Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Game Thread

Game Thread - 4/17 vs. Chicago White Sox

Use only in well-ventilated area.

Two lefties are on the bump. Jose Quintana (0-0, 4.09) goes for the Pale Hose. J.A. Happ (2-0, 3.48) throws the first pitch for your Toronto Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. Eastern Time.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 04:02 PM EDT.

Game Thread - 4/17 vs. Chicago White Sox | 60 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#270505) #

It's interesting that Rasmus is in the lineup today vs. a LHP. Perhaps Gibby is reconsidering his willingness to put Bonifacio in the field.

In the last 5 days, Cecil has appeared twice and thrown 14 pitches. Rogers has appeared once and threw 7 pitches. Oliver was the only RP other than Delabar to throw last night, and it was only 4 pitches. It is a game like today, especially with Bautista hurting, where it makes no sense to me to have Ortiz on the team instead of, say, McCoy. If the game gets out of hand you get 40-50 pitches out of Rogers and then call up a reliever to help you get through the next few games.

Jonny German - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#270506) #

While it's the defensive butchery that draws attention, Bonifacio hasn't been hitting a lick either. Meanwhile Colby has been the best hitter on the team other than Reyes. So I'd say it was an easy call for Gibbons.

Here's the lineup:

Davis-RF
Cabrera-LF
Arencibia-C
Encarnacion-1B
Lawrie-3B
Rasmus-CF
DeRosa-DH
Izturis-2B
Kawasaki-SS

This would look a lot better to me with Davis at DH and Casper Wells in RF.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#270507) #

I agree with Jonny. DeRosa hasn't looked too bad at the plate (notwithstanding the ugly batting average), but Davis at DH and Wells in RF would have also had a defensive advantage.

Thomas - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#270508) #

I also don't think it's a given that there would be a need to call up an additional reliever even if today's game got out of hand and the team was carrying Wells instead of Ortiz.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#270509) #

Toronto is 1-1 so far this week. After going 2-4 in week one and 3-3 in week two, Toronto needs to go a minimum of 4-3 this week to keep fans encouraged and attending games. I would, of course, be happier with 5-2 or 6-1. Starters are putting it together, shouldn't Offense be doing the same?

92-93 - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#270510) #

It's been a very encouraging turn through the rotation, that's for sure.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#270513) #

Quintana is dealing. Representing for command-and-control types everywhere.

JB21 - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#270514) #

The offense has been struggling but the lineup on the field isn't exactly the planned 2013 lineup. Nice to have Lawrie back but he's playing catch up at this point. We need Bautista back, and Edwin heating up.

Would've been nice to get last night's game, we can't afford silly little mistakes with this lineup out there.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#270517) #

Kawasaki sure had a nice at-bat a while back. The immovable object 1, the irresistible force 0.

eudaimon - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#270518) #

One thing we haven't talked about in the whole Ramon Ortiz discussion is why AA called up a pitcher who has sucked for years, didn't play in the big leagues last year and is 40 in a month.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#270519) #

Not a big fan of Gibbons waving the white flag down 5 runs with 4 innings left. That's when you bring in a rested Esmil Rogers, not the 40 year old scrub you just added from waivers. Of course it's possible Gibby has even less faith in this offense than some of the fans.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#270520) #

One thing we haven't talked about in the whole Ramon Ortiz discussion is why AA called up a pitcher who has sucked for years, didn't play in the big leagues last year and is 40 in a month.

If you want to run roughshod over your Pythagorean record, you have to lose some 10-0 games. Whatever.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#270521) #

At the very least Ramon Ortiz better finish this game.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 17 2013 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#270523) #

The good - Kawasaki has been 'wow' since coming up, solid on defense and is hitting over 300 somehow.
The bad - Happ didn't have it, but even if he allowed just 1 run he'd have lost
The OK - Ortiz came in and did what he needed to do, namely save the good relievers for another day

China fan - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#270524) #

"....Ortiz came in and did what he needed to do, namely save the good relievers for another day...."

Exactly. I don't know why some fans feel that this is a worthless asset to have on the 25-man roster.

Thomas - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#270526) #

Exactly. I don't know why some fans feel that this is a worthless asset to have on the 25-man roster.

C'mon. Nobody has argued a 7th reliever is worthless.

Also, Esmil Rogers had pitched to three batters over the previous four games entering last night. He could easily have pitched most or all of the innings that Ortiz did. And as for "saving the good relievers," between Loup, Cecil, Oliver, Delabar and Janssen, I think the Jays would be able to survive in a situation where "good" relievers were needed if Rogers was unavailable tonight.

John Northey - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#270527) #

Of course, if there is a tight game tonight you want a full compliment available in the pen. Plus the same for the night after that. Ideally you have at least 3-4 relievers fully set to go every night, with as few as possible unavailable (ie: pitched multiple innings the previous game or threw in 2 of the past 3 games).

ogator - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#270528) #

I know that this may be hindsight speaking but I would much rather have Travis Snider in left field than Melky Cabrera (and for a fraction of the cost) Snider has more power, more speed and more potential and was way more fun to watch.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#270529) #

Pitching in a scoreless game is difficult at the best of times, but one scoreless inning is possible. Pitching with a three-run lead is so much easier as mistakes are not as serious. Most Pitchers find it easy to pitch well then. That`s Quintana`s excuse, what was Happ`s? Ramon Ortiz came in and did the job he was supposed to do. It`s possible he pitched better than Happ? If a Starter goes down, who comes up? Ortiz might. A.A. is auditioning our 6th Starter, and Ortiz might be it, because no one else seems as close.

Missing Reyes` bat, Bautista`s bat and Lawrie`s bat (had almost no Spring Training) is a huge hole in the Offense, while Encarnacion`s injury set him back a week or two. How ready was everyone to start the season? I think they were behind, or are not that good to start with. Maicer Izturis was A.A. first big signing of the Offseason, and was reported to be our second baseman. Posters on this site though he was the best available Free Agent 2B,and I thought so too. Emilio Bonifacio is not supposed to be that bad deffensively, but then he`s not getting steady play (4-5 games) at any one position. Is that uncertaincy causing offensive problems as well. Mark DeRosa wasn`t signed to be a regular, yet he was doing it earlier. Reyes was our best hitter. Kawasaki is now our best hitter (and that is sad).

Last Season, missing Bautista`s bat, Arencibia`s bat, Lawrie`s bat, this team sucked offensively. Guess what! They are missing WHO?

Gerry - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#270531) #

Even if Tom Henke and Duane Ward were in the bullpen last night they Jays were not winning the game. Their problem is the offense. Their two best hitters are injured. Kawasaki has been one of their best hitters since he was recalled. Otherwise the offense has these numbers:

OPS below 600: Lawrie, Blanco; DeLaRosa; Izturis; Bonifacio; Lind; Davis

OPS just above 600: Melky (616)

OPS just above 700: EE (703)

That is 9 hitters with well below average performance.

The top perfomer in OPS is Kawasaki. Rasmus and Arencibia are hitting well too.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#270532) #

Kawasaki has easily been the best hitter (over an obviously small sample), and it has not been a fluke. The key point being that he has not yet struck out and has drawn 4 walks. Is that sustainable? Obviously not. What it does suggest is that the 115 poor PAs in Seattle in 2012 is not reflective of what he can do in MLB.

It may indeed be that the club's best option right now is to stick him in the leadoff role. Theoretically, Lawrie (or Bautista!) would be better choices, but they're not going to do that.

zeppelinkm - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#270534) #

I agree with the assessment on Kawasaki. He's such a refreshing change of pace. To see someone battle and battle and extend at bats is totally different and a welcome change. I'd get him in the lead-off spot. 10 pitches to him oughta tire the pitcher a little bit, and hopefully let some mistake pitches out over the plate to the bigger bats in the lineup.

92-93 - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#270535) #

I doubt Kawasaki can hit enough to lead off, but if you can play a decent SS and rarely strike out there will always be a place for you in baseball - managers love hitters like that, it really opens up their options when he's at the plate. Kawasaki at SS batting 9th won't be the reason this team doesn't play well.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#270536) #

Don't get me wrong. I am not suggesting that Kawasaki is a great, or even a good, option as a leadoff hitter. I just think that he's a better choice than Bonifacio/Davis. Until Reyes returns, he is probably the best choice given that the club doesn't want Lawrie leading off (mostly for development reasons, I think).

Magpie - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#270537) #

I doubt Kawasaki can hit enough to lead off

Agreed. He did hit .296/.347/.381 in Japan and as I said last week I think he should be able approach those BAVG and OBP numbers in the majors. But even so... he's an injury fill-in, and if an injury fill-in is assigned one of the key offensive roles on the team, surely something is amiss.

He is fun to watch. He's a bit of a throwback - a guy who doesn't grip the bat down at the end as swing as hard as he can, who bunts a lot to keep the corner infielders in tight, who works and works the pitcher until he gets something he can lift past the infield. There used to be lots of hitters like that. The last really good one I remember was Brett Butler.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#270538) #

It was 2008 when the payroll was last expanded, and John Gibbons began the year as manager. The last couple of days have left me thinking about the comparison between the 2008 team and the one 5 years later.

In 2008 Rogers bumped the payroll up around $100 million. The team was 12th in the majors in payroll, which I think is the relative position they hold today

Like this year, there were high hopes and expectations for the team. The rotation featured Doc, Burnett, Marcum, McGowan for half the season, and Litsch, with Ryan, Downs, League, Accardo and Frasor in the pen.

The offence had Wells, Rios, Rolen, Overbay, Scutaro, Hill, and Frank Thomas until he was released.

It was a pretty good team in the end. For the last 88 games, under Cito Gaston, they played at a clip that would have won them 94 games in a full season. But under John Gibbons the team was sometimes just poor and sometimes terrible.

In April 2008 the team went a poor 11-17 and finished the month 5.5 back. After 15 games though, they had a better record than they do this year. If the White Sox series was a three-gamer, they'd have lost each of their first three series at home this year. They still might.

In May of 2008, it looked like the ship could be righted. By May 30, the team was 30-26, and within 3 games of the lead. And then the bottom fell out.

From May 30 to June 20 the team lost to everyone, everywhere. They lost to the Angels in Anaheim and the Yankees in New York. And they lost to the Orioles at home, the Mariners at home, and the Cubs at home. They went to Milwaukee to get swept by the Brewers, and John Gibbons was fired. They had lost 6 consecutive series, losing 14 of 18 games. Doc had two of their 4 wins in that period, Burnett and McGowan the others.

When Gibbons was fired in 2008, the team was 10.5 back and the season was, for practical purposes over. We remember that Gaston took over and the team went on to win games. They won at a clip that would have netted them 94 wins over a full schedule. I thought at the time, that their success under Gaston may have been like a social science experiment I learned of as an undergraduate, where various changes to a factory like lighting all caused a positive outcome in productivity, just by being changes. But that didn't explain why they played so poorly for John Gibbons.

I don't know how the players view John Gibbons I don't know whether they view him as a man of any gravitas. I don't know whether they respect his decisions.

I'm not calling for Gibbons to be let go, I'd like to see him succeed. But i have to think that it has occurred to some at the top that the two most recent times the Jays increased payroll and expectations, John Gibbons was put in charge on the field. My own guess is Gibbons' April in 2013 had best be better than the 11-17 mark from 2008 as I don't think the cord this year will stretch to June 20 if it's not.

92-93 - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#270539) #

There is no chance whatsoever John Gibbons gets fired by June 20th.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#270540) #

Agreed. He did hit .296/.347/.381 in Japan and as I said last week I think he should be able approach those BAVG and OBP numbers in the majors. But even so... he's an injury fill-in, and if an injury fill-in is assigned one of the key offensive roles on the team, surely something is amiss.

In this case, the injury fill-in is for the leadoff-hitter, and like I said when Kawasaki was acquired, he was a better than average fill-in and he is particularly well-suited to the leadoff role (in the Mickey Rivers/Brett Butler style). The run environment of 2013 is a lot like the environment of 1975-85, and it shouldn't really be a shocker if a leadoff hitter emerges who might have come from that era.

The question always is: who is the alternative? If it's Brett Lawrie, sure. If it's Jose Bautista, I'll jump and down in my sabermetric shoes. If the club is going to acquire somebody who can leadoff and DH, great. In the meanwhile, what?

greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#270541) #

I don't see how Gibbons can be blamed for the Jays' slow start. His two main problems have been (1) a slow start by his starting pitchers (although they seem to be coming around), and (2) injuries to key players (Bautista, Lawrie, Reyes). There have also been some weak performances by a few other starters, including EE, who may have started slowly because of a jammed finger at the end of spring training.

It seems to me that the success of the 2013 Jays has always been premised on health, especially with regard to its starting pitchers and #1-4 hitters (with Lawrie also a key cog). The team's depth is being tested early on.

Lylemcr - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#270542) #

In what way is this Gibbons fault? Some players need to look themselves in the mirror.... When a team loses 7-0 there is not a move that the coach could have made that would have won the game.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#270543) #

I don't see how Gibbons can be blamed for the Jays' slow start.

I don't think it works that way. In 2008, the FO didn't wait until people could see how Gibbons could be blamed for the teams' play. Very rarely are there a series of in-game managerial blunders like Tuesday which explain a series of losses. Nevertheless, managers of teams that are expected to win and don't, very often are let go. That's been his history here, and while some may wish to think it's an impossibility, I think it's a real possibility that has occurred not only to me but to him and to the FO (not to mention DeMarlo Hale).

greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#270544) #

Nevertheless, managers of teams that are expected to win and don't, very often are let go

This is true, but I don't imagine that the front office has started contemplating Gibbons's ouster. At some point this could occur (just as any manager of any team could be fired), but why worry about it on April 20th?

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#270545) #

but why worry about it on April 20th?

As Bill James once wrote about the Jays, 'the problem is we acquire a history'. James was talking about the teams' late season collapses and failures to advance, problems that were soon corrected. In Gibbons' case, and this was my point, he comes with a history, one the FO has given him a second chance to overcome, but I don't think they'll toss the season if the team is playing .400 ball at the end of the month or by mid-May. I suspect he's on a shorter lease than someone without a history.

Four Seamer - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#270547) #

If AA, having convinced Rogers to part with considerable sums of money to boost payroll significantly and take advantage of a competitive window, feels compelled to publicly acknowledge by June 20th that he made a terrible error in rehiring John Gibbons, he'd be signing his own death warrant within the organization. If this team continues to scuffle, and struggle to draw flies to the RC as a result, he will have a lot of angry shareholders to answer to - and while he might be tempted to find an early scapegoat, he can't do so without drawing nervous questions about his hiring acumen. For that reason alone, I can't imagine any scenario where Gibbons is relieved of his duties during the season.

But in any event, of all the things wrong with this team to date, few of them can be laid directly at Gibby's doorstep. Most particularly, he's not responsible for the less than ideal roster construction that has made the team less than the sum of its parts (which may have been overvalued anyway, given that most of those who have been injured have something of an injury history to begin with, and a number of others are playing well below expectations, but expectations for players coming off drug suspensions, for instance, are notoriously hard to peg with any degree of accuracy).

greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#270548) #

I don't think they'll toss the season if the team is playing .400 ball at the end of the month or by mid-May

And what happens if the team plays .400 ball for a month or two under Gibbons's replacement? Do you rinse and repeat until the team starts to win, damn it?

eudaimon - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#270549) #

No chance he gets fired. Even great teams have bad stretches. I think we actually have a pretty good record based on how badly a lot of the team has played (which has little to do with Gibby after everything's said and done) and the injuries to Reyes and Bautista.

I think as well that AA went all-in by hiring Gibby. Firing him would make him look pretty bad as someone else said.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#270554) #

I think that it's likely that the Gibbons re-hiring had the approval of Beeston. I imagine that both AA and Beeston would need to be in on any firing decision. This is nothing like 2008; Gibbons has just been re-hired and the start that the club has had is not surprising given the amount of time lost by key players.

The Oakland A's have started 12-4 behind Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Bartolo Colon, A. J. Griffin and Tommy Milone. Jarrod Parker and Josh Reddick have been terrible, with Brett Anderson merely OK. At this point, the A's are 5.5 games ahead of the Jays in the standings which obviously means something but does not in my view reflect the talent or managerial acumen on the teams. Sample size.

Bautista needs to get healthy and Lawrie needs to play. The one thing that Gibbons needs to really figure out is who is the 6th starter. There is none available right now in the minor leagues; Romero's return is at least 4-6 weeks off and Nolin is hurt. It looks to me like Cecil would be the best option, if a need arose, and Gibbons ought to be using Cecil in longer stints to prepare him for the role.

Four Seamer - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#270555) #

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#270557) #

he'd be signing his own death warrant within the organization....few of them can be laid directly at Gibby's doorstep. Most particularly, he's not responsible for the less than ideal roster construction

i don't think there's a person in baseball who thinks that Anthopoulos would be signing his 'death warrant' by letting Gibbons go, or that gives a moment's thought to some internet hyperbole about why having Casper Wells or some other fringe player rather than a relief pitcher would have the slightest affect on the Jays' start. On the other hand, I think there are a number of people in baseball who are beginning to ask how long Anthopoulos will go with Gibbons if the team's performance doesn't turn around.

John Northey - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#270561) #

Sheesh people, the team is 5-9 after having serious injury issues to 3 key offensive performers and losing one of the key starting pitchers for who knows how long. In 1993 they had a 6-10 stretch from April 28th to May 15th but they didn't fire anyone over it. Heck, from June 30th to July 11th they were 1-10 for crying out loud (2-12 over a 14 game stretch).

This is hardly a panic time. This is a 'figure out what parts are here' time. Need Bautista to get healthy and Lawrie to get into the swing of things. Just remember, 14 games is not even 10% of the season.

Paul D - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#270563) #

CDC, I disagree with you on one point. Firing Gibbons this June would be a huge black mark against AA. Completely different level than letting Casper Wells go, for example.

In terms of the 6th starter, could it be Brad Lincoln?

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#270564) #

Pity poor Maicer Izturis with an ugly .163/.200/.326 line. He's actually been hitting the ball pretty well. He has 2 homers, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts in 45 PAs. He has 21 ground balls, 8 line drives, 12 fly balls and no popups. He should be hitting .310/.350/.475 with decent luck, but instead bupkes. An infield of Lawrie, Kawasaki, Izturis and Encarnacion should be just fine. An outfield of Cabrera, Rasmus and Bautista should also be just fine. Patience.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#270565) #

Brad Lincoln could be the 6th starter, but the club would first have to move him into the role in Buffalo. Given his flop last year, it wouldn't be a bad idea for both Lincoln and Cecil to be lengthened.

Chuck - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#270566) #

The Oakland A's have started 12-4 ... Sample size.

Yes, sample size. And strength of schedule. They are already 6-0 against Houston.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#270568) #

(warning, the following may be somewhat overly melodramatic and given to hyperbole. However, it's kind of how I'm feeling at the moment)..

I haven't followed every game, although I've watched most of 5 or 6 and parts of the rest (at minimum, MLB's "condensed" games).

Some random thoughts:
-I know Lawrie missed time, but man, the 3 swinging strikes I saw in the condensed game last night, he looked lost, as if he'd never seen a breaking ball in his life.

-the Jays offense, while bad, hasn't been "abysmal". Jays have 54 RS, 11th worst. There are 10 other teams in the 49-59 RS range (+- 5). Texas, with 53 RS has a winning record. So, not great, but nowhere near the bottom of the league (MIA has 32 RS!!)

-Jays pitchers have 81 RA - 29th, 1 ahead of Houston at 82. There are only two other teams in the 76-86 RA range. Both have records WORSE than Toronto. In fact, of the 4 worst teams in terms of RA, 2 of them have more RS than the Jays, and one is only 2 behind: San Diego with RS/RA of 61/75 is 5-10 (.333). LAA is 52/79 (same differential as Jays), leading to a record of 4-10 (0.286). Houston is 61/82 for a record of 4-11 (0.267). To me this says, not only has the Jays pitching been bad, it has been very, VERY bad up to this point. And they are lucky, maybe even VERY lucky to be 6-9. In fact, you have to go all the way to Washington at 64/74 (10 more RS, 7 less RA) until you get to a team with a better percentage than Toronto. The offense has been "low-middle", but the pitching has been bottom-of-the-basement level so far. Not good news for AA and his rotation overhaul.

-I think the low attendance is a reflection of: 1) very slow start (especially first series at home), multiple injuries (i.e. reduced expectations) and 2) the Leafs have all but locked up a playoff spot for the first time in 9 years (something like that). This has almost been a perfect storm of injuries, competition and bad performances. Normally, the regular season for hockey is over by this point, IIRC. And for the last 8 years, the Leafs have obliged by not competing with the Jays for entertainment dollars. I have a feeling that if a 1st round Leafs-Habs matchup materializes (right now, it's looking like the most likely matchup), I'll bet you see another 20-30% drop in attendance while that series lasts. If the Leafs advance, the Jays are in deep trouble for attendance. Plus, the Jays haven't jumped out to a quick start, something that has helped attendance a few times in the past few years.

-The Jays so far aren't "a bit below expectations", they are GREATLY below expectations at this point. This isn't a case of, if 2 batters can raise their OPS by 50-75 points, and 2 starters can drop 0.5 off their ERA, they'll be fine. We're talking 4-5 batters need to add 150-200 points of OPS. As well, 3 starters need to drop 2.x to 3.x off their ERA and the other two need to drop 0.5-1.0 off their ERA.

-If they Jays play at this level for another month (30 games), they'll be 18-27. At that point, it may be too late for this year. They'd have to go 77-40 to get to 95 wins.

I know I'm being overly dramatic, and yes, there's lots of reason to be optimistic and hope they can turn it around. But so far, there has been very little evidence that they are even close to turning it around. If I were Gibby, I would stay far, FAR away from any ships, especially those branded "can't be sunk", because so far, they seem to always want to sink when I'm around.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#270569) #

Firing Gibbons this June would be a huge black mark against AA. Completely different level than letting Casper Wells go, for example.

Let's hope it never comes to this at all Paul, but if Alex lets Gibbons go it'll be because the team record is very poor and he'll be criticized for having hired Gibbons in the first place, not for letting him go. At that point whether he lets him go or not, he'll still be criticized for having hired him, so letting him go won't affect that criticism much. Casper Wells? Is that the guy off waivers that couldn't stick with the Mariners? That's a "black mark" of any variant?

China fan - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#270571) #

The Jays are 3 games out of a wild card position, despite suffering injuries to 3 key players already this season. It's too early to panic.

They are currently batting .185 with runners in scoring position. That's unsustainable, and it will change dramatically over the course of the season.

In a sample size of 15 games, too many factors are subject to random variables, and the luck factors haven't had any chance to even out yet. It's too early to draw any conclusions about this team.

Magpie - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#270572) #

There is no chance whatsoever John Gibbons gets fired by June 20th.

Of course not. What happened in 2008 was One of Those Things, and I don't believe it was Gibbons' fault. Which doesn't change the fact that he absolutely had to go. His team expected itself to be much better than they were, they didn't understand what had gone wrong, and they were dead men walking around waiting for the manager to walk the plank on their behalf.

Gaston did fix a couple of specific things - they stopped hitting into a million DPs and throwing away baserunners in general, which did wonders for the offense (along with getting Adam Lind - yes! into the lineup). But really it was just the act of replacing the manager that was required. That's how it goes. No one said this would be fair.

eudaimon - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#270573) #

The only way Gibbons gets fired is if he and Bautista have a fist fight. Even then they'd probably be cool after. This isn't 2008 - that was Gibbons 4th (not including a bit of 2004) year on the job. Around the time when GMs get a bit antsy, especially ones like JP that lave declining job security.

Paul D - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#270575) #

CBC, I think we're actually in agreement here.

Magpie - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#270576) #

Of course, if Gibbons gets into a fistfight with Jose Bautista... he's toast. Managers will get canned during or after their first season if the team a) is an enormous disappointment, which is accompanied by b) very visible conflicts with key players.

Magpie - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#270577) #

The only way Gibbons gets fired is if he and Bautista have a fist fight.

Beat me to it! Great minds, etc...

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#270579) #

Bonifacio for Rasmus in today's starting lineup. Rajai Davis again in RF. It aint much of a defensive outfield. Sigh. Arencibia DHing with Blanco catching. It is fortuitous when an opponent starts a left-hander against Dickey.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#270580) #

The club originally said that it was back spasms that were keeping Bautista out, and then it was an ear infection. It's one very nasty ear infection, or else the back problem has turned out to be a little more serious than previously suggested.

China fan - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#270581) #

That's not quite correct, Mike. The Jays originally mentioned two problems -- an ear infection and back spasms -- but since then they've consistently said that the main problem is the back spasms.

Gibbons today said Bautista won't be placed on the DL because he's close to returning.

China fan - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#270582) #

One of the key elements in the 2013 plan for the Blue Jays was a middle infield of Reyes and Izturis, flanked by Lawrie. Those three players, working in unison in the infield, would be a great combination of strong defence plus the excellent offense from Reyes and Lawrie.

If we are lucky, we might see that infield for the first time in late July.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#270583) #

Nonetheless, the current arrangement ought to give them the traditional infield arrangement- solid defence and some offensive contributions from the middle infielders and offence from the corner infielders. Lawrie's defensive abilities at third base are outstanding feature...The loss of Reyes should cost them about 1 game over 1/2 a season.

John Northey - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#270586) #

Actually, Reyes is a 3-5 WAR player in his career for a full season with most projection systems having him at 4 for this year. Kawasaki is pretty much a replacement level player, as anyone could've had him for the ML minimum this spring. So the cost is 1.5-2.5 wins over 1/2 a season if everyone plays at the level expected of them.

Now, can a team win with a shortstop like Kawasaki playing everyday? Yup. Many have. I keep thinking Alfredo Griffin when looking at Kawasaki just because neither could hit much and both were known for their glove and enthusiasm. Griffin was probably the worse player actually as his rookie season he was 2.5 bWAR and career he was 2.9 bWAR. In 1988 he was the main shortstop for the Dodgers when they won it all with a 0.3 bWAR. In 92/93 he was a backup on the Jays WS teams and had a net of -0.1 bWAR over those seasons. A 67 OPS+ lifetime with one gold glove and one weird All-Star appearance (48 OPS+...made the team only because he came to support his friend Damaso Garcia and a shortstop who was to be in the game was hurt at the last moment so since he was there they added him to the team).

I think the biggest issue is getting the rotation stable. If the big 4 can do what they were expected to do then the club will have some nice winning streaks. If not... well... then 2013 will not be as fun as we hoped.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 18 2013 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#270588) #

I don't agree with the notion that Kawasaki is a replacement level player. He was freely available, but he's a 1-2 WAR player (as John McDonald was). Reyes is a 4 WAR player.

The knuckler's dancing tonight.. We might see our first CG.

Anders - Friday, April 19 2013 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#270607) #

Following up on a point raised above, anyone have any thoughts on why attendance has been fairly disappointing to date (just 15k announced as in the stands last night)? That to me is more likely to be raising red flags with the suits at Rogers than the slow start, given the length of the season (although it's now roughly 9% complete). I guess all the off-season hype notwithstanding, the casual fans are still looking for proof that this team can contend before forking over for tickets.

The Jays are averaging 29,086 fans a game after 10 games, against Cleveland, Boston and Chicago, one of which was a weekend series.
In 2012 after 9 games (Boston, Baltimore, Tampa, one weekend series) they were at 24,538.
In 2011 in 11 games against Minny, Oakland, New York (2 games) and Tampa (2 weekends) they were at 23,978.

Weekday series in April are always terrible draws, so I'm not surprised at how things have gone. I think the club has to be reasonably pleased with things so far - they've had 4 games over 40k, which took them until June 2nd to do last year. This weekend series against the Yankees is going to be a near sellout also. I wouldn't worry.

Game Thread - 4/17 vs. Chicago White Sox | 60 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.