Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Game Thread

Something's wrong in this house today, while the master was riding, the servants decided to play.

Lefty David Price (1-3, 6.25) will pitch the finale of this four-game set. R.A. Dickey (2-5, 5.36) will try to parse together one of his better efforts of the season. Game time is 7:10 p.m.

Tonight's @BlueJays lineup: Davis-LF Cabrera-DH Bautista-RF Encarnacion-1B DeRosa-2B Lawrie-3B Rasmus-CF Izturis-SS Blanco-C Dickey-P

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 03:02 PM EDT.

Game Thread — 5/9 @ Tampa Bay | 50 comments | Create New Account

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mike in boston - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#271849) #

Zaun is rightly derided around here for being Don Cherry-esque, but on Tim&Sid today he had some fair and pointed comments about the team's handling of Ricky (and Travis Snider) as well as a smack down of Lawrie's Twitter antics.

Well worth a listen, in my opinion.

Edmonton Marc - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#271854) #

ERA's notwithstanding, this is an interesting matchup of reigning Cy Young winners... How often does this happen?

katman - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#271860) #

Zaun URL, start 20 minutes in:

http://pmd.fan590.com/podcasts/tim-sid/ts_20130509_162941--Tim-and-Sid---May-9---2pm.mp3

Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#271861) #

Rasmus in centerfield, Blanco catching and DeRosa at second tonight against Price, who does have typical platoon splits.

I'd rather have Kawasaki/Izturis in the middle of the diamond tonight. There may indeed be an offence/defence trade-off with DeRosa, but in light of the wear-and-tear on the bullpen, I'd take the D half of the equation and hope that Dickey goes 8 innings.

Chuck - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#271865) #

If Bautista isn't throwing Longoria out at the plate when a halfway reasonable throw gets him easily, he ain't helping the team defensively.

John Northey - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#271867) #

The ump is really, really having a bad day calling balls and strikes with Dickey on the mound. Watching on gameday it seems 1/2 the strikes are called balls. Be interesting to check Brooks tomorrow.

jamesq - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#271868) #

anyone know how many of Dickey's starts last year were caught by Thole? Blanco hasn't really impressed me and Dickey has been inconsistent thus far, maybe Thole/Dickey=magic.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#271869) #

Thole caught 27 games of Dickey's last year. Dickey had an ERA of 2.87 when Thole caught and 2.23 when Nickeas caught (7 games). Courtesy of BBRef's splits for Dickey.

Blanco has not exactly been impressive out there today, has he?

John Northey - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#271870) #

Gotta say this ump must hate knuckleballs. I've seen at least 3 walks where 2+ balls were strikes, and not even close but clear strikes. Meanwhile Price got a K with pitches outside the strike zone. Either Blanco is terrible at framing or the ump is bad or both.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#271871) #

It could be that all the injuries have made AA afraid to deplete his depth at another position (for example, if he jettisons Blanco, only to have Arencibia or Thole get hurt).

scottt - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#271872) #

Not clear who would want Blanco and one has to compete with the best players available.

Ron - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#271873) #

If the save statistic was never invented would Casey Janssen have pitched in the 9th or 10th inning?

Bid - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#271874) #

how can Lincoln not throw a strike? BP fastball...make him hit it.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#271875) #

The fact that Janssen isn't 100% healthy may have had something to do with it. He has been brilliant, but you can only go to the well so many times.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#271876) #

The bullpen may be getting a bit burned out in general. They've had a relentless workload this season.

Ron - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#271877) #

Janssen was warming up in the 9th inning and ready to come into the game if the Jays scored a run in the top of the 9th.

I don't want to single out Gibby because every single Manager/Team is a slave to the save. Baseball is full of smart people and yet they continue to allow this silly statistic to hurt their ballclub.

Chuck - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#271878) #

every single Manager/Team is a slave to the save

Not Maddon, not tonight. He used Rodney in a tie game in the top of the 9th.

Magpie - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#271879) #

He used Rodney in a tie game in the top of the 9th.

No more save opportunities for Tampa at that point in the game.

Gerry - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#271880) #

The IBB killed them. Gibby should have let Loup pitch to Loney.

Delabar has walked 14 hitters in 20 innings. So it was no surprise when he fell behind 3-1 to Escobar and grooved a fastball. And lets not forget the passed ball that cost a run.

Magpie - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#271881) #

Those of you waiting for the robot umpires may be interested to learn that Houston brought in Wesley Wright to pitch, and then replaced him. Without having him face a batter. Which prompted Mike Scioscia to say "you're sh****ing me" and play the game under protest.

Earlier tonight in Tampa, when Yunel Escobar didn't like a strike call, Tim Welke pointed out that "you're hitting a buck seventy-seven, shut your mouth and swing the bat."

Ron - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#271882) #

"Not Maddon, not tonight. He used Rodney in a tie game in the top of the 9th."

It's not uncommon to see the home team use their closer in the top of the 9th inning in a tied game. The Angels brought in Frieri in the top of the 9th inning last Saturday when the score was 4-4.

Magpie - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#271883) #

Escobar was actually hitting .182 at the time of that at bat. He came into the game hitting .177, which was probably Welke devised his clever quip.

Ron - Thursday, May 09 2013 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#271884) #

Jonah Keri wrote an interesting article on the save statistic last year.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/23416/blowing-up-baseballs-most-dangerous-stat

Looks like my venom should be directed at Jerome Holtzman.

Alex Obal - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#271886) #

That Loup intentional walk to Loney looks completely indefensible. Aaron Loup against James Loney is a worse matchup than Brad Lincoln against Ryan Roberts with one fewer base open and a lefty on deck? News to me. If so, why is Loup even in the majors? But I was watching on Gameday (having my stomach twisted into knots on the 7, nice buzzkill after yet another rousing Mets walkoff), so maybe there was something more than "Longoria doubled to center"?

The Trop-catastrophe alarm bells were going off in my head as soon as I saw "Coaching visit to mound" with two out and nobody on. Why?! What good could that do?

TamRa - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#271888) #

major props for the APP ref. I wonder what percentage of classic rock fans would recognize that line?

(I wore out two separate cassettes of that album back in the day)

Chuck - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#271892) #

No more save opportunities for Tampa at that point in the game.

I know, but some managers become paralyzed when their closer has no opportunity for a save. Charlie Manuel would have never used Papelbon in such a situation. It's not clear to me that Gibbons would have used Janssen. Girardi would likely have not used Rivera. Some closers simply don't get used in tie games if it can at all be helped. That, to me, is symptomatic of the slave-to-the-save mentality, even if there is literally no save to be had.

Chuck - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#271893) #

Houston brought in Wesley Wright to pitch, and then replaced him. Without having him face a batter.

How can the umpires not know this rule? How did Porter not know this rule? Everyone knows this rule. This one is not even remotely obscure. School children know this rule.

Just what the hell is going on these days? Is there a profession with less credibility than major league umpire?

hypobole - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#271894) #

"It's not clear to me that Gibbons would have used Janssen."

Gibby has done it twice - once Casey pitched the 9th in a tie game and once pitched the 10th in a tie. FWIW, the Jays went on to lose both games after he left.

Thomas - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 07:36 AM EDT (#271895) #

How can the umpires not know this rule? How did Porter not know this rule? Everyone knows this rule. This one is not even remotely obscure. School children know this rule.

I have no idea, but that's exactly right. This is a pretty basic rule.

Umpiring can be a difficult job. However, several major league umpires are below the standard that should be reasonably expected in the profession and would lose their jobs or be demoted to a lower level if there was any reasonable merit-based evaluation system.

But, that's also only part of the problem. There have been numerous reports of umpires initiating confrontations with players (Welke with Escobar, Hirschbeck's ejection of Harper last week) and when umpires make mistakes many of them refuse to acknowledge them or explain their judgement to the media (such as Angel Hernandez two days ago or this umpiring crew yesterday). It's a stark contrast from umpires like Jim Joyce, who answered questions about the Galaragga blown call until all the reports left, or even Marty Foster, who admitted he wouldn't have called the pitch that ended the Rangers and Rays game earlier this year a strike if he had seen a replay.

Based on what we've see this week, I'm looking forward to the arrival of robot umps.

John Northey - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#271896) #

I suspect the umps are screwing themselves over. Next negotiation I suspect MLB will be a lot tougher on them, proposing a clear marking system that is public for ML and AAA (where I think they've put pitch f/x in all parks now), a promotion/demotion system, and robo-ump for ball/strike and a solid replay system manned by a non-union person.

Magpie - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#271899) #

Gibby has done it twice

Yes, and on both occasions it was at home and after the game had reached a stage when there was no longer any possibility of a Save Opportunity coming up (for the Jays - it's always a possibility for the visiting team.) Managers will use their closers in tie games at home once the Save Possibility has vanished.

hypobole - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#271900) #

Magpie, read Chuck's post above. I was referencing his questioning whether Gibby would use Janssen in a tie game at home.

Mike Green - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#271902) #

Ramon Ortiz gets the start tonight in Boston.

Hope calls for a rainout,
Logic calls for a blowout,
Joaquin calls out
"he might pitch a complete game shutout.
Youneverknow"

Magpie - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#271906) #

I was referencing his questioning whether Gibby would use Janssen in a tie game at home.

Yep. Gibbons follows Standard Operating Procedure, and so does Maddon and so does Girardi. Your closer will only come into a tie game at home once the ninth inning has been reached and there is no possibility of a Save Opportunity. Rodney has entered 13 tie games in 2012-13; all of them were in that situation.

Casey Janssen entered 2 tie games on the road last April, before he became the closer. He hasn't done it since. The 5 times he's come into a tie game since becoming the Closer have all met our Designated Circumstances (at home, 9th inning or later.)

Mariano Rivera did enter 1 tie game on the road in the last three years. It was the 12th inning, however, and Girardi may have been running out of pitchers.

Mike Green - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#271908) #

It doesn't really matter much when your closer isn't significantly better than the next guy in the chain (i.e Ward/Henke, Peralta/Rodney). It does matter (to some degree) when there is a big gap. In Janssen's case, there is the additional factor of his rather fragile arm. The logical thing to do is to not use conventional strategy at all. You absolutely do not want Janssen coming on with a 3 run lead in the ninth. You absolutely do want him to come on in a tie game in the 8th. Leveraging his talent is important given the limited number of innings you can get from him in a season.

I am waiting for a club to install a leverage colour meter in the bullpen. Green means low leverage (Esmil Rogers time), Yellow/Orange means medium leverage (Steve Delabar) and Red means high leverage (Casey time). It'll probably start with the YES network and move from there.

92-93 - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#271910) #

"You absolutely do not want Janssen coming on with a 3 run lead in the ninth."

Good thing he hasn't. Every save has been 2 runs or less, and he only entered a game with a larger margin than 2 runs once. On May 3rd he pitched an inning down 4-0, presumably because he had pitched only once in the previous 10 days.

The only reasonable explanation for Janssen's sporadic use is that Gibbons is trying to keep a tired arm healthy for the entire season and the results have been fantastic, so I'm not going to quibble with the usage. There's a reason Janssen/Oliver have the fewest IP and it isn't because Gibbons is a moron.

Magpie - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#271911) #

he might pitch a complete game shutout

He probably won't.

Ortiz, like eight other pitchers who have appeared on the mound for the 2013 Jays, actually has pitched a CG shutout in the major leagues. It was some time ago - 31 August 2002 against the Orioles.

Ortiz and Cecil have 1 shutout; Romero, Happ, and Bush have thrown 3; Morrow and Oliver have pitched 4 shutouts (two of Oliver's were against the Jays); Dickey has 5 of them and Buehrle has 8.

Dave Stieb threw 30 of them for Toronto, which is more than the next two guys (Halladay and Clancy) combined. But Morrow's cracked the Top 10 with his 4. One more and he'll catch Chris Carpenter.

Game done changed.

James W - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#271914) #

"Good thing he hasn't. Every save has been 2 runs or less, and he only entered a game with a larger margin than 2 runs once. On May 3rd he pitched an inning down 4-0, presumably because he had pitched only once in the previous 10 days."

My immediate reaction to that is: The Blue Jays simply haven't had a 3-run ninth-inning lead, that's why we haven't seen Janssen in that situation.

I think it's more likely that Gibbons would get Janssen a save in such a situation, rather than save him for a more important time (like say, a 4-4 game with the winning run on 2nd base...)

Magpie - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#271915) #

I am waiting for a club to install a leverage colour meter in the bullpen.

Managers measure leverage differently. Managers think it's worse to lose a game in the ninth inning than to lose it elsewhere. Managers also think it's much worse to lose a game in the ninth with Some Other Guy on the mound instead of the closer. This is what they believe. And the players, for the most part, believe it too. It may not make mathematical sense - hell, it doesn't make that kind of sense - but they're the guys in the room.

Thomas - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#271916) #

There was an interesting article I read this morning that made the point that Dickey's significant increase in his walk isn't because he's throwing less knuckleballs in the strike zone. Rather, it isn't primarily because of that. While Dickey is throwing less knuckleballs for strikes, there's been a more significant drop in batters swinging at his out-of-zone knucklers, particularly those missing low. That's the primary reason he's walking more batters and falling behind in the count more often than he did while with the Mets.

As for how to get batters to swing at those pitches again? I'm not sure.

Mike Green - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#271919) #

Not all managers do. The Twins were pretty careful with Joe Nathan in his prime, and he had a leverage of almost 2. It helped that he sometimes threw 2 innings, usually when the game stretched into extras. Janssen was not used optimally last year, but this year, it has been pretty much fine for the reasons 92-93 gives. The club has not had 3 run leads in the ninth.

Surely, teams which do clever things like radical shifting and paying attention to reverse platoon splits, could adapt to the reality of the talent on hand and the importance of leveraging that talent.

Mike Green - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#271920) #

I noticed that Dickey's knucklers that start out at the knees and drop should be quite easy to lay off. It seems to me that he is throwing more of them because the floater hasn't been floating as much perhaps because of delivery issues arising from the upper back pain. I got the feeling from the Tampa broadcast last night that their hitting coach had simply instructed batters to try to lay off every knuckler below the thighs.

Magpie - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#271927) #

But even Nathan's usage looks pretty conventional. He pitched 460 games over six seasons for Minnesota. He pitched more than 1.0 innings just 29 times, and yes, more than half of those (16 times) came when the game went into extra innings. There were 13 times when Nathan entered the game in the 8th inning, and ended up recording anywhere from four to six outs.

Nathan entered a game in the 8th inning just 24 times in those six seasons. Exactly one-third of those were Gotta-Get-Some-Work-In outings (starting the 8th inning with his team losing, on the road, by at least 3 and as many as 15 runs.) Most of the rest (11 times) were your conventional four out save - two out, ahead by one or two, runners on base. But even that was generally happening only two or three times a season.

By the way - Dickey hasn't found his hard knuckleball yet, which makes him more or less just your regular knuckleballer. Which is not chopped liver, but it's not what he's been these last two years.

Mike Green - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#271932) #

You're probably right, Magpie. Change will come when a forward-thinking GM, a Branch Rickey or a Bill Veeck, hires a forward-thinking Manager.

It could happen in Tampa if the Rays end up converting a starting pitcher to an ace reliever because of arm health issues. I am pretty sure that Maddon would adapt to that situation. Almost all of Tampa's starters who make it through their system have stayed pretty healthy.

greenfrog - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#271933) #

So, at what point would it be fair to say about the 2013 season, "stick a fork in it"? Look at the AL East standings - you've got three teams playing very well that are miles ahead of the Jays. It's early May and the games are already starting to feel like must-win games. Reversals, even dramatic ones, are possible, but the Jays are in a very bad place. And the team still doesn't look a whole lot better than it did in April. As Dickey said, they're not playing very smart baseball.

I say they're still alive, but only barely. Two or three more weeks of sub-.400 ball and you can forget it, IMHO.

Magpie - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#271935) #

Change will come when a forward-thinking GM, a Branch Rickey or a Bill Veeck, hires a forward-thinking Manager.

You'll still need very specific circumstances. (I wrote about this years ago!) You need a manager who's absolutely certain of his job security, and is willing to take the heat when an unconventional strategy blows up on him. All strategies blow up on you sooner or later, but you only have to put up with heat when you're bucking the established practise. (The worst second guessing of all, the most damaging, comes from inside the clubhouse, of course. You need to have established a reputation to get away with this sort of thing.)

You can't have an established closer, or an obvious claimant to the job. Saves are money, when it comes contract time or when you're meeting with the arbitrator. This is why closers expect to be allowed to get the cheap and easy ones. It's their due, it's their reward for the tough ones.

Finally. It's got to work. Right away. If your team blows four ninth inning leads in the first three weeks - you have to scrap it. You just have to.

Magpie - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#271939) #

This might be an opportune moment to provide a link to a great big Data Table from a few years back, when I went through the Game Logs of the Top 100 pitchers in career saves, and determined how many outs were required to record each of those saves. Nowadays the three-outs-or-less save accounts for about 90% of a closer's save total - the low man, only 78.1% (at that time) of his saves requiring 3 outs or less, was Mariano Rivera. Trevor Hoffmann was at 90.9%, Joe Nathan was at 95.5%, and guys like Borowski and Fuentes were over 98%.

Until the 1980s, the three-outs-or-less save generally accounted for less than 50% of a closer's career total. Roy Face (56.4% was the only exception.) Then in the 1980s, you get Orosco (50.)%) , Righetti (57.1), Reardon (58.6) and the trend has continued ever since, until we get to Nathan and Hoffmann. The last guys to crack the Top 100 while getting less than half their saves the short way were Roger McDowell, Steve Bedrosian, Jay Howell, and the Quiz.

Dewey - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#271947) #

“There was an interesting article I read this morning that made the point that Dickey's significant increase in his walk [-rate] isn’t because he's throwing less knuckleballs in the strike zone. . . . “

Thomas, you surprise me. Think about it. How does one throw “less” knuckleballs?   Knuckleballs can be counted; so one can throw “fewer” of them -- but I don’t think you mean he’s throwing something-less-than-a-knuckler, do you? I spent some time just now googling “less and fewer”, and these are a few of the tips I came across:

The word 'less' should be used for a single item (e.g., less time); whereas, 'fewer' should be used when there is more than one item (e.g., fewer mice).

The basic rule is that you use less with mass nouns and fewer with count nouns. I have less stuff.   I have fewer things.

Yes, I know, it’s a vexed matter; and some bauxites are impatient about discussing it. (And, of course, there are always exceptions to this usage.)   But it’s worth getting right; and knowing the difference might even come in handy some day.   Sort of like learning how to bunt. The old fundamentals.

hypobole - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#271952) #

Dewey, next time could you make your point using less words. No, fewer words. Sorry Dewey, couldn't resist.

greenfrog - Friday, May 10 2013 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#271954) #

Sometimes less is more.

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