Jays are facing 3 straight lefties this week, so it'll be interesting to see how Gibbons juggles the lineup.

Given that Buehrle's FB currently averages 84.7 MPH, "cajole" is the right word.

I don't mind having Blanco as the backup C when Arencibia is playing 4 out of 5 games, but when Blanco gets starts without Dickey on the mound it's time to #FreeThole.

I see Griffin is suggesting Gibbons shouldn't be "fired", but made a pro scout, and put in Fasano as manager! Article here

Are you suggesting that everyday catching is taking its Thole on Arencibia?

So the good guys have Buehrle (6.43 ERA), Happ (3.98), and Romero (6.75).
The Rays have Hellickson (4.71 ERA), Hernandez (5.28) and Moore (1.95).

This is a series the Jays will be lucky to get one win out of, yet due to their spot in the standings 2 wins are really needed and 3 ideally.  Of course, the Rays feel the same as they are 5 1/2 out, 2 games below 500, 4 out of a playoff slot.  The Jays are now 8 games out of a playoff slot.

Btw, the Astros are the only team worse than the Jays in the AL right now with the Angels just 1 loss ahead of the Jays.  Jays are one game ahead of Miami, 1/2 game behind the Cubs, and that's it for teams below or close to the Jays.  Ick.  Who'd have thought the Jays would be BEHIND Miami at this point?

The gauntlet has been thrown down, greenfrog.  This will not be forgotten.

Errr, make that 1 game ahead of Miami...sheesh, long day.

As often happens, some of us assume that Gibbons is just too stupid to notice that Blanco is a worse hitter than JPA, when in fact Gibbons has a specific reason for putting Blanco into the lineup. He explained just now that he's trying to get Buehrle out of his slump, so he's experimenting with a different catcher for him.

Look, it might be a failed experiment, it might not work, but at least it's a specific reason.

The gauntlet has been thrown down, greenfrog. This will not be forgotten.

Some might call it a gauntlet. Others have called it a dusty oversized knuckleball catcher's mitt. And it has been thrown down, sir.

"As often happens, some of us assume that Gibbons is just too stupid to notice that Blanco is a worse hitter than JPA,"

I must be missing posts from this thread.

"I must be missing posts from this thread."

This gave me a good chuckle.

experimenting with a different catcher

That's one way to put it. I'd start Blanco here myself, and that's precisely why. Might also ponder DHing Arencibia against Hellickson and his changeup, but I'm in no hurry to bench Lind or Encarnacion, so it's not a huge deal.

I'm not sure how you can spin demoting Gibbons to a scout as anything other than a firing. Depending on what his contract says, it may be impossible.

Anyway, I think Gibbons is safe for a while. AA seems to have a personal relation with him, and in general, sacking your new manager a month into the season would reflect poorly on a GM. I'd guess that Mottola and Walker are pretty close to the firing line, though.

"....I must be missing posts from this thread...."

You missed your own post? The one that implied that there couldn't possibly be any good reason for Blanco being in the lineup without Dickey?

CF, the implication is pretty clear to me.  92-93 believes that Josh Thole should be called up now.  That is not, however, Gibbons' decision.  It (implicitly) involves an acknowledgement by the organization that Arencibia is not good enough to be an everyday catcher.  The club, to date, has not been willing to acknowledge what seems to be pretty clear to many or most of us.

Point is, as the backup catcher's share of playing time approaches 100% (and his share of non-knuckleballer playing time starts to exceed 0%), it becomes more important that the backup catcher can hit a little.

Everyone agrees that Thole should come up soon. I don't see anyone arguing about that. And it certainly wasn't what I was debating.

The debate is what Gibbons should do in the meantime, when he has JPA and Blanco on the roster and no Thole. I was reacting to 92-93's assumption that JPA should play 4 games out of 5 games -- obviously a reference to the non-Dickey games. My point is that Gibbons might have a reason to play Blanco in other games, given how poorly JPA has done with Buehrle. To assume that JPA should be playing 4 games out of 5 is an assumption that there couldn't be an intelligent reason to deviate from that.

For what it's worth, here is Richard Griffin's argument about why it makes sense to sit JPA tonight:

@RGriffinStar 35m
No Arencibia good isolated decision by Gibbons. JP always family and friends at Trop and is 2-for-last-26 0BB 12K and .137 lifetime

Anthopoulos was on the radio today, and said some interesting things on a few of our favorite subjects, including Negrych, Gose, Nolin, Sanchez and Stroman. I'm borrowing the excerpts below from a summary in the comments section of the Bluebird Banter website, and I hope this is not a copyright violation, but it gives plenty of food for discussion:

*On Jim Negrych: lack of promotion has nothing to do with his not being on 40-man, but Izturis and Bonifacio just has longer MLB career showing that they are way below career average. Negrych is now “on the radar” more than he ever used to be. If he continues to play like this, AA will be talking more about him going forward.
*Jose Reyes is in walking boot now, will be out of boot and cast by mid-May… won’t “surprise” AA to see him back by end of June.
*Gose has gotten off to “solid start” but his BA is “not where it needs to be”, Sierra had a good start, Sean Nolin will go to New Hampshire in 2-3 days, AA expects Nolin to be in Toronto this season. Sanchez will go up to NH this season. Stroman throwing 94-96 and very well. He will start in Dunedin, will be sent to NH if he does well. AA does not rule out seeing Stroman in Toronto by the end of the year.

So - how's the season goin'? Oh, that bad, really...

Let's see - we've no real hot hitter - not even one. We've no real hot starter - not even one. So, people are sayin'; lets fire the big belly sittin' on the end of the bench peein' his pants and lookin' from one losers face to the other trying to find lightening in at least one of the translucent bottles taking up space on the bench. Sigh - not the way we all had it figured in February, eh?

Fortunately, while I am a bit anal about the Jays (NO SHIT - interjects She who...) I have other interests that let me get my mind off Armageddon; day trading (going nicely thank you - always seems to when the market is going up(ish)), reading about the Seahawks off-season (very yummy) and the occasion imbibe of a variety of liquid from a country to the north of Hadrian's Wall.

I am not ready to slaughter this fattened pig just yet... my experience of big trades has been that they seem to work better in the second year - sigh - however, I just didn't see this many guys performing so poorly so soon. AND - we still have to face our biggest problem going forward: Mark Buehrle and his 84.7 mph "blazing fastball" - 2013 $11 million (yuck), 2014 $18 million (yikes), 2015 $19 million (19 freakin' million - YUCKY YIKES). I wonder if a wee dram + recreational drugs works better than just a wee dram - might be time to do a field test.

Come on Jays pull those jock straps up and become the men we know you can be ! Don't pull them too far up however, I understand the Vienna Boys Choir has no more vacancies for their upcoming season.

Mark Buehrle and his 84.7 mph "blazing fastball"

Buehrle's always thrown the ball in the mid 80s and made his living by pitching. He threw like this when he was one of the best pitchers in the league, and playing half his games in one of the best HR parks in the league. It's not like the hitters have all of a sudden caught up with his heater. Whatever his problem, I doubt that's it.

Which is not to say "don't worry, he'll be fine." Buehrle sort of seems like a Tom Glavine type, and Glavine pitched effectively - and with Buehrle-like durability - until he was 40. But Glavine was quite a bit better than Buehrle to start with - harder to hit, very hard to hit HRs against. When you start sliding down the hill, it's generally the guys who start nearest the top who take the longest to hit the bottom.

I generally agree but wonder how much margin Buehrle has with respect to his declining velocity. Up to 2011, he had always thrown at least 86.5 MPH on average. Since 2010, his average FB velocity is 86.0, 85.6, 85.0 (pitching in the NL), 84.7.

My question is, how low can you go? These increments seem small but they add up, and consider that Buerhle started from a lower baseline. I recall a scout on Baseball Prospectus this off-season saying, somewhat cryptically, that Buehrle "isn't the same guy he was two years ago."

It reminds me of Hemingway's description of how a person goes bankrupt: "Gradually. Then suddenly." Case in point: Doc Halladay (perhaps).

Up to 2011, he had always thrown at least 86.5 MPH on average

Sorry - that should read "at least 85.5 MPH on average."

Also consider how much difference a couple of MPH has made to Brett Cecil - the difference, apparently, between a fringe bullpen arm and an elite reliever (if he keeps up his 2013 performance).

Perhaps Buehrle should break out the weighted balls this off-season.

Okay, seriously. How does Jose Molina do it?

It's genetic.

Ballgame.

Yesterday was fun wasn't it?

Bonifacio's career line is .263/.323/.340 and he plays very poor defence.  He is 28 years old.  The best you can say about him is that he is a major league veteran who did have a pretty good season in 2011. 

How does Jose Molina do it?

He's - what do they say - extremely quiet behind the plate. He barely moves a muscle, which can't help but make the umpire think that the pitch went where it was supposed to go. The lack of quick and sudden movements also helps the umpire see the pitch better. Bob Boone used to say that the thing about framing pitches was not to fool the umpire, but helping the umpire see the pitch.

He can also fake a number of positions, which is more significant to NL teams than to us, but can still be useful if your three-man bench causes you to lose the DH.

He barely moves a muscle

Which burns him sometimes, as balls go bouncing past him to the backstop....

That was a nice 4th inning, making Hellickson work so hard that he probably won't make it out of the 5th inning.  The stuff of which comebacks are made.

Buerhle's giving a whole new meaning to the definition of "innings eater"

Buck Martinez just mentioned that "Mark de Rosa is 4th on the team in RBIs."

Hands up, everyone who saw that coming. And you who saw that coming - how did you resist the urge to jump off a tall building?

DeRosa hits another HR. Hold on, didn't we release him when we called up Negrych?

4th in RBI in just 39 ABs.

Last night, Delabar throw an inning in a 10-2 game having last thrown on Thursday.  Tonight, in a 7-5 game in the seventh, Esmil Rogers comes on.  Is there some reason for this usage that I can't think of?

Apparently the team is cautious about pitching Delabar in back to back games because he's had very complicated elbow surgery. I mean there's a reason you can get a pretty good arm like Delabar for a guy like Thames.

Weird... first was able to check the game when it was 7-2, then the Jays started a comeback and now I'm feeling ... gasp ... hope!

I see Delabar has gone back to back in only 1 of his ten games this year, you have to wonder why pitch him yesterday though in a blow out? Maybe that reconstructed elbow has been chirping? It's hard to second guess with only 10% of the relevant data.

Yunel gave the Jays an extra three outs in the eighth. Nice to scrape out another run, but they really could have used a breakthrough hit from Jose or Edwin.

Tough to win games when you enter the ninth trailing. Let's see if the Jays can do it. They desperately need this win.

On the basis of those two at-bats in crucial situations, Rasmus should be banished to high A.

Nice call, Mike Green!

Don't look now, but Kawasaki has a .353 OBP (and is 4/5 in steal attempts). Pretty good for an emergency callup.

Here are some injury updates from Dunedin:

I saw Luis Perez throw 25 pitches to minor leaguers today. I was told he is a couple of weeks away from pitching in an extended game.

The Jays are taking it slow with Kyle Drabek given it was his second TJ.

Drew Hutchison is coming along well and is just a few weeks behind Perez. Hutchison and Drabek are on a similar schedule.

Dustin McGowan pitched an inning in an exhibition game today. He threw 22 pitches to 7 hitters, two singles, one run, five outs (extended rules). He threw fastballs at 91-94 and a lot of sliders. He looked good but his progress depends on how he feels.

I was told that he did not have another injury post spring training. I was told he wasn't fully recovered from post season shoulder surgery in March and needed more time.

Thanks Gerry. Great news on the injury front, although it's a bit worrisome we've heard nothing on Osuna.

And this one is for Mike Green. Blanco has convinced me - call up Thole and dump Blanco. I still don't believe there are any replacement level catchers out there waiting for a call, but I'm sure there are more than a few as good as or better than sub-sub-replacement level Blanco.

"although it's a bit worrisome we've heard nothing on Osuna."

And a lot more worrisome after reading your post on the other thread.

Jerry Howarth has been beating the Anthony Gose drum for a couple weeks now and I tend to agree with him. This team is miles better defensively with Bautista at third, Lawrie at second with two centerfielders in Gose and Rasmus in the outfield. Offensively, AG has a .352 on base in 107 at bats, which is better than anyone on the big club right now. I think it's officially time to free Anthony Gose.

Nice comeback tonight.  I feel a winning streak coming....

While the team might be better defensively with Bautista at 3B, Lawrie at 2B and Gose in the outfield one wonders how it would affect Bautista and Lawrie health wise.  2B is more dangerous than 3B, and 3B more so than RF.  While I was in favour of it as a short to mid-term solution awhile ago, Bautista made me nervous when he seemed to need extra days off while doing it.  In a computer league you'd do it in a second, in real life though... the injury risks vs the benefits just doesn't seem to work out well.

Ideally the Jays get someone going at 2B - be it Izturis, Bonifacio, or DeRosa (now up to 225/313/550 and #2 on the Jays in OPS behind Reyes) - and find another way to open an OF slot.  Do you move Cabrera (if someone would take him)?  What about Rasmus, would someone take him and give the Jays something useful back?

"...Ballgame."

That was a reasonable assumption by any Bauxite with the Jays down 7-0 in the third inning. But how about those fighting Jays? Biggest comeback by the Jays since 2007, and the biggest-ever comeback by any team at Tropicana. Is there a chance that those who said "Season" in April could also be wrong? Probably not, but worth hoping for. If the Jays can somehow get back within a few games of a wild-card position by the time Reyes returns to the lineup in June, it might not be impossible.

Is there a way for the Jays to make better use of DeRosa, who now has an OPS of .863 (small sample size)? Should he be getting more time at 2B? Is his defence passable?

"...Do you move Cabrera (if someone would take him)?"

He has shown signs of life in the past couple games. I think the Jays will keep running him out there for quite a while. He has very little trade value at the moment, but he could rebuild his value and help the Jays significantly if he keeps hitting like the past two days.

Rasmus and Cabrera are both free agents after next season and there's going to be a couple of holes in the outfield with Gose (and maybe Pillar) the only real in-house replacement options. I don't think they're going anywhere though Rasmus could be dealt with Gose stepping in at CF. Gose has cooled considerably though and he may not be ready. As someone else suggested, the ideal situation might be to move EE to DH and Bautista to 1B, then go with an OF of Gose, Rasmus and Cabrera.

"...Ballgame."

Eating crow, quite happily.

Also: Cabrera isn't a free agent until after 2014. He signed a 2/$16M contract in the off-season.

Sorry, timpinder, I see you meant free agent after the 2014 season.

Very true China Fan.  Cabrera right now would have no trade value I suspect, but AA has pulled off bizarre deals (Wells) before.  Odds are Gose will be in AAA until mid-season unless an injury occurs and by then who knows what will be going on. 

As to DeRosa's defense at 2B... FanGraphs shows he has played 9 innings there so far (not sure if it includes last night) making outs on the 3 balls in his zone and 1 out on a play outside the zone.  Lifetime though he is a -2.5 UZR/150 over 2300 innings, the vast majority pre-2009.  From 2009 on he has seen 14 balls in his zone and made outs on 13 of them while making plays on 3 balls out of zone over 67 2/3 innings.  The outfield is where he has spent most of his time the past few years with significant time at third as well.  Depending how he looks in practice I'd consider starting him and having someone else come in late for defensive purposes (Izturis most likely). 

Bonifacio, right now, is a pinch runner only (and did a wonderful job last night in that role).  At 2B for the Jays in 114 2/3 innings he has seen 31 balls in zone and made outs on 23 of them while reaching 3 balls out of zone resulting in a -22.7 UZR/150, lifetime is -10.2.  Izturis has 171 2/3 innings so far at 2B making outs on 42 of 58 balls and reaching 8 out of zone.  His UZR/150 is -18.3 but lifetime is 5.1 so odds are this is more a sample size issue (maybe a lot at the edges).

Right now I'd be giving DeRosa more time until Izturis gets a bit hotter (286/306/314 his past 10 games).  So a mix and match with the two of them with Izturis getting the late innings assuming his defensive numbers for 2013 are a sample size issue not a skill issue.  Odds are DeRosa will drop back to his past 3 years average of a 62 OPS+ but for now even that is an improvement over Izturis (43) and Bonifacio (30).

Btw, for oddities, just noticed how crazy extreme JPA's BB-SO ratio is: 2-42, or 9 walks and 193 K's over 550 PA.  Yikes.  His 111 OPS+ is nice but it is pure slugging.  Meanwhile Lind is at 16-9 BB-SO ratio or 119-67 over 550 PA with a 392 OBP and 298 Slg.  Very, very weird indeed.  Mix the two together and you'd have a heck of a player or a horrid one (392/542 OBP/Slg or 267/298 OBP/Slg). 

This team is miles better defensively with Bautista at third, Lawrie at second

That's a fantasy baseball strategy - and it would probably work just fine there - but it's not one for the real world. I've never ever seen Lawrie play second base, so I sure wouldn't want to guarantee that would be an improvement. I am pretty sure Lawrie would be even more likely to get injured playing second than he is now - that's just the nature of second base.

It would definitely be a downgrade replacing Lawrie at 3b with a guy who hasn't played third regularly since 2008, immediately hurt himself the last time they tried him at third, and would rather play the outfield anyway.

"Is there a way for the Jays to make better use of DeRosa, who now has an OPS of .863 (small sample size)? Should he be getting more time at 2B? Is his defence passable?"

Not only a small sample size but until two games ago, his OPS was .553.  This team should not be relying on the likes of deRosa and Kawasaki for its wins.

Kawasaki is replacing an injured Reyes, and doing exactly what you would hope for in that role (working counts, fielding and running well).  DeRosa seems to have regained his pop, and is a decent right-handed bat off the bench (although more suited to the roster composition of the 70s and 80s- 5 or 6 man pens). He is nothing more than an emergency/occasional player in the infield, as he has very little range now. 

You do not need Henry Blanco on this club.  You certainly don't need both Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio.  You do need a second baseman who can split the job (in some fashion) with Izturis.  A little note on how unlucky Izturis has been.  He has hit 20 line drives.  In his career, he has hit .707 when hitting line drives (which is typical).  This year he has 10 hits.  Give him those missing 4 hits and he'd be hitting .250/.290/.330 and no one would be batting much of an eyelash.  He's been unlucky on ground balls he has hit this season as well.

Speaking of luck, DeRosa's home run last night scraping the back of the wall behind the 322 sign in the right-field corner at the Trop got me to thinking.  That ball only goes out in 1 other park that I can think of- Fenway.  As both these parks are in the AL East, I wondered about teaching the Waner strategy of trying to shoot a ball the opposite way down the line to somewhat disciplined hitters with medium range power.  I can see someone like Melky doing this. 

Maicer has basically been exactly what we could've reasonably expected sans some luck. In fun with small samples, he's hitting .321/.345/.357 over his last 8 games, and with enough playing time he'll edge closer to that .270/.330 career line.

Macier had two high leverage at bats last night and battled well but came away with nothing. He hit a line-out to right-centre (where they were playing him) in the first one and a hot shot to first base in the next one. He looks like he's doing okay now.

And when McGee came in throwing 96-98, Izturis did not seem to be overmatched at all.  I think he'll be fine playing 4-5 games a week, but he's a small guy and you should have somebody behind him who can capably play the position. 

For now I'd say Izturis for 4-5 games, DeRosa the other 2-3 (ideally when a fly ball pitcher is going, such as Happ and Morrow) until a better option appears.  Bonifacio is not that better option it seems, and the Jays need to make up their minds on what to do with him long term - can they live with a  guy who is mainly a pinch runner on the bench?  Strange how all the talking heads seemed to think Bonifacio was a darling of the team and would be likely to get more and more playing time.  I bought it too.  Sigh.

Like I said, I don't agree that DeRosa can capably play second base at this stage of his career.  Hence, Negrych.

Mike, what's your response to Gerry's point on the other thread, where he notes that Anthopoulos refers to Negrych having "average" defence, which could be a polite way of saying "below average"? Anthopoulos did appear to be "damning him with faint praise", to borrow a cliche.

I'm personally skeptical that a hot month at the age of 28 is enough to prove Negrych's ability to handle major-league pitching. And if the defence is a question mark, he's probably not an upgrade on what the Jays have.

If the standard for second base defence is Bonifacio/DeRosa, I am confident that Negrych would be better.  I must admit that I don't place a huge amount of weight on a discounted assessment of Negrych's defence from AA.  His original line that "Negrych is not on our radar" struck me as unimpressive.  You've got an obvious problem and you've got an obvious potential solution.  If he had something like "Negrych is off to a very hot start, but we'd like to see where he is in a little while", that would be a lot better. 

Don't get me wrong.  He is not likely to hit .320.  What he is likely to do is hit significantly better than Kawasaki and play passable defence, which is more than you can say for Bonifacio/DeRosa.  I don't mind at all if Izturis gets most of the at-bats; I just don't think you can expect him to play 140-150 games.

Anthopoulos actually said that Negrych wasn't on their radar in the past, but now he is on their radar. Which makes sense. He's caught their attention. I just think they're a little skeptical for now -- until he can continue the hot hitting for more than a month -- and they probably have questions about his defence.

One thing I've learned over the years is that players defence is always far better before I actually see them play.

Well, I don't want to get into a debate about what Anthopoulos said when.  The major point is that Negrych can easily do better than DeRosa or Bonifacio for the particular role.  I don't think that it is a close call.  There had been hope that Bonifacio could regain his 2011 form, but surely in light of what has happened in 2012 and what is plain to see in 2013, you'd need some actual evidence of it rather than hope. 

I didn't have a chance to say this, this morning, when it would have been more timely, but Buehrle's start, save for one wretched, horrible, scorpions are crawling in my brain, inning, was pretty solid. I'm not a member of a Major League front office but I would think that when a pitcher gets out of whack for a brief period, it is the pitching coach's responsibility to notice something and to say something to get the guy back in the groove. Now Buehrle is probably old enough and experienced enough to do that for himself but I would think that this is one thing one can expect of a pitching coach. I don't mean to dump on the current pitching coach but I do think that in-game correction is part of the job description.

I had pretty much given up on this team, and then they go and do that. They still need to win about 7 in a row, starting approximately now, to have any hope of contending, but there's still a faint pulse.

Buehrle's start, save for one wretched, horrible, scorpions are crawling in my brain, inning, was pretty solid

Before we give up on Buehrle, I want to see him pitch (a) outdoors and (b) in decent weather. All but one of his starts have been either indoors or in the cold. These might not be the optimal environments for him.

I just think they're a little skeptical for now -- until [Negrych] can continue the hot hitting for more than a month -- and they probably have questions about his defence.

This might be the Domingo Cedeno Effect. Anybody can get hot for a few weeks. I'm willing to wait and see.

This team is miles better defensively with Bautista at third, Lawrie at second

Lawrie is the best defensive third baseman I have ever seen. I can't see how moving him off third upgrades the team defense, even given that Gose can outrun the very wind itself.

Lawrie is the best defensive third baseman I have ever seen. I can't see how moving him off third upgrades the team defense, even given that Gose can outrun the very wind itself.

Certainly DRS ( which I prefer to a degree over UZR ) agrees with you. He's saved 36 runs since joining the team in 2011, despite playing quite a few less innings then his cohorts. Machado of Baltimore is pretty good as well.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=400&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

I am not ready to slaughter this fattened pig just yet... my experience of big trades has been that they seem to work better in the second year

This totally agrees with my (biased/selective) memory. Many, MANY times, I feel, the new players take a while to hit their stride, they push too hard to impress right away, etc.. Seems to happen ESPECIALLY in Toronto.. Whereas the Yankees can seemingly pick a guy off the scrap heap today, and tomorrow, he's outhitting our "good" players.. :-)

Whereas the Yankees can seemingly pick a guy off the scrap heap today, and tomorrow, he's outhitting our "good" players.. :-)

A highly thought of veteran hitting coach doesn't hurt either. I'm guessing, but the Yankees, before they sign hitters might go to Kevin Long and ask "Is this guy fixable?". I know the Rays do that with Hickey and pitchers.