Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

It has been a roller-coaster ride for Blue Jay fans this season. There were the highs of the early season when the Jays were at the top of the division and able to take on all challengers. Now the Jays wins are few and expectations are low. The Jays record in August was 9-19, a 52 win season pace. But the Jays won four of their last five games in the month, two in New York and two against Tampa. From August 1 through August 25 the Jays record was 5-18, a 35 win season pace. Now the Jays have started September 0-3 and there is little expectation of a win on any night.

The Jays struggles down the stretch have brought the future of John Farrell into focus. We debated this last week but be sure to vote in the poll on the left side of the page.

One of the disappointments of the season has been the inability of the Jays young prospects to show they will help the team in 2013. Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and Luis Perez will miss most of 2013. Henderson Alvarez might need some more minors time if the Jays can add some pitching in the off-season. Travis d'Arnaud was injured. And Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra and Adeiny Hechavarria have shown how hard it is to break into the major leagues. Each of them look like they need at least another half season in AAA. Sierra had been the most successful of the threesome but he is hitting .143 in his last ten games.

The Jays are likely to announce some call-ups today. Anthony Gose, Chad Beck and David Carpenter are the most obvious call-ups. Trystan Magnuson could get a call too.

So is there anything to look forward to in the last month of the season?

Posted by Gerry on Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:09 AM EDT.

September Blues | 46 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

China fan - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#263010) #

David Carpenter, not Drew, surely?

Matthew E - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#263011) #

So is there anything to look forward to in the last month of the season?

Of course.

Baseball!

China fan - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#263012) #

"...there is little expectation of a win on any night..."

Perhaps a little harsh. Despite their decimated lineup, the Jays managed to split their last series.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#263015) #

I think one thing this year is showing is that winning a wild card spot is not necessarily going to be easy. Right now the two teams in a position to do so (Oakland and Baltimore) have winning percentages of .567 and .560, respectively. The three teams chasing them (TB, Detroit, LAA) have winning percentages of .548, .537, and .533.

The road back to the WS arguably isn't a whole lot easier than it was a year ago. At least in 2012, you have to be pretty darn good just to get (roughly) a 50-50 ticket into the first round of the postseason. The Jays are going to have to be substantially better next year even to have a shot.

Gerry - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#263016) #

Too many Carpenters...fixed.

I may have been harsh but I think the Jays have been playing unexciting baseball and too often it is not good watching. Being held hitless for so long by Joe Saunders was painful.

CeeBee - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#263019) #

Bautista, Lawrie and even Arencibia have been missed a lot and Johnson, Escobar and Rasmus have not done a lot to help poor Edwin who seems to be the only hitter who still knows how to hold a bat most days. Davis has been ok but he should be the 4th outfielder IMO, not the fulltime leftfielder. The pitching's been pretty good except for Romero and Alvarez but my oh my has the hitting gone south.

BalzacChieftain - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#263026) #

I've made my usual September shift as far as interest in baseball is concerned. It's at this time that I familiarize myself a lot more with the teams in playoff contention and give myself a month of exciting baseball to watch. I will still follow the Jays through September, but with the perspective of thinking about how current progress will help the team in 2013.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#263029) #

Weirdly, I've actually started rooting for Baltimore. Hopefully next year the Jays can be the underdog to watch.

Thomas - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#263030) #

I'm cheering for the A's. I can't bring myself to root for a divsion rival (unless the Rays or Orioles are playing the Yanks or Red Sox) and I also predicted the A's would be a good team this year in my AL West preview and I believe I wrote somewhere that they'd finish over .500. I didn't forsee wild card contention though.

rtcaino - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#263032) #

I'm rooting for the O's to beat out the Yanks.

I am then withdrawing all support for them.

finch - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#263035) #

this particular season has left me with a lot of off season questions.

will the jays trade for any competitive balance draft picks?

will the jays arrange a wink-wink arbritration deal with it's current FA players to reject a 14M arb offer in order to gain a comp pick?

will the jays take the increase in attendance put that back into player FA spending? It's rough $10M so far with an average increase per game attendance of 5,000 and the avg ticket price of $24.81.

things that make you go hmmmmm

Beyonder - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#263037) #

Isn't KJ our only meaningful free agent? After this year, it would have to be a hell of a wink to get him to pass up 14 million.

ayjackson - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#263039) #

Villanueva would be our most meaningful free agent. I could see an arb offer there. If he accepts, we can try to sign him long term. If he declines and finds little interest elsewhere, we can try to sign him long term.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#263040) #

Competitive Balance Picks are only tradeable in-season, and as it looks, quite expensive. To be worth a Qualifying Offer, the future Free Agent would: 1) Earning at least that much; 2) Expecting to earn more, or a longer contract; 3) A Stud, expecting the BIG deal. Right now, we have none of the above.

Original Ryan - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#263042) #

I'm cheering for the A's.

Same here. The A's were the team I temporarily parked my allegiance with when I became fed up with the Gord Ash regime in Toronto, and I kept them as my second-favourite team after Ash's firing. I hope they manage to go a bit further in the playoffs this time around.

Beyonder - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#263046) #

AYJ. Of course. Don't know why I didn't remember him. Can you see this team offering him 14 million on a 1-year deal though? What was our best guess earlier as to the type of deal he would command? I thought it was something in the area of 3 yrs, 20 million? Is that way off? If not, he'd be a fool to turn down the qualifying offer.

Also, if the Jays were to do that, they surely wouldn't leave him in middle relief. And I don't think AA has any interest in a one-year stop-gap starter.

scottt - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#263047) #

There are no wink-wink deals to reject competitive offers, because the rejecting player would cost a draft pick to a signing team.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#263049) #

scottt is right. The qualifying offer is a poison pill, making FA's less desirable. How much would KJ get on the open market if he cost a team it's 1st round pick (and the bonus pool money that goes along with that pick)? He would be lucky to be offered a major league contract.

ayjackson - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#263050) #

It's going to take a minimum of 3 years and $7-8m per year to sign Villanueva unless the wheels fall off. And when Sanchez and Grienke start signing, don't be surprised if CV's number goes up and interested parties go up.

My proposed arb offer is made assuming he'd rather have a multi year deal around $25m than a one year $13m. So even though you offer him arb, you'd do it under the assumption that he would be your #4 or #5 starter for three years.

So what if he declines and no-one wants to surrender a draft pick, then you can pick him up on a multi-year deal at a discount from what he would otherwise cost.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#263051) #

That's a very Machiavellian plan, ay, though I'd highly doubt CV's agent would allow the Jays to screw his client over and then sign a discounted multi-year deal with the club. In fact, if I were CV's agent, I'd take the ~$13.2 million 1 yr deal.

scottt - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#263054) #

At this point, you probably assume that Villanueva will give you an ERA around 3.0. The real question is how many innings over 3 years?

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#263055) #

Did you mean era around 4.0?

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#263057) #

Villanueva must pitch better/more consistently from this point forward as this is almost last year's IP.

ayjackson - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#263059) #

If he declined arb and got no offers, it is the agent who is guilty of screwing over CV, not the jays. If he accepts and signs a three year deal, there are no losers.

hypobole - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#263065) #

There is no FA arb in the new CBA, it's a one year qualifying offer in the neighborhood of $13.2 million.

ayjackson - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#263069) #

QO or arb, point is the same. Provided he keeps it up until the end of the year, I'd be fine with the risk of overpaying CV for one year if the upside is an affordable three year deal or a compensatory draft pick.

I'd also be fine paying the 2.7 million in March to cancel his contract (still part of the CBA?) if something better came along over the winter.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#263070) #

Without re-signing Carlos Villanueva and Brandon Lyon, and listening to everything the Jays are saying, we have this:

Sergio Santos, Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, Brad Lincoln, Aaron Loup, Brett Cecil in the Bullpen.

With Ricky Romero, Henderson Alvarez and J.A. Happ as options joining Brandon Morrow and A.A.'s Rotation acquisitions.

adrianveidt - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#263072) #

I think the Jays should fire Farrell, and cut payroll to sub-Pirates levels so the Rogers stock price will go up.

Lylemcr - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#263077) #

Everything that could go wrong, seemed to have gone wrong this year. From Majors to A. Sometimes luck is as important as skill. You would hate to have any knee jerk reactions.

vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#263084) #

will the jays take the increase in attendance put that back into player FA spending? It's rough $10M so far with an average increase per game attendance of 5,000 and the avg ticket price of $24.81.

Let's hope that the attendance at the end of the year is still above last year. Anymore games like the 12-0 stinker last night, and we might end up with less fans overall for 2012.. If I had taken my hard earned dollars and paid to see last night's game, I'd be pretty upset.. 2 shutouts in a row.

Also, I think I know what the difference for the Os is this year: they figured out how to beat the Jays (or the Jays forgot how to beat the Os). Wasn't our record something like 14-4 last year against Baltimore? I'm pretty sure it's around 4-12 right now.. That's 10 extra wins right there!

Chuck - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#263087) #

If I had taken my hard earned dollars and paid to see last night's game and been rained on in a building with a roof, I'd be pretty upset

92-93 - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#263098) #

A roof that's often closed when it need not be, might I add.

jgadfly - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#263108) #

Beeston's take on rain at the RC as quoted by John Lott http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/09/05/rogers-centre-roof-not-always-an-easy-fix-for-blue-jays-staff/

" ... Instead of providing fans with another open-air game, �it actually resulted in what to me was an embarrassing moment,� Beeston said. "

... and here I thought that after having Johnson, Cooper or even Escobar batting cleanup, Beeston would have been so insensitized as to become so inured that he would be incapable of

ever experiencing any embarrassment what-so-ever, ever again.

Parker - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#263110) #

It's perfectly understandable that an organization as strapped for cash as Rogers would have trouble with the maintenance of a building for which they paid full market value.

The way this organization is run, paying customers should probably just be grateful the stadium hasn't collapsed on their heads.

hypobole - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#263111) #

At SB Nation, Rob Neyer has a piece entitled "Ubaldo Jimenez's Historic Ineptitude". In it he points out that Ubaldo's ERA, 5.61 at the time of writing, would be the worst by any qualified Indians pitcher since 1901.

Rickey Romero's ERA is 5.85.

Magpie - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#263122) #

Ubaldo's ERA, 5.61 at the time of writing, would be the worst by any qualified Indians pitcher since 1901.

Romero's 5.85 ERA is the worst by any qualified Jays pitcher since 2000 (Chris Carpenter, 6.26 in 175 IP)

And he's still got time to get below Cory Lidle's 5.75 in 2003. Baby steps...

Mike Green - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#263123) #

Romero has been decidedly unlucky this year (with particularly poor bullpen support). While his ERA in 2012 bears no relation to his previous performance, his FIP and particularly his xFIP reflect simply a bad year but nothing particularly out of the ordinary for him. His career ERA, FIP and xFIP are 4.07, 4.26 and 4.03. At this point, that seems to me to be an optimistic but reasonable expectation from him.

Mike Green - Friday, September 07 2012 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#263148) #

Courtesy of BBRef:

The Stumble to 500,000 Errors
499,845 MLB errors since 1876.
500,000th expected in 9 days.

dan gordon - Friday, September 07 2012 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#263159) #

There's an interesting article on Rotoworld by Matthew Pouliot today running through the top 50 free agents likely to be available this offseason, and what kind of contract they might be able to get. He pegs Villanueva at 2 years and $10-12 million (total, not per season). There are quite a few decent to good starting pitchers available, guys like Dempster, Peavy, Iwakuma, Marcum, E.Jackson, Floyd, Lewis, Santana, Guthrie, Haren, Lohse, Kuroda, A.Sanchez and Greinke. AA has said the rotation is where he wants to improve the team and there certainly are players available. I guess the question is, will the money be available?

BlueJayWay - Friday, September 07 2012 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#263160) #

So..... Lawrie and Arencibia activated from the DL, but Happ is gone for four months with broken foot. Whatever....

John Northey - Friday, September 07 2012 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#263161) #

It has been a bad year for Romero. Thought I'd do a quick check of Jays worst ERA lifetime with 100+ IP just to see how bad it looks...

#1: Robert Person 6.18 in 177 2/3 IP
#2: Justin Miller 5.89 in 186 1/3 IP
#3: Joey Hamilton 5.83 in 253 1/3 IP
#4: Phil Huffman 5.77 in 173 IP
#5: Cory Lidle 5.75 in 192 2/3 IP

Dave Stewart at 5.09 is the worst for guys who were part of the 1983-1993 teams. Seeing #1 and #3 there sure helps explain the nightmare that was the Ash years - guys developed here were great but when he did a trade boy was it bad.

So basically in Romero we have Joey Hamilton level performance when we were hoping for something closer to Roy Halladay. Ugh.

Alex Obal - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 05:39 AM EDT (#263162) #

His Suckage Index hovers below 1000, though. For now.

bpoz - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#263163) #

Maybe Romero is a 3 good years, 1 bad type of guy. Nobody is good all the time.

Ash had Guzman & Hentgen. Also Cone & Clemens. Lastly Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar & Halladay. David wells. That is not bad. But there were some injuries & non performances.
He was either cost cutting or rebuilding. Maybe not being able to successfully replace Duane Ward was the biggest problem.

Richardi had Halladay, Carpenter & Escobar. He added Luke Procopeck, AJ Burnett & BJ Ryan. He also had Marcum, McGowan, Litsch & Janssen. Injuries/bad luck was the major factor IMO in his lack of success. BJ could have been the replacement for Ward but injuries. Fraser & Downs were a big boost to the pen.

AA? IMO he was more into building in his first 2 years. Asset acquisition & build up the farm. This 3rd year was lost to injury & Romero's struggles, IMO no chance realistically. Year 4 should be a very interesting challenge. The 2012 injuries have to be factored into 2013 as a lingering concern, will Bautista & JPA regain their power.

John Northey - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#263165) #

2013 will be interesting as, if Baltimore makes it, everyone in the East will have been in the playoffs since 2009 except for the Jays who haven't made it since the days of 2 divisions and no wild cards.

I have to think a lot of pressure is on AA now as he keeps getting compliments on the farm but we are, miles from the playoffs come September again. Out of 1st since April 24th, last in 2nd April 21st, last in 3rd (the lowest you can be to be in the playoffs) on May 23rd. Yesterday's win moved the Jays out of last place for the first time since July 29th.

Injuries did kill this team - 11 starting pitchers, 32 pitchers overall including 2 games by our backup catcher. "Just" 21 hitters of whom only 4 have OPS+ over 100 (Encarnacion 151, Bautista 134, Snider 123, Cooper 109). Non-pitchers with OPS+ 50 or less include Hechavarria, Gose, Gomes, Vizquel and McCoy - 454 plate appearances between them so far. Yikes. Last year there were 370 PA for that poor of a hitter. 310 PA in 2004, the last year from hell, mostly going to backup catchers (Cash & Quiroz).

For 2013 the Jays need a lot to go right. Fewer injuries, Bautista & Encarnacion continuing to hit, Lawrie hitting closer to what we dreamed of, Hech or someone else stepping up at 2B while Escobar comes back at SS, Romero pitching like a front of the rotation guy, Morrow pitching like this season (but healthy), etc. There is a lot of talent there, but geez does it seem nuts to be stuck a mile behind Baltimore.

JB21 - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#263171) #

Baltimore has a RF/RA ratio similar to us, I'm not too worried about them.

John Northey - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#263208) #

Not so much worried about them, as factoring in how it looks to the higher ups that Baltimore might be in the playoffs even though they were rated far below the Jays coming into the season. Puts AA and Farrell on the hot seat I'd think even though most of us know it is largely luck based that pushed Baltimore to the levels they are at (one run record, doing well despite negative run differential).

September Blues | 46 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.