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Shake, shake yourself, you're every move you make, so the story goes.

It's R.A. Dickey (2-3, 4.66) and Phil Hughes (0-2, 5.14) in the series finale at 1:05 p.m. Eastern.
Game Thread — 4/28 @ New York Yankees | 130 comments | Create New Account
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#271125) #

We have the better Starter, provided he is healthy enough to pitch as the better Starter.   We have the better bullpen, provided they don't ever look at the score.   We have the better offense, I truly believe that, in AAA or in AA or in A+.    If they can forget being World Series bound and just remember who they really are, they can with this game going away.   If they can't, just another loss, they do that well.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#271127) #
Interesting starting lineup.  Lawrie leads off, Rasmus bats second, and Lind sixth.  If Thole was in the lineup instead of Blanco (and possibly Negrych in place of Izturis), we'd really be getting somewhere.

Magpie - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#271130) #
Casper Wells designated for assignment by Oakland. Go nuts, everyone.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#271132) #
Is it possible that somewhere in Jim Negreych's career he was unfairly labelled as a career Minor Leaguer?   I ask this because he never, ever, got a sniff of the Majors.    Then, what did A.A. say to Maicer Izturis when he was signed?   What kind of promises did A.A. give?   I would like to see Negrych up here, but can't see that happening without an injury and then I could see A.A. call up Mike McCoy.   The only reason Henry Blanco is on this Team is R.A. Dickey likes him better as a catcher (briefly in 2010) than Josh Thole (mostly in 2011 and 2012).   He's a better hitter, but bringing him up or even them up might cause problems with AAA.
China fan - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#271134) #
Casper Wells has now been dropped by 3 different teams in the past few weeks, despite career numbers that look good (against LHP at least). Rather than blasting Anthopoulos for failing to use him, shouldn't we at least consider the possibility that maybe he has issues (health-related or fitness-related or attitude-related) that have made teams reluctant to keep him? As fans, we're not always aware of the backroom factors, especially since most teams might politely decline to go public with the real issue.
sam - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#271135) #
I sound like Skip Bayless here, but it doesn't look like this team has the "clutch" gene.
Eephus - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#271136) #
Instead of Blue Jays, perhaps the Toronto Sisyphuses would be a more accurate team name.
CeeBee - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#271137) #
Well, any chance of baseball conflicting with the NHL playoffs has gone out of window, for me anyway.
Mike D - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#271138) #
Well, that's the season. In April!
Chuck - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#271139) #
That Bonifacio PH appearance went about as well as one would think. He has historically not hit RHP and Rivera has been tougher on LHB than RHB in his career. I would have thought DeRosa would have been a better choice, but it still likely would not have made much of a difference.
Alex Obal - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#271140) #
Clearly, this is just the prologue to The Legend of Anthony Gose (foreword by Derek Jeter and 2003 Shannon Stewart).
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#271141) #
The 40-game mark comes soon.   A.A. needs to make moves or he will lose more fans.    How much has been lost will show during this coming week when Boston (30-02) and Seattle (03-05) visit.   To be swept by New York's "B" team truly sucks.
electric carrot - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#271142) #
I am putting a paper bag over the paper bag that's already covering my face.
Eephus - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#271143) #
It's fine, it's good. Once Johnson, Morrow and Buehrle find their good command and Melky starts hitting line drives everywhere this team will start rolling. Then Reyes comes back and no one will be able to stop us! Yes, this 9-17 nonsense will all be good for a laugh in September once we've got a nice snug division lead. All this suffering just makes our inevitable victory that much sweeter! Yes! Yes!

(Excuse me, Mr. Eephus, you forgot to take your medication today.)

Four Seamer - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#271144) #
Where's Shea Hillenbrand and his white board when you really need him?
Kasi - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#271145) #
This series was torture with all the jays castoffs killing us. Who would think that Overbay, Nix and Wells would kill us this badly.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#271146) #
That Bonifacio PH appearance went about as well as one would think. He has historically not hit RHP and Rivera has been tougher on LHB than RHB in his career. I would have thought DeRosa would have been a better choice, but it still likely would not have made much of a difference.

Given how notoriously hard that cutter is on left-handed hitters, I too thought a right-handed pinch hitter would be used. I had expected Davis.

This team has no confidence in itself. As soon as Overbay hit the homer they might as well have headed to LGA.
greenfrog - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#271147) #
Hafner said something interesting in the Sportsnet post-game interview. When asked about how the new veteran additions were contributing to the team's success, Hafner commented that some of the hitters have made swing adjustments. Which made me wonder: how much of the success of players like Wells, Hafner and Cervelli is the result of Kevin Long's coaching?

It sure would be nice to see the Blue Jays' hitters make some similar adjustments.

2013 team hitting, AL East:

NYY: 259/329/438
Boston: 270/346/440
Baltimore: 262/327/427
Tampa: 240/310/391
Toronto: 229/293/403
greenfrog - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#271148) #
Also, here are the teams with the worst run differentials in the majors:

1. Miami (-46)
2. Houston (-45)
3. Toronto (-35)

Not exactly the company the Jays should be aspiring to keep.
Ron - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#271149) #
The Jays only have 4 walks in the past 4 games (one of them was an IBB today). Based on last season, you need 93 wins to get a WC spot. The Jays need to finish the season 84-52 to get to 93 wins. We are not even at the end of the first month of the season and the Jays are already 9.5 games back of the division leader and 7 back from the WC.

On the positive side, Cecil has been outstanding so far (small sample source of course). Heading into Spring Training, a large number of Jays fans thought he didn't even belong on the 25 man roster. With Janssen's health issue, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cecil pick up a few saves this season.
Chuck - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#271150) #
I wouldn't be surprised to see Cecil pick up a few saves this season

Gibbons has done a good job restricting Cecil to LOOGY duties:  33 PAs vs LHB and only 23 vs RHB. Good thing too since his OPS split is 423/836.

Yes, sample sizes are very small here, but they don't argue for Cecil in any role other than the one he is currently occupying.
John Northey - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#271151) #
The bandwagon is getting very, very empty already.  I said in March that this was a vital month with the Yankees buried in injuries to key players and now the Jays were just shown who is the playoff team in this division. 

So, what killed them this weekend against the ex-Jays?
Starting Pitching: Dickey: 7 IP, 3 R; Happ 6 IP 3 R; Laffey 2 2/3 IP 2 R; Buehrle 5 1/3 IP 5 R - total 21 IP 13 R or a RA of 5.57 - ugh.  But it did get better (rate wise) every game with Dickey actually pitching well.
Relief Pitching: net: 12 IP 6 R = 4.50 RA with 4 of the 6 runs coming in Laffey's start. Not great, but remove those 5 1/3 innings and it goes down to 2.70 which is more like it.
Offense: net: 13 runs in 4 games or 3.25 R per game. Never more than 4 in a game.  Ick. Against Sabithia (good pitcher), Nova (not so good), Kuroda (good), Hughes (not so good). 
RISP: 0-2, 2-7, 0-9, 2-6 respectively = 4 hits in 24 AB = .167 Avg - you won't win often doing that.
Defense: 0 errors but numerous missed plays.

Pretty much nothing worked well.  Dickey was the only impressive starter, the pen outside of Lincoln was solid, the offense was horrid when 2 of 4 starting pitchers they should've been pounding. 

Basically at this point the team need (and I do mean needs) a winning streak.  Something to pull them out of the Houston/Miami category and back into the Yankee/Boston category.  For Rogers the best thing is that the Leafs are in the playoffs so the Jays are a sideshow in the casual sporting fans minds until the Leafs are knocked out.  Once the Leafs are out then the Jays better be back in eyeshot or we'll be seeing a lot of empty seats at the RC and a lot of pressure put onto both Gibbons and AA.  The hitting coach who we all were hoping would do miracles might have been boosted by Vegas as the OBP of all but Lind and Reyes is in the unacceptable range (below 315).  The great rotation we thought we'd see has the Miami pair in the high 6's for ERA.  Dickey is getting there now (4.50 ERA now and dropping) and Happ has been as good as we could hope for (reasonably). 

Sigh. 

China fan - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#271152) #
"....Which made me wonder: how much of the success of players like Wells, Hafner and Cervelli is the result of Kevin Long's coaching?....."

It might be unfair for Jays fans to blame any of the current troubles on Chad Mottola, but it's perhaps fair at least to say that Mottola's arrival was over-hyped. He may have helped a couple of Jays in the PCL, but where did we get the idea that he was a miracle worker? He seems to have just as many difficulties with the Jays as his predecessor, Dwayne Murphy, had before him.

Yes, the Jays had an above-average offense in the first half of 2012. But that may have contributed to a tendency to over-value and over-rate the hitters. Anthopoulos might be as guilty of that as everyone else. It certainly doesn't appear now that the Jays of 2012 were just a LF and SS away from being a great-hitting team.

Bringing up Thole to replace Blanco would help a little, but the team needs a lot more than that. There are way too many holes in this lineup, and not enough good hitters to carry the weak hitters in other spots in the lineup.

In his scrum with reporters today, Anthopoulos argued that the hitters will revert to their historical norms. I'm not sure if that's true. It's purely an assumption, and it could be faulty. Some of these guys could be on the downward side of their career progression.

Despite the boost in payroll in the offseason, Anthopoulos was still trying to do a lot of things on the cheap -- trying to find bargains for 2B and LF and refusing to eat salary at DH. Rely on too many of those bargains, and the risks become too high. He may have overestimated his lineup and underestimated the risks. If you're going "all-in", why rely on bargain-basement players for half of your lineup? It's coming back to bite him now.
Magpie - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#271153) #
While the offense has certainly been less than expected, the pitching has still been the real problem. Even if it wasn't the problem today. Long story short, the pitching (and defense) has been awful. How awful? Well, only one team in the majors has allowed more runs than the Blue Jays. And that would be your Houston Astros.
Gerry - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#271154) #
The problem with these Blue Jays is that there is not one fix.

The starting pitching has been poor and even if they pick it up, which I expect they will, I don't see ace in Johnson and I don't see above average in Buehrle. Ironically Romero might give the team a lift when he comes back.

The relief pitching looks a bit thin, especially without Santos. They say bullpens swing from good to bad one year to the next. Oliver, Loup and Delabar appear to be a bit "off" from their excellent 2012's.

The defense looks a bit wanting, second base has been a problem, Melky looks to have lost a step and the bench players, Davis, Bonifacio, DeRosa, appear to be a step down on defense.

I assume the hitting will come around some although, as discussed here, its a bit "homer" driven right now. Melky, post drugs, seem to be back to average as opposed to above average. I dont see Bautista or Encarnacion hitting .270 with the way they are swinging now.

None of these issues on its own is fatal. But as a group they are. The Jays need to fix as many of these as they can.
Thomas - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#271155) #
Despite the boost in payroll in the offseason, Anthopoulos was still trying to do a lot of things on the cheap -- trying to find bargains for 2B and LF and refusing to eat salary at DH. Rely on too many of those bargains, and the risks become too high. He may have overestimated his lineup and underestimated the risks. If you're going "all-in", why rely on bargain-basement players for half of your lineup? It's coming back to bite him now.

I don't agree about 2B and LF. Doesn't every team have to go "cheap" and "find bargains" if that's how you're going to categorize Cabrera and Izturis? Do you have specific players you think they should have signed instead?

Yes, Cabrera and Iazturis have underperformed, but both were seen by most analysts as signings with a very good chance of meeting the value of their contract and a reasonable chance of exceeding it. The only alternative in Izturis' league at 2B was Kelly Johnson and he didn't come with the defensive versatility that Izturis did (not that Izturis has looked good anywhere but 2B). And Cabrera was a good value signing in LF if you weren't going to make a $60 million commitment to someone like Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn (which I think were relatively good signings, but not moves AA was able to make).

I guess you can take issue with the way AA allocated his financial resources if you think he should have taken the money that's being paid to Johnson and Buehrle and, instead of making that trade, spent it on Swisher and I don't know who at 2B, but that'd have left the middle starting rotation in the hands of Henderson Alvarez and Ricky Romero, which isn't appealing either. I don't see any indication that Rogers was going to give AA any more money than they did and I can't fault him for those moves.

I have my disagreements with some of his offseason moves, such as the way DH was handled, etc... but I think Cabrera and Izturis are just underperforming. Plain and simple. There was a lot of risk in the Marlins trade and maybe AA didn't evaluate that properly or maybe he did and the dice have just come up snake eyes so far.

katman - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#271156) #
"None of these issues on its own is fatal. But as a group they are. The Jays need to fix as many of these as they can."

Yes. But this season, most of them cannot be fixed. Which is why I'm the Owner of a Lonely Heart.

VBF - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#271157) #
Of course several things have to go wrong to have a month long stretch such as this one, but I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the lack of bench depth.

With all the regular starters in place, there really isn't a bat off the bench that can be replied upon for late game pop. On Friday, Kawasaki and Davis batted representing the tying and go ahead runs - contending teams don't let situations like that occur. Why is Mark DeRosa?

I don't have to go far back in Jays history to remember good bats always available off the bench. From 2006-08, there always seemed to be two of Catalanotto, Johnson, Zaun, Hinske, Hillenbrand, and Stairs ready to step into a game, each with plenty of pop for late game heroics. I thought they learned their lesson with bench depth last year?
Mike D - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#271158) #
I don't really think AA should wear this. He put together a really good team on paper, and that's all you can ask.

I don't think you can definitively conclude that Gibbons and his staff have performed poorly, but if we imagine a scenario where the Jays have a terrible manager and coaching staff, wouldn't they be playing just like this? Unprepared with lapses in concentration and terrible approaches both at the plate and in calling the pitcher's game?

It seems like opponents' advance scouts have been aces, while Toronto's have been AWOL. Opponents are positioned perfectly and relentlessly take advantage of Jays hitters' holes. Meanwhile, it seems like the Jays have been grooving pitches to flawed hitters (Wells, Reynolds, Viciedo, Overbay, Napoli, etc.) It could just be execution on all fronts, but it really does seem like the team doesn't have a clue.

The defensive problems have mostly been execution and/or terrible defensive players getting exploited. I suppose that's where the front office deserves some responsibility.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#271159) #
I don't think the season is over.  I would be a lot happier if Thole was getting at least 1/2 of the catching work, as I feel that Arencibia's game-calling and other defensive weaknesses are playing a significant role on the run prevention side.  I also would be happier with Negrych/Izturis rather than Izturis/Bonifacio as the second base arrangement.  Gose has now walked 11 times and struck out 6 in his last 10 games; if the club decided that the time was now for him, I wouldn't complain a bit about that either. It's a big hole, but there is a lot of talent on the major league club and in Buffalo.

When a team underperforms as much as this club has, you can certainly expect that some of it will be laid at the manager's door.  I don't think that Gibbons has been terrible, but he certainly has made mistakes both in the game-managing and development side.  The club's inability to execute a bunt is something that a manager can be held to account for. 

Magpie - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#271161) #
I don't think that Gibbons has been terrible, but he certainly has made mistakes both in the game-managing and development side.

That doesn't bother me nearly as much as the mood of the team. Everyone is trying. They're giving 110 percent, which is almost always a bad thing in baseball - you end up trying to hit three-run homers with no one on base. This team is tight. They know something awful is going to happen, sooner or later, and they'll lose again.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#271162) #
No question that the team is tight.  I am not sure how much of that is Gibbons' doing, but probably his mistakes aren't helping. 

With all that, they are 6.5 games out.  That, in and of itself, is hardly fatal. 

Mike D - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#271163) #
With all that, they are 6.5 games out. That, in and of itself, is hardly fatal.

Sure, but that assumes that this is a good team capable of making up that ground and that the teams who have been successful are susceptible to allowing that ground to be made up. In other words, it assumes that the first month hasn't really been that revealing of the strengths and weaknesses of AL East clubs. I wish I could believe that with confidence.
Nigel - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#271164) #
The Jays have been out to an equivalently good start (relative to true talent) in 2 of the last 5 years. Anyone who thinks that a 90ish win team can't start like this has a short memory. This isn't a great team by any means but nor is it what we've seen to date.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#271165) #
It has been revealing, but I think that the questions have answers and most of them are internal.  I believe that if you put a good defence behind Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Johnson and Romero (or Happ, if one of the first five are unavailable),  they will do fine.  Anthony Gose and Josh Thole will help with that. The club obviously needs runners on base in front of Bautista and Encarnacion.  Lawrie, Negrych and (later) Reyes will help with that.

It may be that the club needs a new manager, as well, just to shake things off. 


greenfrog - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#271167) #
This weekend I was struck by the contrasting styles of two players: Lawrie and Cano.

Cano moves slowly, gracefully, almost languidly. During plate appearances, he takes his time, stepping out frequently to compose himself and/or disrupt the pitcher's timing. He's patient, although he has a quick bat that can generate significant power (.550 slugging percentage last year). He has an easy, confident athleticism that is a pleasure to watch.

Lawrie, on the other hand, is hyperkinetic, agitated. He's athletic, but his swing has a lot of moving parts (bouncing, circling, jangling) that seem to need to be in sync for him to hit consistently. He loves to hack away early in the count. At times he seems to lose his balance, flying open or lurching in a way that Cano never seems to do.

Obviously there are significant differences between the two players -- in any event, most players would suffer by comparison with Cano -- but this is one of the things that occurred to me during the recent series.
timpinder - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#271168) #
I think that AA has to wear some of this. He is the reason Negrych is in AAA while Bonifacio continues to embarrass himself. He is the reason why Thole is in AAA while Blanco struggles and Arencibia plays 6 times a week with poor defense and on pace to break the MLB record for strikeouts in a season. He is the reason why Gose is in AAA while Rasmus fights with Arencibia for that same record. Monday is an off day. The time to panic is now. I want to see some changes before Tuesday's game. Thole and Negrych up, Blanco and Bonifacio down. This needs to happen and soon. Give Rasmus 2 or 3 more weeks and then bring up Gose.

They need to win both series with the Sox and sweep the Mariners. At 16-19 they are within reach. They're coming dangerously close to that time when the deficit becomes too great to overcome.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#271169) #

Some points that caught my eye:

Yes, the Jays had an above-average offense in the first half of 2012.   I disagree, Toronto had a very selective/productive offense that produced well.  It just wasn't a balanced attack.   How many times would one more hit (1 or 2) drive in a run (or 2 or more)?   Results in possibly 5 or 6 more wins, similar to 2012.

I assume the hitting will come around some although, as discussed here, its a bit "homer" driven right now.    That is unlikely at this time.   The hitters need to be sat down and told " what you are doing right now is not working.  What are you doing to change that?"

 

baagcur - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#271170) #
Anyone who thinks that a 90ish win team can't start like this has a short memory.

Are you sure?
Unless I've made an - admittedly possible -error, none of the 21 teams since the strike which have sported a 9-17 record to start a season have finished above .500
JB21 - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#271171) #
I think he was referring to the 89 Jays.
JB21 - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#271172) #
That stat is alarming though... Would've never guessed that.
Thomas - Sunday, April 28 2013 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#271173) #
The Thole-Blanco move looks no less puzzling today than on the day it was made. While Thole has finished 1st and 2nd in the NL in passed balls the past two seasons, I'll believe he's worse than JP behind the dish when I see it. And, it's not like Blanco is a defensive stalwart, as he has 5 passed balls/wild pitches in 33 innings.

I'm not at all convinced Negyrch is the answer, but it might be worth asking the question soon, as Bonifacio couldn't have been less than advertised so far.

I'm not a big proponent of roster moves that are in part change for change's sake, but something has to give if things don't improve on this homestand.
Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#271174) #
Also, if we want to talk about things that AA should be wearing, Travis Snider's .388 OBP and 812 OPS (in 67 plate appearances) in 2012 would rank third on the team in each category, behind Reyes and Lind/Arencibia. Meanwhile, Brad Lincoln has a 9.00 ERA in 2 major league innings pitching this year.
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 04:58 AM EDT (#271175) #

I'm not sure if this Team can even recover by July without a massive shakeup of the Team.  

I thought the Melky Cabrera acqusition was a good move at a very good value.  All he needs to be is better than 2010, if not quite as good as 2011.   That would be fair value.   I just didn't think keeping Rajai Davis was that good a decision.  His offense is average, his defense is sub-average, while speed is an asset, poor OBP renders it of little use.   Jose Bautista has missed a lot of time, and is apparently not trying to regain his stroke, just trying to mash HR.   Hitting .300 with only 20 HR is much superior to hitting .200 with 50 HR.   Colby Rasmus is supposed to be much better than he is.  That make him a disappointment to me.

Brett Lawrie is just finally starting to get his stroke back, but may yet be another week away.   April is almost over and he's done so little due to injury.   Jose Reyes injury was a surprise, such an ugly slide for no reason - other than not paying attention to the play.   His return might salvage the last half of the season, probably to no avail.   I always thought the Maicer Izturis signing was for the Bench, not as starting 2B.   I just don't think he's good enough there.   Emilio Bonifacio should be better than he is, with average or better defense at CF and 2B, with less than that at LF, RF, SS, 3B.   Edwin Encarnacion has gotten over his injury and his stroke is almost all the way back.   He's become a good defender at 1B, so offer options for playing.   Adam Lind is puzzling,  he's no longer striking out a lot,  but he's not hitting a lot either.   J.P. Arencibia has to learn that hitting just HRs is not that much if it is all he can do.   Henry Blanco is barely an asset for this Team.

Brandon Morrow may not make his start on Tuesday, if his arm hasn't recovered to being much better.   Josh Johnson will miss at least on start, but might miss more.   Mark Buehrle needs better pitch selection and control.   With still close to $45.0 MM remaining on his contract, he's going nowhere any time soon.  He has adjusted to his deficiencies each year.   He just needs to get better at it soon.   J.A.Happ wil had bad games, he's a 5th Starter and that expected occassionally.   The only reason R.A. Dickey's not 5-1 instead of 2-4 is mostly offense.

It's possible some of the defensive problems arise from having turf and not the slower grass.   But the offensive problems come from believing the Hype.   The only options even remotely possible to make are Gose for Rasmus; Sierra for Davis; Thole for Blanco; Negrych for Izturis and later Romero for Buehrle.   All other option involve trades, which rarely occur before June.

John Northey - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 06:32 AM EDT (#271176) #
Except Buehrle won't be dumped unless AA can pull off a Vernon Wells calibre trade - Buehrle makes $37 million over the 2014/15 seasons as well as $11 mil this year, finding a sucker to take that on will be hard unless he starts pitching like he used to and with that contract I don't see AA just cutting him and demotion to AAA isn't an option for a guy who has been around as long as he has (he could demand to be released instead with the Jays owing him that contract still).   Really, this team was set up for 2013/2014 as few players will be free agents outside of Johnson & Davis. 

Now, checking bWAR (doesn't include Sunday) we see Rasmus, Reyes, Encarnacion, and JPA as over 0.2, with Kawasaki, Davis, Bautista, and Lawrie at 0.1 (can flip with one game).  Sub-0 barely is Cabrera, Lind, Blanco, DeRosa (0.2 or 0.1 below).  Then Bonifacio at -0.4 and Izturis at -0.8 (ugh).  Pitching: Above 0.5 Cecil, Janssen, Delabar - never a good sign when your best pitchers are relievers.  Happ is at 0.4, then in the 0.1 to 0.2 range is Rogers, Santos, Loup and Dickey (who would've climbed a bit yesterday).  The 8th man crew of Gonzalez/Ortiz/Laffey/Jeffress are 0's as is Oliver, then Bush, Morrow, Lincoln just below (-0.1).  Buehrle and Johnson are at -0.3 and the bottom of the pile while making just shy of $25 million combined.  Ugh.

Really, this team needs to just figure it out.  Dumping DeRosa to bring up Negrych while benching Izturis more often isn't the worst idea, nor is dumping Blanco for Thole as both roles are backups and would be a small sign that playing poorly just isn't acceptable.  Finding a way to get rid of Davis or Bonifacio so Sierra could come up and get some time over Cabrera wouldn't be a bad idea either.  The first two moves I'd probably do (depending on scouts evaluations) but might hold off on the other outfield move as Sierra might not be ready for a 4th outfielder position yet.
China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 06:46 AM EDT (#271177) #
"....Brandon Morrow may not make his start on Tuesday, if his arm hasn't recovered to being much better...."

What's your source on this? I haven't seen a single person say this, except you. If you can't provide a source, please don't spread false rumors. It's damaging to our community here, which strives to be a fact-based and evidence-based community.
China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#271178) #
"....Travis Snider's .388 OBP and 812 OPS (in 67 plate appearances) in 2012 would rank third on the team in each category...."

I think it's too early to conclude that Snider is now a good hitter. The sample size of 67 plate appearances is pretty small. He's a streaky hitter who's had a number of good hitting streaks in the past, followed by major slumps. More importantly, you should have noted that Snider is being strictly platooned this season. He's had only 6 PAs against LHP this year (with predictably terrible results). Could the Jays afford another platoon player in the lineup, especially since Lind and Rasmus are often rested against LHP too? The Jays are already terribly weak against LHP -- would they want another hitter who can't hit LHP? Rajai Davis can't be the platoon partner for everyone.
Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#271179) #
I think it's too early to conclude that Snider is now a good hitter. The sample size of 67 plate appearances is pretty small.

I agree completely. I noted the number of plate appearances for that very reason.

And I take your point about not having too many LHBs who should be rested against right-handed starters, but if the Jays have Snider than some parts of the offseason would likely have played themselves itself out differently. Maybe the team dumps Adam Lind (whose OBP has been great, but I'm similarly skeptical he's going to sustain that). Maybe Melky's not signed and the team can spend that $8 million retaining the services of Brandon Lyon or convincing Koji Uehara that playing in Canada isn't that bad or finding a much better platoon bat than Rajai Davis.

China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#271180) #
Brandon Lyon? The Jays bullpen hasn't been the problem so far -- it's the hitters and the starting pitchers, surely?

I do think Anthopoulos is still struggling to get over his penny-pinching habits, even with the increase in payroll. I don't see Adam Lind rejuvenating his career as an OBP guy. The Jays need a stronger DH, but they didn't want to eat his salary.

Cabrera has been a disappointment too. It's early, I now, but I don't have confidence that he's going to turn it around. Again, it seems AA tried to get extra value for dollars by signing someone who had question marks -- and it might backfire against him.

As for Snider: the Jays gave him plenty of chances, he was out of options, he couldn't hit LHP and he's still unproven against RHP. It seems a defensible decision to look for a better solution in LF. Will Snider eventually prove himself as a good major-leaguer? It's not impossible, but we won't know for a couple more years.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#271181) #
It's not just that the Jays are 9.5 games back of Boston. They have other problems:

- Boston, New York, and Baltimore have all had strong starts, while Tampa is 7-3 in their last ten and is now 12-13 overall. The Jays now have four teams well ahead of them in their own division

- The Jays are second-last in the AL, which means that, division aside, there are about ten teams ahead of them for the two wild card spots

In other words, the Jays are going to have to play well for quite a while to clamber back to the top of the heap. They can ill afford another prolonged stretch of poor play.
Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#271182) #
On a positive note, Maicer Izturis' horrible start is (in my view) mostly bad luck and statistical illusion.  He's hitting the ball as hard as ever, hasn't popped up yet and somehow has managed a .194 BABIP rather than his career .294.  As for his defence at second base, it has been to my eyes entirely average. 

Negrych had had a big year in the Carolina League in 2008 at age 23 (hitting .370) and earned a promotion to the Eastern League where he hit .310.   He had a nasty injury in 2009, and maybe it has taken him this long to get back to where he was (or maybe it is just a hot streak).  Whatever it is, he has been far and away the best hitter in the International League so far this year.

Izturis will perform best (I think) if he plays 4 or 5 times a week, and I'd rather have Negrych out there than Bonifacio when Izturis is being rested.
Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#271183) #

China Fan, most sources I've read suggested that AA spent all the money he was given by Roges this offseason (and remember he had to sell them on the payroll increase for the Marlins trade). I would prefer a better DH than Lind, but I don't think you can characterize the decision to sign Cabrera as trying to get extra value for flawed players. Can you provide a hypothetical alternative signing in this year's free agent market? The best I have is Nick Swisher, which is a 60/4 commitment instead of an 16/2. That's a different financial ballpark.

And, yes, the Jays bullpen hasn't been a problem. But if the team signed Brandon Lyon, they might not have believed they needed to trade Aviles for another reliever and the team would have a better backup infielder than De Rosa (not that he's been the biggest problem to date this year either) and money to spend on a better right-handed reserve outfielder than Davis. Or, as I also suggested, retaining Snider and not signing Melky would have provided financial flexibility to upgrade at DH. (For example, perhaps the non-contending Twins would have dealt Josh Willingham for a non-elite prospect or two and the Jays could have taken on the 14/2 commitment left on his deal.)

You can argue about whether it was defensible or not to trade Snider for a pitcher the Jays seem to in retrospect, view as a middle reliever or setup man. But, if you support trading Snider and think Melky was the wrong singing, then you should come up with some hypothetical non-flawed outfielder and a reasonable scenario for where the money to make this move is going to come from.

China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#271184) #
"....hypothetical non-flawed outfielder...."

I doubt there are any "non-flawed" players in baseball. There's no perfect solution, and there are risks everywhere. I actually liked the Cabrera signing at the time. I'm not actually criticizing Anthopoulos for his decisions -- just trying to guess where he might have gone wrong, with the benefit of hindsight. And of course it's unfair of me to use hindsight to question a personnel decision which seemed good at the time. Almost all of us liked AA's moves at the time.
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#271185) #
"As for Snider: the Jays gave him plenty of chances,"

Nope. They traded him for a reliever without ever giving him an extended look as an everyday player.
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#271186) #
"On a positive note, Maicer Izturis' horrible start is (in my view) mostly bad luck and statistical illusion."

I still have no idea how Izturis' double yesterday didn't clear the wall. There's a jet-stream control room hidden deep in the cellars of Yankee Stadium.
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#271187) #
There hasn't been any power or speed, but Melky's .280/.337 line is pretty close to what one should've expected from him sans PEDs.
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#271188) #
Whoops, that Melky line was from last Sunday's boxscore. He had a rough week.
Grimlock - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#271189) #
Also, how did Adam Lind not score on that? Two-out, Boesch didn't pick it cleanly. Is he THAT slow that they wouldn't send him with Henry Blanco due up?


Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#271190) #
For his career, Snider is .237/.282/.381 against LHP.  He has entirely typical platoon splits. If you had made him your everyday RF, and shifted Bautista and Encarnacion right on the defensive spectrum, you would have ended up with a better defensive lineup all the way around, with little or no cost offensively.  With that set-up, you could have worked a platoon in left-field (with Gose?) where Davis is acceptable defensively. 

Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#271191) #
Also, how did Adam Lind not score on that? Two-out, Boesch didn't pick it cleanly. Is he THAT slow that they wouldn't send him with Henry Blanco due up?

Grimlock, me Mike think that poor Adam hasn't slept in a week on account of lovely newborn baby.  Me Mike will not make tasteless apple/serpent joke.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#271192) #
There hasn't been any power or speed, but Melky's .280/.337 line is pretty close to what one should've expected

The problem is the lack of power or speed.

Not mincing words in his April grades, David Schoenfield gives Melky an "F", citing his sub-600 OPS. He also hands out the following miscellaneous grades (among others):

Jays: F
Red Sox: A+
Yankees: A
Orioles: A
Darvish: A-
Vernon: A
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#271193) #
They traded him for a reliever without ever giving him an extended look as an everyday player.

PIttsburgh is using him as a platoon outfielder, not an everyday player, and has hit him at the bottom of the order or second. This will be recognized of course, as precisely how Cito Gaston tried to role him. At the time, the internet gallery went hysterical because Snider was a 'middle of the order masher' who had to play everyday instead of Jose Bautista, and hit in the middle of the order. The same folk are now relying on Snider's success, however brief, in the identical role that they were apoplectic about a few years ago and claiming that it supports his use as an 'everyday' player.

I hope Travis does well, but I wouldn't expect to see a continued .388 OBP from him, even as a platoon player. One thing that's perhaps good for him in Pittsburgh is the absence of the stuff he may have read on the internet while playing in Toronto. I wonder if that contributed to his ill-advised decision to resist Gene Tenace's advice.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#271194) #
David Schoenfield gives Melky an "F", citing his sub-600 OPS.

In my view, the front office appears to have made two significant errors for 2013. One was going decidedly light on the manager/coaching staff, with a bevy of minor leaguers - Gibbons, Mottola, Walker, Rivera. The second was believing that a PED cheat who was previously a fourth outfielder would provide stats similar to his PED stats and giving him the offence-heavy left field position. The reason these guys cheat is to magnify their performance, and post-PED Melky, as well as Ramirez' last days, as well as Bonds' PED numbers, give us a glimpse of the degree.

greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#271195) #
There is nothing wrong with acquiring players like Escobar, Rasmus or Cabrera, as long as you accept that you're adding both upside and risk to the team's profile. The Cabrera signing was a bit different than the Rasmus and Escobar trades, in that Cabrera was expected to hit second on a championship-calibre team.

Trading for Escobar and Rasmus was more of a roll of the dice in an effort to attempt to accelerate the rebuilding process, with not a lot of downside if they didn't work out.
Oceanbound - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#271196) #
Taking Cabrera's small sample size performance as somehow proof of ROIDS!!! smacks of jumping to conclusions. Not to mention the cherrypicking of examples there.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#271197) #
It's always hard to know how much is pitching and how much is defense - but this is a pretty sad defensive team. Lawrie is very good, and Rasmus is at least better than average - but everyone else on the team is below average at his position. While Bautista has a very fine arm, he gets the sort of jumps you'd expect from a converted infielder and he doesn't always get there. Davis has always made me crazy, of course. I suppose Cabrera is an average left fielder, but even that is a little depressing - the guy is still just 28 years old and he was a regular centre fielder not that long ago. What happened, and where did his speed go?

Arencibia is not a good catcher, not a natural catcher. I do have some hope that he'll improve there. The infield is the real problem, obviously. Kawasaki is fun to watch, but at shortstop his range and arm remind me a whole lot of David Eckstein - he's become a second baseman waiting to happen. Izturis at his best only approaches competence at second base, which is more than Bonifacio does. Encarnacion is not a good first baseman, comments by team broadcasters notwithstanding. He moves well enough, but he doesn't have very good hands. At least he doesn't need to throw as often.

There are an awful of outs that the pitchers are not getting. They haven't been good enough to make up for it.
Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#271198) #
I agree almost exactly, Magpie.  Two important quibbles.  Kawasaki's range is, to my eyes, better than average (and certainly a lot better than Reyes').  His arm, while weak, is stronger than Eckstein's.  Eckstein made it to age 31 as an average defensive shortstop.  I think that Kawasaki can do it a year or two longer, and a little better.  Arencibia, if anything, looks worse to me this year than last- he's been poor throwing out baserunners, in addition to not blocking pitches, and (it appears) not calling pitches that his pitchers in general have confidence in.  On the other side, I completely agree about Bautista- it might be the lingering effects from his injury, but he also looks much less mobile this year than previously. 

Still, the defence is indeed lousy.  Gibbons hasn't helped with some of his lineup decisions. Right now, the best thing for the defence would be to call up Gose, move Rasmus to right (or just play Gose in right if one is too wimpy to do the right thing) and make the shift of Bautista and Encarnacion. 

92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#271199) #
I can't think of plays Melky hasn't made, but I wouldn't even call him average out there. He looks VERY slow. I was also under the impression he had a stronger arm than what we've seen thus far.
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#271200) #
That would accept Lind as a sunk cost, which AA is clearly not prepared to.

I too find Kawasaki's range to be below average, but a tick above Reyes'. He hasn't been a problem, yet.

Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#271201) #
Not exactly a "sunk cost", 92-93.  You can give Lind starts once a week, giving Bautista or Encarnacion a rest, and use him as LH pinch-hitter.  He's a decent bench option.  Anyways, I thought that the club's goal was to win in 2013. 

Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#271202) #
PIttsburgh is using [Snider] as a platoon outfielder, not an everyday player

That's true, and I doubt he can sustain a .409 BAVG on his balls in play. But I'm kind of pleased by what he's done anyway. He had to fight through a crowd in Pittsburgh to claim even this role. The Pirates have Garrett Jones, who's been their second best hitter these last few years, playing either RF or 1B. They have Starling Marte - their big prospect - in LF. Those two guys are playing every day. For the other spot, either RF or 1B, they have Gaby Sanchez, who they hope can play first base, and Jose Tabata in whom they've invested a lot of money. Snider's had to win his playing time, and he did.

And while it's early, he might be making some progress reducing the strikeouts - he's got 15 Ks in 59 ABs. Which is still an awful lot, especially for a guy who isn't a middle of the order masher and isn't hitting any HRs at all right now. But 1 K in 3 ABs is closer to his career mark. So it's still progress, I think. Unless it's just the removal of LH pitchers from his life.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#271203) #
I agree with Magpie comments about the defence, and with Mike's quibbles.

I think Mike's Gose/Rasmus proposal is interesting and could happen, with the caveat that Rasmus (whose OPS has dropped 229 points since April 16) might play himself out of a starting job altogether. Right now, Cabrera/Gose/Rasmus doesn't appear to be a first-division outfield, even if Gose holds his own in his first full year.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#271204) #
A passing note in Schoenfeld's column today: Vernon Wells leads all AL outfielders in WAR. Whatever that means. I only said he was playing better than Trout and Hamilton.

At any rate, baseball fans in Disneyland are dashing to the shore and throwing themselves into the ocean....
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#271205) #
I have no idea why LA didn't work but this Vernon success doesn't come as a surprise to me. I thought at the time the Angels made a good move by getting Vernon for 3/63 instead of Crawford for 7/125 or whatever it was. People were so excited about getting rid of Vernon's contract they seem to have forgotten he hit .273/.331/.515 in his last year here with 31 HRs. Vernon always seemed to play his best when facing the Yankees and now he's playing his best FOR the Yankees.

Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#271206) #
I have no idea why LA didn't work

I always figured a lot of it began with the park - he could never hit in Anaheim - and then he started pressing. The team had expectations, he had his own expectations, he's a pro with a pride who wanted to earn his money.

Kudos to Jason Collins, most recently of the Celtics and Wizards, and kudos to whoever signs him as a free agent next year. He isn't the first active openly gay athlete in one of the major North American sports until he's actually playing somewhere.
Nigel - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#271207) #
The most depressing thing about Cabrera's defence is that it would only have taken a pro scout one visit to SF last year to know that his defence was bad - below average for a LF and the idea of him situationally shifting to CF throughout the year was never on.   His signing was the offseason move that made no sense to me.  If you assume that most of the offensive explosion in the last 2 years was PED related (so that he's more of a .700-.750 OPS offensive player) and he offers negative defensive and speed related value, then he's not much more than a 4th outfielder (which is where he was at, from a career perspective, a couple of years ago).  Making Cabrera a 4th outfielder would be near the top of my list of the changes that I would make.  I would jettison either Davis or Bonni (either would be fine by me) and bring up Gose.  I think it impossible that Bautista will be moved out of the outfield for optics reasons so I would have a Bautista LF, Rasmus, CF and Gose RF alignment or, if Bautista won't move from right, then a Bautista RF, Gose CF and Rasmus LF alignment.
Gerry - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#271208) #
If the Jays are going to turn it around this week they will have to earn it.  The next five starters against are: Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, King Felix and Iwakuma.  Sunday's opponent is Joe Saunders.
John Northey - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#271209) #
I suspect if things don't get better we can expect Rasmus to be traded in June or July so Gose can come up, with Sierra being given a shot as a 4th outfielder if they can find a taker for Davis.  Davis is a free agent at the end of the season and Rasmus is after 2014.  Johnson would be a trade candidate, as would Lind and Buehrle (if anyone would take him).  That would be odd - to see 2 of the guys in the Miami trade gone but it isn't hard to imagine if this team cannot get back to serious contention by July.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#271210) #
Magpie, that's an interesting observation. Wells hit better on the road than he did in Anaheim -- especially in 2011, when his OPS split was almost 200 points. However, he still hit fairly poorly on the road in 2011 and 2012 (234/266/483 and 241/286/420).

My guess is that his current success is some combination of:

- Swing/stance adjustments (perhaps based on Kevin Long's recommendations)
- Better ballpark to hit in
- Riding a hot streak
- Change of scenery / renewed motivation
- Familiarity with the AL East

We also need more data. He's had hot Aprils before (for example, in 2007, he hit 298/368/543 in April, but finished at 245/304/402). Conversely, he's had ice-cold Aprils during otherwise solid seasons (2004). Let's see how he does over the course of a full season.

In any case, I may have a man-crush on Kevin Long. I wonder if his contract would preclude him from giving private lessons to Rasmus and Lawrie during the winter months.
John Northey - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#271211) #
Magpie - wow, a player who might still be active actually announcing he is gay.  About time, although it would've been good if it was a star instead of a backup who is without a contract for next year.  I like how he said "If I had my way, someone else would have already done this. Nobody has, which is why I'm raising my hand.".  Good for him to break the ice a bit.  Should be interesting to see the homophobic quotes from some pro-athletes over the next few days - bet Escobar gets a lot of questions after his eye black last year - and to see who says 'good for him'.
Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#271212) #

He isn't the first active openly gay athlete in one of the major North American sports until he's actually playing somewhere.”

I don’t agree. He’s active in the sense that he’s actively seeking a contract next year. That’s hugely important in breaking this cultural barrier.

"although it would've been good if it was a star instead of a backup who is without a contract for next year."

This misses the point in a huge way.

Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#271213) #
That’s hugely important in breaking this cultural barrier.

Agreed, but if no one signs him - and he's very much an end-of-the-bench guy at this stage of his career - it's a little more like the John Amaechi story.
Ryan Day - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#271214) #
It's unfortunate that Wells' legacy is largely dominated by his contract. It's a bad contract, sure, but he got it by being a pretty damn good player. (He just wasn't consistent enough to really deserve it, and then had some injury problems.)

Now he's with the Yankees, so who really cares how much money he makes? They can pay his salary with money they find between the couch cushions.
Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#271215) #
Collins is the first active openly gay male athlete in a major North American pro sport.  There have been at least a couple in the WNBA. 
Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#271216) #

I don't think it's like the Amaechi story in a meaningful way. Amaechi came out three or four years after his NBA career ended. Twelve days ago, Jason Collins played 17 minutes against the Chicago Bulls.

I don't follow basketball very closely at all, but I recognize that Collins doesn't have many NBA years left and, those that he does have left, will likely resemble this one in terms of minimal playing time and minimal production. However, if Collins never plays another NBA again (and I think he will) than this will still have a hugely significant impact in terms of how it is viewed by fans, other athetes, the media and other cultural forces. Some of it may be negative, unfortunately, if his sexuality is perceived as a reason that contributed to him not getting another contract offer, but the discussion around the subject has an entirely different context here than it ever did with Amaechi or the other players who have come out after they retired or were no longer active. As difficult as it may have been personally and as important as it was to lead up to this moment, Collins has broken down a door (and I think several will follow in the coming year) that Amaechi didn't, regardless of whether he ever scores another point in the NBA.

Anyhow, I don't know if we're getting into non-Box discussions here or not...

Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#271217) #
Not to mention Martina Navratilova, who was a pretty major athlete herself.

I do think someone will sign Collins. I think someone like Mark Cuban, if not necessarily Mark Cuban himself, will want to break that barrier. The initial reaction of support from people like Doc Rivers, Kobe Bryant, and Jason Kidd is certainly encouraging; Collins does seem to be very highly regarded and respected around the league.
Gerry - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#271218) #
Marc Rzepczynski has been shipped to the minors.
Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#271219) #
...the WNBA players who are out include Brittney Grenier. There are also players who are openly gay in women's professional soccer and male team sports abroad. But there is something fundamentally different, to North Americans at least, about the men's major four team sports.
ayjackson - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#271220) #
Of course, Robbie Rogers came out earlier this year and immediately announced his retirement. Not sure if the two anouncements were related. It was huge news amongst professional footballers on both sides of the pond and may have aided in today's news.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#271221) #
I don't know if we're getting into non-Box discussions here or not...

Hey, it's an off day!
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#271222) #
Snider's had to win his playing time, and he did.

Well, Snider was out of options this year, so they couldn't send him down. After the trade last year, he posted a rather ugly 83 OPS+ with PIttsburgh in about twice as many AB's as this year. Notwithstanding that he was the presumed opening day left fielder going into spring training, at least according to reports

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2013/03/04/travis-snider-not-fazed-by-possibility-of-platoon-in-left-field/

he ended up in a platoon in right with Jose Tabata, who although righthanded gets some of the starts vs. righties. I suspect that Snider would have been sent down had the Pirates been able.

So to the extent that he wasn't put on waivers notwithstanding having just been traded for, or put full-time on the bench, he's earned his playing time.

A week or so ago, his OPS was apparently 100 points higher but he's coming back to earth as the sample increases and is also now once again hurt. Having said that, a rough platoon of him and Sierra couldn't have been less tolerable than Melky Cabrera.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#271223) #
he was the presumed opening day left fielder

The linked article is simply, and weirdly, wrong. Starling Marte was always going to be the Pirates left fielder. That was quite settled by the end of last year. Snider, Tabata, Alex Presley, Brad Hawpe and heaven knows who else were all counting on Garrett Jones ending up at first base (instead of Gaby Sanchez) so one of them would get the right field job.

Snider has started one game in LF for Pittsburgh - it came while Marte was injured last September. With Sanchez in the lineup at 1B, Jones moved from 1b to RF, and Snider moved from RF to LF.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#271224) #
Dave Cameron considers the implications of the Jays' very slow start in light of the competition, historical comps, etc.:

I still see the pieces of a good team in Toronto. Without Jose Reyes, though, it’s harder to see them playing like a great team for five months, and their April performance means that they have to play like a great team for five months or their season will end without a playoff spot. It’s too early for the Jays to give up and punt the season, but it’s not too early for us to note that Toronto’s season is now very likely going to end on September 29th.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-blue-jays-are-in-trouble/
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#271225) #
I suspect that Snider would have been sent down had the Pirates been able.

That's possible - Snider and Tabata were a wash this spring, and Presley was a little better than both of them. But on the other hand - he's Alex Presley. Presley makes my team if the job is to be a backup, but not as a starter. Not even a platoon starter. I think he's a slightly better DeWayne Wise.
Gerry - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#271226) #
Aaron Laffey has opted to become a free-agent.
Chuck - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#271227) #
Aaron Laffey has opted to become a free-agent.

I found some loose change in my sofa. Maybe I'll sign him. Someone's got to cut my grass.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#271228) #
Laffey has had a pretty decent career for a 28-year-old pitcher. He's made far more money than the overwhelming majority of aspirants can expect to earn in professional baseball.
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#271229) #
I would have been impressed by Collins' decision to come out if he wasn't unemployed and desperately clinging on to his career. I'm surprised by suggestions he may not find a job because of this; on the contrary, I think this decision provides momentum for his career, both in the NBA and on the endorsements side. I'd guess 99% of casual sports fans in America went to sleep last night having never heard of him, and that same figure will know of him by tomorrow.

92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#271230) #
Aaron Laffey's no-hitter for the Yankees at SkyDome is going to be fun, eh?
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#271231) #
I think this decision provides momentum for his career

Maybe. But as many teams may not want what they'll regard as a distraction to the main business of the season. His career continuing was always a 50-50 proposition anyway. (Literally, according to Nate Silver, who found 18 similar players, 11 of whom played the following season!)
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#271232) #
And if he doesn't find an NBA job he's basically guaranteed himself a job/role in another capacity by coming out today. Colour me skeptical.
jerjapan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#271233) #
Wow, 92-93, I like your alternative viewpoints, but that's the most cynical statement I've heard in months.  Collins is the first male pro athlete in a major team sport to come out and you think it's a cash grab?  Do you have any idea how hard it is to come out gay, in any environment?  Much less publicly?  was Jackie Robinson just an opportunist too? 

Frankly, even if you are 100% right (and, obviously, you are simply speculating based on ... nothing perhaps?) this is a banner day for equality. 

China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#271234) #
The comments by 92-93 are appallingly cynical and twisted. He seems to have no understanding of the atmosphere of homophobia in professional sports, even after the Escobar incident last year. It takes a lot of courage for a professional athlete to acknowledge that he's gay. Why are there so few examples? Because it takes courage and guts. If anyone doubts the sincerity of Jason Collins, I'd urge them to read his eloquent and moving essay in SI. Here's the link:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/magazine/news/20130429/jason-collins-gay-nba-player/#all
vw_fan17 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#271236) #
And if he doesn't find an NBA job he's basically guaranteed himself a job/role in another capacity by coming out today. Colour me skeptical.

I tend to agree.. Let's see.. He's had 12 years (as an NBA player - no idea if he was ever a starting player or not - I follow the NBA very little) to come out. When does he do it? Right when he's angling to extend his career for another year or two. I think it's a little opportunistic and last-minute desperation play, sort of like pulling the goalie or a hail-mary pass. Why? Well, either he doesn't get resigned, and then he's done anyway, and maybe he was planning on coming out after retiring all along (he wouldn't be the first), in which case, he may get the honorary title of "first openly gay active athlete" just by doing it before he officially retired, etc. - kind of securing his place in history by doing it a few days earlier than others. Or, it works and gets him another contract from some owner wanting/needing PR. In which case, he's got the contract he wanted, and, any criticism of his poor/declining play will be labeled as homophobia and he'll get to ride a wave of media coverage kissing his feet at every turn for being courageous, etc. And in a year or two when he's really done and retires, he'll have the historical title of first openly gay athlete. Yes, it could be tough, but, it would seem that the potential upside is much higher than the potential downside for him.

Don't get me wrong - I think it takes guts to do what he did as a pro athlete. But, it's a little like (just to pick names I know - I am NOT saying ANYTHING about their orientation) Miguel Batista coming out. Sure, he's had a decent career, but there's a good chance he'll never play above AAA again. If it gets him one more MLB contract, he'll probably take it. If he never plays again, oh well, it's not like he had a 5-year contract anyway.

It would take a lot more guts (IMHO) for someone Justin Verlander or Joey Votto to come out: around their prime, just signed a big contract, are expected to be in the majors for another 5-10 years, etc. I would be even more difficult, I would imagine, as an NHL player, where everyone hangs out together.
JB21 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#271237) #
93-93, not all opinions need to be said out loud, or put to print for that matter.

I'll take my own advice and leave it at that.
JB21 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#271238) #
How would you know how many guts it would take? Or how would anybody know for that matter? He's the FIRST.

Time for me to log off battersbox for the day.
China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#271239) #
"....kind of securing his place in history by doing it a few days earlier than others...."

So you're expecting a wave of other athletes to do the same thing now? Maybe you can explain why it took 100 years for any pro athlete to do this. If anyone wanted to "secure his place in history", they had decades to do it. Yet somehow nobody did it. Are you actually suggesting that Jason Collins was the first to have this brilliant idea of how to get glory and fame, and so that's why he did it? Hundreds of athletes had this wonderful chance to get "PR" and "a place in history" and yet oddly enough nobody did it until now. Hmmmm. You can't think of the reasons why it was so incredibly difficult for anyone to do this in the past?

"....It would take a lot more guts (IMHO) for someone Justin Verlander or Joey Votto to come out..."

This is a bizarre statement. Now you're attacking Collins because he's not Verlander? You're saying he's not "gutsy" because he's not a superstar? This shows a pathetic misunderstanding of courage. Courage is not somehow dependent on your athletic ability. Courage is the ability to face attacks and scorn and ridicule and homophobia.
vw_fan17 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#271241) #
So you're expecting a wave of other athletes to do the same thing now?

I am not. However, several athletes have already come out after retiring. If he doesn't get another contract, he'll be the "earliest to come out" after retiring. Sure, he may not want to retire now, but if he doesn't get another contract, he'll have played exactly 0 NBA games after coming out, and he'll have come out after playing his last professional game - does it matter if it was a day after or a month after or a year after?

My point was: the timing of the announcement seems suspect because money is on the line, and the announcement CAN have an impact on his future earnings. If he had just signed a 2 year contract and came out at the start of it, then that would be (IMHO) a whole different kind of "coming out".

I am not saying he's not gutsy because he's not a superstar. I am saying that the amount of courage required could depend on the expected amount of future time spent in the spotlight, and also the perceived benefits. Before this announcement, from what I've gathered, he had even odds of never playing another game, based on his talent.

Am I saying that he's not genuine in his announcement? No. However, the timing could have been much better, IMHO. He doesn't have much to lose by coming out now (if he planned to come out after retirement anyway), but a good chance at personal gain (another contract, media attention, endorsements, etc) precisely because of this announcement. If he did this after securing another contract and deciding that since it was probably his last year that he would come out, that would be (to me) very different than doing so before he knows if he'll ever play another game, and this announcement having the potential to greatly increase his chances of doing so. If he get another contract and plays badly, lots of people will say he was only signed because he's gay and the team wanted/needed the PR, which surely doesn't help anyone. 


Magpie - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#271242) #
It's true, however, that Collins has been more or less universally applauded while Escobar (and Tim Hardaway before him) were treated as unift for civilized company. I would agree that Collins has probably helped himself if he's angling for a post-playing career role in the media, or as an activist.

If that's all he's doing. But first and foremost, this was a personal matter. And he says he still wants to play, and in that case he may have made what was already a somewhat complicated situation slightly more complicated. At this stage of his career, finding work is already threading a needle. Only a few teams have a specific role that fits his capabilities (the Raptors aren't one of them - Aaron Gray, with his player option for next year, has that job.) And this is precisely because he's not Justin Verlander, who can do or so pretty well any damn thing he wants, knowing someone will still be glad to let him pitch.

Collins has one huge advantage on Jackie Robinson - he's already very well known and well regarded around the league. I think it's unlikely he'll have any problems with other players - and if he does, those guys will get straightened out.

The fans in opposing arenas may be another matter.
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#271243) #
Please don't lecture me on what I do and don't understand, China fan. It's telling that you didn't counter what I said, as you normally would, and instead chose to attack me in a roundabout way. I made my point clear; try making yours. Nobody is questioning the courage it takes for ANYBODY (this isn't limited to professional athletes, scrub or not) to come out of the closet.
China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#271244) #
"....a good chance at personal gain (another contract, media attention, endorsements, etc)...."

This is bizarre thinking. You think a player gets a contract and more endorsements because he's gay? If this is true, why aren't thousands of players pretending to be gay so that they can cash in on the great bonanza of the gay money?
China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#271245) #
"....I made my point clear; try making yours...."

Reading comprehension issues again?
92-93 - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#271246) #
"You think a player gets a contract and more endorsements because he's gay?"

I think that's exactly what's going to happen in this specific case, yes.
China fan - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#271247) #
Cynical, cynical, cynical. I don't doubt that you believe this, but you're not providing any evidence for this conspiracy theory. You're implying that his alleged greed is outweighing all the homophobia, discrimination and attacks (physical and verbal) that have deterred every other professional athlete in history. If you actually want to convince us that Collins is a hypocritical liar who is motivated only by money, please provide some actual evidence, rather than innuendo. The burden of proof is on you to persuade us that he's lying about his motives.
Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#271248) #
If it's true that Collins  gets endorsements because of his announcement, that would be delightful and a signifier that times have changed quite a bit.  If it does happen,I am pretty sure that he'll find an appropriate place to park the cash.  There is a legal fight right now about the bizarrely named Defense of Marriage Act, and some greenbacks wouldn't hurt.  Or even better, there are places in the world where it is dangerous to be gay; I am sure that there are organizations outside North America that could use it for their battles.

Now, maybe it's time to return to the topic of the bizarrely named "blue jay defense". 



Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#271249) #
For what it's worth, in a radio interview today with Blair and Hayhurst, AA said "we haven't talked about anything like that" in reference to promoting Jim Negrych.
Thomas - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#271250) #
92-93, it's plausible that Collins will get an endorsement or contract as a result of this announcement that he wouldn't have otherwise (although we'll probably never know for sure).

However, I don't see the connection between that possibility and the idea that his announcement was unimpressive (as you said) or opportunistic (as another poster said). Whatever happens to Jason Collins with regards to NBA career or his post-NBA life (and who is to say he may not have wound up in the same career as wherever he winds up in 5 or 10 years), his announcement was impressive and selfless, regardless of whatever benefit he may or may not derive from it.
Gerry - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#271251) #

Some info from Rosenthal:

Already, though, there are rumblings that the Jays don’t have the right mix — “Alex loves to collect players,” a second rival exec said, referring to GM Alex Anthopoulos. “But putting a team together is different than collecting players.”

Infielder Mark DeRosa even called a players-only meeting Sunday, according to the New York Daily News, saying, “There’s just a bad vibe creeping in here and we need to address it.”

I’m not shocked that the Jays are off to a 9-17 start, particularly after losing Reyes — they brought in not only a number of new players, but also a new manager, and sometimes it takes times for such teams to gel.

Mike Green - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#271253) #
The Astros take Andy Pettitte to the woodshed tonight.  It's a funny game.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 29 2013 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#271255) #
92-93 merely questioned whether Collins' career would in fact suffer. That's a legitimate question that isn't 'anti-gay' or discriminatory. One of the most beloved athletes in America from the last century is Martina, and the fact that she was honest about her sexuality a long time ago is one of the reasons for that popularity. Collins may get a Nike line that he never would have gotten. I don't know that this will happen, but 92-93 doesn't merit a fundamentalist stoning for suggesting that it's a possibility.
Thomas - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#271257) #
CBDC, nobody called 92-93 either of those words and I don't think anyone implied that his comments were anti-gay or discriminatory. What several commenters, including myself, appeared to object to were his comments about not being impressed by Collins' announcement and his suggestion that the announcement was entirely self-motivated and only done for the purposes of extending his playing career or securing a post-playing career job.
JB21 - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#271258) #
Matrtina is one of the best tennis players of all time, and is still on TV. That's why she's still famous. Chris Everett isn't gay, and is at the same level as Martina.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#271259) #
"and his suggestion that the announcement was entirely self-motivated and only done for the purposes of extending his playing career or securing a post-playing career job."

I said nothing of the sort. When you start using words like "only" and "entirely" you completely misrepresent what I was saying.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#271260) #
Chris Evert is nowhere near as recognizable as Martina.
Thomas - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#271261) #

I will modify only to primarily. However, I don' see how else to reasonably interpret comments saying that you were unimpressed by his actions and skeptical of the motivations behind it.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#271263) #
At their peaks she was, but there are key differences.
Evert: 1309-145 with 157 titles with 18 GS singles titles and 3 doubles GS wins.
Navratilova : 1442-219 with 167 titles (the record), 18 GS singles titles and 177 doubles wins (modern record) with 31 GS doubles wins plus 10 GS mixed doubles titles.

Navratilova also won titles from 1974 (as a 17 year old amateur) to 2006 when she was a month shy of her 50th birthday.  Basically, Evert was great but Navratilova was the best.

Imagine - she started in 74 when Aaron broke Ruth's HR record, and finally retired when Felix Hernandez was in his first full season in the majors.  That is a long career.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#271265) #
Matrtina is one of the best tennis players of all time, and is still on TV. That's why she's still famous. Chris Everett isn't gay, and is at the same level as Martina.

It may seem like that to someone watching now on TV, but for people who were there your statement sounds like saying Ali and Larry Holmes were famous because they were both great boxers. The word I used was 'beloved', and Martina was beloved because she wore everything she felt on her sleeve, and always has. She was fiercely honest, about her sexuality, about her feelings about communism, about her feelings about America, about how she played. When she played Wimbledon, it was always 'Martina' vs whoever, and her heart was in every point. And everyone wanted her to win.

I don't think Martina was as good a tennis player as Steffi Graff, but when ESPN did a list at the turn of the century, Martina ranked at the top of all tennis players, and among the greatest athletes of the Century. That was a subjective finding of course and much of that was who she was, and part of who she was had always been a young lesbian woman who was honest and open about it.
adrianveidt - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#271272) #
There's a lot of misspelling of names going on here. Evert, not Everett. You can see some of the effects of Navratilova's public lesbianism in the 30 for 30 doc "Unmatched" -- about the Navratilova/Evert rivalry. Martina was the better player on most surfaces, but Chris Evert is the greatest clay court player ever, and owns a number of mind-boggling, untouchable records on that surface.

I don't think it's very shocking or surprising anymore to find a female athlete who's also a lesbian. Weeks ago Brittney Griner announced she was a lesbian, and there wasn't much reaction, at least compared to Collins. Griner is even more significant because she's headed towards being the greatest player ever.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#271274) #
Martina was the better player on most surfaces

Plus she was the serve and volleyer and played a more elegant game than backcourt.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 30 2013 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#271307) #
Collins Historic Gay Stand Seen Bringing Riches If He Wants http://bloom.bg/ZfW0ca via @BloombergNews

"If anyone can relate to Jason Collins, it’s Golden State Warriors President Rick Welts, a former National Basketball Association chief marketing officer who says the first openly gay male athlete in a major U.S. team sport can cash in by coming out"

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