http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2012/10/who_would_the_r.html discusses compensation for Farrell.  I contend that compensation gained in the deals for Theo Epstein and Ozzie Guillen are comparable to singles being hit.  I believe A.A. must have a grand slam hit, in comparison, in the compensation obtained.   Nothing less should be accepted by fans.

Even Boston expects to pay heavily for Farrell.  I would accept Dustin Pedroia - or - Chris Carpenter and Rubby De La Rosa plus PTBNL.

I'll be quite happy if Farrell goes and they get a reasonably decent player in return.  I'm not impressed with Farrell's on-field decision making, so I figure it helps the Jays and hurts the Sox if he goes there.  To get a decent player would be a nice bonus. 

No way are they going to get a Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Middlebrooks type player, but they may be able to add a useful piece along the lines of an Aviles, Ross, Doubront type of player.  Or maybe they go to the farm system for a solid prospect.

Daniel Nava?  I'll take it.

Nava would be a cheap platoon partner for Rajai Davis in left, and would add some much needed OBP to our lineup.  If there's one thing that Nava can do well, it's stand there and take walks.  Nava/Davis would work well as a time wasting option so that Anthony Gose can get a bit more AAA time to start the season.

Remember that Boston would be getting not only Farrell's managerial assets (whatever you think of them), but also a ton of intel about the Jays' organization from top to bottom.

I don't know how true that is. How much "intel" did the Jays get about the Red Sox organization when Farrell came over? Even if they did, what good did it do?

Farrell is not going to command a great package. A reliever who can help the big league club and a fringe prospect is probably what I would be expecting. Nothing great. Then again, as far as I'm concerned, getting rid of Farrell is a net positive without getting anything back. Terrible decision by AA two years ago to hire him.

It's bizarre to me that the Sox can look at Farrell's tenure in Toronto and be so eager to have him as their manager.

I think their interest has almost entirely to do with what they know about Farrell when he was with the Red Sox and almost none about what he's done in Toronto (whether there's ideal thinking on their part is another issue).

I expect the compensation to be very underwhelming (but a little more than the Epstein or Guillen compensation).  If the Jays really wanted Farrell there would be no discussion (or the compensation would be so high Boston wouldn't be interested).  If the Jays are in talks, which there's no reason to believe they're not right now, they don't really want Farrell, Boston can deduce that as well, and Boston won't offer anything of significance.

I did find one of the Boston compensation articles amusing when they suggested Zach Stewart as a possibility.

But I have to wonder: why on earth does he want to manage the Boston Red Sox, if indeed he really does? 

The minor leagues could be a small advantage , but I think the only reason why someone would prefer the Jays is less dysfunction in the front office. 

I think given the choice, 90%+ of people in baseball would take the Red Sox manager position over the Blue Jays manager position (although it'd be interesting if an insider took a informal poll on the subject).   

You mean Kevin Kennedy, former manager of the Red Sox and current co-host on MLB Network Radio? And nowhere did Gerry mention KK was an "official source".

No. I mean @KennedyMLB, a fan's twitter page that Gerry quoted as "the latest from Kevin Kennedy", right before saying another official source, Nick Cafardo, tweeted something similar.

It's practically impossible for a GM to know exactly how his manager is going to manage

I would think GMs would ask about game strategy in interviews, although I suppose you can't really know until they really do pull the trigger for real.

Manager Candidate A was Tim Johnson, and that didn't work out too well.

Actually the Jays had a good season under him.  His problems stemmed from certain military exaggerations.

If I were to guess, I'd say that Don Wakamatsu takes over if Farrell departs. The folks at U.S.S. Mariner seemed to like him when he was with Seattle.

I don't have strong memories of Johnson, but that's my recollection, as well. It was only once he became clear that he couldn't lead and command respect in the clubhouse in the face of those lies having been exposed that he had to be fired.

Now you can make the argument that Johnson was never a good manager as no good manager would engage in such a short-sighted and dubious tactic, but it didn't hurt him in terms of short-term on-field results.

Ricky Romero starts Game 1 knowing he has to be perfect, because other than Morrow, three surprises made up the rotation (we can't pitch).   Then Game 1 finishes becoming the longest opening day game in history (we can't hit).   The very next day comes a blown save (our closer sucks).   With bullpen problems, "selective" hitting problems, young Starter woes, things were not totally bad.   How many games were lost because of bad decisions - Brett Lawrie's ("I never make mistakes") base running talent as an example.

A.A. is responsible for acquisitions or the failure to acquire Starter and Batter.   Romero starts Game 1, knowing he's one of three good starters, may not put as much pressure on himself.   Less pressure is put on the other starters.   Do Hutchison and Drabek still go on DL and have TJ surgery if they never get called up?   Add the Big Bat A.A. missed acquiring might make the hitting less selective and more effective.   Less pressure might be placed on the Batters.   I firmly believe A.A. cost this team 10-12 games.

John Farrell is responsible for almost everything else, and his biggest mistake was assuming Boston's way of treating players is the right way here.  Some players regressed under his watch, while others progressed slower than expected.   Bullpen usage, lineups, in-game decisions and lack of discipline were costly for this team.   I believe Farrell cost this team 15-20 games.

I'm believe if A.A. did his job this past offseason and did better this past July, this Team would have been good enough to contend for a playoff spot.  A better manager might have got the actual past team there.

Okay maybe Farrell should stay after all...

From the article referenced by greenfrog:

Coming to an agreement on compensation figures to be the biggest challenge of the process for the Red Sox. One source Saturday said it was expected that the team would have to surrender either a player off its 25-man roster or a significant prospect from its minor league system.

I say it's a pitcher ready to play in the majors next season. My first guess would be either Allen Webster or Rubby DeLaRosa, both who came over from LA in the big trade this summer.

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo
Will Farrell end up in Boston? Likely. Has it been decided between him and Ausmus? No. Has it been ceded to Cherington? Yes.big day Sunday

I'm not sure what he means about Sunday being a big day, but it sure would be nice if this saga finally ended tomorrow. It's time to move on.

It may also be an indication of how far Farrell's stock has fallen in the past year. If Anthopoulos wanted Buchholz last offseason and settled for Aviles this time around, the reports of a significant rift may have been true.

Aviles was one of the 3 players I suggested back in the 12th post on this thread, and I think it's a reasonable deal.  He's had good seasons in 2008 and 2010, hitting over .300, then an interesting split year in 2011 when he was terrible for KC, but then picked it up in a big way after going to Boston, again hitting over .300.  The 2012 season was a below average year for him.  Career OPS of .715, a good % base stealer, and has some power.  Team control for 2 more years.  At this point, I'm assuming he takes over at 2B, and if he hits like he did in 2008, 2010, or the post-trade 2011, they might bat him 2nd.  Getting rid of Farrell is a positive as well, in my book.

@bluejays. I'm avaiabe. Take u to promise land.

It's the "good" Carpenter in that he's the one the fanboys were talking up when we sent a boatload of prospects to Houston for Happ.  The bad one was released in September, I believe.

Hmmm....I may be a troll.

One thing to note is that Aviles, like Escobar, gains a significant portion of his value through his defence. Aviles is thought of as surehanded and able to capably play all the infield positions, but I'm a little skeptical of a stat that suggests a 31-year-old shortstop who has never got notable plaudits for his defence is a big plus defensively and likely to remain that way for his age 32 and 33 seasons.

To back that opinion up (or to demonstrate the fallibility of opinions by amateurs on defence), the Fans Scouting Report is not nearly as favourable to Aviles as it is to Escobar.

Fangraphs has an interview with Mike Aviles, focused on his defence.  The piece finishes with the following quote:

Ben Jedlovec, Baseball Info Solutions: “Mike Aviles had a great season from a defensive perspective. His 14 Defensive Runs Saved was tied for fifth among all shortstops in 2012. This was a mild surprise, given that Aviles doesn’t have a widespread reputation as a defender. However, he has spent only one other season as a regular shortstop, 2008, when he also saved 14 runs defensively. He did have a disappointing 2010 season at second base with -8 Defensive Runs Saved. All in all, Aviles was a pleasant surprise defensively for the Red Sox.”

The only thing that bothers me about this whole thing is the wasted development time in 2011 and 2012. None of the young talent played well under Farrell, especially the pitchers, which was supposed to be his strength. Drabek? Sucked and then got hurt. Alvarez? No one ever bothered to help him develop another pitch or effectively use his existing repetoire so he was not very good either. Hutchison? Decent until he got hurt. Cecil? Lost velocity and stunk. Carreno? Nothing. Reyes (in 2011)? Garbage....although hard to blame Farrell for that since Jo Jo isn't very good to begin with.

Then you have the hitters. We saw the regression of Lawrie, Rasmus, and Arencibia (although the latter probably is what he is and won't get much better) this past season and Escobar turned into a pumpkin. The best hitters on the team currently either broke out prior to Farrell's arrival (Bautista) or broke out due to instruction from another party (Encarnacion, who credits Luis Mercedes for his monster season). Then you had Adam Lind, who apparently HATES batting clean-up, forced to bat clean-up and face lefties (who he can't hit).

Now Farrell is gone after sucking the life out of whatever potential the Jays had internally for two years. Practically no one improved under his watch. Most actually regressed. What a waste.

Oh well. Live and learn. Move on. Farrell was not a good manager and is/was highly replaceable. Hopefully the Jays make the right call this time around (Alomar or Martinez would be my picks).

I fully expect AA to sign another middle infielder who can't hit as a backup plan then to try to improve overall

I think this will happen as well. I believe the starting SS/2B combo will be Escobar/Aviles with Hechavarria starting in AAA and perhaps forcing his way onto the roster mid-season. Or AA finds a taker for Escobar and Hechavarria/Aviles is the starting combo. Either way, a McCoy type, or a slightly better version, will serve as the backup. I don't believe an upgrade on Aviles will be pursued.

Given the presumed off-season focus on starting pitching, I think positions like 2B, LF and 1B/DH will fall by the wayside and be addressed with in-house solutions.

If AA is given the latitude to spend, maybe some surprises will be in store. I guess we'll wait and see.