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Ben Francisco hardly got into a game during his half-season in Toronto. Nevertheless, he’s starting in right field for the Tampa Bay Rays as they squaring off against the White Sox in Chicago, facing elimination. The Rays have handed the ball to David Price, while the White Sox, currently two games behind the Tigers in the AL Central, are starting Jose Quintana. The Tigers are in Minnesota with Anibal Sanchez and Liam Hendriks on the mound.

Meanwhile, the Orioles and Yankees are tied atop the AL East in an effort to avoid the wildcard play-in game. The Jays currently lead New York 2-1 in the fifth inning. Joe Saunders has thrown three shutout innings for the Orioles as they host the Red Sox. Matt Wieters has led the offensive attack for the Orioles and they have currently scored five runs off former Blue Jay Zach Stewart.

Here are the current standings in the American League, where no team has clinched a playoff spot.

AL East:
BAL 91-67
NYY 91-67

AL Central:
DET 85-73
CWS 83-75 (2 GB)

AL West:
TEX 92-65
OAK 90-68 (2.5 GB)

AL Wildcard:
BAL/NYY 91-67
OAK 90-68 (1 GB of 1st Wildcard spot)
LAA 87-70 (2.5 GB of 2nd Wildcard Spot)
TAM 87-71 (3 GB of 2nd Wildcard Spot)

In the National League, Yadier Molina’s Cardinals are 2 games ahead of the Los Angeles Red Sox for the 2nd wildcard spot.

Playoff Races Chatter | 121 comments | Create New Account
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Original Ryan - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#264015) #
Well, that was frustrating. Farrell uses seven relievers who manage to turn a three-run lead into a four-run deficit, all while Casey Janssen enjoys a relaxing day off in the bullpen. Once again Farrell demonstrates that he'd rather lose a ballgame than sacrifice a save opportunity for his closer. I will never understand how a manager's priorities could get so screwed up.

I'm not expecting Farrell to suddenly start quoting WAR or FIP, but I don't think that using a little common sense every now and then is too much to ask of him. Going with your top guy when the game is on the line isn't exactly an earth-shattering concept.

It's taken me a while to get on the Orioles' bandwagon, but I'd love to see the Yankees relegated to the one-game playoff for the wild card.
Gerry - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#264016) #
New York now play Boston. Baltimore play Tampa.

I will be very interested to see how Boston play against the Yankees. Boston have rolled over for the past few weeks, perhaps looking to get Bobby V fired. Now they have a chance to knock down their big rivals, the Yankees. Will they play hard against the Yankees?
hypobole - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#264019) #
Ryan, should Janssen have pitched the 7th? Because I can't think of any manager that brings in his closer in the 7th inning.
Chuck - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#264020) #

I've been rooting for TB, as I usually do, and am disappointed in the Red Sox for rolling over so pathetically against the Orioles and doing zilch to help (to Gerry's question, I would bet that they will be no less flaccid against the Yankees). And the Rays are no impostors what with the best run differential in the AL and all. Not sure how Maddon does it. The names on paper just don't seem to add up to much. Ever. If there is a better manager in baseball I'd like to know who it is.

The Red Sox have been as poor this September as last, even without the beer and fried chicken. Heading into September of 2011, they seemed playoff-bound and looked like a reasonably strong organization. They sure don't look that way any more. Not sure what this off-season has in store, but the instinct to lump them in as a division power house moving forward is no longer there. Presumably they'll look to spend a chunk of their freed up cash but this is not the greatest FA market.

While seeing the Orioles do well may please many, I am, frankly, put off by the game of mirrors they have been playing. Yes, insofar as they actually won all those games, they have deserved to do so, but I don't like seeing phony baloney teams get rewarded. That said, they have been a .667 team the past two months (and only slightly above Pythagoras) and some could argue that what was luck for the first 4 months has been legitimate skill the past 2 months and the team they are running out now is fully deserving. I imagine they will be the darlings of many and surely won't miss me on their bandwagon.

So with TB almost certainly not playoff-bound, I find myself rooting for the A's. I always felt that Billy Beane deserved a better fate in earlier times, and while I didn't see this particular incarnation of the A's as even a .500 team, their success has been well earned and the corresponding screw you to the anti-Moneyball crowd has been enjoyable. Kind of anti-schadenfreude.

As for the NL, Washington seems like a juggernaut but if the Cards win their play-in against Atlanta, I'd find myself looking at them as a potential dark horse. Pythagoras has not been kind to them. They are much stronger than many are giving credit. That said, that one-game play-in, presumably against baseball's hottest starting pitcher, Kris Medlen, will be a serious impediment.

Braves' trivia: Kimbrel has struck out 113 of 227 batters faced, just a hair below 50%. No pitcher, I don't think, has ever struck out 50%.

Question: if you're Bruce Bochy, what is your rotation?

Original Ryan - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#264022) #
Ryan, should Janssen have pitched the 7th? Because I can't think of any manager that brings in his closer in the 7th inning.

I would have gone with Janssen instead of Loup to face Swisher in the 7th and tried to preserve the lead. That's when the game needed saving. While Janssen wouldn't be able to finish off the game, he was a better option to put out the fire than Loup.

I'm quite aware that no manager in the game today would do this. I just can't understand why. Something is seriously wrong when a manager thinks that getting a save for his best reliever is more important than getting a win for his team. Farrell let today's game slip away in the late innings without ever having Janssen warm up, and that doesn't make any sense to me.

Gerry - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#264024) #
With the Angels-Texas game still going here is the latest playoff picture:

In the NL St Louis are two games up on the Dodgers with three to play. St Louis finish by hosting Cincy. LA host the Giants.

In the AL, Baltimore and the Yankees are tied.

Detroit are three up with three to play on the White Sox.

Texas will be one or two games ahead of Oakland.

Oakland will be two or three games ahead of the Angels for the second wild card.

Oakland are three games ahead of Tampa so the only way Tampa can make it to the wild card game is by a Thursday playoff.


In summary the NL appears to be done.

If the Angels lose on Sunday then the four playoff teams in the AL are almost guaranteed.

The best hope for Thursday baseball seems to be a Baltimore/New York playoff.

Texas and Oakland play the last three games against one another. If Texas win on Sunday then Oakland would need a sweep to win the division. If Texas lose then Oakland can tie Texas by winning two of three.
Spifficus - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#264025) #

I'm not expecting Farrell to suddenly start quoting WAR or FIP, but I don't think that using a little common sense every now and then is too much to ask of him.

I'm quite aware that no manager in the game today would do this. I just can't understand why.

Did Farrell really display a lack of 'common sense', if no one else that holds the same position (or at least the vast majority) would have done the same thing? I know losses are frustrating, but Farrell really does seem like a misguided target in this case. In this case, 4 different arms were given the opportunity to contribute, and none of them could. I see this one on the players, and not some relative failing of the manager. It feels like a tilt at the windmill to think otherwise.

Original Ryan - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#264029) #
If the Angels lose on Sunday then the four playoff teams in the AL are almost guaranteed.

And while the Angels have C.J. Wilson on the mound tomorrow in Seattle, they're facing Felix Hernandez. The Angels are losing as I type this, so it doesn't look good for them.

I didn't intend to hijack the playoff chatter thread with my bullpen discussion. I was mostly just venting about the way the Blue Jays lost their last meaningful game of the year, as it would've been nice to bump the Yankees into second place. I'll respond to the points Spifficus raised in the Quest for 70 thread.

Magpie - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#264030) #
On the other hand, seeing as how Oliver and Delabar have pitched as well or better than Janssen for Toronto, you might argue that Farrell was doing exactly what he should have done.

There are two main reasons modern managers - all of them, there are no exceptions - run their bullpens the way they do. Beyond the whole Slave-to-the-Save business (which is a song we can all sing together, with gritted teeth.) One, the players believe in it. The players really do believe there's something special about the ninth inning. You have to respect that - they're the ones playing the game for you. And if you lose a game in the ninth with another pitcher on the mound because you've already used your closer.. your players look at you funny, and begin to think you don't know what you're doing.

The second reason is that managers have discovered that relief pitchers are far, far more effective when they know what their role is and when they can expect to come into the game.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#264031) #
With today's game under wraps, Toronto needs 56,495 fans to attend their final three games at home verses Minnesota to reach the 2.1 million mark.

The PostSeason is becoming clearer, but is taking a long time to finalize.

I firmly believe it will not matter whatever decision Farrell makes. He can be right or he can be wrong and people on this site will complain. He's becoming the scapegoat for this season. A.A. is the sole person to blame. Unwillingness to pay the price lost the Team: Yu Darvish (what a debacle that was), Gio Gonzales and a Big Bat. A Rotation of Romero, Morrow, Davish and Gonzales has no room for Alvarez, Hutchison, Drabek and a group of players named Who?. A Big Bat means Bautista doesn't have to be perfect and keep failing, he can just try to be good.
John Northey - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#264033) #
The 3 games between the A's and Rangers will be fun. The A's need a sweep to skip the wild card game, the Rangers need just 1 of 3 (the A's still need one win or Angels loss to clinch a playoff slot). Still, who would've thought the A's would have any shot at the west title before this season started? Baltimore & the Yankees tied for the AL East lead with 3 to go - how weird is that? The Tigers just need 1 win or 1 White Sox loss to clinch the AL Central. So the playoff slots are pretty much decided but the new wild card system makes the last 3 games meaningful for 4 teams (A's/Rangers/Yankees/Orioles). Under the old system the A's would've been 1 game back of the Yankees/Orioles with one of the 3 missing the playoffs.

The NL is more boring as its pretty much settled. The only slot in question is the 2nd wild card with St Louis 2 games ahead of the Dodgers with 3 to go. Both the Cards & Dodgers are playing division rivals who are playoff bound (Reds & Giants respectively). Odds are strongly in the Cards favour though as their magic number is down to 2. Technically Atlanta could catch Washington but down 3 with 3 to go and not playing each other I'd put those odds as extremely low.

The fun stat of the day - the Pirates will finish sub-500 for the 20th straight season, or if you prefer every season since Barry Bonds left as a free agent. The closest to it is the 16 straight the Phillies did from 1933-1948 - those Phillies made it to the World Series 2 years after that horrid streak (1950). In 1932 they barely had a winning record (2 games over) and from 1918-1931 they were losers every year (14 years) so a 31 year stretch of pretty bad baseball. So that is more like the Royals who had a streak from 1995 to 2002 (8 years) then 1 winning season (4 games over) then another 9 losing years and counting.

Yeah, there are worse things that cheering on the Jays. You could be a Leaf fan (missing the playoffs for 7 years in that league is roughly a 1 in 128 shot - if MLB had those rules the Jays right now would be 13 behind the White Sox after having made it in 2011 and 2010). The odds of the Jays missing the playoffs since 1993 on random odds is 1 in 107. FYI: the odds of missing 4 in a row in the NBA (as the Raptors have done) is 1 in 16 odds. The odds of having all 3 teams suck this much? 1 in 1,753,088 - so at least it is historic to have 3 ML sports teams that suck this much.

FYI: random odds of 20 years of sub-500 ball? 1 in 1,048,576 - so the odds of the Pirates sucking like they have is actually lower than the odds of the 3 ugly non-playoff streaks we are seeing here. Ick.
Original Ryan - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#264034) #
The fun stat of the day - the Pirates will finish sub-500 for the 20th straight season, or if you prefer every season since Barry Bonds left as a free agent.

Another way to put it: the Pirates haven't had a winning season in Bryce Harper's lifetime. Harper was born two days after game 7 of the 1992 NLCS.

John Northey - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#264036) #
Ouch! To think a whole generation of baseball fans have grown up in Pittsburgh without seeing their team have a winning season. The Jays may be frustrating with the lack of playoff appearances but at least we've seen winning seasons and know this team would've made the playoffs under both the current system and the NHL/NBA one.

Under the current system the Jays...
2006: 2 games out in the end
1999: 3 games out
1998: in playoffs with 3 games to spare

Hrm. Not great, but better than the 1 wildcard system. Funny that Ash's teams would've been the big winners. Wonder if that was the system if Clemens would've stayed post-98 and if the team would've reacted differently in 99-01 (Ash's last years) leading to more Ash and never seeing JPR.
greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#264039) #
We talk a lot about Darvish, but Cespedes has been a huge off-season addition for Oakland. His current line: 291/353/509, OPS+ 137, BRef WAR 3.4, wRC+ 139.

Another promising Cuban player is Jorge Soler (whom I advocated pursuing, but his 9/$30M contract was probably too rich for Rogers' blood). The 20-year-old and likely right fielder had a wRC+ of 110 in Rookie ball and a wRC+ of 156 in A ball in 2012.
John Northey - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#264040) #
Yeah, if Rogers opened the vaults this past winter there were 3 great opportunities. Darvish we were all high on, Cespedes is a guy you needed good scouts to see what he could do (why didn't ours?), and Soler was viewed as potentially the best of the 3 long term. All 3 fit nicely into the Jays plans - young, under control for at least 6 ML seasons each, and very talented. The cost was cash, not prospects or draft picks. Plus this was the last chance to get international free agents without getting hit with the tax.

Sigh. Such is life.
BlueJayWay - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#264042) #
Yeah, well, there are payroll parameters.  Hard to compete for players like Cespedes when the big market Oakland A's show up with all their cash.
greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#264043) #
Soler was viewed as potentially the best of the 3 long term

When I suggested pursuing Soler before he signed with the Cubs, it was pretty much crickets around here.
Chuck - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#264044) #

When I suggested pursuing Soler before he signed with the Cubs, it was pretty much crickets around here.

In fairness, though, it's the organization's job to be on top of players like that, not this forum's.

mathesond - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#264045) #
When I suggested pursuing Soler before he signed with the Cubs, it was pretty much crickets around here

To be fair, not many of us make the financial decisions for Rogers
greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#264048) #
it's the organization's job to be on top of players like that, not this forum's

So which players is it this forum's job to be on top of? And what do you mean by "players like that"?
Richard S.S. - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#264049) #
The hardest thing to do with a Baseball Team is three-peat.   With some knowledge of the forthcoming labor difficulties, it's possible the Executive of the Blue Jays knew and that's why Gillick and Beaston bailed after '93, and we got an inexperienced Gord Ash as GM.  Then came 4 years of dismal teams.  1998 started years of mediocrity where the Teams were not bad, just not good enough.   I just can't imagine being a Pirate Fan.
SK in NJ - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#264050) #

It is pretty clear, based on this past off-season, that AA is not going to change, whether due to financial restraints or his own personal choosing. Last off-season he had every chance to sign cheap one year stop-gaps to fill the rotation, but he instead opted to go with Drabek, Alvarez, and a heavily rushed Hutchison when internal options like Cecil, McGowan, and Carreno could not go. He went with Thames in the OF and was ready to move on with a first round pick for Kelly Johnson before KJ decided to accept arbitration. His big off-season move for a closer was made almost entirely because of the cost effective contract that Santos has (and likely projection that Santos' K rates would make him an elite closer). Nothing has really changed, and the worst case happened because young players regressed and/or got hurt, and Bautista missed the last two+ months of the season.

Basically, all the talk about Fielder, Darvish, etc, was pointless. AA was never going to do any of that. His goal, whether right or wrong, is to find cost effective talent that he can either acquire at low value and lock up or talent already signed that he can use for x amount of years. That also explains his reasoning for acquiring Happ, Lincoln, and Delabar. He wants to win with a low payroll, probably out of necessity due to Rogers and the snakeoil salesman himself Paul Beeston, so it is hard to really look at lost opportunity when those opportunities were likely never even considered given the cost associated with them.

I am willing to bet that the players he uses to fill holes this season are going to be in the same vein as Rasmus, Lawrie, Escobar, Morrow, Santos, Lincoln, etc. If not, they will be Alex Gonzalez short-term types (maybe Scutaro at 2B?). For all the talk about "now" being the time to start adding players (right, because the season after losing 90 games seems like the ideal time to start adding pieces), it is all BS, IMO. We as fans just have to hope internal improvement and maybe some luck helps the team out next year.

James W - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#264051) #
There are no players anywhere that's it's this forum's job to be on top of.

I have to guess, but I'm going to say "players like that" means any player that can be obtained to help the team win.
greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#264052) #
His goal, whether right or wrong, is to find cost effective talent that he can either acquire at low value and lock up or talent already signed that he can use for x amount of years....He wants to win with a low payroll, probably out of necessity

This sounds eerily like a description of Ricciardi's tenure, apart from the Burnett/Ryan spending blip. Remember when JPR was going to turn the Jays into "a developmental machine"?
SK in NJ - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#264053) #

This sounds eerily like a description of Ricciardi's tenure, apart from the Burnett/Ryan spending blip. Remember when JPR was going to turn the Jays into "a developmental machine"?

Unfortunately, either Rogers, AA, or both, want the team to be run like the Rays. Everything they have done since AA took over shows that (except the playoff appearances). Maybe hiring a Joe Maddon type can turn the existing roster into a winner, who knows, but I'm not going to expect any big signings or trades. If this team makes the playoffs in 2013, it will be because Bautista and EE carry the offense, Lawrie/Rasmus/Escobar/Romero have bounce back years, Morrow continues on his great season, Happ's ratios from 2012 turn into 2013 success, Alvarez pans out, Santos/Delabar/Lincoln/Janssen/etc form a knockout pen, etc. It won't be because Greinke and Hamilton put the team over the top, that's for sure.

greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#264054) #
What I don't get is why the media never gets on AA and Beeston about the non-bidding on players like Cespedes and Soler. People get all worked up about players like Darvish (me included), C.J. Wilson and Fielder, but seemed to overlook the one-time opportunity to nab some of these IFAs on the open market last off-season. The A's and the Cubs recognized this and did themselves a big favour.

I like most of what AA is doing. I just wish the team were more aggressive with some of these players in a concerted effort to build the best team possible (a la Texas), not just a decent "value" team. And I am worried that this off-season the Jays will start making second-rate moves (perhaps with a push from Beeston) to prevent fans from jumping off the bandwagon.
MatO - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#264055) #

Speaking of Prince Fielder.  He's in line to play 162 games this season with an OPS+ of 151.  He's missed one game in the last four seasons and a total of 12 in his 7 full seasons.  On the other end of the spectrum, Troy Tulowitzki is up to about 200 games missed in his career.

greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#264056) #
The main difference between TB and the Jays isn't Maddon-esque calibre managing, it's the starting rotation.
Chuck - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#264057) #

So which players is it this forum's job to be on top of? And what do you mean by "players like that"?

I understood your crickets remark to mean that given that this forum expressed little interest in Soler, that the organization should not then be blamed for seemingly having been no more interested than we.

My counter was intended to suggest that we, as a forum, are permitted to miscalculate the value of international free agents insofar as being on top of such matters is none of our jobs.

Perhaps I misunderstood your initial remark.

Mike Green - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#264059) #
Many of us don't say much about IFAs because we simply don't have much to add.  For someone like Darvish, I have seen the video, I know a little bit about what his stat line in Japan might mean, and I know something about the differences between pitching in Japan and in MLB. It doesn't amount to a whole lot, but for someone like Soler or Cespedes in Cuban baseball, I know less.  So, I rarely say anything about it, positive or negative.
greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#264060) #
There was lots of content available about Soler in the many months leading up to the signing. Here is an excerpt from one article (Jim Callis's Ask BA column on Dec 11, 2011):

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2011/2612703.html

He hasn't been as hyped as fellow Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, and he can't match Cespedes' flair for YouTube promotion, but some teams believe Soler is the better prospect. He's a 19-year-old athlete with five-tool potential.

Six-foot-3 and 205 pounds, Soler has explosive bat speed and power potential. He also has plus speed and arm strength and profiles as a classic right fielder, though he runs well enough to play center. Because of his youth, he'll need some time to develop, but he should be worth the wait.

The 2010 draft had a clear top three prospects in Harper, Taillon and Machado. I'm not sure Soler would have gone ahead of any of them. The Pirates insist they would have taken Taillon over Harper had they picked first rather than second, and five-tool players are harder to find at shortstop (Machado) then in the outfield.

The less-than-stellar performance record of high-profile Cuban defectors might have worked against Soler, too. All that said, he would have been more attractive then steady middle infielder Christian Colon (No. 4, Royals) or lefthander Drew Pomeranz (No. 5, Indians).

As for the 2012 Top 100 Prospects list, Soler is somewhat similar to Royals outfielder Bubba Starling, the fifth overall pick in the 2011 draft. Starling has the advantages of being more athletic and a better bet to stay in center field. I'd see both of them sitting in the 11-20 range on our next Top 100.

Soler is four years younger and more talented than Leonys Martin, another Cuban outfielder who signed a $15.6 million major league contract with the Rangers in April. Once Soler is cleared to sign with a major league team, he's expected to top Martin's deal.

The new CBA provides for a $2.9 million international cap for each team for the 2012-13 signing period, which doesn't start until July 2. As long as Soler signs before then, he won't be subject to the cap. And even if he were, he's talented enough and the penalties for busting the cap are so light (a 100-percent tax on the overage and a prohibition on signing any international player for more than $250,000 in the next signing period) that I bet several clubs would be willing to exceed the $2.9 million.
Magpie - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#264061) #
By losing 90 games for the first time 1966, the Red Sox have broken the longest current streak in the majors for avoiding a 90-loss season. It was a nice 45 year run, which I'm pretty sure is the second best run of all time (the Yankees didn't lose 90 games from 1914 through 1965; in the other league, the Giants went from 1900 through 1942.) The best current streak now only goes back to 1990, which was the last time both St. Louis and Atlanta lost 90 times. The Yankees now have the longest stretch in the AL; they haven't lost 90 games since 1991.

Along with those three teams, Oakland (1997) and the Angels (1999) are the only other franchises not to have a 90-loss season this millennium.

The longest consecutive streak of 90-loss seasons is 10; this awful feat was achieved by the Phillies (1936-1945) and Tampa Bay (1998-2007.)

With their sixth 90 loss season in a row last year, the Orioles-Browns franchise overtook the Phillies as all-time champs with 38 90-loss seasons. The Phillies 37th came back in 2000. Most of the Browns-Orioles futility happened in St. Louis; the Browns lost more than 90 games 24 times in just 53 years. That deserves some respect - it was a lot harder to lose 90 games when you only got to play 154 of them. The Brownies were up (down?) to the task.

The Orioles would lose more than 90 games in their first two seasons in Baltimore, before shuffling off their Browniness and becoming the Orioles I remember from my youth. They went more than 30 years without losing 90 games, not until they started scuffling in the late 1980s (1987, 1988, 1991.) As we all saw, they just finished rolling off 9 90-loss seasons in an 11 year span (2001-2011.) It looks like those days may be over.

After losing more than 90 in each of their first four seasons, the Jays have lost more than 90 just once - the fabled Season From Hell. (Twice, in 1981 and 1995, a shortened schedule got them off the hook.) So this will be just the sixth time for them. Which ties them with the Yankees and the Marlins for third fewest 90-loss seasons! Oh boy!

The only teams with fewer 90-loss seasons than the Jays, Yankees, and Marlins are both quite young: Arizona (4 times) and Colorado (5 times.)
Magpie - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#264062) #
Of course, the Jays could sweep the Twins. Minnesota's already lost 93 games. They're pretty bad.

Only once in team history has Toronto failed to have a single pitcher crack double figures in wins. That was back in 1979, when Tom Underwood led the way with 9 Ws. In what might still be the most remarkable accomplishment by a pitcher in franchise history, Dave Stieb somehow won 11 games in 1981. (The mind boggles still. The season was just 106 games because of the strike, and the team was beyond awful. In 12 of Stieb's 25 starts, the team scored two runs or less.) Anyway, Romero and Alvarez both finished with 9 this season, but Brandon Morrow has a chance to get to 10 on the final day.
China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 06:14 AM EDT (#264069) #
"....It is pretty clear, based on this past off-season, that AA is not going to change...."

Except that AA has stated clearly, in every recent interview, that he IS going to change. He has stated that he will go after free agents, he will boost the payroll, he's not focusing on prospects any more, he is in "win now" mode.

I understand your skepticism, but your skepticism has slipped into outright cynicism, which is probably not warranted. To be fair, we should wait and see if AA does what he is promising to do. If he fails to do it, then let's criticize him. But let's give him a chance first.

Last off-season was different from this off-season, because the Jays were still in rebuilding mode. Circumstances have changed. The Jays have done all of the preliminary things that they wanted to do (rebuild the farm system, acquire young core players such as Lawrie and Rasmus, sign long-term contracts with key middle-of-the-order hitters such as Bautista and Encarnacion, etc). Now they have no excuses, and I think AA fully realizes that.

Let's give AA a chance to stick to his plan and follow his strategy. If he fails to spend in the coming off-season, then he will have clearly broken his promise. But let's wait and see.

I was somewhat disappointed in the last off-season because I thought the Jays had a chance at the 2nd wild-card if they had acquired a good pitcher and DH, but in retrospect it was probably a bit too early -- and that was probably AA's thinking too. Let's wait and see.
China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#264070) #
"....Basically, all the talk about Fielder, Darvish, etc, was pointless. AA was never going to do any of that...."

You're setting up two extreme options: spend $200-million on the most expensive free agents, or go with a low-payroll strategy. You're forgetting that there's a middle option: spending $60-million or $70-million (or maybe more) on multi-year contracts for good pitchers or hitters. I suspect AA's strategy, at this point, is the middle option. Don't spend $215-million on Prince Fielder, but boost the payroll by acquiring players who are a little more cost-effective. If the Jays don't acquire the most expensive free agents this off-season, it doesn't mean that they can't substantially improve the team.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 06:58 AM EDT (#264072) #
Not a fan of the middle option - that was Gord Ash's strategy and we all know where that ends up. I believe in go big or go small. Yankee/Red Sox/Rangers method or Tampa Bay.

Build the prospects and farm first, then chase the best players possible to fill in holes. Going for middle of the road players will put you exactly there - the middle of the road. Now, there are exceptions. I can see an argument for it with starting pitchers as you need 5 or more of them, or relievers as often middle guys become top guys (or top become bottom) fairly easily. Backups can be of any quality as you hope for minimal playing time for them.

But for your starting 9 and ideally your top 3 starters? Go big. Try to get the best possible talent.

Checking SRS (runs per game better or worse than average) which is a method B-R uses to measure strength of schedule and how the team did the teams in the worst shape in MLB are the Cubs & Houston followed by Colorado, Cleveland, Minnesota & Miami (all 0.7 in the hole or worse). They have a long climb to get back to respectability. The Jays are at -0.1 vs the Yankees at #1 in the AL East at 1.0 (Tampa 0.9, Baltimore 0.3, Boston tied with Jays) Yankees & Rays are #1/2 in MLB followed by Rangers/A's/Angels in that order. A tough group to catch and a big gap - all are at 0.7 or better.

So how to close that gap? Try to get the best from those bottom feeders to build up the holes. Miami is known to be cheap historically and are talking of slashing payroll again. Their most expensive guys are Jose Reyes (entering age 30 season, 110 OPS+ which is what I'd expect him to be around in the near future) at SS, Mark Buehrle (age 34 next year, signed through 2015, 119 ERA+ lifetime, 107 this year), Josh Johnson (signed for 2013 then free agent, 133 lifetime ERA+, 105 this year). All 3 would fill holes from this year if you feel Escobar won't recover and would prefer to use Hech at 2B or AAA. The pitchers obviously would be nice but Buehrle is expensive ($48 mil for 3 years). Still, I bet Miami would love to clear the 3 out, would take Escobar as part of the trade and would happily take Lind if it allowed them to clear that much cash off their books. It does help to have only Lind's as a 'dead weight contract' and a fairly cheap one at that ($7 mil I think).

Houston has nada on their books to clear, Cubs have just Soriano as a killer and no one would want that one, Colorado doesn't have anything killer outside of Tulowitzki and I don't see him being traded, Cleveland has nothing to dump, Minnesota has Mauer who I don't see being traded and Morneau ($14 mil in 2013, 113 OPS+) who could be tempting for DH/1B.

So I'd say Miami is the team to chase, with an eye on Minny for Morneau as he is a one year deal to cover DH/1B with Encarnacion. After that you have to chase teams that might feel they are in it (as much as the Jays do) or getting teams to give up guys they see as having high value. Not hopeful of the Jays taking on big deals but still dreaming.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#264074) #
Morneau would come doubtless cheaper in terms of prospects, but I might opt for Willingham instead.

Morneau: 267/333/440, 113 OPS+ (2012 stats), $14M contract for 2013, then free agent

Willingham: 260/366/524, 144 OPS+ (2012 stats), owed $7M in 2013 and $7M in 2014

But neither makes sense unless the Jays improve their rotation. Personally (this probably puts me in the minority among fans), I do not want to see the Jays gamble on a Gio-like trade for 2013 by trading away two of Sanchez, Syndergaard and Nicolino plus two more prospects (which was reportedly Oakland's asking price). It took a lot of hard work to rebuild the farm system and it isn't going to be easily replenished. Heavily mortgaging the future without a better foundation seems like a dumb idea to me, more suited to an organization like Miami. "Ripeness is all" -Shakespeare
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#264075) #
* This is another problem with going cheap on players like Soler and Cespedes. Had the Jays signed Soler, for example, they could more easily package Marisnick and a couple of players for a young SP, while maintaining a top-flight farm system.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#264076) #
So, here's a question for the Bauxites who argued that the Jays should be trying to finish the season with the best record possible (for reasons of pride, morale, setting an example for the young players, etc.).

The Jays are currently ninth overall in the standings. The top ten picks are protected next year, but one of those picks will be Pittsburgh's (as a result of not signing Appel in 2012; starting in 2013, these ten protected picks will apparently include comp selections within the top ten). Thus, the team that finishes with the 10th-worst record in 2012 will be out of luck - it will have the 11th pick and it will be unprotected.

If the Jays win their next two games, and Seattle and/or the Mets (both of which are two games "behind" the Jays in the race for a protected pick) win its next two games, the Jays will be pushed down the ladder and will no longer have one of these protected picks. Note that when teams are tied in the standings (which is what would happen in the above scenario), the team with the worse record during the previous season (i.e., 2011) gets the higher pick - in this case Seattle or the Mets.

So, Bauxites, which is it? Do you want the best possible record in 2012 (73-89) or a slightly worse record and a top-ten / protected draft pick in 2013?
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#264077) #
Sorry, the above scenario is premised on Seattle and/or the Mets losing (not winning) its next two games.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#264078) #
Seattle is playing the Angels while the Mets are playing playing the sad sack Marlins. I'd bet that the Marlins will lose at least one of the next two, probably today against Dickey. The Angels will probably be in depression land today after being formally eliminated yesterday and should be easy pickings, although they could come out charging too.

Avoiding 90 losses is a good thing, but logically it makes no difference if you have 89 or 90 losses. Hopefully the Mets & Mariners can win at least one of two left and make this a moot point.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#264079) #
Seattle will be facing Haren and Weaver - good chance it loses both games.

Could this unfolding scenario be the real reason why the Jays are starting Jenkins over Villanueva today?
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#264081) #
The way Villy has pitched lately I'd think odds of losing with him are higher. 8.10 ERA in September, team is 1 win 4 losses in his starts. 10 home runs in 26 2/3 IP is the reason.

Jenkins on the other hand has a 4.15 ERA in his 2 starts, 8 2/3 IP allowing 4 runs on 6 hits, 4 walks, 6 K's 1 HR 1 HBP. Jenkins could be part of the 2013 rotation or at least a backup. Villy won't be most likely. Seems an easy choice.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#264085) #
Yeah, Villanueva probably doesn't provide a better chance of winning tonight's game. I see that Minnesota has roughed him up in his career, too (956 OPS against).

But really, if the Jays are going to sign a FA who has been made a qualifying offer, they will be much better off having a protected pick - it would mean the difference between a top ten-calibre selection and someone way down the list.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#264086) #

Except that AA has stated clearly, in every recent interview, that he IS going to change. He has stated that he will go after free agents, he will boost the payroll, he's not focusing on prospects any more, he is in "win now" mode.

I understand your skepticism, but your skepticism has slipped into outright cynicism, which is probably not warranted. To be fair, we should wait and see if AA does what he is promising to do. If he fails to do it, then let's criticize him. But let's give him a chance first.

AA also said he did not envision the payroll skyrocketing either. If he starts making trades for players (say, Justin Upton for example), then he is trading away the one thing he spent three years trying to build (the farm system). At this point, I think the Jays should hold on to Sanchez/Nicolino/Syndergaard with a vice grip. Don't let any of them go. But that is why free agency is the better option, because then all he would be giving up is money, not assets. You can bet if he goes after Upton or Felix Hernandez, or players of that kind, he will have to part with his top prospects. No way around it.


Last off-season was different from this off-season, because the Jays were still in rebuilding mode. Circumstances have changed. The Jays have done all of the preliminary things that they wanted to do (rebuild the farm system, acquire young core players such as Lawrie and Rasmus, sign long-term contracts with key middle-of-the-order hitters such as Bautista and Encarnacion, etc). Now they have no excuses, and I think AA fully realizes that.

But practically everyone on the team, save for Encarnacion and Morrow, regressed this season. I'm not sure how AA could feel last season's team wasn't ready, yet next season's team (which won't have Drabek and Hutchison as top prospects to plug into the rotation) is somehow ready for pieces to be added for a run. The team needs a 2B, LF,  DH/1B (whichever Encarnacion is not playing), and at least two MLB starters, and on top of that they need their core players to bounce back (Bautista, Lawrie, Rasmus, Escobar, Romero, Santos, etc, etc, etc). I mean, the latter could happen, and maybe if Farrell/Murphy/Walton are sacked it becomes more probable, but how can AA possibly rely on that at this point?

If they went out and got Darvish last season, sure, they still finish 4th place this season, but they would have Darvish next season too. AA, by his own accord, was in "asset building" stage the first three years on the job. Unfortunately, it was only "cheap as dirt" assets, and not something better than that. I don't blame AA for that. He is doing what ownership wants him to.


Let's give AA a chance to stick to his plan and follow his strategy. If he fails to spend in the coming off-season, then he will have clearly broken his promise. But let's wait and see.

I was somewhat disappointed in the last off-season because I thought the Jays had a chance at the 2nd wild-card if they had acquired a good pitcher and DH, but in retrospect it was probably a bit too early -- and that was probably AA's thinking too. Let's wait and see.

I have no problem letting AA do this thing. Like I said, this is reality. The Jays are being built like the Rays. Rogers wants to win by spending as little as possible. Once revenue increases (i.e. playoff appearances), then adding payroll will be less of a burden on the bottomline, so I have no doubt the Jays will increase spending at least to league average levels eventually, but that intiial playoff berth that all of us have been waiting nearly two decades for will come in the form of a low (relative to league) $85 million payroll, and it will only be that high because existing talent is becoming more expensive.

That's not me being angry; that is simply the way the team wants to build a winner.

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#264088) #
I have no doubt the Jays will increase spending at least to league average levels eventually

I am not convinced of this. Take a hard look at the data re the Jays' payroll history in relation to the league average. The Jays have a long way to go before they reach the average (which itself is going to continue to rise steadily - the Jays will have to increase its payroll a lot (a) just to get to league average and (b) to keep up).

Consider also that several years ago we were musing about the Canadian dollar weakness as a significant factor. The loonie is now above par, yet the Jays are still penny-pinching and have already missed some key opportunities to strengthen the team.

Smoke and mirrors. It's all about placating the fans just enough to keep them coming out.
China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#264089) #
"....The Jays are being built like the Rays. Rogers wants to win by spending as little as possible...."

If the Jays sign a free agent this off-season (not a reliever, but a mid-rotation starter or better, or a top-calibre DH or outfielder), will you be willing to admit that you were wrong? if the owners want to spend "as little as possible," they certainly won't be signing any free agents. But AA has stated repeatedly that the Jays will be players in the free agent market. By January, we'll know who's right on this.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#264091) #
That might be accurate.  If so, I guess the whole point of the Hill for Johnson move was to hope that Johnson would decline arbitration and that the pick would follow.  Which would explain the ridiculous musings about shifting Johnson to left-field. 

The difference between this club and the Jays of 1979-80 or the Rays of 2004 is that this club each year holds out the hope of winning. You would think that this might eventually breed terminal cynicism.  Will fans eventually stop coming?  Perhaps more importantly, will they cancel their Sportsnet subscriptions, and go outside to watch baseball at Christie Pits or wherever a local team is playing, or (even better) start playing more themselves? 

Beyonder - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#264092) #
"At this point, I think the Jays should hold on to Sanchez/Nicolino/Syndergaard with a vice grip. Don't let any of them go."

I am glad to see this sentiment building steam. I agree with it mostly, but would point out that many here would have said the same thing about Nestor Molina (this site's then 6th-ranked prospect) last year. I have a lot of faith in AA's ability to look past the numbers and distinguish between the guys whose stuff will translate to MLB success, and those who won't. While it's not fair to say (yet) that Molina's earlier numbers were a mirage, AA looks pretty good for having parted with Molina as opposed to Syndergaard or Hutchison or Sanchez. All bets are off, though, if you can grab Felix.

I think the statements from AA about the Jays no longer being in rebuilding mode are pure marketing. This year started off with some very promising attendence figures, only to see it taper off as the season went into the tank. AA knows that the youth movement pitch he preached last off-season has lost most of its sheen, and that the fans' patience has worn thin. The "free agent" talk is his way of generating excitement. Unfortunately, having committed himself to this plan of action, there is no way to back away from it if the market does not shape up in the Jays favour.

I see two scary possibilities that I hope the Jays avoid: 1) The free agent market for starters goes beserk. Greinke gets Cole Hamels money despite not being a remotely Cole Hamels quality pitcher, and the price of the rest of the market gets dragged upward. The Jays reach, and overspend on second or third-tier leftovers. 2) The Jays get priced out of the market entirely, and AA guts the system hoping for the next Gio.
China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#264095) #
"....Will fans eventually stop coming?...."

But attendance rose significantly this year. I think I read that the average attendance is up by 3500 per game. The Jays would be very stupid to ignore that signal and allow cynicism to build. That's why this off-season will be such a test. If they refuse to make any substantial increase in payroll, they're wasting the attendance momentum of 2012. The smart thing to do is to capitalize on the rising fan interest and rising attendance and start spending and acquiring some "win now" starting pitchers and hitters. It's hard to believe that the Jays would be stupid enough to ignore all logic on this.... Although admittedly anything is possible...
Gerry - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#264096) #

I don't agree with the Sanchez/Nicolino/Syndergaard comment.  First, chances are only one of them will be a stud.  Second, everything has value.  If you get an offer you can't refuse then you have to take it.  To give an extreme example, let's say there is a deal on the table for a #1 pitcher, Felix Hernandez, then you have to let one of them go.  Maybe some team falls in love with Aaron Sanchez and thinks he is their number 1 target and is willing to open the bank, then you have to go.

This will be a different off-season for the Jays.  Pressure is building on many fronts to compete next season.  The Fans have come out in 2012; Beeston promised contention; and AA is under increasing pressure to deliver.  I would expect that one of those three will be dealt this off-season.  AA went to Lansing several times this year and he saw all three pitch twice.  Why?  He knows he may have to deal one and needs to feel comfortable with his choice.The Jays have an understanding of the kids value and those kids are part of the Jays most valuable assets.

If you are going to trade for a valuable piece for 2013 who are you going to give in return if not one of those kids?  Gose, Hechavarria, D'Arnaud, Marisnick and the "Lansing three" are the Jays best minor league trading pieces.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#264098) #
Heck, for King Felix they can pick any 2 of the Lansing 3 and one of the big kids (Gose/Hechavarria/d'Arnaud/Marisnick/Sierra). That is the minimum for an ace, and it probably takes more. Risky as Felix is signed for just 2 more years, so you'd want to negotiate with him first to push it to a 3-5 year deal but well worth shooting for. Prospects are important, but they are lottery tickets and if someone offers you $1 million for your ticket that could win $10 mil or $0 then you have to think seriously about taking that deal.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#264101) #

If the Jays sign a free agent this off-season (not a reliever, but a mid-rotation starter or better, or a top-calibre DH or outfielder), will you be willing to admit that you were wrong? if the owners want to spend "as little as possible," they certainly won't be signing any free agents. But AA has stated repeatedly that the Jays will be players in the free agent market. By January, we'll know who's right on this.

Sure, but I don't see it happening, for a number of reasons. AA has yet to sign anyone, whether it be free agent or a current Jay, to a player-friendly contract. All of the contracts AA has given out, even to Jose Bautista, have either been a one year deal or involved a team option(s) for well below market value. I can't see AA throwing cost effectiveness away for a mid-tier free agent....and it will have to be a mid-tier free agent because if the organization refuses to go above five years on a contract, then no star free agent (unless he is closing in on 40 years old) will even consider the Jays as a viable option.

AA saying he will be a player in the free agent market is all spin. Of course he is going to say that. The team started the year with so much fan interest and finished with a massive thud. He is going to have to say that to keep the bandwagon at least partially filled if he wants fan interest to continue in 2013-beyond. If he doesn't or can't deliver, he will preach the same thing he did last off-season (payroll parameters, young kids, etc), except now he will have injuries to add to the excuses.

Hell, at this point, I hope they avoid the free agent market. There won't be a Darvish or Fielder situation out there now (young, high upside, star, no interest from big market teams, etc). They blew their chance on that one.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#264103) #

I don't agree with the Sanchez/Nicolino/Syndergaard comment.  First, chances are only one of them will be a stud.  Second, everything has value.  If you get an offer you can't refuse then you have to take it.  To give an extreme example, let's say there is a deal on the table for a #1 pitcher, Felix Hernandez, then you have to let one of them go.  Maybe some team falls in love with Aaron Sanchez and thinks he is their number 1 target and is willing to open the bank, then you have to go.

Normally, I would agree with you. If the team functioned as a team that was ready to win the World Series every year, then I would absolutely agree with you. Unfortunately, this is a team, as I mentioned before, that wants to build like the Rays. The Jays want to have cost controlled talent. They want to develop talent to avoid paying the cost of the free agent and trade market. They want to be able to sustain winning for 10 years (or whatever it was) rather than go for broke for a year or two. All of that points to keeping the high upside talent and using the overvalued or expendable talent in trades. That's why Nestor Molina was traded, and why I expect someone like Sean Nolin to be dealt this off-season. AA has been pretty darn good at deals that involve trading prospects, as only Tim Collins (off the top of my head) has had any type of success since being traded.

I agree that prospects, especially pitching prospects, are often fool's gold. If you can turn them into MLB stars, do it and run. My issue with the Jays is, I don't think they will spend money until they make the playoffs on a below league average payroll. They want to be the Rays, and MIGHT start spending like the Rangers if they can sustain winning on a small payroll, but in order to do that they have to build from within, or develop a Bautista/EE out of thin air every year.

I don't want to see the Lansing Three traded only for the team to continue to cheap out. If you are going to trade one or two of them, then make sure you are all in and ready to spend enough to put yourself in a position to win. I doubt the Jays are ready to do that. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong.

China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#264104) #
".....He is going to have to say that to keep the bandwagon at least partially filled if he wants fan interest to continue in 2013-beyond...."

If this is all merely a PR strategy by Anthopoulos, it's a very bad one, and hardly seems plausible as a strategy at all. If he has no intention of spending money during the off-season, his spin will be exposed as a lie by January, and that would cause a serious backlash, which would affect ticket sales and everything else. It's the stupidest possible PR tactic to adopt.

Right now, AA is raising expectations. Raising expectations and then dashing those expectations is guaranteed to cause a backlash -- worse than if he had never made those promises. Ask any PR professional. If you don't intend to keep your promises, you shouldn't be repeating them. I'm sure AA is smart enough to know that you don't raise expectations if you have no intention of fulfilling them, because it just makes the fans more angry and more cynical, which is the very last thing he wants.
Mike D - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#264109) #

In all my years of following the team, I have never been more certain about an offseason prediction than this:  SK in NJ's prediction is absolutely correct.  The offseason will be cheap, and it will be risk-averse in terms of trading prospects.  "Internal improvement," "focus on development," "payroll parameters," "if everything breaks right," 'we just need to get healthy."  Rinse and repeat.  There's cynicism, and then there's relying on every available shred of evidence since AA's appointment.  Also, all cynicism aside, each of these cliches have some merit in the context of the Jays; they're just not as likely to improve the '13 team as would be an infusion of above-average veteran talent.

Don't be too caught up in PR expectations and repercussions, because only hardcore fans (a distinct minority in Toronto) parse through AA's interviews to try to read the offseason tea leaves.  Casual fans will either notice acquisitions when they are announced on TSN, Sportsnet or the papers, or they will check in next April.  I don't think there will be any meaningful backlash in respect of AA's comments.  There is a much more real, and much less avoidable, chance of a backlash based on this poor season, and query whether a mid-level signing like an Edwin Jackson would even matter to the '13 outlook of the casual fan who's been disappointed by the '12 team.  I know I'd have a tough time persuading Rogers (or, the more relevant test, guaranteeing to Rogers) that Edwin Jackson would definitely generate enough revenue to justify 3/$30.

It's the Rays, only without as good of a minor league developmental regime; without Maddon; and without a string of top-5 draft picks (yet, I suppose) to develop or trade.

I'll take SK's prediction a step further:  They won't sign any MLB free agents to eight-figure contracts.  That's *total* contract value, not *annual* contract value.  If they take on more than $10 million in commitments for any one player, it will be by way of an extension, a trade-and-extend or a trade for an underachieving player like Morneau with a year or two left on their contract.  There's also a possibility they'll sign an Hechevarria-type IFA to a $10-15 million deal.

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#264111) #
There's also a possibility they'll sign an Hechevarria-type IFA to a $10-15 million deal.

This is no longer permitted under the new CBA (at least, without penalties). Players like Soler, Cespedes, Martin and Puig represented the last chance to sign IFAs at market rates without penalties (however, I believe Japanese players are exempt; in other words, they will still be available under the closed-bid system that governed the Darvish signing).
China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#264112) #
".....They won't sign any MLB free agents to eight-figure contracts...."

Just a few weeks ago, the Jays signed a pending MLB free agent to a $29-million contract. His name is Edwin Encarnacion. If they wanted to avoid eight-figure contracts, they could easily have avoided that contract. They could have claimed that they tried to negotiate with EE but were unable to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement and, much to their regret, he was reluctantly allowed to depart. That would have been easy spin. Instead they gave him $29-million. So I don't see any reason to assume that it could never happen again. (And I don't see a huge distinction between a free agent and a player who is within a couple months of free agency.)
Mike D - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#264114) #

But there is a huge distinction, China fan.  They were the only team allowed to negotiate with Edwin at the time.  They can trade certainty and stability for a hometown discount without allowing a bidding war to start.  It's a very different matter to compete against other teams in terms of years and dollars during the free agency bidding, especially for a losing cold-weather team on turf.

Nobody can suggest that the Jays' goal is to absolutely minimize payroll.  But they are value-focused -- so value-focused as to tolerate glaring holes on the team if they can't be filled at an excellent value.  They may well lock up a Lawrie, but they won't outbid 29 other teams for an FA.  At least not one of obvious consequence.

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#264115) #
If AA and Beeston start to pander to the fans' desire to go all in for 2013, the Jays are pretty much done IMO (although they might get a flag in the short term). If they'd listened to Wilner a couple of years ago, the team would have signed Figgins to play third base and Crawford to play LF. This year the clamouring will be for, I don't know, Peavy and Swisher.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#264116) #
If this were the Rays and the real strategy was as SK has it, the logical thing to do would be to trade Bautista and Encarnacion for prospects/younger players as soon as possible.  I don't think that will happen.  Instead, I am pretty sure that the club will be neither fish nor fowl. 
China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#264118) #
"....they won't outbid 29 other teams for an FA...."

They don't have to outbid 29 other teams for an FA. Often you only need to outbid a few teams. It's not an impossible task, and it doesn't require $200-million. And just because Anthopoulos has sought value in the past doesn't necessarily mean that he is incapable of outbidding other teams in the future. Or would you prefer a spendthrift GM who consistently spends too much money on every contract, past and future?

Anthopoulos achieved value in the past. Does that condemn him to be a miser in the future? I don't think it logically follows.

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#264121) #
"Neither fish nor fowl" is a pretty good summary of the Jays over the last 20 years.
Mike D - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#264124) #

Anthopoulos achieved value in the past. Does that condemn him to be a miser in the future? I don't think it logically follows.

I would argue that he achieved value AND has been a miser in the past, either by choice or by ownership's fiat.  That's what condemns him to be a miser in the future.  Darren Oliver is the richest major league free agent signing of AA's three-year career ($7M if option is picked up).  He and Cordero were both guaranteed $4.5 million -- AA's record for guaranteed MLB FA money.

Look, it's not that I "prefer a spendthrift GM."  AA has demonstrated very clear value parameters and is very quick to walk away from bidding wars in terms of dollars, years or prospects (when the target is a non-FA on the trading block).  For any given bidding war, the strategy can be, and likely is, sensible.  But when the outcome is you start the 2012 season counting on Henderson Alvarez AND Kyle Drabek AND Dustin McGowan (!) for your starting rotation, that's miserly.  It was also miserly to start the 2011 season with literally no third baseman on the major league roster, such that you have to move your superstar right fielder to third against his wishes.  (That plan ultimately worked out okay, after they converted Lawrie to 3B and dealt with his injury suffered in the minors while he was being held there for service time reasons.  Certainly better than the 2012 starting rotation gamble.)

I understand not wanting to overpay for an apartment when you move to a new city, but if you have a comfortable amount of money, it's irrationally miserly to sleep in a bus shelter because you think the monthly rent of every apartment you check out is too high.  Sometimes you have to suck it up and pay market value to get a place you can live in.  At least one would think so.  The Jays under AA have been perfectly willing to sleep in bus shelters when they think the rent is too high.

bpoz - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#264125) #
I am going to add 10 wins to the 2012 record because I feel that the injuries were a big factor.

I think TamRa makes sense by saying his prediction is +-3.

I think for 2010 & 2011 I think adding 3-4 wins for Eveland & JoJo Reyes. So I am saying IMO that winning in 2010 & 2011 was not the top priority.

Hopefully the next rebuild will be far in the future. So now we try to win 90+ games which I think can be done. It took 90+ wins this year.

If I knew how to compare C Sale & R Romero for their 2011 & 2012 contributions, then I would tell you. But I cannot.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#264127) #
I think the value of free agent contracts for pitchers will surprise many this off-season. Probably at least 20 teams need pitching, new TV contracts kick in in 2014, and there are new owners for several teams.

I believe the value of the new TV contracts is around $24M per team per season, again starting in 2014. Most teams have 6-8 "full dollar" guys (over 6 years service, non part time players). That means teams can offer $3M to $4M more per season to free agents. That's $20M more on a five year deal.

I don't see AA paying those inflated dollars in a bidding war for any players. I agree with Mike, AA will be looking in the bargain section of the market.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#264132) #
Yeah, that new TV deal is crazy. $51.7 million per team per year from 2014 to 2021. Double the old deal. That means every ML team now can plan on an extra $25+ million a year in free money (they do nothing to get it, they just get it).

Now, in a rational market that would be pure profit for the owner. You gain nothing by spending it as being in 1st or last makes no difference to how much of that cash you get. But baseball is not rational - it will be available to spend for most teams. Mix in that if that money has doubled then most teams local deals are double the old value and you should see some crazy bidding wars this winter.

The smart things to do...

A) try to trade for 'bad contract, good player' situations as those bad contracts will look a lot better come February if salaries increase

B) Jump in quick and hard and see if a top free agent will sign early on for more than he expected to get. Some players will enter with a dollar figure in mind, but if the market jumps they adjust. If you hit that dollar figure though in early November then the player might take it rather than risk waiting. If the market jumps then you look like a genius.

C) See if any Japanese free agents are worth chasing - they aren't subject to limits so you can go nuts on them.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#264134) #

To the best of my knowledge, Win or Lose, Toronto concludes the season with a top ten protected pick (#10).  That was a "must have", it will give A.A. options.   To finish the season with at least 2.1 million fans, 20,106 fans must attend the final game of the year.   This will be tougher, but with 338,632 fans so far since September 1, it's do-able.   It all depends on how many people want to attend the final game of the year.

I agree with John Northey's post: Yeah, that new TV deal is crazy.  Serious thought must be put into Free Agency and Trades starting this season to be ahead of the pack.   The "new" "new" "new" Moneyball is staying a year ahead of everyone on upcoming changes.  Something that A.A. might have been a little lax on lately.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 01:46 AM EDT (#264135) #
If the Jays win tomorrow and the Mets lose their 2013 first round pick is unprotected.
hypobole - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 02:44 AM EDT (#264137) #
Richard, the 1st 10 picks are protected. Because the Pirates didn't sign Mark Appel last year, they pick 9th. So only the bottom 9 finishers this year get a protected pick.
McNulty - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#264152) #
 I don't see AA paying those inflated dollars in a bidding war for any players. I agree with Mike, AA will be looking in the bargain section of the market.

And because of an injury riddled '12, David Ortiz should fit this category. Yes, please.

If it's for King Felix, all bets are off.

The Mariners won't trade him.  Maybe for both EE and Bautista. Maybe.

Like many others, I don't think the Jays will be big spenders if the off-season. That certainly doesn't mean it won't be an active off-season.

My predictions.

The Jays bump the about 15-20 million through taking on some salary in trades. Their signings will be a two year deal for Ortiz to play DH and Shaun Marcum on a one year deal. 

For a second consecutive winter, I will predict that Gordon Beckham is acquired. He is an A.A. type of player. 

Oh hell....Let's get really bold. The Jays trade Nicolino and two lower prospects to get Masterson and Choo.

Rotation

1. Morrow
2. Marcum
3. Romero
4. Masterson
5. Happ

Lineup

SS Escobar
LF Choo
RF Bautista
1B Edwin
DH Ortiz
3B Lawrie
CF Rasmus
C   Arencibia
2B Beckham
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#264154) #
Will Marcum take a one year deal?
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#264155) #
Richard, the 1st 10 picks are protected. Because the Pirates didn't sign Mark Appel last year, they pick 9th. So only the bottom 9 finishers this year get a protected pick. Are we sure of this, because it seems a bit bizarre - Pittsburg's compensation pick is already protected (as a comp pick)isn't it?
John Northey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#264156) #
I'd be shocked if Marcum took a one year deal. Pitchers with lifetime 110 ERA+'s who have shown the ability to throw 200 IP, even coming off an injury year, tend to get 3 year deals worth $10 mil+ a year. Given this winter will be a silly money winter most likely I fully expect Marcum to be starting at $10 per over 3 and going up from there, especially given his last 3 starts (Sept/Oct) were all 6 IP allowing 1 or 2 runs each time thus showing he is healthy.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#264157) #
Choo would be a nice fit for this club, but he is a free agent in 2014 and Boras is his agent.  Trading for him would be "playing against type" for AA. 
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#264161) #
Has Marcum ever pitched a season without arm trouble?
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#264162) #
ayj, Jim Callis on BA recently confirmed the info about protected picks. First ten picks only will be protected, and Pittsburgh's comp pick for Appel will be one of them.

Mets play at 4:10 pm today, so we should know what (if anything) is at stake when the Jays take the field tonight.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#264163) #

If this were the Rays and the real strategy was as SK has it, the logical thing to do would be to trade Bautista and Encarnacion for prospects/younger players as soon as possible.  I don't think that will happen.  Instead, I am pretty sure that the club will be neither fish nor fowl. 

I think the goal of the franchise is to win with a low payroll, so having Bautista and Encarnacion locked up to below market value contracts will only help in possibly reaching that goal (as opposed to Vernon's deal, for example, which was way above market value with no chance of helping the team win). That is probably why AA started Spring Training with Alvarez, Cecil, and McGowan pencilled into the rotation, and started the season with Drabek and Carreno (and eventually Hutchison) replacing Cecil and McGowan in the rotation. The only way the Jays have any real shot at building a cost effective pitching staff and to win without spending money is to develop their own starters. That is basically the backbone of Tampa's emergence and likely the avenue AA wants to emulate. AA took a foolish gamble by going with all youth in the rotation in 2012 and it resulted in lost development time (Alvarez), injuries (Drabek/Hutchison), and regression (Carreno). That likely explains why he traded so many prospects for J.A. Happ and why he will probably make a comparable trade this winter for a not-too-expensive rotation option (for some reason Brett Anderson is the guy I keep thinking of given his one year + 2 team options contract and his injury history making him more obtainable).

AA is obsessed with value. Bautista and EE are value-based contracts. He will hold on to them as long as he can (or as long as they are worth the contracts). We can only hope that some time soon, hopefully 2013, is when all the stars align and the Jays finally win on a small payroll. Then maybe Rogers will see the increased revenue and start spending more. That's really the only hope. The Jays will never do a Rays or Nats type of rebuild, which is probably why the team has been spinning its wheels for nearly 20 years.

Spifficus - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#264165) #

SK, the Bautista and Encarnacion contracts are only below market value considering what they have done after. There was significant risk of regression at the time they were made, and this risk is what made them mutually benefitial.

As for Brett Anderson, sign me up. I'm also hoping that Rick Porcello has worn a bit thin in Detriot; he's had a significant uptick in velocity this year, but his ERA isn't being helped by that infield defense.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#264166) #
I don't agree with that.  Encarnacion and Bautista are good-value contracts, but are of much more value to another team than the Jays (under the "budget-buy" theory of talent acquisition) because of the team's poor situation for 2013 and the ages of the players. The contracts may not look that way after 2013...

Did I mention that I am ready for a new owner any time?

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#264168) #
I'm surprised there hasn't been much commentary on the reversed standings issue. It would certainly be icing on the cake in this season from hell if they actually lost first round protection.

Sign David Ortiz ? Maybe, but a wealthy team like the Red Sox would be quite comfortable giving him a 1 year qualifying offer of 12-13 million dollars to protect their asset. With all this new T.V.  money sloshing around they certainly could afford it. Would A.A be willing to give up a first round top 10 pick ( and all the slot money that goes with it ) to sign Big Papi?

I imagine even the Brewers would think long and hard about qualifying Shawn Marcum in what could well be an inflated market.

Really the time to spend would have been in these past few years before all the loop holes in the new CBA and fresh media revenue came into effect. I do think the team will pursue non qualified mid tier free agents this winter , but frankly I don't expect , or really want them to, chase the really top end increasingly expensive guys ( especially if it means losing a top 10 pick).






greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#264169) #
Breaking out the FA charge card didn't work prior to 2006 when the Jays overpaid for Burnett and Ryan. Do we really want to go down that road again? Some people have short memories.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#264170) #
Big game in Oakland tonight - who'd have thunk that Texas might end up getting downgraded to wild card status?
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#264171) #

My appologies.   The site I was using (TSN) doesn't always update fast enough - My Fault.   The three Teams playing for ther last 2 protected spots are:

Toronto         72  89   .447.   Toronto is playing Minnesota (who cannot improve potential their draft pick) and starting their best Pitcher, Brandon Morrow (has something to play for).   Chances of a loss are slim.

Kansas City    72  89   .447.   KC is playing Detroit (who's clinched 1st in AL Central) and only Miguel Cabrera has anything to play for.   KC beat Detroit yesterday.  Chances of repeating that feat are slim.

NY Mets         73  88   .453.   NY is playing Miami.  This is more about who shows up to play and not just go through the motions.   NY is a better team right now, but that means nothing.

R Romero Vaughan - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#264172) #

I know the effect of the Appel pick according to MLB on protected picks but it really is a very odd ruling.

If, for arguments sake, 6 of the top 10 hadn't signed, only the worst 4 teams the following year would have protected picks. Not really sure how this achieves the purpose of this protected pick rule, to help the strugglers!

I also echo the other sentiments - the thought of losing the number 10 overall pick for someone like Marcum or Ortiz is not very great, especially after the season from hell.

Magpie - are the Jays allowed to lose the last game accidentally on purpose? I always want the Jays to win and understand the karma argument but 1 game vs the Twins for a protected pick?

How typical it would be Morrow

 

 

 

 

 

 

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#264173) #
I know suggesting trading Bautista and EE is sacrilegious, but consider the A's. They traded Gio, Cahill, Bailey, Sweeney and others (and let Willingham and Dejesus go), and somehow got a lot better. This is what their director of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi, said in spring training:

“There was a need to infuse a quantity of talent into the system. And when you’re looking to do that, you have to be willing to give up your best assets. You have to start from the top in terms of guys you’re willing to shop.”
Wildrose - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#264174) #
In the event of 2 teams ending with the same record , the tie breaker is the previous years standings, so we all ready are 1 game up on K.C. and would loose the tie breaker with the Mets.

Also even if the Jays retain the protected pick there still is a cost to pursuing qualified free agents. Instead of losing your first rounder, you give up your second rounder ( and perhaps more importantly the slot money that goes with it ).

It'll be interesting to see if an organization such as Toronto which seems to put a lot of value on the amateur draft switches gears and goes after qualified free agents.





ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#264175) #
Yes, KC has clinched a protected pick. If we win and the Mets lose, the Mets get the last protected pick. We can still get the eighth pick (if the difference between 8 and 10 is important to you) if we lose and KC wins.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#264176) #

I don't agree with that.  Encarnacion and Bautista are good-value contracts, but are of much more value to another team than the Jays (under the "budget-buy" theory of talent acquisition) because of the team's poor situation for 2013 and the ages of the players. The contracts may not look that way after 2013...

I agree. Hell, if I was GM and knew ownership had no intention of increasing payroll any time soon, I would have dealt Bautista for Mike Trout last winter back when the Angels were throwing money around like it was nothing. In sports a team should try to be really good or really bad. The Jays, for the last two decades, have decided to do neither. That is why they are where they are. The reason Bautista and EE are sticking around is because it gives the team a chance to make the playoffs on a small payroll, assuming everything else breaks right. Otherwise, the team stays competitive, sells hope, and accomplishes nothing. That's all Rogers wants. They would never allow a true rebuild.


Did I mention that I am ready for a new owner any time?

I'm right there with you.

MatO - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#264177) #

Breaking out the FA charge card didn't work prior to 2006 when the Jays overpaid for Burnett and Ryan. Do we really want to go down that road again? Some people have short memories.

Well we wouldn't want to do something like that.  Why would we want to improve the team today by spending Rogers' money?  It's much better to hail the move to get rid of Vernon Wells so that Rogers can pocket the savings..

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#264178) #
I am in favour of aggressively pursuing young, very talented players who will be under control for a long time and do not cost the team draft picks or its best prospects. Hence my advocacy for Darvish and Soler. I was also cautiously pro-Jackson and Kuroda and Beltran last off-season; while not young, there was limited downside to adding them, given their contractual demands.

However, I am generally not in favour giving older free agents (i.e., those on the wrong side of 30) lengthy and expensive contracts. These often turn out to be busts. For example, I would not be in favour of giving players like Peavy, Lohse or Swisher (all of whom I like) contracts in the range of 4-6 years at $18M+ per year. I think it's daft.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#264179) #
2 Players k/9 bb/9 xFIP SIERA ERA
Player A 7.86 2.62 3.79 3.75 3.53
Player B 7.23 1.94 4.00 3.87 4.33

Both potential free agents. One much more expensive. One of MG's herbal tea's to the correct respondent.
Chuck - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#264180) #

Big game in Oakland tonight

If you are planning to follow the game live, note that it's actually an afternoon game starting at 3:30 EST. Dempster vs. Griffin.

James W - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#264181) #
I'd have said Greinke's the expensive one, but he's over 8 k/9 on the season. So I'll guess that the expensive one is Dempster and the other is Bartolo Colon, perhaps?
Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#264182) #
I know suggesting trading Bautista and EE is sacrilegious, but consider the A's.

Are the A's really a model for success? Fangraphs had a piece on the rookie rotation last week:
Since 1947, there have been 85 teams who have had rookies start at least 60 games. Three teams reached the postseason: the 1952 Dodgers, 1984 Royals and 2003 Giants.
Those are some pretty long odds. How often do a batch of young pitchers stay healthy and develop quickly? Just look at the Jays' luck, which is full of stall-outs and injuries. You could argue the A's know something the Jays don't, but the A's success is still still freakish. Will everyone still be healthy & effective next year? Will the next generation of young pitchers

Besides, not all of those moves were made in the interest of improving the team. Trading Gio Gonzalez is only an improvement if, like the A's owners, you think a team should spend as little money as possible.

They're also still mired near the bottom of the league in attendance. It's tough to generate fan interest if you trade off all your star players every year or two.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#264183) #

This season can be seen as existing in three parts.  April 02 - June 15 (lost 3 Starters in 4 days): 32-32 and holding a playoff spot, or close to it.   June 16 - July 28: 19 - 17 and still close to a playoff spot.   July 29 - October 02 (with 1 game to play): 21 - 40, call it playing out the string.   From this A.A. has determined Pitching must be obtained.  

If trading for Pitching, the price will be high.  

As for young, controllable MLB-ready prospects A.A. might have to trade.    Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) has improved his stock since his call-up.   He will be sought after in any trade talks.   Anthony Gose (CF) has gotten better in his "2nd half" (82 ABs - 81 ABs and counting).   His stock has improved enough to be sought after in trade talks.   Moises Sierra (RF) started well (.284, .312, ..432), then the pitchers adjusted, or he tried to do too much.   He needs to show he`s adjusted to the pitchers to be as highly sought after as the others.   Travis d`Arnaud (C) has depressed trade value (but still top prospect status) due to his latest injury (even thought it`s thought to be relatively minor) and possible injury-risk status.  He needs to stay healthy for a year before he`s top trade value again.   Henderson Alvarez (RHP) is an ideal trade item, exactly what everyone wants, but only if an Ace, No.1 Stud, is coming back.   I think Chad Jenkins has gained considerably in trade value.   It is just possible Brett Cecil (LHP) has trade value. 

As for other Prospects, their value is not the same for everyone.   There will be a truer read on prospects once Buffalo comes into use, so some of our personal prospect evaluations might be off.   The Outfield and Starters are producing a surplus of valued prospects, so someone might be traded from the groups.   The first Big Three of Sanchez, Syndergaard and Nicolino (still 2-4 years away) is being challenged by Roberto Osuna, Sean Nolin, Adonys Cardona (even further away) to name a few.   Their value to the Big Club is more in trades, than in being MLB-ready for the Team, and right now that is all that matters.   Fears that A.A. will gut the Farm system is ludicrous, the system is much too strong for that to happen.   A.A. should not be unwilling to trade anyone if the right value can be obtained. 

ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#264185) #
Fangraphs has Grienke at 7.86 k/9.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

So I'll give you Player A. Player B is interesting because of his recent statement that he'd play on a one-year deal if necessary (which it won't be) and he's not looking for Grienke-money. Regardless, I think he's underperformed his peripherals somewhat and if available on a 3-year deal, Dan Haren would be someone worth considering (no herbal teas for anyone).
92-93 - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#264186) #
"Breaking out the FA charge card didn't work prior to 2006 when the Jays overpaid for Burnett and Ryan. Do we really want to go down that road again? Some people have short memories."

While giving that big a contract to Ryan was always a bad idea based on the volatile nature of RP, the Burnett contract worked out quite well for the Jays.
James W - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#264188) #
Those are Greinke's AL stats only. He struck out 122 in 123.0 IP with the Brewers.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#264190) #
Those are Greinke's AL stats only. He struck out 122 in 123.0 IP with the Brewers Zounds! I can't do this thing right.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#264191) #
Burnett produced BRef WAR of 1.7, 2.2 and 2.1 during his three years in Toronto. Which is fine, but nothing to write home about. Didn't the Jays give Burnett one of the highest AAV contracts for a starting pitcher at the time?
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#264194) #
Though his fWAR was 11.3 over those three years. It was a high value at the time he signed, but not by the time he left.
hypobole - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#264196) #
Burnett earned $28.6 mill for the total of 6.0 WAR he provided the Jays, then 2 picks when he left which turned out to be Paxton/Syndergaard and Marisnick. The $ per WAR is more or less a wash, which is actually pretty good. Don't forget that when you don't add a FA pitcher, the pitcher that ends up occupying that rotation spot is invariably the weakest starter on your staff.

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#264199) #
Thanks, ayj and hypobole. That makes sense, although I note that draft compensation may be a non-issue in many cases going forward (unless, of course, the pitcher is good enough to warrant a qualifying offer after his contract is up). And of course signing players who have received a QO means giving up a draft pick to obtain the player.

I guess my main concern is the supply/demand mismatch, which means that the few quality SPs available will command huge contracts. This is a risky move for a team with a below-average payroll. Remember when the Wells contract was still on the books? It was a major obstacle to revamping the team; the Jays just happened to be lucky enough to find a taker in LAA (Angel investors?). For every Burnett, there is a Lackey/Dice-K/Pavano...
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#264200) #
I don't follow the BBRef WAR calculations for Burnett.  In 2008, he threw 221 innings with an ERA+ of 104 and a much better FIP and xFIP than ERA.  BBRef has him at 2.1 WAR, which is an average player, but that simply cannot be right.  I see that BBRef uses an adjustment for the quality of the club's defence (from Total Zone).  That adjustment is strange, because that year he had an opposition BABIP of .314 despite allowing an average number of line drives and a high number of pop-ups. 

Anyways, one is probably better to take a mid-point between fWAR and BBRef WAR where they are wildly apart, as here.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#264204) #
"Remember when the Wells contract was still on the books? It was a major obstacle to revamping the team;"

It was? What's been done since that justifies this statement? Nothing that I can see.

"I guess my main concern is the supply/demand mismatch, which means that the few quality SPs available will command huge contracts. This is a risky move for a team with a below-average payroll."

Then stop being a below-average payroll and accept the cost of doing business, which includes the occasional failed FA signing.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#264209) #
Thinking about free agent pitchers, what is Dice-K like now? He was a super-hot prospect 5 years ago, but now?

His ERA+ this year is 57. His K/9 though is 8.1 (good) walks are at 3.9 (not good), and HR/9 is at 1.9 (very bad). Lifetime his HR/9 though is at 1.0, BB/9 4.3 and K/9 at 8.2. He catches me as well worth a giving a shot to - a one year with options and incentives (playing time) deal. That is if he wants to stay in MLB and doesn't run back to Japan. If his HR/9 gets under control (as it was before this year) he can be a solid #3/4 starter. Could his stuff work in the pen? Maybe - only one relief game in his 6 years so not tried yet.

Hey, would be a better risk than most AAAA guys and has potential of being a #2 if all goes well (ie: he pushes himself hard to prove he belongs) and if he flops then, depending on the deal, it wouldn't hurt too much.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#264210) #
The Jays (Rogers) are cheap. You can't change this fact; you may as well accept it (or find a new team to cheer for). Harsh, but true. Otherwise the smoke and mirrors will drive you up the wall.
MatO - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#264211) #

"Remember when the Wells contract was still on the books? It was a major obstacle to revamping the team;"

It was? What's been done since that justifies this statement? Nothing that I can see.

Um.  New desk for Zaun and Campbell? The repatriation of Hazel Mae?

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#264212) #
1-0 Mets
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#264217) #
3-0 Mets. I really want the Mets to win, so that I can root for Morrow tonight...
bpoz - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#264220) #
IMO a lot went right for the CWS this year, but the best they can do is 85 wins if they win today. So they too are not a good team ie 90+wins.

I also like Richard SS breaking the season down into 3 parts. Magpie may be able to do the pythogaras thing for each part. We can then discuss what part of the team was responsible for the successes & failures, and the effects of the the injuries.

We can then have dreams or nightmares on which R Romero will show up for 2013. Which Morrow, R Davis, EE etc... Every year there are a few +- surprises IMO. I think 2013 will be similar.
Mike Forbes - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#264221) #
I just wanted to stop in and say, go Oakland! Moneyball 2.0. So much fun to watch a team of nobodies dominate the overrated crew from North Texas.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#264224) #
The Mets just caught a huge break on a baserunning mistake by Gorkys Hernandez. Instead of bases loaded with none out, the Marlins had runners at first and third with one out. NY ultimately escaped with only one run allowed. Now 4-2 Mets heading to the bottom of the ninth.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#264225) #
4-2 Mets, to the bottom of the 9th.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#264227) #
Y'know, this has been fun. While we aren't cheering the Jays on we at least have teams to cheer on here in a method that helps the Jays in a weird way. Weird to cheer on the Mets though.

And the Mets win! Mets win! Jays in the bottom 9 of MLB!

Er...OK, that just was weird to be hoping for.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#264228) #
Mets win 4-2, Jays guaranteed at least #10 overall (and protected) pick in 2013. Nice.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#264232) #
Oakland wins A.L. West Division title while Texas, in an epic collapse, is forced into an one game playoff with a Team to be announced.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#264235) #
The difference between the 8th pick and 10th is about $200 K in slot value.  Spread through 10 rounds and adding a 4.999%, the difference might total $400 K or more in total slot value - a draft pick or two or more.  So how Toronto and KC finish today matters.
bpoz - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#264257) #
TB with 90 wins is out. Too bad. St Louis with 88 wins is in. Overall I am happy that the basically good teams got in, that is a good standard to aim for.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#264311) #
Yeah, there are worse things that cheering on the Jays. You could be a Leaf fan

Or, worse yet, you could be both. [looks at himself in mirror - Uh oh...]
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