Meantime, the furor over Lawrie's antics on Sunday has not died down yet.

I suspect that the reason that there is any furor at all is because he isn't hitting much. If he was batting the way he did in 2011, this would be less of an issue. I like how Gibbons handled the Lawrie situation - he told Lawrie sharply that what he was doing was wrong, but downplayed the incident in the press.

I think it was Earl Weaver who once wrote that teammates spend more time together than even families do, and that it is impossible to hold your emotions completely in check all that time. (Weaver once got into a screaming match with Rick Dempsey in which they threw equipment at each other, and then Weaver wrote him into the lineup the next day as if nothing had happened.)

A totally unrelated fascinating fact: did you know that the Jays have played 41 of their 51 games against teams that are over .500 in the standings? Admittedly, when your team is under .500, there's a smaller pool of sub .500 teams to play, but consider this: only one other team has played more than 33 games against over .500 teams (that would be the unfortunate Astros, with 36). Baltimore has only played 23 games against superior opposition, and the Red Sox have only played 25. (The White Sox have managed to play under .500 ball despite playing only 18 games against teams with winning records.) The Jays are now holding their own in a tough schedule, and for that they should be commended.

A couple of tidbits: AA went on Buster Olney's podcast this morning and explained that Josh Johnson would start once more in Buffalo on Thursday and then make his next start for Toronto the following Tuesday in San Fransisco. He also commented that he thought this years' draft was a relatively weak one.

Also, Keith Law came out with a revised list of prospects today, and ranked Aaron Sanchez 13th in baseball his comment was that Sanchezx's performacne is finally living up to the scouting reports. D'Arnaud has dropped off the list entirely -- and not just because of his injuries according to an explanatory tweet from Law. None of the other participants in this off-season's trades (Syndergaard, Nicolino, or Marisnick) cracked the list.

Dave, that's an interesting point, but (to play devil's advocate) it's worth noting that the Jays have played 29 games at home and only 22 on the road. That's a significant advantage. Conversely (for example), Baltimore has played 23 games at home and 28 on the road.

In June, the Jays will be largely on the road and playing good teams. JJ, Happ, Reyes, Oliver and Santos can't come back soon enough.

The game is 10 minutes old and the defense is up to its usual tricks. Arencibia has dropped a strike for the umpteenth this year fooling the ump into thinking it was a ball. Bautista made a needless throw to third that reached the stands. And a couple of ugly singles got past some range-limited fielders.

And Encarnacion makes a nice pick but then a lousy throw.

Not sure if you're talking about the entire 2011 draft, or the Blue Jays picks Maldoff, but if it's the latter, I certainly agree with you -- though Beede was worth every bit of the 21st pick -- it was the failure to sign him that is looking not so great now (although Stroman is a pretty good consolation prize).

In addition to the high profile 1st and second rounds guys, the Jays late round high-upside picks have been pretty brutal as well. Guys like Dickey Thon and Matt Dean appear to have flamed out pretty quickly. Alford is beginning to look like a bad bet (not just for performance reasons), and although I have heard very little about Matt Smoral, I have never believed one additional potentially high upside talent is worth punting seven of the top ten rounds of a draft.

Morrow has forearm discomfort.....that is often a sign of something worse.

Interesting looking at the prospects we've traded away and how they're doing this season:

MLB

C Y.Gomes (25): 68pa, 5hr, 12rbi, 0/0sb, .292babip, .292/.309/.631/.940, .392woba, 149wRC+
LF T.Snider (25): 141pa, 2hr, 15rbi, 1/3sb, .344babip, .266/.333/.414/.747, .328woba, 111wRC+
SS A.Hechavarria (24): 142pa, 2hr, 12rbi, 2/3sb, .218babip, .197/.254/.341/.595, .260woba, 61wRC+


AAA

C Y.Gomes (25): 24pa, 0hr, 3rbi, 0/0sb, .375babip, .300/.417/.500/.917, .415woba, 155wRC+
C T.D'Arnaud (24): 49pa, 1hr, 8rbi, 0/0sb, .286babip, .250/.429/.472/.901, .392woba, 131wRC+ (plays in Vegas)
LF E.Thames (26): 192pa, 6hr, 24rbi, 2/3sb, .369woba, .281/.370/.479/.849, .377woba, 121wRC+
C C.Perez (22): 68pa, 1hr, 5rbi, 0/0sb, 10.3bb%, 14.7k%, .306babip, .271/.343/.373/.716, .327woba, 89wRC+

RH A.Wojciewchowski (24): 5gs, 26.0ip, 6.9k/9, 3.5bb/9, 1.0hr/9, .301babip, 1.46whip, 4.50era, 4.32fip


AA

C C.Perez (22): 60pa, 1hr, 5rbi, 0/0sb, 6.7bb%, 18.3k%, .341babip, .283/.356/.415/.771, .348woba, 121wRC+
CF J.Marisnick (22): 104pa, 4hr, 15rbi, 6/8sb, .302babip, .245/.298/.394/.692, .317woba, 100wRC+

RH A.Wojciewchowski (24): 6gms, 26.0ip, 9.4k/9, 2.4bb/9, 0.4hr/9, .254babip, 0.92whip, 2.08era, 2.43fip


A+

RH N.Syndergaard (20): 9gms, 50.1ip, 9.3k/9, 2.7bb/9, 0.2hr/9, .353babip, 1.27whip, 2.86era, 2.35fip
LH J.Nicolino (21): 10gms, 51.2ip, 5.4k/9, 1.4bb/9, 0.2hr/9, .307babip, 1.16whip, 2.79era, 2.83fip
RH A.DeSclafini (23): 9gms, 41.0ip, 8.8k/9, 1.8bb/9, 0.4hr/9, .295babip, 1.05whip, 1.32era, 2.54fip


Yan Gomes has the eye popping numbers, but in a small sample size. Snider continues to be mediocre in a part time role. Hech is hitting like a backup infielder.

D'Arnaud coincidentally is back in Vegas, and not hitting as well as he did last year. Thames is turning into just another good not great AAA hitter. Perez has been good since we traded him as is showing enough bat for a catcher, though not a great bat. Surprisingly Wojciewchowski is also looking pretty good, and might have MLB potential after all.

Marisnick continues to struggle in AA, and at age 22 he's no spring chicken down there.

Syndergaard continues to dominate jumping up a level, though he has been more hittable this year. Might have to do with his lack of secondary stuff starting to show up at higher levels.

Nicolino has been ok but has seen a big dip in his K-rate, which isn't a shock given his velocity, and is probably a big warning sign.

DeSclafini is having a helluva year in A+, but he's pretty old for that level.

I suspect that the reason that there is any furor at all is because he isn't hitting much. If he was batting the way he did in 2011, this would be less of an issue. I like how Gibbons handled the Lawrie situation - he told Lawrie sharply that what he was doing was wrong, but downplayed the incident in the press.

********************************************
He's been hitting pretty well lately.

This is a game the Blue Jays should win

it's worth noting that the Jays have played 29 games at home and only 22 on the road. That's a significant advantage.

No it isn't. Historically, MLB teams have about a 54% winning percentage at home. (Without looking it up, I'm pretty sure baseball home/road splits are much less pronounced than other sports.) The Jays to date have played 3.5 more home games than expected. Let's call it 3 just cause I don't feel like working out the math for 3.5. Given a 54% winning percentage, a team would be expected to win 1.6 games out of 3. Given a 46% winning percentage (i.e. if those games were away instead of home), the team would be expected to win 1.4 games. Overall, the extra 3 home games mean the Jays should be expected to have won 0.2 extra games. (I think that math is right.)

Remember how we were speculating about whether Brett Cecil's career was over last year?

Janssen hasn't pitched in 6 days, and gibber opted to bring Thad Weber in to a tie game in the 10th at home.

I'm assuming Janssen must be injured, too.

Last year the Jays were 41-40 at home (.506 winning percentage). On the road, they were 32-49 (.395 winning percentage).

This year the Jays have played 51 games (29 home, 22 away). Based on last year's winning percentages, with this ratio of home/away games you would expect 14.67 wins (home) plus 8.69 wins (road) for a total of 23.36 wins.

Conversely, had the Jays played 22 games at home and 29 on the road, you would expect 11.13 wins at home and 11.46 wins on the road, for a total of 22.59 wins.

So, 0.77 of a win, or almost a one-win difference. Not a lot, but not a trifling amount either. Of course, it sounds as though last year's split in winning percentages was abnormally high -- certainly higher than the previous couple of seasons, although the Jays' home/road splits in 2013, 2009 and 2007 are similarly large.

I think the historical stats Dave posted have more validity from the single-season stats of last year, which are much more likely be have sample-size flaws. I don't think it's a significant variable, and definitely doesn't offset the relatively strength of our schedule

Janssen hasn't pitched in 6 days, and gibber opted to bring Thad Weber in to a tie game in the 10th at home.

That's the bell that I keep ringing before Magpie walks me down, reminding me that Gibbons will use Janssen in a non-save situation. Something must be up. And this is especially odd given a very recent interview where Janssen said he was going to be worked more frequently moving forward, not babying his arm so much.

Sending out waiver generica into a tie game in the 10th suggests that problems abound.

So, just to summarize: Morrow is injured, Happ is injured, Johnson is recovering from injury and needs another rehab start, Janssen can't pitch in some games because of ailments, Romero has imploded, Lawrie is injured, Reyes is injured, Hutchison is injured, Drabek is injured, Perez is injured, Oliver is injured, and Santos is injured. Dickey, however, is only partially injured and can continue to pitch, but without his normal effectiveness. Have I missed anyone? The baseball gods really don't like the Jays again this season.

I think the historical stats Dave posted have more validity from the single-season stats of last year

I think this is probably correct. Point conceded, unless there is some reason to think that a particular club is likely to outperform the 54:46 norm (both last year's and this year's Jays' teams have a big home/road split - although the 2013 split just shrunk a bit with today's loss - but this may be statistically insignificant).

Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi
#BlueJays option Thad Weber, DFA Ramon Ortiz, corresponding moves for pitchers to come

Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi
John Gibbons says Casey Janssen has been sore last few days, was giving him rest. Hopes to have closer tomorrow

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Janssen has "general soreness" in shoulder and was unavailable today. Described shoulder as "a little tender."

A check on Dave Rutt's math:

Based on a historical norm of winning 54% of home games and 46% of road games, per Dave's stats, after 51 games (29 home, 22 road) they should have won 15.66 home games (29 x 0.54) and 10.12 road games (22 x 0.46), for a total of 25.82 wins.

Again with the 54:46 ratio, had the Jays played 22 games at home and 29 on the road, they would have won 11.88 home games (22 x 0.54) and 13.34 road games (29 x 0.46), for a total of 25.22 games.

By my calculations, that's a difference of exactly 0.5 wins. Not a huge amount, but arguably significant (certainly more than 0.2 wins as Dave posited).

Argh...0.6 not 0.5 wins.

Because Ortiz was DFa'd there could be one pitcher added who is on the 40 man roster and one who is not.  The candidates I see in Buffalo are:

On 40 man: McGowan; Schwimer

Not on 40 man: Wagner, Stilson

 

Wagner is Buffalo's closer.  he has a WHIP under 1

Schwimer is recently off the DL.  he has only given up one hit in 5 innings, but he has walked 6 (with 4 of those in his first two outings)

McGowan and Stilson are the "prospects" but have had limited experience in AAA.

 

My guess would be Wagner and Schwimer.

 

And if you need to go down to AA, Deck McGuire would be a long shot to cover the long relief role.

#freemarcusstroman

"#freemarcusstroman"

#rushanotherprospect

Incidentally - that 54-46 home field advantage split has remained remarkably stable for... practically forever. The 1930s was the best decade for the home team in the last hundred years, and they were winning 54.9 % of the time. The 1990s were the worst ever and the home team won 53.6% of the time. That ratio is one of the true constants of the game, like 90 feet between the bases.

Is Brian Wilson a name the Jays should look at in July?

I suppose if they're planning a beach boys reunion concert it would be a good idea?

Jeepers...... there's a baseball Brian Wilson with a freakin cool beard. Hmmmm Jose Bautista might get jealous.

Greenfrog,

That's not the right way to run the math. The comparison group should be 25.5 games at home and 25.5 games on the road.

So, just to summarize: Morrow is injured, Happ is injured, Johnson is recovering from injury and needs another rehab start, Janssen can't pitch in some games because of ailments, Romero has imploded, Lawrie is injured, Reyes is injured, Hutchison is injured, Drabek is injured, Perez is injured, Oliver is injured, and Santos is injured. Dickey, however, is only partially injured and can continue to pitch, but without his normal effectiveness.

Perhaps they were all utilizing the so-called dreaded inverted W pitching style ? Personally I think pitching is hard on the body  no matter what your mechanics might be. I guess the question that needs to be answered is this degree of injury totally without precedence? I suppose you could add Osuna and Sanchez to this list as well.

Reasonable to suppose the Jays love the inverted W, as there haven't been too many of the normal ones around so far this season

No love for Joel Carreno? 21 games and 26 IP at AA with 43 Ks and 8 BBs. I don't think he is on the 40-man anymore, but there is that space for 1...

That's not the right way to run the math

I was comparing the Jays with Baltimore, which had played 23 games at home and 28 games on the road (I used a 22:29 ratio for the sake of symmetry). Baltimore was one of the teams Dave referred to in his original post.

But yes, your point is well taken. Makes sense to me.

I watched the Bisons game on Milb.tv tonight, the play by play guy said Laroche was removed from the lineup right before the game awaiting to see if Lawrie would need to be DL'd or not, also Wagner did not come out for the save instead Carlyle worked 2 innings and blew the save. The announcers, which were Durham's guys by the way, speculated Wagner and perhaps Todd Redmond were on they're way up to Toronto. Wagner by virtue of the fact he didn't come out for the save seems like a safe bet, Redmond seemed like a pure guess.

Double post, I apologize but I forgot to mention that instead of Redmond I hope it's Stilson. I also watched the Bisons game yesterday and Stilson was deadly out of the pen. Hit 98 twice, sat 95, and I'm no scout but the slider and the change or splitter (not sure) were fooling guys and looked good to me for whatever that's worth.

Former Blue Jay Robert Coello has resurfaced with the Angels and has posted a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 innings. He's allowed six hits and a walk and struck out 18.

I noted in the paper this morning that the Jays record is 22-30, 52 games done, 110 to go.  So what if......?

The Jays play .500 ball the rest of the way, they would end with a 77-85 record.

The Jays play .550 ball (89 win pace) the rest of the way, they would end with a 83-79 record.

The Jays play .600 ball (97 win pace) the rest of the way, they would end with a 88-74 record.

The Jays play .620 ball (100 win pace) the rest of the way, they would end with a 90-72 record.

The Jays play .650 ball (105 win pace) the rest of the way, they would end with a 93-69 record.

 

The 2nd wildcard is currently Oakland who are playing at a 92 win pace.  Just out of the wildcard position is Baltimore who are playing at an 87 win pace.  90 wins has probably a very good chance to make the wildcard game. 

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report says that 86 wins will get a team into the wildcard game.  They give the Jays a 2.4% chance of making the playoffs.  The Jays just need to play .600 ball the rest of the season to get there.

You say that as if it's easy.  This team is almost certainly not playing .600 ball the rest of the way.  Not the way the injuries are piling up, and the schedule they have to play.

The Jays attempts to get all of the Bisons pitching staff some MLB time continues...the Jays recall Todd Redmond (just off the DL), Neil Wagner and Juan Perez.

 

Brett Lawrie goes on the DL.

I have very little confidence that this team can play 600 ball.  I jumped off the playoff bandwagon at the end of April.

To make room on the 40 man roster Clint Robinson has been DFA'd.

This non-stop DFA'ing business has gotten comical. Waiver claims are typically going to be replacement level players, something that seems to be a surprise or disappointment to the organization.

The Jays are entering an NL series with a bench of Blanco, Izturis, Lind and Gose.

Carrying the extra pitcher today makes some sense, but I hope LaRoche is in Atlanta tomorrow.

Thanks for the playoff math Gerry. Also since you stated your feelings on the Jay's playoff ... My feelings are also negative. But I am wrong so often.

I also just assume that everyone else has negative feelings ... ie on the way to saying not this year. But I am wrong so often.

The Bauxites that are saying injuries, well OK. But should not someone taken up the slack offensively, I mean Bonifacio & Lawrie.

The rotation ? I can see now that there is no good 6th guy. Well actually J Happ IMO is the 6th guy and half his starts have been decent.

I am seeing some definite trends in the style of AA, some very positive and others negative.

Acquiring high impact payers like Lawrie, Rasmus & Escobar are supposed to be. Well he got his man (positive)but so far no payoff. I will wait 2 more years. Same with the Miami & Met trades.

The high ceiling draft picks? He said that they were risky but he believes that is how you get super stars. I still am sold on this philosophy.

Injuries have probably been too numerous in 2012 & 2013 to most likely overcome. I saw the 2012 rotation as Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, McGowan, Cecil & Litsch. Whatever hope AA had about McGowan, Litsch & Cecil, none was realized. I really thought that we would get something from that trio. We did not get little, we got none. I thought Drabek & Hutch were not ready yet but their injuries removed any chance for them to show me anything.

2013 is just a shock to me.

I really liked 2010 ... HOF Robbie, Cito, All those HRs and the best was 4 pretty good starters. But Eveland, Merkin Valdez & J Accardo were gambles in acquiring assets. Maybe that gamble was worth it but IMO it cost us 1 or 2 wins. As the team did better than expected, we did not add at the trade deadline or later. I agreed with hanging on to the Relievers like Downs for the draft picks. I would have disagreed with acquiring a big bat like Lance Berkman. That would have increased our payroll but IMO still no playoffs. Give the ABs to some kid that had a future with the Jays like ???? I am definitely wrong. I now believe that the won/lost record counts more during the season than before the season. If 85 wins could have been 89,90 or 91 then I would have looked at it as a 90 win season, because there had to have been a bad call or sometinig that cost us a win.
The expectations for 2013 were legitimate IMO but the in season results count more.

2011 was JoJo. Acquire more assets. Marcum for Lawrie seemed very good and probably will turn out. Cecil & Morrow regressed. The influx of yuoth was nice, Thames, Cooper, Alvarez & J Perez.