Use only as directed.
This column on Jackie Robinson's base thievery is very interesting, but actually has a point relevant to the 2013 Blue Jays. The break-even point for double steals with runners on first and second and no outs or one out is about 50% or slightly higher. Just something to bear in mind if Bonifacio and Reyes are on base. Later in the season, if Gose is up and is batting 8th or 9th, you might have three burners in a row in the lineup making this a logical routine play for the club (i.e. Gose leads off, one of he or Bonifacio reaches base, Reyes singles or walks and then double steal).
My personal plea to the Blue Jays: Please stop sucking. Thank you.
I wonder if the break-even point for double steals would be a bit higher today, given that strikeout rates are way up (so you'd expect fewer sac flies and fewer singles) and thus the run value of advancing the runners with one out might be lower. The article uses the present tense when discussing break-even percentages, which is troubling. Still a really interesting point, though, and sounds like something the Jays should be doing...
As an aside, you would think that 2nd and 3rd, one out, with Cabrera and Bautista to follow would be pretty much optimal.
Any word as to when this game will start (if at all)?
From Twitter:
Gregor Chisholm þ@gregorMLB 4m
Tarp still on the field at Comerica Field and the rain is coming down. No real timeframe right now for when first pitch might happen.
Is there an easy way to find a list of all attempted double steals from 2012? Now I'm curious to see just how underused that play is...
Apparently, weather.com expects the rain to stop around 2:15. The radar map sure doesn't look promising, though.
Apparently, weather.com expects the rain to stop around 2:15. The radar map sure doesn't look promising, though.
I wonder if the break-even point for double steals would be a bit higher today, given that strikeout rates are way up (so you'd expect fewer sac flies and fewer singles) and thus the run value of advancing the runners with one out might be lower.
Further to this, the Jays are not a very "singly" team. With a man on second (rather than first, say), the offensive strategy still seems to be to swing for the fences.
It's very early, of course, for the numbers to mean a whole lot, but the Jays are last in the league in singles with 29 (AL average is 44). They are averaging 4.1 per game (AL average is 5.8). Only 54% of the Jays' hits are singles, which is lowest in the league (AL average is 65%).
Now, they're last in the league in scoring so eventually, one presumes, they'll be recording more hits of all flavours, including singles.
I think part of it is luck. The Blue Jays have the 4th worst BABIP in the league so far (.252), even though much of the team is pretty fast. Their LD% (which I associate with hits) is twelth. There's definitely some slumping batters, but I think luck has also played a bit of a role thus far.
Although, the suckiness of the starting pitching thus far has definitely been an issue as well.
I just read that we picked up Casper Wells off waivers from Seattle. Fangraphs seems to think he has good OF defense. Add that to having a bit of pop he makes good OF depth.
The Jays have apparently claimed Casper Wells - so the 8 man BP may be ending.
Is Casper Wells the ghost of Vernon Wells?
Casper 2012: 228/302/396
Vernon 2012: 230/279/403
Casper 2012: 228/302/396
Vernon 2012: 230/279/403
the Jays are not a very "singly" team
Although like Mike said above, they do put the speed burners in front of the singliest hitter on the team (Cabrera), and give pitchers a very strong incentive to let him single (Bautista). In that respect the lineup makes a lot of sense.
It'll be interesting to see where they rank in singliness when the "luck" starts to even out. I sincerely have no clue.
Although like Mike said above, they do put the speed burners in front of the singliest hitter on the team (Cabrera), and give pitchers a very strong incentive to let him single (Bautista). In that respect the lineup makes a lot of sense.
It'll be interesting to see where they rank in singliness when the "luck" starts to even out. I sincerely have no clue.
Today's game is now scheduled to start at 3:30. In theory.
Is Casper Wells the ghost of Vernon Wells?
Vernon Wells was friendly in 2003, so that must be the Vernon-ghost you are referring to, Chuck. I'll take that. It did seem that Vernon had moved on to another colder world more recently...
He would be an upgrade over Rajai Davis in the platoon DH role. Good move.
Vernon Wells was friendly in 2003, so that must be the Vernon-ghost you are referring to, Chuck. I'll take that. It did seem that Vernon had moved on to another colder world more recently...
He would be an upgrade over Rajai Davis in the platoon DH role. Good move.
Tarp coming off the field...1st pitch at 3:35 apparently. Gonna be a cold one...and they've got maybe 3-4 hours before the next system hits
Need to get a game in as quickly as possible? This looks like a job for Mark Buehrle.
He would be an upgrade over Rajai Davis in the platoon DH role.
His career OPS splits in "old" Safeco, albeit in only about a full season's worth of at-bats: 838/675. That would certainly do the trick.
Anyone catch Gregg Zaun's "old school" rant on McCown's shown yesterday? He took a shot at those who "use mathematics" and thus support platooning. He'd prefer that the starters are the starters and play every day, including Lind against lefties, and that the subs are only there to occasionally spell the starter. To the surprise of no one, McCown agreed wholeheartedly. Stephen Brunt opined that there was probably a happy medium, which I take as his polite way of more emphatically disagreeing.
Zaun is great when talking about playing the game, but less so on when it comes to macro-analysis. He sounds like every other ex-player in that regard.
Every time I hear someone arguing against using numbers for analysis it sounds to me like they are saying that you shouldn't use facts to make decisions.
Boni, E strikes again.
Brett Lawrie, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Team defense has been pretty bad thus far this year. Not helping their pitchers at all. Down 2-0, but neither run should have scored (should have gotten the DP on Fielder, error on Bon-E).
Buehrle has given up quite a few line drives in the first two innings. It would have been very hard to turn the DP in the first, as the ball wasn't hit hard and it was slowed by the wet turf and Fielder gets down to first pretty well actually.
I'm listening to this game with a paper bag over my head. This team is embarrassing.
Dear Blue Jays: please start playing good baseball. Sincerely, Eephus.
As Mike said, I don't think the the Jays "should have" gotten the double play on Fielder's grounder. He runs surprisingly well for a big slugger.
However, generally the early season defence has been another story.
"He would be an upgrade over Rajai Davis in the platoon DH role."
Really? How? The team doesn't need another low-average guy who hits occasional home runs, and isn't a speed threat. I'd absolutely play Davis over him.
Where we actually need help at the moment is our infield, which is *terrible* - Reyes doesn't get to stuff, and the guys on either side boot the ball.
Really? How? The team doesn't need another low-average guy who hits occasional home runs, and isn't a speed threat. I'd absolutely play Davis over him.
Where we actually need help at the moment is our infield, which is *terrible* - Reyes doesn't get to stuff, and the guys on either side boot the ball.
I think it would be reasonable to consider a platoon for both Lind and Rasmus. Wells could help there.
It's getting really hard to watch the Jays this year. Little leaguers probably play a "better" game on occasion.
I think that was a huge inning for the team right there. The team finally breaks through to score some non-HR runs and then manage not to let Cabrera or Fielder take those runs right back. Even if they can't rally back and win this one, at least it's a sign of life.
hmmm... perhaps the belly-aching is working. :)
We'll remember this one in September. One season from hell is enough for me.
It's odd to recall the pre-season punditry, when people thought that the Jays starting rotation would be very strong but the bullpen was questionable. In fact it's been the reverse. The bullpen looks solid, while the rotation is struggling. There's plenty of time for the starters to recover. But there's no question that the rotation is absolutely crucial to the fate of the team this year. Anthopoulos was correct to focus on fixing the rotation, but the question is whether he acquired the right guys.
Not sure I see the logic in continuing to play Bonifacio at second and Izturis at third. While I haven't watched the games when DeRosa as played there, surely he is no worse than Izturis at the hot corner. And Izturis is clearly better and more experienced at second than Bonifacio.
DeRosa doesn't appear as much of a downgrade to Boni offensively- at least at this point- and we have enough speed on the basepaths without Boni.
With the starters struggling as is, it's time to help them out defensively.
DeRosa doesn't appear as much of a downgrade to Boni offensively- at least at this point- and we have enough speed on the basepaths without Boni.
With the starters struggling as is, it's time to help them out defensively.
@LottOnBaseball: AA says Lawrie might be ready
for the NY series April 19-21 or the following series in Baltimore.
Taking batting practice now, "feel great."
Hopefully he is back for the 19th. No off days in the mean time, so 8 games scheduled to play.
Hopefully he is back for the 19th. No off days in the mean time, so 8 games scheduled to play.
In terms of career fielding stats, Izturius is .945 at third, DeRosa is .955- and no worse than .940 the last two years. This year deRosa is .856 vs .667 for Izturius. Ugh. Looks like a wash at least.
At second, Izturius is .990 and Bonificio is .955. Huge difference.
At the plate, DeRosa's OPS+ is .95 vs Bonificio's .80. He is higher again this year.
So our defense is worse, no impact at the plate, and we're screwing with Izturius' brain. Nonsensical.
At second, Izturius is .990 and Bonificio is .955. Huge difference.
At the plate, DeRosa's OPS+ is .95 vs Bonificio's .80. He is higher again this year.
So our defense is worse, no impact at the plate, and we're screwing with Izturius' brain. Nonsensical.
Huge double by JP. I'm not too sure I remember him getting such good wood on a ball that travelled so far into the zone before. He bat seems to look a little quicker this year so far, in a small sample size obviously.
Colby on pace for 70 bombs and 300 K's this year. I'll take it!
Colby on pace for 70 bombs and 300 K's this year. I'll take it!
Huge win. Tough to come back from a 6-1 deficit on the road, especially against a good team like Detroit.
In the musings dept., I wonder how long it will be before we see a lineup along these lines:
Reyes SS
Cabrera LF
Bautista RF
EE 1B/DH
Lind or newly-acquired LHB DH/1B
Lawrie 3B
Arencibia C
Izturis 2B
Gose CF
In the musings dept., I wonder how long it will be before we see a lineup along these lines:
Reyes SS
Cabrera LF
Bautista RF
EE 1B/DH
Lind or newly-acquired LHB DH/1B
Lawrie 3B
Arencibia C
Izturis 2B
Gose CF
Any come-from-behind, way behind win is a good sign. It should be the first of many now, they know how.
I thought Buehrle pitched better today, just not very lucky. Was it Delabar's fault or Arrencibia's?
Casper Wells is a good pickup, hits LHP well
I thought Buehrle pitched better today, just not very lucky. Was it Delabar's fault or Arrencibia's?
Casper Wells is a good pickup, hits LHP well
"Anyone catch Gregg Zaun's "old school" rant on McCown's shown yesterday? He took a shot at those who "use mathematics" and thus support platooning. He'd prefer that the starters are the starters and play every day, including Lind against lefties, and that the subs are only there to occasionally spell the starter. To the surprise of no one, McCown agreed wholeheartedly."
That rant by Zaun was hilarious. It's a shame he didn't have every aspect of baseball figured out when he was actually playing the game, when he was a scrub for most of his career. I suspect his annoyance with PH and platoons stems from his days having to share playing time with Barajas and Molina, even though Toronto gave Zaun more playing time than he had ever really experienced and revitalized his career.
That rant by Zaun was hilarious. It's a shame he didn't have every aspect of baseball figured out when he was actually playing the game, when he was a scrub for most of his career. I suspect his annoyance with PH and platoons stems from his days having to share playing time with Barajas and Molina, even though Toronto gave Zaun more playing time than he had ever really experienced and revitalized his career.