Right now I can't help but recall the scout who, after the Dickey trade, said something like, "I don't understand why they didn't just keep the prospects and sign Ryan Dempster."

I am all in favour of days off, but Lawrie doesn't really need one now least of all against a LHP.  He is just getting going.

In the sports entertainment alternative department, I decided to watch a period of hockey for the first time in maybe 5 years.  Last night's third period of the Bruins-Leafs game.  It was generally exciting and skillful.  The Leafs were skating well, passes were on the stick and the athleticism level was high.  Best hockey I have seen in decades, with the Leafs reminding me of the Canadiens.  Who would have thought it?

Lind vs RHP yesterday and Lawrie vs LHP today. Gibbons needs to pick his spots better. He has been making a lot of mistakes.

In the sports entertainment alternative department, I decided to watch a period of hockey for the first time in maybe 5 years.

The Leafs are the best show in town? The Leafs? This can not be. This is in violation of all the laws known to science. Surely I have stumbled into some mirror universe, where all things are reversed.... Let me check a Star Trek re-run, see whether or not Spock has that little goatee.

Gibbons says Lawrie is a little banged up, available to pinch hit.

"...If Brandon Morrow's passed his 'dead arm' period...."

When you are spreading injury rumors which are quite possibly false, could you please provide a source.

Jays score on a deep sac fly to second. Davis scores. Man, Joey Bats got a hold of that one. Still not as impressive as Blanco's double yesterday. Can't believe he's not in the lineup.

My kingdom for an "ignore user" button.

"....you might miss Gibbons et al`s many mentions of Morrow`s 'dead arm'...."

Google tells me that Gibbons has never once used the phrase "dead arm" in relation to Morrow. Do you honestly believe that he's been regularly referring to Morrow's "dead arm" and nobody has once reported it?

Ha. The Jays website states that Rajai Davis "hustled home" on a sac fly rather than just simply scoring a run. Good to know the team is still hustling despite their struggles. Maybe the next update will have Bonifacio showing a lot of heart while he misplays an easily-playable fly ball.

I suppose I shouldn't be so bitter given that the Jays have already scored as many runs in this game as their previous four combined. Go Jays!

Must say, that's the best three innings of BJ baseball I've seen all year. Start of something? One can hope.

and/or, if you never go to any other web site,...

Could you please provide a link to one of these other web sites that mentions that Morrow has a dead arm (or provide a link to a podcast or whatever the case may be), as China Fan asked?

2) If you are calling a pitcher`s "dead arm" period an injury, you`d better site the source. You are the only person I know that considers it an injury.

As reported in the Wall Street Journal, MLB teams have placed players on the DL 22 times since 2006 with arm or shoulder fatigue (aka a "dead arm"). Last year, the Yankees placed Phil Hughes on the DL with a "dead arm". It appears MLB teams consider a "dead arm" to be an injury (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576315273059353648.html)

Not exactly a catching clinic today.

Three solid hits by Cabrera today. Would be nice if he's finally getting untracked. Could make a big difference to the Jays under-achieving lineup.

Hechavarria having a day against Doc. 7 RBI.

I was going to post this morning that the Jays desperately need to blow out an opponent soon to get things going as blowouts are traditionally a sign of a good team. 

Morrow going 8 was a woohoo, as was the 2 runs.  His 5 walks is a bit concerning but this ump seems to have a small strike zone (seeing strikes called balls on gameday).  Cabrera and Izturis getting 3 hits each is a very good sign, as both seemed to forget which end of the bat to use at times this season.  Also good to finally see Bonifacio get his first 2 stolen bases of the year - for a guy whose #1 asset is speed it is odd it took this long, but I did check awhile ago and he didn't have many opportunities to steal earlier (runners on 2B or just had one or two pitches to steal on before innings ended or something else happened to make a stolen base impossible).  Also nice to see the Jays come back with 4 runs after Seattle scored their 2.

Phew.  Nice to finally see the Jays have a good day.

There has been a lot of factors in the slow starts for our hitters. Off the top of my head opinion only, but to various degrees they have been our rookie hitting coach and the hitters taking time to mesh with him, injuries, facing a lot of pitchers who were "on" that day, and hitters "pressing" and swinging at pitches they would normally lay off and the fact AA has built this team with a lot of hackers.

I'm sure there are other reasons, but there is also fact and that is almost the entire team has been unlucky, if you can ever call luck fact. I read a Community Research FG article recently on the 10 lowest BABIP's since 1945. They ranged from Roger Maris'.209 in 1961 to Aaron Hill's abysmal .196 3 years ago.

Going into today's game 3 Jays had BABIP's worse than the worst in 67 years. Jose at .190, Izturis at .185 and DeRosa at .154 (and as luck would have it, those 3 go a combined 7 for 11 today). Edwin, who's BABIP was tied with Maris' .209 stays in that Top 10 group of misery with his 0-fer despite some hard hit balls.

Pitchers this year have a .225 BABIP. Lawrie is at .222. AL league average is .298 - only 4 Jays were better than that - JPA at .300, Rajai .347, Colby .400 and Reyes .424. As a team the Jays .261 is the worst in MLB.

The Jays website states that Rajai Davis "hustled home" on a sac fly rather than just simply scoring a run.

Did you see the play? It was a shallow fly ball that most players wouldn't have tried to score on. The run was more about Rajai's speed/hustle than the fly ball.

Actually, it was even less than a shallow fly ball, it was a popup to the 2nd baseman. When Rajai saw Ackley stumble backwards after the catch, he took off. However Rajai simply ran really, really fast - he did not meet all criteria for hustle, which involves actually liking a player.

Fair enough, Ryan. I'm at work and couldn't watch the game. Admittedly, that was bitter cynicism disguised as an attempt at humor, since the team no longer has "hustle and heart" on the website banner.

He didn't even have to slide!

Instead of spending time and effort asking Richard S S to back up his comments, it's better to just ignore and move onto the next commentor.

I was lucky enough to go to the game today and watch the Toronto Bluejays play actual baseball. It was a treat to watch, and it's hard to not get excited when you see guys like Melky, Jose, and Edwin with such good AB's. I'm not even looking at the schedule to see who they play this week, I'm just going to enjoy this one.

That being said (haha), hopefully this is a point where the Jays turn around and start playing some good baseball, even if it doesn't mean a playoff run but some entertaining baseball and some hope going into 2014 with a healthy Reyes.

Okay, that was a lot more fun. (Though I have to admit that I turned my radio off when the Mariners loaded the bases. I just assumed that there was going to be a grand slam, followed by a few more runs, ending up in a 12-3 loss or something. When I reconnected, I was surprised to learn that the score was 7-2 for the good guys.)

I think the Jays owe this win to two factors: Mark DeRosa and the weather. DeRosa arguably won the game all by himself: he made a great play on a hard-hit ball during Morrow's bad inning, and he hit the home run that put the game away. He also had two doubles. Admittedly, it's only one game, but DeRosa has already done more to help the Jays than Omar Vizquel did all last year.

The weather was a factor because the roof was open. In the early innings, Morrow gave up a couple of fly balls to the warning track. In April, when the Dome serves as a baseball launcher, those balls would have been out.

I hate to say it, but the next few days will pretty much decide whether the 2013 Jays have even a slim chance of contending. They play the Formerly Devilish Rays and the Red Sox. If they win a whole bunch of these games, they'll be at least in the picture. If they do what they have been doing before today, it will all be over.

(And a moment of sympathy for Roy Halladay, please - Father Time appears to have gotten him. Sad.)

It's a positive step, but consider that it was a home game against the Seattle Mariners and Joe Saunders (12.51 ERA on the road this year).

Not quite the same as going on the road and facing Hellickson, Hernandez (Roberto), Moore, Price, Lester, Buchholz, and whoever follows Buchholz. The road trip is going to be a gruelling test. Four wins would be an impressive accomplishment. Three wins would be treading water. Zero to two would be another body blow to the team's chances in 2013.

Gotta pitch, play fundamentally sound baseball, grind out ABs, be opportunistic.

I think I can explain the dead arm "thing". Morrow threw hard in his first start then his velocity was off in the next two. Jack Morris speculated that Morrow might have thrown too hard in his first start and was paying the price in starts two and three through a dead arm. I don't believe the Jays ever said anything of that kind, it was Morris speculation but that was for starts two and three. It was a dead issue in game 17, Morrow's 4th start.

The Leafs are the best show in town? The Leafs? This can not be. This is in violation of all the laws known to science. Surely I have stumbled into some mirror universe, where all things are reversed.... Let me check a Star Trek re-run, see whether or not Spock has that little goatee.

It was just 46 years ago that we got our first TV set, just in time to thrill to the Leafs 4th Stanley Cup in 6 years.  Jimi Hendrix released "Are You Experienced" that year, and then Yaz led the Red Sox to the World Series.  The best posthumous Hendrix record was released this year; it is my theory that the mirror universe is simply a rear-view mirror universe.  James Reimer looks nothing like Terry Sawchuk, but the brown acid can fool you.  Meanwhile, has anyone see Daniel Nava and Carl Yasztremski in the same place at the same time?  I didn't think so. 

The Leafs have been playing very entertaining hockey all season.  They have some genuinely highly skilled players in Lupul, Kessel and Kadri, some good 2nd tier players in Van Reimsdyk, Phaneuf, Bozak and Grabovski, they are finally getting some good goaltending, and Randy Carlyle has made an amazing turnaround in their ability to kill penalties and hold leads.  They are even have the depth now where decent NHL players like J.M. Liles, and Clarke MacArthur have been healthy scratches, as they were on Friday.  That was an exciting game on Friday, and I'm expecting more of the same the rest of the series, although the Bruins have been a very difficult matchup for them for many years now.

The Jays, on the other hand, have been mostly unwatchable this season.  Hopefully today was an indication the offense is coming around.  Romero's start on Friday looked promising, as well, at least until the 4th inning, but it sounded like he was aware of what happened that inning, and can avoid a repeat.  Looking forward to seeing my Giants at Rogers Centre in a couple of weeks.

With 36 games played, the defense is better, the bullpen is better, Starting Pitching is an issue (some are pitching better), offense may or may not have turned the corner. Another 4 games gets to 40 - too soon to panic. Another 14 games gets to 50 - still too soon. Perhaps Atlanta was right, 24 games gets to "60". As long as Toronto is no worse than 4 games under .500 there is a reason to get better and player acquisition is easier in June. If however the margin is worse, it's likely A.A. might see hope. This doesn't get better, hope for a protected draft pick, because signing free agents is A.A.'s best chance to get better.

It would be interesting to know what the Padres were demanding from the Jays for Latos (apparently the Jays were the runner-up in the trade talks). Last year Latos earned $550,000. He is currently in the first year of a 2/$11.5M contract.

In an alternative universe, the Jays would have traded a package (probably something like d'Arnaud, Syndergaard and Marisnick) for Latos and signed Darvish at the going rate (6/$111.7M) -- both players I repeatedly advocated going hard after, incidentally.

The rotation would currently be fronted by:

Darvish (age 26): 5-1, 2.56, 45.2 IP, 15 BB, 72 K, 176 ERA+
Latos (age 25): 3-0, 2.23, 44.1 IP, 11 BB, 43 K, 185 ERA+

Funny how fate works out. The Jays ended up trading the prospects anyway and are spending even more money ($29.75M this year alone, with salaries jumping significantly next year) on Dickey, Johnson and Buehrle.

In an alternative universe, the Jays would have traded a package (probably something like d'Arnaud, Syndergaard and Marisnick) for Latos and signed Darvish at the going rate (6/$111.7M) -- both players I repeatedly advocated going hard after, incidentally.

The problem off-course with alternative universe theories is that you operate with only partial information and the benefit of hind sight. My recollection of that winter was Roger's placing " payroll parameters " on the team. I just don't think Darvish was ever in play for this team because of financial constraints. I'd like to know the real story behind that winter and what changed this past off season.

I mean if you want to play that game, imagine if they had Aaron Hill,Troy Tulowowski ( instead of Romero ), David Wright ( who was apparently offered in a trade for Jose Cruz ), or perhaps Alex Rios or Tim Lincecum. To be fair you'd have to rid yourself of Bautista , Encarcion and perhaps Morrow all guys who worked out here as opposed to elsewhere.

Sadly the real world doesn't work that way.......
 

Or Edwin Jackson, last year's fav. He's 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA.

The old Rios for Lincecum or Cain deal... boy what a missed opportunity that was for JPR.  Back then the front office worked in the exact opposite way of today - everything was leaked like the Titanic.  No secrets, everyone knew what trades were likely to happen well before anything occurred.  The story was the SanFran GM was debating it for quite awhile, as he felt he needed an outfielder and Lincecum was still viewed as a prospect coming off his first season with a 4.00 ERA and a fear of injury.  Rios was coming off his second All-Star year, in the midst of his 3 year peak here (296/347/489 118 OPS+ from 2006-2008).

Links for it - http://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071205121357AAWncoQ http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Lincecum-for-Rios-Not-yet-3234812.php http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/rios-for-cain-o.html

For depression a bit of a summary - people saying they would miss Rios, no need for Lincecum or Cain, the Giants might do it if the Jays tossed in Robinzon Diaz, Curtis Thigpen, or Brett Cecil but JPR wouldn't.  Giants looking at Brandon Inge to cover 3B instead of added Glaus to the deal.

For Batters Box...
Alex Obal might not want to revisit his comments in his article: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20071228145220214
Lots of comments: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20071205082349303
Lots more out there if you want to hunt - we had daily threads during that winter meeting as there was lots going on. 

What if the Jays got Cain or Lincecum for Rios and any of those 3?  In 2008 the Jays were 86-76, 9 games behind Boston for a playoff slot while the Rays took the division for the first time with 97 wins.  That was the peak for the JPR era, with Rios having a decent year (113 OPS+, 5.9 WAR, his best total) Diaz going 0-4, Thigpen 64 OPS+ in 21 PA, and Cecil in the minors all year.  Meanwhile Cain had a 117 ERA+ (4.6 bWAR), and Lincecum a 168 ERA+ 7.9 bWAR.  So Rios vs Lincecum would've added 2 wins, vs Cain would've cost 1.3 wins.  The other guys never did much outside of Cecil who had a solid 2010 (15 wins, 99 ERA+, 2.1 WAR) and is doing well this year.  The rotation was Halladay/Burnett/McGowan/Marcum/Litsch so either guy would've been replacing Litsch to start (118 ERA+ both in 2007 and 2008) most likely.   McGowan went down for good on July 8th (just 5 games in 2011 since then) thus Litsch would've come back up and replaced David Purcey for the next 12 starts (-0.1 bWAR) or Lincecum would've been called up for that if the Jays sent him down (which obviously would've been a dumb move but it was the JPR era).    Actually, the change would've been late June when Marcum went down for a month, then Purcey would've had a few starts before Marcum came back most likely.

None the less... in the end the Jays might have climbed to 90 wins but odds are the wouldn't have reached 95.  In 2009 the Jays were worse, 75 wins and 20 games back of a playoff slot, and 2010 85 wins and 10 games out (Lincecum only 3.7 WAR that year, Cain 4.5 but they'd have replaced a combo of Rzep, Litsch, and Eveland who combined for -0.6 WAR) thus pushing that team to around 90 wins again and still well back of a playoff slot (95 needed). 2011 the Jays were 10 out again, with JoJoReyes and Kyle Drabek being the likely cuts (-1.1 WAR combined) vs the Cain/Lincecum WARs of 3.7/4.2 resulting in 5-6 more wins and again, 90+ but short of what was needed. 

So if the trade we dreamed of once Rios fell apart in 2009 would've resulted in the Jays being closer (90 wins roughly a couple of time) but no playoffs still.  Sad isn't it?

The Latos non-deal is interesting, in that San Diego's GM apparently said Toronto put together the second-most competitive package for him. The fact that Toronto was chasing Latos so hard indicates that its scouts liked him a lot.

I would be interested to know why the Jays ultimately decided not to pursue Darvish. Was it AAV, contract length, uncertainty about his ability to transition to North American baseball, mixed scouting reports? Some combination of the above, perhaps?

It's interesting because the Jays were clearly waiting for the right moment to make a big splash. They could have done it with Latos and Darvish (they clearly preferred high-ceiling, controllable players), but they waited a bit and went instead with Reyes/JJ/Buehrle/Dickey. Either approach would have involved big money. On the one hand, the Jays ultimately netted Reyes and a third starting pitcher (on a one-year deal). On the other, the players acquired are significantly older than Latos and Darvish and no doubt cost some additional prospects.

It's still too early to tell which approach would have made more sense. And yes, all this is with the benefit of hindsight (although many Bauxites weighed in on the Latos and Darvish debates). When he was traded, Latos had relatively little major-league experience and had had some minor injury issues. Darvish, of course, had no major-league experience. Remember the C.J. Wilson versus Darvish debate?

Wildrose touched on this, but the problem with these alternate universe theories is that we expect the same outcome. How often when players move from team to team do they stay the same? Different coaching, training staffs, different theories, different advice leads to different outcomes.

We may forget Darvish had severe command/control issues. When he arrived here for a game mid-August he had an ERA of about 4.5 and was walking 5 per 9. Only Romero and Volquez ended the season at 5 per 9. Something seemed to click in that start and he's been dominant since. Would Walton have been able to get the same result? Would he have stayed healthy here? It's not that we seem to be building any track record of success with starting pitchers the past couple of seasons.

I'm not saying AA shouldn't have bid higher. I am saying different destinations lead to different outcomes and it's mere fantasy to think otherwise.

Yes, all this is speculative. It's just a thought experiment, not a strident "AA should have done this, not that" post.

But I would argue that it's not a wildly implausible scenario. As I've mentioned, the Jays appear to have been in on Latos, and many observers thought the Jays were going to win the Darvish bidding. Moreover, it turns out that the Rogers and the Jays could have afforded both players if they planned on going for it in 2013-15. So they had a real choice. It's not like saying that Tampa could have competed for the WS had they splurged on Fielder last year.

"Or Edwin Jackson, last year's fav. He's 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA."

Oh please. First of all, last year's favourite was Darvish, not Jackson. Yes, some people (myself included) liked Jackson and thought he would be worth what he signed for (he was), but to suggest he was last year's favourite in a mocking manner is just ridiculous, especially coming from the person who made it his personal mission to mitigate Yu Darvish's value in everybody's mind. I remember you calling out Darvish in the middle of last season too because he got off to a fast start and then tailed off; after you pointed that out he went into shutdown mode again and has been there ever since.

As for Jackson himself, the W-L and ERA are indeed brutal, but it's not wrong to suggest he's been pitching the best he's ever pitched and just not seeing results. His K rate, GB%, and HR/FB are all at career bests. His velocity continues to trend down, however, so it remains to be seen if he can make the necessary adjustments to continue being a consistent, middle of the rotation starter. If the Jays had given EJax the type of deal people around here were suggesting it's very likely they wouldn't owe Mark Buehrle 37m for the next 2 seasons and would be much better off for it.

Agreed about EJax, 92-93, but would the Marlins have really given up Reyes (and Bonifacio) if the Jays did not take the PITBULL MEGABLOAT (otherwise known as Buerhle's contract) in the off-season? Remember, the initial inquiry from AA was about Johnson alone, at least, according to AA himself.

Yes, some people (myself included) liked....

It's certainly true that you advocated the signing of Darvish. That of course is no surprise, as you've advocated the signing of every free agent since Ricciardi was fired, or better put, criticized Rogers for not making every bad free agent signing possible in that period. Indeed if Rogers had made every bad signing over the last few years that you've criticized them for not making, they'd have had nothing to sign Darvish with in any event. So it's a bit rich hearing the repetitive "I told you so" routine from the blind squirrel that finally found an acorn.

Oh, you guys. Stop squabbling amongst yourselves. I once asserted that the next NL Cy Young winner would be Oliver Perez. Except for that year when I said it would be Barry Zito. And that other year when I said it would be Brett Myers...

Gaze at my work, ye mortals, and tremble...

Heck, I once referred to Adrian Gonzalez in a discussion about Brett Wallace's hitting potential. Then the world discovered that Wallace (.042/.115/.042 / 65.4% K rate) can't hit inside pitches.

Beat that...

"The 2012 Blue Jays- 90 Wins" said the genius.  Undeterred, he continued "The 2013 Blue Jays- 90 wins".  I have seen the enemy and he is I. 

Let's not bicker and argue about who killed who...

jjdynomite, it seems obvious the Jays don't get Reyes without absorbing Buehrle. Whether or not they are better off having done so remains to be seen.

Your response is quite amusing, CDBC, considering that I was one of the lone voices agreeing with you and expressing doubt about Darvish and the posting fee required.

So no, it's certainly NOT true that I advocated signing Darvish, and if you had bothered to read my post you may have noticed I was talking about EJax.

"Except for that year when I said it would be Barry Zito."

Must have been the offseason I was positively convinced the Jays would be better off giving Zito 18m than 20m to Lilly & Meche.

I'm not saying AA shouldn't have bid higher. I am saying different destinations lead to different outcomes and it's mere fantasy to think otherwise.

Agreed. For example, just announced: Gavin Floyd is having season-ending TJ surgery. Back when there was some minor talk about possibly acquiring GF, I'm sure no one thought "well, we can trade for GF, get 5 starts with an ERA+ of 85 out of him, and then he gets TJ and is out the rest of the year".. :-)

"....If the Jays had given EJax the type of deal people around here were suggesting it's very likely they wouldn't owe Mark Buehrle 37m for the next 2 seasons and would be much better off for it...."

Can you explain this more precisely and in some detail, please? I'm having trouble following your logic.

If the Jays had been in on FAs like EJax/Darvish last offseason the trade with the Marlins (and probably the Mets) never happens.

Again, I don't really understand. I thought you just said that you didn't advocate the Darvish signing?

And the acquisition of Jackson, by himself, wouldn't have killed the Marlins deal. Anthopoulos wanted to acquire 3 new starting pitchers, and he did that, including 2 from the Marlins. I don't recall any Bauxites saying that one pitcher would be sufficient to solve the team's problems. So the Jays would have had to sign Jackson plus two more free agent starters. Even the acquisition of 3 free agents wouldn't necessarily have solved the problem, as we see from the troubles of Johnson and Buehrle today.

I predict that we're going to have many more of these hindsight-type arguments all season. But at the time of the Marlins trade, nobody said Johnson and Buehrle were bums. Many people on Batters Box were quite content to settle for just those 2 starters, without even trying for Dickey. Let's acknowledge that almost everyone thought it was a good move at the time.

Revisiting the story of a franchise over a space of several years is not really ideally suited to the comments section of a blog.  You could write a 15 page paper on it.  Steve Treder has done those kinds of thing at the Hardball Times.

At lunch today, a cohort asked "do you think Brett Lawrie could play shortstop?".  My answer:  I can see it a lot more than second base, probably in a year or two when Reyes would ideally be moved to second base.  Lawrie does have the physical tools for the position, and there isn't quite the risk of injury at shortstop that there is at second base.  Call it the Honus Wagner career path, even if Lawrie doesn't exactly have Wagner's temperament.

 

When the blue Jays recently fell to 10-20, I recalled the start of the 2009 season when they jumped out of the gate 20-10 and led the league.
Maybe they should consider bringing back Scott Richmond who started 4-0 that season; I heard that he's available again after some treachery in the KBO.
I don't think that another change of uniforms is going to accomplish that much, and Rickey appears to need a lot more couch work.

The Black Knight played by your Toronto Blue Jays.

if I recall correctly, and it's been a while, the 'who did what to who' scene involved Lancelot.

I took the Black Knight reference to mean the team still thinks they will be in the postseason.

Correct.