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On an afternoon in which Blue Jays’ pitching was anything but Major League, Jays’ fans can take solace in the efforts of two pitching prospects. Aaron Sanchez no-hit an impressive Tampa Yankees line-up through five innings down in Dunedin, while Deck McGuire turned in a two hit (one earned run) effort further north in Binghamton.


Tampa 2 Dunedin 3 (11 Innings)

For Sanchez, this was the type of performance prospect-watchers have come to expect. Sanchez pitched cleanly through four, working around a third inning error by third baseman Andy Burns. He then ran into trouble in his fifth and final inning, walking two before finishing the inning with a groundball out and strike out. He finished the night with three strikeouts and an impressive 9-1 groundball-flyball rate. Fox Sports’ prospect guy Kiley McDaniel was at the game and had Sanchez at 95-97mph, touching 98mph.

The Jays won on a “ridiculous play” in extra innings according to Dunedin Blue Jays announcer. A two-out Marcus Knecht groundball to shortstop scored Nick Baligod from second, where the Yankee shortstop attempted to force-out Gabe Jacobo at second base. Here is where confusion ensued. Yankees second basemen Angelo Gumbs thinking there was only one out in the inning straddled the bag (as second basemen do when turning the double-play), and as a result the umpire ruled Jacobo safe. Gumbs was then a tad tardy in his through to first to retire a hustling Knecht, while Baligod scooted around from second to score the winning run. Jays win!

Evan Crawford made his first appearance this season and had a rough outing. Crawford walked two, gave up two hits, and yield two runs. The announcers had nothing but good things to say about Peter Mooney’s defense, and Marcus Knecht had two hits and two RBI’s, including the aforementioned game-winning RBI, and is now hitting .321 on the year. Readers should be cautioned that Knecht struck out three times on the night, and has seven strikeouts to one walk through the first five games of the season.

New Hampshire 3 Binghamton 1

For Deck McGuire the hope will be he can build upon tonight’s success and start to re-establish his prospect status. Tonight was one of those nights—few for McGuire in his professional career—in which it was quite clear why he was drafted so high. He was clinical and methodical. McGuire needed only 80 pitches (55 for strikes) to work seven innings. He threw first pitch strikes to 17 of the 24 batters he faced, and finished the night with a 7-5 groundball-flyball ratio to go along with five strikeouts and a walk.

Joining McGuire in the category of weather doesn’t matter much to me—it was 6 degrees Celsius at first pitch—Kevin Pillar doubled and clubbed his first homerun of the year and has continued to hit so far at New Hampshire. Good for him and good for the Blue Jays as they sorely lack position player prospects at the upper levels. Adam Loewen also went deep and off-season acquisition Clint Robinson went 2-4 and is hitting .391 so far.

Both Buffalo and Lansing were postponed. Lansing was scheduled to play their annual Crosstown Showdown with Michigan State and that game has been rescheduled for May 1. That game is usually carried by the Big Ten network, so fans with super cable packages might want to tune in.

Thanks for reading!

Boxscores
New York Double | 24 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
sam - Thursday, April 11 2013 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#270167) #
Not to steal too much of the airwaves, but I'd like to thank the Batter's Box crew for welcoming me aboard. I'll have a draft preview or two up soon on the site, and I'm going to mine some of my baseball contacts to get some interviews with former farmhands who can hopefully speak to what it's like being a minor leaguer and some of the development changes that have gone on since A.A. has ruled the roost.

I do apologize for writing errors and HTML errors.
China fan - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 06:02 AM EDT (#270169) #
Welcome aboard, Sam. Your debut today was an excellent one. I think all of us especially appreciate the analysis that goes beyond the box-scores. It can be difficult for most of us to get this analysis elsewhere.

Evan Crawford is on an injury rehab, no? So there's probably not much to be read into his first Dunedin game.

The strong game by McGuire is very encouraging. He's still only 23 (turning 24 in June) so he has time to get it together. Some pitchers can struggle for a year or two at the AA level and still climb to the major-league all-star game -- remember Ricky Romero?
China fan - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 06:04 AM EDT (#270170) #
In two starts this season, McGuire now has 12 strikeouts and only 4 walks in 11.2 innings.
John Northey - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#270171) #
Romero had 4 years of so-so results.  ERA' s of 3.58-3.87-4.84-4.55, losing records every season but his first (1-0 that year), K rates sub-8 all years, sub 7 2 of the 4 years, and poor walk rates (5.0 and 4.1 the last 2 years).  There was nothing that indicated he was getting better or would be ready until suddenly he was up here doing well.

McGuire is in his 3rd pro season, his first two saw ERA's of 3.02 and 5.88.  K/9 of 8.9 and 6.1, BB/9 of 3.2 and 3.9.  This year will see if he can grow or stagnate.  It is his age 24 season, the same age that Romero made it to the majors.  I see McGuire as having to graduate to AAA this year and the majors at some point next year or his 'prospect' days are over and his 'AAAA' days begin.  He started older and that is a major liability.

Dewey - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#270173) #
Nicely done, Sam.  I enjoyed the reports.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#270176) #
Content and writing very much appreciated.
92-93 - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#270177) #
I've always enjoyed your comments, sam, so I look forward to reading your MiLB reports. You're off to a rousing start.
92-93 - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#270178) #
"It is his age 24 season, the same age that Romero made it to the majors. I see McGuire as having to graduate to AAA this year and the majors at some point next year or his 'prospect' days are over and his 'AAAA' days begin. He started older and that is a major liability."

At some point it'll probably make sense to call up McGuire when you need a long man/8th RP, even if he isn't faring that great in the minors. It's possible that the spectacle of MLB will bring out the best in him, and it would be in the team's best interests to find that out in low leverage innings once his prospect status has faded.
Thomas - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#270179) #
Great job, Sam. Welcome aboard.
CeeBee - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#270181) #
Thanks for taking on the challenge of writing for the box. I always enjoy your comments and the work of all the box writers.
MatO - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#270182) #
metafour - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#270183) #
Hate to derail the McGuire optimism, but he's been struggling badly because his stuff is WAY down since being drafted.  And his stuff was never "elite" in the first place.  This was Baseball Prospectus' scouting report on him from spring training this year, so unless he's magically learned to throw 91+ again, I wouldn't get too excited about anything he does.  Remember that even a junkballer at the MLB level can put together a good game every once in a while.


1st-round pick in 2010 out of Georgia Tech; big frame; high leg kick with a lot of moving parts in delivery; fastball 86-91; minimal life; gets punished when it’s left up in the zone; forced to nibble; slider 82-83; flashes tight spin with sharp; best pitch grades out as a 55; threw one messy curveball at 74; question marks about his athleticism; lacks necessary command of pitches. McGuire struggled mightily in 2012, and I’m sure 2013 will be more of the same. He is forced to nibble with his fastball because it just simply is not enough to make professionals swing and miss. Eventually he will move to the bullpen, where hopefully the fastball will tick up along with the slider and make him a solid middle reliever.


China fan - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#270185) #
Fair points, Metafour, but I must add that I'm not entirely convinced by a BP scouting report which appears to be based on observing him in a single pre-season outing. (Correct me if I'm wrong, but you said it was from spring 2013, and it seems to be assessing him on the basis of one game.)

I'm not saying that 2 regular-season games in 2013 are a sufficient sample size either. Just that I'm not entirely dismissing him yet.
John Northey - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#270186) #
McGuire should be a constant reminder to AA not to go with 'safe' picks in the draft.  The attrition rate is high for prospects and going 'safe' will still have a high risk but lower reward.  Swing for the fences and you might get fantastic rewards.  The 9th overall pick has had guys like Kevin Appier, Barry Zito, Mark Kotsay, Geoff Jenkins, and Ron Darling (20+ WAR each).  It also has had 19 out of 48 who never reached the majors (some still might) and 7 who will never get over 0 for WAR.
Beyonder - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#270187) #
Maybe, but it is not like his "unsafe" high school picks have been doing so well either (Anderson, Musgrove, Dwight Smith, Comer, Norris, Dean, Thon, Sweeney ttc.). (I know it is early for many of these guys)

Also Stroman was a safe pick, and most of us think he'll do just fine.
Mike Green - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#270188) #
A homer in your first at-bat, sam. 
85bluejay - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#270190) #
Excellent start Sam - I've always enjoyed your comments so it's no surprise - boxscores alone can be so misleading.

The fact that the Jays did not even invite the former top pick (1st pick under AA's tenure) Deck McGuire to the main camp (having done so previously) , tells me how much he's fallen in the eyes of the organisation - I've already put him in the suspects column.

Of course, high upside picks have as much a failure rate as safe picks, perhaps even more, but the rewards for hitting on a high upside pick (Trout,Harvey) can really change the fortunes of a team much more & is essential in the AL east IMO - also, high upside picks can be college(Harvey) or HS(Trout)  & although I wasn't wild about Stroman (Height thing), I think of him as an upside pick, definitely not safe. 
Beyonder - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#270192) #
High upside and safe aren't mutually exclusive of course. And Stroman was regarded by some as the best arm in the draft and a steal at the 21st pick of the draft ( or wherever it was the Jays got him). They don't get too much safer.
#2JBrumfield - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#270198) #
Sam, excellent debut but I'm afraid the Batter's Box kangaroo court will have to fine you for not selecting the three stars of the night. I'm sure you would have taken Sanchez, McGuire and Pillar 1-2-3! ;D

The Bisons were rained out again. Bisons.com says the Herd will be playing doubleheaders against the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (formerly the Yankees) at Coca-Cola Field Saturday and Sunday.
John Northey - Friday, April 12 2013 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#270202) #
Yeah, I'd think high upside would have a higher failure rate as that is what risk is all about.  Higher risk = higher reward but can also result in higher odds of getting ziltch. 

The way the draft is now is a bit more challenging as AA cannot just draft and sign everyone he wants, he has to be strategic about it.  Punting the 4-10 picks last year so he had more cash for everyone else worked nicely.  At the end it looks like he went up to all the high upside guys and told them whoever takes the cash gets it while the rest of you have offers of $99,999.99 (max before it counts against limit). 

Now, if the Jays expect to do well this year might it be worth risking losing a pick or two in 2014/2015 in order to chase all the best of the best in each round?  IE: blow the budget and go nuts for best talent knowing that next year and beyond you expect to be at the bottom of the draft rounds.  Tampa kinda did that with their international picks (as blowing as they could with their budget) last year.  I figure someone will do that with the regular picks one of these years.  Basically you'd need to have a batch of high talent guys (ones who should be top 1/2 of the first round) drop and feel you can sign them but at top 10 prices.  Sign 2 of them in addition to regular picks and losing 2 picks in 2014/2015 is well worth it as those would be lower picks and odds are lower quality as you'd have a lower budget anyways.

sam - Saturday, April 13 2013 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#270230) #
Thank you all for your words. As I told Gerry, writing for this site is a real honour. It is a high bar the site's writers/readers have set/expect, and I will do my best to try to meet the standard.
sam - Saturday, April 13 2013 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#270231) #
Apologies as well for not naming the three stars. I certainly concur with you Brumfield.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 13 2013 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#270283) #
Sam, great job. Looking forward to reading more of your MLUs.
bpoz - Sunday, April 14 2013 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#270303) #
Thanks Sam.

McGuire was AA's 1st pick ever. He was looked at 11 times if I recall correctly, by various Jay personnel. He should have success in NH as he is repeating.

$2mil signing bonus. He must have passed all the tests.
New York Double | 24 comments | Create New Account
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