I wonder how much of the Jays offensive woes is due to the unseasonable cool spring and the Jays having a significant latin content in their lineup ?
Buehrle Vs Kuroda seems a longshot - would be a great confidence booster to win this one.

Some days a Buehrle - Kuroda matchup will favor one pitcher or the other. Toronto needs to create enough offense so that whoever's Starter is favored doesn't matter.

It's possible most of Toronto's woes came from Spring Training. The Starters were not ready to start the season because they didn't pitch enough regular Spring innings. That lasted two weeks. Brett Lawrie was hurt getting ready for the WBC and he's still a week or two behind. Edwin hurt his hand during the WBC and he's just getting his stroke all back. Jose Bautista has been hurt most of the Spring and a lot of the season. He could be two or more weeks getting his stroke back. Half this Team was missing for 17 days (WBC) and no one has that much confidence in his teammates as yet. Jose Reyes going down was painful. Nobody's ready to relax and enjoy the game yet. When that happens the hitting will come around. Everyone's still trying to get that 5 RBI at bat every time at the plate. Cold weather isn't mattering as much.

Amen.

Don't care if it's Chinatown or on Riverside
I don't have any reasons
I've left them all behind
I'm in a New York state of mind

Nasty Nas

What am I talking about, that's Billy Joel, no?

Everyone remember to avert your eyes when Buehrle pitches to Wells. One of the more lopsided batter-pitcher matchups in the game these days.

Oh, let's have a different New York song!

We’re so young and pretty, we’re so young and clean,
So many things that we have never seen.
Let’s move from Ohio, sell this damn old store,
Big Apple dreamin’ on a wooden floor.
Skyscrapers and subways and stations,
starin’ up at the United Nations.

New York is waiting for you and me, baby,
waiting to swallow us down.
New York we’re comin’ to see what you’re made of,
are you as great as you sound?

Called it Magpie

They can score well when they can do more than solo HRs. Getting hits doesn't help when that one more, run scoring hit never comes. Have you noticed how cold this team can be for inning after inning? Had to win games like that. Is Buehrle done, or is J.P. not the right catcher for him?

Buerhle was never very good against the Yankees, especially in Yankee stadium. Too easy to hit home runs off him there, as we can see tonight. Now the Rays, thats a different question. Just get him to pitch against them all the time.

When the Jays traded with Miami they thought they were getting an ace starter and an average starter. So far the ace has been average and the average guy has been replacement level.

Another game, another loss. If this keeps up much longer what do the Jays do? Nothing- hope things sort themselves out? Make coaching/ managing changes? become sellers and start dumping contracts? What would you do and when would you do it? Myself I'd do the first with maybe a few player promotion- demotions but come July if things were not much better I'd be trading the worst contracts if at all possible starting with Mr. Buehrle.

Who is due 18,000,000 next year, and 19,000,000 in 2015.

This is seriously getting depressing.

Buerhle was the price to getting a guy who is on the DL because he didn't pay attention to a hit ball. Johnson was always going to be a 1 year rental, and he will bring back a draft pick, but the hope is that he was going to be better than he has been.

Then again we get what we ask for. How many people last year were saying who cares about the prospects, lets win now. Well this was always a possible outcome to that plan, regardless if we traded for proven players or signed them and lost the draft picks that way. Of course we'll always be a bit bitter about Yu Darvish.

Am I sure glad I've never wasted as much of my employer's money as the Boy Genius apparently has.

I'd say there's no way the Jays are getting out of Buehrle's contract (and that's regardless of whether he's pitching like normal Buehrle or 2013 Buehrle to date), but AA did get of Wells' contract. Unfortunately, a side result of that move was to set up unrealistic expectations for future deals.

The trade with the Marlins always carried a significant amount of risk. To date, 2013 has illustrated all of the negative possibilities.

Want scary?  Guess who in the lineup tonight has the highest OBP after the game? 

Kawasaki.  At 317.  That's it.  Ugh.  I think we just covered why the Jays cannot score with that one stat.  Nothing against Kawasaki, but if he leads the active players (not counting Lind or Reyes) in OBP then there is a serious problem.

Nailed it, John.

EE's hitting is recovering and so is Lawrie's, and Rasmus is weirdly productive despite his astronomical strikeout ratio (at least for now). JPA has been above expectations in all respects, and Davis has met his. But Reyes is gone, Bautista is at .180 (and we've been playing too long for it to be a mere slump), Bonifacio has been well below replacement level in all facets, Izturis is in the mid-100s BA, and Adam Lind is Adam Lind. For our OBP to be much good, we'd have to have several guys with walks equal to hits.

On the mound, I recall that right here, there was a lot of clear-eyed assessment of MB along the lines of "5th starter in the AL East." Unfortunately, he has been that - AND is on track to fall well below the innings pitched expectations held by many people who made that assessment. He is walking more guys than usual, but I see a guy who too often makes his pitch on the edge of the zone and gets hit anyway. That isn't reassuring. How the hell did Jimmy Key do it?

Regarding the Bautista note above, check his April stats by year over his career as a Bluejay.

For goodness sakes, just bat Kawasaki 9th. His numbers over an extended period show he is pretty much a sinkhole. I'd love to see an temporary lineup like this against RHP

Lawrie
Melky
Bautista
Encarnacion
Arencibia
Rasmus
Lind
Izturis
Kawasaki

It wasn't bad enough to start this way after having legitimately higher expectations, but we have to watch our past castoffs like Jayson Nix beat us.  And have Vernon seemingly find his stroke after three years in the wilderness makes this incredibly bitter. Another firm, swift blow to the midsection for a hardcore fan base that has seen plenty. We can only hope a '03 May awaits us.

Buehrle's slow fastball is too straight to have much value. Pitch selection is the key, but control is his problem, it slipped. Mark's got a lot of good pitches that move well. Just throw at the glove and let the pitches move.

This Team is designed to compete over the next three years, just check Cot's. If A.A. cannot re-sign Johnson, A.A. will make a qualifying offer to obtain another draft pick. No Team in this division will run away with it, so Toronto will always have a chance.

I'll say this in defense of the current record: this strikes me as a streaky team. I think this is the kind of team who could lose 5 in row and then win their next 8. I think we have a lot of streaky hitters and some streaky pitchers too. Hopefully it isn't wishful thinking to believe that the win streaks are on the horizon. For now I listen to the games with a paper bag over my head.

I remain optimistic about this club for this season, current situation notwithstanding.  There is depth down the middle of the diamond, a very good power core, good starting pitching and a pretty good bullpen.  Lawrie's home run off Kuroda (and his lineout to the wall on Wednesday) is a very good sign.

I do think that they should bring up Negrych and Thole, and give them significant roles.  Thole is a better defensive catcher than Arencibia, and likely his equal as a hitter against RHP.  Negrych would probably do better than Izturis or Bonifacio against RHP, as well.  The club needs more people on base, and Negrych and Thole would help with that. 

I thought a hot April was vital with the Yankees hurting and Tampa figuring out who they have.  Sadly, it has been the opposite as the Jays are currently 6 1/2 behind the Red Sox, 4 behind the Yankees, and 1 1/2 behind the Rays (Baltimore is 4 1/2 ahead).  At the moment both wild cards would come out of the East with Oakland percentage points back of the Yankees. A top 3 finish in the east could do it, but the way the Jays are playing... ugh.

If you go by SRS which factors in strength of schedule the Jays are worse with 11 teams ahead of them and just LA (who feel the same as the Jays about now I figure), Seattle and Houston behind the Jays.

Offense: Jays team OBP is 14th out of 15 in the AL at 291.  Team Avg is 15th at 224. OPS+ is 87.  On the positive side, the Jays are #2 in home runs, #4 in stolen bases, #3 in triples, and 3rd in sac flies.  If you go by PA the #5 guy has a 26 OPS+ (Izturis), #7 has a 43 (Bonifacio) while our regular at third base (Lawrie) has a 38 OPS+.  Ugh.  Omar Vizquel hit better last year with a 49 OPS+ and no one wants him back let alone having 3 hitters doing worse.

Pitching: ERA+ is 97, with all 7 relievers who have appeared 3 or more times having a 140+ ERA+ - wow.  Just 11 2/3 IP for the other 5 allowing 10 runs = 7.71 ERA but hopefully Lincoln will end that.  The rotation though... ugh.  Happ has a 115 ERA+, then Dickey at 90, then Morrow at 80 (getting ugly), Buerhle at 66, and Johnson at 62.  Johnson and Dickey both have over 4 BB/9 (ugh), Buehrle and Morrow are both under 6.5 K/9 (OK for Buehrle but not for Morrow), Buehrle Morrow and Johnson all have HR/9 of 1.3 or higher with Buehrle at 1.9 - far, far too high.

So the perceived weakness coming in, the pen, has been a major strength.  The expected strong suit, starters, has been a horror show.  Another strong suit, depth offensively, has been an illusion.  If the offense and starters come back to eyeshot of their norms though this team could be really good.  Lets keep hoping.

JJ scratched with triceps tightness, Laffey to make the start tonight.  Oh joy.

More good or bad news, depending how you think he's been pitching. Johnson is missing his start tonight as a precautionary measure.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_04_26_tormlb_nyamlb_1&mode=preview&vkey=preview_web_away&c_id=tor

In other good news- contrarians of the world, unite (or not)- Ricky Romero will get his first FSL work tomorrow. 

That Halo over AA's head keeps slipping to the side & the sarcastic "NINJA" jokes will start making an appearance  - soon the media will see blood & the negative stories will proliferate - whom will be the 1st to get shipped off the sinking ship? 

"....soon the media will see blood...."

Actually the fans have been seeing blood for weeks already, while most of the mainstream media, by contrast, have been voices of calm and reason. (I can't speak for Zaun or Hayhurst or McCown, since I don't listen to them; I'm referring to the main print reporters and beat reporters.)

For evidence of fan anger, just check out this thread alone, where we already have one Bauxite making sarcastic jibes about "Boy Genius" who is "wasting his employer's money."

If the Jays don't make the playoffs this year, I think most people will say that Anthopolous at least gave it his best shot. Second-guessing will always be possible. Did he stake too much on risky players like Cabrera and Buehrle and Johnson? Should he have waited another year before investing the big bucks? Or conversely did he not spend enough? Should he have persuaded Rogers to boost payroll by $50-million instead of $30-million so that he could have perhaps acquired a better 2B or DH or another pitcher? Hindsight will provoke lots of debate.

In the meantime, I'm certainly not writing off the season yet. And at the very least, AA has provided us with an interesting team to watch, regardless of what happens.

He's probably on a shorter leash as he is not American, like the inept Burke and Colangelo

Of course a better pitcher would have meant Happ was not in the rotation and the team might be even worse off

Keep the spirits up. 13% of teams with 9-14 start since 1996 have made playoffs

 To my mind the biggest mistake was not going for Darvish last year.  He was clearly a high end talent who was young and would've been signed for 6+ years.  The cost was known, $52 mil plus whatever he signed for officially.  High risk, but as the Rangers have seen high reward.

The other issue is health.  We have Reyes out with a freak injury (a guy who has stolen as often as he has getting hurt doing so is bad luck), Bautista injured early on but not going on DL when he probably should've, Lawrie hurt and brought back too soon, and Santos hurt. 

Next comes ineffectiveness.  Romero some here guessed early on and AA had an insurance policy in Happ that has been a good investment so far.  The rest of the rotation though... ouch.  Who guessed only Happ would have an ERA+ over 90 at this point?  The offense has been killed by Bonifacio and Izturis and Lawrie (see coming back too soon from injury) after slow starts from a few others (Encarnacion, Bautista in particular).  JPA has been 'wow', Reyes was 'wow'.  Lind has been better than expected in a weird way (great OBP, poor slg), as has Rasmus (terrible OBP great slg).  Cabrera ... sigh... seemed worth a shot, lets hope he gets going soon or gets going in a different way (out of town).

The key thing is getting guys like Lawrie, Izturis and Bonifacio to not be sinkholes and for the rotation to remember how to pitch.  Get those things going and I suspect we'll see what we thought we'd see.

"The cost was known, $52 mil plus whatever he signed for officially."

It was not known. It was a silent bidding process. Neither did we know what Darvish would tltimately sign for. Our best guesses here had Davish's bidding rights as high as $80 million. 50 Milllon was pretty much where they thought the bidding would start (based on Matsuzaka), but not very many of us thought that was roughly where it would end as well.

I think we're in for a very healthy dose of regression to the mean. That's all we need to turn this season around.

Things that need to improve for this Jays team to be successful:
 
- The rotation is underachieving and does not have an identity.  Nobody is stepping up and saying “I’m an ace and this team isn’t going anywhere unless I pitch like one”
- The lineup is giving away too many at-bats.  The only reason Kawasaki is batting high in the order is bc he seems to be the only guy trying to a) maximize his abilities and b) make the opposing pitcher work
- Jose is clearly not performing like he did the last 2 years.  He is obviously having a much harder time reading off-speed pitches than usual, and swinging and missing at way too much soft stuff.  It’s likely a combination of rust, bad calls affecting his approach and maybe lingering back or other issues but he is not a #3 hitter right now.
- Lawrie is clearly rusty and will improve.. it’s just not clear to what level he will improve as a hitter.  Is he going to be in Bryce Harper’s class (as some thought) or will he be more Eric Hinske?
- Rasmus needs to be able to hit more than low straight fastballs.. he is predictably terrible if a pitcher throws him anything else.  I hope the Jays coaches have some plans for this…
- Maicer / Bonifacio / Davis /Kawasaki are all good bench players who shouldn’t be playing more than 2-3 full games a week on a contending team imo.  Injuries may determine otherwise but these guys playing less could enhance their performance
- Melky has to either hit like a high on-base slugger, or lose some weight and be a faster gap and line-drive hitter.  He’s just an average complementary piece now and we need more than that (especially hitting 2nd)
- The Jays have to WIN at least the first game of each series at home!  Not narrowly salvage the last game…  slow down the air leaking out of the goodwill bubble they were enjoying.  Speaking of which, that home-opener video montage celebrating AA’s summer moves before Game 1 was a needless effort that only set expectations high for both fans and players… I’ve never seen anything like that before and thought it was a BAD idea.  Jays fans were already pumped so there was nothing to gain.
- They can’t dwell on bad calls and injuries.. the Yanks are missing Granderson/Jeter/Arod/Tex + Pineda and are beating the Jays with our own castoffs!!  Imagine the Jays missing Reyes/Jose/Edwin/Lawrie + Happ and beating a mostly healthy Yanks team?  NEVER!!
 
The good news is that I think most of these things can improve with time, as the team gels and players begin to trust each other and understand their roles.  The bad news is that there could easily be more bad news…  more injuries, unhappy players etc.
 
Regarding media looking for blood… even though Griffin from the Star isn’t so clearly anti-Jays (as he was during Ricciardi days), I feel like there is an obvious pattern easily visible on the front page of the Star’s sports section.  Jays lose?  Front page article describing their loss.  Jays win?  Little or no mention on page, need to go to page 3-4 to see that they won.  Yesterday’s page was the exception where the headline said something like ‘ugly win but they’ll take it’.
 

Actually, AA said quite clearly he felt you either bid high (meaning over the record) or low (and hope no one else bid high).  Given Texas got him by barely cracking the record that means AA knew what to spend if he wanted Darvish.  As to what Darvish would demand, what do you have 1000 scouts for?  Generally it isn't hard to guess either - as a rule you match the posting price to get someone to sign, sometimes a bit more sometimes a bit less but it is a good rule of thumb.  I'm not saying it wouldn't have been a heck of a risk, but boy does it look like one well worth it now.

Agreed on the regression to the mean being something the team is overdue for.

Everyone has their own theory for the Jays dismal start. Here's mine. It's actually something I and others (sam for sure) have touched on and that is the promotion of Mottola and Walker to the hitting and pitching coach jobs. The analogy in my mind was AA buying a new Lexus and giving keys to his 18 yr olds. They may be excellent drivers and it could turn out well but a lot of things could also go wrong.

I did like the hire of Mottola, he seemed to do a good job in Vegas. Walker not so much. I was not at all a fan of Walton and there seemed to be too much of a tie-in with the failures of last season. Now hiring a bullpen coach as pitching coach in and of itself may be a good move - Boston seems to be doing well with Melvin Nieves. However, Nieves had spent the past 5 years with Don Cooper in Chicago, who by all accounts is one of the premier pitching coaches in baseball.

I am not saying this is the only factor causing the underperformance of so many on the team, but it also may be playing no small part.

Oops. Lucky for Boston they hired Juan Nieves rather than Melvin Nieves as pitching coach. Ex-outfielders have not traditionally done well in that position.

"Jose is clearly not performing like he did the last 2 years."

Au contraire, he's performing a lot like he did last year.

Jose Bautista, April 2012: .181 / .320 / .313, 103 PA

Jose Bautista, April 2013: .180 / .286 / .459, 70 PA

....as pitching coach. Ex-outfielders have not traditionally done well in that position.

Is the sample size big enough for such a definitive statement?

Actually, AA said quite clearly he felt you either bid high (meaning over the record) or low (and hope no one else bid high).  Given Texas got him by barely cracking the record that means AA knew what to spend if he wanted Darvish.  As to what Darvish would demand, what do you have 1000 scouts for?  Generally it isn't hard to guess either - as a rule you match the posting price to get someone to sign, sometimes a bit more sometimes a bit less but it is a good rule of thumb.  I'm not saying it wouldn't have been a heck of a risk, but boy does it look like one well worth it now.

AA MAY have said he had some kind of bidding strategy - but, what's to prevent others from using the same strategy? There was NO WAY TO KNOW that $50M, $52.5M, $55M, $60M, $65M, $75M, $80M or $2M would have won the bidding. AA is not all-knowing.

He's probably on a shorter leash as he is not American, like the inept Burke and Colangelo

While it took a bit, Burke did build a Leafs team that made playoffs, which was his main mission (they're 90% his team).

I like AA, and agree with most of his moves. He's been very unfortunate so far. Right now, it looks like all the offseason changes resulted in a paper tiger, nothing more. Let's hope it turns around soon.

I think each of his off-season moves were defensible on the merits, though I can't say I loved any one of them. But there was a consistent logic to them, and he certainly displayed a lot of nerve in executing them, which I admire.

But leaving aside the fact that each of the more ballyhooed additions has been poor to middling, the off-season moves were premised on the idea that the core of the team that was returning for 2013 was capable of leading the team to the verge of contention, and that the arriving cavalry would be able to put them over the top. Believing that required a fairly significant leap of faith, and nothing I've seen from Arencibia, Rasmus, Lawrie, Morrow, et al suggests that this group was anywhere near ready for prime time. The trades were always risky, but the more serious miscalculation to date appears to be the notion that last year's 73 win team was somehow better than the record showed. Anyway, it's a long season and I hope they pull out of it before they dig themselves too deep a hole.