Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The playoffs have begun on one front while the regular season wrapped up on three others.



The Vancouver Canadians celebrate their playoff opening victory against Everett at Nat Bailey Stadium Monday afternoon.


Las Vegas 3 Colorado Springs 2

Colorado Springs, CO - The record books will show the Blue Jays four-year partnership with Las Vegas ending on a winning note.  That's if rumors out of Buffalo are true that the Bisons will become the Jays new Triple-A affiliate in 2013.  Ryan Eigsti singled home the first run of the game in the second inning.  Luke Hughes homered in the fourth to give him five on the year.  Danny Perales broke a 2-2 tie with an RBI single in the sixth.  Every player in the lineup had at least hit with Perales and Chris Woodward getting two apiece, including a double.  Woodward scampered home with the winning run.  Anthony Gose also had a double.

Lefty Bill Murphy (8-5) enjoyed one of his better starts by holding the Rockies affiliate down to a pair of runs over five frames.  He scattered four hits, a walk and a hit by pitch and collected eight groundball outs.  David Carpenter and Jerry Gil allowed just one hit apiece in their scoreless frames.  The only difference was Carpenter struck out a batter.  Lefty Nate Robertson gave up a hit in two-thirds of a scoreless inning but Chad Beck managed to strand that runner.  Beck gave up a double and he plunked a batter before getting his 18th save.  Of note, Troy Tulowitzki was 0-for-3 for the SkySox.


New Britain 8 New Hampshire 5

New Britain, CT
-  The Fisher Cats wound up being swept in four straight by the Twins affiliate to end 2012.  Brian Van Kirk lifted a two-run shot out of the yard to give the Fisher Cats a 2-0 lead in the second inning, his seventh of the year.  Brian Jeroloman laid down a sacrifice bunt to score another in the fourth inning and that was followed by a Ryan Goins RBI single.  Jake Marisnick scored the final Fisher Cats run of 2012 by jacking one out of the park for his second of the year.  Van Kirk, Jeroloman, Marisnick and Gabe Jacobo all had two hits.  Marisnick drew a walk while Jeroloman and Ryan Schimpf took one for the team.  Mark Sobolewski singled and stole a base.

Yohan Pino
(10-8) was beaten like a drum as the Rock Cats scored six times on 10 hits, one walk and one hit by pitch.  Pino gave up a homer but struck out five.  Chorye Spoone managed to work around a hit and two walk to post 2.1 scoreless innings in which he struck out a batter.  Trystan Magnuson surrendered a run on two hits and a walk in one inning while Sam Dyson also was scored upon once.  He allowed a hit, issued a walk and plunked a pair of batter in the eighth inning.


Lake County 15 Lansing 6

Lansing, MI
- It's a good thing this game didn't count for anything!  The Lugnuts actually led 6-0 by scoring all of their runs in the third.  An Andy Fermin single scored the first run and K.C. Hobson brought home two more with a base hit.  Chris Hawkins, Gustavo Pierre and Chris Peters each followed with RBI singles of their own.  Hobson, Hawkins, Pierre and Jason Leblebijian all had two hits with Hobson earning a walk and Leblebijian getting hit by a pitch.  Peters had a single and a base on balls.

Kramer Champlin gave the Lugnuts three good innings as he shutout the Indians affiliate on two hits while striking out a pair.  Tim Brechbuehler endured an ugly 1.2 innings in which he surrendered six runs on four hits and three walks while whiffing just one.  Aleson Escalante (1-2) had a putrid pitching line as he could not strand three of Brechbuehler's runners.  He wound up allowing six runs of his own (five earned) on seven hits.  He struck out one and did not walk anyone.  Philip Brua was not much better over his 1.2 frames.  He could not strand two Escalante runners and was charged with three runs of his own on three hits and two walks.  He did strike out a pair.  Blake McFarland worked a shutout ninth that featured one K.


Vancouver 1 Everett 0 (Game 1 - NWL West Division Final)


Jorge Flores scampers home with the only run of Game 1 of the NWL West Division Final at Nat Bailey Stadium Monday afternoon.

Kellen Sweeney points toward the Canadians dugout after his RBI single scored Jorge Flores in the eighth inning.

Vancouver, BC - It was a playoff atmosphere at Nat Bailey Stadium as over 4,600 fans showed up for a beautiful Monday afternoon of baseball under a cloudless sky. The only run of the game came in the eighth inning when Jorge Flores banged a double off the left field wall, moved to third on a passed ball and came in to score on a Kellen Sweeney single to right. Flores had the lone two-hit game for the C's, who also got doubles from Christian Lopes and Matt NewmanTucker Frawley had the other base hit. D.J. Davis was 0-for-3 but did lay down a sacrifice bunt.

Roberto Osuna
pitched a no-hitter through three innings of no-hit baseball but the AquaSox made him work for it as they drew three walks in some lengthy at-bats.  Osuna also plunked a hitter but he wound up striking out six.  Jonathan Lucas kept the no-hitter going for two more innings.  He provided 2 1/3 innings of scoreless relief, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out one.  Everett's first hit did not come until the sixth inning.  Lefty Colton Turner came into the game and was called for a highly questionable balk before throwing a pitch.  He overcame that by throwing 2.1 shutout innings, striking out three.  Wil Browning (1-0) retired the only hitter he faced to end the eighth.  Arik Sikula slammed the door shut by striking out two of the three hitters he faced to get the save.


Roberto Osuna struck out six Everett AquaSox Monday, five of them swinging.

Observations - Osuna was settling in around 92 miles per hour fastball but he did reach as high as 95 for his second strikeout of the game and touched 97. He was around 80-82 MPH with his changeup and around 76 with his curveball.  Osuna really had to work to get out of that third inning after Frawley and Sweeney were unable to catch a foul ball between home and third. Sweeney did redeem himself by handling a tough groundball at third he had to come in on to strand two runners at the corners.  He has been outstanding at the hot corner all season long. Jonathan Lucas and Colton Turner were in the high 80s according to the radar gun.  Turner showed a lot of composure to overcome a terrible balk call.Arik Sikula managed to hit 92 and 94 on the radar gun for his two strikeouts that ended the game.  He got some help from D.J. Davis, who caught a ball in center field at the warning track.  Davis was 0-for-3 but did execute a sacrifice bunt, which he nearly beat out, to move runners into second and third with nobody out.  However, Sweeney struck out and Balbino Fuenmayor flied out to end the threat.  Art Charles looked to have a home run in the second but the ball died at the warning track in center.  Carlos Ramirez had the hat trick as he was caught looking three times and striking out twice with runners in scoring position.  He held back from spiking his batting helmet into the ground after one of his strikeouts.  Dwight Smith Jr. pinch-hit for Frawley to lead off the eighth and was robbed of a hit after a nice diving catch by Everett left fielder Alfredo Morales.  Everett starter Dylan Unsworth put in a valiant effort, taking a no-decision despite 6.1 scoreless frames and striking out eight.  He topped out around 86-89 MPH.  Finally, Miss BC Roll won the Sushi Race today!


Manual scoreboards are awesome!



*** 3 Stars!!! ***


3. Danny Perales, Las Vegas


2. Colton Turner, Vancouver


1. Kellen Sweeney, Vancouver




Extra Innings...

The Las Vegas Review-Journal
is already looking ahead to life after the Blue Jays with the 51s but also look back on 2012.  Plus, they have a chat with pitching coach Bob Stanley and catch up with outfielder Anthony Gose.

In case you missed it, here is audio of Jeff Sammut of Sportsnet 590 The Fan speaking with Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News about the potential Bisons-Blue Jays partnership.

The New Hampshire Union Leader
reviews a rough 2012 for the Fisher Cats.

MLive.com gets comments from Midwest League manager of the year John Tamargo Jr. and Midwest League MVP Kevin Pillar on their latest honours.  Plus, Tamargo is the subject of the latest Lugnuts profile.

Canadians Clippings
takes a closer look at pitcher Colton Turner.

The Vancouver Sun
speculates on the future of C's president Andy Dunn.

How Sweeney Is! | 50 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
jerjapan - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#263006) #
With key injuries and disappointing performances of some of our higher ranked guys, aside from the Lansing 3, I'd say that overall this minor league season has been nearly as disappointing as the big league team.  That side, some real pitching talent at the lower levels still makes me very excited for 2013.

But man, Osuna has been the one surprising bright spot in my eyes.  So many Ks for such a young pitcher - where do the more seasoned minor league watchers see him finishing next year? 

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#263007) #
Slightly off-topic: MLBTR has a feature on the best waiver claims of the year. The top performer in terms of fangraphs WAR? Darin Mastroianni, who in 163 PA is 1.6 WAR, having "turned in a .266/.338/.378 batting line with three homers, 17 steals (in 19 attempts) and elite defense at each outfield position."

Meanwhile, Rajai Davis checks in at 1.0 WAR in 389 PA, and Colby Rasmus is at 1.3 WAR.

Also: Aaron Hill is at 4.2 WAR (and is signed through 2013), while Kelly Johnson is 0.6 WAR.

Sigh...
Beyonder - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#263009) #
Jerjapan. Until your post, I had a sense that a few big name prospects had disappointed, but did not realise what a crushing disappointment this minor league season has been. I quickly went through BA's top 30 prospect list, added a column to the far right titled "Stock +/-/=", and came up with this (apologies if formatting doesn't work -- I can never get the HTML script to work). Pretty ugly stuff. Sure there have been some nice pop up guys (Pillar, the Big 3 "2.0": Cole, Avendano, Osuna), but a lot of recent big name draftees have really performed poorly (Thon, Dean, Crouse, Knecht, Hawkins, Anderson, Sweeney).

No.# Player Position Grade Risk Stock +/-/=
1 Travis d'Arnaud C 60 Medium ++
2 Anthony Gose OF 65 High -
3 Jake Marisnick OF 60 High -
4 Daniel Norris LHP 60 High -
5 Justin Nicolino LHP 55 Medium ++
6 Aaron Sanchez RHP 60 High +++
7 Noah Syndergaard 60 High ++
8 Deck McGuire RHP 55 Medium ---
9 Drew Hutchison RHP 55 Medium ++
10 Asher Wojciechowski 55 High Traded
11 Matt Dean 3B 55 High --
12 A.J. Jimenez C 55 High Inc.
13 Adeiny Hechavarria 55 High -
14 Carlos Perez C 55 High Traded
15 Moises Sierra OF 50 Medium +
16 Dwight Smith Jr. 55 High --
17 Kevin Comer RHP 55 High Traded
18 Adonys Cardona RHP 55 High =
19 Kellen Sweeney 3B 55 High --
20 Joe Musgrove RHP 55 High Traded
21 Jacob Anderson OF 55 High ---
22 David Cooper 1B 45 Medium =
23 Michael Crouse OF 50 High ---
24 Marcus Knecht OF 50 High --
25 Christopher Hawkins 50 High -
26 John Stilson RHP 55 Extreme -
27 Dickie Joe Thon SS 55 Extreme --
28 Chad Jenkins RHP 45 Medium -
29 Christian Lopes SS 50 High +
30 Roberto Osuna RHP 50 Extreme +
Gerry - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#263014) #
Jake Marisnick finished the season strongly.  He hit .364 with a 966 OPS in his last ten games.  It didn't rescue his August, his OPS for the month was 617, but he showed some positive signs.  Over those last ten games, in 44 at-bats, he K'd only 3 times.  He did walk just once so there are obvious pitch selection issues he has to work on.  But I don't think his struggles in AA have dimmed his status.  He will come back in 2013 and should perform better. 
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#263017) #
By my count you have 8 ups, 3 sames and 4 traded. If i was ranking them I'd have Gose, Hech and Jenkins at at least even. Jenkins mostly on his ML work, the other 2 IMO have had pretty good years overall. I guess the big question would be the overall farm system developement of players. Some that were not ranked have stepped up and some of the ranked guys maybe should not have been ranked so high. I always am puzzled how guys who have not played pro or had a very limited exposure get ranked so high but thats just my gripe. I sure hope Buffalo happens for AAA as it would bring the top level back to a more balanced environment.
Beyonder - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#263022) #
CeeBee. I'm sure you could argue with any number of the individual calls -- but it's pretty hard to see the overall performance of that group of guys as anything other than disappointing. I realise they were always mostly high ceiling/high risk guys, but you would have hoped that a few more would have fulfilled their potential.

For whatever reason, I am much less high on Gose than just about everyone posting on this board.
ayjackson - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#263023) #

Subjectively, I'd say that Marisnick's prospect star has dulled somewhat this year, but I can see how that is unfair.  He had less than 300 PA's at A+, was apparently injured for some of that time, and then was seemingly rushed to AA midseason before really hitting his stride in Dunedin.  It's understandable that he might have a slow adjustment to AA, but he did end the year red-hot.

 

ayjackson - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#263024) #

Marisnick's 2012 was quite similar to his 2013 in hindsight, where he hit well in the GCL for 125 PAs, then was skipped over to Lansing where he struggled before finding some success in his final ten games.

Based on this, I expect he'll put up a nice .900 OPS full season in AA next year.

Oceanbound - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#263025) #
Marisnick's 2012 was quite similar to his 2013 in hindsight

If I had a time portal, I'd probably use it for something other than checking up on baseball prospects.
Beyonder - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#263027) #
Re: Gose's season. Even if we ignore his MLB misadventures, Gose's WRC+ (on fangraphs) for this season at AAA is only 108 (last year it was a healthy 124). Even the 108 skews high because as I understand it, fangraphs' WRC+ accounts for league factors -- but not for individual park factors. even with his age and tools, I don't see his production as justifying BA's #1 overall prospect status.
ayjackson - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#263028) #

Ha ha.  I meant 2010 season, of course.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#263031) #
Gose's numbers in 2011 were skewed by the relatively strong power numbers he put up taking advantage of NH's very short right field porch.
Beyonder - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#263033) #
"Gose's numbers in 2011 were skewed by the relatively strong power numbers he put up taking advantage of NH's very short right field porch."

And if stories are to be believed, his ISO was also skewed by a swing-for-the-fences approach (even with two strikes)at the plate mandated by the NH coaching staff. This was supposed to be the year he started laying down bunts and getting on base.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#263038) #
I think the biggest reason for the disappointing farm results has been the seeming whiff of the 2011 draft. By all accounts, there was a strong and deep crop of prospects and AA positioned the Jays to take full advantage with numerous extra picks. The early Jays picks especially were higher than most analysts projections and in most cases, the players chosen seem to have under-performed their draft status/signing bonuses, some by wide margins.

Pick #21 Tyler Beede (Law rank #30, BA #35) - Did not sign, reportedly over injury concerns. Pick became #22 in a weaker 2012 draft.

Pick #35 Jake Anderson (Law rank #88, BA #157) - reported pitch recognition issues seem to have been accurate.

Pick #46 Joe Musgrove (Law rank #95, BA #90) - value pick signed fast and cheap. did as well as expected, minor shoulder injury, then traded.

Pick #53 Dwight Smith (Law rank #73, BA #49) - No standout tools, pick considered meh, results have been meh.

Pick #57 Kevin Comer (Law rank #41, BA #102) - velocity drop from mid 90's to high 80's, traded. The perils of drafting HS pitchers Exhibit 1.

Pick #74 Daniel Norris (Law rank #35, BA#16) - Seen as major coup, a surprising sign, especially since bonus much less than expected. Some decent peripherals but much more hittable than expected. The perils of drafting HS pitchers Exhibit 2.

Beyond those, the 2 largest position player bonuses went to Christian Lopes (one of the very few bright spots) and Matt Dean who was almost as bad as Anderson offensively and seems absolutely brutal defensively.

One could reasonably argue the 2011 draft pick who may end up providing the most value for the Jays is Kevin Pillar, a Division 2 college senior picked #979 overall.


92-93 - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#263041) #
It's almost as if there's a reason JP told his scouts to go to the mall if they had time to kill over watching a high school game.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#263043) #
...only in odd years.  The high school pitching drafts from 2010 have done pretty well so far, while Deck McGuire has been a disappointment.

Youneverknow.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#263044) #
There is always a lottery aspect with HS pitchers (unless, apparently, they're named Dylan Bundy). AA's strategy has evidently been to amass a large volume of high-upside arms in the hope that some elite talent will emerge. It's too soon to say, obviously, but the Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicolino trio is very promising, even as some other arms have struggled. In any event, I think it's way too early to get worried about Norris.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#263045) #
Right now, I'm more annoyed by the fact that in Davis, the 2013 Jays may have an inferior (and pricier) fourth outfielder than the one they gave the Twins for free (Mastroianni).
brent - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#263052) #

Everyone is getting tied in knots over nothing. With the Jays draft, it doesn't matter which specific pick succeeds, the team is just hoping that some of them will meet their upside.

Don't get hung up on whether this one or that one busts. As long as the overall strategy works, then things will be fine.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 04 2012 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#263058) #
"With the Jays draft, it doesn't matter which specific pick succeeds"

Not so. The highest upside picks are the ones the team wants most to succeed. A successful Daniel Norris is a #2 MLB SP. A successful Kevin Pillar is a guy who'll give what Mastroianni is giving the Twins now.
ayjackson - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#263060) #
Pillar is not representative of Jays' high upside strategy though, so it is a bad example.
#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#263061) #
The bad news is Dunedin lost to Lakeland 1-0. The good news is the C's beat Everett 7-4 tonight to sweep that series in 2 straight. They will play Yakima or Boise in the league final Thursday night at the Nat.
Smithers - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#263062) #
That Vancouver win was behind a strong starting pitching performance by Taylor Cole who went 6 IP allowing only one unearned run.  Jorge Flores continued with the offensive heroics going 3 for 4 with two doubles and Art Charles hit a three run jack in the first to give the C's a lead they wouldn't let go of.  Could it be back-to-back NWL pennants for Vancouver?  If so, hope we can get more great pictures from you #2JB.
#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#263063) #
Thanks, Smithers! I got my tickets for Thursday. We will have to wait one more night to find out who the C's will play in the final. Boise scored a touchdown in the 9th to snap a 4-4 tie and went on to win 11-5 to force a third and deciding game in Yakima. Let's hope for an extra innings affair!
hypobole - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#263064) #
Pillar is not representative of Jays' high upside strategy though, so it is a bad example

Maybe so, but after the Nicolino pick in 2010, how many of the high upside draft strategy guys are succeeding?
TamRa - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 05:47 AM EDT (#263066) #
Maybe so, but after the Nicolino pick in 2010, how many of the high upside draft strategy guys are succeeding?

2010: Nolin, Pompey, Barnes, Conner
2011: Lopes, Burns, Rollins, Cole, arguably Stilson (if you assume he just ran out of gas at the end)
2012: No sufficant sample sizes


Oceanbound - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 06:37 AM EDT (#263068) #
Burns, Rollins and Cole were drafted as high upside players? Nolin also got a pretty small bonus, so I don't think he was one either.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#263071) #
If Pillar is not an example of high upside draft strategy, why would college guy reliever Danny Barnes be? Or as Oceanbound mentioned Burns, Rollins, Cole, Nolin? By most accounts, Stilson's violent delivery and previous injury history will probably make him bullpen bound as well eventually.
Moe - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#263074) #
I think the biggest reason for the disappointing farm results has been the seeming whiff of the 2011 draft.

I don't think one season worth of data is enough to proclaim this for HS draftees. And even if it ends up being true, that's the risk of drafting HS players; historically only a very small fraction develops into a true impact player. So if the Jays get one #1-2 SP out of the 2010 and 2011 draft combined, they did well.


Mike Green - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#263076) #
If all you get out of 2 drafts is one #2 starter, that would be quite a poor result.  A decent result from 2 drafts would be a #2 starter, a pretty good reliever, a solid everyday position player and a utility player. 


Moe - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#263078) #
If all you get out of 2 drafts is one #2 starter, that would be quite a poor result.  A decent result from 2 drafts would be a #2 starter, a pretty good reliever, a solid everyday position player and a utility player.

Obviously, I was referring to the gem of the draft. I'm sure there will be some bullpen pieces and bench players. Some might also get traded (as in this case), so you have to count the the return as something you got out of this draft.

As for the #2 pitcher, I was using the tough rating system Sickels posted the other day, according to which a #2 guy is the best pitcher on most teams and some don't even have that. If you get the 30th best pitcher in baseball out of 2 drafts combined and little else (some trade/bullpen/bench pieces), you did ok.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#263081) #
So, in 1997, the best starting pitcher was Tim Hudson drafted out of college in the 6th round by the A's.  In 1998, the best starting pitcher was C.C. Sabathia drafted out of high school in the 1st round by the Indians. 

Hudson was a great pitcher, but if all you get out two drafts is Tim Hudson, you're not going to win.  You need starting pitching, but it isn't enough to only get starting pitching. 

John Northey - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#263085) #
Wow Mike, takes a lot to satisfy you with drafts.  A general rule of thumb is getting 2 guys who are solid contributors out of a draft is a good thing.

Lets do a quick check of the 'productive years' of the 90's when the Jays seemed to do well in the draft but lousy in the trade department.  Drafts that are complete (if they ain't made it yet, they won't).  Listing guys with 100+ games in majors.

1990: Steve Karsay, Felipe Crespo, Tim Hyers
1991: Shawn Green, Alex Gonzalez, Chris Stynes (828 games), Ryan Franklin (did not sign), Ben Weber (reached at 30, 3 good years), Jose Silva
1992: Shannon Stewart, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff DaVanon (did not sign), Tim Crabtree
1993: Chris Carpenter, Adam Melhuse
1994: Chris Woodward, Gary Glover, Kevin Witt, Tom Davey
1995: Craig Wilson, Ryan Freel, Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly (did not sign), Brandon Duckworth (did not sign)
1996: Orlando Hudson (did not sign), Casey Blake, Josh Phelps, Billy Koch, Brent Abernathy, John Bale
1997: Michael Young, Vernon Wells, Orlando Hudson , Brad Hawpe (DNS), Chad Qualls (DNS), Mark Hendrickson, Sean Green (DNS)
1998: Felipe Lopez, Jay Gibbons
1999: Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Brandon Lyon

Wow, some pretty amazing drafts there, some where a lot of role players (a few hundred games, but WAR near 0) came in too.  Hard to believe it resulted in such mediocre teams.  1997 especially amazing with 3 guys over 20 WAR.  I think just 1994 didn't produce a future All-Star (Woodward cracked 100 games just once in his career).    So what #1/2 starters were here over 10 years?  Carpenter, Halladay and thats it (Hendrickson was a #5/long man).  Lots of everyday players (Rios, Johnson, Lopez, Young, Wells, Hudson, Blake, Phelps, Wilson, Stewart, Green, Gonzalez,...) though.  Wow, 12+ guys who played as regulars plus a HOF starter, an All-Star starter, solid closer (Koch), and many others.  No question that was a killer draft team but even then you get 34 guys with 100+ ML games = just over 3 a year.  I'd put that as a gold standard, 3 guys who had some success in the majors each season.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#263090) #
Nope.  On average, teams do better than Tim Hudson and nothing else over 2 years.    The A's themselves got Mulder and others in those 2 years. Typically, you get two players per year- so the Braves in 2000 drafted Adam Wainwright and Kelly Johnson.  The Red Sox drafted Delcarmen and Freddy Sanchez.  The Brewers got Krynzel and Corey Hart.  It wasn't a great year, but there was Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Grady Sizemore and Yadier Molina there  The following year there was Mauer, Teixeira, David Wright and Youkilis.  In each year, there were 3 or 4 really good pitchers.   

It isn't a great achievement to draft one really good player in 2 years, if that is all you get. 

Beyonder - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#263093) #
"It isn't a great achievement to draft one really good player in 2 years, if that is all you get."

I suspect that would go doubly for drafts where you have many additional first and second round picks, as was the case in 2010 and 2011.

I realise these guys were all lottery tickets, but I'm still surprised that so many of them have dropped completely off the prospect map. Matt Dean, Jacob Anderson, Crouse, Knecht, Thon, and Sweeney didn't just fail to live up to expectations -- their collective performances were almost inconceivably bad.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#263094) #
Don't get me wrong.  I am not giving up on most of these guys.  They are young, and have had developmental hiccups.  It isn't the same as a collegiate draft struggling in the Florida State League at age 23. 
Beyonder - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#263095) #
I guess I would add Dwight Smith to my earlier list of disappointments. When you look at the 2010 and 2011 draft years, the Jays have been infinitely more successful in their drafting of pitching prospects than in drafting hitters. Not since Marisnick in 2009 have they drafted anyone who projects to be an impact bat. Of course, they have overwhelmingly drafted pitchers in the early rounds of those drafts.

Moe - Wednesday, September 05 2012 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#263096) #
"Hudson was a great pitcher, but if all you get out two drafts is Tim Hudson, you're not going to win."

If you get a Tim Hudson and nothing else in one draft, you did above average. Teams may get 2 players on average but their sum is often less than Hudson.

If all you get from a draft are a few bench players and trade pieces, that draft is below average but not a disaster.

So, if the Jays get Tim Hudson out of the 2010 draft, and Happ (via trade) out of 2011 and some additional spare parts, that's quite a respectable outcome. It's not as good as we all hoped for (especially in light of the resources thrown into these 2 drafts), but it's enough not to label these drafts disasters. However, I agree that it would not be enough to win via the draft (hence the disappointment). That's the risk associated with this strategy.


TamRa - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 03:58 AM EDT (#263116) #
but I'm still surprised that so many of them have dropped completely off the prospect map. Matt Dean, Jacob Anderson, Crouse, Knecht, Thon, and Sweeney didn't just fail to live up to expectations -- their collective performances were almost inconceivably bad.

A WILD overstatement.

Crouse was never considered anything but a sleeper in the first place - his 2011 was not projected by anyone.

Laying him aside...

Here's the Top 20 on MLB (just an easily referenced professional list longer than 10):

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/affiliates/index.jsp?c_id=tor

Anderson was listed #13, Sweeney #15, Dean #16

Sweeney hit better this year than last year and finished strong. Anderson admittedly had a lost year, and Dean was up and down.

The process is FAR too early to suggest you drop such guys "off the map"

Thon you could worry about, but he obviously has a rather unique situation and it's no shame to anyone that a health situation arose that damaged his performance - perhaps permenantly?

Knecht is one year removed from being highly praised for his 2011 season. you don't go "off the map" because of one bad year.

Yes, there's reason for concern - you can throw Hawkins in that group too, IMO - and caution ought be exercised until they get on their feet (if they do) but it's far too soon to assume they are non-prospects.

Sobolewski, Brisker, maybe Hobson and Wilson - THOSE guys have had enough time to earn deep skepticism.

TamRa - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 04:05 AM EDT (#263117) #
Burns, Rollins and Cole were drafted as high upside players? Nolin also got a pretty small bonus, so I don't think he was one either.

Meh. A "draft strategy" doesn't apply only to some picks - the overall group represent the results of the "strategy" and I was mentioning successful players from the draft as a whole.

We can apply whatever post-hoc labels we want to in order to support the conclusion we want to reach. I see no value in that. The draft stands or falls as a whole, in my view.

Oceanbound - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 05:48 AM EDT (#263118) #
Meh. A "draft strategy" doesn't apply only to some picks - the overall group represent the results of the "strategy" and I was mentioning successful players from the draft as a whole

The question that was asked was "have the high upside picks been successful", not "was the draft successful". You're entitled to see the question as having "no value", but that was the question.

It's not a post-hoc label either, these players were seen as such at the time of the draft. This is why they were seen as tough signs, this is why they were given big bonuses. Just because a few late round college guys are playing decently at lower levels doesn't mean the HS strategy at the start of the draft has panned out. It's way too early to tell, but it's a legitimate matter of discussion.
Oceanbound - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 06:00 AM EDT (#263119) #
High upside strategy throughout the draft, rather.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#263120) #
Some of the early struggles are concerning, but young players can catch fire. Consider Delino DeShields, who hit 220/305/322 in his age-18 season in A ball. Repeating the league this year he hit 298/401/439 with 83 SB and improved his BB:K ratio significantly (from 52:118 to 70:108). He then did tolerably well in high-A ball over 114 PA late in the season.
Beyonder - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#263121) #
Re: "wild overstatement". I used the loose term "fell of the prospect map", so I take some responsibility for that. I agree with Mike Green (and I guess with you to some extent), that it is too quick to write these guys off. They may very well turn things around. What I wasn't expecting is that they would all have to turn things around in order to get back on track. I don't think it is too much to have expected two or three of these guys to have played in line with their projections.

What I will say is that all of these guys were top 30 Blue Jay prospects last year according to BA (including Crouse, who BA rated ahead of Knecht). After the seasons they have all just had, I don't think very many (if any) of those names will be on anyone's top 30 list next year. If they are it will be more a sign of an overall diminishment in talent level in the farm system.
bpoz - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#263124) #
How about looking at the progress of our own successful HS picks. Did they have hot & cold early years?

So Halladay, Carpenter, Green, Stewart, Wells, Rios. How slow/fast did these guys move up the ladder.

M McDade... 2007 pick was slow in 2007 & 08 but then has done well.

bpoz - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#263125) #
Anyone want to recap this years Intl FA signings. I lost track.

Anyway based on age, I looked at the DSL roster. For DOB 1995 OF Leudy Garcia, IFs Ronnie Demorizi, Deiferson Barreto & Gustavo Perinan, Pitchers Miguel Burgos, Carlos Rodriguez & Manuel Cordova. Also Pitchers born Dec 1994 Jonathan Torres, Miguel Castro, Jose Brito & Osman Gutierrez.

I do not know which ones are the high priced potential studs.
TamRa - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#263133) #
What I wasn't expecting is that they would all have to turn things around in order to get back on track. I don't think it is too much to have expected two or three of these guys to have played in line with their projections.

Reasonable. But on the other hand, Crouse and Knecht DID do that in 2011, so it's not like they fall into the catagory of having shown us nothing (which would describe Thon and, until the last couple of months, Sweeney)

It is reasonable, I think, to distinguish between those who have done well and stumbled, and those who have yet to live up to their billing at all.

As for the coming year's top 30, I'll bet some of those guys do show on that list because the negative sample is relatively small. Guys like Thon won't, but Dean, Anderson? I think you'll see them.
Beyonder - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#263134) #
Tamra. You are relentlessly upbeat. You could see the silver lining on a mushroom cloud.
ayjackson - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#263137) #
The Earth is overpopulated.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 06 2012 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#263138) #
Bravo, ayj.
How Sweeney Is! | 50 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.