Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Game thread

I believe the 4:30 start time is a new experiment for the Blue Jays. Day games are usually 7pm unless it is a getaway day when the game is 12:35.

Mark Buehrle takes the hill for the Jays. Buehrle has pitched better over the last few starts, can he sustain that today?

A couple of years ago it looked like Jeremy Hellickson would be a front line pitcher. he hasn't developed as well as some thought. he comes into today's game with a 5.82 ERA although his WHIP is not terrible at 1.29. he has already given up 10 home runs this season. His xFIP is just over 4 so perhaps he has been unlucky this season. Hopefully that luck will continue to be in short supply for one more start.

Anthony Gose starts for the first time this season. Given that he hasn't been hitting in Buffalo he will probably get a couple of hits tonight...baseball is funny that way. Maicer is also back in the lineup.

Posted by Gerry on Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 03:41 PM EDT.

Game thread - 5/22 vs Tampa | 71 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#272507) #

Hellickson in past years was doing it with a fastball/change combination, and in particular inducing a lot of pop-ups. He seems to have lost a little velocity off his fastball and I guess that it has interfered with the effectiveness of both pitches. He continues to give up lots of line drives, but now fewer pop-ups. His BABIP which was .240 in previous years is a more normal .287 this year. We'll see if he can adapt, but it wouldn't surprise me if the new normal for him is ERAs around 4.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#272508) #

4/5 with three steals and a triple for Gose tonight.

Strikeouts in his next consecutive 10 at-bats, with a pickoff in his one pinch-running appearance.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#272511) #

You didn't predict a double for Gose, Ryan. Last time I ask you to look into the crystal ball...

Magpie - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#272514) #

I do not remember a Blue Jays that so regularly and so often played dumb baseball. It offends me.

Four Seamer - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#272515) #

I do not remember a Blue Jays that so regularly and so often played dumb baseball.

I know there is a world of difference between "smart" and "baseball smart", but this comes as no surprise to me - the Blue Jay clubhouse, Dickey aside, isn't exactly full of Mensa candidates.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#272516) #

It upsets me that the Jays have yet to make one roster move designed to actually try and improve the team, rather than just be a reaction to an injury.

the fact that our two second base options have been so absolutely horrific this year offensively and defensively (with neither of them ever even having earned starter's credential at any point in their careers), while our AAA 2B has been absolutely killing it this year....and we have on a number of occasions refused to even give a shake up a chance despite glaring opportunity to, is more than annoying.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#272519) #

I do not remember a Blue Jays that so regularly and so often played dumb baseball. It offends me.

Yes, exactly. It's one thing to not play a difficult game well. It's another entirely to play it stupidly.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#272520) #

CB Bucknor offends me as well. The sport deserves better.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#272521) #

nice effort from Buehrle today. with better defense he could have been going for a complete game shutout. as it is, the defense probably cost him a couple of runs, and definitely cost him an inning or two worth of extra pitches.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#272522) #

Of all the things the big trade with Miami would turn out to be... was irrelevant on anyone's list? Geez, so far this year John Buck has been the MVP of all those involved in the deal.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#272523) #

Janssen in. Nice.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#272524) #

Janssen in

Standard operating procedure, once there's no longer any chance this game will have a Save Opportunity for the Closer.

It just occurred to me. Roy Halladay's a free agent after this season (there being no way on earth he can make his options kick in.) Odds of him teaming up with Vernon and Lyle? Better than 50-50, I'm thinking.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#272525) #

Standard operating procedure

Pleased to see that this is so for Gibbons. Neither Girardi nor Manuel would do this.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#272526) #

Neither Girardi nor Manuel would do this.

Girardi doesn't do it at all anymore, true. On the other hand, a) his closer is 43 years old, and b) his team is usually ahead when the ninth inning comes around.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#272527) #

Update - Rasmus now on pace to whiff 211 times this season, although Arencibia is down to 190. The franchise record remains in serious jeopardy.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#272528) #

Rasmus may defeat Arencibia in the K contest, but Arencibia deserves some kind of recognition for his 55/2 K/BB ratio.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#272529) #

Arencibia deserves some kind of recognition

This kind of recognition?

photo invasion-of-the-body-snatchers-78.jpg

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#272530) #

On a positive note, Bautista's performance today ought to be remembered at the end of the year - with the line drives to right field probably being at least as important as the home runs. There was a team-wide selfish trait at the start of the season. This thankfully has faded, and Bautista has played a leadership role, as you would hope.

MatO - Wednesday, May 22 2013 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#272531) #

This kind of recognition?

I could be wrong but I think Donald is in favour of Arincibia's body being snatched.

Oceanbound - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#272536) #

How long until the Free Thole movement stops calling for the abolition of Blanco, but instead for the abolition of Arencibia? When his OBP drops below the mendoza line?

Oceanbound - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 04:15 AM EDT (#272537) #

Bautista had the 42nd highest WPA of all time in that game.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#272539) #

Attendance was sucky, Tampa's a good Team. The Team is starting to win more consistently and apparently not enough care. I always thought the Number of Baserunners mattered, 12 is minumim, while 15 or more is good. If you can't get on base enough, you live or die with the HR. No one is hitting that well.

Magpie - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#272542) #

starting to win more consistently

It doesn't feel like it, but indeed they have won 9 of their last 15. That's .600 ball, and if they do that for the next four months, they'll finish with 89 wins. Which probably won't be good enough, but still..

By the way, Bautista hitting second was amusing for a while, but if he's going to hit like this, it behooves the skipper to try and get some people on base in front of him. If that means Kawasaki leading off and Lind or Cabrera hitting second... you've got to do it. Bautista looks to be shifting into "To hell with this crap, jump on my back everybody" mode. Which we've all seen before. It's pretty friggin' awesome.

zeppelinkm - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#272543) #

Mike, I noticed this in Tuesday's game as well. In the 8th inning rally Bautista really simplified things and ripped a single through the shift right where the 2b would have been to bring in a run.

Too bad after EE struck out JPA was up. But I digress. I did think the opposite field single from Jose sent a very good message to the team. And to hear there was more of that from him yesterday is doubly encouraging.

There is some light.

Oceanbound - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#272545) #

Bautista looks to be shifting into "To hell with this crap, jump on my back everybody" mode.

Sure hasn't felt like it, but he's hitting .365/.488/.619 in May. A Bautista who can actually line balls into the opposite field is a frightening thought.

John Northey - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#272547) #

I say keep the lineup as is for now. Things are going well and any extra PA we can get Bautista is a good thing.

Yesterday the top 2 plays in MLB were Bautista PA - 44% increase in probability of winning for his 9th inning home run, 36% for his 10th inning single. He also added 13% with his 4th inning homer. His total WPA was 1.053 - or in other words he added more than the full value of a win to the Jays yesterday (the rest of the team just kept giving it away and he kept claiming it back).

Btw, for Lind May seems to be more what we hoped for, while April was just weird. Lind in April: 244/397/311 May: 271/357/542. That suggests hitting 3rd4th/5th area makes the most sense (vs RHP of course). Btw, Lind is at just 6 PA vs LHP this season (1-6, a double, with 3 K's 1 GDP and 0 BB). I give Gibbons lots of credit for that - very smart and about time.

For OBP here is how the Jays lineup - Reyes 465 (sigh), Bautista 394, Lind 377, Kawasaki 337, Encarnacion 332, Davis 326, Cabrera 318 (thanks to a 359 May), DeRosa 308, Rasmus 302, the rest are under 250 - that's right, they get on less than 1 out of 4 times (Blanco, Lawrie, JPA, Izturis, Bonifacio, Gose).

So for ideal you'd probably go Cabrera, Bautista, Lind, Encarnacion then whoever else. Kawasaki should only be #1 or #9 as his slg is at just 288 (ick) thus ideally #9 as a 'second lead off hitter' thus giving more baserunners for Bautista without giving too many PA to Kawasaki (who you don't want getting more than everyone else as odds are he'll regress at some point). Once Reyes is back then the lineup will be much stronger. Ideally at that point Kawasaki (if still having a 330+ OBP) will move over to 2B and hit 9th if Izturis/Bonifacio keep using the wrong end of the bat when 'hitting'.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#272552) #

I had forgotten that when Arencibia came up, his plate discipline wasn't this bad. His W/K was 36/133, then 18/108 and now 2/55. The best thing I can say for him is that he has hit better with runners on than with the bases clear and that he has been spectacular over his career with the bases full (20 PAs). I'd have him batting sixth on a part-time basis with at least 1/2 of his at-bats against lefties.

Yan Gomes hit his 5th homer yesterday and threw out another baserunner. His career batting line is now pretty much comparable to Arencibia's- well actually a little better but never mind.

baagcur - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#272555) #

Bautista had the 42nd highest WPA of all time in that game

and they still only won in extra innings

ayjackson - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#272556) #

Much speculation last night and this morning that the Jays will make Sean Nolin their Friday starter.

I don't think he's ready, and would probably go with Jenkins myself, but giving a pitcher who's maybe 20 starts away from being ready and early glimpse at what it takes is to succeed against ML hitters isn't the end of the world.

On a macro level, it smells like rushing prospects again.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#272557) #

"and they still only won in extra innings"

It goes hand in hand.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#272558) #

"from being ready and early glimpse"

Should be "an" of course. Damn no-edit functionality - and with Dewey lurking, no less.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#272559) #

New Hampshire tweeting that Nolin just pushed back a day for rest. Stroman to start Saturday. Jays have another day to decide, but I think it will be Jenkins.

baagcur - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#272560) #

"and they still only won in extra innings"

It goes hand in hand.

Yep. That was kind of the point.

The more the others do not contribute the better the chance for a standout performance. Can't rely on it though

Mike Green - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#272561) #

Dewey always gives time for the author to correct the error.

As for Nolin, I guess that there aren't a whole lot of great options. Jenkins looked decent in his only outing, and I would probably give him the ball again, but he hadn't had a whole lot of work in 2013 either. The difference, I suppose, is that Jenkins will probably end up in a relief role and there is a thought that Nolin is more likely to end up in the rotation. That, and Jenkins' prior AA experience.

Oceanbound - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#272562) #

Dewey always gives time for the author to correct the error.

Unfortunately, Truman didn't.

Jonny German - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#272563) #

- The team has played badly
- Thole has been great in AAA
- Arencibia has been terrible
- Blanco is terrible

What does Anthopolous see on the other side of the ledger? "Hang on to as many assets as possible"? Seems ridiculous at this point. Thole should be up and should be given at shot at starting 2 days a week. I'd say 3 days but for the politics of benching Arencibia.

Ryan Day - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#272564) #

It definitely feels too early for Nolin - he's only made 6 starts at AA. But while it may be too early, there's probably a better chance of catching lightning in a bottle with Nolin. May as well roll the dice.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#272565) #

Yan Gomes is a year and a half younger than JP. Gomes has accumulated 1.1 fWAR this year. In roughly three times the plate appearances, Arencibia is 0.2 fWAR.

Gomes also makes significantly more contact than JP, although the non-walking is comparable.

Gomes's numbers will surely regress, and he may well be more suited to a utility role, but in the small sample that is 2013 he's been a vastly superior player to Arencibia. He's also cheaper and has more controllable years remaining. Nice acquisition by Cleveland.

John Northey - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#272566) #

I suspect the Jays are playing it safe here - if Jenkins is needed for some reason (Morrow knocked out early or extra innings) then Nolin is available for a quick call up. If not then Jenkins gets the start. That's how I'd play it at least. Remember, Morrow went 13 days between his last start and the one before it, then lasted just 5 innings allowing 5 runs with just 1 K (very odd for him).

Btw, is something wrong with Lincoln? He hasn't pitched in over a week, Oliver has pitched just once in the last 8 days (4 off now). Meanwhile Delabar pitched in the last 2, as did Loup and Janssen 2 of the last 3. Cecil threw 17 pitches 2 days ago, and Rogers 33 two days ago. So tonight we have Lincoln extremely rested, Oliver extremely rested, Cecil available and the rest should have the night off (Loup, Janssen, Delabar, Rogers). I suspect all 3 will be available for 2 innings each, but if more is needed (ie: Morrow knocked out early) then Jenkins would be called on, then sent down tonight so Nolin can start Friday. Loup and Delabar would be fine on Friday, but I'd probably try to give Janssen Friday off if at all possible too. If Lincoln has issues then he should be sent down or DL'ed.

Four Seamer - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#272567) #

I think the issue with Lincoln is lack of effectiveness. Not that that has hampered the playing time of Bonifacio, Izturis, Arencibia or a number of others, admittedly...

John Northey - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#272568) #

As to the offense... lets see how each position is doing vs the league at that position via sOPS+...
CA: 89 - bad but not horrid
1B: 109 - nice
2B: 55 - ugh. Why isn't Jim Negrych up yet (1.046 OPS in AAA, better than Reyes was doing before getting hurt)?
3B: 63 - yeah, Lawrie could've used a bit of rehab
SS: 116 - Reyes/Kawasaki = A-OK
LF: 78 - worse than catcher vs league, Davis is actually at 120 in LF
CF: 89 - Rasmus over 100, but Bonifacio's 2 for 17, 7 sOPS+ drags it down as does Davis' 1-5 effort in CF
RF: 132 - as always, very nice
DH: 111 - Lind doing well but the RH part doing better (Cabrera/Bautista/Encarnacion all over 120 as DH's, Lind at 102 vs other DH's)

So clearly the issues are 2B & 3B followed by LF then Catcher as CF is fine with Rasmus. Cabrera might recover in LF as he has had a reasonable May (859 OPS) as has the team. In April the team's sOPS+ was 93 but it is 106 in May.

FYI: For May the nightmares are...
JPA: 180/194/279
Lawrie: 157/224/329
Bonifacio: 225/244/325

Lawrie has got off easy here, but it is getting to the point that one has to wonder what is going on there. 1 for 19 his last 5 games, 593 OPS his last 10 with a WPA of -0.4 (ie: factoring in offense only he cost the team nearly 1/2 a win). Who can fill in and give him days off? Obviously you wouldn't want Bonifacio mixed in, DeRosa is really the only choice right now.

Gerry - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#272570) #

Shi Davidi is reporting that Sean Nolin will start Friday for the Jays. I have no clue why the Jays are doing this.

As a reminder the Jays thought it was a good idea to promote Ricky Romero after one regular season start in the minors. Then the Jays thought it was a good idea to promote Chad Jenkins after one start in the minor leagues this season. Now they are going to start Sean Nolin after three starts in the minor leagues this season.

I assume that Nolin will be demoted after his start and Marcus Stroman will get the next one.

Magpie - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#272571) #

I have no clue why the Jays are doing this.

Not the first time I've had that thought. And Jenkins must be wondering "What did I have to do? Pitch a no-hitter?"

hypobole - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#272572) #

Gomes is also one of the worst pitch framers in baseball - maybe. BP keeps running tabs of the best and worst and only 4 catchers have a worse ratio this year.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20618

Now here is the maybe. One of the recent weeks had a gif of JPA doing a horrible frame on a Morrow pitch. JPA lifted his body, the pitch was clearly a strike and the ump was fooled into calling it a ball.

Why would JPA lift his body? The pitch was a slider. If Morrow had bounced a couple beforehand and there was a runner on base, what would be a catchers primary focus - making sure the pitch was framed or making sure the pitch was blocked and doesn't get by him?

Wieters was consistently a plus framer in Fast's study, but he now has more negative runs than any catcher. What's changed? The pitching staff maybe?

Molina is a great framer, but the amount of command/control guys on the Tampa staff also allow him to exploit that ability. I bet his numbers would take a big tumble if he had to catch Dickey to use an extreme example.

Back to Gomes. His framing numbers are terrible, but so are Santana's. Neither has been thought of as even average defensively, but how much is them and how much is the pitching staff - I don't have a clue.

Gerry - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#272573) #

I hope some of the reporters down at the RC ask these questions of AA and not settle for the "we just want to give him a look" answers.

Dewey - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#272574) #

Hey, Oceanbound, do you remember that?! I do. I was just a kid, but I lived outside Chicago in 1948. My Dad was a strong supporter of give-em-hell-Harry, and crowed about the Tribune�s mistaken headline for days. Cubs were lousy, as usual.

Right, ayj. Don�t get complacent now. I�ve been watching.

Gerry - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#272575) #

As a reminder I interviewed Nolin shortly after he signed.

He was heavy at the time I interviewed him, as you can see from the pictures, but since then he lost 40 pounds or more and rebuilt his body. Compare to his profile picture on milb and you can see the difference in his face.

Gerry - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#272576) #

And if you click through on that interview page to sam's scouting report on Nolin when he saw him in Auburn, sam could see the potential in those early days.

85bluejay - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#272577) #

Starting with the Happ trade, I've been bewildered by most of what the Jays have done and now again with this potential Nolin move - these moves strike me as a FO in panic mode, throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks - I had just assumed that Jenkins would get the start as his line against Boston seemed okay (didn't see the game) - Have to open up a 40 man spot for Nolin - meaning they could lose someone (ala Dyson) - This just seems like a FO grabbing at any staw.

China fan - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#272578) #

Among the reasons for the Jays choosing Nolin over Jenkins tomorrow:

1) Jenkins hasn't pitched since May 12 and might not be sharp.

2) Anthopoulos has been high on Nolin for a long time. He's been publicly praising Nolin in interviews for the past year. I don't think he sees Nolin as a "one-game guy" or a "take a look at what he's got" guy. He thinks Nolin has a big future on the Jays, and this is the year to begin getting him some games in the majors.

3) The Orioles hit much worse against LHP than RHP. Here is Richard Griffin's tweet on this factor:

From: @RGriffinStar
Sent: May 23, 2013 4:58p

Why might #bluejays choose LH Sean Nolin over RH Chad Jenkins Friday? O's splits vs. LH-starters .243Avg .697OPS vs. RHS .277Avg .795OPS

budgell - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#272579) #

I had forgotten that when Arencibia came up, his plate discipline wasn't this bad.  His W/K was 36/133, then 18/108 and now 2/55.  The best thing I can say for him is that he has hit better with runners on than with the bases clear and that he has been spectacular over his career with the bases full (20 PAs).  I'd have him batting sixth on a part-time basis with at least 1/2 of his at-bats against lefties.  
I've noticed this, he really does seem to, as Cito says, "have a plan for the at bat" in these situations.  Don't have time to confirm but it seems he sees more pitches/is more selective, lets the ball travel farther in the strike zone and hits to center/right.  Were he only to have this mind set every time up.....

smcs - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#272580) #

Back to Gomes. His framing numbers are terrible, but so are Santana's. Neither has been thought of as even average defensively, but how much is them and how much is the pitching staff - I don't have a clue.

And how much is bad umpiring?

Alex Obal - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#272581) #

Yeah, and that raises the whole measure reliability issue. How big of a sample of pitch framing do you need to be confident that what you see is what happened, given 2013-vintage umpiring? Has anyone looked into that?

hypobole - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#272582) #

Here's something very odd.

I was looking at sickels gameday post comments on the 21st. A commenter (mlbprospectpulse?) said Gausman and Nolin would be starting this weekend. The Gausman news had already come out. Sickels replied Gausman would be Thursday'a POD and Nolin Friday's. He does his Players of the Day when guys make their big league debuts. I checked at the time and couldn't find anything confirming Nolin - I thought he may have confused him with Jenkins, but it puzzled me at the time why Sickels would believe him so readily. Now Sickels reply is still there regarding Gausman and Nolin, but I can't find the original comment from the poster. Seems he asked it be removed since it shouldn't have come out at the time.

Oceanbound - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#272583) #

The Nolin callup shouldn't cause a 40 man roster crunch just yet, considering it's still carrying people called Todd Redmond, Thad Weber, Michael Schwimer, etc

hypobole - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#272584) #

"And how much is bad umpiring?"

Depends on your definition of bad. Umpire Megan Fox rings up your hitter for the final out by calling a strike on a pitch 6 inches outside. The fans are up in arms. We got cheated!!!

Except Megan Fox has been calling that pitch a strike since 2009. Teams have access to that info. Teams I'm positive pass that info along to their hitters prior to the game. Hitters should and do try to foul off that pitch. And I'm guessing most teams (as opposed to fans) would be more upset if that pitch was called a ball just that one time.

To us, imperfect is bad. To teams inconsistent is bad.

sam - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#272585) #

Thank you for the kudos Gerry. I haven't seen Nolin pitch in sometime. It will be interesting to see him pitch against Major League hitters. When I saw him way back when there was real compete and ability to get hitters out. Those intangibles that tend to get lost when grading stuff.

Alex Obal - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#272586) #

Yeah, but the point stands. "Bad" as in "different from the established MLB norms" or "unpredictable" is still going to bloody up the catcher framing stats. In a small enough sample you could disproportionately run into hitter-friendly umps, or clueless umps who on your day happened to favor the hitters.

Chuck - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#272587) #

I'm not convinced that bad umpires are bad in a consistent and predictable manner. I will grant that some umpires have a proclivity to express their badness in generally predictable ways such as a propensity to call outside pitches strikes or knee-high pitches balls, but I will not accept that they are so "good" as to be predictable in their badness.

Yesterday, CB Bucknor's badness was expressed via a seeming randomness that would require expertise in chaos theory to discern. Sometimes a given pitch was a strike. Other times it was a ball. And this applied to pitches in the strike zone, out of the strike zone, high, low, on a boat, with a goat, in a box, with a fox, with green eggs and without ham. The only scouting report for Bucknor would be that he is so bad and so unpredictable that with two strikes you better be prepared to swing at anything 'cause dude is a free-form jazz artiste who don't live by no stinkin' rules.

hypobole - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#272588) #

Exactly Chuck. Players understand if the strike zone is the same for their pitcher as it is for the opposing pitcher and the ump calls it consistently.
It's randomness that drives them crazy.

Chuck - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#272589) #

I'm not sure we entirely agree. I think you are arguing that umpires who are "bad" (i.e., wrong) are at least predictable in how they are bad (e.g., always giving the outside strike). I am arguing that a good many bad umpires seem (to me, anyway) random in their badness.

perlhack - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#272591) #

Former Blue Jays scout Epy Guerrero has died.

uglyone - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#272592) #

I'd much rather see a Nolin or Stroman spot start than any more of Jenkins or Ortiz.

Doesn't really matter if they're fully "ready" or not. They'd only be coming up to spot start. this would be much different than when we called up Alvarez and Hutchison for full-time duty.

uglyone - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#272593) #

"I say keep the lineup as is for now. Things are going well and any extra PA we can get Bautista is a good thing."

indeed, last night seems to be the definition of why it's best to get your best hitters as many at bats as possible, and that every single extra PA counts.

If Bautista was hitting 3rd yesterday instead of 2nd, we probably lose that game.

John Northey - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#272595) #

Well, an easy way to see is to check Brooks Baseball.
Click here to see Buehrle's strike zone - I see 5 strikes called that were clearly balls, with just 2 strikes called balls but both were on the edge so could go either way.
Click here to see Hellickson's strike zone - I see 4 strikes called that were clearly balls, with 3 strikes called balls which were clearly in the strike zone.
So far so good for the home team, but 9 balls being called strikes is not good (some of those might have been the pitchers figuring out it was being called thus working out onto the edges a bit)

To see all pitches click here. Twice vs LHH there were strikes called balls, with just one strike called a ball vs RHH (and a very bad call that was too - dead centre).

Bucknor's overall data is here and it seems he has a weird strike zone for LH hitters (diagonal strike zone) and RH get a flattened one (wide but not high or low). Clearly a pitchers umpire.

John Northey - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#272597) #

Jenkins might be in the long man slot now, or might be going down later tonight to make room for Nolin. Ortiz or Jenkins will have to go down to make room I suspect, although Lincoln might go on the DL too as his last game was the 14th so he'd be back for the 30th that way - just one game since the 9th suggests something is wrong or the Jays have no faith in him.

Thomas - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#272602) #

just one game since the 9th suggests something is wrong or the Jays have no faith in him.

It may also suggest there are one too many arms in the bullpen.

Alex Obal - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#272604) #

I think you are arguing that umpires who are "bad" (i.e., wrong) are at least predictable in how they are bad (e.g., always giving the outside strike). I am arguing that a good many bad umpires seem (to me, anyway) random in their badness.

Start here. I've stolen the phrase "Schroedinger's strike zone" (from you!) and used it like 50 times in everyday conversation. It exists for every umpire, even the good ones.

A fastball 1 inch off the outside corner to a LH batter systematically has a higher probability of being a strike to Marty Foster than it does to Tim McClelland. With respect to any individual trial, anything can happen, but in the big picture, patterns emerge.

Magpie - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#272616) #

A fastball 1 inch off the outside corner to a LH batter systematically has a higher probability of being a strike to Marty Foster than it does to Tim McClelland.

A fastball actually on the corner has a higher probability of being a strike to Marty Foster than to McClelland, notorious for his small zone. But the players - even the pitchers - universally hold McClelland in high regard because they see his zone as consistent. Whereas Angel Hernandez...

Chuck - Thursday, May 23 2013 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#272626) #

Hypobole and Alex (if I understand his position) may well be right that there are in fact more umpires with relatively consistent strike zones, if not quite correct strike zones. And maybe the seeming randomness of a night of strike calling by a Bucknor or Hernandez is misrepresentative, to me, of bad umpiring. Maybe the state of bad umpiring is not nearly as bad as I think it is.

I'm a fan of data and understand the biases inherent in subjective evaluations, mine included. I still find consistently wrong strike zones to be a distasteful aspect of the game (it's like the guy who is always 5 minutes late but refuses to implement the obvious solution of just leaving 5 minutes earlier) but I do find randomly wrong strike zones to be even worse. Plain and simply, Bucknor and Hernandez should not have jobs in the major leagues.

Alex Obal - Friday, May 24 2013 @ 03:12 AM EDT (#272634) #

I'm not really taking a position - what I'm saying is trivial and obvious and boring, and it has nothing to do with any specific umpire, or with passing judgement on anyone or on the Human Element. (1) Empirically, different umps call different strike zones. (2) Every ball/strike call by a human ump is a random process. Until we get robot umps, no individual ump will have a black-and-white "consistent" strike zone. It is impossible. They are only human, and pitches move really fast in various directions, and the borderline between "strike" and "ball" is infinitesimally small. Some umps are more human than others. (3) It would be interesting to see at what point data on catchers' pitch framing become reliable compared to the rest of the league, where the noise created by umpire variety (and humanity) cancels itself out.

My position is that any catcher framing metric that has Matt Wieters below average must be flawed, because sliced bread is the greatest thing since Matt Wieters etc. There must be some excuse and I will make up as many excuses as necessary and this is one of them.

Game thread - 5/22 vs Tampa | 71 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.