"Well crying about it isn't going to make the Blue Jays a better team, unless your tears smell like pine tar. So you can go drink can after can of pine tar until your tears smell enough like pine tar that the Blue Jays start playing better, or you can go out there and find your dog!"
Or something.
If April was the month of hell for this ballclub then May has been the month of purgatory. They've played better baseball (not great, but better) and they're winning more games, but you can't shake the feeling that instead of going backwards they're now going sideways. The once heralded starting rotation now consists of R.A. Dickey, an off Brandon Morrow, a coin flip of effectiveness in Mark Buehrle, Chad Jenkins (who I believe should be given a good look as a starter until he actually proves he can't do it) and "whoever the hell they come up with next." Claudio Vargas? Dustin McGowan? Deck McGuire? Jimmy Key? Come on down!
Injuries this month have done a lot of damage, of course. Losing J.A. Happ so unexpectedly really seems to have thrown the entire rotation in flux. There have been some positives: Edwin Encarnacion seems to be smashing any baseball brave enough to go near him, Melky Cabrera smoked enough line drives all over the field you'd swear he had an addiction (smoking, get it? Ha ha? Ha? Ugh.) and the bullpen has been good enough to keep the team in games they've had no business hanging around in. Still though, they're just spinning their wheels and not really getting anywhere. They've got to get out of the garage and start a nice run down the highway soon or there just won't be time to catch up to anybody.
The Game of the Week this week is a damn fine ballgame: May 22nd against Tampa Bay in the Dome of the Good Guys. This game saw a familiar GotW matchup of Jeremy "Stairmaster" Hellickson against Mark Buehrle.
Toronto got things going in the first inning with a leadoff double by speedster Anthony Gose. Jose Bautista followed that up with one of his rare forays into right field, bashing a single there to score Gose and make it 1-0 Toronto.
Unlike last time against the Rays, Mark Buehrle was not flirting with danger, rather her more attractive and better dressed cousin Mastery. Buehrle hadn't any trouble at all through the first two innings, even striking out the side in the second, but the third inning proved difficult. With one out Jose Molina flared a ball into right field, then moved up to second on a walk to Desmond Jennings. Now two out, Ryan Roberts hit a soft bouncer to second baseman Maicer Izturis. It was going to be a very close play and Izturis knew that, charging the ball hard with the intention of barehanding the throw to first. Unfortunately he misplayed the hop, the ball skipped past his bare right hand and into right field, scoring Molina and tying the game at 1-1. The attempt by Izturis to make that play was not the problem, since grabbing the ball with his barehand was his only chance, but with a runner on second you've also got to keep that ball in front of you and in the infield if you can't make the play, which Izturis did not do. An RBI single by Evan Longoria later and Tampa Bay seemed primed for a big inning, though Buehrle managed to escape without any further trouble. 2-1 Tampa Bay.
To the bottom of the fourth now where on the first pitch Hellickson threw, Jose Bautista blasted it deep into the left field seats to tie the game. There's something different about a Bautista home run compared to other players on the team. Encarnacion may have just as much power (probably more) while Rasmus and Arencibia can park a baseball a long way too, but Jose's bombs have a sort of instant electricity to them. With Edwin or JP or Rasmus you're watching the ball fly majestically, wondering if it's going to get over the fence, but with Jose you know right away it's gone, almost every time. Maybe it's because he hits the ball so hard it's easy to tell that he got enough of it, or maybe it's because he'll stroll and watch it before it's halfway to the seats, I don't know but it's fun to watch. 2-2.
Then the pitching took over. Buehrle shook off that rough inning (which really wasn't his fault) and allowed only one more baserunner through the next four. Jeremy Hellickson was up to the task also and pitched effectively through the eighth inning, the Blue Jays getting only one runner into scoring position after Jose Bautista's 4th inning home run (and the runner was Bautista.) The top of the ninth came and manager John Gibbons brought in his best relief pitcher, Casey Janssen, to try and hold Tampa Bay.
This was one of those moves that just makes so much sense to me, and I sincerely hope Gibbons isn't discouraged from doing it again just because it didn't quite work out this time. Janssen is your best reliever, by a mile. He's one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball right now. If you're in a tie ballgame in the late innings, why wouldn't you want the guy with the best chance of not allowing any runs on the mound, regardless if you're the home team or not? Saves are all great and sexy for statistics and contract negotiations, but what about wins? (You'd think a guy often coming into tie games in late innings would score a few.) Those look awfully good on a pitcher's resume, starter or reliever. Anyway, I know I'm preaching to the choir here (for lack of a better, more original metaphor) but still, it kinda bugs me.
Anyway.
Casey Janssen came in and with one out, gave up one of the most impressive doubles I've ever seen to Evan Longoria. On an 0-2 count, nonetheless, Janssen threw a nasty curveball low and away, which Longoria stayed back on perfectly and with a short flick of his wrists, poked the ball softly down the right field line. It was a masterpiece of hitting and Longoria truly is a special kind of talent. This brought up James Loney (.360? Really? James Loney?) who battled everything Janssen could come up with until finally he pounded a ball right back through the middle to score Longoria. 3-2 Tampa Bay.
For the bottom of the ninth, Rays manager Joe Maddon summoned his closer, Fernando Rodney, to face the heart of the Blue Jays order. Jose Bautista led off and after falling behind 0-2 in the at-bat, did not fall for any of Rodney's hard but wide pitches outside of the strikezone. On the full count, Rodney came hard and inside and Jose turned on it, shooting it deep into left field with just enough to reach the Blue Jay bullpen. Bautista had tied it again, 3-3. The pitch from Rodney was almost the exact same one J.P. Arencibia had taken him deep on just two weeks earlier. After a walk to Adam Lind, Maddon replaced Rodney with Joel Peralta who shut Toronto down. To extra innings we went.
After an effective inning by lefty Aaron Loup, Tampa Bay left hander Cesar Ramos came on to face Colby Rasmus. Rasmus was 0-3 at this point, and took a weak swing to ground a pitch straight into the ground inbetween the pitcher and catcher. Yet it was one of those perfectly placed fifteen foot hits that just find the spot far enough from anybody that a guy with Rasmus's speed can beat out. Rasmus was on with a single, nobody out. The time came for everyone's favourite bunter Emilo Bonifacio (in for Izturis earlier) to bat in an obvious bunt situation, and he dropped down a perfect one that Bonifacio almost beat out at first. With the winning run (Rasmus) at second base, Munenori Kawasaki came up but bounced one to second base, advancing Rasmus to third but resulting in the second out. Mark DeRosa pinch hit for Anthony Gose (lefty on the mound and all) and showed his Veteran Experience (TM) by drawing a walk, bringing up Bautista once again.
Joe Maddon went to the bullpen again for Kyle Farnsworth (good news, everyone!) who got ahead of Bautista quickly 0-2. Farnsworth went to his slider, in a great spot low and away, except Bautista kept his hands back and flicked his bat at just the right moment, sending an easy line drive into right field to score Rasmus and win the game. FINAL: Bautista 4, Tampa Bay 3.
Statline to Chew On
59 (36,18,3)
In 1068 career major league plate appearances, that's how many walks J.P. Arencibia has drawn. Joey Votto will have that many or more by the all-star break this season. The alarming thing though is how he's de-evolved in this regard: 65 percent of his career base-on-balls were drawn in his rookie season (including 2010).
Sean Nolin
Put yourself in the cleats of a young minor league pitcher. You've been pitching well in AA for a few months, not dominating but pitching very, very effectively. Suddenly you get the call that you've been promoted to the big leagues and your dreams have finally come true: you've made it. The only problem is how unexpected this call was: you're two levels below the majors and you're probably as surprised as you are delighted. You don't have weeks to consider and mentally prepare for the possibility of your big league debut, because you're starting tomorrow against the best batters you've ever faced.
So yeah, it didn't go well for young Nolin but regardless of that I liked what I saw. You could tell he had a good idea how to throw strikes and wasn't afraid to mix in his off speed pitches. At the risk of sounding insane he reminded me of Cliff Lee, at the very least his delivery is similar. Lee also made his major league debut straight out of AA, for what that's worth.
Detour of the Week
A lot of folks are ragging on J.P. Arencibia and his lack of defensive skills behind the plate (and rightfully so) and this got me thinking how catcher defence is very much a subjective thing. So in my sleep-deprived state of mind I devised a statistic that might (maybe) be useful:
Defensive innings divided by (PB + SB attempts) X Team WHIP
I suppose you could call it CDR. (Catcher's Defensive Rating) Passed Balls are of course an important statistic for catchers, while stolen bases attempted suggests how confident baserunners are that they can steal successfully on that catcher (and the pitcher also, but we'll just ignore that). Multiplying the equation by team WHIP is to take into account how many baserunners that particular catcher likely deals with.
So by this measure:
Arencibia (TOR) 2013: 16.18
2012: 13.27
And for comparisons sake:
ML Average 2013: 14.38
2012: 11.99
Posey (SF) 2013: 14.37
2012: 10.78
Molina (StL) 2013: 21.55
2012: 18.65
There are significant flaws with this stat, of course. Teams that are especially bad are bound to have more runners on base and thus make their catchers look better in this regard, and it still doesn't take into account the nuances of catching (pitch calling, pitch framing, etc). Starting rotations that also have a few left handed starters are going to have less stolen bases attempted against them. Still, what do you think? Useless numbers, intriguing information or harglebargle?
----
In the good news department, the Blue Jays have escaped the Division of the Atrocious! And so, allow me to introduce...
Division of the Lousy --- Standings (As of May 26th)
GB
Los Angeles Angels 22-27 --
Los Angeles Dodgers 20-27 1
Minnesota Twins 19-27 1.5
Toronto Blue Jays 20-29 2
Seattle Mariners 20-29 2
Or something.
If April was the month of hell for this ballclub then May has been the month of purgatory. They've played better baseball (not great, but better) and they're winning more games, but you can't shake the feeling that instead of going backwards they're now going sideways. The once heralded starting rotation now consists of R.A. Dickey, an off Brandon Morrow, a coin flip of effectiveness in Mark Buehrle, Chad Jenkins (who I believe should be given a good look as a starter until he actually proves he can't do it) and "whoever the hell they come up with next." Claudio Vargas? Dustin McGowan? Deck McGuire? Jimmy Key? Come on down!
Injuries this month have done a lot of damage, of course. Losing J.A. Happ so unexpectedly really seems to have thrown the entire rotation in flux. There have been some positives: Edwin Encarnacion seems to be smashing any baseball brave enough to go near him, Melky Cabrera smoked enough line drives all over the field you'd swear he had an addiction (smoking, get it? Ha ha? Ha? Ugh.) and the bullpen has been good enough to keep the team in games they've had no business hanging around in. Still though, they're just spinning their wheels and not really getting anywhere. They've got to get out of the garage and start a nice run down the highway soon or there just won't be time to catch up to anybody.
The Game of the Week this week is a damn fine ballgame: May 22nd against Tampa Bay in the Dome of the Good Guys. This game saw a familiar GotW matchup of Jeremy "Stairmaster" Hellickson against Mark Buehrle.
Toronto got things going in the first inning with a leadoff double by speedster Anthony Gose. Jose Bautista followed that up with one of his rare forays into right field, bashing a single there to score Gose and make it 1-0 Toronto.
Unlike last time against the Rays, Mark Buehrle was not flirting with danger, rather her more attractive and better dressed cousin Mastery. Buehrle hadn't any trouble at all through the first two innings, even striking out the side in the second, but the third inning proved difficult. With one out Jose Molina flared a ball into right field, then moved up to second on a walk to Desmond Jennings. Now two out, Ryan Roberts hit a soft bouncer to second baseman Maicer Izturis. It was going to be a very close play and Izturis knew that, charging the ball hard with the intention of barehanding the throw to first. Unfortunately he misplayed the hop, the ball skipped past his bare right hand and into right field, scoring Molina and tying the game at 1-1. The attempt by Izturis to make that play was not the problem, since grabbing the ball with his barehand was his only chance, but with a runner on second you've also got to keep that ball in front of you and in the infield if you can't make the play, which Izturis did not do. An RBI single by Evan Longoria later and Tampa Bay seemed primed for a big inning, though Buehrle managed to escape without any further trouble. 2-1 Tampa Bay.
To the bottom of the fourth now where on the first pitch Hellickson threw, Jose Bautista blasted it deep into the left field seats to tie the game. There's something different about a Bautista home run compared to other players on the team. Encarnacion may have just as much power (probably more) while Rasmus and Arencibia can park a baseball a long way too, but Jose's bombs have a sort of instant electricity to them. With Edwin or JP or Rasmus you're watching the ball fly majestically, wondering if it's going to get over the fence, but with Jose you know right away it's gone, almost every time. Maybe it's because he hits the ball so hard it's easy to tell that he got enough of it, or maybe it's because he'll stroll and watch it before it's halfway to the seats, I don't know but it's fun to watch. 2-2.
Then the pitching took over. Buehrle shook off that rough inning (which really wasn't his fault) and allowed only one more baserunner through the next four. Jeremy Hellickson was up to the task also and pitched effectively through the eighth inning, the Blue Jays getting only one runner into scoring position after Jose Bautista's 4th inning home run (and the runner was Bautista.) The top of the ninth came and manager John Gibbons brought in his best relief pitcher, Casey Janssen, to try and hold Tampa Bay.
This was one of those moves that just makes so much sense to me, and I sincerely hope Gibbons isn't discouraged from doing it again just because it didn't quite work out this time. Janssen is your best reliever, by a mile. He's one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball right now. If you're in a tie ballgame in the late innings, why wouldn't you want the guy with the best chance of not allowing any runs on the mound, regardless if you're the home team or not? Saves are all great and sexy for statistics and contract negotiations, but what about wins? (You'd think a guy often coming into tie games in late innings would score a few.) Those look awfully good on a pitcher's resume, starter or reliever. Anyway, I know I'm preaching to the choir here (for lack of a better, more original metaphor) but still, it kinda bugs me.
Anyway.
Casey Janssen came in and with one out, gave up one of the most impressive doubles I've ever seen to Evan Longoria. On an 0-2 count, nonetheless, Janssen threw a nasty curveball low and away, which Longoria stayed back on perfectly and with a short flick of his wrists, poked the ball softly down the right field line. It was a masterpiece of hitting and Longoria truly is a special kind of talent. This brought up James Loney (.360? Really? James Loney?) who battled everything Janssen could come up with until finally he pounded a ball right back through the middle to score Longoria. 3-2 Tampa Bay.
For the bottom of the ninth, Rays manager Joe Maddon summoned his closer, Fernando Rodney, to face the heart of the Blue Jays order. Jose Bautista led off and after falling behind 0-2 in the at-bat, did not fall for any of Rodney's hard but wide pitches outside of the strikezone. On the full count, Rodney came hard and inside and Jose turned on it, shooting it deep into left field with just enough to reach the Blue Jay bullpen. Bautista had tied it again, 3-3. The pitch from Rodney was almost the exact same one J.P. Arencibia had taken him deep on just two weeks earlier. After a walk to Adam Lind, Maddon replaced Rodney with Joel Peralta who shut Toronto down. To extra innings we went.
After an effective inning by lefty Aaron Loup, Tampa Bay left hander Cesar Ramos came on to face Colby Rasmus. Rasmus was 0-3 at this point, and took a weak swing to ground a pitch straight into the ground inbetween the pitcher and catcher. Yet it was one of those perfectly placed fifteen foot hits that just find the spot far enough from anybody that a guy with Rasmus's speed can beat out. Rasmus was on with a single, nobody out. The time came for everyone's favourite bunter Emilo Bonifacio (in for Izturis earlier) to bat in an obvious bunt situation, and he dropped down a perfect one that Bonifacio almost beat out at first. With the winning run (Rasmus) at second base, Munenori Kawasaki came up but bounced one to second base, advancing Rasmus to third but resulting in the second out. Mark DeRosa pinch hit for Anthony Gose (lefty on the mound and all) and showed his Veteran Experience (TM) by drawing a walk, bringing up Bautista once again.
Joe Maddon went to the bullpen again for Kyle Farnsworth (good news, everyone!) who got ahead of Bautista quickly 0-2. Farnsworth went to his slider, in a great spot low and away, except Bautista kept his hands back and flicked his bat at just the right moment, sending an easy line drive into right field to score Rasmus and win the game. FINAL: Bautista 4, Tampa Bay 3.
Statline to Chew On
59 (36,18,3)
In 1068 career major league plate appearances, that's how many walks J.P. Arencibia has drawn. Joey Votto will have that many or more by the all-star break this season. The alarming thing though is how he's de-evolved in this regard: 65 percent of his career base-on-balls were drawn in his rookie season (including 2010).
Sean Nolin
Put yourself in the cleats of a young minor league pitcher. You've been pitching well in AA for a few months, not dominating but pitching very, very effectively. Suddenly you get the call that you've been promoted to the big leagues and your dreams have finally come true: you've made it. The only problem is how unexpected this call was: you're two levels below the majors and you're probably as surprised as you are delighted. You don't have weeks to consider and mentally prepare for the possibility of your big league debut, because you're starting tomorrow against the best batters you've ever faced.
So yeah, it didn't go well for young Nolin but regardless of that I liked what I saw. You could tell he had a good idea how to throw strikes and wasn't afraid to mix in his off speed pitches. At the risk of sounding insane he reminded me of Cliff Lee, at the very least his delivery is similar. Lee also made his major league debut straight out of AA, for what that's worth.
Detour of the Week
A lot of folks are ragging on J.P. Arencibia and his lack of defensive skills behind the plate (and rightfully so) and this got me thinking how catcher defence is very much a subjective thing. So in my sleep-deprived state of mind I devised a statistic that might (maybe) be useful:
Defensive innings divided by (PB + SB attempts) X Team WHIP
I suppose you could call it CDR. (Catcher's Defensive Rating) Passed Balls are of course an important statistic for catchers, while stolen bases attempted suggests how confident baserunners are that they can steal successfully on that catcher (and the pitcher also, but we'll just ignore that). Multiplying the equation by team WHIP is to take into account how many baserunners that particular catcher likely deals with.
So by this measure:
Arencibia (TOR) 2013: 16.18
2012: 13.27
And for comparisons sake:
ML Average 2013: 14.38
2012: 11.99
Posey (SF) 2013: 14.37
2012: 10.78
Molina (StL) 2013: 21.55
2012: 18.65
There are significant flaws with this stat, of course. Teams that are especially bad are bound to have more runners on base and thus make their catchers look better in this regard, and it still doesn't take into account the nuances of catching (pitch calling, pitch framing, etc). Starting rotations that also have a few left handed starters are going to have less stolen bases attempted against them. Still, what do you think? Useless numbers, intriguing information or harglebargle?
----
In the good news department, the Blue Jays have escaped the Division of the Atrocious! And so, allow me to introduce...
Division of the Lousy --- Standings (As of May 26th)
GB
Los Angeles Angels 22-27 --
Los Angeles Dodgers 20-27 1
Minnesota Twins 19-27 1.5
Toronto Blue Jays 20-29 2
Seattle Mariners 20-29 2
