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Baseball America has begun listing the top 20 prospects from each minor league.  The Arizona Rookie League was yesterday and today we see two Blue Jays in the GCL top 20.  BA will also have a chat following each list.  This thread will list all the Blue Jays making the lists over the next couple of weeks.

GCL Appy NW MidWest FSL EL PCL
#3 - DJ Davis, CF
#12 - Alberto Tirado, RHP
#8 - Roberto Osuna, rhp
#10 - Santiago Nessy, c
#14 - Daniel Norris, lhp
#20 - Taylor Cole, rhp #5 - Noah Syndergaard, rhp
#6 - Aaron Sanchez, rhp
#11 - Justin Nicolino, lhp
#11 - Jake Marisnick, CF #9 - Jake Marisnick, CF

#2 - Travis d'Arnaud, CA

#8 - Anthony Gose, CF

#14 - Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

Webster Awards Alberto Tirado, RHP Christian Lopes, 2B/SS Javier Avendano, RHP Justin Nicolino, LHP Daniel Barnes, RHP Ryan Goins, SS/2B Adeiny Hechavarria, SS


GCL:

BA notes Davis's speed, arm and wrist strength and a handsy swing.  They suggest he needs to work better on incorporating his bottom half into his swing and in recognizing breaking balls.  That describes most young hitters.

For Tirado BA says:  His fastball peaked at 91 mph when he signed, rose to 94 by the end of the year and sat at 91-94 with a high of 96 in the GCL.  Tirado has plus velocity and the ability to command his fastball down in the strike zone, an unusual combination for a player his age.  BA also notes that Tirado's change-up is good, better than his slider.

In the Q&A there were several Jays related questions:

Cardona had some arm soreness and because of his health issues and his lack of a breaking ball Ben Badler sees him as a reliever at best.

Yeyfry Del Rosario is a good strike thrower and is polished but Tirado's stuff is better.

Jairo Labourt would rank between Tirado and Del Rosario.  He sits 88-92 with a good curve.

Dawel Lugo is a gifted hitter but he swings at everything.  If he learns some plate discipline he could be a break-out candidate.  He could stick at short.

 

 

Appy League

BA notes Osuna's size, namely 230 pounds, and suggest he has fully developed, which in scouting terms means he has probably reached his potential with his fastball speed. That fastball sits 91-92 and is complemented by a very good change-up that Osuna can keep down in the zone. Osuna's future may depend on his breaking ball which needs development.

Santiago Nessy was complimented as being the best defensive catcher in the league. Nessy also has good bat speed and power but he is still a hacker.

Daniel Norris has good pitches but he has problems repeating his delivery.

Appy Q&A

Matt Dean might have the highest ceiling among the rest of the position players. He has good power.

Anderson looked lost at the plate.

Dwight Smith has good potential but he is not a centre fielder and needs to develop power to be a left fielder.

 

 

Northwest League

BA notes Cole has a good feel for pitching. If he can regain FB velocity he could be better. Because of his feel for pitching he could be a #5. Cole throws a 89-91 FB, a good slider and change-up.

NWL Q&A

Avendano can hit his spots but there is not much to get excited about.

Ben Badler reveals his just missed list and his sleepers but there are no Canadians listed.

 

 

Midwest League

Syndergaard is rated higher because of his stronger second half, plus better control.  One scout put an Adam wainright comp on Noah.

Sanchez has great "stuff" and makes it look easy.  Said one scout ""With his easy delivery and arm action, it looks like the kid is playing catch on the mound, the first pitch I saw was 97 and there was no effort at all to what he was doing."

Nicolino had the best stats.  Jose Valentin, ex major leaguer, said: "He knows how to get people out.  He works both sides of the plate with his breaking ball and he can come inside to righthanders. You never know what's coming because he can throw all three pitches in any count for a strike. You don't see too many lefthanders with that command."

MWL Q&A

All three Lansing pitchers will head to Dunedin for 2013.  It reminds Jim Callis of how the Rays handle pitchers.

All three pitchers look like starters for now.

Syndergaard and Sanchez should be top 100 prospects.

AA will be THE test for Kevin Pillar.  He is a grinder.

Scouts liked Anthony DeSclafani and Typer Ybarra

 

Florida State League

Jake Marisnick - Can he hit a breaking ball? His defense is outstanding.

FSL Q&A

Sean Nolin sits 90-92 with his Fb with a good change-up and curve.  he has some development left and should pitch in the big leagues.  2012 was a very good year for prospects so many good players did not make the top 20. 

 

Eastern League

Marisnick, like Gose, has 4 plus tools.  The question is on his hit tool.  The story notes Marisnick's improvment/development over his last four weeks in the EL.  The story also suggests Marisnick needs to be more selective at the plate.

EL Q&A

After Marisnick John Stilson is the best bet to be a major leaguer.  He throws hard and has a good curve and change.  He might end up in the bullpen.

 

Pacific Coast League

d'Arnaud could have been league MVP if he wasn't injured

Gose, the usual comments regarding whether he will hit enough

Hechavarria has a quick bat but likely will not hit for much power, he would fit at the bottom of a lineup

 

PCL Q&A

 

Baseball America League Top 20's | 86 comments | Create New Account
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#263810) #
Tirado had a lower K/9 than I'd like for a kid at that level - 7.3 between the two he played at over 48 IP. Not a scary sign, just a preference to crack the 9 mark when facing other kids.

DJ played in 3 leagues (two rookie, plus A-). Overall hit 250/355/386 while mainly in CF (55 games vs 5 in LF). His sub-2 Range Factor is a bit scary as CF'ers should be well over 2. 25-10 in SB/CS, 27-70 BB-SO ratio.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#263831) #
They suggest he needs to work better on incorporating his bottom half into his swing and in recognizing breaking balls.  That describes most young hitters.

And that second part (recognizing breaking balls) seems to apply to at least half the Jays MLB lineup: Davis, Lawrie, Rasmus, JPA, Johnson, etc..
MatO - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#263837) #

Tirado is 17.  He's a year younger than HS draftees and 5 years younger than the college seniors that are used to fill out GCL rosters.  I suspect the Appy league average age is 20 or 21.  I'm not concerned at all about his K rate at this point.

TamRa - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#263838) #
disappointing about Cardona. Hopefuly he develops out of that profile into something more.
eldarion - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#263843) #
Tirado is 17 and sits at 91-94? Impressive.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 26 2012 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#263877) #
Badler said DJ Davis has a chance to make the BA Top 100 but that Badler would probably leave him off the list. Davis sounds like a guy who could be very valuable if he sharpens his hitting skills.
rtcaino - Wednesday, September 26 2012 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#263901) #

Three Jays Listed in the Appy League top 20:

 

8:         Roberto Osuna

10:       Santiago Nessy

14:       Daniel Norris

Waveburner - Wednesday, September 26 2012 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#263910) #

I'd honestly be curious to know what made Cardona so hyped back in 2010 that he received the highest ever bonus given to a Venezuelan player.

He's not big at just 6'1". His fastball tops out around 93 last I heard and he apparently doesn't have a breaking ball worth mentioning. Did pure projection earn him the highest ever bonus? I don't really understand it. It wasn't like it was just the Jays either, he was widely regarded as the top IFA pitcher that year, with maybe only Heredia closely ranked.

Has his secondary stuff already regressed from where it was? I doubt many here have seen him actually play in the GCL though.

John Northey - Wednesday, September 26 2012 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#263911) #
Interesting how many guys in the first two leagues played in multiple leagues this year. All 3 of these guys were split between Bluefield and Vancouver.

Osuna: Rk & A-, 10.1 K/9 vs last year 5.5 in Mexican League at 16 (listed as AAA quality, has many ex-major leaguers in it). He earned a lot of hype with that, holding his own at 16 in a league that should've slaughtered him. His HR/9 this year was 0.5 or less in each league, walks a bit high at 3.1/9 IP but still solid. He could advance quickly as he wouldn't be as intimidated as others by higher level competition and I wouldn't be shocked to see him in Toronto by the age of 20 (just entering age 18 season next year).

Nessy: 19 years old this season, hit 236/305/434 overall between two leagues. 0 SB but as a catcher that is no shock. 3rd season in the system, one year in Dominican, 1 in GCL. Probably gets a shot in spring to show he deserves to be in A ball but odds are will be in A- again (Vancouver) to start the season.

Norris: 19 again, 2nd round pick in 2011. K/9 was decent at 9.1, 3.8 BB/9 a bit high, 0.8 HR/9 is solid. His H/9 was 12.2 though which is very high but could be a fluke (defense at rookie ball is scary as is field quality) which led to his 8.44 ERA. I suspect he'll be in Vancouver in 2013 and should do a lot better.
ayjackson - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#263913) #
Why so down on Cardona, Wavey? He barely pitched this year due to arm issues, but I haven't heard much else negative about him.
eldarion - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#263944) #
Blue Jays announce 2012 Webster Award winnersThe TORONTO BLUE JAYS are pleased to announce the following players have been selected as this year’s recipients of the R. HOWARD WEBSTER AWARDS, recognizing the most valuable players at each of the Club’s minor league affiliated teams: SS ADEINY HECHAVARRIA (AAA), SS RYAN GOINS (AA), RHP DANIEL BARNES (A), LHP JUSTIN NICOLINO (Low-A), RHP JAVIER AVENDANO (Short-A), SS CHRISTIAN LOPES (Rookie Advanced), RHP ALBERTO TIRADO (Rookie) and SS ROLANDO SEGOVIA (DSL).

NICOLINO becomes the 25th player in Blue Jays history to win two or more WEBSTER AWARDS, having won with the Vancouver Canadians last season. The rest are first time winners.

ADEINY HECHAVARRIA (SS).312, 20 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 63 RBI, .788 OPS
5-11, 180, Age-23, Born-Santiago de Cuba, Cuba Bats: Right
Las Vegas – Pacific Coast League (AAA)

The 3rd year shortstop out of Cuba posted a career high .312 batting average for the 51s, while solidifying the Las Vegas infield with stellar defensive play, earning a selection to the PCL All-Star game. Adeiny posted a .385 average vs. left-handed pitching in 2012 and earned a promotion to the Major League club where he is currently batting .259 with two home runs and 13 RBI in 36 games.

RYAN GOINS (SS) - .289, 33 2B, 7 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, .745 OPS
5-10, 185, Age-24, Born-Round Rock, TX Bats: Left
New Hampshire Fisher Cats – Eastern League (AA)

Selected in the 4th round of the 2009 draft, Goins led the Eastern League with 158 hits and his 33 doubles and a .289 average were team highs. The left-handed hitting shortstop posted a .338 average with runners in scoring position on his way to registering career highs in most offensive categories. An Eastern League All-Star, Goins has been selected by the Blue Jays to play in the Arizona Fall league.

DANIEL BARNES (RHP) – 1-2, 1.40 ERA, 34 SV
6-1, 195, Age-22, Born-Manhasset, NY Throws: Right
Dunedin Blue Jays – Florida State League (A Advanced)

The 35th round pick from 2010 led all Florida State pitchers and set a franchise record with 34 saves, earning mid-season and end of season All-Star selections. Barnes gave up just one run in the second half of the season for a 0.36 ERA leading the Dunedin Blue Jays to a division title. The Manhasset, New York native limited right-handed hitters to a .188 average.

JUSTIN NICOLINO (LHP) – 10-4, 2.46 ERA, 124.1 IP, 112 H, 21 BB, 119 K
6-3, 195, Age-20, Born-Orlando, FL Throws: Left
Lansing Lugnuts – Midwest League (A)

In his second professional season, the 2nd round pick in 2010 posted double digit victories, while leading the Midwest league with a 2.46 ERA. The Orlando, Florida native earned his second consecutive Webster Award having won with Vancouver in 2011 becoming the 25th player to win multiple awards. Nicolino registered a 1.21 ERA in the first half on his way to a mid-season All-Star selection.

JAVIER AVENDANO (RHP) – 10-4, 1.33 ERA, 108.1 IP, 73 H, 43 BB, 130 K (Lan/Van)
6-3, 168, Age-22, Born-Maracaibo, Venezuela Throws: Right
Vancouver Canadians – Northwest League (A-short)

Posted an 8-1 record with a 1.27 ERA for Vancouver, helping the Canadians to a second consecutive championship. The right-hander did not allow more than one earned run in all but one start. In his final 10 starts allowed just five runs recording a 0.86 ERA and was selected to the Northwest League post season All-Star squad.

CHRISTIAN LOPES (SS) - .278, 17 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR & 33 RBI, .801 OPS (Blu/Van)
6-0, 185, Age-19, Born-Huntington, CA Bats: Right
Bluefield – Appalachian League (Rookie Advanced)

The 7th round pick from the 2011 draft posted a .280 average with 25 extra base hits and a team leading 29 RBI for Bluefield. In his first professional season the Huntington Beach, California native recorded a .345 average in August earning a promotion to Vancouver for his final 10 games of the season.

ALBERTO TIRADO (RHP) – 3-2, 2.63 ERA, 48.0 IP, 32 H, 17 BB, 39 K (GCL/Blu)
6-0, 167, Age-17, Born-Nagua, Dominican Republic Throws: Right
Gulf Coast Blue Jays – Gulf Coast League (Rookie)

Made 11 of his 14 starts for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays, posting the lowest ERA (2.68) among starters on the rookie league club. Held GCL hitters to a .217 average. In six of his starts the Nagua, Dominican Republic native did not allow a run.

ROLANDO SEGOVIA (SS) – .299, 12 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 18 SB, .813 OPS
5-11, 165, Age-17, Born-Barquisimeto, Venezuela Bats: Both
DSL Blue Jays – Dominican Summer League

Segovia, led all Dominican League hitters with his .813 OPS, doubles with 12 and stolen bases with 18, while finishing second in average at .299. The switch-hitter batted .345 vs. left-handed pitching

scottt - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#263948) #
Lots of shortstops.
John Northey - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#263950) #
Figured we might as well add the Webster Awards here as part of the summary of awards. Should be interesting to see how many of these winners get ranked in the top 20 of their leagues.
greenfrog - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#263953) #
Taylor Cole landed at #20 on the NWL list.

"The top half of this list would have been much stronger had several other notable prospects played enough to qualify, such as Boise center fielder Albert Almora, Salem-Keizer righthander Chris Stratton, Spokane third baseman Joey Gallo or Vancouver righthander Roberto Osuna played enough to qualify."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2012/2614106.html
John Northey - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#263954) #
That is something that could affect a lot of Jays prospects on these lists - lack of time in one league. They are shifting them between levels frequently, although Cole was in Vancouver for the 2nd full season. Cole's 0.81 ERA (yes, zero is the first digit) is impressive but his 2.3 BB/9 7.7 K/9 are just 'nice' not 'wow' but his 0 HR allowed is a wow over 66 1/3 IP after giving up just 3 last year.
greenfrog - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#263955) #
BA notes on Cole:

- Old at 23 but this is somewhat deceiving - he served a Mormon mission in Toronto (!) for two years

- Prospect status could rise significantly if he can regain some of the 94-96 velo he had before the mission

- If not, could still make it as a #5 starter because of three average pitches and feel for pitching
John Northey - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#263959) #
Bit surprised the Jays didn't promote Cole at some point this year as it was his 2nd year in Vancouver and when a guy is giving up under a run per 9 innings you should try to push him a bit more. Plus you factor in his age and his window of opportunity will require him to push it through the levels. If he spends just 1 year per level from now on he'd be 23 in Lansing, 24 in Dunedin, 25 in AA, 26 in AAA and 27 by the time he'd reach the majors which is pretty old for a guy to be any kind of prospect. Of course, once a guy hits A+ (Dunedin) they can jump quickly if effective. Pitchers going from A+ one year to the majors at some point the next year has happened fairly often (2012 starting pitchers Alvarez, Morrow, Drabek, Hutchison, Cecil, Happ, Laffey, Carreno and Villanueva all did it). Actually, I was a bit surprised to find 9 of the 12 Jays starting pitchers this year did the A+ to majors in one year thing.
Gerry - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#263962) #
Javier Avendano did not make the list.  Some prefer him to Cole.
John Northey - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#263964) #
Interesting staff in Vancouver...
ERA for the top 4 guys for number of starts: 5.73, 1.27, 0.81, 7.09 Now there is a case of Avendano & Cole then dive in a hole (to hide from the many hits). OK, not as nice as Spahn & Sain and pray for rain but the best I could do. The other 2 starters were White & Brown respectively. Osuna, at 17, was by far the youngest pitcher on the team as the next one was 19 (Norris) then 21. DJ Davis also was 17, then 4 other hitters who were 19.
bpoz - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#263966) #
Vancouver won the championship. I believe many feel, myself included that this team did not have great talent ie prospects, Osuna only played half the season there.

To speak positively, I will say that this was great roster construction. I do not think we were over loaded with age or veteran experience.

So how were they so good?
John Northey - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#263968) #
Well, they had the round 4-10 picks this year. Now that all is said and done how did the bargain kids do?
Tucker Donahue RHP: 5.26 ERA in 25 2/3 IP 4.9 BB/9 7.4 K/9
Brad Delatte LHP: 1/3 IP 2 H 1 HBP 1 ER
Eric Phillips SS: 182/280/182 25 PA
Ian Parmley CF: 201/359/254 264 PA
Tucker Frawley CA: 185/280/185 94 PA
Jordan Leyland 1B/DH: 235/337/346 95 PA plus 53 PA in Bluefield
Alex Azor LF: Bluefield 250/302/275 in 45 PA

Well, hrm, Donahue showed some talent, Phillips/Parmley/Frawley/Leyland all were really good at taking walks (adding nearly 100 OBP points via walks each, Parmley over 150 points). Strongly suspect all these guys just lived their pro-baseball dreams and now will retire to the 'real world' after having a summer job as a Vancouver Canadian.
greenfrog - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#263969) #
Perhaps someone on the BoxBoard with discretionary powers could start a pennant race thread...? There are some great races going on.

The Rays are pretty amazing - they've won eight in a row and are two back in the wild card race. And they host Baltimore for three games to close out the season (remember that Baltimore helped out TB last year by playing spoiler against the imploding Red Sox). Of course, they've got a tough assignment first, with three games in Chicago against the White Sox, while the Orioles peck away at the visiting Red Sox.
jerjapan - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#263970) #
^^ yes please!
Beyonder - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#263971) #
John. I will use your note as an excuse to post the result of a slipshod investigation that I performed back when we were discussing the merits of AA's punting strategy in rounds 4 through 10 of the draft in exchange for (mostly) the privilege of drafting Matt Smoral (arguably some of Alford's bonus was paid for also). I was really just trying to get a rough sense of whether the punting gambit was a wise one from a WAR perspective, and so I throw it out there for that purpose only.

Using Baseball Reference's draft database, first I tracked the expected WAR of each of the picks in rounds 4 through 10. BR has compiled a list of all draft picks by round going back to 1965, assigned a career WAR to all players who made the majors, and calculated the percentage of players drafted in each individual slot who made the majors.

So I took that percentage, multiplied it by the average WAR for each of the Jays picks in rounds 4-10 (ie. slots 145, 175, 205, 235, 265, 295, and 325), and calculated an expected WAR. The aggregate expected career WAR for those rounds was 7.056. That is the value AA gave up by punting those rounds.

What he gained was the delta between Smoral and a player who would have otherwise been drafted at 50 (the pick we actually used to draft Smoral). Now Smoral dropped in the draft due to signability concerns, but BA had him pegged at slot 24. I used that ranking as a benchmark for assessing his value. That slot has an expected WAR (%chance of making the majors x average career WAR of all of MLB players drafted in that slot) of 1.998.

To acquire that value, we used the 50th pick. The expected WAR from the 50th pick is 3.31 -- historically it has produced more value than the 24th pick.

This is obviously a perverse result -- the 5oth pick is not worth more than the 24th. This is likely an artifact of small smaple size and the sheer indeterminacy of drafting prospects. Having said that (and this is the moral of the story), there are very few scenarios where the average career WAR of a first round pick in the back end of the first round is in excess of 7, or even close.
CeeBee - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#263974) #
So rounds 4 through 10 average about 1 WAR per slot? My thought is that it's better to have one 3WAR player than 7 1WAR players unless you are building a team from scratch and need warm bodies. Also the odds of any more than one of those 7 draft spots producing more than one major leagues per year has to be rather slim? Now that I've thoroughly confused myself I'll let someone else figure out something that actually makes sense.
Beyonder - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#263975) #
While I would agree with your statement, you can't draw that conclusion from these figures Ceebee. The 7 WAR accumulated in rounds 4 through 10 included many players who on their own compiled 8 or 9 WAR. There are just fewer of them as you progress higher. Similarly, there are many 1 WAR (or no WAR) players drafted at 24 and below.

As for the odds being slim, those odds were taken into account when calculating the expected 7WAR in rounds 4-10. Frankly, the odds of a player picked in the 24th slot are only 54%. At 50 they drop to 43%.

And remember, the value of the strategy is not the value of Smoral, but rather the incremental value of Smoral over and above the hypothetical player who would otherwise have been taken at the 50th pick.

The analysis breaks down when you are talking about actual players, but if you are playing the percentages, there is not very much of a WAR-based case to be made for taking a single high-upside guy over 7 guys in rounds 4-10.
hypobole - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#263979) #
Beyonder, a couple of issues with the WAR calculations for players taken rounds 4-10.

First of all, much of the WAR in rounds 4-10 in the past was accumulated by high school picks who were lured away from college commits. The new slotting system makes that risky and in many cases impossible, as you would lose not only the player but the bonus pool money if they didn't sign.

The other issue is with the BBref calculations. Red Sox 1998 9th rounder Mark Teixeira is credited with 45.5 WAR. As you probably know, he didn't sign and ended up as the 5th overall pick 3 yrs later. So that 9th round pick was worth zero, not the 45.5 WAR it was given.
Beyonder - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#263984) #
Those are two good points hyperbole. The Bbref stats may overstate WAR by double counting guys that didn't sign. To some extent this happens in all rounds though. The same will happen if and when Mark Appel and Tyler Beede go on to the majors.

I've heard a number of people suggest that the modifications to the draft have altered the quality of the players who will be chosen at various stages. I haven't seen it yet. The only teams who have seen the quality of the players drop are the ones that opted for the punting strategy. Sure, teams who fail to sign a player lose that players slot amount, but that is only a problem for teams who take an unbalanced approach to signing their picks.
bpoz - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#263988) #
DOB for D Norris 04/93, A Tirado 12/94 & Osuna 02/95. So Norris is almost 2 years older than the other 2.

All 3 are highly regarded SP prospects. All were Jay's property at the start of 2012, unlike our 2012 young SP draft picks like C DeJong. I am trying to figure out the development strategy/plan for prospects. So before the Short season started the first 3 were evaluated & assigned.

T Gonzales signed 6/11/12 & DeJong signed 7/1/12 so their availability was different. Gonzales bad start probably got him reassigned to some sort of learning group where he improved. I am just guessing.

I am having a hard time thinking clearly. Tandem starts in Lansing with increased IP/start as the month ended. I guess these are due to the young age of those prospects. For 2013 there should be more prospects that are very young than there were in 2012. That due to the DSL graduates. So Vancouver could have more high prospects in 2013, maybe. Has anyone thought about this. I hope you can understand what I am saying.



John Northey - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#263995) #
I think a big part is what are you trying for in the draft. Generally speaking backup players in the majors are easy to find/acquire in the offseason - guys who fill the roles of a John McDonald (5.7 WAR)/Rajai Davis (4.8 WAR) or middle reliever. So, the optimal strategy is to chase after the high end, hard to get (at reasonable prices) guys who make all-star teams and win MVP's. Those guys are 20 WAR guys - that is what you chase. The rest is gravy.

So, for the 24th pick how many 20 WAR guys are there? 2 all time. Same for the 25th and 23rd pick. Out of 48 total picks at each slot. The 50th has 3.

Since I don't feel like downloading the works, it is easier to just check Jays 4th-10th rounders. 36 picks per round.
4th: 0
5th: 3 inc Dave Stieb who was drafted in the OF
6th: nada
7th: Casey Blake
8th: nada
9th: Jesse Barfield
10th: nada

So for rounds 4-10 the Jays have had 5 guys who were star level out of 252 picks over 36 years or if you prefer one every 7 years (roughly). The 24th + 50th pick overall have produced 5 out of 96 or one out of every 19 players picked. Looking at it that way it doesn't seem like as good a strategy. Blake, Barfield, Stieb, Hentgen & Mike Young were the 5 the Jays got, none were massive bonus babies as far as I can recall. Given other teams were doing the same thing, might it have been easier to get talent in those rounds too? Maybe. Hard to say but these stats suggest punting rounds 6-10 is good, but 4/5 might produce some quality.
vonwafer234 - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#264001) #
I was surprised not to see Javier Avendano on the Northwest League top 20 prospects list. Is there any rule pertaining Rule 5 picks making the list? Have there ever been cases where Rule 5 picks in the major or minor league portion snook into a team's top 20/30 prospects because that's how good Avendano pitched this year.
Gerry - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#264002) #
Avendano was eligible but just not that impressive per Ben Balder of BA. After each chat I note Jays related Q&A's in the main story above. The Avendano answer from the chat is up there.
greenfrog - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#264058) #
Here is how the 289 unique players listed in BA's various top-20 lists are distributed by organization (per BA - link below):

14 Cardinals, Mariners, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox
13 Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers, Rays
12 Mets, Rockies, Royals
11 Braves, Reds
10 Astros, Diamondbacks
9 Athletics, Phillies
8 Indians, Marlins, Tigers
7 Twins
6 White Sox
5 Angels, Brewers, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Yankees
4 Orioles

Jim Callis writes:

That chart correlates well with organization depth in most cases, though bear in mind that no distinction is draw between prospects in Triple-A vs. Rookie ball. I haven't tried to think through updated farm-system rankings—that's a project for the 2013 Prospect Handbook in December—but off the top of my head, the Rangers and Blue Jays would top that list.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2614124.html
TamRa - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#264065) #
okay, so we know who six of the 13 are already, who would be the other 7?

Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicolino for sure.

d'Arnaud for sure



that's 4 and leaves 3 other spots.

Marisnick even on a less than eye-popping season might well be there?

Gose and Hech since qualifying for the ROY wouldn't be at issue on these lists?

Sean Nolin would be the only other guy i can think of who seems obviously suited for attention.

rtcaino - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#264066) #
So we have 13, and know 6:
Davis
Tirado
Osuna
Nessy
Norris
Cole

I presume we'd then have the Lansing 3, Marisnick in the FSL, as well as Gose, Hech and D'Arnaud in AAA.
rtcaino - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#264067) #
I promised myself I'd refresh before posting...
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#264097) #
So 4 of 7 leagues down and not one case of the top prospect via BA matching the Webster Award winner. Kind of interesting, wonder if that is common that team MVP's aren't the top prospect due to age/shifting levels/etc.

Nicolino is 20 vs Syndergaard & Sanchez being 19. All 3 spent time in Vancouver last year and none were promoted to a higher level this year. ERA's ranged from 2.46 to 2.60 although K's had a wider range of 8.6 (Nicolino) to 10.6 (Syndergaard). BB/9 was even wider from 5.1 for Sanchez to 2.7 for Syndergaard to 1.5 for Nicolino. HR/9 for the 3 is 0.3 to 0.4. Based on those stats alone i'd think of Syndergaard as the top prospect and Sanchez as the guy with the highest potential for change as he climbs levels since umpires might be fooled by his stuff (high walk levels at low levels can indicate umps don't know strikes are strikes, but the higher you get the better the umps are and more likely to call it correctly unless of course you really are that wild then once hitters are better and know to lay off you walk the world and your career ends).
Gerry - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#264099) #
I added some of BA's comments to the main story above.  Relevant Q&A answers will be summarized this afternoon.
eldarion - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#264108) #
It looks like the Jays' approach for its Webster Awards is to award them to young prospects who gets results (i.e. solid numbers) in their respective leagues whereas Baseball America looks at pure upside and tools. I rather prefer the Jays approach. Results are what matter at the end of the day; all the potential in the world is meaningless if it can't be translated into success.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#264110) #
Syndergaard finally ranked ahead of Sanchez by somebody other than me. sweet!
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#264113) #
Both have uses - the Jays are doing the smart thing for them as you want players to feel the MVP's are indeed MVP's of that team, not 'best potential'. Meanwhile Baseball America wants you to look at the list in 5-10 years and go 'yeah, they got it right' or at least were close. Team MVP's often will be overage for the league or guys having career years while in the minors (it happens), and 10 years from now they probably won't be viewed as ever having much of a ML career.

If I had time I'd go back and see who the team MVP's were in 2002 and who BA listed as their top 10 and see which did better.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#264117) #
Syndergaard finally ranked ahead of Sanchez by somebody other than me. sweet!

I imagine that Sickels will agree.  I have all along, but that doesn't count, and frankly, I don't think that it is close at this point.  Durability and control are two big pieces. For some people, stuff trumps everything.
ayjackson - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#264120) #
Well coming into this year, I'm not sure there were any non-scouts/evaluators that favoured Sanchez over Syndergaard.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#264122) #
Few comments from Callis's BA chat today:

- Syndergaard and Sanchez look like they could be #2 starters

- Nicolino could be a #3 or 4

- Had he qualified, Soler might have slotted in the midst of Bradley, Syndergaard and Sanchez

- Pillar is more of a grinder maxing out his ability than a tooled-up prospect

- DeSclafani and Ybarra took a back seat to the big three Lansing SPs, but scouts liked them

- Ybarra is a sleeper relief prospect - sinker 91-95 with a plus slider

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/?1349188225
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#264123) #
Actually, ayj, BA rated Sanchez over Syndergaard coming into the year.   As you can see, I didn't agree (#242292).
uglyone - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#264126) #
nice call, Mike, guess I was actually just following your lead.
ayjackson - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#264128) #
I did say scouts/evaluators and BA is basically a scouting organization. Amongst most Jays fans like yourself and Uglyone, the rage was all Syndergaard one year ago and coming into this year. It was only the persistent scouting glowing reports during this season regarding Sanchez that swayed popular opinion in his favour.
ayjackson - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#264129) #
I see from Mike's link that even I had Syndergaard over Sanchez.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#264139) #
Nice to see Syndergaard's stock up, but let's see how the respective careers of the big three play out. None of them has done anything in the majors yet.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#264146) #
I imagine they could flip-flop a few more times over the next 6-10 years on fans' ballots.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#264150) #
Few comments from Callis's BA chat today:

- Syndergaard and Sanchez look like they could be #2 starters

- Nicolino could be a #3 or 4

...and Nicolino could turn out to be Jimmy Key, while Sanchez could be a relief ace and Syndergaard could take up ranching instead.  Seriously, Syndergaard and Sanchez are both in a place where they could be aces if they develop well.  The odds are significantly stacked against all of them, and if one of them reaches his potential, that will be a good result. 
uglyone - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#264184) #
I understand why none of them are necessarily being considered future #1s at this point.

Syndergaard doesn't yet have enough pitches, and needs a legit breaking pitch or two to elevate to elite status.

Sanchez' control is a major problem, even if he has ace stuff.

Nicolino lacks both velo and a full arsenal of pitches, so topping him out a notch below those other two right now makes sense too.

All of these guys have a chance to turn into legit elite prospects but none of them are there yet I don't think.

I'm also interested to see whether Osuna and Norris can join them next year in making a "Big 5"....which a good year for either of them will likely do.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#264187) #
Most players, who turn out to be aces, do not have high 90s fastballs and elite level breaking stuff and good control at age 19.  Personally, I find descriptions of what a 19 year old player has and what he needs to work on, more helpful than a shot-in-the-dark guess about where he might be at age 23 or 24. 
uglyone - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#264193) #
no disagreement there.

but I don't really have a big problem with classifying a prospect with one glaring shortcoming as a "future #2" until he does round out that package (and, let's be honest, there are similar aged prospects out there who are really good and don't have a glaring weakness like those).....especially since odds are for any prospect that they don't even get to be an MLB #2 in the end.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#264195) #
I'm hoping Smoral and Stroman can join Osuna and Norris.
hypobole - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#264198) #
"Nicolino lacks both velo and a full arsenal of pitches"

FB sitting at 89-92 is about MLB average for LH starters no? As for full arsenal, he has the best change in the league and well a a much improved curve. Plus he has terrific command for his age.
Waveburner - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#264236) #

I don't think Smoral starts in full season ball, ayj. Under Anthopoulos no high school draftee has debuted in full season ball, and I doubt it changes any time soon.

I agree on Stroman. It would sure be nice if the "fast-moving" college first rounder actually moved fast for once (Romero, Cooper, Jenkins, McGuire).

hypobole - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#264240) #
Osuna seems ready for Lansing.
Stroman should be a SP in A+ Dunedin.
Smoral, yeah, either Vancouber or Bluefield seems likely.
Norris is the puzzlement. Jays have more info than I do, but what has he shown to be ready for full season ball?
hypobole - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 02:22 AM EDT (#264242) #
For those wondering what happened to Mitch Nay, the guy who runs MLBProspectPulse is apparently friends with Nay's grandfather. Sept 26 he posted this at Sickels Minorleagueball:

"I spoke to his grandfather on Monday.

He said Mitch had a set-back in his rehab which pushed his recovery out about two weeks, but he’s scheduled to start baseball related activities either today or tomorrow, and should be ready for game action some time next week."
uglyone - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#264293) #
"It would sure be nice if the "fast-moving" college first rounder actually moved fast for once (Romero, Cooper, Jenkins, McGuire)."

Well, Cecil and Hill only spent 1 full year in the minors, at least.
bpoz - Friday, October 05 2012 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#264330) #
Hill must have earned his way I guess. But Cecil benefited from the 2009 opportunity due to injuries. I remember that commentators raved about the number of arms coming up in 2009 and doing OK. Richardi was not allowed to do a lot that year.

So Cecil, Zep, Robert Ray, B Mills all got an opportunity.

This year also provided opportunity. Loup & Jenkins.
TamRa - Friday, October 05 2012 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#264339) #
I see them working Stroman as a starter to begin at least, but i doubt he's at Dunedin very long if at all. Maybe starting late as he will you could let him get up to speed there but I figure pretty much the whole second half will be at a higher level.


greenfrog - Tuesday, October 09 2012 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#264410) #
Apparently Nolin was close to making the FSL top 20, per the BA chat. They liked him quite a bit, expecting him to make it to the big leagues as a starter.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 09 2012 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#264417) #
Weird to have the same guy as the only Jay prospect on two top 20 lists, and for him to do better on the higher level list. Just the way it works sometimes I guess. Whats funny is in A+ he hit 263/349/451 vs AA 233/286/336 in similar playing time (306 PA vs 247 PA). Still, a 21 year old in AA is more impressive than a 21 year old in A+ I guess. Safe bet he starts 2013 in AA and has to prove he deserves a promotion to Buffalo. Doubt we see him in Toronto until 2014 though.
Waveburner - Tuesday, October 09 2012 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#264424) #
I'm surprised they think Stilson is a better bet to be a major leaguer than Jiminez. Or were they ignoring Jiminez completely due to his injury?
Gerry - Tuesday, October 09 2012 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#264425) #
Because Jimenez had only 105 AB's I don't think he qualified for the list.
hypobole - Tuesday, October 09 2012 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#264426) #
I'm guessing if the question was "Which is more likely, Jiminez being a viable catcher in the majors or Stilson a viable starting pitcher?", the answer may well have been Jiminez.

Pretty well every decent pitcher in the high minors can reach the majors as some sort of reliever.
hypobole - Wednesday, October 10 2012 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#264429) #
Arizona Fall League is underway.

Jake 0-4, 2K, HBP
Deck 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2K
hypobole - Wednesday, October 10 2012 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#264431) #
AFL game 2

Goins 0-5, BB
Pillar 2-4, BB, HR, SB

Dyson 2IP, 2H, 2R, 0BB, 1HR

Dyson gave up a 2 run shot to Jon Singleton.

Pillar will be 24 in January, but for a 32nd round Division 2 kid, he's done nothing but impress.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 10 2012 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#264432) #
In a recent Fangraphs podcast Marc Hulet said a scout said Marisnick was set to "explode" in AA next year. Apparently his swing is being tweaked, which might explain some of his so-so results (i.e., while he adjusts). Nice to hear, although after Snider's many swing adjustments in the minors, I'll believe it when I see it.
Oceanbound - Thursday, October 11 2012 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#264446) #
Stilson pulled from the AFL according to Law. Sounds like more good news on the pitcher health front...
rtcaino - Friday, October 12 2012 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#264474) #
I'm excited to see how the PCL shakes down.

Presumably, TDA will be the highest ranking Jay.

After that, I am not super sure how Gose and Hech will fit. And I am quite interested to read BA's comments.
Gerry - Monday, October 15 2012 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#264508) #

PCL added above:

d'Arnaud #2

Gose #8

Hechavarria #14

eldarion - Monday, October 15 2012 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#264509) #
When you see the Jays' prospects broken down as above, it becomes very apparent that we have several 'waves' of prospect talent designed to push the major league club every couple of years. Very interesting.

Overall, the depth of the Jays' system is really impressive. I wonder who AA will trade in the off-season to get that starter he wants so badly...?
John Northey - Monday, October 15 2012 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#264511) #
So, in the end what positions are covered?
CA: 2 - Nessy, d'Arnaud
1B: None
2B: None
3B: None
SS: 1 - Hechavarria
LF: None
CF: 3 (4) - DJ Davis, Marisnick (twice), Gose
RF: None
DH: None

RHP: 5 - Tirado, Osuna, Cole, Syndergaard, Sanchez
LHP: 2 - Norris, Nicolino

Clearly AA has been doing the old 'up the middle' and pitching chase while leaving the easier defensive positions for guys moving down the defensive spectrum.
John Northey - Monday, October 15 2012 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#264512) #
Another way to look...

Ready or almost ready (AA/AAA): 4 (CA/SS/2 in CF)

A year away potentially (full season A/A+): 3+ (3 pitchers and Marisnick)

Far away (short season): 6 (CA/CF/4 pitchers)

The 6 in short season have little value in trades I suspect, while the 4 ready/almost ready have higher value with Hech/Gose being very high due to ML experience. I find it hard to imagine any significant trade not involving at least one or more of the ready/almost guys. If AA can avoid mixing in those guys and getting a solid #1/2 starter then he'll be a miracle worker.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 16 2012 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#264515) #
It will be interesting to see how d'Arnaud responds to the Jays' coaching directives at the major-league level. I for one will be watching closely to see whether he turns into another young hitter with free-swinging, low-OBP, low-wRC+ tendencies (a la Rasmus, Lawrie, Arencibia, Lind).
John Northey - Tuesday, October 16 2012 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#264516) #
Or will d'Arnaud pay attention to the big boppers like Encarnacion and Bautista and become a solid OBP/Slg machine?

I suspect the Jays are following a modified Cito method - see what works for each player and go with their skills. Cito preferred the high Slg regardless of OBP (famously pushing Olerud to hit for more power when he was doing quite well otherwise), the current Jays do seem to accept high OBP (Encarnacion/Bautista) but don't push for it (no one else over 324 for OBP except Villanueva who went 1 for 2).
eldarion - Tuesday, October 16 2012 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#264517) #
Weren't their rumours that the Jays may have two hitting coaches next year...? i.e. promoting Mottola to the big leagues? I think it's a good idea, if so. Not every hitter responds to every hitting coach so it's nice to have options for development for each player...perhaps we can avoid a situation where players are being pushed to adopt a particular hitting approach at the major league level when they've been coached differently in the minors. Or do the Jays implement a minor league-wide coaching consistency model?
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 16 2012 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#264519) #
see what works for each player and go with their skills

How's that working out for Rasmus, Lind, Arencibia, Lawrie, Davis, Escobar and Johnson (and Hill and Snider)?
John Northey - Tuesday, October 16 2012 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#264527) #
Greenfrog - never said they did it perfectly... just that it worked super-well for 2 guys. You make a good counter that it sure flopped for a few others, although I don't see Davis, JPA, or Lawrie as disasters since Davis is pretty much what we figured, Lawrie coming back to earth from crazy high levels, and JPA hitting solid for a catcher (good power, low walks, much like many others who make around $5 mil a year). Lind, Rasmus, Escobar, Johnson and Hill are all clear problems, while Snider is hard to say if he is a mess due to hitting coaches or due to fast promotion or due to having too many holes in his swing and not willing to listen (see his interview where he was very negative to suggestions early on).
eldarion - Wednesday, October 17 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#264539) #
Nothing on Jays prospects in the PCL Q & A?
John Northey - Wednesday, October 17 2012 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#264541) #
The Jays should look at this group - the indy league top prospects. Few will do anything but they would strengthen the minor league system and push the prospects here already. And who knows, one or two might actually help at the ML level too someday. Kevin Gelinas, lhp (relief) is a tempting one as he was ranked highly at one time but had injuries screw up his career before it started.

For the Jays to succeed depth all around is needed and checking the indy leagues would be smart - Scott Richmond was useful at one time (and still is as AAA filler, emergency ML) and others have emerged from that purgatory.
Gerry - Wednesday, October 17 2012 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#264542) #

There wasn't much new in the PCL chat.

 

There was speculation on whether the Jays will deal Arencibia to make room for d'Arnaud.

There was a question on whether Gose could be the starting CF next year which got a rambing response.

 

And that was it.

hypobole - Wednesday, October 17 2012 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#264543) #
Another good day for Kevin Pillar at the AFL. 3-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB including a steal of home.

Story:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121017&content_id=39882876&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor
bpoz - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#264556) #
Nice list of indy leagues players John N. The Jays have made 3 waiver wire additions, Cousins, Wade & Tyson (Brummett?) from the Phils. Some guys just need an opportunity. Actually after LV the Jays should make a very good product in Buffalo a priority IMO.
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