About a year ago, I introduced a new stat called Dominance Ratio (DR), right here at the Box. Now that a year has passed, I thought I would revisit my top 10 list of dominant minor league starting pitchers and make a new top ten list for 2013.
The concept behind Dominance Ratio (DR) is to set the negative pitching events such as hits and walks against the ultimate mark of pitching dominance - the strikeout. The measure is most useful for minor league pitchers because of the way professional baseball is structured.
The minor leagues are like a giant funnel, with talent flowing from the low minors through the system into the major leagues. The harsh reality is that at each level, you have to out-compete your peers. As you rise through the system, the hitters get more "strikeout resistant". Those pitchers who dominated at the lower levels should still succeed, but a great majority of the rest find that their stuff no longer works. They hit a wall and their progress is halted unless they can figure out how to adjust.
Dominance ratio can help us identify pitchers who are not necessarily highly-touted but who have performed well enough to justify major prospect status, even if Baseball America hasn't cottoned on yet. One member of the spring 2012 top ten list was a relatively unheralded left-hander in the Reds organisation, Tony Cingrani. Last year we watched him carve up the minor leagues and because of an injury to Johnny Cueto, he is a now thriving in the Reds starting rotation. Here is a "where are they now" review of the other 9 pitchers on last year's list.
After absolutely destroying the Sally league at Delmarva (no earned runs in 30ip), the Dylan Bundy train slowed down in the high-A Carolina league: Bundy was merely excellent there. He made 3 starts at AA and got a cup of coffee with the Orioles during the 2012 pennant race. He hasn't pitched in 2013 yet due to right elbow tightness, and is now officially linked with the most feared words in pitching - "James Andrews". Jumped from #10 rated prospect to #2 this preseason on the BA100 list.
Taijuan Walker lurks just off the spring 2013 DR top ten list - his relative youth being his greatest attribute. He pitched in AA last year as a teenager and the Mariners have decided to start him there this season. Walker has had a touch of walkitis, but has otherwise been very good and should see AAA within a few months. On track to make an impact with the big club late this year or next season.
Jameson Taillon also makes the spring 2013 honourable mentions list. The consensus is that Taillon has fallen behind fellow star prospect Gerrit Cole in the race to the Pirates rotation. HIs relatively low strikout rate in the Florida State League in 2012 causes me some conern, but he's ratcheted it up since being promoted to AA
Cody Buckel was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school in California in 2010. In 13 starts at Myrtle Beach of the Carolina League, Buckel was brilliant, earning a promotion to the Texas league. He did well and started in AA this year. However, Buckel has been terrible in four starts with 22 walks in 9 inniings - an occurence that was completely unexpected. Something is wrong, no doubt, but let's hope its not an injury that has caused a change in pitching mechanics.
The lustre had faded a bit on Danny Hultzen towards the end of last year, as he struggled with his command after promotion to AAA. Hultzen was the #2 overall pick out of U of Virginia in 2011 and was on the BA Top30 list in 2012 and 2013. He's rebounded with a very good start in 2013 and I expect to see him in the Seattle rotation soon. He makes the top 20 on the spring 2013 DR list.
An Angels supplemental first rounder in 2010, Tyler Skaggs started 6 games for the Diamondbacks. BA has been touting him since 2011 and he shows up at #12 of the BA100 list this spring. The lefthander was included with Patrick Corbin, Joe Saunders and Rafael Rodriguez in a trade to Arizona for Dan Haren. Skaggs begins the year at AAA and I expect to see a mid-season promotion into Arizona's rotation.
Apart from Cingrani, the great success story from last year's list is Jose Fernandez. Born in Cuba and drafted out of Tampa high school baseball, his meteoric rise through the minors is impressive. However, the decision to skip AA and AAA and land him in the Marlins rotation has drawn criticism. And indeed, Fernandez does appear to be raw, though the physial tools are in the mold of a classic righthanded power pitcher. Not on the BA100 list in 2012, Fernandez has jumped to #5 on this year's pre-season list.
Christian Friedrich was the oldest player on the DR top 10 list. After his hot start to 2012, Freidrich was promoted and had a rough MLB debut season with a 6.17 era in 16 starts, mitigated by a good 74k/30W ratio in 84.2 IP. He'll be 26 in July this year and starts the season in Colorado Springs again.
After the great disgorging of talent, Aaron Sanchez is one of the few blue chip prospects left in the Jays system. A solid performance at Lansing/MWL has propelled Sanchez to #65 on the BA100 list. He starts the year at Dunedin/FSL and has to overcome walk issues to progress quickly.
In part 2, I'll look in detail at this year's list, and some age and level adjustments I've made to make the Top 10 list less subjective.
The concept behind Dominance Ratio (DR) is to set the negative pitching events such as hits and walks against the ultimate mark of pitching dominance - the strikeout. The measure is most useful for minor league pitchers because of the way professional baseball is structured.
The minor leagues are like a giant funnel, with talent flowing from the low minors through the system into the major leagues. The harsh reality is that at each level, you have to out-compete your peers. As you rise through the system, the hitters get more "strikeout resistant". Those pitchers who dominated at the lower levels should still succeed, but a great majority of the rest find that their stuff no longer works. They hit a wall and their progress is halted unless they can figure out how to adjust.
Dominance ratio can help us identify pitchers who are not necessarily highly-touted but who have performed well enough to justify major prospect status, even if Baseball America hasn't cottoned on yet. One member of the spring 2012 top ten list was a relatively unheralded left-hander in the Reds organisation, Tony Cingrani. Last year we watched him carve up the minor leagues and because of an injury to Johnny Cueto, he is a now thriving in the Reds starting rotation. Here is a "where are they now" review of the other 9 pitchers on last year's list.
After absolutely destroying the Sally league at Delmarva (no earned runs in 30ip), the Dylan Bundy train slowed down in the high-A Carolina league: Bundy was merely excellent there. He made 3 starts at AA and got a cup of coffee with the Orioles during the 2012 pennant race. He hasn't pitched in 2013 yet due to right elbow tightness, and is now officially linked with the most feared words in pitching - "James Andrews". Jumped from #10 rated prospect to #2 this preseason on the BA100 list.
Taijuan Walker lurks just off the spring 2013 DR top ten list - his relative youth being his greatest attribute. He pitched in AA last year as a teenager and the Mariners have decided to start him there this season. Walker has had a touch of walkitis, but has otherwise been very good and should see AAA within a few months. On track to make an impact with the big club late this year or next season.
Jameson Taillon also makes the spring 2013 honourable mentions list. The consensus is that Taillon has fallen behind fellow star prospect Gerrit Cole in the race to the Pirates rotation. HIs relatively low strikout rate in the Florida State League in 2012 causes me some conern, but he's ratcheted it up since being promoted to AA
Cody Buckel was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school in California in 2010. In 13 starts at Myrtle Beach of the Carolina League, Buckel was brilliant, earning a promotion to the Texas league. He did well and started in AA this year. However, Buckel has been terrible in four starts with 22 walks in 9 inniings - an occurence that was completely unexpected. Something is wrong, no doubt, but let's hope its not an injury that has caused a change in pitching mechanics.
The lustre had faded a bit on Danny Hultzen towards the end of last year, as he struggled with his command after promotion to AAA. Hultzen was the #2 overall pick out of U of Virginia in 2011 and was on the BA Top30 list in 2012 and 2013. He's rebounded with a very good start in 2013 and I expect to see him in the Seattle rotation soon. He makes the top 20 on the spring 2013 DR list.
An Angels supplemental first rounder in 2010, Tyler Skaggs started 6 games for the Diamondbacks. BA has been touting him since 2011 and he shows up at #12 of the BA100 list this spring. The lefthander was included with Patrick Corbin, Joe Saunders and Rafael Rodriguez in a trade to Arizona for Dan Haren. Skaggs begins the year at AAA and I expect to see a mid-season promotion into Arizona's rotation.
Apart from Cingrani, the great success story from last year's list is Jose Fernandez. Born in Cuba and drafted out of Tampa high school baseball, his meteoric rise through the minors is impressive. However, the decision to skip AA and AAA and land him in the Marlins rotation has drawn criticism. And indeed, Fernandez does appear to be raw, though the physial tools are in the mold of a classic righthanded power pitcher. Not on the BA100 list in 2012, Fernandez has jumped to #5 on this year's pre-season list.
Christian Friedrich was the oldest player on the DR top 10 list. After his hot start to 2012, Freidrich was promoted and had a rough MLB debut season with a 6.17 era in 16 starts, mitigated by a good 74k/30W ratio in 84.2 IP. He'll be 26 in July this year and starts the season in Colorado Springs again.
After the great disgorging of talent, Aaron Sanchez is one of the few blue chip prospects left in the Jays system. A solid performance at Lansing/MWL has propelled Sanchez to #65 on the BA100 list. He starts the year at Dunedin/FSL and has to overcome walk issues to progress quickly.
In part 2, I'll look in detail at this year's list, and some age and level adjustments I've made to make the Top 10 list less subjective.
