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What's all this then? I go away for one freakin' day and all hell breaks loose?

 As you probably heard, last night the Blue Jays have traded OF Travis Snider to Pittsburgh for RHP Brad Lincoln. They then traded OF Eric Thames to Seattle for RHP Steve Delabar.


Which is one way to put an end to these guys competing with each other for the same job.

It also puts an end to the utterly inexplicable level of investment that had developed around Snider. It began on the day he was drafted - Ricciardi took a high school kid with a first round pick? He must be very special, surely?

It continued through his somewhat puzzling promotion to AAA in August 2008, and reached fever pitch with the utterly insane decision - one last desperate throw of the dice by a failing GM - to bring him to the majors in time for September 2008. Which, of course, is why he's out of options after this season.

Someday we'll look back on this and it will all seem funny.

Only one young hitter in franchise history had been pushed into the major leagues faster than Snider. That was Lloyd Moseby, of course. Moseby spent three full seasons being an absolutely terrible player on what was for the most part a pretty terrible team. That may have been why nobody cared too much at the time. All the same, it was dumb then, and it was dumb now. As is probably too well known around here, I jumped ship a long, long time ago on the Snider hype - I thought he looked a lot more like the next Glenallen Hill (but better, better) than the next Carlos Delgado - but I certainly think he can be a solid corner outfielder in the major leagues. It should be good for him to put Toronto, and all Toronto represents in terms of hope and expectation, behind him. And just get on with being a baseball player. He seems like a really likeable young man, and good luck to him.

Eric Thames was taken two years after Snider, out of Pepperdine in the 7th round of the 2008 draft. He was slowed by injuries in both 2008 and 2009. At that point, Snider (who's four months younger than Thames) had more at bats in the majors than Thames had as a pro. Thames was finally healthy in 2010 and put together an impressive season in AA. The next year, after a strong start in Vegas, he made it to the show and we all got to see him for ourselves. He's an adventure and a half in the outfield, although he certainly doesn't lack for hustle. On the plus side, he's a terrific baserunner, and I think he may hit enough to serve quite capably as a platoon left fielder.

Moises Sierra has been spotted on a flight to Seattle (courtesy of Eric Thames' twitter feed), and evidently Joel Carreno and Evan Crawford are being dispatched back to the minors.

So it looks like the next week or so will be an audition for Sierra and Gose to determine who gets to hang around when Jose Bautista returns from the DL.


Travis and Eric: Happy Trails | 103 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#261490) #
I guess this will have to qualify as a GBNF thread.  I wish Snider the best in Pittsburgh, a franchise that is surely on the rise (and lord knows that it has been long enough).  I will make sure to make a road trip there before too long.

I will most remember the long at-bat which ended in a homer and a wrist injury.  We will barbecue a steak in his honour for dinner tonight, if the weather co-operates to the slightest degree, but there will be no melted butter on the corn. 

dan gordon - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#261492) #

I still think the Jays made a mistake in trading Snider.  Yes, he has 1,000 career plate appearances in mlb and the numbers aren't great, but much of that was when he was rushed to the majors far before he was ready.  I think he has a few 30 HR seasons in him, and he has developed into a pretty good defensive left fielder.  He does seem to be quite injury prone, which detracts from his value somewhat.

Speaking of promoting people to the majors before they're ready, neither Gose nor Sierra is ready for the big leagues.  Hitting in the .290 range in Vegas indicates they are probably going to hit about .200 in the big leagues.  If AA thinks the team can have a shot at the post season this year, he needs to get an outfielder.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#261493) #
The most important thing I have learned is that I shouldn't buy Blue Jays t-shirts with players' names on them. I bought a Chris Carpenter shirt back in 2002, and then, expecting greatness, bought a Travis Snider shirt early in 2009.
LouisvilleJayFan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#261495) #
The most important thing I have learned is that I shouldn't buy Blue Jays t-shirts with players' names on them. I bought a Chris Carpenter shirt back in 2002, and then, expecting greatness, bought a Travis Snider shirt early in 2009.

You're telling me! I bought two jerseys from the Lansing Lugnuts charity auction back in 2008. One was Brad Mills and the other was Travis Snider. I was going to have one or both of them framed when they became established Jays...at least I'll save on the frames. I'll still follow and root for Snider, much in the same way I still follow Tim Collins.
fozzy - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#261496) #
So unless something eventful happens in the next 5 minutes, is this it? Reliever buy-a-thon 2012?
scottt - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#261498) #
I don't see Upton clearing waivers if that's what you're asking.
Parker - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#261506) #
This just plain sucks. In a way, I'm hoping that Anthopoulos was forced to make all these ridiculous bullpen acquisitions by ownership, the same way Ricciardi got a free pass on the Wells contract boondoggle, but in the end I guess it doesn't matter one way or the other. These awful trades still happened no matter who was responsible.

For a moment I thought I was overreacting because of my attachment to Snider and Thames, but these transactions seem to have the approval of the single-most ignorant Jays fan I've ever come across, so I am pretty confident in saying that the Jays will live to rue the day they made both these moves.
katman - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#261517) #
I start where Mike Green starts, when he says that "The slots after #4 in one's pen are not as important as your starting left-fielder."

I'm also with Mike in believing that relievers beyond Casey Janssen can be found at reasonable prices on the free agent market, though admittedly that hasn't worked out so great over the last few years.

The best case I can see is that AA says, "Look, we're stockpiling high-upside relief prospects. We don't know how or if Santos comes back, Perez won't be back in 2013, Casey has been seriously hurt before, and our system is thin. We have the offense, and if we need to add an average bat/glove in LF, we can do that. Proposed starter trade were too expensive, so we chose to do something about this, as a fix that goes beyond 2012 to 2013-14. "

It isn't a stirring case, but if the org. sees Snider as a god Lf defender with some power, low average, and lots of strikeouts, it may all be justifiable. If he outperforms that for any reason, we lose unless one of these guys ends up becoming a lights-out closer.
scottt - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#261518) #
If relievers #5-6-7 pitch when the team trails by one or two runs, having guys with ERAs around 2 or 3 instead of 6 or 8 makes a huge difference.

So, unless there is an all-star in left field, I'll have to disagree with the statement.

Having said that, I still like the team better with 4 left bats in the lineup, given that KJ and Rasmus have not been consistent.
Dewey - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#261519) #
People don’t go to the ballpark to see what the effing *bullpen* does.  They go to see what batters like Travis Snider do.  All I know is the evidence of my eyes and ears, that that short, sweet, seemingly effortless swing puts a charge into the ball that very few batters ever manage.  My affection for Snider goes back to that first series in NYC, when he put balls into the seats with it.   He was injured and mis-handled for much of his stay with the Jays.  I am saddened by this trade.

When Snider’s equal comes along, maybe I’ll get excited again.  Just sad now.

And we did get Jose from the Pirates, so I suppose it’s only fair they get Travis from us.
jjdynomite - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#261520) #
HUGE DEADLINE DAY TRADE FOR AA!
[well, huge for people who take pleasure in silly names]

Phillies continue their salary dumping ways by trading Tuffy Gosewich to the Jays
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/7221/tuffy-gosewisch

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#261521) #
All I know is the evidence of my eyes and ears, that that short, sweet, seemingly effortless swing puts a charge into the ball that very few batters ever manage.  My affection for Snider goes back to that first series in NYC, when he put balls into the seats with it.   He was injured and mis-handled for much of his stay with the Jays.  I am saddened by this trade.

I don't really want to bash Snider here,  but this kind of thinking is what leads to people overrating him.  It happens a lot in sports, where someone looks good while doing something, so we automatically equate that to the player doing something good.  You talk about that effortless swing that puts a charge into the ball, but Snider himself didn't actually do that often enough to make him a good hitter.

When Snider’s equal comes along, maybe I’ll get excited again.  Just sad now.

Well, right now Snider's equal is a LF who slashes 248/306/429, 95 OPS+.  All Snider is now is potential, still. 


Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#261522) #
They go to see what batters like Travis Snider do.

They really don't. Few people came to the park to see Carlos Delgado or Roger Clemens, and there hasn't been any sort of attendance increase associated with Jose Bautista being one of the best hitters on the planet. So it's probably safe to say most people won't miss a guy who hits a few nice home runs and surrounds them with a metric ton of strikeouts.
China fan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#261526) #
"....these transactions seem to have the approval of the single-most ignorant Jays fan I've ever come across...."

Okay, please end the suspense and tell us who this is! There is huge competition for the title of most-ignorant fan. If you've settled on a winner, please inform us immediately!

In the meantime, I can't say that I agree with the logic of your statement. The proper response to ignorant opinions is to set them aside and ignore them. If you automatically take the opposite opinion as anyone who is ignorant, you're giving far too much power to the ignorant. Don't let it influence you at all. Taking the opposite stance is not always the right response, because even a broken clock is accurate twice a day.

King Ryan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#261528) #
"Only one young hitter in franchise history had been pushed into the major leagues faster than Snider. That was Lloyd Moseby, of course."

John Olerud?
bpoz - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#261529) #
IMO our best relievers are still the same guys. Janssen, Oliver, Lyons & Fraser when healthy. Happ now has competition as to who is the next best. So I believe that #6 & #7 out of the pen have been improved.
Many of us believed that we were forced to give up on a game by using relievers that could not do the job when our SP blew up. These better arms changes that so we could now win some of those games.
The judgement IMO could be success if we finish August 6+ games over .500.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#261530) #
^^
Oh Lincoln is clearly better than Frasor and Lyon, he's just been doing it for a shorter time so the projectability at that level is uncertain

Still, whatever one thinks of the deal, his numbers in relief put him clearly in our top 3 this year if me maintains them.

Beyond that, my reaction overall is this:

the Thames deal really doesn't matter. I love Eric Thames but he was a marginal guy traded for a marginal guy (It also, by the way, indicates about what Cooper's value is)

The Snider deal is a pretty classic situation. Very often a trade involves selling off some upside potential for immediate reward (pretty much exactly what the Rasmus deal was). Emotionally, I don't like being on this end of that equation because I like dreaming about young players actually reaching their potential. but objectively, it's a pretty typical deal - send away the potential, gambling against the possibility the player might not reach it if you kept him  - and acquiring what you think is acceptable present value.

In my ill informed view, I'm not sure they got sufficent current value because I don't think there's massive difference between where Snider is now and where Rasmus was a year ago - albeit Rasmus had had the one really impressive season. So i wonder if a one-for-one deal was sufficent value. But i concede i might not know some relevant info about Snider's market value, or Lincolns.

In short, emotionally i don't like it, but more objectively, I can see an argument that it's more fair than my heart thinks it is.

Dewey - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#261531) #
Few people came to the park to see Carlos Delgado or Roger Clemens, and there hasn't been any sort of attendance increase associated with Jose Bautista being one of the best hitters on the planet. So it's probably safe to say most people won't miss a guy who hits a few nice home runs and surrounds them with a metric ton of strikeouts.

Impossible to say, really.  How do we know what attendance would have been *without* Carlos or Clemens or Bautista?  I went to see Carlos and Roger, many times.  Probably wouldn’t have gone if they weren’t playing.  Lawrie has certainly helped attendance this season.

What’s a metric ton of strikeouts? 
China fan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#261532) #
One explanation for AA's trading strategy is the high cost of starting pitchers. I suspect AA made an effort to acquire Matt Garza or Josh Johnson, but was deterred by the high cost, which would probably have required him to decimate the farm system and give up his best prospects or young hitters like Lawrie or Rasmus -- which obviously he was unwilling to do.

Instead of paying the high price for an established starter, Anthopoulos approached the problem from a different angle: the bullpen. By bolstering his bullpen, he made it easier for the Jays to win games with five-inning or six-inning starters such as Cecil, Laffey, Villanueva, Alvarez and even Romero these days. The stronger bullpen also makes it much easier for the Jays to insert J. A. Happ into the rotation, and much easier to keep Villanueva in the rotation in 2013 if he continues to perform well as a starter. So, indirectly, the strengthened bullpen has helped create 2 new starting options for 2013 (Happ and Villanueva) and will help the team to survive a short outing by Romero, Cecil, etc. All of this could contribute to team success in 2012 and 2013.

As for Snider: if you choose to dismiss his MLB statistics over the past four years, do you also want to dismiss the assessment of the Jays talent evaluators? The Jays have made it abundantly clear that they are doubtful of Snider's mechanics. They demoted him last year, they refused to give him a starting job in April, and they took their sweet time in promoting him this year. The Jays know Snider better than anyone, and they're clearly unimpressed. (Independent evaluators like Keith Law have also questioned Snider's mechanics this year, even after the latest attempt at a minor-league fix.) I think AA did well to trade Snider before he lost any more of his trade value.
Ryan C - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#261533) #
IMO our best relievers are still the same guys. Janssen, Oliver, Lyons & Fraser when healthy. Happ now has competition as to who is the next best.

I don't know about that.  With acknowledgement that it's only half a season's worth, Lincoln's numbers as a reliever are pretty outstanding.  I assume AA has done his homework and feels he is the real deal.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#261534) #
John Olerud?

I actually investigated this one. Moseby was first (by a mile), followed by Snider. Next up were Alex Gonzalez and Olerud, trailed (at a goodly distance) by Tony Fernandez.

My method, such as it was, consisted of asking first "How old is Travis Snider?" (at the time it was about 22 and a half) and then how many MLB plate appearances does he have, and how many did other young hitters have at the same age. So I would imagine Brett Lawrie's carving out a spot on that Top 10.
Ron - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#261535) #
Anytime you can trade away a 24 year old OF with a high upside for a 27 year old middle reliever, you have to pull the trigger .....

The Jays badly mishandled Snider. Rather than give him a full season to sink or swim at the major league level, they choose to bounce him up and down between the Minors and Majors even when he had nothing left to prove at the AAA level. Heck even a slumping Rajai Davis was blocking Snider for a period of time this season. AA traded him away while his value was at or close to rock bottom. I think this is going to turn out to be one of the worst trades in Blue Jays history.
Dewey - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#261536) #
I don't really want to bash Snider here,  but this kind of thinking is what leads to people overrating him.

Do you think people respond to sports by thinking?   Fans get excited, especially about some players.  Not all players, however, generate the sort of response that Snider did.

It happens a lot in sports, where someone looks good while doing something, so we automatically equate that to the player doing something good.

Speak for yourself, bjw.   (And the figures you cite below represent how many ML games exactly?)

When Snider’s equal comes along, maybe I’ll get excited again.  Just sad now.

Well, right now Snider's equal is a LF who slashes 248/306/429, 95 OPS+.  All Snider is now is potential, still.

 
  You just bashed Snider, right? 
Magpie - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#261537) #
And having taken a quick peek - Lawrie right now is the same age Snider was when I did that original essay. (I can't seem to do links in Chrome - the original piece was called "Bringing Up Babies" from August 2010.) A strange coincidence, anyway. Lawrie does indeed zoom past Gonzalez and Olerud, and has the third most MLB plate appearances for a player his age in team history, behind Moseby and Snider.

And the man I regard as the greatest hitter produced by the organization (the Crime Dog) had exactly 5 MLB at bats at the very same age.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#261538) #
What's a metric ton of strikeouts?

I don't know precisely how many, but it depends on leverage. E = mc^2, or so I'm told, so a strikeout's mass is directly proportional to its energy. When the crowd gets excited about a two-strike pitch, the resulting strikeout is bigger.
China fan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#261539) #
"....a 27 year old middle reliever...."

Let's start by getting the facts straight. Lincoln is not a middle reliever. On the Pirates, he actually was the set-up man. (And before this year, he was primarily a starter.) He's also clearly got potential to be a closer, based on this year's very strong numbers in late-inning and high-leverage situations. If you take away his games as a starter, Lincoln actually has an incredible 0.50 ERA as a reliever, with 40 strikeouts and only 8 walks in 35.2 innings. Doesn't sound like a middle reliever to me.

If you disagree with the trade, you're perfectly entitled to your opinion, but let's at least stick to the facts.
China fan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#261540) #
From today's conference call, here is Anthopoulos on Brad Lincoln and his late-inning role for the Jays:

"When we looked at him, the primary appeal was his ability to pitch late innings, power arm with swing-and-miss stuff. That’s really what he was acquired for.... He was acquired to fill a late-inning relief role for us."
Magpie - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#261541) #
The coincidence (thank you, Random Chance!) of Lawrie now being essentially the same (utterly random!) age used for the previous studies practically demands that I present a new Data Table:

Player                       G   PA    AB   R   H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Lloyd Moseby (May 1982)    358  1407 1284  126 296  64  7  28  142  27  26  84  280  .231  .279  .357  .636
Travis Snider (Aug 2010)   153   556  496   66 124  33  1  19   63   4   3  52  152  .250  .323  .435  .759
Brett Lawrie (Jul 2012) 139 584 533 85 153 27 7 18 63 20 9 38 91 .287 .343 .465 .808
Alex Gonzalez (Nov 1995)   126   484  420   58  97  22  5  10   43   7   4  48  131  .231  .310  .379  .689
John Olerud  (Feb 1991)    117   429  366   45  98  15  1  14   48   0   2  57   76  .268  .364  .429  .793
Tony Fernandez (Feb 1985)  103   292  267   34  72   6  4   3   21   5   8  19   17  .270  .318  .356  .674
Jesse Barfield (May 1982)   68   236  215   26  54   8  4   5   28   5   5  17   46  .251  .312  .395  .707
George Bell  (May 1982)     60   168  163   19  38   2  1   5   12   3   2   5   27  .233  .256  .350  .606
Carlos Delgado  (Feb 1995)  45   161  131   17  28   2  0   9   24   1   1  26   46  .214  .354  .435  .789
Shawn Green  (May 1995)     44   127  120   16  26   5  0   5   15   1   2   5   25  .217  .260  .383  .643
Vernon Wells  (Jun 2001)    35   125  120   14  31   6  0   2   10   3   1   5   24  .258  .288  .358  .646
Fred McGriff (May 1986)      3     5    5    1   1   0  0   0    0   0   0   0    2  .200  .200  .200  .400
And I stand corrected. Despite playing fewer games than Snider, Lawrie's had more MLB plate appearances than anyone but Moseby at the same age.
Ron - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#261542) #
"Let's start by getting the facts straight. Lincoln is not a middle reliever. On the Pirates, he actually was the set-up man. (And before this year, he was primarily a starter.) He's also clearly got potential to be a closer, based on this year's very strong numbers in late-inning and high-leverage situations. If you take away his games as a starter, Lincoln actually has an incredible 0.50 ERA as a reliever, with 40 strikeouts and only 8 walks in 35.2 innings. Doesn't sound like a middle reliever to me."

On the Pirates, it seems like half of the bullpen is the Setup Man (Lincoln, Cruz, Watson, Hughes, Grilli).

The bottom line is that you should never give up a high upside young OF for a reliever unless his name is Mariano Rivera (back when he was healthy). It's much easier finding relievers who can produce at a high level. The Rays are the perfect example of how to build a quality bullpen season after season and it doesn't involve trading away young high upside position players to obtain them.
92-93 - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#261543) #

So i wonder if a one-for-one deal was sufficent value.

Sergio Santos had 2 very effective years of relief under his belt, one of them as an elite closer. He had 6 years of team control, 3 of which were for bargain bin prices, the other 3 were cost controlled. He cost the Blue Jays Nestor Molina.

Brad Lincoln has around 40 innings as an effective reliever, and 5 years of team control. 1 will be for the MLB minimum, the other 4 will likely be arb prices. He cost the Blue Jays Travis Snider.

One of these 3 GMs (2 of them?) did not get proper value here.

grjas - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#261544) #
From today's conference call, here is Anthopoulos on Brad Lincoln and his late-inning role for the Jays

Yeah agreed. The interesting thing is do the Jays need 4 pitchers for the 8th and 9th innings- santos, janssen, lincoln and oliver. Now in fairness, the Jays of the glory years had 3 current or future closers lining up nicely for the 7th, 8th and 9th- ie TImlin, Ward and Henke. And they could turn 6 inning starters into stars.

Still, seems like overkill given the SP holes in this team, unlike the early 90's ones.
Thomas - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#261545) #
I was wondering if the Jays might be thinking about converting Lincoln back into a starter for 2013, particularly given that he was apparently displeased as being a middle/setup reliever in Pittsburgh. AA's comments suggest that isn't going to be the case, although maybe he's keeping that possibility close to his chest to avoid unnecessary speculation for a move that is months away and possibly dependent upon what other acquisitions, departures and injuries occur.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#261546) #
The bottom line is that you should never give up a high upside young OF for a reliever unless his name is Mariano Rivera

... or unless you're reasonably sure he'll never reach that high upside.

I mean, Dallas McPherson supposedly had 50-hr potential. But the Angels would have got far more out of him if they'd traded him for a middle reliever before he ever played a game in the majors.

See also: Dozens upon dozens of high-upside young OF who never came close to their potential.
China fan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#261547) #
On the question of whether Lincoln might someday be converted to a starter, Anthopoulos said this:

"I don’t think we’d ever rule it out because he’s done it before.... Obviously there’s added value in the upside that maybe one day he would potentially be able to start. But that wasn’t the primary focus when we acquired him. I would never rule it out...."
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#261548) #
The way this season has gone, Lincoln could be starting next week.
King Ryan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#261550) #
Lincoln was a starter until this year, and has pitched like a late-innings guy since moving to the bullpen. He was drafted AHEAD of Travis Snider. The idea that Snider has all this upside while Lincoln has none is incredibly cynical and silly, in my opinion. It serves only the purpose of putting as negative spin on this trade as possible.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#261551) #
Eric Thames was also an early favourite of mine, dating back to the day he was drafted.  Like Snider, he battled early career injuries and mostly adjusted and overcame them.  I wish him well in the Seattle organization.
King Ryan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#261553) #
It is amazing that fans who think Snider has superstar potential still don't seem to care about Thames, who is all of 4 months older and has a nearly-identical performance record.

I think it's mostly due to what I was saying in my other post, but it just goes to show....
Gerry - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#261555) #
If the Jays had traded Travis Snider a year ago they could have received more for him in a trade. They possibly could have got more for him if he was traded in the off-season. The Jays appear to have waited for his value to drop before he was dealt.

The Jays have received a lot of praise for increasing their scouting department, but the scouts, or AA, weren't willing to cut bait on Snider when his value was high.
Ryan C - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#261557) #
The Jays appear to have waited for his value to drop before he was dealt.

AA was asked directly on the radio whether Snider was brought up to showcase him for a trade and he responded with a negative.  According to AA, this wasn't a case of the Blue Jays dumping Snider or wanting to get what they could get for him, it was a case of they were really interested in Lincoln, and the Pirates said they had to have Snider.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#261558) #
As great as Snider was or could be, Toronto won this deal, by a large margin. Consider Lincoln to be a "Duane Ward", until we find out different. He's proven he's a set-up man on a playoff-bound team. He can also Start, maybe another "Morrow-type".

Prior to these deals , we had Casey Janssen and kids named Who? as next year's pen (and maybe Santos). Now we have Lincoln, Delabar, Happ joining Janssen (and maybe Santos) as the pen.

Any fool can say relievers are easy to find, how many teams, including this one, have had problems with that. People making foolish comments are not fools. Defending those foolish comments as being right, that's a fool.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#261559) #
Yeah, the pen legitimately looks pretty dang good:


2012 as Reliever:

1) RH B.Lincoln (27): 35.2ip, 10.1k/9, 2.0bb/9, 0.84whip, 0.50era, 2.32fip, 2.79xfip, 2.31siera
2) RH C.Janssen (30): 39.2ip, 9.3k/9, 1.4bb/9, 0.86whip, 2.27era, 2.93fip, 2.88xfip, 2.39siera
3) LH D.Oliver (41): 38.2ip, 9.1k/9, 2.1bb/9, 0.91whip, 1.40era, 2.58fip, 2.98xfip, 2.60siera
4) RH B.Lyon (32): 40.1ip, 9.8k/9, 2.5bb/9, 1.24whip, 2.90era, 2.83fip, 3.58xfip, 2.99siera
5) RH S.Delabar (28): 36.2ip, 11.3k/9, 2.7bb/9, 0.93whip, 4.17era, 5.07fip, 3.20xfip, 2.39siera
6) RH J.Frasor (34): 36.0ip, 11.3k/9, 4.8bb/9, 1.42whip, 4.00era, 4.05fip, 3.64xfip, 3.21siera

7) RH C.Villy (28): 33.1ip, 9.7k/9, 5.7bb/9, 1.41whip, 3.24era, 4.94fip, 4.40xfip, 3.97siera
7) LH A.Loup (24): 9.2ip, 5.7k/9, 0.0bb/9, 0.52whip, 2.79era, 1.83fip, 2.60xfip, 1.63siera
7) LH J.Happ (29): 5.0ip, 5.4k/9, 5.4bb/9, 1.00whip, 5.40era, 3.68fip, 5.45xfip, 5.39siera
7) LH A.Laffey (27): 9.0ip, 4.0k/9, 2.0bb/9, 0.89whip, 3.00era, 5.74fip, 4.49xfip, 4.29siera
fozzy - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#261560) #
Richard, Oliver will still be here on an option, and Luis Perez should be back around the all-star break if he heals well.

And while he's encouraging, crowning someone a Duane Ward type after 35 innings seems a little excessive. Duane Ward was a 3WAR reliever for multiple years and provided the innings of a swingman in an elite setup role, Lincoln is at 1.2 over half a season of relieving.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#261561) #
Maximizing value for a player is always the challenge. Was Snider worth more a year ago than today? Is Lincoln a good exchange or not? A general rule Bill James used to use is 'would you have done the trade a year ago' if you would've but the other team wouldn't have then it probably is a good trade.

In the past offseason Lincoln was a starting pitcher, about to enter his age 27 season with 4.8 K/9 over 100 ML innings. In the minors he never was better than 8.0 K/9 but walked under 2 per 9. Snider was entering his age 24 season and had a 93 OPS+ 248/307/423 line in LF over 877 PA. 3 times he cracked 900 for OPS in the minors but just a 873 in Vegas in 2011.

In the past offseason I can't imagine anyone would've thought that would be a good trade for the Jays unless they knew something about Lincoln that the stats don't show. This year he figured out how to K guys a lot better (over 9 per 9 IP) and get his ML walks down to his minor league level (2.1 per 9). As a starter he had homeritis (6 HR in 23 IP leading to an ERA over 6) but both as starter and reliever he was solid in the BB and K figures. Snider was in AAA all year pretty much with a 1.021 OPS which is impressive but still Vegas inflated.

This is a case where scouts are vital - has Lincoln turned a corner and is about to be a 'Duane Ward' or Morrow type or is he just another reliever? Is Snider a AAAA guy or all-star? This is a trade that can easily backfire, especially on the Jays.
Thomas - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#261562) #
Consider Lincoln to be a "Duane Ward", until we find out different. He's proven he's a set-up man on a playoff-bound team.

Why? Because of that one similarity? Do you know how many times Lincoln has entered the game in the 8th or 9th inning or pitched into the 8th or 9th with the Pirates holding a 3-run or less lead, tie games or facing a one run deficit this year?

Four times (if I've done that correctly). (He's done it an additional six times if you count the 7th inning, which I think is fair to acknowledge, but doesn't correspond to being a setup man or Duane Ward, the closer-in-waiting. More like a middle reliever and Tony Castillo.)

To suggest Lincoln's "proven" that he's a playoff-calibre setup man over 35 innings as a reliever, half of which were spent as a long reliever and pitching 2.2 innings in games such as a 13-2 blowout win, is to ignore his actual usage history and what 35 innings can and can't tell us about the quality of a pitcher.

None of this is to downplay what Lincoln's done this year or to say Lincoln might not be a good reliever, and the fact AA acquired him suggests he does believe in Lincoln's arm to some degree, but he's not "Duane Ward until we find out different."

Original Ryan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#261563) #
Defending those foolish comments as being right, that's a fool.

Ahem.

China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#261565) #
I agree that it's silly to compare Brad Lincoln to Duane Ward. Let's wait a few years and see if that comparison can be made. But if we're describing his role on the Pirates prior to the trade, I think it's more accurate to call him a set-up guy or a late-innings specialist, rather than a middle reliever. In 13 of his last 16 relief appearances, he entered the game in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning. And of those late-inning appearances, the majority were in the 8th inning.

I'm not sure if there's a strict definition of "middle reliever," but I'd interpret that term as meaning a pitcher who enters the game in the 5th or 6th inning, or arguably the 7th inning. And that applies to only a minority of Lincoln's appearances since mid-May when he settled into his current role.
China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#261566) #
On another front: I think it's time to put J. A. Happ into the rotation, replacing Laffey. Laffey was mediocre in his last outing, and worse tonight. Anthopoulos has made it clear that most of the current five starters would be going "start-to-start" and would be evaluated after each game to see if they should continue in the rotation. Laffey looked pretty bad tonight, and he wasn't exactly facing a powerhouse team. It's time to see how Happ does in the rotation. Laffey shouldn't be blocking him.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:11 AM EDT (#261567) #
Does it really matter how the Pirates used Lincoln? The Jays have scouts who watched him. Stuff is stuff, whether in the 7th, 8th or 9th.
China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:34 AM EDT (#261569) #
I agree, hypobole. What I find objectionable is people who dismiss Lincoln as a "middle reliever" as if he is a fungible replacement-level guy, when clearly the Pirates and Jays both disagree.

There's a myth that good relievers are easy to find, that you can just pick them up on the scrap heap for nothing. If it were so easy, every team would have a strong bullpen, and many don't. The Jays are a smartly managed team, and they spent a lot of effort on their bullpen over the past two years, yet they still ended up with a bad bullpen by the middle of this season -- because it's just not that easy to build a good bullpen. Of their off-season acquisitions, only Oliver has panned out. Cordero was a bust, Santos has hardly played, and now Frasor is injured. Same thing in previous seasons: at least half of their newly acquired relievers have struggled. That's why Lincoln, who is younger and more controllable and seems to be coming into his own, could be such a useful acquisition.
scottt - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#261571) #
Lincoln throws harder as a reliever, touching 95, and relies on 2 pitches.

He's not as effective when he starts.
Thomas - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#261572) #
Does it really matter how the Pirates used Lincoln?

No, it doesn't. But you also can't claim he's proven something he really hasn't. Again, my comment wasn't about the Lincoln's quality or his likelihood of turning into a useful reliever, regardless of how Farrell deploys him.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#261574) #
If the Jays had traded Travis Snider a year ago they could have received more for him in a trade. They possibly could have got more for him if he was traded in the off-season.

I'm not sure that's true. Snider was awful in the majors last year, not particularly great in Vegas (a mere .480 SLG won't pay the bills there), then finished the season on the DL with a wrist injury. How much would most teams have given up for that?
Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#261581) #

Instead of Thames and Snider era, I am ready to start talking about the Gose, Sierra and some day soon Marisnick era.

 

92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#261583) #
"As for Snider: if you choose to dismiss his MLB statistics over the past four years, do you also want to dismiss the assessment of the Jays talent evaluators? The Jays have made it abundantly clear that they are doubtful of Snider's mechanics. They demoted him last year, they refused to give him a starting job in April, and they took their sweet time in promoting him this year. The Jays know Snider better than anyone, and they're clearly unimpressed. (Independent evaluators like Keith Law have also questioned Snider's mechanics this year, even after the latest attempt at a minor-league fix.)"

If these are the same evaluators who decided calling up Gose because he was the most MLB-ready instead of Snider, Thames, Cooper, and Sierra then yes, I want to dismiss their assessment. They also decided that Davis was a better option to start in LF than Snider once it became abundantly clear to anybody who didn't realize it in the preseason that Thames was not an AL East calibre everyday LF. These professional decisions have turned into a playing line of .255/.303/.391 from LF, and that includes an .856 OPS from Snider in nearly 10% of the games.

And give me a break about Keith Law. He saw maybe a couple of spring training games and repeatedly said he liked the adjustments Snider had made. It was only once this trade went down that he started to sound skeptical about the changes; I guess Law, who people here have said before is not a scout, can now judge mechanical adjustments from his TV set.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#261584) #
Also, were these the same scouts that decided offering Francisco Cordero 4.5m was a good idea, despite nobody with access to a computer believing the same? Farrell did an excellent job down the stretch in 2011 of getting Shawn Camp to Type B status, and the team decided that he wasn't worth bringing back on an arb offer, one that would have cost the team what, 2.5-3m? Great decision that was. Almost as good as Farrell's decision to continue to run Cordero out in high leverage situations despite it being obvious to everyone else that he flat out sucked.
China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#261586) #
"....calling up Gose because he was the most MLB-ready...."

Gose was obviously not promoted because he was the most "MLB-ready" of the outfielders. He was seen as a CF with significant future potential, and this early stint was a way to bolster his development. Of course the Jays don't say that publicly -- they have to stick to the "most ready" official line in their public pronouncements.

"....These professional decisions have turned into a playing line of .255/.303/.391 from LF...."

Which, actually, is an upgrade on the numbers that Snider posted at the major-league level in 202 plate appearances last year.

"....It was only once this trade went down that he started to sound skeptical about the changes..."

Untrue. Keith Law has been criticizing Snider's mechanics for most of this season.

"....Almost as good as Farrell's decision to continue to run Cordero out in high leverage situations...."

Another myth. After the first few weeks of the season, Farrell switched him to lower-leverage situations. He hasn't held the high-leverage role since May -- and then he was dumped entirely.

I'm not really sure of why it's helpful to make sarcastic comments about the Jays scouting department. Like any team, they're inevitably going to make mistakes. It's easy to point to mistakes on any team. But if you're going to be sarcastic and snarky, you're implying that the Jays are a poor organization. In fact they've developed one of the best farm systems in baseball, and I assume that good scouting is one of the reasons.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#261587) #
"Which, actually, is an upgrade on the numbers that Snider posted at the major-league level in 202 plate appearances last year."

It's also far worse than the 675 MLB PA put up as a 20-22 year old before 2011.

"Untrue. Keith Law has been criticizing Snider's mechanics for most of this season."

No, he hasn't.

"Another myth. After the first few weeks of the season, Farrell switched him to lower-leverage situations. He hasn't held the high-leverage role since May -- and then he was dumped entirely."

Wrong. Cordero was still being used in very high leverage situations in June, instead of being DFAd.
Oceanbound - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#261588) #
There's a myth that good relievers are easy to find, that you can just pick them up on the scrap heap for nothing.

Leaving aside the fact that the Pirates basically constructed a great pen out of nothing, fungible isn't really a good description for relievers. Their performance is just extremely volatile. This is perfectly illustrated by the Jays bullpen. They did spend a lot of effort into building it. It also isn't particularly good. The lesson to be learned here ought to be "just because you spend a lot of effort and assets in building a bullpen, doesn't necessarily mean you'll have a good pen, because bad things generally happen to pens", not "let's spend even more effort and assets in building a pen".
China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#261589) #
Cordero was still being used in OCCASIONAL high-leverage situations after May. But as John Northey convincingly demonstrated in a post some weeks ago, the vast majority of his appearances from May onward were NOT high-leverage situations. His role was clearly switched to a lower-leverage role. And yes, any reliever in the bullpen can occasionally find himself in a high-leverage situation, but you can't deny that Farrell switched him to a generally lower-leverage role after the first few weeks of the season.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#261590) #
I've been listening to Law on Baseball Today all year (and that's what I was basing the above on), but a quick Google search yielded an interesting result from DJF in late May:

“He’s still got a lot of those mechanical issues to work out,” Law says. “I thought that Snider– I was actually surprised that Rasmus made the club and Snider went to Triple-A. I thought, if one of those guys was going to go to Triple-A– I did a piece on potential bounce-back candidates, and I had Snider on it and not Rasmus. Part of that was, Snider’s mechanical adjustments that he needed to make were smaller than the ones that Rasmus needed to make, particularly Rasmus’s lower half– just the way he, really from his stance, and from how he uses his legs, through his swing, he’s– I think– still got quite a bit of work to do. And I’m surprised– not necessarily questioning it, just surprised that they chose to send Snider, who had quite smaller adjustments to make, and it looked like he’d made them in Spring Training, and kept Rasmus up. I think Rasmus is much more of a long-term project for the Blue Jays. They weren’t going to fix what was going on with Rasmus in an off-season– there was a better chance they’d fix what was going on with Snider in an off-season.”

And here's what Law said in one of his chats shortly after the Arencibia donut incident:

"I like Snider quite a bit and think his swing changes will lead to better results in the majors. That said, not only is he repeating AAA in a hitter's park, he's got more than a season's worth of ABs facing better quality pitching. This is a step down for him - he should be raking."
Paul D - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#261591) #
Apparently Thames as asked his opinion of the trade, and he said something like "I'd say the Mariners won the trade". I'm going to miss that.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#261592) #

Cordero was still being used in OCCASIONAL high-leverage situations after May. But as John Northey convincingly demonstrated in a post some weeks ago, the vast majority of his appearances from May onward were NOT high-leverage situations. His role was clearly switched to a lower-leverage role.

I'm glad we cleared up that you were arguing with a point I never made. It's not the first time. Francisco Cordero continued to be run out in high leverage situations (not as a high leverage reliever, as you chose to put it) despite it being pretty clear to everyone that he was flat out awful. If the Jays were willing to absorb his salary and DFA him the team would have been better off and it's likely AA is able to procure more in trade from the Astros for the prospect package they parted with. Taking on Cordero's salary was negative value for Houston.

China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#261593) #
The quotes from Keith Law seem to confirm my point. He saw Snider's performance in 2012 as a "step down."
uglyone - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#261594) #
Cordero blew up. This happens to most bullpens every year - one or more of their relievers falls apart. It's rare, though, that when it happens a team will continue to use that guy more than anyone else.

The Red Sox traded Lowrie for Melancon in the offseason, but when Malancon blew up they immediately sent him down to the minors. The A's signed Brian Fuentes to a 2+ year $5m/yr deal last year, but when he blew up this year they released him after 2 months. The Nats threw $1m at Lidge in the offseason, and when he blew up they dumped him.

It's a real shame the Jays let Cordero bring down this bullpen almost singlehandedly. for a while there, the worse he pitched the more farrell used him, just out of honor or stubborness or whatever.
Oceanbound - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#261596) #
For some reason Cordero's terribleness was not communicated to Houston, as they immediately placed him in the closer's role upon acquiring him. Shockingly, he blew his first two opportunities, and now has an ERA of over 7. Maybe it was an elaborate attempt to tank without being obvious. Look for Cordero to be playing some badminton in London soon.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#261597) #
Your point was that "Keith Law has been criticizing Snider's mechanics for most of this season." He hasn't.
Paul D - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#261598) #
Do all these bullpen moves mean that Stroman's going to the rotation eventually?
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#261599) #
If you look at Lincoln's career splits, you sure would be inclined to leave him in relief.  As a starter, he struggles the 2nd time through the order. 

In his career as a reliever, he has only made one back-to-back appearance.  It did not go well.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#261600) #
On that note, MG, check out Cecil's splits this year each time through the order; not exactly screaming LOOGY or tandem starter.
China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#261601) #
"....It's a real shame the Jays let Cordero bring down this bullpen almost singlehandedly...."

And almost nothing can be attributed to the injuries to Santos, Perez and Frasor, the need to put Villanueva into the rotation, and the poor performances of Carreno, Crawford, Chavez, and almost every other young pitcher who was elevated into the bullpen?
Chuck - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#261602) #

In his career as a reliever, he has only made one back-to-back appearance.  It did not go well.

So not Duane Ward?

 

hypobole - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#261603) #
"Also, were these the same scouts that decided offering Francisco Cordero 4.5m was a good idea, despite nobody with access to a computer believing the same? Farrell did an excellent job down the stretch in 2011 of getting Shawn Camp to Type B status, and the team decided that he wasn't worth bringing back on an arb offer, one that would have cost the team what, 2.5-3m? Great decision that was."

Absolutely right on Cordero, absolutely wrong on Camp. Type B is irrelevant, there is no way he would have turned down the $2.5+ million he would have gotten in arb and nobody with access to a computer would believe he was worth that. As it was he ended up signing for $750K (and was also released in spring training).
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#261604) #
Sounds as though Jim Callis still likes Snider at least somewhat:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA
910 OPS in minors, 735 in majors. Should at least split that difference. @lohdoggydogg: Ceiling w/ Snider? #Pirates
Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#261605) #

I don't think it is that easy to assemble a good bullpen(or pitching staff).  With injuries, flops, etc, it is really hard.  I think what you do need to do is get organizational depth to make sure you can adjust to these issues.  I think that is what AA has done.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#261606) #
"And almost nothing can be attributed to the injuries to Santos, Perez and Frasor, the need to put Villanueva into the rotation, and the poor performances of Carreno, Crawford, Chavez, and almost every other young pitcher who was elevated into the bullpen?"

IMO, he top-5 guys in the pen have done really well - Janssen, Oliver, Frasor, Villy, Perez - 189.2ip, 2.85era. Perez and Villy are now out but have been replaced by Lyon and Happ (9.1ip, 2.89era). That's a solid basis for a bullpen, IMO.

Santos and Cordero were supposed to be two of our best relievers but it didn't work out. That sucks, but IMO it's our own fault for sticking with Cordero so long. But the other issue is who they decided to use to fill in the gaps in the bullpen.

Heading into the season, based on their track records, I would have called Carreno (career 23.2ip/1.90era as RP) and Laffey (career 105.1ip/4.19era as RP) our two most likely first bullpen fill ins. Those would have been my go to guys when the front 7 got injured or faltered, as both have shown the ability to be successful MLB relievers. This year, they've combined for 17ip of relief work and a 3.18era. Not sure if they could keep up quite at that pace up but I'm sure both would be competent bottom of the bullpen relievers.

For some reason, though, instead of leaning on those two guys with some semblance of an MLB track record, the FO decided to not only stick stubbornly with Cordero, but then use all sorts of AAA veteran nobodies to fill in our bullpen as well. Like really, really bad veteran nobodies with middling AAA experience and awful MLB experience. So we end up with Chavez, Carpenter, Beck, Pauley, Coello, Richmond, and Igarashi combining to give us 45.0ip of 8.40era. That is nobody's fault but our own.

Not only were we passing over guys with some semblance of quality MLB track record in Carreno and Laffey, but we had some younger talent with more upside that we could have tried instead....and the results wouldn't have been great but they would have been better, as younger guys Loup, and Crawford have combined for a 4.58era in the 17.2ip they've pitched.

I think the bullpen woes were mostly self-inflicted - doubling down on Cordero was bad enough, but that steady stream of craptacular veteran AAA nobodies when there were some options with actual talent and track record to use instead was even worse.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#261607) #
"Absolutely right on Cordero, absolutely wrong on Camp. Type B is irrelevant, there is no way he would have turned down the $2.5+ million he would have gotten in arb and nobody with access to a computer would believe he was worth that. As it was he ended up signing for $750K (and was also released in spring training)."

If you were willing to spend 4.5m on Cordero you shouldn't have thought twice about offering Camp arbitration, a non-guaranteed salary. Camp was better than Cordero in 2011 and has been predictably better than Cordero in 2012 yet again.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#261608) #
On that note, MG, check out Cecil's splits this year each time through the order; not exactly screaming LOOGY or tandem starter.

Cecil seems to have had a particular difficulty with the second inning this year.  How many 3 runs homers has he allowed in that inning?  Anyways, his career splits are actually consistent with tandem starting.  He is so-so the first time through the order, better the second time and worse the third time.  He would probably do a little better in a tandem role; as a starter, opposing managers can load up on the RHHs, but if he followed a RHP, they would like not do so to the same extent. 
China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#261609) #
Speaking of relievers: Stroman has been promoted to New Hampshire. It will be very interesting to see whether he succeeds at that level this year. There's still talk that he could reach the majors by September. That might be true, but I'm skeptical that he will contribute much at such an early stage in his career. More likely an expanded-rosters call-up, watching and learning from (mostly) the sidelines.
China fan - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#261610) #
"....I would have called Carreno (career 23.2ip/1.90era as RP) and Laffey (career 105.1ip/4.19era as RP) our two most likely first bullpen fill ins...."

Surely the explanation is simply that the Jays wanted those 2 pitchers to remain as starters? With good reason, the Jays were aware that their rotation had weaknesses, and they wanted to have 6th and 7th starters available at Las Vegas, stretched out and ready to step into the rotation at a moment's notice. Carreno, in particular, was a starter for most of his career, and the Jays didn't want to lose that potential without giving it a good try.

Of course the Carreno experiment may have failed -- he might be better suited to be a reliever -- but you can't blame the Jays for trying to keep him as a starter, where his value would be highest.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#261612) #
no doubt, and there's no way we could have avoided giving ANY innings at all to the craptacular AAA vets, but there were long stretches of Laffey and Carreno starting in the minors when they could have been in the bullpen...and moreover I don't think it would have been very hard to move them from the 'pen into the rotation if we wanted to. It doesn't take long to stretch out guys who are used to starting and who would likely have been long men in the 'pen anyways.
ayjackson - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#261613) #

Sounds as though Jim Callis still likes Snider at least somewhat:

There are a lot of talent evaluators out there, not employed by the Blue Jays (dig), that are still believers in the upside of Travis Snider.

TamRa - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#261614) #
There's still talk that he could reach the majors by September. That might be true, but I'm skeptical that he will contribute much at such an early stage in his career. More likely an expanded-rosters call-up, watching and learning from (mostly) the sidelines.

I was musing on this last night. with so many arms having been added I'm wondering if it's wise to add Stroman for a September call-up, for whatever purpose, given that you commit to using a 40 man roster spot on him and potentially start burning options next year.

As it stands now, the September pitching staff could easily look like this:

Morrow/Romero/Alvarez/Happ/Villianueva

Janssen
Oliver
Lincoln
Lyon
Frasor
Cecil
Delbar
Laffey
Loup
D. Carpenter
A. Carpenter
Crawford
Dyson
Carreno

And that leaves off Chavez, Beck, and the potential that Hutchison makes it back to active duty.

That's not a situation where they NEED Stroman, and you can probably have him hang around without actually being on the roster.

I'm gonna have to research the rules of the AFL, I think that promoting him early enough to AA would make him eligible and if so, my bet is THAT is where he will be...and generally AFL players are not September call-ups.

smcs - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#261616) #
Stroman can go to the AFL. You have to be promoted to the AAA or AA roster no later than August 1. Plus, each franchise can send 1 player from below AA.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#261618) #
given that you commit to using a 40 man roster spot on him and potentially start burning options next year.

That's not really an issue, is it? Stroman's rep is that he's pretty close to MLB ready, at least as a reliever. Maybe he bounces between Toronto and AAA in 2013, but if he's still doing it in 2014 & 2015, something has probably gone quite wrong with his development.

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#261623) #
Perhaps Snider will reach his potential, but I remember many talent evaluators including BA still believing in prospects like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte at similar stages of their careers - of course, those organisations held on to those players and eventually got no value - the Jays chose to sell while Snider still had some value, time will tell.  
92-93 - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#261625) #
Meant that as a response to 85bluejay in the other thread, whoops.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#261630) #

Thank You, 92-93, for illustrating my comment so well - the fact that these prospect evaluators still give a thumbs up to Wood & Marte after their dismal ML performance suggest that their comments be taken with a large grain of salt. You're so kind.

ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#261632) #
All of it well put Magpie. Both in assessment and sentiment. I too wish Travis the best and will be sure to make at least one trip to Bradenton.

Had Snider not been out of options this year, he may well have been kept. (if I'd bought Apple at 82 in 2009.....). But he was, and for the reasons you've stated which had more to do with trying to resuscitate an expiring GM. The FO now has decided they had to fish or cut bait, as he was either going to be a regular corner fielder next year as is, or else he'd be exposed to waivers. I suspect that in on that decision was Tony LaCava, who according to reports at the time had talked Ricciardi into Snider and out of Matt Antonelli.

The absurd attempts to portray the Toronto evaluators as incompetent fall flat. I suspect they know what they can fix, and the things (bat speed may be one) where they've been unable. As another has said, time will tell on this one but I don't think we're witnessing Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas. I say that while wishing Travis Snider the best. I think the lowered expectations and the absence of hysteria in Pittsburgh will favor his cause.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#261637) #
Richard, Oliver will still be here on an option, and Luis Perez should be back around the all-star break if he heals well.

And while he's encouraging, crowning someone a Duane Ward type after 35 innings seems a little excessive. Duane Ward was a 3WAR reliever for multiple years and provided the innings of a swingman in an elite setup role, Lincoln is at 1.2 over half a season of relieving.

 A lot of what I'm hearing says Oliver is considering retirement (being 42 this offseason can do that to a person).   Tommy John surgery has always been 12 months for rare individuals, 18 months for most individuals and 24 months for rare individuals.   Perez has approximately a 1 in 4 chance of not being as good as he was, as well as approximately a 1 in 4 chance of being better than before.   The remaining 50% of the time, little or no change from before, just healthier. Most of our Relievers don't pitch in the upper 90's ever, but both Lincoln and Delabar can.   Your point was that "Keith Law has been criticizing Snider's mechanics for most of this season." He hasn't. I tend to listen when Keith Law speaks and read what he writes when I can.  Every time Law spoke about Snider he mentioned his "mechanics" and not favorably.  He doesn't volunteer this unless it answers a question asked generally about Snider. (Where do you rank Snider -wouldn't...Why or how - would).  If you look at Lincoln's career splits, you sure would be inclined to leave him in relief. As a starter, he struggles the 2nd time through the order.

In his career as a reliever, he has only made one back-to-back appearance. It did not go well.
  One - small sizes indeed.
Your site is acting up again.
Sano - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#261639) #
Well that series was a punch to the gut. This team is really a roller-coaster to follow. Sweep, get swept, sweep, get swept. Leaving aside legitimate performance issues, this pattern makes me wonder about the strength of the coaching staff. They seem to be able to rally the team after tough series losses but can't seem to get them to maintain the momentum. Don't really know how this gets changed.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#261641) #
I think we'll go into freefall now. This reminds me of when the Red Sox traded Babe Ruth. 80 some odd years of misery ahead.

I don't have that long so I better move on to spearheading the return of the Expos.

(Note: I recognize that I may not be completely rational in this debate, but passion demands its say!)
ogator - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#261649) #
Sure glad we shut them down in the 7th and 8th or things might have got ugly. A good GM diagnoses the weaknesses of his team and then takes steps accordingly. Those 7th and 8th inning guys were a glaring weakness. That problem just jumped out ahead of the other weaknesses.
Dewey - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#261655) #
I turned off the TV after Thames's homer.  But that was long enough for me to have to witness Rajai Davis screw up on the basepaths yet again.  Speed is famously his greatest asset, and he doesn't use it to maximum effect.  In fact, he's run himself into several bonehead outs this year.  He's not a good baserunner, even if he is fast.
TamRa - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#261658) #
Sano made the point that was on my mind. Several times this year the temptation has been to say "Well, that's it - season over" and after every one of those points they got off the mat and rallied for several games and provoked fresh hope.

It is still true that one hot two-week stretch would put them in or very close to a playoff spot, but the opportunities to do that are thinning given the rest of the schedule.

bpoz - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#261666) #
Good luck to Travis & Eric.

IMO injuries have had an effect on Snider's hitting. I liked his defensive effort last year, he played some CF.
AA often says that many players get sent down to work on things. Thames could just be in that category.

We will have to see how Lincoln & Delabar perform the rest of the way.

Sierra should be good defensively in the OF. Hopefully he gets 200 ABs the rest of the way.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#261670) #
Sano made the point that was on my mind. Several times this year the temptation has been to say "Well, that's it - season over" and after every one of those points they got off the mat and rallied for several games and provoked fresh hope.

It is still true that one hot two-week stretch would put them in or very close to a playoff spot, but the opportunities to do that are thinning given the rest of the schedule.


I would say that's definitely it now.  Any reasonable hope of a playoff spot is gone after getting swept in Seattle.  The Jays would now need to go 36-22 the rest of the way to get to 87 wins, which is probably the minimum number for WC2.  Given their sched the rest of the way - forget it.
TamRa - Friday, August 03 2012 @ 03:40 AM EDT (#261734) #
Sierra should be good defensively in the OF. Hopefully he gets 200 ABs the rest of the way.

I don't hope that at all. if that happens it means Bautista spent the rest of the year on the DL. No thanks.

When JB returns Seirra is the obvious candidate for demotion.
Beyonder - Friday, August 03 2012 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#261742) #
You may be right about the obvious choice Tamra, but I would sooner see Sierra get 200 abs than watch Gose flail around for the rest of the season while sitting against every left-hander. He's not close to ready. At this point I think the accelerated promotion schedule is hurting his development.

The same goes for Marisnick. When it comes to outfielders at least, AA seems to favour a baptism of fire approach, promoting Gose and Marisnick before they have mastered the lower levels.
bpoz - Friday, August 03 2012 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#261757) #
TamRa & Beyonder, Thanks for responding.

I feel that Gose will spend a lot of 2013 in AAA, so that he can polish up his game. I could be wrong but I do not think he is ready for the Majors yet. Sierra may not be ready also but he has burned 2 options. If healthy & playing Sierra has 200 more ABs left until the end of the season, as does Gose. I think Sierra develops more by being on the AAA/Majors shuttle & Gose develops more with the opportunity to have a monster AAA partial season.
TamRa - Friday, August 03 2012 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#261771) #
I'm not so much saying i like the idea of Gose being up - I'm still not convinced there isn't another acquisition of some sort coming - just saying IMO i think AA is more likely to keep him up than Seirra.


ayjackson - Friday, August 03 2012 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#261780) #
You'd burn an option to send Gose down now, no? He was added to the 40 man so an option hasn't been used this year. So might as well keep him here.
hypobole - Friday, August 03 2012 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#261788) #
If Gose is optioned down for 20 consecutive days he burns an option
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