This totally aligns with my opinion that Yunel has flat out sucked at the plate this year, and shouldn't be batting any higher than 8th - except for the lack of viable 4th-7th batters.
Sadly, this condition has been met.

Oswalt is replacing Dempster, unavailable for personal reasons. It's being reported that he doesn't have a passport.

Tonight, Happ pitched like a guy who was worth the prospect package the Jays gave Houston. Edwin's bomb and Gose's triple were great, but maybe the best part of the game for me was the way Farrell managed the top of the 8th. Lyon gets the righthanded Andrus, bring in Loup for lefty Hamilton and then Lincoln for righties Beltre and Young.

Ya'know, if Esco can't be counted on for better than this, you might as well see if someone else is willing to gamble on him enough to give you a quality return and just go with Hech. The latter isn't ready obviously but if you aren't getting any help there anyway.

Of course, that begs the question whether the return would be somthing helpful or not....

Maybe you get the Giants to give you Belt for him ;)
 

This totally aligns with my opinion that Yunel has flat out sucked at the plate this year

No doubt about that. On the other hand, his BABiP this season is .265; last year it was .316, his career figure is .307. His line drive pct is the same as last season. There's a pretty good chance that many of his problems this season are based on Random Bad Luck (which has probably gotten into his head a little, and he's become much more impatient at the plate.)

Oakland was ( and probably still is ) interested by Escobar, but they probably don't have anything to offer besides prospects.

The rest of the schedule is perfect for evaluating players, if nothing else.

I'd certainly take the gamble on Villanueva. Alvarez could provide depth by working on his secondary stuff in the minors and all the Jays need is an ace.

To get Escobar, A.A. wants a Starter. The better the Starter, the better the package.

Brett Lawrie is playing for the GCL Jays today.

Lawrie was pulled after two innings. I am not sure if he is playing for Dunedin tonight too.

Villanueva is still being babied by the Jays -- pulled after 86 pitches today, even though he had allowed only 4 hits in 6.1 innings. I guess the Jays are still worried that he could suffer a recurrence of last year's fatigue-related injury if he throws more than 86 pitches. That might be true, but how long will this continue? He's been one of the most reliable pitchers on the Jays this year, and Anthopoulos is presumably negotiating a multi-year contract with the guy right now. How can they assess his future potential as a starter if he is perennially limited to 86 pitches? Is he doomed to a future as a long-reliever, swingman and spot starter? What does he have to do, if anything, to warrant 100 or 110 pitches?

In other news: Gose stole his 10th major-league base today, after 72 at-bats, and he's only been caught stealing twice. Pro-rated to a full season, that's close to 80 stolen bases, which would be the most that anyone's stolen since the days of Ricky Henderson and Vince Coleman. It's still not clear if he can hit, but he can certainly steal.

I wonder if they won't stretch Vllianueva up towards 100 IP in September after the options are more varied (and after Morrow is back in harness?

Also, at what point does Jenkins force himself into serious consideration for the 2013 roster? And does his future lie in the rotation or the bullpen?

With all the prospects that are currently on the major-league team, is Anthopoulos trying to save himself some money by figuring out which prospects could be legitimate starters in 2013? How many games do you need to give a Cooper or Sierra or Gose or Jenkins before deciding that you don't need to fill their spot with a free agent or trade? Or are they best used as trading chips? The decisions won't be easy, and it won't be an easy off-season for Anthopoulos, even if he'd like to focus exclusively on the rotation.

Listening to Sam Cosentino describe baseball plays is epically funny. Doesn't quite understand baseball that one. Fair play to Ashby though in not calling him out and simply moving on to a new topic.

It was uncomfortable to listen to today, no disrespect to Sam, but he shouldn't be doing MLB play by play. He mentioned that Michael Young came up as a 2B but moved over to SS b/c Kinsler came up. He didn't mention anything about moving to short b/c the best offensive SS in MLB history (if he stayed) was acquired, which is a pretty big detail to leave out.

A scout's take on Hechavarria, from the "Scouts' Views" section of John Perrotto's On The Beat column on Baseball Prospectus:

"They're playing him out of position right now at third base, but he's going to be a heckuva shortstop once Yunel Escobar is gone at the end of this year. The kid can really play defense. He's got the range, the feet, the hands, and the arm, and he's got a little more pop in his bat than you think."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18036

Encouraging stuff. It's just too bad Escobar is having such a lousy season, which has doubtless reduced his trade value significantly.

"once Yunel Escobar is gone at the end of this year."

Doesn't know the contract situation, or assuming we'll move him?

The all time single season stolen base records are funny.

Top 25
1880's: 10
1980's: 7
1890's: 6 (last 1895)
Others: 2 (1974, 1962)

Clearly there were 2 periods when stolen bases went nuts, then you have the oddities of Lou Brock (74) and Maury Wills (1962). #26 is Ty Cobb in 1915.

If you push to #50 you just get another Wills ('65), Clyde Milan (1912) and a batch of the two 80's and 1890's. That covers everyone who stole 84 or more all-time. For 80+ stolen bases you also get Willie Wilson in 1979 and a couple more early 1910's.

Jose Reyes' 78 in 2007 is the highest since the 1980's (tied with Marquis Grissom in 92 for the Expos).

Of the top 500 all-time (524 due to ties) counting all with 49 or more stolen bases you get...
1890's: 113 (different rules than now)
1880's: 99 (different rules than now)
1980's: 62
1970's: 53
1990's: 53
---big drop---
1910's: 39
2000's: 32
1960's: 22
1900's: 21
---big drop---
1920's: 7
2010's: 6 (so far)
1940's: 4
1930's: 2
1950's: 1

Cut to 70 or more...
1880's: 40
1890's: 31
1980's: 25
1970's: 10
1910's: 9
1990's: 8
All others: 8 combined, none for the 20's/30's/40's/50's/2010's.

No one has reached 40 yet this season so I don't see any 70+ happening this year despite Davis' best efforts (#2 in MLB with 37, one behind Trout, 21 makes the top 10).

I loved the 80's with the stolen bases going wild (Raines, Henderson, Coleman especially). Just more fun to watch. Hopefully it does make a comeback, here in Toronto at the least with Davis & Gose.

Hopefully it does make a comeback, here in Toronto at the least with Davis & Gose.

Just try to restrain yourself from taking the bat out of the hands of your best hitter with the tying run on third base. It's pretty unlikely they'd give Encarnacion the IBB (and move the go-ahead run into scoring position) if Davis had stayed on first.

When our pitchers are "on their game", I don't seem to notice many HR being given up. When they are not quite "on their game" I notice HRs as problems. Is there that much of a difference?

I trade d'Arnaud before next season before he's exposed as not that good. He's still a work in progress behind the plate. So far in AAA, he's Arencibia-lite at the plate. He's still a Top Stud Prospect until next season. While I fully expect him to spend next year in AAA, I don't have confidence in his getting better nor in his staying healthy.

I'd like to keep Sierra, should Bautista return before September. Gose is a "game-changer" who needs to hit much better and walk more if he's our CF and lead-off hitter going forward. Let's find out just how good Sierra can become before we annoit Gose as the next best thing.

John, Billy Hamilton has 142 stolen bases this season. If he sticks in the majors, he's going to be absolutely insane to watch.

what were the different rules that permitted so many SBs in the 1880s and 90s? Catcher had to throw with glove hand?

So far in AAA, he's Arencibia-lite at the plate.

Holy crap. You have got to be kidding. This year D'Arnaud, aged 23, hit .333/.380/.595 at Las Vegas. This was his first taste of AAA. Arencibia also had his first crack at AAA in Las Vegas at age 23, and he hit .236/.284/.444.

In what universe does that make d'Arnaud Arencibia-lite? Sheesh.

FINALLY, we get to find out which universe Richard is from. Thanks.

As I recall they often counted taking an extra base (1st to 3rd on a single, 1st to home on a double, 2nd to home on a single) as a stolen base. If you did that now I'd imagine totals would be crazy (imagine Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman with that rule).

As to Billy Hamilton ... wow - 143 now vs 33 caught stealing. His OPS finally climbed up to 840 (315/411/429 overall) and he is now in AA at 21 hitting 295/406/403. He strikes out way too much for a guy with his raw speed (100 K's in 547 PA) but it is an improvement.

Who knows, maybe he can be like the Billy Hamilton who is in the HOF - 4 times stealing 100 bases in the 1880's/1890's (no caught stealing data for that era) although I somehow doubt he'd have the 141 OPS+ lifetime. Probably more likely to be like Vince Coleman - 83 OPS+ but 3 times over 100 SB, led league 5 times before going to the Mets and becoming a part time player outside of 1994 in KC (of all years when everyone maxed on in the low 100's for games played). In the minors he peaked with 145 SB vs 31 CS in a year he hit 350/431/399 in A ball, lifetime 701 OPS in minors.

As I recall they often counted taking an extra base (1st to 3rd on a single, 1st to home on a double, 2nd to home on a single) as a stolen base.

That's correct. The narrower modern definition of the stolen base dates from 1898. That year average stolen bases dropped all the way to 172 per team. In previous seasons, with all the extra bases included in the count, it had been well over 200 per team.

Doesn't know the contract situation, or assuming we'll move him?

It's not clear exactly what the scout means. There are a few comments following the article speculating that the implication is that Escobar is likely to be traded this off-season, giving that he's useful trade chip and Hechavarria may be ready to take over at SS.

Escobar is likely to be traded this off-season

I'm not wild about that idea. He gets little credit for it, but Escobar is one of the best defensive players in the majors. It's likely that Hechevarria or anyone else who replaces him will be a defensive downgrade. And there are good reasons to believe that Escobar's troubles with the bat this season are mostly a fluke, random bad luck singling him out for attention.

But if that's the price it takes to get a real starting pitcher... you gotta do what you gotta do.

John has me contemplating the history of the stolen base! Once the current definition was settled on, stolen bases per team soon stabilized in the range of 170 per season. There was a brief uptick around 1910, which I find interesting - that was the first lively ball era (they actually introduced a new, livelier baseball.) Offense went through the roof, albeit briefly, and stolen bases went up with it. Presumably this was because there were so many more people on base, and back then if you had people on base they were trying to steal. John McGraw's Giants stole more than 300 bases in both 1911 and 1912, a figure that's been matched exactly once in the hundred years since.

The new offensive era was quickly short-circuited (mainly by pitchers defacing the baseball at every opportunity) and stolen bases per team started dropping rather quickly. In 1921, average SB per team fell below 100 for the first time ever. And they continued to drop - by the 1930s, average SB per team ranged from 55 to 68. In the 1940s, they fell below 50 per team for the first time (the 1940s ranged from 46 to 63). The 1950s were the great Leadfoot Era of the game. Only twice did the average team steal as many as 50 bases, and the average sunk as low as 42 per team.

They started coming back, slowly, in the 1960s. This of course was the modern Deadball Era (it wasn't the baseball, it was the strike zone). SB per team had risen to 77 by the end of the decade. And in the 1970s, they came back in force. In 1974, average per team cleared 100 for the first time in half a century, reaching 127 in 1976. This, I think, was mainly the work of two men: Whitey Herzog and Chuck Tanner. Tanner's 1976 Oakland team stole 341 bases; that's the only team to steal 300 bases in the last 100 years.

Anyway, SB per team stayed in triple digits for the next quarter century (peaking at 138 per team in 1987, the greatest hitters year of the period). They started falling again in response to the offensive explosion of the 1990s, and fell back below 100 per team in 2000. As we leave that era behind, the SB is starting to return - last year the team average was back over 100 (at 109) for the first time since 2001, and it should be about the same this year.

Holy crap. You have got to be kidding. This year D'Arnaud, aged 23, hit .333/.380/.595 at Las Vegas. This was his first taste of AAA. Arencibia also had his first crack at AAA in Las Vegas at age 23, and he hit .236/.284/.444.

This exact point was made to Richard about a month ago. Some opinions are unchangeable, regardless of statistics or facts to the contrary.

Not sure who is tweeting on behalf of Batter's Box, but whomever it is, they are very agitated that Mathis is playing at DH and Kelly Johnson is not. However, the explanation is simply that KJ is injured. Farrell announced before the game that Johnson has a hamstring problem, and that's why Hechavarria is at 2B today. I don't think there's any chance that Farrell sees Mathis as a better hitter than Johnson (although this season Mathis actually has an OPS almost as high as KJ's).

Rasmus's Slash Line By Month:

August 2011 - .236/.253/.444
September 2011 - .089/.128/.156
April 2012 - .232/.281/.427
May 2012 - .237/.317/.430
June 2012 - .291/.331/.547
July 2012 - .191/.284/.372
August 2012 - .250/.283/.409

Jays fans like to point out how AA needs to address 2B/LF/DH/Starting Pitching in the off-season, I think it's fair to say the CF position might also need to be addressed.

On a unrelated note, if you need a new poll question, ask the BB readers if John Farrell deserves an extension this off-season. His contract expires after next season.

It's easy to forget that JP's age 23 season in the minors was marred by an eye problem which wasn't corrected until the following year when he had laser eye surgery and then posted drastically different numbers. No one can argue definitively that his numbers the second time through the league were a result of one over the other (laser eye surgery vs getting used to pitchers in the league.)

In any case, AA needs to face reality IF he plans to have a team that wins the division either soon or in the future. IF he wants to win now or next year then he needs to collect proven starting pitching, a DH, outfielder and 2B. In other words, SPENDING. If he decides not to and wait for the 'elite' prospects to reach the majors in 2014 and beyond then he needs to trade away Bautista for position players. He's being wasted right now. At the end of the day this team is currently in last place and I agree with an earlier poster that the injuries this year mask what very well may have been the undoing of a lucky team facing an easy schedule in the first half before turning the page to a tough schedule about to catch up to them. Right now I don't see the Jays going in either direction (winning now or saving for the future).

Baltimore is killing it right now and they don't even have their best prospects up yet (though they're ready). That's an example of a team getting the most out of the season. The Jays? They're so focused on beefing up the stats of players before trading them that they dig themselves a hole (i.e. Cordero, Rivera, Patterson, et all).

At some point you need to be honest with yourself and ask what you want. I don't think AA has done this. Unless he truly thinks he can have his cake and eat it too, which is something I personally think is a false ideal.

You can't model yourself after the Rays/Athletics (great pitching, no big contracts, excellent picks/prospects) AND the Yankees and other higher budget teams (signing Bautista to extension, looking to trade for elite proven talent by giving up the very prospects that make you like Oak and TB).

"Baltimore is killing it right now and they don't even have their best prospects up yet (though they're ready). That's an example of a team getting the most out of the season."

It is actually an example of one of the luckier seasons in recent memory, right there with the 2009 Seattle Mariners. Baltimore is currently 10 games up on Pythagoras and sports a record of 23-6 in one run games. As for their top prospects, they only have two of note and one is already up with the team. Not exactly the model of success one can emulate - just ask Jack Zduriencik.

Brandon Morrow started today for New Hampshire and will be coming off the DL next weekend. I don't think he will replace Ricky Romero, JA Happ or Carlos Villanueva so that leaves Aaron Laffey or Henderson Alvarez. After today I wouldn't be surprised if it was Alvarez. A stint in the bullpen with some more shorter outings might help him.

Seems virtually certain now that the Jays will get Buffalo as their AAA affiliate, replacing Las Vegas. Here is the latest report: http://t.co/kSwRldB8

The money saved on Mike McCoy's airfare will be enough to pay for a new starting pitcher.

That's awesome.  Buffalo would be great.

If Toronto does pick up Buffalo, it would be a major coup. Once the injuries hit in full force and the Vegas roster was stripped absolutely bare of prospects, I remember hearing of complaints from the Vegas folks. Anthopoulos did a great job in picking up decent AAA guys like O'Sullivan, Cust, Hughes and Gosewich (and especially Sean Hill, though that was earlier). The Vegas team is very much still in the playoff hunt and is arguably playing as well as any team in the PCL right now. I don't think the fact the Jays are very much showing they care about their AAA team is lost on the Buffalo ownership.

Once Arencibia could see, his numbers made him MVP. d'Arnaud, so far, not so much. And d'Arnaud gets to repeat AAA.

Anthony Gose, Travis d'Arnaud and Adeiny Hechavarria are our Top MLB-ready Prospects. At least one of these three are gone if A.A. gets the Starter he needs. Syndergaard, Nicolino and Sanchez are much too far away to have Top value, but at least one of the three are also gone.

I would extend Farrell for the express purpose of keeping him away from Boston. Much too much talk about replacing their latest adventure in Managing with Farrell, as if it's a done deal.

A.A.'s only focus this offseason is Starting Pitching, one, two or three. Once that's done, he'll look at any other holes he might need to fill.

Magpie - wow, forgot about the A's of '76. Interesting team.

3 guys over 50 SB including Don Baylor - yes, the one who was well known as a DH and getting hit by pitch and later was a manager of the Rockies and Cubs. 3 more were over 30, with 2 more over 20. 8 guys total over 20 SB...wow. 2 were 'designated runners' who had a total of 34 PA between them (Matt Alexander & Larry Lintz). The 2 previous seasons they had Herb Washington - a track star who was a pure pinch runner - never had a PA as a pro (never played in the minors), never played the field, scored 33 runs in 105 games with 31 SB vs 17 CS.

I have to admit I haven't watched much of the Blue Jays the past month or so.  At this point however (and yes I know this has been said), the concern over the holes in the field are magnified greatly by the fact that we've had terrible luck with injuries and therefore, our pitching has been pretty much terrible. Like Magpie, I'm not so keen on rushing to deal Yunel Escobar. His career numbers suggest a resurgence at the plate, and he's still a damn good defensive shortstop. And I'm fine with sticking with Rasmus for another season; I think he will hit 30 HR a few times in his career if he stays in a homer-friendly ballpark like the Rogers Centre, and he will be just 26 next season. Then, there's his outstanding defense.

Add two capable starting pitchers to what we have and hope for the best. I'm hoping a trade for one (package of prospects), and a financial commitment of four or five years to someone like Zack Greinke or Brandon McCarthy will fill up the gap. Wishful thinking; it will be first time A.A. will face any sort of real pressure to have a headline filled off-season, especially given the Darvish/Fielder debate of last winter.

I would be thrilled if the Blue Jays decided to move Hech to 2nd base for '13. The defense alone would be a huge improvement over Kelly Johnson, and really.....could he hit much worse than KJ has since mid-May?

I can relate to the pessimism, but I cannot really understand it. While things seem sour because finally the team was in place to play "meaningful baseball" in August and September this year, I don't feel as frustrated as I have in late-seasons past. Injuries clearly killed our chances this season, and there is really no one who can be blamed. Had the Jays signed Edwin Jackson, we still would probably be on just the fringes of the race.

With the cupboard seemingly stocked with talented prospects, and revenue streams up through attendance and merchandise sales, I think this is going to be one exciting off-season for us. 

And no, I don't work for Rogers and I'm not Mike Wilner.

Obviously the Jays will keep Escobar if they anticipate that he'll bounce back to his 2011 numbers, when his OPS was .782. But let's face it, his numbers have been far worse than that for 2 of the past 3 years. In fact his combined OPS for 2010 and 2012 is around .640. Anthopoulos has to recognize the definite possibility that this is the new normal for Escobar as he turns 30 and enters his likely decline years.

Isn't there a decent chance that Hechavarria can manage an OPS of around .640 in the majors? His OPS in 600 plate appearances at Las Vegas has been .823. If he can manage to get within 180 points of his Las Vegas OPS, he becomes as good a hitter as Escobar this year.

If this is the case, then Anthopoulos has a dilemma: he has 2 shortstops, both of whom are defensively excellent, both of whom are likely to achieve an OPS of (let's say) around .640 in 2013. (This is debatable, of course, but I'm just presenting it as a quite possible scenario.) If that happens, he has two very similar shortstops, but one of them is much younger and cheaper. And they both have trade value. And neither of them is really a good enough hitter for 2B, unless you think Anthopoulos cannot possibly find a 2B who can hit better than .640. (And I think he can.) So, if that's the case, the logical outcome is to trade Escobar and acquire a 2B on the open market. Otherwise you've got two similar shortstops, both with similar talents, and you can't play both of them.

Of course there's a risk that Hechavarria never reaches an OPS of .640. There's also a risk that Escobar gets injured or continues to deteriorate, rather than bouncing back to 2011 as some people assume. But if you need to trade someone in a package for a good starting pitcher, and if you've got two shortstops with potentially similar futures, it might be logical to trade one of the shortstops.

By the way, I'm not suggesting that an OPS of .640 is the maximum that the Jays can get from their shortstop, whomever it is. Nor am I suggesting that it's completely acceptable. But if the rest of the lineup is reasonably strong, the Jays can hide a shortstop with a .640 OPS in the 9th spot in the lineup and not worry about it. And there's a decent chance that Escobar or Hechavarria, whomever it is, can achieve an OPS of well over .700 in the future. Maybe it's Escobar who has a better chance of achieving that, based on past history. But if you're a highly skeptical realist, you might acknowledge that .640 is a quite possible outcome for 2013, and then you decide whether you need two shortstops who are both quite capable of that number.

Escobar is a very interesting case.  He has a base of good plate control.  When he hits the ball in the air, he hits a decent number out of the park and on average a long way out of the park.  But, he hits the ball on the ground a lot and this year, his plate control has deteriorated some.

Despite his struggles in 2010 and 2012, I think that he has a decent chance to be a more effective hitter in his early 30s than he was at the beginning of his career.  We will see if he can make the adaptation to take better advantage of his considerable power.

Once Arencibia could see, his numbers made him MVP. d'Arnaud, so far, not so much. And d'Arnaud gets to repeat AAA.

I'm sure Arencibia getting his eyes fixed help. It meant that his second crack at AAA (.301/.359/.626), at age 24, was almost as good as what a 23 year old d'Arnaud has done in his first try at it (.333/.380/.595). How such a thing makes d'Arnaud into Arencibia-lite requires a form of reasoning with which I am not familiar.

I would extend Farrell for the express purpose of keeping him away from Boston. Much too much talk about replacing their latest adventure in Managing with Farrell, as if it's a done deal.

I don't understand this. If he's not an effective enough manager to be extended on merit, what's the point of keeping him away from the Red Sox?

Let Boston have him and his inexplicable decision-making. Red Sox fans would be burning Ben Cherington in effigy.

But if the rest of the lineup is reasonably strong, the Jays can hide a shortstop with a .640 OPS in the 9th spot in the lineup and not worry about it.

This is the perennial theory. It's easy to pencil in a guy as the no-hit/good-field player in the lineup. The problem is that typically other hitters have off-years, get injured, etc., so that the lineup has more than one weak link (as has been the case this year). Once you have three or four weak links, the lineup gets exposed. I still think that apart from EE and Bautista, the Jays' offense has an OBP problem.

Jose Bautista is DH'ing for the GCL Jays today.  Brett Lawrie is not in the lineup, the Jays might have decided to just call him up.

Apparently the Jays pulled Lawrie out of Saturday's GCL game due to field conditions.  With JBau playing today, only one DH position available, and Dunedin off today, I think they just held Lawrie out of the lineup.

Any reason to keep Hechavarria over Escobar is a reason why other teams would value him more in trade for a starting pitcher. The Jays are far better off keeping both, even if they can get Johnson back on a reasonable 1 year deal with an option, or something of that ilk. Depth helps.

AL SSs are hitting better than AL 2Bs this year, so I wouldn't say either hits enough for one positon but not the other.

Article looking at how the Kuroda and Jackson signings have worked out:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kuroda-jackson-one-year-contract-wonders/

Kuroda is currently 16th in fangraphs WAR (3.3) among pitchers across both leagues. That ranks him just behind CC Sabathia and Adam Wainwright, ties him with Cole Hamels and Jordan Zimmerman, and just ahead of Cain, Bumgarner and Harrison. Yeah, I'd say he was worth the 1/$10M contract the Yankees gave him.

I have been a bit out of the loop with Jays-related info this past little while, but from what I can gather Anthopoulos spoke to the media a week or two ago and was quoted as saying the offense and bullpen were "championship calibre," while the rotation had a ways to go and because of the cost certainties created through trades in the bullpen and offense, Anthopoulos indicated that he could concentrate almost exclusively this offseason on improving the rotation either through trade or free agency. On free agency, my understanding from his comments, Anthopoulos merely stated that as a result of the acquisitions at the deadline for those bullpen pieces, those free agent dollars good potentially be re-routed to the rotation.

Am I right in saying this?

I know Anthopoulos said other things, such as any trade propositions or ideas looked to add to the current group at the ML level and not prospects, but the media seems to have really latched on to Anthopoulos' comments on free agency and the rotation. Anthopoulos' comments to me do not suggest that the Jays will be "players" for the top few free agent starters on the market this off season. Signing a Greinke or Dempster will likely take a commitment both in term and salary that far exceeds what Beeston and Anthopoulos have explicitly and consistently sought to avoid. This, however, has not prevented media types from drawing up a list of free agent starters available this off season for the picking.

I ask, are people that myopic that they have forgotten last offseason and the dollars, Marlins or not, that were being shelled out? Mark Buehrle got $58 million dollars over four years and if my memory serves me correct, that was neither the highest offer in term or dollar value offered to him. That is not to say that Buehrle was not deserving of that commitment, he was after all, 32 and coming off a solid, if not spectacular season, and his eleventh straight season of 200 innings. But do you honestly see the Jays making a $50 million plus commitment to someone who in an ideal world might slot in the two or three spot of our rotation? Does such a financial commitment fit within A.A.'s "parameters?" It appears in many respects that fans are being set up, just like last offseason, for a serious let down. The expectation, I would contend, is starting to ferment that come the winter meetings the Jays will be competitive bidders on a number of free agent starters.

With that being said, there are a few starters who I think would be more than ideal for the Jays. Rotation experience, veteran savvy, or whatever you may call it is severely lacking of the current group. Perhaps one of the more disappointing aspects of Ricky Romero's season thus far is he seemingly has lost much of his competitive or winning nature on the mound. Shutdown innings--innings after your team scores--is not a stat I believe recorded, yet it is a very important indicator of a good pitcher. Subjectively here, It just seems Romero has lost that ability to get guys out in important situations. Tantrums and his body language during games has been poor and defeatist during the season. I simply question his leadership ability. Someone like Jake Peavy I feel would be a more than ideal fit for the Jays. Peavy has pitched well against the Jays this year and has a $22 million option with the White Sox next year. He appears healthy again and capable of getting hitters out with his surgically repaired shoulder. Should he hit the open market, from a baseball perspective he appears to possess many of the qualities this rotation lacks--veteran presence, front-end ability, and AL experience. Dan Haren is another one to look out for, however, he is throwing less and less fastballs and more and more breaking balls and those guys do tend to break down or statistically fall off sooner than guys who throw fastballs at a higher rate.

I still believe that the Jays might best explore adding a starter via the trade route. Someone like Jeff Samardzija is putting up impressive numbers this season and clearly on the upswing. He has three years of control too after this season. Max Scherzer is another power-type, front-end potential guy who perhaps gives up more hits than his stuff warrants. He too, in my estimation, would be a good acquisition to the group of guys currently populating the Jays pitching depth chart. His availability, however, could hinge upon the possible re-signing of Anibal Sanchez.

In short, it would appear fans are being set up much like last offseason for the Jays to be "in" on a number of the top free agents this offseason. I don't see it and would caution any Jays fan from even considering such a proposition.

Article looking at how the Kuroda and Jackson signings have worked out:

Some people have speculated that it would have been hard to get Jackson to sign in Toronto because a pitcher looking to rebuild his value wouldn't want to come to the AL East. That explanation has never been persuasive to me, because we're at a stage where teams with relatively weak or non-statistically inclined front offices can do basic adjustments to compare someone pitching in the AL East to someone in the NL Central. Anyhow, although he's facing Toronto's offence instead of New York's (which is a big difference), Kuroda shows you can have a strong year in the AL East, regardless.

Now, that's not to say that Jackson may not have had other reasons to not sign in Toronto, but I am of the opinion Toronto should have gone much harder after him (although that point has been debated to death). I don't have the same thoughts about Kuroda, as all the reports suggested he wanted to stay out west, but would consider New York. I don't believe he would have come to Toronto.

Just was looking at the standings and saw the Jays are now tied with the Phillies in the standings. Something we'd all have gone 'woohoo' to if we were told this in the offseason (Jays & Phillies tied in late August) but instead it is a 'boohoo'.

463 winning percentage = Jays & Phillies
Teams with worse record = 3 in AL, 6 in NL including pre-season contenders Miami and Milwaukee. That puts the Jays in a top 10 draft position (#10 or #11 depending). However, given Bautista, Morrow, and Lawrie should all be here for September I'm sure that will change significantly. There are 3 other teams sub-500 (Red Sox, Seattle, Mets) with the Angels & Diamondback in striking distance (less than 6 ahead).

The playoffs now are a distant dream - 10 games out of the 2nd wildcard which Baltimore currently holds with Oakland 1/2 a game behind and Detroit 2 back (cheering on Oakland myself).

Last offseason Buehrle was 32, with a career ERA+ of 120 in 2477 IP.

As of today:

Jake Peavy, age 31, career ERA+ 117 in 1749 IP.

Dan Haren, age 31, career ERA+ 115 in 1829 IP.

I'd take Buehrle, thank you very much.

MLBTR had a brief thing mentioning the potential of the Met's moving Santana and eating some cash to do it. If you were looking to add a veteran Ace-type to the team, AND you believed he would recover his previous form (at a glance, looks like he's done fine except giving up a lot more homers) then that might be worth say 15 mil next year and the same on the option year (no idea if the Mets would eat that much money, particularly on the option year)

There's not really a lot of premium level pitching available unless you want to go past Beeston's five-year limit which I've seen nothing to indicate they will (Grienke, for instance, isn't going to sign for five or less)

Stat from ESPN's Baseball Today podcast:  Yunel Escobar is second in the major leagues in 2012 in making an out to the shortstop.  Most of these would be ground balls.  Derek Jeter is number 1.

Maybe people have been talking about this, but I have missed it.  Derek Jeter has the weirdest batted ball profile for a 38 year old I have ever seen.  He is, of course, significantly slower than he was in his prime.  Nonetheless, he is putting the ball on the ground more than ever, a whopping 65.5% of balls in play.  He is walking less than ever.  This would normally be a recipe for a total disaster.

So, how has he managed it?  He is striking out less than at any time in his career.  He is hitting a few more line drives, and when he does hit a fly ball, he is squaring them all up.  He has, according to fangraphs, the highest HR/FB rate of his career while not hitting a pop-up all season.  He is doing all of his damage on fastballs.  So, if you're pitching to Jeter, give him junk that moves down.  With Roger Clemens attempting a comeback, I wonder what Tommy John might be thinking....

I think the problem with the dearth of premium FA pitching is not so much that the Jays are unlikely to acquire any (they almost certainly aren't going to spend that much); rather, the problem is the trickle-down effect. Teams are going to overbid for both premium and mid-range FA pitching as a result. They will probably also be required to give up a lot of young talent for this year's versions of Latos, Gio, Cahill, etc.

In any event, would you really want the Jays to give Greinke $150M+ after the way he's pitched for LAA (ERA+ 62)? You might be running the risk of a colossal FA failure along the lines of Lackey and Crawford.

Now there is a question... if you were AA and Clemens agent said 'give him a look in spring' and assuming he shows well in his one game in indy ball, would you give him that shot?  At the very least he'd be a lesson in determination for the kids - how often would they get to see a guy with 350 wins at age 50 trying a comeback?

Of course, given the injuries on the staff... maybe Clemens as a September call-up.