Morosi tweets Anibal Sanchez is looking for 6/$90m.  Wilner blogs  that Arencibia plus something might get us Jon Niese.

Some starters' xFIP over the past 3 yrs (minimum 450 IP):

1. Cliff Lee 2.93
2. Roy Halladay 2.96
3. King Felix 3.16
4. Zack Greinke 3.17
13. David Price 3.42
19. Dan Haren 3.56
19. Hiroki Kuroda 3.56
21. Jon Niese 3.58
22. RA Dickey 3.63
22. Anibal Sanchez 3.63
24. Brandon Morrow 3.65
26. Gio Gonzalez 3.72
26. Ricky Nolasco 3.72
26. Matt Garza 3.72
29. Ryan Dempster 3.74

I believe what Blair said was that Marcum was optioned to Vegas midseason because he had become too big for his britches, or something of that sort.

Now that you mention it he did say something like that but I don't see the evidence.  He pitched all season at the major league level in 2010 and was injured all of 2009 but did have some rehab starts in the minors including LV at the end of the season.  He did appear in LV in 2008 for a couple of starts but he also appeared in Dunedin so they look like rehab starts since he was on the DL from June 21-July 22, 2008..  In 2007 he spent the whole year in the majors.  2006 was split between Syracuse and Toronto.  Sounds like Blair made that part up.

You wonder if, for some pitchers, if there may be something systemic leading to an ERA/FIP variation, and not solely the vagaries of random chance.

For Morrow, prior to 2012, he pitched very well with no one on base and not so well with men on base. His gap in these two scenarios was greater than that for most pitchers resulting in better FIPs than ERAs. Was this gap the product of random chance or was there something concrete behind this (a mechanical flaw pitching from the stretch, say)? For his career:

bases empty:  659 OPS
men on: 746 OPS
RISP: 745 OPS

Conversely, consider Jim Palmer. He pitched almost 400 innings with a 2.86 ERA and a 3.50 FIP (25% worse). His splits explain, mathematically, why this is so:

bases empty:  641 OPS
men on: 622 OPS
RISP: 597 OPS

What the hell is going on here? As the stakes got higher Palmer pitched better? This covers thousands of plate appearances, so the effects of chance were greatly tempered. Was Palmer able to somehow be better with men on base? If so, why wouldn't he just summon that mojo all the time?

All of this is to say that while it may be tempting to simply assume that a pitcher's ERA will eventually fall in line with his FIP or xFIP, maybe this isn't the case. Maybe there are pitchers who will consistently underperform or overperform their FIP/xFIP.

Just using select items from ...the actual quote from Davidi's story:

"... seem inclined... ...more of a wait-and-see approach with left field... ...it’s more of a sit back and maybe let it come to us a little more."

I don't see how these key items from the article suggest in any way that the Blue Jays will do something definite.

Anyone paying attention, to date, knows A.A.'s priority acquisitions this Offseason will be Starting Pitching (suggesting more than one), and then Left Field, and then 2B.  The Free Agent List is full of good outfielders (MLB Trade Rumors has 58 listed) and some not as good.   What's the rush.

A.A. has enough top prospects and other top values to make a big trade for a Pitcher, but until he knows who goes, he can't make any other trade for top players.   I suspect A.A. has "the extra $25.0 Million" everyone else is spending, plus whatever his "budget" is.   He has enough money for a major acquisition on the Free Agent Market, but until he knows how much will be spent, he won't know who else to sign.

With the acquisition of power arms Esmil Rogers and Jeremy Jefferies, the Bullpen is set with Santos, Janssen and Delabar being joined with two of: Brad Lincoln (does he have an option left?), Darren Oliver (if he returns), Aaron Loup (has option left) and Brett Cecil.   Then there's the signing of Justin Germano to a Minor League contract with an invite to Spring Training.

Unless something magic happens, the infield is set with signing of Maicer Izturis at 2B.  D.H. is to be Adam Lind as he is still under contract (until traded).   The Outfield might be filled in-house, but unlikely.  The Rotation has the biggest holes.   On the bright side, there's still four months until Pitchers and Catchers Report.

He didn't, actually.

He did, actually. Clarence sent Marcum to Syracuse on August 23rd with one week left in the minor league season. Wilner intimated at the time that there was a disciplinary measure involved, and that makes sense considering the circumstances.

This thread http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2008082305050381 may help serve as a reminder.

Re: Marcum

In 2005: 158.0 (combined) IP.       In 2006: 131.0 IP.       In 2007: 159.0 IP.       In 2008:  168.1 IP.       In 2009: 15.2 IP.       In 2010: 195.1 IP.       In 2011: 200.2 IP.       In 2012: 136.2 IP.

Aside from Cito's discipline, Marcum had injury issues.   Otherwise 2006: 178.0 IP, followed by 198.0 IP; or following 2007, in 2008: 179.0 IP.     In 2009: oops 15.2 IP (had TJ). 

I would like my Starters to be healthier.   Signing Shaun Marcum must be Plan E.

For an "innings eater" starter hopefully we can sign a middling guy like Scott Baker, if a guy like this slides under the radar and ends up being available for a good value contract.  This type of move would help us, while also leaving some money to address other areas.

For a frontline starter I think we should explore trades.  Perhaps Arencibia+ for Jon Niese or RA Dickey.  Pursuing a move like that is more realistic for us that getting in a bidding war for Anibal Sanchez or any other "name" guy on the FA market.  I suppose it depends on what's out there in the trade market though.

Morrow, Niese, Baker, Romero, Alvarez or Happ.  Something like that would work while also fitting into our buget for this offseason.

If Marcum isn't plan A then the Jays will get nothing. And by nothing I mean not one above average starter via free agency. So if you are not spending every hour praying for Marcum you are wasting your time.

All other starters will obviously come at a very steep cost to our organization, as evidenced by the Gio and Latos trades of last year.

This year he's willing - to pay the price. 

If Marcum is the best Pitcher the Blue Jays can get, I will take nothing instead.   I want someone better than Morrow and Romero as the Team's long-term acquisition (3 or more years).  

A.A. said (I can't remember which PTS) he had the pieces to acquire Gonzales, but was unwilling to meet the price.   This year he's willing.   A.A. has said he's willing to move someone off the Major League roster in a trade.   Toronto has J.P. Arencibia, Jeff Mathis, Bobby Wilson at the MLB level with Travis d'Arnaud, MLB-ready with A.J. Jimenez close by.   One of Arencibia or d'Arnaud could be moved in a trade, neither being a crushing loss.   Toronto has Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, Rajai Davis at the MLB level with Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra, MLB-ready with Jake Marisnik close by.   One or more of Rasmus, Gose, Sierra, Marisnik could be moved in a trade, without incurring a crushing loss.   Toronto has Yunel Escobar, Maicer Izturis at the MLB level with Adeiny Hechavarria, MLB-ready with no one right close by.   One of Escobar or Hechavarria could be moved in a trade, without incurring a crushing loss. 

A.A. has said he's willing to trade on of the "Big Three" and other top prospects in a trade.   This year, he's willing.   Toronto has Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino as their best pitching prospects (with some Teams these guys are 1 year away, for other Teams, more than 1 and still others, 3 or more).   One of these three could be moved in a trade, without incurring a crushing loss.   There are still others from the minors,Osuna, Stroman, Davis, Stilson, Norris an more who will be of interest to other Teams.  One or more of these could be moved in a trade, without incurring a crushing loss.

A.A. has said he has more money to spend, also saying it has a limit.   A.A. has his "budget", which I believe is enough to cover raises for existing Roster players.   It is enough for inexpensive acquisitions to fill holes, with a small contingency for "just in case".   So a signing like Izturis is factored in.   A.A. will never tell you what that number(s) is.   Attendance was up this year, around 400,000 fans, approximately $10.0 MM more in revenue earned.  With an extra $25.0 MM per team in TV revenue being available next year (2014), most teams are willing to spend that money starting one year earlier.   Now A.A. has more money to spend.  Is it the full $35.0 MM?   Maybe, he'll never say.   He has a lot of holes to fill and upgrades to make, so he'll work with what he has.

To live in a world, where the Team's major acquisition is Shaun Marcum, must be a scary place.   If he's a third pitcher acquired and our 4th or 5th Starter, I'll accept that.  I'll take 1) New Acquisition, 2) New Acquisition, 3) Morrow, 4) Romero, 5) Marcum anytime.

Or the idea that signing a pitcher who hasn't had an ERA over 3.70 (or an ERA+ under 110) in his last four seasons of at least 20 starts as a number five starter is merely acceptable.

To live in a world, where the Team's major acquisition is Shaun Marcum, must be a scary place.   If he's a third pitcher acquired and our 4th or 5th Starter, I'll accept that.   

I'll take 1) New Acquisition, 2) New Acquisition, 3) Morrow, 4) Romero, 5) Marcum anytime.

Line 1): This is a comment about Marcum being our only acquisition.

Line 2): This is MY idea of what I would like to see.

It's possible, but unlikely Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, David Price might be traded.   Anyone can be acquired if you meet their price.   There are whispers out there that suggest it to be possible / being considered.   A.A. knows who's available, he asks about everyone,  people talk to him because he says nothing, treats everyone with respect, so he's trusted.   I still like to dream, magic still happens, but baring that I'll wait for A.A. to do his thing. 

The idea that we are getting 2 starters better than Romero and Morrow is a bit crazy.  The last top pitcher that I can remember that the acquired was Roger Clemens. And that is only one guy. 

I might be a bit negative when it comes to the ownership, but I don't see it happening.

I have no more idea than do all of those who pretend they know that Darvish would have come to Canada whether he would have or not.

There's no reason to think Darvish would've turned down an offer from the Jays to play in Major League Baseball. I have no idea what the Canadian tax situation has to do with a player who wasn't a FA and was getting a pay raise no matter which MLB team he winded up with or how much taxes he was required to pay.

but because buying guys like this is a way of team-cripplihg rather than building.

The Giants have been so crippled by the Zito contract that they've won 2 of the last 3 World Series.

Remember how crippling the Vernon contract was for the Jays, and how that was repeatedly given as an excuse as to why this team couldn't contend? Well, the Jays traded away their 2nd best hitter so Rogers could save some money.