Discuss!
Jose Bautista has just dug himself into a LOT deeper trouble with the umpires. His comment to the media today on his well-publicized episode of snark in last night's game is as follows:
“Sometimes I have trouble more than others dealing with my production being affected by somebody else’s mediocrity."
I think this quote is going to be clipped out and underlined in a few umpire locker rooms this season.... They won't be pleased to be informed that the entire problem is their "mediocrity" rather than Bautista's ego....
“Sometimes I have trouble more than others dealing with my production being affected by somebody else’s mediocrity."
I think this quote is going to be clipped out and underlined in a few umpire locker rooms this season.... They won't be pleased to be informed that the entire problem is their "mediocrity" rather than Bautista's ego....
I don't like the fascination the Sportsnet director has with the camera behind the plate. Use it occasionally, fine. But the Director has fallen in love with it.
Twice in the bottom of the first they were using the camera angle behind the plate when the Jays hitter grounded out and they used the same camera to follow the batter, the second baseman and the first baseman. It's like a spring training game.
Twice in the bottom of the first they were using the camera angle behind the plate when the Jays hitter grounded out and they used the same camera to follow the batter, the second baseman and the first baseman. It's like a spring training game.
If our how many bombs thread asked who would hit the first HR, I don't think many would have picked Izturis.
the camera behind the plate. Use it occasionally, fine.
I'm absolutely in favour of much more mixing it up. For at least the last two decades, baseball broadcasts have been absolutely wedded to the centre field camera, almost to the exclusion of everything else. There are obviously excellent reasons for this - in particular, you get a fine view of the pitcher and catcher without the catcher and umpire getting in the way, something that can only be avoided by raising the camera well above field level. But the CF camera brings its own inherent distortions to the game, in particular the foreshortening of the distance between the pitcher and the batter. I'm always happy to see the side cameras from behind first and third base. It's good for the viewer to be reminded that the action happens on a large playing field.
I'm absolutely in favour of much more mixing it up. For at least the last two decades, baseball broadcasts have been absolutely wedded to the centre field camera, almost to the exclusion of everything else. There are obviously excellent reasons for this - in particular, you get a fine view of the pitcher and catcher without the catcher and umpire getting in the way, something that can only be avoided by raising the camera well above field level. But the CF camera brings its own inherent distortions to the game, in particular the foreshortening of the distance between the pitcher and the batter. I'm always happy to see the side cameras from behind first and third base. It's good for the viewer to be reminded that the action happens on a large playing field.
Hmmm. On the one hand, Roy Halladay is down 3-0 after two innings. On the other hand, all 6 outs - hang on, now it's 7 - have come via strikeout.
I'm with Gerry on this. I don't really watch baseball on TV and prefer radio but if I do I hate the camera behind the catcher. Sorry Magpie, your point about it being compressed from centre field is exactly right but seeing the the catcher stick his mitt out and catch the ball doesn't help that one bit. YOu just don't see enough from that vantage point.
Someone really needs to sit Bautista down and show him every pitch of tonight's game (or any game with the pitch tracker displayed)...umpires miss several ball/strike calls virtually every inning. Not very many players make any fuss about the missed calls. Stop being a whiny @ss about it, Jose. Most of the missed calls are consistent and predictable (outside corner is the most common in favour of the pitcher, the bottom and top edge of the zone generally favour the hitter), and they happen constantly.
Morrow looks great, and would get to pitch longer except for 3-4 seeing-eye hits. Hopefully can make it through 6.
I'm getting rid of cable soon...I'll miss the games on TV, but I'm tired of Martinez and Tabler already.
Morrow looks great, and would get to pitch longer except for 3-4 seeing-eye hits. Hopefully can make it through 6.
I'm getting rid of cable soon...I'll miss the games on TV, but I'm tired of Martinez and Tabler already.
If our how many bombs thread asked who would hit the first HR, I don't think many would have picked Izturis.
I hope he's not the only offence. Granted Indian pitching has been pretty good so far, but the offence looks tentative. And Colby...yikes the guy looks like a rookie at the show for the first time. Time for these guys to wake up.
I hope he's not the only offence. Granted Indian pitching has been pretty good so far, but the offence looks tentative. And Colby...yikes the guy looks like a rookie at the show for the first time. Time for these guys to wake up.
I wonder if GameDay is right about the strike zone tonight - seems the ump has a very weird changing one. Morrow has had pitches right near the center of the plate that were called balls - I mean, these aren't even close to missing the zone. If that is true then this ump needs to be taken in for remedial strike zone training. Plus the Jay hitters are swinging at anything close which suggests they aren't paying attention or were told 'whine so much we'll call all against you and none against your opponents'.
Gorgeous double play started by Morrow there on the comebacker. As a pitcher your first instinct can be to get rid of the ball as quickly as you can on a play like that, but Brandon made sure he set his feet first so he could fire a bullet to second and get at least one out. Great play.
If that is true then this ump needs to be taken in for remedial strike zone training.
GameDay has always only ever loosely approximated reality. Take their artwork with a huge grain of salt.
The behind the plate camera is definitely sticking around this year - the new all blue backdrop in centre is being used to put virtual ads on the TV broadcast, so there must be an agreed upon number of shots from that angle, or no one would use it. I assume it's a computer generated ad, as the giant Orange Julius sign on TV wouldn't make much of a backdrop for hitters.
What happened on that play in the 8th? I missed it - 3rd to fist DP attempt with a wild throw?
What happened on that play in the 8th? I missed it - 3rd to fist DP attempt with a wild throw?
Here's where having a three man bench is really useless. You could pinch run Rajai David here for DeRosa, and at the very least put some pressure on the Cleveland pitcher, at best put the winning run into scoring position with less than two outs.. A bigger bench would also mean we have st least more than three guys who can play 3B or 2B. Oh wells.
I wouldn't say that the 3-man bench is completely "useless" when it allows an extra reliever at a time when the bullpen is being asked to pitch 8 innings in 2 days. Jeffress might have actually been a better choice for the 11th inning, rather than asking Santos to pitch back-to-back games, especially given Santos's injury this spring. (He also had the flu a couple days ago, as I recall.)
No idea why Santos was throwing high heat to Reynolds after getting ahead of him (I think the count was 1-2).
Jays playing just well enough to lose right now. Mostly solid pitching and some nice defence, but poor execution on a few key plays cost them. With Lawrie in the lineup, the team probably wins this one.
Jays playing just well enough to lose right now. Mostly solid pitching and some nice defence, but poor execution on a few key plays cost them. With Lawrie in the lineup, the team probably wins this one.
A further thought on bullpen usage: if Jeffress had been deployed instead of Santos or Loup yesterday, when the Jays were trailing, Gibbons might have had better options (and better-rested options) in the 11th inning today.
As long as the Jays are keeping 8 relievers for a couple weeks, the potential benefit vanishes if they are unwilling to use the 8th reliever.
As long as the Jays are keeping 8 relievers for a couple weeks, the potential benefit vanishes if they are unwilling to use the 8th reliever.
Going to call BS on you greenfrog here. How does the team "win this one" with Lawrie in lineup? Does he hit two homeruns instead of the one his replacement hit tonight? For a player in Lawrie who plagued the Blue Jays with failure to execute and poor judgement in tight ballgames, how does he improve the team on a night like tonight? Does he make that play across the diamond that allows the first run to score. I don't know, he certainly made some of them last year, but others he certainly did not.
In Toronto's first two games, 20 innings, they have a grand total of 9 hits, 8 walks, 18 strikeouts, no errors and hit into 4 DPs. That's trying too hard for sure, just being average should have better results. Defense made it harder to win, but poor offense made it impossible to win. Cleveland's not that good and is one of those must beat teams. I just wonder when they are going to start having fun while they're playing, because this isn't it.
I need the CF camera when the pitch is thrown, for consistency's sake. It's a game of cat and mouse, and missing even one round is disorienting. Between pitches, I agree, more diverse wide shots would be welcome.
They're clearly pressing a bit at the plate. But my concern is that the last 2 games haven't featured fundamentally solid baseball. Some nice defensive plays interspersed, but also offensive and defensive mistakes. Good teams simply do not beat themselves that way, and that's the 1 thing from last year I did not want to see,
Jose's comment about the umpire, meanwhile, shows ANOTHER old problem that I had hoped was gone, and believed that he understood. There's just no excuse for that. WTF?!? The organization needs to deal with that incident.
I don't doubt that this team has the physical ability to contend. I doubt that they have their heads in the right place to contend. Instead of laying those doubts to rest, this team is worsening them. I hope to see a turnaround soon - but if I don't, we can put away the playoff plans.
Jose's comment about the umpire, meanwhile, shows ANOTHER old problem that I had hoped was gone, and believed that he understood. There's just no excuse for that. WTF?!? The organization needs to deal with that incident.
I don't doubt that this team has the physical ability to contend. I doubt that they have their heads in the right place to contend. Instead of laying those doubts to rest, this team is worsening them. I hope to see a turnaround soon - but if I don't, we can put away the playoff plans.
Geez, I wish I'd triple proofread my last post, there were so many typos there I'd... um... I can't think of a joke. Anyway!
A three man bench isn't useless, but it's incredibly inefficient. It seems only useful in games like the one we just watched: a low scoring game where both starting pitchers run up high pitch counts and so both bullpens have arrived by the seventh inning. I guess my point really is, if you're going to have a serious stolen base threat like Rajai Davis on your bench, the roster you have should be able to best utilize Davis' strongest ability (speed) to help you win games. I mean, with the shortage of position players we have now, in extra innings it would've been almost impossible to pinch run Rajai Davis for anyone without putting Bautista at third base. That just annoys me.
A three man bench isn't useless, but it's incredibly inefficient. It seems only useful in games like the one we just watched: a low scoring game where both starting pitchers run up high pitch counts and so both bullpens have arrived by the seventh inning. I guess my point really is, if you're going to have a serious stolen base threat like Rajai Davis on your bench, the roster you have should be able to best utilize Davis' strongest ability (speed) to help you win games. I mean, with the shortage of position players we have now, in extra innings it would've been almost impossible to pinch run Rajai Davis for anyone without putting Bautista at third base. That just annoys me.
Going to call BS on you greenfrog here
Happy to respond to the substantive question as opposed to the smear.
Cleveland's first two runs came about directly as a result of errors / plays not made by Izturis, both of which I think Lawrie probably (not certainly) makes. First, Bourn's "double" in the third was a soft liner that Izturis chased down but couldn't catch -- it hit off the side of his glove and rolled away. With his explosiveness and quick reflexes, Lawrie probably makes that play, in my view. Cleveland's second run (in the eighth) came with runners on first and second and none out. Santana hit a hard grounder down the third base line that Izturis snared for the force at third (nice play, but one Lawrie might well have made), but proceeded to throw the ball down the first base line, resulting in an unearned run before Delabar retired the next two batters. Yes, Izturis hit a solo HR, but other things being equal, even if Lawrie goes 0-4, making these two plays would give the Jays a 2-1 win on Bautista's walk-off HR in the ninth.
Happy to respond to the substantive question as opposed to the smear.
Cleveland's first two runs came about directly as a result of errors / plays not made by Izturis, both of which I think Lawrie probably (not certainly) makes. First, Bourn's "double" in the third was a soft liner that Izturis chased down but couldn't catch -- it hit off the side of his glove and rolled away. With his explosiveness and quick reflexes, Lawrie probably makes that play, in my view. Cleveland's second run (in the eighth) came with runners on first and second and none out. Santana hit a hard grounder down the third base line that Izturis snared for the force at third (nice play, but one Lawrie might well have made), but proceeded to throw the ball down the first base line, resulting in an unearned run before Delabar retired the next two batters. Yes, Izturis hit a solo HR, but other things being equal, even if Lawrie goes 0-4, making these two plays would give the Jays a 2-1 win on Bautista's walk-off HR in the ninth.
Greenfrog, I was thinking the same thing - it seems that there are at least 2, if not as many as 4, plays that weren't made in the first two games that Lawrie makes.
People are referring to Izturis as Lawire's replacement... and the announcers were talking about Reyes and Bonifacio as a double-play combo...
Please tell me that isn't right. When Lawire comes back, it will be Izturis playing second, right?
Why would you want to play Bonifacio over Izturis?
Lawrie's a great ballplayer. Of course, they miss him. I did my letter to him in spring training suggesting he lay off the Red Bull; hopefully he will take this advice to heart. It's time for a letter to Jose Bautista.
Dear Jose,
You are the leader on this club. It is important that you show it by learning to deal more constructively with umpires. Maybe I can help you.
Umpires are like judges. They interpret rules. And for many things, including strike zone calls, there is no Court of Appeal from their decisions. What that means is that the strike zone on any particular day is not what the rulebook says, but how the umpire actually sees it. This does not mean that most umpires are arbitrary. They mostly try to call the pitch in accordance with their understanding of the rule book. So, what you have to do is to try to discover what umpire's strike zone is on a particular day by watching other at-bats, by asking an umpire whether he would have called a borderline pitch you swung at as a strike or ball (like Joe Morgan used to do), or any other way that you can think of (be creative).
Yes, there are a few umpires whose strike zones vary in ways that are utterly unpredictable. Some are predictable- more generous to the home team in the ninth inning (for instance). Do not take it on yourself to try to deal with the utterly unpredictable umpires. This is a matter for management. By all means, tell John Gibbons that umpire Joe Blow has a completely inconsistent strike zone (not that he won't know this already). Hopefully word makes it from Gibbons to Anthopoulos to the league president (who probably knows it already anyways too). Pity the poor league president who has to deal the issue.
Disputing strike zone calls in a game or acting childishly in a game in response to a call you disagree with is of no value. Complaining to the press about it is of no value to you or the ballclub. Worse yet, it diminishes you as a leader.
Mike
Dear Jose,
You are the leader on this club. It is important that you show it by learning to deal more constructively with umpires. Maybe I can help you.
Umpires are like judges. They interpret rules. And for many things, including strike zone calls, there is no Court of Appeal from their decisions. What that means is that the strike zone on any particular day is not what the rulebook says, but how the umpire actually sees it. This does not mean that most umpires are arbitrary. They mostly try to call the pitch in accordance with their understanding of the rule book. So, what you have to do is to try to discover what umpire's strike zone is on a particular day by watching other at-bats, by asking an umpire whether he would have called a borderline pitch you swung at as a strike or ball (like Joe Morgan used to do), or any other way that you can think of (be creative).
Yes, there are a few umpires whose strike zones vary in ways that are utterly unpredictable. Some are predictable- more generous to the home team in the ninth inning (for instance). Do not take it on yourself to try to deal with the utterly unpredictable umpires. This is a matter for management. By all means, tell John Gibbons that umpire Joe Blow has a completely inconsistent strike zone (not that he won't know this already). Hopefully word makes it from Gibbons to Anthopoulos to the league president (who probably knows it already anyways too). Pity the poor league president who has to deal the issue.
Disputing strike zone calls in a game or acting childishly in a game in response to a call you disagree with is of no value. Complaining to the press about it is of no value to you or the ballclub. Worse yet, it diminishes you as a leader.
Mike
Jose Bautista is correct to think that the world of umpiring is a mediocre one. It certainly is, either because the men tasked with doing the job are not very good or because the job is so inherently difficult that it simply cannot be done any better by humans. But he certainly should not say what he knows to be the truth. No good can come of that.
I fear that we are a long way off from introducing technology to resolve the sorry state of strike zone umpiring, not because the technology is not ready, but because of the magnitude of the change to the game this would represent. And, of course, some fans actually enjoy the "human element" aspect to umpiring, where up is down and left is right. For reasons unfathomable, improper calls somehow serve as a form of entertainment and a celebration of the human experience. To my mind, that's what the players are for.
Bautista has to learn the "skills" of political correctness, as unsavory as they may be to him. He must say aloud what is palatable to be said, even if he hates himself for doing so. Such is life as a grown-up on this planet.
When he retires, he can write an invective-laden memoir.
I fear that we are a long way off from introducing technology to resolve the sorry state of strike zone umpiring, not because the technology is not ready, but because of the magnitude of the change to the game this would represent. And, of course, some fans actually enjoy the "human element" aspect to umpiring, where up is down and left is right. For reasons unfathomable, improper calls somehow serve as a form of entertainment and a celebration of the human experience. To my mind, that's what the players are for.
Bautista has to learn the "skills" of political correctness, as unsavory as they may be to him. He must say aloud what is palatable to be said, even if he hates himself for doing so. Such is life as a grown-up on this planet.
When he retires, he can write an invective-laden memoir.
Bonifacio vs Izturis...
Izturis: 32 years old, lifetime 94 OPS+, 91-28 SB-CS, plays 3B/2B/SS (1 inning in outfield career)
Bonifacio: 28 years old, lifetime 81 OPS+, 110-28 SB-CS, plays CF/3B/SS/2B/LF/RF
So Bonifacio has 4 years on Izturis and is faster, not that Izturis is slow, but Izturis has a big 13 point OPS+ lead.
For fielding, UZR/150...
Izturis: 3B: 2.9, 2B: 8.0, SS: -1.0
Bonifacio: CF: -6.3, 3B: -7.4, SS: -13.2, 2B: -7.1, LF: 10.4, RF: 14.8
So on fielding at 2B Izturis is the clear winner by a good margin, same at 3B and SS.
What does this mean? It suggests strongly that Izturis should be the regular 2B with Bonifacio jumping around as always as needed, perhaps taking over the Rajai Davis role in 2014. However, the age is a big factor - many 2B fall apart around 32 - Alomar at 34 and Sandberg at 34 came to mind right away, and those were HOF talents one would suspect that non-HOF'ers would slow down earlier. Of course, who knows right?
On the surface Izturis should be everyday at 2B with Bonifacio as backup. However, scouts and management of the Jays and other teams have all said Bonifacio has impressed and that he could be the steal from the big deal. A good problem, if both play well.
Izturis: 32 years old, lifetime 94 OPS+, 91-28 SB-CS, plays 3B/2B/SS (1 inning in outfield career)
Bonifacio: 28 years old, lifetime 81 OPS+, 110-28 SB-CS, plays CF/3B/SS/2B/LF/RF
So Bonifacio has 4 years on Izturis and is faster, not that Izturis is slow, but Izturis has a big 13 point OPS+ lead.
For fielding, UZR/150...
Izturis: 3B: 2.9, 2B: 8.0, SS: -1.0
Bonifacio: CF: -6.3, 3B: -7.4, SS: -13.2, 2B: -7.1, LF: 10.4, RF: 14.8
So on fielding at 2B Izturis is the clear winner by a good margin, same at 3B and SS.
What does this mean? It suggests strongly that Izturis should be the regular 2B with Bonifacio jumping around as always as needed, perhaps taking over the Rajai Davis role in 2014. However, the age is a big factor - many 2B fall apart around 32 - Alomar at 34 and Sandberg at 34 came to mind right away, and those were HOF talents one would suspect that non-HOF'ers would slow down earlier. Of course, who knows right?
On the surface Izturis should be everyday at 2B with Bonifacio as backup. However, scouts and management of the Jays and other teams have all said Bonifacio has impressed and that he could be the steal from the big deal. A good problem, if both play well.
For fun I checked Brooks Baseball for some pitch stats - they have the pitch f/x stats summarized. What is interesting is how tight the release point for Morrow appears to be yesterday (I haven't checked a lot of others, maybe that is normal). You can see it here. Fun to see speed and all the rest too.
I'm always amused by players who make outs far more times than they reach base and who have been known to make a few errors in the field hyperventilating over the perceived failings of the umpires. Most umpiring "errors" are simply borderline calls that don't go your way. Certainly egregious mistakes are made from time to time, as they are in all areas of human endeavour, but on the other hand at least the umpires keep it to themselves when the players botch routine grounders.
The offensive projections for Izturis and Bonifacio are pretty tight.
The real issues are Izturis' durability and whether Rasmus starts against RHPs. My own guess is that once Lawrie returns, Izturis will be the regular second baseman, but that Bonifacio will play almost every day in the Tony Phillips supersub role (and will get 30 starts in CF). Personally, I would have started the season with Izturis at second base and Bonifacio/DaRosa at third base just to get things on the right footing. It's not a big deal.
The real issues are Izturis' durability and whether Rasmus starts against RHPs. My own guess is that once Lawrie returns, Izturis will be the regular second baseman, but that Bonifacio will play almost every day in the Tony Phillips supersub role (and will get 30 starts in CF). Personally, I would have started the season with Izturis at second base and Bonifacio/DaRosa at third base just to get things on the right footing. It's not a big deal.
but on the other hand at least the umpires keep it to themselves when the players botch routine grounders.
Huh? How the players perform is of no consequence to the umpires. The fans have a vested interest in the botched grounders and will mete out the "justice" they deem appropriate for those failings. The role of the umpires is to establish a fair playing environment for the drama to unfold, not to be part of the drama themselves.
Bonifacio is a bit of a mystery. He was solid in 2011, hitting 296/360/393 with 40 steals. He got off to a good start in 2012, hitting 268/351/315 with 20SB in 21 attempts. Then he hurt his hand and missed two months, and only hit 242/294/316 the rest of the way, missing September.
He's got some hitting ability, and a ton of speed to use if he can get on base. I'm interested to see what he can do with regular playing time.
He's got some hitting ability, and a ton of speed to use if he can get on base. I'm interested to see what he can do with regular playing time.
Headline...and News story
Some Jay's fans commit suicide following slow start!
"The six month, 162 mile marathon has begun. At mile 1 the Jay's racing team stayed back in the pack as a few surprising rabbits jumped to the fore. At mile two despite a late close to the middle of the pack the team again settled into a slow pace near the back of the pack. Racing analysts seemed confident the powerful Blue Jays racing team is merely just getting warmed up."
Mark Harbinger, of Rupert Murdoch's insightful London England daily, The Sun (make sure to check out the Page 3 girl) reported; "Despite several suicides in some Canadian villages the main body of the Blue Jays racing team seemed confident and fresh as they trotted the first two miles of the half year marathon. Brett lawrie - still in a southern mosquito infested American state while recovering from a self inflicted Red Bull overdose - was quoted as saying, 'The team will roar back once I get my truck load of Red Bull to the guys. And - that's no BULL, eh?' The always eloquent and loquacious Mr Lawrie later showed off his new tattoo of the new Pope's first dog - Toto - a tattoo he proudly had put on his tongue. "I nebber had un there befour, eh" he mumbled."
Some Jay's fans commit suicide following slow start!
"The six month, 162 mile marathon has begun. At mile 1 the Jay's racing team stayed back in the pack as a few surprising rabbits jumped to the fore. At mile two despite a late close to the middle of the pack the team again settled into a slow pace near the back of the pack. Racing analysts seemed confident the powerful Blue Jays racing team is merely just getting warmed up."
Mark Harbinger, of Rupert Murdoch's insightful London England daily, The Sun (make sure to check out the Page 3 girl) reported; "Despite several suicides in some Canadian villages the main body of the Blue Jays racing team seemed confident and fresh as they trotted the first two miles of the half year marathon. Brett lawrie - still in a southern mosquito infested American state while recovering from a self inflicted Red Bull overdose - was quoted as saying, 'The team will roar back once I get my truck load of Red Bull to the guys. And - that's no BULL, eh?' The always eloquent and loquacious Mr Lawrie later showed off his new tattoo of the new Pope's first dog - Toto - a tattoo he proudly had put on his tongue. "I nebber had un there befour, eh" he mumbled."
"Sometimes I have trouble more than others dealing with my production being affected by somebody else’s mediocrity."
This Bautista quote should be saved and shown to him when the team needs to move him out of RF.
This Bautista quote should be saved and shown to him when the team needs to move him out of RF.
"As long as the Jays are keeping 8 relievers for a couple weeks, the potential benefit vanishes if they are unwilling to use the 8th reliever."
Which is precisely the problem with 8 relievers. Teams don't carry 8 guys because they have 8 tremendous arms that need to be at the MLB level - they do it for reasons like trying to sneak near-worthless players through waivers or because they think most of the arms are overworked. It's not that the manager is unwilling to use the 8th guy, he's just typically there for protection and not really a part of the regular bullpen rotation. In this case with your AAA team 2 hours away, it makes more sense to carry 7 relievers and react to the need for more arms if guys are tired, not to be proactive and carry 8 relievers in the event guys get tired.
Which is precisely the problem with 8 relievers. Teams don't carry 8 guys because they have 8 tremendous arms that need to be at the MLB level - they do it for reasons like trying to sneak near-worthless players through waivers or because they think most of the arms are overworked. It's not that the manager is unwilling to use the 8th guy, he's just typically there for protection and not really a part of the regular bullpen rotation. In this case with your AAA team 2 hours away, it makes more sense to carry 7 relievers and react to the need for more arms if guys are tired, not to be proactive and carry 8 relievers in the event guys get tired.
I can't believe the Jays spent all that money this off-season and still have Adam Lind starting and hitting fifth. He is like a zit that won't go away.
"Sometimes I have trouble more than others dealing with my production being affected by somebody else’s mediocrity."
I'm sure that going forward José will be more than happy to concede as strikes any pitches on the black that some mediocre ump happens to deem balls -- especially in key situations with the game on the line.
I'm sure that going forward José will be more than happy to concede as strikes any pitches on the black that some mediocre ump happens to deem balls -- especially in key situations with the game on the line.
I can't believe the Jays spent all that money
this off-season and still have Adam Lind starting and hitting fifth. He
is like a zit that won't go away.
With Lawrie out and facing a RHP, Lind is probably the best of the options on the club for that spot. He has hit roughly .260/.320/.460 over the last 2 years against RHP.
With Lawrie out and facing a RHP, Lind is probably the best of the options on the club for that spot. He has hit roughly .260/.320/.460 over the last 2 years against RHP.
2010-2012:
Melky .348 OBP
Bonifacio .345 OBP
There's a solid argument to be made that they are better off batting Bonnie #2 so they can have Melky behind the thumpers.
Melky .348 OBP
Bonifacio .345 OBP
There's a solid argument to be made that they are better off batting Bonnie #2 so they can have Melky behind the thumpers.
Huh? How the players perform is of no consequence to the umpires. The fans have a vested interest in the botched grounders and will mete out the "justice" they deem appropriate for those failings. The role of the umpires is to establish a fair playing environment for the drama to unfold, not to be part of the drama themselves
Of course. And so they typically behave themselves with dignity, unlike many ballplayers who waste no time in showing up the umps on the field and excoriating them afterwards each time a call doesn't go their way. Bautista still has a thing or two to learn about the right way to speak about the help in public.
I am still not worried. Everyone is just a little uptight. After the first win and they breakout for a couple runs, everyone will relax and it will come....
If you project Bonifacio to have an OBP of .345, he is a decent #2 choice. He has bounced around enough that all the analysts project him in the .315-.335 range. Melky does considerably better in both OBP and much, much better in slugging percentage.
When I popped in the slash projections into baseball musings run estimator, all of the most optimal lineups had Brett Lawrie batting cleanup (but Bautista leading off, of course). Personally, I'd ignore that, and run out Reyes, Lawrie, Cabrera, Bautista, Encarnacion, Lind...That way, you could start the season with Bonifacio in Lawrie's slot and then move him down once Lawrie returns without changing the lineup too much.
None of this matters that much.
When I popped in the slash projections into baseball musings run estimator, all of the most optimal lineups had Brett Lawrie batting cleanup (but Bautista leading off, of course). Personally, I'd ignore that, and run out Reyes, Lawrie, Cabrera, Bautista, Encarnacion, Lind...That way, you could start the season with Bonifacio in Lawrie's slot and then move him down once Lawrie returns without changing the lineup too much.
None of this matters that much.
I think so as well. Just need that breakout inning. With a little luck it could have come opening night if Lind's shot was just a little to the left or right.
The projections have no idea how to factor in a PED suspension, so frankly they are completely useless when comparing Melky & Bonifacio.
I know we're supposed to not care about the batting order, but it just seems like the big moment always finds Adam Lind, and that's likely more than just a feeling considering he hits behind the 2 highest OBPs on the team.
I know we're supposed to not care about the batting order, but it just seems like the big moment always finds Adam Lind, and that's likely more than just a feeling considering he hits behind the 2 highest OBPs on the team.
I'm with 92-93. It might make sense to have Cabrera hit behind those guys. Would create more holes for him, too.
Melky has a career 12.1% K rate versus Bonifacio's 20.1% K rate. It might be that Gibbons and AA prefer having the superior contact hitter in the #2 slot.
Of course, the ultimate solution would be to acquire a #5 hitter that pitchers really don't want to face with runners on. This could be a lefty bat like Morneau (career wRC+ 119) or Chase Utley (career wRC+ 129) -- heck, maybe even both -- instead of Lind (career wRC+ 103).
It will be interesting to see whether AA truly goes "all in" at the deadline -- will players like Sanchez and Osuna be available chips to acquire the final piece or two?
Of course, the ultimate solution would be to acquire a #5 hitter that pitchers really don't want to face with runners on. This could be a lefty bat like Morneau (career wRC+ 119) or Chase Utley (career wRC+ 129) -- heck, maybe even both -- instead of Lind (career wRC+ 103).
It will be interesting to see whether AA truly goes "all in" at the deadline -- will players like Sanchez and Osuna be available chips to acquire the final piece or two?
And there's nothing wrong with Adam Lind coming up against a RHP with runners on base, as compared with Melky Cabrera (if you believe that Cabrera's projection ought to be humble due to the PED factor). I hasten to add that I was and am in the "find another solution to the DH issue" camp, but the real problem with Lind as DH is not when he comes up with runners on against a RHP, but when he leads off. #5 hitters actually lead off quite a bit because they lead off in the second inning whenever one runner reaches base in the first.
Bonifacio is projected to go on average .270/.330/.350. That's not great for a #2 hitter. There are no right answers to the question.
Bonifacio is projected to go on average .270/.330/.350. That's not great for a #2 hitter. There are no right answers to the question.
there's nothing wrong with Adam Lind coming up against a RHP with runners on base,
It's situational. First and third, one out, second inning, Lind batting against some scrub #4 starter is fine, even good. Ninth inning against some closer with a 98 fastball? Not so much.
It's situational. First and third, one out, second inning, Lind batting against some scrub #4 starter is fine, even good. Ninth inning against some closer with a 98 fastball? Not so much.
We’re still within hailing distance of Passover….thus, The Four Questions
How much real value (expressed sabermetrically) will Jose Bautista, whose sudden rise to prominence may have damaged his judgment, lose this year?
Does Bonifacio have the arm for third base or short stop, or for that matter centerfield?
Has the strategic, ego-saving purpose of the of JPA as RAD’s catcher narrative (JP’s our guy…RA loves him…oops catastrophic failure) been served? Can we now move along?
Is it possible that the Jays have three Cy Young candidates?
And so they typically behave themselves with dignity, unlike
Dignity is all fine and well, but competence is what would ensure fairness. And if humans can't do it, then it's time for robo-umps.
Bautista still has a thing or two to learn about the right way to speak about the help in public.
Absolutely true. But that is separate from the issue of umpire competence.
Dignity is all fine and well, but competence is what would ensure fairness. And if humans can't do it, then it's time for robo-umps.
While it can't be demonstrated empirically (at least by me), I would hazard the guess that the umpiring abilities of major league umps, relative to the general population, are at least as exceptional as the baseball abilities of pro ballplayers, and are unlikely to be improved much, if at all. Believe it or not, the boys in blue are at the tail end of the curve. Robo-umps are certainly fine with me, though - I just hope they program it to give "established veterans" like Bautista the benefit of the doubt on pitches on the black or else the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Blue Jays' dugout will be something to behold.
Believe it or not, the boys in blue are at the tail end of the curve.
Right, and I acknowledged this by saying that it is possible that umpiring may not be performed by humans any better than it is right now. It may be just too inherently difficult to distinguish a ball from a strike more than 3 out of 4 times (or whatever their success rate is).
I think you can safely stop raling against Bautista. Everyone seems to be in concurrence that his behaviour is inappropriate. Continuining to do so only serves to conflate two separate issues, his behaviour and umpire competence. Even if Bautista had the demanour of a John Olerud, I, as a fan, would continue to have problems with the quality of umpiring (even if the new Mr. Bautista didn't), even if the men in blue were the very best the planet had to offer.
Right, and I acknowledged this by saying that it is possible that umpiring may not be performed by humans any better than it is right now. It may be just too inherently difficult to distinguish a ball from a strike more than 3 out of 4 times (or whatever their success rate is).
I think you can safely stop raling against Bautista. Everyone seems to be in concurrence that his behaviour is inappropriate. Continuining to do so only serves to conflate two separate issues, his behaviour and umpire competence. Even if Bautista had the demanour of a John Olerud, I, as a fan, would continue to have problems with the quality of umpiring (even if the new Mr. Bautista didn't), even if the men in blue were the very best the planet had to offer.
I don't know, Alex. Lind has done about as well in high leverage situations as low leverage situations over the last three years.
I really don't think that it is truly a batting order issue. Lind is a mediocre platoon DH at this point in his career (regardless whether the umpires call him out publicly about it!), who doesn't get on base near enough, is very slow but still has some significant extra base power. Ideally you bat a guy like that 6 in the order. With Lawrie out, you are left with a series of less than perfect options and having Lind hit 5th against a RHP is definitely one of them. Now if he starts against a LHP, that is a whole other matter entirely.
The other issue is pinch-running for him. In a close game (tied, 1 run either way), I would pinch-run for him routinely from the 5th inning on, in almost every situation (not with a one run lead as the trailing baserunner). You do need a 7 man pen, and a left-handed bat on the bench, to make that plan comfortable.
I really don't think that it is truly a batting order issue. Lind is a mediocre platoon DH at this point in his career (regardless whether the umpires call him out publicly about it!), who doesn't get on base near enough, is very slow but still has some significant extra base power. Ideally you bat a guy like that 6 in the order. With Lawrie out, you are left with a series of less than perfect options and having Lind hit 5th against a RHP is definitely one of them. Now if he starts against a LHP, that is a whole other matter entirely.
The other issue is pinch-running for him. In a close game (tied, 1 run either way), I would pinch-run for him routinely from the 5th inning on, in almost every situation (not with a one run lead as the trailing baserunner). You do need a 7 man pen, and a left-handed bat on the bench, to make that plan comfortable.
From the "It could be worse" department... Tampa's DH the first 2 games of this season, batting ninth... Kelly Johnson!
Tampa's DH the first 2 games of this season, batting ninth... Kelly Johnson!
Actually, it's a little stranger than that. In one of those two starts, he was actually the first baseman, the first time he has played the position. And it was against a lefty.
I'm not sure if Morneau's career numbers are relevant any more. Post-concussion, he's been a slightly better, far more expensive Adam Lind.
It's a good point. Teams looking for a bat at the deadline will be scrutinizing Morneau's numbers in the first half of this year. For what it's worth, his 2012 stats were vastly superior to his 2011 stats, so it's perhaps misleading to lump all of his post-concussion results together. The positive trend (along with the fact that he's only 31 and says he feels great) suggests some reason for optimism. In Toronto he would presumably get a decent amount of rest as a platoon DH, and would be under contract for this year only.
Lastly, Morneau in 2012 (108 wRC+) was quite a bit better than Lind in 2012 (98 wRC+) -- a not insignificant difference.
Lastly, Morneau in 2012 (108 wRC+) was quite a bit better than Lind in 2012 (98 wRC+) -- a not insignificant difference.
Is it possible that the Jays have three Cy Young candidates?
I know some of you are interested in Game Scores. I have an app (NB Under development) here which has some charts/tables by Pitcher
Here are the starters performances (2013,2012,career)
- Dickey (48, 62.1, 51.9)
- Morrow (62, 57.8, 53.3)
- Buehrle (-, 53.3,51.5)
- Johnson (-, 53.8, 56.4)
- Happ (-,49.9,50.9)
- Romero (-, 44.0,51.8)
The 2013 Bonus pool numbers are out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-bonus-pools-rise-8-2-percent/ . Toronto has $6,398,200.00 plus 4.999% ($319,846.02) or $6,718,046.02 to spend on their first 10 picks: 10, 47, 83, 115, 145, 175, 205, 235, 265 and 295. I can't find out how much each slot is worth, yet, so unless someone else can find the stuff, we needs must wait.
Interesting about Lind's performance in the high-leverage situations. That's obviously somewhat removed from my impression of how he should/does fare. He also hits a bit better with runners on - the average hitter improves with runners on more than Lind did last year, but not by a huge margin. I'm still a bit skeptical, but I tend to think a good contact hitter is the last thing you want to see when you're in a jam and it might just be that bias underrating Lind.
On the other hand, if he continues to go hitless for too long, you might decide that even his 2010-12 performance is beyond his current abilities. You wouldn't want to wait too long to make that decision.
Thanks for the info & the link to this years draft, Richard SS.