Mediate, alleviate, try not to hate!
Tigers off to a 500 start. 1 game back of Chicago in the central. Jays now 2-4 and in last place in the AL East, but just 2 1/2 out of first, 1/2 a game out of second.
FYI: furthest out of first place is Miami at 5 games behind Atlanta (1-6 vs 6-1).
A Preview of todays game via B-R via the link - shows Sanchez going for the Tigers (5 shutout innings his first game this year). Another Miami product that was discarded, just a bit quicker than the guys the Jays got (dumped mid-season last year). In his last 5 vs the Jays Sanchez has a 6.75 ERA vs the Jays so lets hope that continues, although his last start (8-22) he went 6 2/3 allowing just 2 runs after allowing 11 his 2 starts vs the Jays before that.
Morrow has a 5.79 ERA vs the Tigers his last 5 vs them but hasn't faced them since 2011. Detroit has won the last 4 games the two have faced each other but all-time the Jays lead 208-179
FYI: furthest out of first place is Miami at 5 games behind Atlanta (1-6 vs 6-1).
A Preview of todays game via B-R via the link - shows Sanchez going for the Tigers (5 shutout innings his first game this year). Another Miami product that was discarded, just a bit quicker than the guys the Jays got (dumped mid-season last year). In his last 5 vs the Jays Sanchez has a 6.75 ERA vs the Jays so lets hope that continues, although his last start (8-22) he went 6 2/3 allowing just 2 runs after allowing 11 his 2 starts vs the Jays before that.
Morrow has a 5.79 ERA vs the Tigers his last 5 vs them but hasn't faced them since 2011. Detroit has won the last 4 games the two have faced each other but all-time the Jays lead 208-179
Weather looks really rough for this series, but with only one trip to Detroit they basically have to play.
Toronto misses Verlander, which for this Team is a good thing. This previews: http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_macarthur/?id=420214 . Sanchez -vs- Morrow should be a win for us if the Team can hit enough. Porcello -vs- Buehrle should be a win for us. Detroit has been trying to shop Porcello all offseason and I'm sorry, but he's not that good. Fister -vs- Johnson is a win. Fister (late 20's) goes from a mediore Starter in a pitcher's park (Seattle) to a mid-rotation quality Starter in a more hitter-fieldly park (Detroit). I'm sorry but how do we loss any games here? (If we don't hit).
Well, according to Rotoworld we have Bautista back tonight - a big woohoo! As the DH, thus Lind to the bench, double woohoo!
Btw, Lind so far? -33 OPS+ ... yes, negative. 063/167/063 gets you that.
Others with sub-50 OPS+: Encarnacion 21, Blanco 38, Cabrera 40, Bonifacio 47 (0-9 BB-SO ratio).
Over 200 OPS+: JPA 226 and Reyes 218 with Bautista at 191.
The team overall? 97 but just 13th out of 15 in runs scored (slg heavy for OPS).
Btw, who thought Lind would still be 2nd in stolen bases for the Jays with 1 at this point? Only Reyes has tried for a stolen base so far other than Lind (made it both times). Go figure.
Btw, Lind so far? -33 OPS+ ... yes, negative. 063/167/063 gets you that.
Others with sub-50 OPS+: Encarnacion 21, Blanco 38, Cabrera 40, Bonifacio 47 (0-9 BB-SO ratio).
Over 200 OPS+: JPA 226 and Reyes 218 with Bautista at 191.
The team overall? 97 but just 13th out of 15 in runs scored (slg heavy for OPS).
Btw, who thought Lind would still be 2nd in stolen bases for the Jays with 1 at this point? Only Reyes has tried for a stolen base so far other than Lind (made it both times). Go figure.
This is looking like a one game series, at most.
There has been more than one occasion where we've had speed on first with a lead and didn't even try attempting a steal. I expect that to start to change pretty quickly, because the team has the speed to force their opponent into mistakes.
Bautista at DH with Lind on the bench probably means Gibbons doesn't want to use Encarnacion at 3B unless he absolutely has to.
Bautista at DH with Lind on the bench probably means Gibbons doesn't want to use Encarnacion at 3B unless he absolutely has to.
V-Mart is out of today's lineup with a cut on his thumb. He's hit Morrow and Buehrle well (no track record against Johnson), so it wouldn't be the worst thing for the Jays if he needed a couple of days to recover.
EE and JB at 3B is something that I only see happening in extra innings in an absolute 'we are out of other options' situation. Much like the old George Bell at 3B or 2B that Bobby Cox did, vs the bizarre moves of Jimy Williams (Cecil Fielder at 3B/2B).
Mid-week daytime Baseball in April, amazing, but logical. Play it before the weather gets cold. For all those in the WBC that didn't go on the D.L., like Lawrie, might have nagging but playable hurts. Toronto's problem is they haven't played enough to know what to expect from the person that follows them in the lineup. Something or other about needing to feel it in the bones? I'm happy with the Bullpen, as any questions that I had, have been answered.
As Lawrie started http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/injuries/ doing ("Threw from 120 feet, took swings off tee and during soft toss, fielded grounders, ran April 7.") baseball activities again, the earliest he could be back is in 10 days, the 17th (at home to Chicago); in two weeks, the 21st (at home to NYY); in three weeks, the 28th (at Yankee Stadium).
What is it about the pitch tracker vs. Umpire calls this year? There have been LOTS of calls that have been just terrible...and not just in Jay's games. (See the final out of the Tampa/Texas game last night).
Is it my imagination? Has there been an more bad calls...IN xcess of what we say last year?
(Gah. Please...don't sufficate on your own hate.. that might be directed towards me and my inability to proof read my own comments...)
I've been wondering if the sportsnet tracker is just way off on the top and bottom edges - the bottom of the displayed zone in particular hasn't been called much at all, and the hitter and ump haven't even been really considering it (in the games I saw). It's early, they might need to get the kinks out still. The vertical edges have been the usual mix of random balls and strikes. Umpire judgement runs up against human limits here. Study after study shows the called strike zone is a different shape (more oval, sloped toward outside regions) than the rectangle called for in the rules. If players essentialy selected for their ability to judge the zone as hitters can't do it perfectly, it's obviously going to be impossible for umpires to do it.
I don't think baseball can live with visual displays of 4-5 blown calls an inning forever. Put the 4th ump in the replay booth for all other plays and let the tracking systems call it already....
That wasn't pretty. Sometimes I wonder whether Arencibia becomes predictable in his pitch calling (I think Zaun commented on this in spring training after Romero threw four or five changeups in a row before giving up a double to the pitcher). In the fourth, Morrow attempted to throw one pitch after the other to the same location (low and away), with a lot of the pitches lacking movement. Cabrera got ahead and eventually drove one out to right for a three-run HR.
There is no easy solution in that situation, but Morrow could have conceded the PA by attempting to get Cabrera to chase, with Gibbons bringing in Cecil to face Fielder with the bases loaded if Cabrera walked. Miguel is one of the best hitters in the game, and Morrow clearly did not have it today. The HR may prove to be the decisive blow in the game.
There is no easy solution in that situation, but Morrow could have conceded the PA by attempting to get Cabrera to chase, with Gibbons bringing in Cecil to face Fielder with the bases loaded if Cabrera walked. Miguel is one of the best hitters in the game, and Morrow clearly did not have it today. The HR may prove to be the decisive blow in the game.
A similar reason to replace the human umps with pitch-fx is that it will give you something very close to a black-and-white strike zone. The human umpire strike zone is currently defined by a probability distribution. "Fastball at the knees 2 inches off the outside corner" is currently neither a strike nor a ball - it's a strike with probability p and ball with probability 1-p, or, as a Human Element apologist might say, "with two strikes that's just too close to take." The gray area. There's a very easy way to shrink it...
Of course there will always be a small amount of measurement error, but with robot umps there will be much less of it, and it won't be capricious at all.
Of course there will always be a small amount of measurement error, but with robot umps there will be much less of it, and it won't be capricious at all.
After getting the first 2 outs of the 4th, Morrow induced a weak grounder to SS that Reyes couldn't be bothered to dive for, a ball that most SSs get to with ordinary effort. The inning could've and should've looked very different.
Cecil was just removed after 16 pitches, so apparently Gibbons doesn't want him sitting down and getting back up again more than once.
Cecil was just removed after 16 pitches, so apparently Gibbons doesn't want him sitting down and getting back up again more than once.
"Fastball at the knees 2 inches off the outside corner" is currently neither a strike nor a ball
Schrodinger's strike zone.
92-93, my take on that play is somewhat different. The ball wasn't hit especially hard, but it was right up the middle, fairly far from where Reyes was positioned. Reyes got near the ball, but only after ranging far a long way to his left en route to center field. Had he dove, he might have snared the ball but he would have had little chance of throwing out the runner (Jackson).
In my view, the main problem is that after getting two quick outs, Morrow proceeded to get ahead of both Jackson and Hunter but continued to throw mediocre pitches over the plate and couldn't put either hitter away. He and Arencibia then took a rather predictable "hope for the best" approach after falling behind Cabrera -- as in, let's give him an outside pitch and hope he doesn't do too much damage. Cabrera read the situation perfectly and put a great opposite-field swing on the pitch.
In my view, the main problem is that after getting two quick outs, Morrow proceeded to get ahead of both Jackson and Hunter but continued to throw mediocre pitches over the plate and couldn't put either hitter away. He and Arencibia then took a rather predictable "hope for the best" approach after falling behind Cabrera -- as in, let's give him an outside pitch and hope he doesn't do too much damage. Cabrera read the situation perfectly and put a great opposite-field swing on the pitch.
Yep ^^^^. It was fairly slow up the middle. Austin Jackson beats that out for an infield hit easily if Reyes fields it.
The real issue with that inning was Morrow giving up the hit to Hunter on a 0-2 pitch with a flat breaking ball.
The real issue with that inning was Morrow giving up the hit to Hunter on a 0-2 pitch with a flat breaking ball.
Hopefully when Lawrie returns, Reyes will position himself closer to the middle of the diamond and won't have to dive...
I was impressed that Gibbons allowed Rogers to stay in the game to pitch out of that jam. It meant that Rogers threw 33 pitches in two innings. But as Thomas pointed out in the other thread, Rogers has a track record of being able to handle two-inning stints. Maybe he does emerge as the two-inning guy when the bullpen reverts to 7 relievers.
No worries, the Jays have just signed Miguel Batista. Maybe Edgar Gonzalez is done, he did give up a hit today.
Batista was signed to a minor league deal.
For those who sometimes catch a televised game, does anyone have any alternatives to listening to Martinez and Tabler? Nice guys, apparently, but I find them unlistenable.
I liked Ashby, but he gone.
I liked Ashby, but he gone.
For those who were panning Boston's off-season moves, the Red Sox are now 5-2 with a +19 run differential (the Jays are -16). They're doing it without Ortiz and Drew, both of whom are on their way back. And they have some strong talent in the minors on the way.
Obviously it's early, but whew - the Jays have been horrible, and Boston is playing stellar baseball.
Obviously it's early, but whew - the Jays have been horrible, and Boston is playing stellar baseball.
I wouldn't put much stock in run differential when one game accounts for +13 for the Sox and -13 for the Jays. That being said, I do agree that the Sox look good and I'm a bit sad what the Jays gave away to get a bunch of older guys on their team. We really need Dickey to perform.
Run differential is something I wouldn't even be considering right now. So early in it's such a volatile stat that can take huge swings over just a few games. I remember tracking it in April last year and it nearly drove me nuts trying to draw any conclusions from it.
A rule of thumb people often use is not to pay much attention to the standings till June. Run differential also needs many weeks to settle. You can only change by +1 or -1 a day in the win loss differential, but have much bigger swings in the RD.
A rule of thumb people often use is not to pay much attention to the standings till June. Run differential also needs many weeks to settle. You can only change by +1 or -1 a day in the win loss differential, but have much bigger swings in the RD.
This start by the Team should not be totally unexpected. The WBC sidelined Brett Lawrie. They are talking about early May for him! Edwin Encarnacion, hitting-wise, is at least one or two weeks behind where he should be due to his Injury/non-injury thingee experienced in the WBC. I think the players noticed. Adam Lind, usually starting better than this, tried too hard. I don't know how long it will take him to get right. Jose Bautista tried to be everything they needed and hurt himself. As of Tuesday, it showed he's not right just yet.
Games 1 and 2 are basically poor offense (total 9 hits), with anything else being minor. This set the tone for everything else that happened. Game 3 was Buehrle not being ready or just not being any good, I'm not sure which. Game 4 was a pitching issue more than anything else. Game 5 was special. The last three games the offense was good to almost really good. Then came game 6, nobody except Cecil pitched. Down 5-0 in the 1st with no one out is an insurmountable hole. Those will happen, just not often. Game 7 was disappointing. Morrow couldn't pitch well enough and Oliver was disappointing too.
Toronto had their chances. It's not a lot of fun right now, but it will get better. Considering DeRosa, Bonifacio are the Bench with Izturis as 2B, something is missing, more than just Lawrie. Do we need a regular 2B better than what we have? Who made the mistake with Aaron Hill?
I know he's a Yank, but am I the only one pulling for Vernon?
I know he's a Yank, but am I the only one pulling for Vernon?
I want to pull for Vernon, but am I the only one not because he's a Yank?
I want to pull for Vernon, but am I the only one not because he's a Yank?
Am I the only one shocked that a healthy 31 year old K-Rod is still a free agent? I wonder how he feels that 30 year old Edgar Gonzalez is pitching for a World Series contender while he's sitting at home.
There's still a lot of other fairly big names that are still free agents: Bobby Abreu, Jason Bartlett, Rod Barajas, Dallas Braden, Coco Cordero, Juan Cruz, Johnny Damon, Livian Hernandez, Orlando Hudson, Aubrey Huff, Bobby Jenks, Carlos Lee, Jamie Moyer, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Scott Rolen, Freddy Sanchez, Grady Sizemore, Jim Thome, Ryan Theriot, Kip Wells, Brian Wilson, and Carlos Zambrano.
What team wins more games, the Astros or this group of veterans?
There's still a lot of other fairly big names that are still free agents: Bobby Abreu, Jason Bartlett, Rod Barajas, Dallas Braden, Coco Cordero, Juan Cruz, Johnny Damon, Livian Hernandez, Orlando Hudson, Aubrey Huff, Bobby Jenks, Carlos Lee, Jamie Moyer, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Scott Rolen, Freddy Sanchez, Grady Sizemore, Jim Thome, Ryan Theriot, Kip Wells, Brian Wilson, and Carlos Zambrano.
What team wins more games, the Astros or this group of veterans?
I too can't help but like Vernon, even though he said he was always a Yankee fan and I really want to dislike him. I'm fine with his success as long as the Yankees lose and if it doesn't come against the Jays. I do think he's easy to pitch to and defend, though. If I were the manager I'd have an extreme shift on Vernon because he loves the 5-6 hole, and you can still throw him breaking balls on the outer half despite the shift and he'll roll over them instead of sitting back and driving them the other way.
AA said on PTS that April 22nd was the latest Lawrie should be back, though Howarth & Morris had made it seem longer earlier in the day while calling the game. I don't see what the value is in stringing the fans along so I hope that he's back, because this team's defense desperately needs him.
Bautista stung the ball today and I can't wait till he gets going.
And call me a homer, but I'd MUCH rather watch Miguel Batista in the mop up role than Edgar Gonzalez. Bring him up the moment he's ready.
AA said on PTS that April 22nd was the latest Lawrie should be back, though Howarth & Morris had made it seem longer earlier in the day while calling the game. I don't see what the value is in stringing the fans along so I hope that he's back, because this team's defense desperately needs him.
Bautista stung the ball today and I can't wait till he gets going.
And call me a homer, but I'd MUCH rather watch Miguel Batista in the mop up role than Edgar Gonzalez. Bring him up the moment he's ready.
I know he's a Yank, but am I the only one pulling for Vernon?
I want to pull for Vernon, but am I the only one not because he's a Yank?
Personally I hope he's their MVP this year, but not because he plays especially well.
I want to pull for Vernon, but am I the only one not because he's a Yank?
Personally I hope he's their MVP this year, but not because he plays especially well.
While we're celebrating ex-Jays, how about a moment of silence for Brett Wallace, who, three ABs into today's Astros demolition of Seattle, has a 76.2% strikeout rate.
This is not a misprint. He has in fact struck out in 16 of 21 plate appearances.
This is not a misprint. He has in fact struck out in 16 of 21 plate appearances.
WALLACE UPDATE: Golden sombrero. Now at 17 strikeouts in 22 PA.
And people say Gose has strikeout issues.
And people say Gose has strikeout issues.
IIRC K-Rod had massive demands for salary and his ego hasn't figured out no one will give in. If Janssen and Santos were still hurting then I'd have considered him but he 'needs' to be a closer so I'd see no value in K-Rod here at this time. He probably still thinks he is worth $8+ million to someone.
I thought I read somewhere Barajas retired, Moyer is happy at home but still might try another comeback, Rolen had offers but wasn't feeling up to another year.
Zambrano I'm surprised no one has given a shot to, although he might be one who said '$x or I retire'. Hudson wasn't getting offers (35 year old second basemen who are coming off 57 OPS+ seasons tend to be forgotten). Damon has been begging but no one is biting anymore.
I think a big ender of careers is guys who don't figure out they are just ML minimum guys at this point unless they rebuild value. Always funny how non-HOF'ers will get like that, but HOF'ers like Rickey Henderson hang on for the minimum for years just because they love to play.
I thought I read somewhere Barajas retired, Moyer is happy at home but still might try another comeback, Rolen had offers but wasn't feeling up to another year.
Zambrano I'm surprised no one has given a shot to, although he might be one who said '$x or I retire'. Hudson wasn't getting offers (35 year old second basemen who are coming off 57 OPS+ seasons tend to be forgotten). Damon has been begging but no one is biting anymore.
I think a big ender of careers is guys who don't figure out they are just ML minimum guys at this point unless they rebuild value. Always funny how non-HOF'ers will get like that, but HOF'ers like Rickey Henderson hang on for the minimum for years just because they love to play.
but HOF'ers like Rickey Henderson hang on for the minimum for years just because they love to play.
Rickey Henderson was quite the exception, even among those who love to play.