The Jays are 12-0 when they score 5 or more runs.

I love that in absence of a real leadoff hitter Gibby has just moved the order up a spot instead of forcing an inferior hitter up top. My quibble with the order would be that Lind should be ahead of Arencibia to break up the RHB and that Lawrie probably deserves to be ahead of JP too, but overall I like the way it looks.

Tonight will be my first evening game with the Dome open and I'm quite looking forward to it.

If Ortiz falters, I'd like to see Loup come on for 3 innings. 

I'll take the under

AA has been criticized of late for some of his acquisitions and for his roster construction, but some of his depth moves (Kawasaki, Ortiz, DeRosa) have worked out very nicely. That trio has been a major upgrade over, say, McCoy, Chavez, and Vizquel (small sample size, of course). And Lind has been very good in his new role as a platoon player.

The 2005 Yankees started 11-19 and ended up winning the division. Clearly, this Jays season is an homage to that team, and it stars Ramon Ortiz as Aaron Small.

The 2005 Yankees started 11-19 and ended up winning the division.

The 2007 Yankees had a 21-29 record on May 29, and won 94 games for the Wild Card.

Maybe the Jays need Joe Torre...

Ramon Ortiz is about to win a start for the first time since April 2007.

I think he just struck out a hitter for the time since then as well.

Lind continues to draw walks, even though he's starting to scorch the ball.

As a big lind-hater, I have to say that Lind's patient approach this year is the most encouraging thing I've seen from him since his big year.

The more patience he shows, the more pitches he's going to get to hit. Pitchers are slowly starting to see that he's laying off the junk finally.

JPA could learn a thing or two from that....but I bet you JPA thinks he's having a better year at the plate than Lind is so far.

That's usually what happens when the pen is well rested.

Ortiz has been close to replacement value for most of his career.
Apparently one can notch 16 wins with a negative war.

How much is Lind's performance this year about platooning and how much is it about him having his designated good month for the year?

The 2005 Yankees started 11-19 and ended up winning the division. Clearly, this Jays season is an homage to that team, and it stars Ramon Ortiz as Aaron Small.

Aaron Small Victory?

Bingo.

This weekend's series in the Bronx just got a little more interesting...

QUOTE: "How much is Lind's performance this year about platooning and how much is it about him having his designated good month for the year?"


for me, it's not just that he's hitting, but HOW he's hitting - i.e. based on drawing a ton of walks and sporting a .400+ obp. I've never seen Lind do this before....and if he really can lay off the junk consistently, he'll be a much improved hitter.

The platoon helps, for sure, but he's never shown anywhere near this kind of patience and OBP vs. RHP either.

Monthly BB%:

SEP '06: 7.7bb% (65pa)

APR '07: 11.7bb% (60pa)
MAY '07: 3.5bb% (85pa)
JUN '07: 3.1bb% (96pa)
JUL '07: 7.7bb% (13pa)
AUG '07: ---
SEP '07: 3.5bb% (57pa)

APR '08: 7.1bb% (14pa)
MAY '08: 9.9bb% (6pa)
JUN '08: 8.3bb% (24pa)
JUL '08: 3.3bb% (91pa)
AUG '08: 5.8bb% (120pa)
SEP '08: 3.2bb% (94pa)

APR '09: 12.4bb% (105pa)
MAY '09: 8.5bb% (117pa)
JUN '09: 9.7bb% (113pa)
JUL '09: 4.1bb% (98pa)
AUG '09: 6.5bb% (107pa)
SEP '09: 11.4bb% (114pa)

APR '10: 10.7bb% (103pa)
MAY '10: 5.9bb% (118pa)
JUN '10: 6.2bb% (97pa)
JUL '10: 6.1bb% (98pa)
AUG '10: 4.9bb% (103pa)
SEP '10: 3.2bb% (94pa)

APR '11: 5.1bb% (117pa)
MAY '11: 4.3bb% (23pa)
JUN '11: 10.6bb% (104pa)
JUL '11: 7.1bb% 113pa)
AUG '11: 0.9bb% (110pa)
SEP '11: 6.7bb% (75pa)

APR '12: 11.8bb% (85pa)
MAY '12: 8.5bb% (47pa)
JUN '12: 12.5bb% (16pa)
JUL '12: 5.7bb% (70pa)
AUG '12: 4.8bb% (21pa)
SEP '12: 7.0bb% (114pa)

APR '13: 20.7bb% (58pa)
MAY '13: 13.5bb% (37pa)


Not only did he set a monthly bb% record in april - he smashed the previous one. Almost double the bb% in april as in any other month of this career.

And now he's following it up in may with what is at the moment the 2nd best bb% month of his career.

There's a chance we're witnessing a real change in approach here for the first time in his career.

of course, maybe it's just a fluke.

Lind's back has been a significant issue for the past few years - if he's found a way to work around that, then you'd expect some improvement.

He's also 29, which is a career-year type of age.

Uglyone, Lind's monthly splits are oddly consistent.  Here is the career line summed.  In April, he has drawn a fair number of walks and hit for less power than in other months.   This April was an exaggerated version of his career trend.   What is most impressive about his start is not only the increase in the walk rate, but the very significant decrease in the strikeout rate.  The reason is that he is swinging at so few pitches outside of the zone (at 2/3 of his career rate).  Platooning may have helped significantly with that, perhaps even helping him hitting against RHP because he doesn't need to make certain adjustments.

I certainly have been in the skeptic camp when it comes to Adam Lind and I will cheerfully admit that the skepticism was misplaced if he continues as he has been. 

On another note, Verlander vs. Darvish tonight.  That should be fun.

Lind has been FAR more selective than in the past.

Per PitchFX:
He's swinging at just over 19% of pitches outside the strike zone. Past ranges (2009-2012)were from 28% in 2007 to 36% in 2011.
He's swinging at just of 54% of pitches in the strike zone. Past ranges (2009-2012)were from 59% in 2009 & 12 to 65.4% in 2011.

He actually made more contact last year on both pitches in and out of the strike zone, and the quality of his contact hasn't changed much compared to career numbers.

The Jays are six games out of a playoff spot. hashtag - it's not over.

Let's call the San Francisco Giants and see if they want to play a game tonight.

Tough part of the schedule coming up- Yankees, Rays, Orioles and Braves until May 30 with no days off.  Three starts for Buehrle, Morrow, Dickey and Jenkins, and two for Ortiz, it appears.  Hence, the song of the day.

Just in time, Shi Davidi has an interview with Lind on his new approach. It features this interesting tidbit:

“You go to Vegas, it’s all about the swing, what type of swing you’ve got. Rarely do people ever say it’s the pitches you’re swinging at, or ask why you’re swinging at those pitches. It’s just having a game-plan. I had game-plans with Cito because he’d tell me what to do, and things just fell into line that year."

Granted, Cito's game plan didn't seem to help much in 2010, when Lind was terrible. But I wonder if there's a wide-ranging approach to hitting that's changed, or just Lind personally adjusting.

For their own sake, the Giants hope they <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview?gameId=330516127">play a game tonight</a>.<br>

Thanks for the link, Ryan.  Lind certainly sounds like he is developing into a professional hitter.  Good on him.

For their own sake, the Giants hope they play a game tonight.

Um - yeah. I have no idea how I posted the same message twice, two minutes apart, one malformatted. My apologies.

While I'm at it, Romero's start in Buffalo today didn't go all that well.

I found a cool site- baseballsavant.com.  Here's Adam Lind's card for 2013 on that site. It shows which pitches he is chasing this year and you can compare results by pitch location.  He is occasionally chasing pitches down and in, but that's about it.  It is also close to an area where he often drives the ball.

heh. nice timing with that Davidi article.

nice to hear more support that it might be a legitimately new approach. I have been Lind's biggest critic but I'm encouraged for the first time in years right now.

now quick, somebody teach this to JPA.

Tough part of the schedule coming up- Yankees, Rays, Orioles and Braves until May 30 with no days off.

The Jays' recent schedule was the baseball equivalent of a hidden trap containing sharp spikes with poison on them. (Worst. Metaphor. Ever.) They've played Boston away, Tampa away, and are about to face the Yankees away, with a two-game home stand against the defending World Series champions thrown in for good luck. That's one tough furrow to plow - the fact that the Jays have actually played good baseball in this stretch is a hugely optimistic sign.

Want to see an interesting statistic? Here's the number of games that AL East teams have played against divisional opponents so far:

New York 16
Baltimore 15
Boston 20
Tampa Bay 18
Toronto 23

Of the Jays' 23 games against AL East opponents, 14 have been on the road. So the Jays have played nearly as many AL East road games as the Yanks and O's have played total AL East games. Whoof. To top it off, the Jays have also played three road games against Detroit. That's no excuse for the Jays - if they're going to win anything, they have to beat all those teams - but it was a heck of a schedule to have to face when in a slump.

"Granted, Cito's game plan didn't seem to help much in 2010, when Lind was terrible."

Because in 2010, it wasn't Cito's game plan anymore. The story is out on the interweb somewhere, but Cito was "asked" to babysit Lind in 2009. In 2010, he more or less told Lind that he was going to have to start doing his own thinking.

Price might miss his next start and the Orioles have 2 starters on the DL.

The schedule is fine if they play good baseball.
If anything, the bullpen is too rested now.

Price is now on the DL with a strained left triceps.

one of the bigger problems with Lind, of course, is that he's not the sharpest tool in the toolshed.

Price might miss his next start and the Orioles have 2 starters on the DL.

That can't be right, I thought injuries only happen to teams that foolishly don't believe in biomechanics.

That can't be right, I thought injuries only happen to teams that foolishly don't believe in biomechanics.

Might want to compare the number and severity of injuries between the Rays (long time biomechanics believers) and Jays (seeming non-believers).

If you take the team of the last four days and restart the year with it, they might have gone 22-5, instead of 10-17. This team keeps playing as they are, they'll win a lot of games. If Toronto goes 18-11 for May they'll be .500. As of their last game, they are 7-7 (4 losses, 3 wins, 3 losses, 4 wins) after not playing well until lately. That means an 11-4 record over the balance of the month. I think going 9-6 (4 games under .500) is a successful month.

Starters shouldn't have to be great everytime they pitch. They just have to keep the team in all games pitched. Offense, defense and Relief all need to do their part. Most days they just have to be good enough to win, and when they're better, streaks start (7, 8, 9, 10 or more games). All teams have them. Toronto hasn't the last year or so. Now's the time to start.

Let's not get carried away. This team still is very weak defensively and that's a huge red flag. The starting rotation (which was supposed to be a strength) is sketchy. Is Ortiz going to keep doing this? Probably not. As soon as hitters lay off the low stuff out of the zone, he will be in big trouble. OBP is still a mystery to them. What has happened recently is that the obsession with pulling every single pitch has waned a little and that makes them much more difficult to pitch to. But even mediocre teams have good stretches. My feeling is that this offensive explosion and streak of pitching adequacy is much more blip than defining characteristic and I don't see any exciting help coming from the horribly depleted farm except maybe Stroman. All in, anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

I agree that a winning streak isn't sustainable with the current rotation. I have confidence in Morrow and Dickey keeping us in games, but the rest is a crap shoot. I get the feeling that we will have options galore in the second half - Nolin, Hutch, Stroman, Drabek. Let's hope we get there in one piece.

While the 10+ runs per game streak will inevitably end, this offensive boom seems more just part of the natural ebb and flow of a season. Even with this streak, we're still left with a team that currently has almost all its regulars still performing below career averages. Given their track records, I'd say there's still more boom than bust coming.

The bats are going to have carry the team for awhile (as they have been doing the last 3 games). Brett Lawrie getting hot would make a difference.

It would also help if Negrych and Thole were here.  They didn't play yesterday, and maybe a move or two will be made today. Here's a Negrych story from WGRZ (complete with cute pictures of nephews and nieces, as well as a dinger and a nice defensive play).

This team still is very weak defensively and that's a huge red flag.

I agree the teams defense has not been good till now -- but I'm not convinced they are as bad as they have looked.  I think that Lawrie's a plus defender, and Kawasaki and Izturius shouldn't be awful -- maybe average or a little below.  Encarnacion isn't awful.  Melky should be better, I still think Colby is better than average and Bautista's not terrible with a great arm.  JP I grant you is weak.  I think this defense should be near the middle to the pack -- not worst in the league.

Izturius

...the curious?  DeRosa and Bonifacio have been getting a lot of time in the infield.  Both are significantly below average defensively.  Bonifacio in LF and Melky DHing against a left-hander is an improvement defensively at this point (with Melky's injury).

"It would also help if Negrych and Thole were here."

After the game Wednesday Gibbons hinted not to expect any moves for tonight's game, and I can't fathom why they are still carrying Mickey Storey.

Thanks, 92-93.  It was wishful thinking. Kuroda has fairly significant platoon splits this year and over his career.  Arencibia so far in his career is .467/.467/.800 against in 15 PAs, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 0 walks and 6 strikeouts.  I'd still prefer Thole in there...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/storemi01.shtml may be why Storey`s with the Team.   Admittedly his Houston stint is a small sample, but his stint with Toronto is minute in comparison.   They probably need to see more.

They need to see more from an 8th RP that Gibbons won't even bring into a 10-2 game? That they have 3 options remaining on? When the MLB team has 2 out of the previous 4 days off and the 2 games they did play were blowouts where only low leverage innings were needed there should be zero need for an 8th RP.

I agree that our defense "should" be closer to average than to awful....and the fact that it has been awful is just as much an underachievement as the bats and pitching being awful. Defense should regress to the mean just like the bats and pitching.

i aldo agree that the bats being hot should just be the start of the offensive rebound, not some sort of pesk, because most of the hitters are still hitting well below career norms.

The pitching is more worrisome due to the injuries...but our pitching was so unbelievably ridiculously bad in april that even mediocre pitching fron dickey buehrle and morrow along with typical 4/5 pitching from ortiz jenkins or whoever else would still be a massive improvement.

i've got no doubt the jays will play wrll most of the rest of the year, the only question is whether they can go on an extended redhot streak at some point to really dig themselves out of the hole they dug in april.

Richard - i was happy with the storey pickup when we got him. the guy doesn't throw hard but his numbers are very good, mlb and milb. he strikes out plenty of batters, and doesn't let many on base. and hw's doing the same since his callup.

imo he deserves a chance to compete for a spot...and might easily turn into a better option than rogers and lincoln.

Career as RP:

B.Lincoln (28): 81.2ip, 9.6k/9, 3.2bb/9, .288babip, 1.22whip, 3.75era, 3.72fip, 3.44xfip
M.Storey (27): 34.0ip, 10.3k/9, 2.9bb/9, .337babip, 1.29whip, 4.24era, 2.62fip, 3.88xfip
E.Rogers (27): 142.1ip, 8.8k/9, 3.7bb/9, .355babip, 1.57whip, 5.75era, 3.76fip, 3.89xfip

i don'tmind in the least storey getting a chance...the guy coUld easily turn out to be a quality RP.

It's the old 8th reliever issue.  Everyone has taken sides about that one already.  I guess the tricky part with this particular relief crew is the reluctance to send Janssen, Delabar or Oliver out on back-to-back days due to arm health/age issues.  It's somewhat problematic because those are the three assigned to the highest leverage work, so if you get 3 close games in a row where the starter goes 5-6 innings and one goes to extras, you might be significantly affected (i.e. not be able to get platoon advantages in key situations).  I personally don't agree that it is a good use of roster space, but I get the argument.

Somebody has to be the hot dog/coke pickup guy.But yeah I agree. What the hay do they need and 8 man pen for, at least now.

Dustin McGowan has been promoted to Buffalo. Sounds like we should begin adjusting to the possibility that he might actually contribute some meaningful innings to the 2013 Jays.

With "possibility" being the key word.  Hopefully, he gets more than an outing or two in Buffalo. 

the problem with the bullpen is that the guy who deserves to go down is Rogers - I'm sure Gibber isn't comfortable using him, and despite his good stuff he's never been an effective mlb reliever, but he's out of options.

as long as the team feels the need to keep a guy on the roster based on potential rather than performance, the manager is going to want to keep an 8th reliever around, especially with the state of our starting staff.

"....Hopefully, he gets more than an outing or two in Buffalo...."

This strikes me as a very pessimistic comment. McGowan is on a 30-day rehab assignment, and he's only a few days into it, so he could potentially have 7 or 8 outings in Buffalo, or even more. Why suggest that he might only have "an outing or two"? It sounds like you're suggesting that he will be injured again or suffer a Romero-style implosion. He has a long injury history, but there's no reason to imply the inevitability of immediate injury again. His stuff and velocity, from all reports, are as good as ever. In fact the Jays have explicitly stated that they expect him to play in the majors this year.

relax, he was being a tad facetious.

Actually, I wasn't being facetious.  Anthopoulos said, according to John Lott's twitter feed, that they expected McGowan to be in TO when he comes off the disabled list at the end of May (causing eyebrows to be raised according to Lott).  My eyebrows are equally raised in light of McGowan's history and several of the club's promotion decisions this year.