers) has Cecil & Delabar on one day off but both threw over 20 pitches their last game so ideally both would have today off. Lincoln is well rested (2 games off after a 31 pitch game) and is fully available. Loup had yesterday off and just 12 pitches over the past 3 games so he should be fine too. Redmond was called up to eat innings if needed. Perez, Wagner (and Rogers) are not available.

So if needed for long relief we have Redmond & Lincoln & Loup while the big 3 (Cecil, Delabar, Janssen) are available but on short leashes one would think. If Redmond isn't used today then I doubt we'll see any moves tonight, but if he is then expect him to be sent back down so another filler pitcher can be called up for Sunday.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#272932) #

With Dickey right now, you can't always be too sure how healthy he is. His record this season shows 4 good Starts then a bad one, so it might be possible this pattern holds. With decent offense, this Team should win most of his starts.

With such a long stretch of Interleague games (7 more), a bigger bench is needed. From all that was said, and all what I read, Redmond was a Rogers' backup, not a longer term fix. I'd like to see a Third Baseman called up, especially with Lawrie likely out for approximately a month (needs to start hitting first).

Cecil and Delabar can pitch the 9th if needed (Janssen rests), while Lincoln and Loup pitches the rest.

robertdudek - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#272933) #

Dickey the last time out was the same as he was the four times before. The difference was he was facing an excellent hitting team that was in form, in a very good hitters park.

BTW, Juan Francisco/ATL designated for assignment - I'd like the Jays to inquire about the price tag.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#272934) #

I don't see the Jays scoring three runs off Minor. Kid is dealing.

Alex Obal - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#272936) #

Take a bow, greenfrog. They weren't going anywhere without a post like that.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#272937) #

Thanks - they looked like they could use some help!

Still, without Simmons' error, my prediction would be intact (at least through six)...

sam - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#272938) #

Incredibly frustrating from Dickey here. Besides being generally poor this year, his inability to have the quiet inning after the offense scores has been unfitting of his label as "ace."

electric carrot - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#272939) #

agreed. no way they score 4 more runs and win this thing.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#272940) #

Hopefully when Josh Johnson returns (as an effective pitcher), R.A. Dickey goes onto the D.L. to get healthy. Otherwise his starts are being wasted unnecessarily, and the Bullpen works more than it should. The Jays may not recover enough to gain a Post Season berth, there's no reason they shouldn't still be competitive.

Gerry - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#272941) #

There must be a cross up between JP and some pitcher once per game. On the radio yesterday Jack Morris was saying he has never seen so many mix-ups. JPA is the common denominator.

BlueJayWay - Thursday, May 30 2013 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#272942) #

Arencibia is terrible and the sooner the Jays move on from him as their primary catcher the better. I just don't think it will be soon enough.

uglyone - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 03:04 AM EDT (#272945) #

Our starting staff costs about $60 mil, and they are absolutely unplayable.

no exaggeration - their performance literally doesn't belong in the major leagues.

just crazy stuff.

John Northey - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 06:18 AM EDT (#272947) #

No question Dickey, Johnson, and Buehrle have flopped as have Morrow and Romero.
ERA - IP per Start (roughly)
Dickey: 5.18 - 6 1/3 IP
Buehrle: 5.51 - 6 IP
Morrow: 5.63 - 5 1/3 IP
Johnson: 6.86 - just shy of 5 IP - just 4 starts
Romero: 12.46 - 2 IP - just 2 starts

The 'top' 3 have 10-12 starts each. Just ugly. Dickey and Buehrle are on pace (over 33 starts) for around 200 IP each but Morrow, Johnson and Romero ... there is nothing positive to say.

Meanwhile the replacements...
Happ: 4.91 - 4 2/3 IP - 7 starts
Ortiz: 3.77 - 4 2/3 IP - 3 starts
Jenkins: 3.60 - 5 IP - 2 starts
--- one game each ---
Laffey: 6.75 - 2 2/3 IP
Nolin: 40.50 - 1 1/3 IP
Rogers: 0.00 - 3 1/3 IP

So the main 3 replacements over 12 starts did much better than the 'real' rotation even if they averaged just under 5 IP per start (still better than Morrow/Romero/Johnson). I'd put Laffey/Nolin/Rogers under the 'super emergency' category.

Richard S.S. - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#272952) #

The Walking Wounded: When R.A. Dickey throws his "hard" knuckleball it makes everything else he throws much more effective. Right now, I don't think he's healthy enough to throw it very much, if at all. I think he needs D.L. time to heal (21-30 days), I just don't think he'll get it. Josh Johnson needs to throw innings, enough to get stretched out to around 7.0 IP / start. Chances are he's up here Starting the 8th of June, at the latest. I just think that's too soon. Brandon Morrow is so close to getting injured, but might be fine. I just can't tell which.

The (knock on wood) Healthy: Mark Buehrle look good ( healthy) and is pitching well. Right now he's givening the Team everything he's known for, and that's good. Chad Jenkins may just be learning how to pitch up here. Whether he stays or is sent down, he knows what he needs to work on to be more effective. Right now he gets us 5.0 IP, with more to come as he's stretched out. I'd be willing to see Esmil Roger et al make another Start or two, if it allows pitchers to get healthy.

As for the rest, Melky Cabrera needs to go on the D.L. to get his legs healthy. Someone to play Third (not named DeRosa, Bonifacio or Izturis) needs to be brought up or some of those Pitchers already up better learn a position.

Richard S.S. - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#272954) #

Through the first 8 weeks of the season, 2-4; 3-3; 3-4; 1-6; 2-4; 4-3; 2-2; 4-3; Toronto hasn't done anything great, but only week 4 was bad (Bal. 1-2; NYY. 0-4). Change that 1-6 week for a 3-4 week and this Team could be 25-29 right now. Relievers are 10-9 with 11 saves while Starters are an anemic 11-24. Relief will be winning their 20-25 games, so Starters need to win 75. That's doable, just not that likely. The only other encouraging note has Toronto not outscored by opponents the last 3 weeks (first times this year).

Verses Boston: 4-5; verses Baltimore: 3-4; verses Tampa Bay: 4-3; however verses NY: 1-8; and that's the difference between being 23-31, -9.5 GBL and being as much as 31- 23, -1.5 GBL. As bad as things are, too many games remain to give up now. Lawrie should be back mid- to late June, Reyes mid- to late June, and Melky should be healthier which stretches out the offense (as soon as Davis is off the D.L., Melky goes on).

June is a month in which trades can be made. I just don't know if A.A. can or will do anything. Just have to wait and see.

92-93 - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#272956) #

According to RA Dickey, his neck and shoulder problems are behind him and his velocity was back where it needed to be.

Richard S.S. - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#272959) #

And Pitchers are always truthfully about how much they hurt.

Magpie - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#272961) #

Dickey's knuckler last night was mostly in the high 70s, which is right where it's supposed to be.

92-93 - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#272963) #

I fail to see why, after sucking and previously admitting to be battling injuries, that RA Dickey would lie and say he's now over them and that his velo is back.

Mike Green - Friday, May 31 2013 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#272967) #

Brooks Baseball has the average speed of Dickey's knuckler last night at 75 mph, and topping out at 81. Last year, he typically topped out at 81 or 82, but averaged 77 or 78. I guess that he is throwing fewer hard knucklers, perhaps because he is trying to avoid re-injury. Somebody could probably do a comparison of the movement on his pitches.

robertdudek - Sunday, June 02 2013 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#273055) #

There are a few things concerning Dickey that I don't think have been discussed much: the change is league, park and regression to the mean.

Going from a great pitchers' park to a great hitter's park, to the DH league, and regression should add between 1.00 and 2.00 earned runs per 9 innings in expectation.

A lot of what we are seeing this year is precisely that.

Game Thread — 5/30 @ Atlanta | 21 comments | Create New Account

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