Who should go on the 40-man to be protected from the Rule 5 draft?

As Marc mentions the GCL season is over.  The baby Jays finished with a 22-38 record. 

The leading hitter in OPS, with at least 50 AB's, was Emilio Guerrero who is now in Bluefield.  DJ Davis was the leader with at least 100 AB's.  He too is in Bluefield.

Two relievers, Brady Dragmire and Adaric Kelly, led the team in ERA for pitchers with at least 20 IP.  Alberto Tirado was the ERA leader for a starter, Shane Dawson had a better ERA than Tirado but he had just 3 starts in 10 appearances.  Among starters Tirado and Yeffry DelRosario led the team with almost identical WHIP's.

Thanks, Gerry. Is there any way for us to compare the performances of our GCL prospects to others in the league? I didn't see a league stats button on milb.com and I curious to see how the pitchers/batters compared to others overall.

Who should go on the 40-man to be protected from the Rule 5 draft?

As I mentioned on the other thread - there's very little room to spare.

Free agents on the current 40 (6):
Villianueva, Lyon, Frasor, Torrealba, Vizquel, Johnson

Players on 60 day DL who need reinstated (6):
McGowan, Litsch, Hutchison, Drabek, Perez, Santos

Players on 40 who MIGHT be removed in favor of others:
Mike McCoy, Chad Beck, Joel Carreno, Jesse Litsch?, Aaron Laffey?

One ranking of players who need protection and are not yet on the 40:

1. AJ Jiminez
2. Matt Wright
3. Trystan Magnuson
4. Marcus Walden
5. Kenny Wilson
6. Sean Ochinko
7. Brad Glenn
8. Ryan Schimpf
9. Ryan Goins
10. Michael Crouse
11. John Tolisano
12. John Diaz

Also in the "class" - Aherns, Van Kirk, Daly, Antolin, McElroy, Tepera, Talley, Jeroloman, Murphy, Boone, Griffin, Brisker, Ybarra, Kervin, Sobolewski, Nolan, Smith, Anderson

List does not include any Latin signings as it is sometimes difficult to pin down the signing date of those players six years or so after the fact. Jesse Hernandez is the most advanced such player not already on the 40, if he's not eligible then no such player is likely to be found in the system.

Status uncertain: Sean O'Sulivan


My guess?
McCoy definitely comes off and Jimenez definitely goes on.
Then you have to ask do they prefer to cover Wright and/or Magnuson rather than Beck and/or Carreno?

After that, I don't expect anyone else to be protected, nor do i expect anyone else to be drafted in the major league portion of the Rule 5. However, of those four relievers, any of them who are not protected likely will be taken.

The C's played their final regular season home game of 2012 and it began with the entire team singing O Canada. Roberto Osuna looked good in the first two frames, giving up just a single. He struck out Daniel Vogelbach, the 5-11, 275 pound slugger, swinging on three heaters at 93, 92 and 92 miles per hour.

The third inning began with a single that just eluded shortstop Jorge Flores and then Ian Parmley made the catch of the season by diving to snare a sinking liner in center. That was a huge play as a single and sacrifice fly plated the first run of the game. With Boise being the best hitting club in the league, they could have had a huge inning, something that happened way too many times in this 5 game series. Osuna did touch 94 and 95 on the radar gun. I was told by a C's official that as soon as Osuna was done, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos bolted from Nat Bailey Stadium. He missed a fine five-plus innings from Javier Avendano. He struck out seven, on curveballs at 74, 74 and 76. His other four were 91, 91, 91 and 92. Three of his Ks were of the caught looking variety. He did not look very happy when he was pulled for Arik Sikula after the first two batters reached on a single and a walk. For the first time, Arik Sikula was displayed on the scoreboard and not Andrew, which is how his name is still shown on the team's roster page and boxscores. Anyways, he was clocked at 93 and stranded the two runners by getting all 3 batters he faced, including a game ending strikeout.

Art Charles tied it with a towering home run that stayed fair down the right field line. The ball actually landed on the roof of the Vancouver Phoenix Gymnastics building. The C's took the lead for good in the fifth when Kellen Sweeney hit a wall banger to right and Balbino Fuenmayor, after being badly fooled on a pair of breaking balls, was not fooled again by lining a single up the middle to cash home Sweeney. Matt Newman cashed in Balbino & Art (who walked) with a double and later added a homer in the seventh. Newman also made a nice catch in foul territory in right field, having to contend with some chairs and an uncooperative Boise bullpen for the first out in the sixth.

Now the C's go to Yakima Tuesday for a five game set while Eugene, the team Vancouver is tied for first with, is at home to Spokane for a five gamer that starts tonight. If the two teams are still tied at the end of the regular season, Vancouver will go to the playoffs because they won the season series against the Emeralds. The winner will play Everett and should the C's prevail in the division race, they will likely play Game 1 at Nat Bailey Stadium on Labour Day Monday in the afternoon. Fingers crossed!

Shouldn't Avendano be protected from the Rule 5 draft? Sorry if its a stupid question, I'm not that familiar with the Rule 5 draft.

eldarion:

You can look at league leaders on milb.com.  It should be under the stats button but you probably have to click through to see it.  You can also look at baseball reference.  This search shows OPS leaders for the GCL.  Guerrero is 32nd, Davis is 53rd.  You also have to look at age.  Six of the top ten are 20 or older, the top two in OPS are 22 year olds.

I believe Anthopoulos was also at the Saturday game to watch Norris's maiden disaster. He was absolutely pummelled and I wonder if he would have been pulled earlier if the GM had not been there. If so, the decision (or lack of it) may cost the team a playoff place.
Taylor Cole came in and did what he does. The only 'hit' he conceded in 5.2 innings was a misplay by CF and the team closed to two runs with a player on 3rd with one out in 8th but could not close the deal

Thanks, Gerry. Davis was respectable given he was/is only 17. A .713 OPS is nothing to sneeze at for a 17 year old. He was also fourth in the league in stolen bases and, oddly, second in the league in being hit by pitches.

the rules I've seen don't give me a clear idea on Avendano because it's hard to find rules concerning the minor league portion of the draft/

I'd like to know the answer to that myself.

Who should go on the 40-man to be protected from the Rule 5 draft?

Not sure Walden gets protected - he's still in A ball and is going to be 24 soon.  despite the impressive numbers he's got this year, hasn't struck out many batters over the last 2 seasons.  At 27, Magnusson looks like a AAAA guy to me.  Wright is the sort of guy a team might take a flier on in the rule 5 but we've already got Crawford in that gig. 

For the position players, I think Wilson's good OBP and 50+ steals have earned him a spot, especially in an organization with an increasing emphasis on speed.  Schimpf leads our minor league system in homers and is the closest thing we have to a MLB ready 2B prospect but he's still iffy to me. 

I have no problem taking McCoy, Laffey, Litsch, Beck, Carreno or Crawford off.  Avendano and Jiminez are definite adds, and I think Wilson sneaks on there too.  Assuming Johnson, Frasor, Vizquel and Torrealba are gone, but Lyon and Carlos are back, we are at 38 (assuming I've added this correctly), leaving 2 spots for FAs or a couple of the organizational soldiers. 

Does Dyson need to be protected now that he's been on the 40 man, or can we take him off again?  That would free up one more spot,.  If he does need protection, why in the world did we call him up?

And what happens if we take off a player with a guaranteed contract like mcGowan or Lind - is that player essentially released? 

 

Walden is the kind of guy who would get taken in the rule 5 draft. Pitchers who can be stuck in the back of the bullpen and utility fielders are the most common rule 5 picks. Walden throws hard with a good sinker and could be projected to "survive" a rule 5 year.

I am worried we might lose Wilson after a breakout season if we don't protect him. Perhaps we can try to package 3/4 of these borderlines for a starting pitcher who is in the majors or major leagye ready?

Does Dyson need to be protected now that he's been on the 40 man, or can we take him off again? That would free up one more spot,. If he does need protection, why in the world did we call him up?

While Dyson would not be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft if the Blue Jays removed him from the 40-man roster, the challenge would be getting him off the roster. He would need to clear waivers, and there's a risk that another team would claim him.

As for why the Blue Jays called him up to pitch a grand total of 0.2 innings, your guess is as good as mine.

At 27, Magnusson looks like a AAAA guy to me

I agree. TamRa, why do you think he might be taken? Your list is appreciated, but your comment that you thought he was a prime candidate to be selected was surprising to me.

RE Magnuson - there were comments on Twitter that scouts were raving about his work down the stretch.

I don't necessarily THINK he will be protected, but he has probably a similar case for it to Beck and Carreno which makes him a possibility. Likewise, any of those three who are not protected are PRIME candidates to be drafted because they are certainly marginally capeable of filling out the back of a major league bullpen.

RE Wright - I don't think the presence of Crawford says anything about the protection of Wright. Like the other three relievers, he would be ripe for selection if unprotected.

RE Wilson - perhaps he should be higher on the list, but i don't think he's a lock to be protected by any means. He might well be selected if unprotected though, he's got to be considered. him and Jimenez are the only two hitters that i think demand consideration.

RE Avendano - if he's a guy we might lose, then he jumps way up the list. Probably the second most tempting guy on the list for opposing teams.

JarJapan - I think you are forgetting the guys on the 60 day - all six of them have to be added back to the 40 before the Rule 5 takes place.

Likewise, any of those three who are not protected are PRIME candidates to be drafted because they are certainly marginally capeable of filling out the back of a major league bullpen.

Again, I don't quite agree. At least in Magnuson's case, as he was never a highly rated prospect and wasn't doing a lot before he got hurt. (Most) Teams don't just want someone to fill out the back end of their bullpen. They want someone who can do that, but with a greater upside. See Gerry's point about Walden or a potential starting pitching prospect taken in the draft. There isn't a lot to be gained by taking a guy who might be an okay seventh reliever and then will stay there or as the team's fourth or fifth reliever for the next two or three years and, in the meantime, hamstringing the team's roster because of the Rule 5 restrictions.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but it is becoming rarer. Also, every draft has about 60 players you could squint at and see as a possible seventh reliever.

.591
.616
.565
.570

These are Kenny Wilson's annual OPS numbers since being drafted through 2011. That's in some 1230 PA. In nearly 400 PA in Lansing this year, he managed a .718. Now in roughly 100 hi A PA, as a 22 year old, he's OPS'd .862 and we're suddenly buying in?

I think Goins might be more attractive to another team in the Rule V.

LF, do you have any comments on Wilson's defence? 

When I saw him in 2010 in Lansing, he had good speed but his routes to the ball were awkward.  I felt that his overall range for a 20 year old centerfielder was average.  Perhaps he has improved since then.

Goins is 24, and a pretty good hitter but without enough defensive ability to be a regular.  It might be that Wilson (who is 22) is a late bloomer.  He has developed enough plate control this year that you can imagine the possibility of him being an every day leadoff hitter/centerfielder.  I agree that it is a long-shot, and I am not really worried if either ends up being exposed in the Rule 5, although I would prefer if the club chose marginal position player prospects over relief pitching prospects.

In addition to perhaps just being a late bloomer, there are two other things to consider with Wilson. First is health, as it has been reported that Wilson's shoulder is healthy for the first time in a couple of years. The second thing to consider is the fact that from what I understand he has stopped switch hitting. Now batting exclusively from the right, he has maintained his good walk numbers while drastically reducing his strikeouts. Perhaps LugnutFan can share his observations on Wilson as a RHB.

Wilson has also stolen 40+ bases every year since his first, when he stole 25 (vs. 3 CS) in under 200 ABs.  He was our 24th ranked prospect (according to the Box) after his rookie season and then slipped off the top thirty lists entirley after that.  He got his first taste of high A in 2010 but managed to 'hit' only a buck thirty-eight in 58 ABs.  2011 saw him hit .201 in 164 ABs, sending him back to Lansing to start 2012.  41 steals and a .360 OBP got him promoted back to Dunedin where he's been raking in 85 ABs. 

Given the comments above about his injuries and his abandoning switch hitting, plus his still young aqe, I'd say he's a top thirty prospect again.