I'm excited for that last week in May, with the home-and-home series. I'm guessing that hasn't happened much in baseball's past. I'm not looking forward to either Giants series being surrounded by off-days (Monday and Thursday off for a Tuesday-Wednesday series) but I am hoping to catch one of those Giants games.

If I understand right, the Jays have
-4 more AL East games
-2 more Interleague games (but also 2 more Interleague series)
-7 new games vs. the Astros (now in the AL West)
-all(?) paid for by fewer games against the previous 4 AL West teams (I'm not sure this is adding up).

The schedule also is back to ending on a Sunday.

With the exception of Sierra in right, say hello to your 2013 Toronto Blue Jays!

Well you gotta assume Bautista will make the team.

Delabar rocks. Hard to believe that in 2010 he was making a living as a substitute teacher and playing slow-pitch softball.

The Jays' rotation is a bit of a mess, though. Romero really looks as though he's lost his confidence, which could be a real problem next year. The minor-league reinforcements are a long ways off, so it's either add pitchers via trade or FA (never easy), or continue the slow rebuild.

It's the year Houston moves to the AL West leading to inter league throughout the entire season.

It will probably prop up teams in both West divisions. Unless the Mariners are much improved next year, both wild card teams could come from the AL West.

Anybody else disheartened by the fact we enter next season exactly as we entered this season - with a glaring need for a left handed cleanup hitter and a front of the rotation starter?

That these needs require a $20-30M payroll boost are what leave me uneasy...

Pythagorean issues notwithstanding, the O's are having a magical season (as are the A's). Can they hold on for a few more weeks? This year's playoff race is pretty cool.

Hard to believe that the Angels added CJ Wilson, Pujols and Greinke and they're on the verge of falling out of contention - possibly to Oakland and Baltimore. Apparently you do have to play the games, after all.

Not just the Angels are in trouble - so are the Yankees.

Right now Baltimore is tied for 1st in the AL East and Oakland has a better record than the Yankees thus it is possible the Yanks will be fighting for the 2nd wild card slot with Tampa (3 back) and the Angels (3 1/2) and the Tigers (5 back).

An ideal AL playoff could be Texas (can't avoid them), Baltimore, Tampa, Oakland. Just one of the big spenders there plus Tampa and 2 who were pretty much universally seen as fighting to avoid last place in their divisions. Cool.

The NL is getting interesting too. Milwaukee and Philadelphia, both listed as having 0% playoff chance at one point by Baseball Prospectus (iirc) are now just 3 games back of the 2nd wild card. Always fun.

"An ideal AL playoff could be Texas (can't avoid them), Baltimore, Tampa, Oakland. Just one of the big spenders there plus"

Now if only Texas could fall apart and the Jays somehow take the AL central...

Kidding aside, no Yanks and no Angels would be super cool.

There is definitely more pressure on the Yankees, but TB, LAA and Det are three, four and five games behind them in the loss column. Obviously anything can happen, but NY is still in a good position to control its destiny, unlike the teams behind them.

Oakland has shocked me. The trades of Cahill and Gonzalez were astute rebuilding, not contending, moves. It wasn't until the A's won the Cespedes bidding that I started wondering what the heck Beane was doing. Beane shows once again he's one sharp GM.

On the other hand, I was one of the few who thought the O's would be able to keep up their early season success. Duquette is a jerk, but made one very smart move in hiring Rick Peterson to oversee the teams pitching operations. Peterson sent 40 pitchers to James Andrews for biomechanical assessments to help pinpoint delivery flaws that could lead to injury (Is it coincidence the O's have had a lot fewer major arm injuries than the Jays?). The signing of Chen was excellent, and the trade for Hammell, whether lucky or smart, gave them 2 solid mid-rotation starters.

Those of us who feel the Jays can't contend without an ace pitcher may want to take note. A staff of solid mid-rotation pitchers can go a long way, especially if the other pieces (bullpen, offence, defense) can hold their own.

Those of us who feel the Jays can't contend without an ace pitcher may want to take note. A staff of solid mid-rotation pitchers can go a long way, especially if the other pieces (bullpen, offence, defense) can hold their own.

Completely agree - I think this is an important point. However, the trick is identifying those solid mid-rotation candidates.

Before anyone gets too excited about the Orioles (myself included) it is worth checking http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ - standings adjusted for runs scored/allowed and the stuff that leads to those (ie: removing as much 'luck' as possible). They list the Orioles as having played well enough to be in the .468 to .484 range (actual is 563) vs the Jays range of 440 to 469 (vs actual 454). So the Orioles have played a bit better than the Jays but not as much as it appears in the standings. The Yankees and Rays are slightly below what they should be, while the Sox should've been around 500.

Using those standings you'd have division leaders Texas, Tampa, and Detroit while the wild cards would be the Yankees and Angels with the A's being ahead of Detroit but still outside looking in come playoff time.

Baltimore leads the AL with 11.3 wins more than they 'should' have, 2nd place is Oakland at 3.5. Boston has lost the most at 7.9 followed by the Rays at 5.3

In the NL you have the Reds at 10.3 and Giants at 7.2 (drops to +3 after that). The Mets are the only ones below -5 at -6.7

Still, I do agree that any smart team should be checking with top experts on how best to adjust top prospects motions to minimize long term injury risk.

Anybody else disheartened by the fact we enter next season exactly as we entered this season - with a glaring need for a left handed cleanup hitter and a front of the rotation starter?  That these needs require a $20-30M payroll boost are what leave me uneasy...  When you consider every team will have  http://content.usatoday.com/communities/gameon/post/2012/08/espn-reportedly-signs-new-mlb-tv-deal/1  as much as an extra $50.0 MM to spend on Free Agents (some pay off debts, other fill pockets).  If A.A. doesn't "spend big" he should be replaced.  Balitimore's luck is something A.A. must take advantage of.  Boston will suck next year, and New York will have the usual age/injury problems.  Tampa contends, but has their 'down years', while Baltimore can't stay that lucky, that long. 

"A staff of solid mid-rotation pitchers can go a long way, especially if the other pieces (bullpen, offence, defense) can hold their own."

I understand the sentiment but I am not sure Baltimore is a great example to hold up for inspection. At the beginning of the season, it would have been extremely charitable to say they possessed a staff of mid-rotation starters based on past performance. Additionally, of the other pieces only the bullpen has held their own. Their defence is rated amongst the worst in the league and the offence has been below average. Outside of their extraordinary pen and their performance in clutch situations, I am at a complete loss as to how they have managed to be so successful this season.

As much as i dispise the Yankees, i'll be much more unhappy if Baltimore flukes there way into the playoffs undeservingly than if the Yankees make it to the World Series.

The Orioles have had a healthy slice of luck, but they've won games fair and square. To say that they would be an "undeserving" playoff team is total nonsense. If they win enough games to make the playoffs, they're deserving.

Yes. Baltimore has won its games fair and square. The goal is to win baseball games on the field, not produce a pretty pythagorean record or a terrible record in one-run games.

Schedule has each team playing division rivals 19 times for a total of 76, non-division teams 6 or 7 times for a total of 66, and 20 interleague games.

Not sure why they went with 19 games against division rivals...those 4 extra games they could have been added to the 66 games of non-division teams and made it exactly 7 games against non-division teams instead of 6 against some and 7 against some...why is MLB trying so hard to fight symmetry.

The goal is to win baseball games on the field, not produce a pretty pythagorean record or a terrible record in one-run games.

Of course it is, but that doesn't change the fact that Baltimore is winning in a fashion that should not be sustainable and, while I need to give it some thought, is in the midst of one of the luckiest seasons I have observed in my lifetime. People have no problem quoting FIP, xFIP, BABIP and the sort to show that X player is probably not deserving of their shiny ERA, BA etc. I don't see this as any different.

The Orioles have had a healthy slice of luck, but they've won games fair and square. To say that they would be an "undeserving" playoff team is total nonsense. If they win enough games to make the playoffs, they're deserving.

C'est magnifique... mais ce n'est pas la guerre.

People have no problem quoting FIP, xFIP, BABIP and the sort to show that X player is probably not deserving of their shiny ERA, BA etc. I don't see this as any different.

Sure - why even tally wins and losses, then? Let's just rank teams based on their RS/RA ratios or pythagorean records. Then we'll know with mathematical precision which teams deserve accolades, and which don't. Of course, ordinary fans would object, but why cater to the masses? I'm sure the sabermetricians could hold a conference to enlighten them.

Lets just throw a bunch of stats into a computer simulation and skip the completely irrelevent actual playing of the game. Sometimes I feel that some fans would actually prefer that.

Well, it depends what the discussion is. I don't like the Orioles, but I don't begrudge them their success. If we're talking about who _is_ winning, or who _did_ win, it's Baltimore, full stop. If we're talking about who's _going to_ win, then it's not disrespectful to the Orioles to try to figure out just _how_ they won up to now and whether they're going to be able to keep doing it. If we're talking about the Jays' lamentable position, it's not sour grapes to conclude that the Orioles' recipe probably isn't one for the Jays to try to replicate.

"Deserve" is a tricky word. I wouldn't want to say that the Orioles didn't deserve to win the games that they won. What, were they cheating? Was the fix in? No, it's just baseball; on any given afternoon any one team can beat any other team. Someone's been giving the Os the right afternoons, that's all.

Agreed with Matthew - the Orioles methods shouldn't be taken as 'wow, must work' since the underlying stats suggest it was a non-repeatable skill set that pushed them ahead of everyone else (winning more than your runs scored/allowed suggest, great record in 1 run games). For a long time I hoped the O's would fall apart as it just didn't seem fair for them to do so well while we suffered here. But now that they could keep the Yankees out of the playoffs potentially it is hard not to cheer them on.

Eh. Whatever. I've just sat through too many years when the Jays did most things right and still managed to fail, and i resent it (perhaps irrationally so - a sports fan being irrational?1 Stop the presses!) when I see the opposite happen elsewhere.

Just like I resent it when the Yankees desperately resort to a couple of scrap heap pitchers and get outstanding work from them (last year) and other sorts of things that seem to never work when the Jays try them.

Again, i do not deny that such emotions tend to be irrational at time. Emotions tend to be, as a rule.

Yeah but I was lucky enough to be here for the magic of '85 through '93. '92 and '93 seemed to have everything go right, and 1985 was very magical even with the frustrating playoff loss to the Royals (a team you could respect with George Brett and knowing they kept banging their heads in the playoffs for years previous).

The magic in the '92 and '93 seasons was the massive confidence they had in knowing they could overcome any lead, and shut down any team's late inning offense.

IMO, bad Umpiring in 1985 was the only thing to keep Toronto out of the World Series. The loss of Bobby Cox was the only thing that kept them out in 1986.

In '92 and '93, it seemed to be an art form with them to be continually beating an opposing Team's closer. It seemed they out pitched everyone in 1992 and out hit everyone in 1993.

If we're talking about who _is_ winning, or who _did_ win, it's Baltimore, full stop. If we're talking about who's _going to_ win, then it's not disrespectful to the Orioles to try to figure out just _how_ they won up to now and whether they're going to be able to keep doing it. If we're talking about the Jays' lamentable position, it's not sour grapes to conclude that the Orioles' recipe probably isn't one for the Jays to try to replicate.

Bingo.  Why this is so difficult for some people to grasp I have no idea.

'86 had a few issues - 9 1/2 back thus hard to see a manager recovering all of that. If Cox would've benched Upshaw (91 OPS+ out of a 1B is not enough), figured out what happened to Stieb quicker (ERA+ of 89, but ERA of 5.80 in the first half, 3.35 in the second), figured out what to do with that pen outside of Henke & Eichhorn (no other reliever over 100 for ERA+) then who knows. The Jays were the last team eliminated (with 8 games left) when Duane Ward had a horrid start against Boston 1 IP 4 runs.

1987 was clearly on Jimy Williams - Upshaw having his 2nd bad year in a row while Fred McGriff and Cecil Fielder split DH duties with both having OPS+ over 130. Playing Garth Iorg at 2B all year despite a 44 OPS+ (Manny Lee was better defensively with a 67 OPS+, Liriano at 72, but only Sharperson had a shot early in the year and he was at 43). Continued to refuse to let Mulliniks face LHP despite Iorg's struggles and Gruber's (77 OPS+). Lots of oddities on that team. Gillick deserves some of the blame too for not fixing 2B at some point or dumping Upshaw. If the manager refuses to do the right thing you remove his favourite toys so he stops playing with them.

1988 just 2 games back, remove the silly drama pre-season with Bell as DH Moseby in LF and Sil Campusano in CF and I bet those 2 games could've been made up. Not to mention the oddities of Ducey outplaying Campusano but Campy getting almost 100 PA more to show he couldn't play. Or Todd Stottlemyre stinking it up as a rookie while Cerutti & David Wells were in the pen. 1989 made the playoffs as did 91 and 92 and 93. 1990 was just 2 games back but few choices jump out at you as just plain bad (maybe keep Wells in the rotation more, play Mookie Wilson less).

Those years were amazing - it was easy to see the Jays making the playoffs each season with just a few breaks (or by not hiring Jimy Williams). Sigh. Lets hope a miracle happens and we see that again someday.

To the surprise of no one, the Blue Jays have officially begun talks with Buffalo about a possible affiliation next year. Per the blog entry, it's unlikely that an official announcement on an affiliation will come before Tuesday.

"If we're talking about the Jays' lamentable position, it's not sour grapes to conclude that the Orioles' recipe probably isn't one for the Jays to try to replicate."

Absolutely wrong. The Orioles recipe this offseason was adding 2 midlevel starters, and a biomechanical guru pitching coordinator who focused on keeping pitchers healthy and effective. They ended up lucky with Hammell who has pitched more like a 2 than a 3, while getting what was expected from Chen. Peterson has succeeded in preventing major arm injuries to Orioles pitchers. As far as effectiveness it has been a mixed bag (as is often the case of pitchers without any track record of success), but the sheer number of healthy arms has enabled them to rotate pitchers in and out. Those that are pitching well start and those that aren't get replaced.

Later in the season, another part of the recipe was improving defensively. They replaced a defensive liability at 3rd with a whizkid rookie with plus defensive tools, (a recipe the Jays used last year), and added a plus defender in left.

What the heck is wrong with this? People are so focused on the luck aspect on their season, they fail to see the real positives that enabled them to use that luck to be where they are now.

Just like I resent it when the Yankees desperately resort to a couple of scrap heap pitchers and get outstanding work from them (last year) and other sorts of things that seem to never work when the Jays try them.

One might suggest that any success the Jays have enjoyed the last few years is largely attributable to a scrap heap third baseman acquired from the Pirates who somehow magically morphed into Babe Ruth. With enough time having passed now, that unlikely transmogrification is seemingly long forgotten.

 

"Absolutely wrong. The Orioles recipe this offseason was adding 2 midlevel starters, and a biomechanical guru pitching coordinator who focused on keeping pitchers healthy and effective."

Presented with such conviction. Is there any evidence that demonstrates Rick Peterson has had any direct effect on reducing pitching injuries over his career much less his short stint with Baltimore? Besides being able to fix Victor Zambrano in 10 minutes of course. I would love for it to be true, but other than the marketing for his company (3P) I can't find anything quantifiable. As for the mid-level starters, I would debate whether those expectations were reasonable for each acquisition but it is irrelevant. Baltimore starters have combined for the 9th best ERA, FIP, and xFIP in the AL. Yes, they had a plan. Exactly how the execution of that plan, when combined with an equally below average offence and horrid defence, has positively contributed to their remarkable success this season is lost on me.

Lets see... improving on defense is most definitely something the Jays are doing. Lawrie/Escobar/Hech next year for the infield plus whoever at 1B will be an amazing setup. The outfield will either be Gose/Rasmus/Bautista or Sierra/Rasmus/Bautista most likely with Gose & Sierra both being defensive wiz kids. Behind the plate if JPA is replaced it would be by d'Arnaud who is viewed as having a strong arm and has been viewed positively defensively throughout his minor league career.

Basically the Jays seem to be hunting down improvements defensively every chance they get. EE at 1B is probably better than Lind given EE could at least play 3B while Lind was a marginal LF and viewed as marginal at 1B. Next challenge is getting Bautista, who has a good arm but not the best range, to 1B or DH should Sierra & Gose both hit well in the majors. Then the outfield would be 'wow' as would the infield outside of 1B.

"Is there any evidence that demonstrates Rick Peterson has had any direct effect on reducing pitching injuries over his career"

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/946/is-rick-peterson-a-miracle-worker
http://fcpbaseballreport.com/blog/2012/05/22/orioles-embrace-biomechanics-develop-bundy-organization/

How much is Peterson's doing and how much is luck is anyone's guess. But sending 40 pitchers to James Andrews clinic to prevent injuries in my estimation is better than not sending them. Why shouldn't the Jays try to copy the O's in that regard, especially when this is the second time in less than 5 years the team has had a rash of serious pitcher injuries (McGowan/Marcum/Litsch in late '08 early '09).

As for your other points, I did state they got lucky with Hammell, but Chen was rated the #19 FA this past offseason by Keith Law.

As far as the O's pitching in general, they may only have an ERA+ of 104 this year, but were at 86 last year. That, to me, seems a massive improvement.

One might suggest that any success the Jays have enjoyed the last few years is largely attributable to a scrap heap third baseman acquired from the Pirates who somehow magically morphed into Babe Ruth. With enough time having passed now, that unlikely transmogrification is seemingly long forgotten.

The difference though, is that Bautista wasn't acquired TO be a starter. He basically had to force them to play him everyday (by taking advantage of a circumstantial opportunity)


I don't really resent that.

When a team acquires a guy, who's just a guy and not expected to be anything and he jumps up there and TAKES a job, that's cool - no matter what team it happens too (albeit if it happens over and over and over again, as in the Rays bullpen, the magic tends to fade and the resentment returns). but when you make a move that's not supposed to work and it does, that rubs me the wrong way.

If the Yankees had signed Colon and Garcia to minor league deals with ST invites, fully expecting Phil Hughes and/or whoever to be in the rotation and the old guys TAKE the jobs, I'm okay with that.


(now watch someone go out and prove to me that's just what happened - but I don't remember it that way)


Or hey, maybe I'm just rationalizing it because I'm biased. That's not impossible.