Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Fresh Thread for Detroit Series

I confess I didn't see any of last night's game, but it sounded slow and painful for fans of the blue team. Eight walks and zero strikeouts for Romero? How is that even possible?

Anyway, just figured we could use a new big-league thread. Here it is.

Posted by Alex Obal on Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 02:47 AM EDT.

Fresh Thread for Detroit Series | 79 comments | Create New Account

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wdc - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 07:06 AM EDT (#262533) #

Watching Romero is getting very difficult. How much longer does a team keep running him out to pitch? What are the options? The bullpen? I feel for him but it is also very painful for us as fans. The problems seem to be mental ones to some degree. I am just puzzled about what comes next.

Mike D - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#262536) #

With apologies for being a Negative Nancy, the season has been calamitous. As Mike Green has pointed out, the team is in a much worse position this offseason -- 14 serious, well-beyond-15-days injuries (plus D'Arnaud) will really limit the team's trade options. For each and every one of these injured players, there are questions about whether they can regain their pre-injury form and whether they can be traded for full value with massive injury questions.

For example, these percentages (reflecting my judgment) are much higher now than I would have dreamed when, say, the 2011 Winter Meetings were happening. And I'm craving good news, so if anyone takes issue with these percentages, let me know.

85% chance the Jays won't sign any free agent to a contract making more than $5M/year.
80% chance Adeiny Hechavarria will be overmatched by big league pitching in 2013. (The number is probably 85-90% for Gose, but I don't think anyone was counting on Gose for 2013.)
70% chance Deck McGuire will never be a meaningful MLB player.
65% chance Brett Lawrie won't be healthy or offensively developed enough to put up an OPS over .850.
60% chance the 2013 Orioles will finish ahead of the 2013 Jays.
50% chance Henderson Alvarez won't be a part of a healthy 2013 rotation.
40% chance Ricky Romero has permanent Blass/Ankiel issues.

I would have called each of these statements lunatic ramblings last November, especially if you added all the news of Tommy John surgeries and the fact that Snider, Thames and four top 20 prospects are all out the door with no core players coming back (unless Happ's Friday start was a sign of things to come).

The only truly positive unexpected developments are Encarnacion's season + extension, and Boston's collapse, although Boston's top prospects have generally had superb minor league seasons.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#262537) #

Romero's control difficulties have not been uniform. Some games he just hasn't had it. If I were Farrell and he issued his 3rd walk before the 5th inning, I would have the bullpen up and I would take him out if he had issued 4 walks before the end of the 5th inning. It is one thing to let him pitch out of trouble, but in a season where he has had episodic horrific control, you do want to manage it a bit.

I do think that the club should keep sending him out there.

Mike D - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#262538) #

To clarify, my Lawrie prediction pertains to 2013 only.

Oceanbound - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#262539) #

I'd be ecstatic if Lawrie hit for an .850 OPS. Three qualified 3B have reached that mark this season.

Mike D - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#262540) #

Oceanbound, in absolute terms that's true. But he put up a .953 in 171 at-bats after his 2011 callup. I honestly thought he could be a generational offensive player at 3B, and maybe he still can be. But it's no longer appropriate, as it was in April, to compare him with the likes of Trout.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#262541) #

Lawrie will be fine. Nothing that happened this season has changed my opinion about his future, both short-term and long-term. After age 22, George Brett had a career line of .291/.329/.408 with an OPS+ of 106. Mike Schmidt wasn't even close to that. Ron Santo was at .254/.327/.415 for an OPS+ of 97 (after a very good age 21 season and a poorer age 22, much like Lawrie but at a lower level).

It's a great time to sign him up.

Mike D - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#262542) #

Mike G, I totally agree that he's still promising and should be locked up. But to anyone who's truly not disappointed by his offensive performance this season relative to pre-season expectations, especially his decline in isolated power, I salute your steely-eyed realism.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#262543) #

How bad is Ricky's year? All stats pre last night's horrid game (8 walks, 0 K's, 5 ER in 5 1/3 IP).

Worst in BB/9: 4.8 vs worst of 4.0 as a rookie
Worst in SO/9: 6.3 vs worst of 7.1 twice
Worst in HR/9: 1.1 vs worst of 1.0 last year
2nd worst in H/9: 9.0 vs worst of 9.7 as a rookie and 8.1/7.0 his other seasons
Worst in ERA+: 79 vs worst of 103 as a rookie
Has allowed most earned runs in AL - 92

Ugh. He looked to be getting better with a solid 3 game stretch (3.15 ERA) but he still walked 9 in 20 IP which is higher than desired. Then he allowed 6 runs last time and 5 in last nights horrid game.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#262544) #

Of course, I am disappointed by Lawrie's offensive season but I am equally pleased with his defensive season.

I guess that when I look at the offence as a whole, at least pre-deadline, I thought that one would have to be pleased. Encarnacion and Rasmus improved, Snider was looking good, Bautista and Arencibia had consolidated, Johnson had been all right, Escobar and Lawrie had regressed. The way I saw it was that as a whole it was typical seasonal variation with the result being the best (or close to it) offence in the league.

I did not understand the Snider trade then, and I still don't get it. The club has unnecessarily created a hole for itself. When Anthopoulos says that he will be focusing only on acquiring starting pitching for 2013, I shake my head.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#262546) #

I think the FO likes the fact that they have one of the best base stealers in baseball patrolling LF.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#262547) #

Basically the Jays lineup is 2 elite bats (Joey + EE) and 7 average bats. Well, 6 average bats with one usually average bat turning in a truly horrific season (Escobar). Most of those average bats are also young players with upside to be much better than that.

Elite:

1B Encarnacion: 157wRC+
RF Bautista: 141wRC+

Good:

none

Mediocre:

DH Cooper: 110wRC+
LF Davis: 101wRC+
3B Lawrie: 100wRC+
C Arencibia: 97wRC+
CF Rasmus: 96wRC+
2B Johnson: 91wRC+

Bad:

none

Awful:

SS Escobar: 68wRC+

2 elite bats + a whole bunch of mediocre bats with few true "holes" in the lineup should always give you one of the better offenses in baseball, IMO. The fact that most of those mediocre bats are guys in their first or second seasons means there's more upside there to tap, as well.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#262549) #

We talk a lot about potential pitching acquisitions but you could argue that having a top-notch pitching coach is equally important (a la Dave Duncan, Mike Maddux or Don Cooper). Of course, the Jays have two pitching coaches on hand in Farrell and Walton. I wonder how much of the team's pitching woes is attributable to the coaching (or lack thereof) that the pitchers are receiving.

There are some success stories (Morrow, Janssen, Villanueva, Perez, Loup), along with the struggling pitchers (Romero, Alvarez, Drabek, Cecil) and slew of injuries. It's hard to know what to make of it all.

jgadfly - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#262550) #

After Jose Bautista's early season's hitting woes waiting for that one pitching mistake to hit a homerun and now Ricky Romero's attempts to be overly fine (worrying about an eighth of an inch difference in location) to avoid the opposition hitting a homerun, I'd be sending a memo to the Jays' advertising firm to stop "messin' with the heads" of the Jays multi-million dollar duo. Afterall, Tiger Woods isn't doing commercials about choking on putts or Martin Brodeur on allowing goals through the five hole ...

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#262551) #

MLB Trade Rumors has Joe Saunders on trade waivers and D-Backs seeking Shortstop in offseason. No, I'm not suggesting anything, just pointing out opportunities.

Saunders is only 6-10, 4.22 ERA through 21 starts. At a glance, he's pitching better than his 6-10 record shows. Through 11 good starts (2 ER or less), Team record is only 5-6: poor offense being the culprit (6 starts), but a Bullpen failure once. Through 4 bad starts (5 ER or more), Team record is as expected 0-4: his pitching sucked. However there are 6 relatively decents starts (4 with 3 ER and 2 with 4 ER) that deserves better than than it's 2-4 Team record indicates: poor offense being the culprit once again (3 starts), with another Bullpen failure . He's a Free Agent this Offseason.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#262554) #

Lawrie has two main problems: telling someone he's hurt and staying healthy enough to play 130 games a year (preferably much more).

JB21 - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#262561) #

Bartolo Colon suspended 50 games.

I'm assuming he took the subsense but then forgot to workout?

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#262562) #

The Bartolo Colon Workout....what a concept. Anyways, this story lays waste to the idea of a typical PED user body.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#262563) #

So the Bay area seems to be Ground Zero, even now.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#262565) #

MLB will be mandating name changes to the Oakland Couch Potatoes and the San Francisco Cabells.

JB21 - Wednesday, August 22 2012 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#262567) #

I guess you could say that Colby is in a slump.

TamRa - Thursday, August 23 2012 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#262568) #

0 for 27 certainly qualifies!

Super Bluto - Thursday, August 23 2012 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#262575) #

colby's slump has echoes of last year's, doesn't it? He came to toronto, wasn't great, but then got hurt and upon returning was terrible. I don't know if this is encouraging or not.

Moe - Thursday, August 23 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#262578) #

Sorry for the off-topic post but I have a question for those of you who go the games every now and then.

I'll be in Toronto for Labor Day weekend and was hoping to make to a game. Back in the mid and late 2000s, when I was living in Toronto, there were always plenty of private ticket sales on ebay and craigslist. Now, these sites seem to be 100% professional and prices well above face value. I realize Labor Day weekend is more popular than Wed evening in May (even though back then it meant Halladay vs Buehrle or some other fine matchup) but nevertheless, there has to be some private selling going on. So here is my question: what happened to that market? Is there some website I don't know off?

Thanks!

JB21 - Thursday, August 23 2012 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#262579) #

You can likely get scalpers tickets for quite a bit cheaper than the box office. I've also had success with Stubhub as there's generally some tickets on there that you can tell somebody is just trying to get anything for.

Jonny German - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#262587) #

Try kijiji.ca

Mike Green - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#262588) #

Yesterday's game had one important piece of good news. Happ looks to have a decent chance to be a pitcher who you can slot into the 2013 rotation and throw 180 at least serviceable innings. The club certainly needs those. At this point, the realistic rotation possibilities are Morrow, Romero, Alvarez, Happ, Villanueva (if signed), Laffey and Cecil. I think that they need one additional starter (in addition to Villanueva).

Thomas - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#262591) #

I agree. And that additional starter needs to be able to slot into the front or middle of the rotation. Laffey, for example, has given some indication he could be an acceptable piece at the back end, but signing another Laffey-like pitcher to a minor league contract isn't fufilling that additional starter hole. I hope the Jays do acquire one or two arms in that vein, but they need one more pitcher who is closer to Morrow-old Romero than Laffey and Cecil.

John Northey - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#262592) #

The big trick is to find a team that is cost cutting this winter that has an ace and wants young talent to rebuild. Philly seems the logical spot to look as they have 1 player under 29 with over 100 PA (Freddy Galvis with a 63 OPS+ at 2B). They have 3 starting pitchers under 29 so that means Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee could be available. Given Halladay's injuries this year he'd be cheaper than when sent away plus he has just 1 year fully guaranteed left plus an option year (vested with certain number of IP). Of course, he also might not be the ace of old too. I still dream of getting Felix from Seattle but they seem determined to keep him (understandable). Not much question a trade would be easier than free agency when it comes to getting an ace, but it is like comparing running a 25 mile marathon to a 30 mile - both are hard.

Mike Green - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#262593) #

It's true. The Phillies and Jays are natural trading partners. The Jays sent $6 million with Doc when he left; I wonder if they would take him back if the Phillies returned the money! I can't say that hope springs eternal when it comes to Rogers' willingness to take on salary.

China fan - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#262594) #

".... I think that they need one additional starter (in addition to Villanueva)...."

Actually the Jays need 2 additional starters, because of the possibility that Romero and Alvarez might not improve much from their 2012 seasons. And therein is the challenge and frustration of the 2013 rotation. How do you build a rotation without knowing if Romero will rebound? He should rebound, but it might be foolhardy to assume it. He is such a drastically different pitcher from 2011 to 2012 that the Jays honestly don't have a clue about which version will materialize next season. They'll try to get an answer to that question over the next few weeks, but nobody really knows.

Similarly, the Jays can't be sure whether Alvarez will need further development in the minors, or whether he can be a stable member of the rotation. And it would be risky to enter 2013 without a back-up plan for the rotation. They absolutely cannot allow themselves to keep trotting out Romero and Alvarez for another entire season if they fail to improve.

Honestly, the only reliable members of the rotation might be Morrow, Villanueva and Happ. And in the case of the latter two, we're still projecting from a relatively small sample size, which might be risky too.

I think Anthopolous has to acquire two starters: one who is capable of being a top-of-the-rotation starter, and another in the mold of Happ or Villanueva, who at least can hold down a bottom-of-the-rotation slot reliably. A surplus of starters would not actually be a problem, especially with the virtual certainty of injuries.

China fan - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#262595) #

And yes, I don't see Cecil or Laffey as answers for the rotation. Their role can't be more than 6th or 7th starter, on the Buffalo roster, awaiting the call in case of injuries.

greenfrog - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#262596) #

I think Anthopolous has to acquire two starters: one who is capable of being a top-of-the-rotation starter, and another in the mold of Happ or Villanueva

I basically agree with this, although it's not easy to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter (a controllable one especially). The Jays would certainly have to give up Sanchez or Syndergaard, plus two or three other good prospects. Even another arm like Happ won't come cheaply, as he (and Lyon and Carpenter) essentially cost Musgrove, Woj, Perez, Rollins and Comer (I still like the trade, though).

I think Cecil and Laffey have to slot in at #7 and 8 or below. If they are the Jays' #6 and 7 starters in 2013, I think the team is courting disaster again.

China fan - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#262597) #

I know there are some Bauxites who regard Paul Beeston as an out-and-out liar and dissembler, but I've still never seen him make such an explicit promise as he did last night -- a clear and explicit promise to acquire players aggressively by trade and free agency. And this provides us with, at a minimum, a public benchmark to measure the Jays against in the future, and a standard for the fans to apply to put pressure on the Jays to do more. Here are his comments from last night:

"We are at a point right now where we have got to make a move," he said. "We've got to be aggressive. We have got to put ourselves in a position to have a chance for next year. I think we have to be in the trade market and free agent market."

Also this:

"Alex (Anthopoulos) has done a great job building up the farm system, Beeston said. "The future, I'd like to think, is now. We've got to get ready this year and get ready for next year too. We now have to put the Blue Jays -- for their fans and for the team itself -- I think, we got to show them we're committed to winning and this off-season, it's going to be very important for us to go out and be aggressive and improve the team and give us a chance to win."

Mike Green - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#262598) #

Here were BBRef's comps for Brett Cecil at the beginning of the year. In 2012, he has pitched well in the minor leagues, and in 55 IP in the majors posted a 5.72 ERA, with a 5.46 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP. There is no reason to believe that he cannot do as well as the BBRef comps Neal Heaton or Kyle Lohse or Ricky Bones (leaving aside the Gio Gonzalez, Chris Carpenter, Gil Meche, Derek Holland and Jonathan Niese comparisons as not really being accurate). He is a perfectly good option to fill out the #5-#6 slot. It is the earlier slots that are more problematic.

TamRa - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#262599) #

is it possible that the tailspin this year has served as an eye-opener to Beeston? that he might have been imagining a relatively smooth assent in which they could get away with living on the margins in the run-up - and now significant injuries have demonstrated the risk involved in that?

For me personally, i'm not crushed by this season - it's not that difficult to assume that without the injuries things would have been at least mildly encouraging. Some points fell below my expectations (obviously no one can be happy about Romero for instance) but on the whole, I'm philosophical about almost everything.

the one thing that grinds my gears, perhaps irrationally so, is that while the jays seem to be getting every concievable setback in what was a relatively well laid plan, the Orioles are contending with a wildly improbable set of events. Why dont those years ever happen in Toronto?

(also, it sort of bothers me that I've always thought Davy Johnson would be the ideal hire and there he is, having great success again in Washington)

Mike Green - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#262600) #

A la prochaine, Jesse Chavez.

BlueJayWay - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#262601) #

the one thing that grinds my gears, perhaps irrationally so, is that while the jays seem to be getting every concievable setback in what was a relatively well laid plan, the Orioles are contending with a wildly improbable set of events. Why dont those years ever happen in Toronto?

Totally. I think any Jays team of the last 5 years is better than Baltimore this year. No way that teams contends unless every planet aligns, and somehow every planet is aligning. They're getting all the luck the Jays don't.

Dewey - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#262602) #

" . . . such an explicit promise as [Beeston made] last night"

I didn't see/hear this, CF. Where did he say these things, and to whom?

Paul D - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#262603) #

Looks like there's a good chance Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto are traded to the Dodgers.

BlueJayWay - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#262604) #

Boston just moved some unmoveable salary there.

Thomas - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#262605) #

If this trade goes down, it will be the craziest waiver deal in history.

grjas - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#262606) #

is it possible that the tailspin this year has served as an eye-opener to Beeston?

Yeah i agree. I think beeston wanted a 1982/83 type team before he went after a doyle alexander (god i'm old..). But this isn't an 82 type team and with bautista getting older and the fans getting restless there's little option.

This fan would be happy seeing even a few meaningful games in sept much less a playoff. Been a hell of a long time. And like Bautista, i'm not getting any younger.

grjas - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#262607) #

greenfrog - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#262609) #

Frankly, I don't much like the sound of Beeston pushing for more aggressive trade and FA moves. It reminds me a bit too much of Peter Angelos and/or Godfrey/Ricciardi and the Wells, Rios, Burnett and Ryan contracts.

I think the Jays need to continue looking for opportunities to improve the team, but they need to do it intelligently (as AA has done to date). AA once said (I think), you can't force contention. But it sounds as though Beeston wants to do exactly that. I hope AA at least chases only the players he and his scouts truly believe in, and not dole out the big dollars and years to some "proven starter" like John Lackey or "proven bat" like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.

Magpie - Friday, August 24 2012 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#262611) #

he went after a doyle alexander

The Jays didn't exactly go after Doyle Alexander; they picked him up off the scrap heap. Te Yankees had signed him as a free agent, been hugely disappointed, and simply gave him his outright release. Toronto scooped him up (with the Yankees paying all his salary but the MLB minimum.) Alexander actually lost his first six decisions as a Jay before getting himself sorted out.

John Northey - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#262612) #

The big moves back in the mid-80's were for relievers actually. First Dennis Lamp (free agent), then the big trade for Bill Caudill and another for Gary Lavelle as a free agent.

What is funny is that the winter of 84/85 they actually got some more important guys like Manny Lee (SS for the 92 WS team), Tom Filer (7-0 as a starter in '85), and of course Tom Henke (free agent compensation for losing Cliff Johnson).

TamRa - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 03:17 AM EDT (#262613) #

I think the Jays need to continue looking for opportunities to improve the team, but they need to do it intelligently (as AA has done to date). AA once said (I think), you can't force contention. But it sounds as though Beeston wants to do exactly that. I hope AA at least chases only the players he and his scouts truly believe in, and not dole out the big dollars and years to some "proven starter" like John Lackey or "proven bat" like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.

That's been my argument all along. I wasn't saying last winter "don't spend" - i was all about Darvish (and he's not lived up to my expectations) - it's just that MOST free agents simply are not worth it.

Same for the upcoming winter - if Beeston intends to open up the wallet I'd prefer taking on quality guys in deals, even at the cost of some prospects, as throwing big money at average guys. The list of players that we here, I dare say better informed fans than most, have wanted to spend on, and griped when we didn't, has not turned out to be an illustrious group on the whole.

Like you, I hope the utmost caution is exercised when signing any very expensvie free agents.

(also worth noting, in some cases the available crop is depressing - second base for instance)

Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#262615) #

Listening to Beeston (with credit to DJF):

�We went into the 2012 season expecting that we could really make a move, and the way it�s gone, this was a year for us to actually make that move,�... �But we had the injuries.�... �That�s not an excuse, because a lot of teams have injuries. If we sit back and say we�re the only team with injuries� you know, we�re not. A lot of teams have had them....�But, you know, our pitching has been OK,�... �been the hitting at the present time� we don�t seem to be able to score runs, and it�s made it difficult. But we will gut it out.�...

�but the future, I like to think is now.�...�I think that we�re at a point right now where we�ve got to make a move... which means that I think we have to be either in the trade market or the free agent market.�...�The rebuild and the infrastructure is now completed... �we�ve got to show them that we�re committed to winning... this off-season is gonna be one of those off-seasons where it�s gonna be very important for us to go out and be aggressive and to improve the team and give us a chance to win.�...

�I will say this: it�s not going down,�...�The degree it goes up will be dependent on what is available and what we�re able to achieve. I don�t think there�s anybody in the organization, including the ownership, that doesn�t think that we should be taking it to the next level... that doesn�t mean that we�re not going to go out and try to get the best players, so that we give ourselves a chance. We think that we�re close right now.�...The building of the minor leagues and putting ourselves in a position for the future, all of that has been put in place... �It�s now time to return something to a) those people who�ve supported us, and b) the players themselves.�

Then reading this (credit to MLB T.R.):

Red Sox, Dodgers Nearing Blockbuster

I can believe New York (with it's problems) and Tampa Bay (with it's problems) might just be our only competition for a Postseason berth. If A.A. can make the Right moves, we are there. This Offseason will be the watershed in A.A.'s career. He needs: 1) Front-line Starter, 2) Mid-rotation Starter, 3) Re-signing of Free Agents?, 4) 2B acquisition decision, 5) and the LF, DH, Bullpen decisions.

I consider 1) Front-line Starter to be A.A.'s critical decision. If he can't do this, I vote he should be replaced. I feel comfortable with: Acquisition, Morrow, Romero, Acquisition, Happ or another as our Postseason Starters - You only need two Good ones, the other three just get you there. Design this Team as a Postseason team, with two Top Starters (dominant pitchers), three Top Relievers (dominant, dependable pitchers) and five Top Hitters (consistent performers). Everyone else just gets you there.

ogator - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#262616) #

I am very confused. What I hear people saying and what I see with my eyes seem to be from different universes. This team looks like one of the worst in baseball, not close to being one of the best. They don't score runs, the prospects do not look as if they are almost ready to contribute and any future plan that sees Ricky Romero as a key component of the rotation is either wishful thinking or is based on something invisible to the eye. Who exactly is in this rotation that just needs a starter or two? Brandon Morrow has a rotation spot locked up. Happ has had a couple of good starts so maybe he will contribute or maybe not. And then what? I think "the plan" has completely unraveled in front of our eyes. Rogers is cheap, people are gullible and the only thing that makes this team close is hope.

Thomas - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#262617) #

If this blockbuster goes down as rumoured, I think the Red Sox are probably in a weaker position for 2013, but have a good chance to be stronger in 2014 onwards.

John Northey - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#262618) #

That is an amazing trade.

Adrian Gonzalez = great 1B on an off year at age 30 $21 mil a year for 6 more years
Josh Beckett = 2nd bad year out of 3 (ERA+ of 85) age 32, just shy of $16 mil a year for 2 more years
Carl Crawford = DL until next year, 104 OPS+ was acceptable but not what he is paid for, age 30 season $20+ mil a year for 5 more years

So 3 very expensive guys 30+ years old cleared out thus freeing $50+ million a year for the Sox over the next 2 years and $40+ a year for the 3 years after that. Gonzalez is likely to bounce back, the other two not so sure. I think the Sox did addition by subtraction without even getting into the guys they get back.

JB21 - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#262619) #

Baltimore's pythagorean theorem record is exactly the opposite of their actual record. Based on their RF/RA and should be 57-68. The Jays? 59-66.

Not that I want to make the playoffs on pure luck, but I echo the comments posted yesterday, eventually we have to get a break.

greenfrog - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#262620) #

Beeston's comments imply that the players the Jays need will be available for the taking this off-season. He seems to suggest that all the Jays need to do is go out and get them. I don't think it's so simple.

In both the free agent and trade markets, you can win big (Kuroda, Jackson, Gio, Latos, Nathan, Beltran, Buehrle, Ross, Willingham) and lose big (Pineda, Montero, Madson, Oswalt, Bell, Francisco). Trades don't just happen - they have to be engineered by two (or more) teams who see eye to eye, and the timing has to be right. FA signings require an agreement on the part of both player and team - it's not like going to a supermarket and adding Nathan or Jackson or Fielder to your cart.

In any event, AA needs to make the right move based on *his* judgement, not that of Beeston or Rogers or Bautista. AA has always touted the team's long-term interests. I would hate to see him sell out now to give the fans a frisson in next year's wild card race.

greenfrog - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#262622) #

it's just that MOST free agents simply are not worth it

I agree, but there were some interesting low-cost opportunities last winter (Kuroda, Jackson, Nathan, Beltran, Willingham). The argument that it's either stick with the rebuilding plan or chase expensive FAs is something of a false choice. Some teams have benefitted greatly from the low-cost options. You could argue that without Kuroda (3.3 WAR) and Pettitte (1.4 WAR), the Yankees would currently be fighting for a playoff spot instead of sitting pretty in first place (albeit with the Rays hot on their heels).

I expect much more interest in these types of players this off-season as teams cotton on to their potential value and limited risk.

Parker - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#262623) #

My impression was that the Jays were already being pretty aggressive with trades; whether or not those trades pay off is another story entirely.

TamRa - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#262624) #

just looking at the FA list and trying to develop some enthusiasum...and mostly failing.

there's Ortiz, little argument there.

there's Hamilton if you want to risk the inevitable missed time, and can convince him to play on turf given his health.

Beyond that it looks like role players and stop-gaps among the hitters. i wouldn't mind bringing back Scutaro for a lot less than Johnson will probably want. Maybe Macir Izturus? There's not really a FA 2B that answers any questions.

Among the SP, the guys i at least looked twice at:

Grienke - will ant more than 5 years
Colby Lewis - not sure how serious the current injury is?
McCarthy, Harden, Bedard - suddenly gambling on health seems less appealing
Kuroda - no reason to assume he would leave NY
Jackson - could do a lot worse
Liriano - I like him as the second best pitching acquisition, might be a bit short to be the best.
Marcum - again, health?
Peavy - if you feel safe this is not a "contract year" abberation.
Anibal Sanchez - probably the team who sings him will overpay.
Shields - won't be declined, might be traded but not to us - would take a 3-way sneak attack which requires a lot of moving parts.

That's not a real long list and it is fraught with uncertainty. of course there are always trades but you get even more speculative when you start talking trades.

TamRa - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#262625) #

You could argue that without Kuroda (3.3 WAR) and Pettitte (1.4 WAR), the Yankees would currently be fighting for a playoff spot instead of sitting pretty in first place (albeit with the Rays hot on their heels).

Well yeah, but Petitte was never going anywhere else anyway so he's not really relevant to the discussion.

scottt - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#262626) #

I haven't seen anyone pitch better with JPA on the DL.
I don't know if that's good or bad news, but that's certainly a significant piece of data.

dan gordon - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#262627) #

Watching the Giants game this afternoon, and heard Tim McCarver make an interesting observation about the Boston/LA trade. McCarver was a major league catcher for 20 years, retiring in 1979. He was a pretty good player, putting up a career batting average of .271, but without a lot of power, played in a couple of all-star games. He observed that Nick Punto, who is a backup infielder, makes more money this season than McCarver made for his entire mlb career. In fact, Punto's salary this year is more than 50% higher than McCarver's career earnings.

Parker - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#262628) #

Sure. A McDonald's cheeseburger used to cost five cents and you could buy a house in a nice neighbourhood for $35,000.

I am assuming McCarver wasn't adjusting for inflation when making this comparison. Seems more like a "kids these days" comment than actual analysis.

scottt - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#262629) #

Punto makes 1 million and a half.

Yes, it's more than 50 grand a year, but I don't think it's excessive.

Hodgie - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#262630) #

Before writing off the oft puzzling McCarver perhaps one should actually look at inflation figures for the last 30+ years and consider the collusion that ball players worked against during his career. The average baseball salary has thus far out-stripped inflation by an order of magnitude from 1980 (his last year in MLB) to the present day. I also realize that his best days were far in the rear-view mirror at that point but the sentiment is valid none-the-less.

electric carrot - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#262631) #

I agree with Hodgie. Sure it's not a fair comparison. He didn't do all the math live on the air to make it completely fair. But he doesn't have to. The ratio of Punto to McCarver is outrageously wrong even with 1000% inflation.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#262634) #

With Bautista re-injuring his left wrist and Morrow not stretched out yet, this season is a wrap. The actual standings will determine whether we have a protected pick, or not.

While there may not be a 'Latos' or a 'Gonzales' available this off season, A.A.'s people know who's the best and might be available. He just has to make the deal. With d"Arnaud (C), Hechavarria (SS), Gose (OF), Alvarez (RHP) being young, MLB-ready (not much else at AAA) and available to go with prospects (many) in any Trade he makes, it all depends on another's need(s) to make it work.

While Beeston spoke against 10+ year contracts, he stayed away from mentioning 6-9 year deals. This was very deliberate by him not to handcuff A.A. in any way (Lawrie). Perhaps word from on high said 6-9s are OK? This season has been discussed in detail, even with the MLSE purchase finalized, and pre-approval was considered, but ????? if given?

Zach Greinke (10/21/83) can pitch here, and is worth acquiring (5-7 years/ ? options), perhaps the only Front-line Starter available. Brandon McCarthy (07/07/83) should not be expensive. He's well thought of, when people talk about him, and would make a nice Mid-rotation acquisition. Isn't Edwin Jackson (09/09/83) a Boras client? I don't know how A.A. likes dealing with him. Francisco Liriano (10/26/83), Zach Duke 04/19/83) and Jonathan Sanchez (11/19/82) are the available LHP, but not very good. Everyone else is older, injury-risk, or not that good.

I just wonder if Boston's dumping any more "problems", because Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and a reliever or two are worth acquiring if they are?

Petey Baseball - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#262635) #

He got hit hard by the re-vamped Dodgers today, but Josh Johnson absolutely should be at the top of off-season list for A.A.

Oceanbound - Saturday, August 25 2012 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#262636) #

You can't just look at player salaries in isolation, baseball teams are making way, way more money now than they did 30 years ago. If players aren't making that money, it's just going straight into the owners' pockets.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#262637) #

Looking at Josh Johnson's http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml stats, he's very good, on a not so good team, with major Injury loss time. He's an expiring contract in 2013, (which might gain a draft pick if he won't re-sign) making his cost higher than he might be worth. It all depends on values and costs, money's not a consideration. A.A. may be interested.

scottt - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#262646) #

Ortiz?

Being on a 1 year 14 million contract, he probably gets a qualifying offer. He'll be 37. Risks include injuries (done for the year?), declining years, and 50 game suspension (as always looked like an artificial,).

We went through that with the Big Hurt without losing a pick.

greenfrog - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#262656) #

Well yeah, but Petitte was never going anywhere else anyway so he's not really relevant to the discussion

It's true that Pettitte was never going to pitch for anyone other than New York, but the larger point is that the Yankees have significantly improved their pitching in each of the last couple years with inexpensive FA options. Yes, they spent a lot to extend CC. But they also received excellent value from Colon (2.9 WAR in 2011), Garcia (2.2 WAR in 2011), Pettitte (1.4 WAR in 2012) and Kuroda (3.4 WAR in 2012 so far) - per fangraphs.

Meanwhile, the Jays have received the following from their bottom-rotation internal options:

- Cecil: 0.4 WAR (2011), 0.0 WAR (2012)
- Drabek: -0.2 WAR (2011), -0.2 WAR (2011)
- Jo-Jo Reyes: -0.7 WAR (2011 BRef)
- Brad Mills: -0.1 WAR (2011)
- Laffey: 0.0 WAR (2012)
- Chavez: -0.2 WAR (2012)
- Hutchison: 0.6 WAR (2012)

Basically, over the last couple of years, Brian Cashman found a useful inefficiency (aided by his exclusive arrangement with Pettitte) - relatively cheap but valuable veteran starting pitching. Mike Rizzo did the same with Edwin Jackson. Meanwhile, the Jays essentially said, "give us Latos or Gio, but we're not interested in any lesser arms." Obviously, this strategy has not worked out.

TamRa - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#262673) #

Colon and Garcia kind of harken back to the previous comments about Baltimore.

On opening day 2011, pretty much every observer who commented on the Yankees said something like "they might manage to get some mediocre stopgap work out of one of those flyers."

what they got was entierly and completely upredictable, and pretty much exactly the same thing as if we'd have gotten 15 wins and a 3.50 ERA out of Aaron laffey.

Kuroda seems to have been kind of fixated on pitching for the Yankees too.

the league is littered with cases of teams signing a middling guy and astonishingly finding a gem (note the recent events in the Tampa Bullpen with guys like Farnsworth)

All that can really be said is that we haven't gotten that lucky yet.

Oddly, I'd give the Yankees a lot more credit for getting Pineda than for getting, say, Colon, and that move DIDN'T pay immediate dividends.

I'll congratulate anyone on good process, but not so much on blind luck, mixed with trading on the "everyone wants to be a Yankee" meme.

greenfrog - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#262677) #

No doubt there was luck involved, but we don't know how much was involved with Colon, Garcia, Pettitte and Kuroda. Probably a combination of luck and skill in evaluation (coupled with the player's geographical preference).

One difference between the players you mentioned is track record. Career fangraphs WAR:

- Colon: 42
- Garcia: 34.6
- Pettitte: 68.4
- Kuroda: 15.6 (in about 4.5 seasons)
- Jackson: 15.9

Here is the career WAR for the veteran SPs and internal options used by the Jays:

- Laffey: 3.3
- Reyes: 0.4
- Chavez: -1.4

You can argue that track record is meaningless once a player gets old enough (the Yankees group are all in the 35-40 range), but I'm not sure you can say that Laffey was just as likely as those four to have a 2-3 WAR season. Clearly the Yankees have been going after low-cost veteran SPs with a lot of experience whom they think might have enough in the tank to contribute.

The Jays have eschewed this route, opting instead to try to extract value from internal options (Drabek, Cecil, McGowan, Mills, Hutchison), filler (Laffey, arguably), and low-probability flyers (Reyes and Chavez).

Ryan Day - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#262678) #

Bartolo Colon isn't a great example, either. We don't know when he started taking PEDs, but the Yankees are surely counting themselves lucky he signed with someone else before getting caught.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#262681) #

For fair comparisons give us a 'CC Sabathia equivalent' on our staff.

greenfrog - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#262682) #

I think Colon is a perfectly good example. The Yankees scouted him, determined that he still had fuel in the tank, and signed him to a minor-league deal for $900K in January 2011. He did a great job that year. Just because it turned out halfway through 2012 that he's been taking testosterone doesn't mean that NY didn't do a good job in identifying someone who could contribute to the team. There is no suggestion that they did so in bad faith, i.e., with the suspicion that he might be on PEDs. Value is value, even if it looks questionable in retrospect.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 26 2012 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#262684) #

...Value is value, even if it looks questionable in retrospect.

Agreed.

vw_fan17 - Monday, August 27 2012 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#262711) #

Just as a single data point (sss warning). Cost of a new base Corvette started at around $4600 in 1968, when McCarver (seemingly a decent player) made $60K. Said Corvette today starts at $50K. So, roughly 10-11x inflation. Gas has probably also gone up 10x easily, it not more.

So, his $60K in 1968 would equate to AT LEAST $600-700K today. Say half of what Mr. Punto makes.

Taking another data point: MLB minimum salary was set at $12K in 1970 - Mr. McCarver made roughly 5-6x minimum salary. Today, it's at $480K. Take 5-6x, that's $2.5M-3M - maybe 2x of what Punto is making.

So, with a very, VERY rough translation, McCarver's salary has a range of something like 0.5P to 2.0P (P = Punto). Overall, not THAT far off, IMHO

Hodgie - Monday, August 27 2012 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#262718) #

Not sure how Corvettes were dragged into a discussion about Tim McCarver and MLB salaries but lets try this instead. The actual point I was attempting to make was that using inflation to criticize McCarver was silly since there was little correlation between MLB salaries and inflation over that time. Owner collusion had almost everything to do with the discrepancies in comparable earnings and I don't blame McCarver one bit for making the comparison. Instead of cars or average yearly inflation, consider these numbers instead (numbers are approximate values):

1970: US average wage $8000, MLB average wage $29,000
2012: US average wage $46,000, MLB average wage $3,400,000

Again, not a perfect comparison by any means but I find it difficult to argue with a straight face that ball players of that era were compensated even remotely as well as today's players.

Paul D - Monday, August 27 2012 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#262719) #

Again, not a perfect comparison by any means but I find it difficult to argue with a straight face that ball players of that era were compensated even remotely as well as today's players. I don't think anyone's arguing that.

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