Snakes and Ladders is a board game from my distant youth; I use it to
identify those teams that improved by 10 games (climbing the ladder) or
declined by 10 (slipping down the snakes.)
This was a fairly typical season in the majors on the Snakes and Ladders front: six teams slipped down the snakes, while five of them were climbing the ladders. That's an exact mirror of the year before, when five were going down and six were climbing up. It comes nowhere near the utter insanity of 2009 (eight teams climbed the Ladders, ten teams slipped down the Snakes), which probably had something to do with 2010 being rather quiet on this front (three teams down the Snakes, four teams climbed the Ladders.)
SNAKES
Boston -21
No team fell further than the Red Sox, and no one shed any tears over it. The problems on the mound were easy to identify. The Red Sox allowed 69 more runs this past season, and that can be laid almost entirely at the door of Jon Lester and Josh Becket. In 2011, those two pitched 384.2 IP and allowed 142 runs; this past season they allowed 192 runs in just 332.1 IP. Still, most of Boston's collapse was because of the bats - the Red Sox scored 141 fewer runs than they had in 2011. David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury missed 160 games between them, and Ellsbury wasn't very good when he was in the lineup. Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia were still decent players, but both slipped considerably from the previous season. I think there's an assumption that the Red Sox will put things right and be back in the hunt next season. I'm not so sure. You can come down the mountain much faster than you went up - but when you fall that way, it's pretty difficult to hop back to your feet. I think there's a good chance John Farrell's going to regret this...
Philadelphia -21
The Phillies fell off by just as many games as the Red Sox, and their problems were almost entirely on the pitcher's mound. They scored 29 fewer runs than in 2011, which didn't help - but they allowed 151 more runs than the previous season. No one survives that - no other pitching staff came close to such a collapse. Roy Halladay's troubles - he gave up 13 more runs in 78 fewer innings - obviously didn't help. But the damage was spread out pretty evenly among the whole staff. Everybody chipped in, Everybody gave up more runs than they did the year before - even men like Hamels and Lee, who actually pitched quite well in 2012, weren't as good as they the year before. It was a true team effort. I suppose everyone expected the Phillies stubborn commitment to the Old and Expensive to turn around and bite them in the hindquarters eventually. Maybe no one saw it coming quite this fast, but you know what? It usually happens pretty fast, and it usually takes some time to recover.
Milwaukee -13
These next two teams fell pretty far, but in both cases it was more a matter of their luck running out than real decline. Milwaukee's win total dropped from 96 to 83; but their Expected wins only fell from 91 to 86. They were lucky in 2011, they were unlucky (and a little worse) in 2012. This was entirely on the pitching. Despite losing Prince Fielder, the Brewers' offense improved significantly this year - they led the NL in runs scored (they were 5th in 2011.) But they allowed 95 more runs than they had the previous season, and this was mainly because of the arsonists living in the Milwaukee bullpen, who allowed 105 more runs than Milwaukee relievers did in 2011.
Arizona -13
The Snakes did almost the same stuff on the field as they had the previous season - they scored 3 more runs, they allowed 26 more. What happened? Their luck changed. That is all. They were extremely fortunate in the close games in 2011 (they went 28-16) and extremely unfortunate in the same games this year (15-27). Same team, same manager, same offensive production, same pitching performance.
Cleveland -12)
The Indians went right off the cliff in 2012, and they were lucky indeed to win as many games as they did. Not that they actually won very many games. The offense was a little worse (37 fewer runs scored) and the pitching was a lot worse. The Indians allowed 85 more runs than they did in 2011. No AL pitching staff declined more than Cleveland's, only Boston's even came close.
Chicago Cubs -10
The Cubs won 10 fewer games en route to a grisly 61-101 mark, but they really weren't a whole lot worse than they were the previous year. Their pitching, such as it was, repeated the preious year's performance and they lost a little offense (41 fewer runs scored.) There was a mild Pythagorean Swing at work here. It wasn't as large as what happened to Milwaukee and Arizona, but it was the same the same thing nevertheless. Like the Brewers and D'Backs, the Cubs won a couple more games in 2011 than you would expect from their runs scored and allowed, and won a few fewer this past year.
In fact, Colorado, Texas and the Yankees all had a greater decline in the relationship between their runs scored and allowed than Milwaukee, Arizona, or the Cubs. Those teams just didn't fall by as many games in the standings.
LADDERS
Baltimore +24
Thanks to their phenomenal record in one-run games, the Orioles were the biggest over-achievers in all of baseball this past season. But they were, quite legitimately, the most improved team in the major leagues. This would be true even if they had posted the 82-80 mark that makes more sense with their runs scored (712) and allowed (705.) The Orioles improvement happened entirely on the pitcher's mound - they scored just 4 more runs than they had in 2011. But they shaved the other team's scoring by a whopping 155 runs (team ERA went from 4.89 to 3.90). That's about one run a game, which is a lot - and indeed, the Orioles produced a positive swing of 159 runs.
Oakland +20
The A's 133 run improvement (second best in the AL) was divided almost exactly between the offense (68 more runs scored) and the defense (65 fewer runs allowed.)
Washington +18
While Gonzalez, Strasburg, and Detwiler were certainly an upgrade over Lannan, Wang, and Hernandez, that wasn't the biggest part of the Washington story. While the Nats allowed 49 fewer runs this year, they scored 107 more than they had in 2011. That's swinging 156 runs in the right direction, second only to Baltimore. They didn't gain quite as many games from it as Oakland did, but I suspect that's because they were starting from 80 wins instead of 74 (and Oakland was a little unluicky to have only won 74 games in 2011.) The offensive improvement wasn't so much because of guys stepping up and having big years; instead they simply took ABs away from the bad hitters, especially in the outfield.
Cincinnati +18
Like Washington, the Reds won 18 more games than they had in 2011. But while the Nats did it by swinging 156 runs in their favour, the Reds did it by swinging just 66 runs - less than half what Washington did - in their favour. And wouldn't you know it - half of Cincinnati's improvement was Pythagorean Swing - they were unlucky in 2011 (by about 3 games) and lucky (by about 6 games) in 2012. Their offense actually took a dive in 2012, scoring 66 fewer runs than in 2011. Only the Red Sox and Mets offenses took a bigger tumble. But they reduced their opponents scoring almost as much as Baltimore did, shaving 132 runs from the opposition. It was by far the biggest such improement in the NL.The bullpen went from good to phenomenal, they got a full year out of Johnny Cueto, they added Matt Latos, and they got 200 quality innings from two guys (Arroyo and Bailey) who'd been pretty crummy the year before.
The Cincinnati story leads me to digress on the ever-present tendency to confuse indicators of possible future value with markers of genuine present value. If in 2012 some imaginary great hitter had lost 30 hits on line drives into infielders' gloves, while some merely decent hitter picked up 30 hits on routine grounders that found a hole - there's a pretty good chance the merely decent hitter was the more valuable player. He was the better hitter. He probably won't be better in 2013, but we're not always talking about next year. A weak grounder through the hole is much, much better than a screaming line drive into a fielder's glove in the game you're playing that day. The same thing applies to pitchers, of course. Strikeouts are certainly an excellent indicator of future goodness - but in the game or the year just gone by, long fly balls and hard liners that find gloves are usually every bit as good. When you're looking at the year that just happened, you don't always want to get distracted by what it suggests about the years going forward. That said: while Cincinnati won 18 more games this past year than they did in 2011, we all know that the circumstances were rather unusual. A 66 run improvement is nothing to sneeze at, but it doesn't normally lead to 18 more wins. You might even want to say that there were four teams that made bigger improvements on the field than Cincinnati, although it couldn't even buy them 10 more wins than it did the year before.
Of course, one of those team's was San Francisco, who just won their second World Series in three years. The Giants allowed 71 more runs this past season than they did the year before, but they more than made up for it with the bats, as they scored 148 more runs. Whoa. No major league offense improved as much as San Francisco from 2011 to 2012. All told, they swung 77 runs in their favour, and went from 86 wins to 94. Curiously, in both seasons they won about 5 more games than you would expect from their runs scored and allowed. I was cheering for them this October. They're not going to be in the post-season next year. (Just thought I'd throw that out there!)
There was some optimism in Pittsburgh for the first time in decades this past summer. You may recall that in late July, after 100 games, they were 16 games over .500 (58-42) and just 2 games out of first place. Ah, but then they traded Brad Lincoln... . Well, I don't really think that's why they went 21-41 from that point forward. Anyway, the Bucs' runs scored and allowed was better by 79 runs, an improvement divided evenly between the offense (41 runs better) and the defense (38 runs better). What interests me about the Pirates is that they have the makings of a pretty solid looking lineup if they can just do something about the two ugly gaping holes dragging the team down. Those holes are behind the plate and at shortstop, where Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes have gone over the hill and are tumbling uncontrollably down the far side. Now catcher and shortstop are generally very tough holes to fill, but I can think of at least one team that may have an excess at both of those positions...
Seattle was also quite a bit better this past season, but when you go from 67 wins to 75 no one cares very much.
And the great invisible leap forward this past season? The White Sox. They stumbled at the end, and Detroit blew by them - but while the White Sox could only improve their W-L record from 79 wins to 85, they made some pretty impressive progress on the field. Mostly with the bats - they reduced opposition scoring by 30 runs, while improving their own output by 94 runs. It was the second biggest offensive improvement in the AL. It was mostly veteran bats - Rios, Dunn, Pierzynski - bouncing back from disastrous years to have solid to good seasons. Not giving Juan Pierre more than 700 plate appearances also helped. They weren't an unlucky team, although they did waste some of this offensive goodness while beating the other guiys senseless - the Sox went 26-16 in blowouts. But beating the other guys to a pulp is a sign of quality. I'd be pretty optimistic about them next season if it weren't for the fact that their four best players are all on the wrong side of 30.
Well, here's some random stuff I should put somewhere...
Offense in the AL was down a fraction this season, from 4.46 in 2011 to 4.45 this past year. In the league's 110 year history, this was a middle of the road season. It ranks 62nd in runs per game, behind 2010 and ahead of 1955.
Offense in the NL picked up a little this year, going from 4.13 runs per game to 4.22 - this seasons ranks 72nd in the NL's 120 years (since the move to 60 feet 6 inches). In 71st place was 1979, in 73rd was 1990.
The best place to hit in the major leagues this season? Well, it was Coors Field. What did you expect? Things were a little stranger in the AL in 2012. I give you a Data Table for both leagues:
While Texas remains a great place to hit, it came back to earth this year after doing a pretty credible Coors imitation in 2011. US Cellular in Chicago was the best offensive park in the AL in 2012, but just a year earlier the White Sox had scored and allowed more runs in their road games than they had at home. The White Sox have now pllayed 22 seasons there, and 10 times the White Sox saw more runs scoring in their road games. It's a variable park. Some of them are like that. Kaufman Field in Kansas City swings wildly from one season to the next - in 2003, it was the second best hitting environment the AL has seen in the past ten years (behind only Arlington in 2011), and it was also a great park for offense in 2006. But in 2004 and 2008 it played as one of the best pitcher's parks in the league.
As you can see, the most neutral AL parks in terms of runs scored were the Rogers Centre and the new Yankee Stadium. I trust no one is surprised that the best places to pitch are generally on the west coast. This is true in both leagues, by the way.
What happened in Pittsburgh looks like very much like a one-year fluke. Like I say, these things happen. Since opening for business, the Pirates new stadium has given us three four year cycles of utterly perfectly symmetry: it plays as a hitters park for two years and then as a pitchers park for two years. The Offensive Factors have ranged from 0.90 to 1.12 until this year's strange showing. As 2012 was the second year of the Pirates third four-year cycle, a hitters year is due for th park next season.
I also think that what's happened in San Francisco these last two years may be a bit of a fluke as well. It's been almost impossible to score runs there the past two seasons but it simply wasn't always this way. While AT&T/Pac Bell played as an extreme pitcher's park in its first three seasons, since then it had been fairly neutral in its impact on runs scored. There was more offense in Giants' home games than road games in 2004, 2008, 2009 and it was as close to neutral as a park could be in 2006 and 2007. I end up wondering how much these wide swings from one season to the next have to do with the weather - San Francisco certainly has lots of that. As you can see, its overall Offensive Factor is 0.95 over the last ten years - and it's entirely the last two seasons that drag it away from perfect neutrality. Over its entire history, it's had an Offensive Factor of 0.92, which is nowhere near Petco's 0.81 overall, and 2012 was just business as usual in San Diego. The Padres home park remains the greatest pitcher's park in the history of the game.
Here's a larger table covering the past ten years for all current parks, not all of which have been open for the entire period. They're listed in order of how hospitable they've been to the hitters.
I think that's a wrap...
This was a fairly typical season in the majors on the Snakes and Ladders front: six teams slipped down the snakes, while five of them were climbing the ladders. That's an exact mirror of the year before, when five were going down and six were climbing up. It comes nowhere near the utter insanity of 2009 (eight teams climbed the Ladders, ten teams slipped down the Snakes), which probably had something to do with 2010 being rather quiet on this front (three teams down the Snakes, four teams climbed the Ladders.)
SNAKES
Boston -21
No team fell further than the Red Sox, and no one shed any tears over it. The problems on the mound were easy to identify. The Red Sox allowed 69 more runs this past season, and that can be laid almost entirely at the door of Jon Lester and Josh Becket. In 2011, those two pitched 384.2 IP and allowed 142 runs; this past season they allowed 192 runs in just 332.1 IP. Still, most of Boston's collapse was because of the bats - the Red Sox scored 141 fewer runs than they had in 2011. David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury missed 160 games between them, and Ellsbury wasn't very good when he was in the lineup. Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia were still decent players, but both slipped considerably from the previous season. I think there's an assumption that the Red Sox will put things right and be back in the hunt next season. I'm not so sure. You can come down the mountain much faster than you went up - but when you fall that way, it's pretty difficult to hop back to your feet. I think there's a good chance John Farrell's going to regret this...
Philadelphia -21
The Phillies fell off by just as many games as the Red Sox, and their problems were almost entirely on the pitcher's mound. They scored 29 fewer runs than in 2011, which didn't help - but they allowed 151 more runs than the previous season. No one survives that - no other pitching staff came close to such a collapse. Roy Halladay's troubles - he gave up 13 more runs in 78 fewer innings - obviously didn't help. But the damage was spread out pretty evenly among the whole staff. Everybody chipped in, Everybody gave up more runs than they did the year before - even men like Hamels and Lee, who actually pitched quite well in 2012, weren't as good as they the year before. It was a true team effort. I suppose everyone expected the Phillies stubborn commitment to the Old and Expensive to turn around and bite them in the hindquarters eventually. Maybe no one saw it coming quite this fast, but you know what? It usually happens pretty fast, and it usually takes some time to recover.
Milwaukee -13
These next two teams fell pretty far, but in both cases it was more a matter of their luck running out than real decline. Milwaukee's win total dropped from 96 to 83; but their Expected wins only fell from 91 to 86. They were lucky in 2011, they were unlucky (and a little worse) in 2012. This was entirely on the pitching. Despite losing Prince Fielder, the Brewers' offense improved significantly this year - they led the NL in runs scored (they were 5th in 2011.) But they allowed 95 more runs than they had the previous season, and this was mainly because of the arsonists living in the Milwaukee bullpen, who allowed 105 more runs than Milwaukee relievers did in 2011.
Arizona -13
The Snakes did almost the same stuff on the field as they had the previous season - they scored 3 more runs, they allowed 26 more. What happened? Their luck changed. That is all. They were extremely fortunate in the close games in 2011 (they went 28-16) and extremely unfortunate in the same games this year (15-27). Same team, same manager, same offensive production, same pitching performance.
Cleveland -12)
The Indians went right off the cliff in 2012, and they were lucky indeed to win as many games as they did. Not that they actually won very many games. The offense was a little worse (37 fewer runs scored) and the pitching was a lot worse. The Indians allowed 85 more runs than they did in 2011. No AL pitching staff declined more than Cleveland's, only Boston's even came close.
Chicago Cubs -10
The Cubs won 10 fewer games en route to a grisly 61-101 mark, but they really weren't a whole lot worse than they were the previous year. Their pitching, such as it was, repeated the preious year's performance and they lost a little offense (41 fewer runs scored.) There was a mild Pythagorean Swing at work here. It wasn't as large as what happened to Milwaukee and Arizona, but it was the same the same thing nevertheless. Like the Brewers and D'Backs, the Cubs won a couple more games in 2011 than you would expect from their runs scored and allowed, and won a few fewer this past year.
In fact, Colorado, Texas and the Yankees all had a greater decline in the relationship between their runs scored and allowed than Milwaukee, Arizona, or the Cubs. Those teams just didn't fall by as many games in the standings.
LADDERS
Baltimore +24
Thanks to their phenomenal record in one-run games, the Orioles were the biggest over-achievers in all of baseball this past season. But they were, quite legitimately, the most improved team in the major leagues. This would be true even if they had posted the 82-80 mark that makes more sense with their runs scored (712) and allowed (705.) The Orioles improvement happened entirely on the pitcher's mound - they scored just 4 more runs than they had in 2011. But they shaved the other team's scoring by a whopping 155 runs (team ERA went from 4.89 to 3.90). That's about one run a game, which is a lot - and indeed, the Orioles produced a positive swing of 159 runs.
Oakland +20
The A's 133 run improvement (second best in the AL) was divided almost exactly between the offense (68 more runs scored) and the defense (65 fewer runs allowed.)
Washington +18
While Gonzalez, Strasburg, and Detwiler were certainly an upgrade over Lannan, Wang, and Hernandez, that wasn't the biggest part of the Washington story. While the Nats allowed 49 fewer runs this year, they scored 107 more than they had in 2011. That's swinging 156 runs in the right direction, second only to Baltimore. They didn't gain quite as many games from it as Oakland did, but I suspect that's because they were starting from 80 wins instead of 74 (and Oakland was a little unluicky to have only won 74 games in 2011.) The offensive improvement wasn't so much because of guys stepping up and having big years; instead they simply took ABs away from the bad hitters, especially in the outfield.
Cincinnati +18
Like Washington, the Reds won 18 more games than they had in 2011. But while the Nats did it by swinging 156 runs in their favour, the Reds did it by swinging just 66 runs - less than half what Washington did - in their favour. And wouldn't you know it - half of Cincinnati's improvement was Pythagorean Swing - they were unlucky in 2011 (by about 3 games) and lucky (by about 6 games) in 2012. Their offense actually took a dive in 2012, scoring 66 fewer runs than in 2011. Only the Red Sox and Mets offenses took a bigger tumble. But they reduced their opponents scoring almost as much as Baltimore did, shaving 132 runs from the opposition. It was by far the biggest such improement in the NL.The bullpen went from good to phenomenal, they got a full year out of Johnny Cueto, they added Matt Latos, and they got 200 quality innings from two guys (Arroyo and Bailey) who'd been pretty crummy the year before.
The Cincinnati story leads me to digress on the ever-present tendency to confuse indicators of possible future value with markers of genuine present value. If in 2012 some imaginary great hitter had lost 30 hits on line drives into infielders' gloves, while some merely decent hitter picked up 30 hits on routine grounders that found a hole - there's a pretty good chance the merely decent hitter was the more valuable player. He was the better hitter. He probably won't be better in 2013, but we're not always talking about next year. A weak grounder through the hole is much, much better than a screaming line drive into a fielder's glove in the game you're playing that day. The same thing applies to pitchers, of course. Strikeouts are certainly an excellent indicator of future goodness - but in the game or the year just gone by, long fly balls and hard liners that find gloves are usually every bit as good. When you're looking at the year that just happened, you don't always want to get distracted by what it suggests about the years going forward. That said: while Cincinnati won 18 more games this past year than they did in 2011, we all know that the circumstances were rather unusual. A 66 run improvement is nothing to sneeze at, but it doesn't normally lead to 18 more wins. You might even want to say that there were four teams that made bigger improvements on the field than Cincinnati, although it couldn't even buy them 10 more wins than it did the year before.
Of course, one of those team's was San Francisco, who just won their second World Series in three years. The Giants allowed 71 more runs this past season than they did the year before, but they more than made up for it with the bats, as they scored 148 more runs. Whoa. No major league offense improved as much as San Francisco from 2011 to 2012. All told, they swung 77 runs in their favour, and went from 86 wins to 94. Curiously, in both seasons they won about 5 more games than you would expect from their runs scored and allowed. I was cheering for them this October. They're not going to be in the post-season next year. (Just thought I'd throw that out there!)
There was some optimism in Pittsburgh for the first time in decades this past summer. You may recall that in late July, after 100 games, they were 16 games over .500 (58-42) and just 2 games out of first place. Ah, but then they traded Brad Lincoln... . Well, I don't really think that's why they went 21-41 from that point forward. Anyway, the Bucs' runs scored and allowed was better by 79 runs, an improvement divided evenly between the offense (41 runs better) and the defense (38 runs better). What interests me about the Pirates is that they have the makings of a pretty solid looking lineup if they can just do something about the two ugly gaping holes dragging the team down. Those holes are behind the plate and at shortstop, where Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes have gone over the hill and are tumbling uncontrollably down the far side. Now catcher and shortstop are generally very tough holes to fill, but I can think of at least one team that may have an excess at both of those positions...
Seattle was also quite a bit better this past season, but when you go from 67 wins to 75 no one cares very much.
And the great invisible leap forward this past season? The White Sox. They stumbled at the end, and Detroit blew by them - but while the White Sox could only improve their W-L record from 79 wins to 85, they made some pretty impressive progress on the field. Mostly with the bats - they reduced opposition scoring by 30 runs, while improving their own output by 94 runs. It was the second biggest offensive improvement in the AL. It was mostly veteran bats - Rios, Dunn, Pierzynski - bouncing back from disastrous years to have solid to good seasons. Not giving Juan Pierre more than 700 plate appearances also helped. They weren't an unlucky team, although they did waste some of this offensive goodness while beating the other guiys senseless - the Sox went 26-16 in blowouts. But beating the other guys to a pulp is a sign of quality. I'd be pretty optimistic about them next season if it weren't for the fact that their four best players are all on the wrong side of 30.
Well, here's some random stuff I should put somewhere...
Offense in the AL was down a fraction this season, from 4.46 in 2011 to 4.45 this past year. In the league's 110 year history, this was a middle of the road season. It ranks 62nd in runs per game, behind 2010 and ahead of 1955.
Offense in the NL picked up a little this year, going from 4.13 runs per game to 4.22 - this seasons ranks 72nd in the NL's 120 years (since the move to 60 feet 6 inches). In 71st place was 1979, in 73rd was 1990.
The best place to hit in the major leagues this season? Well, it was Coors Field. What did you expect? Things were a little stranger in the AL in 2012. I give you a Data Table for both leagues:
Home Field Road Game Offensive
Team Scoring Scoring Factor
CHI 796 628 1.27
BOS 842 698 1.21
TEX 821 694 1.18
BAL 765 652 1.17
DET 722 674 1.07
MIN 783 750 1.04
TOR 753 747 1.01
NYY 733 739 0.99
CLE 716 796 0.90
KC 723 805 0.90
OAK 624 703 0.89
TB 594 680 0.87
LAA 657 809 0.81
SEA 517 753 0.69
While Texas remains a great place to hit, it came back to earth this year after doing a pretty credible Coors imitation in 2011. US Cellular in Chicago was the best offensive park in the AL in 2012, but just a year earlier the White Sox had scored and allowed more runs in their road games than they had at home. The White Sox have now pllayed 22 seasons there, and 10 times the White Sox saw more runs scoring in their road games. It's a variable park. Some of them are like that. Kaufman Field in Kansas City swings wildly from one season to the next - in 2003, it was the second best hitting environment the AL has seen in the past ten years (behind only Arlington in 2011), and it was also a great park for offense in 2006. But in 2004 and 2008 it played as one of the best pitcher's parks in the league.
As you can see, the most neutral AL parks in terms of runs scored were the Rogers Centre and the new Yankee Stadium. I trust no one is surprised that the best places to pitch are generally on the west coast. This is true in both leagues, by the way.
Home Field Road Game Offensive
Team Scoring Scoring Factor
COL 1009 639 1.58
ARI 767 655 1.17
MIL 813 696 1.17
CIN 662 595 1.11
ATL 662 638 1.04
CHC 694 678 1.02
WSN 670 655 1.02
MIA 668 665 1.00
STL 701 712 0.98
PHI 671 693 0.97
HOU 666 711 0.94
NYM 634 725 0.87
LAD 573 661 0.87
SD 627 734 0.85
PIT 574 751 0.76
SF 580 787 0.74
What happened in Pittsburgh looks like very much like a one-year fluke. Like I say, these things happen. Since opening for business, the Pirates new stadium has given us three four year cycles of utterly perfectly symmetry: it plays as a hitters park for two years and then as a pitchers park for two years. The Offensive Factors have ranged from 0.90 to 1.12 until this year's strange showing. As 2012 was the second year of the Pirates third four-year cycle, a hitters year is due for th park next season.
I also think that what's happened in San Francisco these last two years may be a bit of a fluke as well. It's been almost impossible to score runs there the past two seasons but it simply wasn't always this way. While AT&T/Pac Bell played as an extreme pitcher's park in its first three seasons, since then it had been fairly neutral in its impact on runs scored. There was more offense in Giants' home games than road games in 2004, 2008, 2009 and it was as close to neutral as a park could be in 2006 and 2007. I end up wondering how much these wide swings from one season to the next have to do with the weather - San Francisco certainly has lots of that. As you can see, its overall Offensive Factor is 0.95 over the last ten years - and it's entirely the last two seasons that drag it away from perfect neutrality. Over its entire history, it's had an Offensive Factor of 0.92, which is nowhere near Petco's 0.81 overall, and 2012 was just business as usual in San Diego. The Padres home park remains the greatest pitcher's park in the history of the game.
Here's a larger table covering the past ten years for all current parks, not all of which have been open for the entire period. They're listed in order of how hospitable they've been to the hitters.
HOME ROAD
Total Total Offensive
Team PARK GPL W L RS RA Offense GPL W L RS RA Offense Factor
TEX Ameriquest 810 465 345 4575 4148 8723 810 374 436 3762 3879 7641 1.14
BOS Fenway Park 809 497 312 4660 3841 8501 810 410 400 3987 3737 7724 1.10
CHI US Cellular ) 811 454 357 4013 3802 7815 810 396 414 3633 3569 7202 1.08
NYY Yankee Stadium II 324 212 112 1810 1390 3200 324 178 146 1635 1381 3016 1.06
TOR Rogers Centre 807 442 365 3966 3725 7691 812 361 451 3710 3736 7446 1.04
KC Kaufman Stadium 808 361 447 3684 4252 7936 812 317 495 3495 4180 7675 1.04
BAL Camden Yards 808 388 420 3781 4153 7934 811 334 477 3613 4159 7772 1.02
DET Comerica Park 810 434 376 3909 3789 7698 811 359 452 3769 3968 7737 1.00
MIN Target Field 243 117 126 1055 1131 2186 243 106 137 1046 1176 2222 0.98
OAK McAfee Stadium 810 466 344 3640 3215 6855 809 377 432 3631 3683 7314 0.94
CLE Jacobs Field 810 420 390 3750 3673 7423 810 358 452 3873 4073 7946 0.93
TB Tropicana Field 809 446 363 3678 3595 7273 810 339 471 3755 4100 7855 0.93
LAA Angel Stadium 811 471 340 3722 3385 7107 809 428 381 3962 3690 7652 0.93
SEA Safeco Field 814 417 397 3207 3428 6635 806 323 483 3534 3915 7449 0.88
COL Coors Field 811 441 370 4677 4366 9043 810 320 490 3236 3799 7035 1.28
ARI Chase Field 810 415 395 3810 4017 7827 810 355 455 3321 3617 6938 1.13
CHC Wrigley Field 810 420 390 3762 3690 7452 808 374 434 3436 3521 6957 1.07
CIN Great American Ballpark 810 422 388 3792 3974 7766 810 367 443 3575 3878 7453 1.04
PHI Citizens Bank Park 732 415 317 3658 3253 6911 726 398 328 3534 3125 6659 1.03
MIL Miller Park 810 447 363 3807 3739 7546 809 353 456 3580 3879 7459 1.01
MIA Marlins Park 81 38 43 305 363 668 81 31 50 304 361 665 1.00
WSN Nationals Park 403 202 201 1690 1818 3508 405 163 242 1671 1860 3531 1.00
HOU Minute Maid Park 809 434 375 3554 3503 7057 810 336 474 3369 3845 7214 0.98
ATL Turner Field 810 481 329 3823 3291 7114 810 401 409 3882 3582 7464 0.95
PIT PNC Park 809 392 417 3436 3691 7127 809 294 515 3311 4170 7481 0.95
SF AT&T Park 811 455 356 3428 3316 6744 807 390 417 3537 3527 7064 0.95
STL Busch III 566 331 235 2608 2314 4922 567 271 296 2670 2623 5293 0.93
LAD Dodger Stadium 810 457 353 3434 3117 6551 809 389 420 3569 3516 7085 0.92
NYM Citi Field 324 158 166 1292 1346 2638 324 142 182 1403 1514 2917 0.90
SD Petco Park 729 377 352 2727 2789 5516 730 344 386 3381 3422 6803 0.81
I think that's a wrap...
