Also think there's more moves coming. For one thing, there's now about six major league calibre catchers hanging around. .

Reyes is due 10, 16, 22, 22, 22 million over the next five years. (there's an option for a sixth at 22, with a 4 million buyout). Buehrle signed for 4 - 58 so there's three years at about 14.5 each remaining (can't find annual breakdowns...) Johnson's owed 13.75 for 2013 and then a free agent.

So that's approx 38 million added for next year, less 5 for Escobar, but Reyes' contract really ramps up into the Vernon Wells territory.

I'm sure others will follow with more detailed breakdowns.

Buck is owed $6 million for 2013 as well, Buehrle's owed $12 million for 2013, $18 million for 2014 and $19 million for 2015. Bonifacio made $2.2 million in arbitration in 2012. It's about $40 million in additional salary for 2013 (net of Escobar).

He's 34 next year. Top comps on baseball-reference include players like Frank Viola, Jimmy Key, Paul Splitorff, Mike Flanagan...

Viola had his last good year at 33. Splitorff at 36, Flanagan at 37 (ok year at 39 as a reliever), Key at 36.37.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA (predictably) has him declining in value steadily until he's 37, after which he dips below replacement level.

Well, they may have if the Jays had any more money to spend. I'll be surprised if they do (that is to add anyone more than a back-end piece).

As Charlie points out, the Johnson contract negotiations will be very interesting to watch. I'm not optimistic on that front, given AA's comments about the length of contracts and what Johnson will presumably be demanding in the offseason. There's no reason to assume he won't sign in Toronto, but the team would have to make it worth his while and I'm not convinced they will. Suddenly, I'm even more interested to see what the final figures are for Greinke.

Given Johnson's contract, his injury history, Reyes' injury history and development curve, Buehrle's seeming reluctance to want to play anywhere but a select few cities and the dollars involved, there is a not inconsiderable risk to this trade. But, every free agent has a flaw, as well.

I think the answer to this depends on how you define a win. I think this trade is a win in that I think it was unrealistic to expect the Jays to acquire three players of the calibre of Reyes, Johnson and Buehrle (and a nice supplementary piece in Bonifacio) in a trade and pay noticeably less than they did. If AA wanted the certainty of acquiring players, as opposed to the uncertainty of a bidding war for Anibal Sanchez or was scared off by the early demands of players like Sanchez and Jackson, then trading was the only alternative route and the price paid wasn't astronomical. Some of the players they gave up might turn out to be quite good one day, but that's the risk you run everytime you trade prospects and, besides, Josh Johnson is quite good right now.

However, if you view whether the trade is a win based on the outcome in terms of results on the field, then it's far less certain. As several comments have alluded to, there are risks with the players acquired and Johnson may only be here for a year. In three years the Jays may have a beaten down Jose Reyes earning a lot of money and still have not made the playoffs since 1993. (Of course that's a risk no matter what move is made, but it's easy to envisage a scenario where this happens with this group of players.) In that sense, it might be a loss in that you can say that AA should have tried to hitch his horse to a different wagon and made smaller trades to acquire Trevor Bauer and Jon Niese and kept Escobar at short. However, we have a limited knowledge of the alternatives and the costs (and to some extent AA does, as well).

It wasn't an overpayment and, while there is risk, it appears to be a calculated gamble that improves the team's chances at the playoffs considerably in 2013 and to some extent in at least 2014. From my vantage point today, I think you have to call that a win.

We needed to upgrade the rotation, and Josh Johnson is an exciting addition!  Buerhle also gives us innings and some stability, if things go as expected.  We are also now looking at having a veteran pitching staff, which is strange after being so youth oriented in recent seasons. 

3 year xFIP Fangraphs time!

Johnson (3.37), Morrow (3.65), Romero (4.06), Buerhle (4.27), Happ (4.35)

Relievers are unpredictable, but our group of Santos, Janssen, Oliver, Delabar, Loup, Lincoln, and Rogers has good potential.  With any luck, our bullpen ERA will shake off last year and get back into the 3.00's for us.  For fun, let's assume we get 450 innings (average-ish workload) of 3.50 ERA.  Let's give Happ 150 innings and the other 4 guys 200 innings each.  That adds up to 1400 innings, which is about 10 to 80 innings short for a 162 game season, but close enough.  Crunch those numbers, using xFIP to predict ERA for the starters, and you get a team ERA of 3.78.    

A team ERA of 3.78 would give us a very good chance to compete in the American League.  That number is based on staying healthy, and our pitching staff (as a whole) replicating what they've done (on average) in recent years, but there you go.  :)

There was some speculation last night, which seems quite logical in many respects, that there is a strong likelihood that if JP was traded, the Jays would start the season with Buck and Wilson and d'Arnaud in Triple-A and they would make him play his way to the majors and get some regular minor league at-bats when healthy again, which they speculated may take six weeks or so. Then he would start in something like a tandem with Buck before, hopefully, assuming the regular catching duties by 2/3rds of the way through the season. That's all speculation and ideal scenarios, but that seems like a reasonable approach to the situation if JP can by used to fetch a big bat LF/DH, which I think is a noticeably more pressing concern than 2B.

Laffey is a free agent.  The Jays will have to sign some experienced starters for Buffalo.

Assuming the trade is completed, who is the Jays #6 starter, the guy on-call in case of an injury?

Drabek, Hutchison and McGowan are presumably unavailable.  Litsch is gone, Laffey is gone, Villanueva is gone.  Alvarez is traded.  Even Shawn Hill signed elsewhere.

As of today your #6 starter is either Brett Cecil or Chad Jenkins.

I assume there is a trade or a free agent signing still to come.

The Jays 40 man roster is full.  As far as I can see this trade brings in one more 40 man roster player than is going the other way.  The Jays will need to take another player off their 40 man.

I wonder if this move may tilt the balance for Oliver to return for another season?

An excellent question.  If so and you toss Oliver in with the rest of the haul, the deal looks even better.

I am sad to see Alvarez gone as well, but this does mitigate concerns about his having been rushed to the bigs.  4 years of control vs. 6 is a significant difference.  If we can keep the Lansing 2 in the minors until they are as ready as possible, we should be laughing. 

Exactly. You, nor I, are actually paying anything for these contracts. So each players salary should be look at as a % of the budget. $20MM of $80MM is a lot different than $20MM of $120-$150MM.

Truthfully, I don't think we gave up THAT much as far as prospects go. Again, if our system looked like it did 5 years ago, then this would be a true roll of the dice. But when you have the pitching depth that the Jays have (especially at lower levels, which is where they gave them up), and you still have Gose behind Colby in the CF depth chart, it doesn't look so bad. We still have a lot of talent pitching potentially coming in 2-3 years, not too mention Hutch, Drabek in 6-12 months.

I could not be more happier, we just went from a Top 23 Payroll Team to a Top 7-10 Payroll team. I'm not too sure how else we were going to land this amount of talent, for this amount of money, and only give up we gave up. Interested to see what happens with LF/2B/DH/1B, if anything. But we should have quite the pent up demand for Summer 2013 in Canada.

Here's hoping that we can flip JPA for a 1B or LF bat, and then I'm fine with getting creative with our bench to fill the remaining holes.

Good trade. 

In the end, prospects are prospects.  Jake M might be regretted, but we already have Gose.  Nicolini might be regretted, but we also have Sanchez and Synderguard. But...They might not be.  The Jays have a deep system, but need some help in the majors now.  This makes them a contender (assuming another small piece or two are coming yet).

This reminds me of the Pat Gillick days.  He loaded up the minor leagues, but we didn't see them too often.  They would always be shuffled off for peices in the major leagues.

The only thing I don't like about this is that it doesn't fill the starting rotation yet(I see Happ as a #6) and it doesn't solve the 1b problem.  But I can live with Lind at 1st and I think there are a lot of pitchers the Jays can pick up for experiments.

The players would have taken a tax hit if they were traded to a team in a high tax state like California or New York as well.

"....If ownership thinks that this trade is enough and isn't spending a cent more, it probably is a bad idea...."

Wow. The payroll jumps spectacularly to nearly $120-million and some people are still grouching that the Jays aren't doing enough.

If the Jays solve LF and DH with trades, I have a feeling that some people will still complain that those cheapskate Jays failed to spend "a cent more" on their payroll.

You really need to stop creating narratives in your head to argue with, China Fan. Your response has nothing to do with your quote of Mike Green. He wasn't grouching that the Jays aren't doing enough; he was evaluating the deal in a variety of possible contexts, and I agree with him. Ricciardi (Godfrey?) gave Vernon Wells his contract in an environment where the Jays were costing Rogers over 120m CDN per season. Had he known that wouldn't continue it's unlikely he commits to owing one player a quarter of his available payroll, which was the case when he arrived and had to trade off Delgado. This trade was a very positive step, but only if it signals a willingness by Rogers to spend something more in line with their market model for all the years that the team is committed to Buehrle & Reyes.

We could send JPA, Lind and a couple million and probably land Derek Holland. That would relegate HApp to swingman, at least initially.

I'd send JPA, Lind, AND Happ if it landed them Holland and got rid of Lind's committment. That would require more of a future committment but free up 5m for 2013 that could be very well spent in the bullpen/outfield.

Jose Reyes is a significant upgrade on Yunel Escobar - they both have their strengths and weaknesses - he's a significant upgrade on Yunel.  Voices were adamant that Escobar must go - guess what.   Adeiny Hechavarria was not seen as "the answer" to our Short Stop needs.  There must have been doubts about his future with the Club - he was traded.  I'm surprised we got as much value as we did for him.   Both players are a natural fit for Miami and the Stadium`s location.

Josh Johnson, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in the game - when healthy.   How he pitches, determines his value next contract.   If he can't be re-signed, then A.A. could make his first Qualifying Offer.  Next June, draft picks earned from Qualifying Offers occur after Pick 37 - only 9 Qualifying Offers were made.  This is the only way A.A. could ever get an extra draft pick, so I can't see him signing anyone that could cost him a draft pick.  If J.J. accepts the offer, maybe a long-term contract ensues.   This is my Opening Day Starter.

Mark Buehrle is the veteran Starter A.A. was after.  He makes 30+ starts, pitches 200+ innings, wins 13+ games, in under 3 hours each game, each year.  What more can you ask for, he's my #2 Starter.

Emilio Bonifacio is my starting 2B mainly because he plays so well with Reyes, and that's my top 2 in the Lineup - they've got so much speed.   John Buck acquisition, this early in the offseason, offers A.A. options - J.P. Arencibia is a top trade piece.   With Buck, Bobby Wilson, then d'Arnaud, then Jimenez as our catching depth, J.P. could be moved.

Henderson Alvarez is another perfect fit for that Team and Stadium, as he`ll start for them this season.  Justin Nicolino will start very soon for the Marlins, that`s how they work.

If you include, a year early, the $25.0 MM boost everyone is getting in 2014 on the new TV deal, the $10.0 MM earned from increased Attendance (400K more) and an "assumed Budget" of $85.0 MM, the total is $120.0 MM.   So did Roger`s opened their wallet or was this increase normal?   I expect Attendance to increase ($10.0 MM per 400K in Fans) enough to fund this adventure.   If $120.0 MM is this years cap, it`s unlikely A.A. takes on much  salary without moving salary or getting money back in the trade.  If you add up Guarenteed Salaries (including players who were on 60-day DL at season end): $101.4 MM; Pre Arb Salaries: 3.0 MM; Arby Salaries: $14.0 MM: you get a total of  approximately $118.4 MM.  Or a difference of $2.6 MM under the Cap.   Now cash came back and it`s possible it was more than the $4.0 MM initially reported.   At a minimum, A.A has $6.6 MM left to spend.

I`m not happy with Adam Lind as D.H. and 1B backup, but I can`t see this being improved unless Lind is traded.

I'd send JPA, Lind, AND Happ if it landed them Holland and got rid of Lind's committment

I'd like to keep Happ for depth.  Janssen might be a good candidate for that trade, though.  We could send a few dollars as well.

I was initially concerned about Buehrle, who has talked about his interest in early retirement before and when he was a free agent held a great deal of importance to location, location, location. He's a good southern boy with a big heart and little interest in making a living north of the mason-dixon line, let alone the 49th. He looks to me like a prime candidate to be a sourpuss about coming here.

Then there's Reyes, and how is mr. hamstrings going to embrace a 5-year term on the artificial spaces of Rogers Yard? He talked when he was signed of how important joining the large spanish community was to him (which granted may not be as important to him as it was something nice to say) but I suspect he's got reservations about coming here. Pretty sure he'd much prefer someplace really hot, but I have hope he will be a consummate professional.

And now to top the list of concerns is Josh Johnson. I'm not sure if anyone else is noticing this but his agent went on Jeff Blair's show today and effectively demanded a trade from the Jays. Johnson's agent says "I feel like there has to be another piece to this trade." And further he adds, "There are so many teams that are interested in Josh Johnson that if the Yankees or Texas or some of these teams looking for a frontline starter wanted to give up a tonne, it would seem like it would be against the way that Alex normally does business to not listen and make a trade if he could acquire a bunch of top prospects for one of the players in this deal."

Read between the lines it says : MY CLIENT WANTS TO BE TRADED FROM THIS FORSAKEN PLACE. Or: "my client will not be spending his free agent year performing in this little market. Call us when you have the next trade lined up."

If this trade is going to work out well, it may be that those three big pieces must be flipped. Or one will not try, one will retire and one will spend most of the time on the DL not wanting to do more, and it's a big disaster.

Read between the lines it says : MY CLIENT WANTS TO BE TRADED FROM THIS FORSAKEN PLACE. Or: "my client will not be spending his free agent year performing in this little market. Call us when you have the next trade lined up."

Not to put words in AA's mouth, but "when your client's a free agent, he can sign with whomever he chooses."

I'm just saying it's enough to give pause about whether he'll be committed to playing for the Jays until he makes a statement that he will do just that. When's the press conference going to happen to introduce everybody?

You need to read or listen to the entire segment.  I don't think it is possible to turn those comments into "MY CLIENT WANTS..." etc.

I do think he's right that another trade is coming (obviously we are going to deal a catcher), but if we deal a starter it will be Buerhle, not Johnson.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Buerhle go to a Detroit or Texas in exchange for a younger SP, and AA continues to pursue a veteran arm (such as a Marcum or McCarthy).

The FAN played that stupid clip from Johnson's agent over and over again yesterday in their updates without giving it the proper context. The agent suggested that possible further moves could be made because AA is always willing to listen to offers.  Heck if Texas comes back and offers Profar and Holland for one year of JJ, it would be hard to say no. 

Absolutely.  Johnson is by far and away the one of the "big 3" coming in that I am least worried about convincing to want to play here.

I assume that Reyes will be fine after a chat with some other members of the team.  Buerhle is the one I am most concerned about, but also the one that I am least concerned about flipping.  Someone said Smyly/Dirks above...I'd probably take Smyly straight up for Buerhle and reinvest the monetary savings into a Marcum/McCarthy type anyways.

Come on Moe, you can't believe what losers say after they lost.  Boston wanted these guys and they didn't get them.  So what do they say to their fans when they can't pull the trigger?  It is "we didn't really want them" or "we weren't going to pay that much".  As a Jays fan you must recognize that approach. 

Don't pay attention to the losers, they are biased.

The odds are pretty good that Nicolino or Alvarez or Marisnick will be a valuable major league player in three-four years and decent that one of them is one of the 15-20 most valuable properties in baseball at that point.

While it's hard to quantify what you mean by decent, I think the odds are extremely slim that any of those 3  are one of the top assets in baseball.

I was obviously happy seeing that Nicolino was the pitching prospect they gave up in this deal, as per the discussion on Nicolino during the prospect rankings.

The odds are pretty good that Nicolino or Alvarez or Marisnick will be a valuable major league player in three-four years and decent that one of them is one of the 15-20 most valuable properties in baseball at that point.

if Texas comes back and offers Profar and Holland for one year of JJ, it would be hard to say no. 

If that were to happen, AA better not say no.

Henderson Alvarez will be a Starter in 2013, probably using a "new" pitch to make him more effective in the N.L.   He could be an effective regular for Miami for a number of years.   He just wasn't that "teachable" last season, which should improve in 2013.   I just can't see Justin Nicolino not Starting for Miami late this coming season or early in the next.   That's generally what "bottom feeding" teams like Miami prefer to do, rushing players.   Anthony Desclafani might be an effective MLB pitcher and Miami should give him the chance in 2-3 years, if he stays effective.

Yunel Escobar will enjoy Miami, and still is a quality SS with a team-friendly contract.   He will be in demand as the SS market is lacking in quality.   Whether he's dealt or not isn't important to us - just interesting.   Adeiny Hechavarria should be a Star there, whether he hits well or not.  He will be highly promoted in that market and should do well.

Jeff Mathis has a very friendly contract.   He's an ideal backup with a young Catcher and he's capable of carrying a team for a time.   His trade gives A.A. options he didn't have before.

Jake Marisnick is a superb athelete, but is he a baseball player?   It's possible, he just needs "the light to turn on" to be an effective MBL player.   I think Miami did very well with their acquisitions - Alvarez, Escobar (if not traded), Hechavarria and Mathis can play now, Nicolino soon, Desclafani and Marisnick in a few years.  All three become top Marlins prospects and very tradable assets.

Why is it, that every move and non-move A.A. makes is dissected and disparaged by some posters without appreciating what has happened?   Justification for the "rightness" of a stance is usually accompanied by the flimsiest of support.   Sometime it discusses the future, which is nebulous at it's best.   Let's wait until fact and fiction are more fact and less fiction. 

Henderson Alvarez will be a Starter in 2013, probably using a "new" pitch to make him more effective in the N.L.

If you assume (as I've proposed earlier) an estimated cap of $120.0 MM, it easier to estimate what A.A. has left to work with.   If Darren Oliver doesn't retire, A.A. has roughly $6.5 MM to spend.   If Darren Oliver does retire, A.A. has roughly $9.0 MM to spend.

If that money coming from Miami is $8.0 MM and not $4.0 MM, things change.   A.A. will have about $10.5 MM or $13.0 MM to spend - that significant.   J.P. Arencibia is a valuable asset in a trade.   Adam Lind has no value.   Colby Rasmus has value, but only for a top CF stud coming back.   J.A. Happ is a valuable asset in a trade, but only for a better Starter coming back.

Unless more magic happens, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind share 1B and DH; and, Emilio Bonifacio (LF/CF/RF/2B/SS/3B) and Macier Izturis (2B/SS/3B) share 2B and Middle Infielder (Bench).   There is a need for a quality LF and  an opening for another multiposition bench player or conversely a quality 2B. 

Melky Cabrera and Ike Davis would both be excellent additions.  Arencibia+ for Ike Davis works for me, depending on who the other guys we give up would be.  Maybe they'd like to take David Cooper to be their first baseman, and I think that he would do well in the NL.

Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista, Encarnacion, I.Davis, Lawrie, Rasmus, Buck, Izturis.  Wilson, Bonifacio, R.Davis, and some 4th guy on the bench.  D'Arnaud arrives during the season to provide some fun young guy heroics at catcher.  Now that's a playoff lineup.    

• Farrell going: 164 posts
• Advance Scout for Mariners series: 161 due to Snider & Thames being traded
• My Kingdom for a Starter: 217 posts - the week from hell when we lost 3 starters (Hutchison, Drabek, Morrow).
• 2012 Draft Recap and Signings: 281 posts

I still see him as a 3/4 behind JJ and Morrow. Rickey is obviously the X factor but regardless with Happ/Francis/Whoever I'm happy that we have a shot to win each and every night out there.

I'm getting a little (a lot) ahead of myself now but with the season opening at home vs. the Indians and then vs. the Sox on the 1st weekend what do you all see the rotation looking like? I'd obviously love to see JJ starting the Opener, and then Morrow the second. But to take the pressure off Ricky a bit and to possibly have him start out against the Indians instead of the Sox (who he's had some troubles against) I'd look at starting Ricky on Thursday and then bringing Buehlre out to start on the Friday Night.

That Friday night is goign to be PACKED and will probably have a Home Opener feel to it. With JF coming back and all. I can't wait to hear the crowd's reaction.

There are many people that posted "Why don't the Jays just use the money to sign the free agents last year?"

This is based on the assumption that players want to play in Toronto.  Players want to goto a winner and there are issues with Toronto (Taxes, it is cold and it is another country!).  Thus the only way the Jays could ever get a a player like Reyes is to trade for him.

This tells the baseball world, the Jays are back to contending!  Free agents, please apply.