So record your opinion below. There is no need for debate, an approve or disapprove will be fine. At the end of the season when either the Jays are in the playoffs, or when the Jays miss the playoffs and Travis d'Arnaud is rookie of the year, we can look back and double check your opinion at the time the deal was made.
So record your opinion below. There is no need for debate, an approve or disapprove will be fine. At the end of the season when either the Jays are in the playoffs, or when the Jays miss the playoffs and Travis d'Arnaud is rookie of the year, we can look back and double check your opinion at the time the deal was made.
I also will go on record as saying that JPA has a better career than D'Arnaud.
I vote YEA!
(Da Box should get working on a new banner soon. Ol’ Rickey just doesn’t do it any more, does he?)
I emphatically approve. 20 years since Joe Carter touched 'em all. I have bitterly complained about the cheapness of the ownership and the poor management for years. Now ownership has stepped up with an infusion of cash and management has moved boldly to go for it at a perceived moment of relative weakness for NY and Boston. For the first time in forever, the Jays are bona fide playoff and WS contenders. I am starved for a winner. I want to talk about how the playoff rotation sets up, not another top 30 prospect list.
I think Dickey has been largely underrated in this debate while d'Arnaud has been overrated. We just acquired the NL Cy Young Winner for crying out loud! Rany Jazayerli lays it out beautifully in Grantland - this guy is really, really good. While many seem conflicted, I think it's an easy yes on this trade. We'll see who's right this October.
My only complaint right now is that it appears we have to endure another season of Adam Lind.
It's been 20 years, since we've tasted postseason baseball....20 years!!! Sure, there's potential that the Jays will rue the day, but all I know in this moment is I've got more reality-based hope and excitement for the upcoming season than I have had in....20 years.
Count me as "pro deal".
The time is now. Bautista is not getting any younger. It is time for Baseball to come back to Toronto.
I also like how we have a mix of two power right handers, two lefties and a knuckballer. Teams are going to hate facing them. Thier timing is going to be so messed up after.
Four thoughts about R. A. D.:
- If the Jays hadn't traded for him, the Yankees or the Red Sox probably would have. He wasn't going to stay put.
- The last time that the Jays traded for a front-line Mets starter, they won the World Series.
- If the Mets send d'Arnaud down to AAA, he'll be going back to Las Vegas. He can show his new teammates how to live cheaply in Sin City on a minor leaguer's salary. That's always useful.
- Knuckleballers are fun to watch. Which way is the pitch going to go? Whoosh. Nope, it went the other way.
Dickey is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and likely will be for most of his next few years.
The chances of D'Arnaud or Syndergaard ever becoming that kind of player are slim.
Dickey was also a much needed upgrade to take this roster from "good team" to "legit contender", and one for at least the next 3 years. (IMO, they still need an upgrade at 1B to be considered one of the "favorites", though). and the Jays are left with plenty of prospect depth anyways.
In particular I think this might be a great time to sell high on TDA - no matter which way I slice his minor league numbers, I can't make them add up to a star MLBer to go along with his current reputation. He's a safe prospect, but not a huge upside one IMO. Syndergaard I'm a bit higher on - legit top-end potential here, though at his age and stage there's a ton of risk there.
Rich package, but you just don't get one of the best players in baseball for anything less.
On the other hand, I trust AA and his front office team to make mostly good decisions. I understand the logic of the trade. My head tells me that the overall contract (3/$30M plus a team option) is very good value. The Jays didn't just trade for a year of Dickey -- they traded for a potentially frontline starter at outstanding value. Dickey was damn good last year. And sometimes things aren't as they appear on the surface (Brett Wallace versus Anthony Gose). In actuality, d'Arnaud and Syndergaard might not be as good as the hype.
For example, one talent evaluator quoted in the NY Post said of d'Arnaud, “I liked him, but he was third in the Eastern League on my list as far as catchers. He’s defensively solid and he’s got some power, but to be honest I wasn’t overly impressed with the guy.”
Similarly, Marc Hulet was a bit underwhelmed by d'Arnaud as well. And several observers have mentioned Syndergaard's difficulties in developing a breaking ball.
Mostly, my head and heart tell me that I have no idea what to expect. There is a wide range of outcomes for everyone involved, from d'Arnaud and Syndergaard and Becerra to Dickey.
I will say yea, but only cautiously, and only because I trust in AA.
Oh, and I approve. Nobody has any idea how these prospects will actually turn out, but we do know that we just added the Cy Young to our pitching staff. Somehow AA added THREE 200 inning pitchers to the MLB team this off-season.
Is Buffalo already looking for another AAA parent organization?
Sidenote: when you look at the dollar figures of these contracts being handed out these days take some time and have a look at Joey, Edwin, Dickey, and Morrow's contracts.
What I also love is that AA suggested there are more prospects that are tradeable thus an upgrade at DH/1B might be possible still (replacing Lind that is).
Yes, there is a chance that this trade will look bad, but Dickey is one of the best pitchers in baseball and to get that is huge, especially for such an affordable contract. The Jays have given themselves a window of a few years to compete but the system is hardly bare and the Jays will get another excellent prospect (hopefully a hitter) at#10 in the draft this year.
I'm excited to get Dickey, so I guess I'll vote Yay. The Mets ended up with an excellent package for him, but Dickey has a good chance to be worth it. On the free agent market, the price for great starting pitching is through the roof, and to get a guy like Dickey at team friendly dollars has a lot of value.
Meanwhile, if we can get a full season of 200+ inninings out of Johnson, Buehrle, Dickey, and Morrow, then we will put a lot less pressure on the bullpen. It becomes a virtuous circle.
I also really like the mix of starboard and port sides, the mix of speeds, the mix of pitch types from one through five.
Most of all, my hopes (not necessarily my expectations) for retaining Oliver and extending Johnson have risen, given what kind of team they would be signing up for.
Did you expect the Mets to get nothing for the reigning Cy Young winner? Sure it was too much. The Mets did well. I still approve. It is going to be quite the pitching staff.
An aspect that hasn't been discussed much is John Buck and his $6M salary. That's not nothing.
Oh no. But I do like d'Arnaud more than Joel Collins. :)
In the context of this strategy, and on the heels of the Florida deal which left us somewhat pot-committed, I'm in favour of the Dickey deal.
Jose Bautista.
A guy like Bautista doesn't come along very often, and when he does, you want to make use of him. Who knows how many good years he has left in him? Anthopoulos had to surround him with championship-quality players while he had the chance.
It's a shame that Ash and Ricciardi couldn't do the same for Delgado and Halladay.
But don't forget that Anthopoulos is pushing for a playoff run next season too, and the season after. He made that clear in his comments to the media last night. He said: "...it’s not just about one season. This allows us to really put what we feel is a contending team together for an extended run, for a three-to-five year period."
That might seem like an exaggeration, but consider this: Josh Johnson is the only key player who might vanish at the end of 2013. Every other key player is controllable to some extent (although arguably the Jays might not want to keep paying Buehrle in 2014 and beyond when his salary soars). If the Jays can find a way to extend Johnson, or replace him by acquiring another top pitcher, they don't face any significant decline in their performance in 2014. So it could be true -- the Jays could be making a run at the playoffs for the next several years. It's not a David Cone situation where they're going "all in" for a single season. When they gave up Syndergaard and d'Arnaud, it's not necessarily a sacrifice for a single season of contention.
The major league team has positioned itself to be competitive and entertaining. Things could certainly go sideways, that's just the nature of professional sports. But the ingredients are in place for the potential of an entertaining summer.
Bring it on.
The two banners hanging quietly in the Skydome send shivers down my spine, and, at 8 years old in 1993, those moments cemented my love for baseball for a lifetime to come. Ok, Blue Jays, Let's Play Ball!
Rogers is going in for the kill - they want not just to overtake TSN, but to bury them. Having a sudden pennant contender exclusively on your own cable sports network when there's hardly anything else to watch means ratings, ratings, and more ratings. Not to mention a likely spike in home game attendance. The investment Rogers is making now wasn't made blindly, nor was it altruistic. The good news is that we benefit as well. What do you know - a positive externality for once.
The Deal was done http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/sports/baseball/unable-to-lock-up-dickey-mets-capitalize-on-value.html?ref=sports&_r=0 on Thursday, but it was Saturday when MLB granted 72 hour negotiating window. Wow, no wonder leaks developed, with two people in the know, then 10, then 100, then 1000 or more. A.A. picked up undervalued players for a very equitable price. He got a CY Young award winner, a Super-Two Catcher, the only other guy to catch a Knuckleball and completely moved $6.0 MM in salary at little cost. I fully believe the trade was Value for Value.
Roberto Osuna will be 18 and likely in A+ or even AA by season's end. Chances are good he will be better than the broken up "Lansing 3". As promising as he might be, the 18 year-old Outfielder Wuimer Becarra isn't that significant a loss.
Yeah, for that reason alone! To be able to talk about the Jays pitching with that sentence! Priceless :)
This is a big takeaway from this offseason, no matter what promising and uncertain futures the young men traded away may have. Nothing is certain, not for the players of this year's roster or for the players the Jays traded away. I understand the expected price of Dickey was to be lower than what the Jays paid. And much of that value can hinge on just how special is Dickey? How much did other teams want him? What will he do at the Dome? Can he amaze even more, post-Mets?
The Blue Jays have made a big push here, acquiring tested and high-calibre people that know how to play and warrant much excitement for the coming season. My thought is: can you imagine being a Pirate fan for the last 20 years? A long, long string of consecutive losing seasons. Granted the hope there can be said to be brighter now than it has been in any of the past 20 years, but if you want some perspective at how fortunate Jays fans should feel I say take a look there. It can be really difficult to know what you have without taking yourself outside the walls of your own understanding. Pretend to be a Pittsburghian for a moment. 20 losing seasons. A long history of failed prospects. Fortune and opportunity must be seized when the opportunity arises, lest 20 losing seasons pass you by.
Hooray for Conquistador Alex. Be forever bold.
I feel the same way as Mike Green about the outbound players, but after hearing AA's interview on 590 yesterday, my ultimate verdict is "yeah."
I think AA is sincere about the "window of contention" analysis regarding Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, etc. In the past, he's often justified not making splashy acquisitions because it "wasn't timed right" to contend. I always thought (and reasonably so, frankly) that this was an excuse to cover up budgetary restraints. But it appears to be something about which he is dead serious.
Reading between the lines of the interview, I think AA has concluded that there is very little chance that the team can keep Josh Johnson, and this is why I support the Dickey acquisition. If Johnson has a good season, he'll seek and obtain a nine-figure deal and no-trade clause, and not from the Jays; the team is right at the very top of its payroll limits and Buck's salary for 2013 had to come off the books to make the Dickey acquisition work. Dickey, given his age and primary pitch and the Mets' uncompetitive team, was the one chance for the Jays to obtain a front-of-the-rotation starter for 2014 and 2015 (who was actually available) without having to shell out for a contract like that. (Maybe a playoff run and 3 million in attendance will change the willingness to pay ace-level contract, but that's not assured.) Even if Syndergaard does turn into a #1 or #2, it won't be soon enough for the Jays' window.
Somewhat counter-intuitively, if the Jays extend Josh Johnson, it makes the Dickey trade seem a lot worse to me. But I think the Jays need Dickey, or someone of that calibre, to anchor the rotation that will probably feature Drabek or Hutchison instead of Johnson starting in 2014. So that's why I'm a "yeah."
Dickey
Morrow
Buehrle
Romero
Happ
Hutchison
Drabek
Nolin
That's a pretty good start. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Stroman given a shot at starting...
Anyway. I'm enthusiastic about Johnson and Dickey and Buehrle, and I've always liked Morrow, but I find myself hoping that Romero can bounce back and show them all how it's done. And even more than that I have a little sliver of hope that Dustin McGowan will surpass them all.
The payroll is huge but we have a very rich owner. The fans of Toronto & Canada may shell out $ & entertainment time on the Jays.
At this time only the J Reyes contract is long enough to be an albatross.
Switching to an expression of wild optimism. If this team wins then AA & Gibbons & the Jays FO will be viewed as extremely good. A group to rely on.
Winning & Marketing a contender properly should snag, hook, capture a whole lot of new fans. That should be very important in many respects besides Money.
One thing on D'Arnaud - I know scouts loved him, but his offense was Vegas-inflated last year. I'm still not convinced you get any read on a hitter playing there (performances of Gomes? Arencibia? Snider? etc...). Dropping the Vegas affiliate might be the best offseason move this year...
I think not re-signing Johnson would make these moves seem a little worse, as the Jays clear years of contention are 2013-2015. So letting him walk and taking the draft pick hurts that plan significantly. Although at this point I am kind of expecting the Jays to contend for the division all season, which should bring a significat uptick in revenue (attendance and TV ratings). Playoffs would bring anymore. So I'm not too worried about Anthopoulos saying that about $20 million dollar pitchers now, with the budget as is. If things go right tha budget should continue to go up a bit. It's not like there would be a slew of other guys to sign too, Johnson is about the only one.
Matthew E's comment about JB is spot on, and he isn't the only expiring commodity. Look at this organization's minors, objectively. At the positions, it's weak. But it has pitching. The major leaguers have position players, but slim starting pitching.
We can wait for the pitchers to mature, and have to bring in a bunch of high-end position players by the time we have a dominant set. Or we can bring in pitchers now, trading some of our minor league depth in that area, and try to make a run with this set of position players.
Those were our choices. Pick one.
The division has opened the door in 2013, and our acquisitions will keep us strong into 2014. Yes, this was the right time to go for it. I wasn't sure they would, and they did. Happiness.
Am I still worried about Lind (or whomever DH), Rasmus, 2nd base, and catcher. In decreasing order of worry, yeah, I am. One way or another, at least 2 of those holes will need to resolve, if we really want to play in another World Series. And our pitching can sustain 1 injury/ flameout, but not more.
So there's risk. But the only reason we can sustain even 1 pitching hole is RA Dickey. You have to have at least that much cushion, or you're doomed. He's also the reason the set continues to be very strong into 2014. Once you make the Miami deal, you have to make the RA Dickey deal.
At a non-Yankees payroll, there always will be risk. But this is the best rotation the Jays have ever fielded. EVER. Our defense is good enough. Not fantastic, but at least average and probably a shade above. Pitching and defense is where it starts. And our team now has legit speed from 3-4 players now, in addition to a lot of power. This is a risk set I like - and once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen.
Will some OBP shine on us? Let's hope so, because if it does, this is going to be one seriously scary team.
That is good question, "Is this the best starting rotation the Blue Jays have ever started?"
1992 had a staff of Steib, Morris, Key, Guzman and Stottlemyre. Steib was a shell of himself. I also want to not that Cone came later that year, and Wells, Leiter and Hentgen were in the bullpen.
I think the 1991 staff was comparable to this year with Candiotti, Guzman, Stottlemyre, Wells and Key.
It is Gibbons, Mottola, Walker & Hentgen that have to be smart. If a player breaks a leg then someone else will have to fill in. An injury like KJ had last year is harder to deal with. If anyone pitches like Romero did in 2011 then it is easy to keep running them out there. But if anyone pitches like the 2012 Romero & is healthy, the team will suffer. How that is handled is crucial. Same type of thinking for the hitters.
Logically it makes sense to say that If you put your best players on the field then your chances of winning are the greatest. But in baseball many teams do not do that because that type of thinking is probably wrong. C Janssen had options in 2010 so he could be sent down. We did not want to risk losing valuable players that did not have options left.
Baseball strategy & team construction is very complicated.
I do believe it was a mild - not huge - overpay. He's a Cy winner and even with the caveats, those don't come cheap. I consider it a mild overpay because i think that Syndergaard, JPA, and someone like, say, Dwight Smith ought to have been pretty fair but they just didn't intend to take JP.
That said, it was still the right move even if you have to overpay. The reality is that it's like an e-bay auction:
You have it in your head that the item you want is worth $100 to you, and the bid reaches and exceeds that price by a buck or two. At that point it's NOT whether or not you are spending the first $100 - you were always prepared to do that. It's about the number of marginal dollars you are willing to overpay to seal the deal. you have to ask yourself - "Am I willing to do without my desired $100 item because I won't go to $110?"
in this case, the smart move was pretty obviously to overpay if that's what it took. From the description of events, it doesn't seem like AA was bidding against himself.
I had a higher view of d'Arnaud than was perhaps warrented but I know "the cost of doing business" when i see it.
But this Cy Young winner did come cheap. The cost in prospects was so high because we got Dickey for an overpaid backup catcher, thus not adding a penny to a maxed out 2013 budget, plus 2 more years of future control at a reasonable price.
I was confining myself to the payment made to the METS, not to Dickey. The context being "for what price (in prospects) could the Mets be expected to let their prize go?"
What we pay Dickey has nothing to do with what it takes to persuade the Mets.
Obviously it did, since the deal with the Mets was contingent on being able to agree to an extension with Dickey, and the extension contingent on Dickeys price being reasonable.
Let us hope it turns out just as well as AA believes. I like to imagine someone in the organization picks up the knuckleball from our new stud pitcher. Which would seem to really increase the total value, should it work. How about McGowan? He's a smart, eager and soon to be desperate kid in pursuit of a dream.
I think there's really only one needed piece left - either a new DH or a platoon partner for Lind.
At this point I'd expect Davis to platoon with Lind, while AA keeps hunting for a AAA masher who cannot get a break. Most end up in Japan, but it looks like Randy Ruiz might be back :) I guess Sierra could be used too but I think he'll be in AAA this year.
shame Josh Phelps is retired, he'd have fit that slot perfectly
I don't know that there's room in the game for this type of player any more. The no-defense RHB is too much of a luxury to carry on the short modern day 4-man bench. Any RH halves of DH platoons are going to be able to need to do something else. Rajai Davis can pinch-run and play the outfield (albeit not very well). I think he's Lind's platoon partner even if you'd really prefer a little more than his 290/349/417 career numbers vs LHP.
"The Padres are using their bullpen depth, infield depth and Jesus Guzman as trade bait, says Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune as part of his most recent chat with readers."
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jesus-guzman/#wIqxye8uDCHicDsD.99
2012 vs LHP: .303/.401/.541 sOPS+ 149
Career vs LHP:.311/.387/.509 sOPS+ 130
Obviously it did, since the deal with the Mets was contingent on being able to agree to an extension with Dickey, and the extension contingent on Dickeys price being reasonable.
You are looking at it exactly backwards.
We could have been willing to pay Dickey 25 mil a year and if we were not willing to give NY d'Arnaud it would not have mattered.
That makes no sense at all. Their ONLY motivation for dealing him was rebuilding - you don't rebuild without getting the best young players in return that are possible to obtain - if you don't get the proper deal then you wait until July.