Yet again, his team's pitchers have a significantly better ERA with Mathis (4.30) than with the other guy (4.70).  No doubt it's a fluke, but this fluke has been running for six straight years.

Is it possible that Mathis's superiority in controlling the running game accounts for this entire difference?  Maybe even more than this entire difference?

I heard AA say that he would rather have too many good players than not enough regarding the catchers.

Setting aside the semantic issue of whether Mathis and Torrealba qualify as good players, presumably this remark was made with the understanding that catchers are highly prone to injury and replacements are necessary to have on hand.

Does it mean that you have to trade your excess good players.

Excess good players inevitably get traded to patch problems in other areas. It's the rare team that is so good that it can afford to carry high caliber players whose sole role is to serve as a backup.

Are there any backups in the majors who need to be "freed" and given starting jobs? I'm not saying that there aren't any, but no names spring to mind.

Is it possible that Mathis's superiority in controlling the running game accounts for this entire difference?  Maybe even more than this entire difference?

If we walk through this mathematically, it would seem difficult to ascribe a 0.4 runs/game saving entirely to Matthis, let alone specifically to his arm (and not his pitch blocking, pitch framing, pitch calling, etc.)

162 games x 0.4 runs = 64 runs = 6 wins

If Matthis's true ability were such that he alone saved 0.4 runs per game as compared to Arencibia, that would mean that his defense would be worth 6 wins per year more than Arencibia's (on a 162-game basis). That 6 wins is a huge gap right there, and far more than seems reasonable on its face. And to take this one step further and attribute the entirety of that gap to Matthis' arm alone, well, that seems even more implausible.

Fangraphs, thus far, has Yadier Molina as the best defensive catcher (10 DRS, defensive runs saved) and a few tied for worst at -8 (including Mauer!). That spread is 18 runs, or about 2 wins. Prorate this for a whole season and the spread from best to worst is about 3 wins. That 3-win spread is half the theoretical 6-win spread between Arencibia and Matthis, further casting doubt on the accuracy of that 6-win gap.

Looking at the SB/CS figures, taken from Fangraphs, we see:
Arencibia  36-19 or 0.50-0.27 per 9 innings
Matthis     22-14 or 0.55-0.35 per 9 innings

Per 9 innings then, Matthis yields 0.05 more stolen bases but logs 0.08 more caught stealings. Applying linear weights of 0.2 for SB and -0.44 for CS, we get:
(0.05 x 0.2) + (0.08 x -0.44) = -0.025. So per 9 innings, Matthis' arm saves the team 0.025 runs as compared to Arencibia. That's one run every 40 games. Or 4 runs per season. Or less than half a win per season.


 

I think if you could do a lot worse than pencilling-in Villanueva into the #5 spot of the rotation for the next three years.

If you went with him and Alvarez at the back of the rotation, you'd just need to add someone like Annibal Sanchez to Morrow and Romero at the top of the rotation to patch something together.

Carlos Villanueva can be signed for Starter money over 3-5 years (Options).  He should be told he's a swing-man, basically the #6 Starter, in the pen.  

With Morrow, Romero and the one or two New Acquisition(s) being guaranteed Roster Spots, everyone else will have to fight hard to earn the last one or two spot(s) in the Rotation. 

With Sergio Santos (2013 spring training), Casey Janssen, Brad Lincoln, Steve Delabar as given in the Bullpen.  With Darren Oliver, deciding on retirement, Toronto will pick up his option if he will play.  The Jays are trying to re-sign Brandon Lyon ,if possible.  So chances are Toronto has one or two spots open in the bullpen.

With J.A. Happ, Henderson Alvarez and Carlos Villanueva competing for as few as two Pitching openings, this could get interesting.  Trades are still possible for Alvarez and/or Villanueva, if the deal is right.