My rotation right now would be Romero, Alvarez, Cecil, Villenueva, Laffey

And then I would be shopping... for Garza first, but after that just controllable arms that are better than Cecil. Probably two of them.

There's no way we can do this in house. Certainly not this season and probably not next season either. So to me this is the perfect time to get aggressive for that elite/near elite starter we've been clammoring for since November.  I think Garza or Grienke ideally, Dempster, Halladay or Johan Santana if the Mets slip up (were that we could go back to the offseason for that trade), I would inquire whether we can buy low on Lincecum (doubt it), and at the absolute worst add Wandy.  

I think you also need to grab a #5 innings eater who is a little more disposable but can save us in the short term. John Lannan shouldn't cost much, Guthrie has been mentioned and would have a bit more upside, I'd call on Ervin Santana and Paul Maholm.  AJ Burnett could also make ironic/possibly hilarious sense.

I'm dangling Snider, JPA/D'Arnaud (D'arnaud only for Grienke), maybe Hech, and maybe a low minors starter (i.e. Stilson) as components for the first group.

I'm dangling Jiminez, McDade, Sierra, and the like for the second group.

Also, I do believe that Villaneueva makes sense in our starting rotation, I just think we'll need him to replace Henderson Alvarez relatively soon.

I just see a note on MLBTR that the Braves are looking for pitching.  And I assume there are a lot of other teams looking for pitching, there always are.  If pitching is so hard to get, can this team be competitive in 2013?

There could be pitching available in mid-year, guys who are having bad years like a Guthrie, like a Jurrjens.  Or you might get a AAA prospect for current value.  Other than that the pickings could be slim.

Getting a pitcher who's struggling now at least gives the team someone to put on the mound every 5th day, and in all likelihood provides depth for 2013 as well. I would think that firming up the rotation as far as innings pitched are concerned is the immediate goal, with perhaps the added expectation that the pitcher acquired may be able to pitch effectively in 2013.

I disagree, with the notion that the acqusitions I suggested are for 2012. If we're going after the elite pitching we should be going after them for the long term, well beyond 2012. This would have been an organizational need even without all of the injuries! Garza is already signed through next season and there's no reason we can't extend Grienke or whomever else we acquire. This is about being proactive for next season as much as protecting this season (which there is value in by the way).

As for my innings eaters. I'm still willing to give up some value (McDade being as high as I'd go) because they'd be preventing us from destroying an entire bullpen worth of arms which is what we are doing at the moment.

I have no objection to A.A. acquiring a Good Starter now, it will help with our problems now.   A pitcher like Garza is a Free Agent after 2013.   He's playing well now and should continue to do so next year.   Offer him a "Qualifying Offer" if you can't or won't sign him.   He has 7 days to decide whether to accept or decline the offer.   You either keep him 1 more year or get a draft pick.    The same reasons applies for Justin Morneau, healthy and playing very well now and should next year, Free Agent next year getting "QO", another possible Draft Pick.   The fact that he can help the team now doesn't hurt.

I just don't think just getting one good Starter now is enough.   I think we are a Top-Of-The-Rotation Starter and a Middle-Of The-Rotation Starter away.   ?????, Romero, Morrow, ?????, rookie is our best Rotation, which will evolve as Studs come up.

Keith Law is weighing in as part of his chat today:

 Is any of the available pitching on the trade market worth me giving up any of my big 4 pitching prospects (Sanchez, Syndergard, Nicolino, Norris)?

Why would you do that?

Where are those "elite", established pitchers, Beyonder? Does the hypothetical whiff on Darvish count? As the estimable yoda once said, "Do or do not. There is no try."

"The latest market efficiency is hanging on to your prospects, developing them, and actually letting them play on your team. In other words, the latest market efficiency is patience." How is that the latest market efficiency when said unproven prospects implode mentally (Alvarez), physically (Hutchison) or both (Drabek), none of which was totally unsurprising?

---

Here are the numbers. The Jays have a $75 million payroll in 2012, good for 22nd in the league. Not-so-coincidentally, the team ERA is 4.16 (21st overall), Quality Starts of 33 (21st overall) and WHIP of 1.36 (22nd overall) [all stats ESPN]. So, in fact, the Jays pitching staff are achieving pretty much exactly according to their projected payroll (though with last week's injuries, it'll likely get worse, as we have seen in the Milwaukee series).

According to Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/teams/toronto-blue-jays/ [March 2012] the Jays are listed at #25 in team valuations, and have an operating income of $24.9 million. That's $25 million in profit that could be plowed back into the team payroll, with the current need being starting pitching. And lo and behold, a more competitive team would result in even greater operating income, as our benevolent overlords at Rogers Comm can start charging Sportsnet advertisers more $$$ with the promise of more eyeballs. And onward and upwards.

Please AA, don't talk to me about "payroll parameters" when the Brewers are #22 on Forbes team valuations, had an operating income of $19.2 million, but for some strange reason are ranked #10 in payroll with $98 million and have a pitching staff of Greinke ($13.5M), Wolf ($9.5M), Marcum ($7.725M) and Gallardo ($5.75M). In a much less competitive division. And yup, Milwaukee gave up a pretty decent prospect for Marcum, but for some reason he fit within the Brew Crew’s “payroll parameters”. Marcum and his 1.17 WHIP would look pretty decent in a Jays uni right now, no? And again, we’re talking $25M in Rogers profit, period. No prospects needed in spending that $25M on FAs.

Maybe this season is a wash with 3/5 of the starting pitching staff on the DL, but now knowing that Drabek and Hutch may well miss some of 2013, if we're still talking about promoting Jenkins as Rogers pockets another $25 mil of baseball-related income, we collectively as Jays fans are suckers, plain and simple.

That is a bit of a reach. The reason the Orioles are ahead of the Jays is their 11-6 record in one run games (vs 5-12). Further, while Hammel and Chen have been good to this point, it is worth noting that neither would have been considered even merely good before the season started. Chen is a soft tossing, two pitch lefty with no track record in MLB and Hammel had all of two adequate years in the NL surrounded by a whole lot of awful. These were low-risk, low-upside acquisitions that have greatly exceeded any reasonable expectations.

I don't think anyone on this board would argue that we should have been more aggressive on pitching in the offseason.  Edwin Jackson, who eventually signed what I believe to be a manageable contract, would have been the obvious Non-Darvish choice but there were others. At the same time, AA thought it was worth rolling the dice with our young pitching and hoping to catch lightening in a bottle.  In fairness, he couldn't possibly expected a) the simultaneous injury to 3/5 of his staff b) the struggles of Cecil c) exacerbation of injuries to McGowan and Litsch d) the complete and utter implosion of McGuire and Jenkins and e) the struggle of our bullpen to the point that Villaneueva may not be expendable. We are dealing with extreme circumstances here after all, and his decision at that time was at least defensible.

Fast forward to today however and we have a much different situation.  All of the above issues are likely to continue into next season (although Jenkins has strung together a couple of decent starts) and possibly longer.  There will be far more urgency to address the pitching in this offseason then last.  I don't see how he could "stand pat" again this offseason. 

I'm just saying it is better to go after pitching NOW rather than in the offseason.  For one, we could still turn things around, and if we get that elite starter I think the back end guy will work itself out (again, Maholm, Lannan and Guthrie are all former opening day starters who should cost next to nothing).  Also, while it may cost us a fortune now to add that arm, we will be competing with fewer teams: in the offseason teams like the Pirates and Cubs will start thinking they can compete and will drive the price up.  Yes we have to compete with the Braves and a few other teams for arms at the moment, but come November we will be bidding against 29 other teams. Finally, for potential free agents (i.e. Grienke) we will have 4 months to sell them on our team, evaluate how they fit with our team, and in our city.  I'm not sure you can place a value on it, but for a guy like Grienke I would say that this is important.

And yet despite that ranking by one person in a very weak class, Chen still had zero MLB experience and was in possession of shiny ERAs despite mediocre K/9 numbers in the NFB. Adding a pitcher "with more upside than the typical NFB refugee" as Law puts it is not a bad thing, but it would be very hard to look at that acquisition without the benefit of hindsight and say with any certainty that Baltimore added a good starter to their rotation for 2012.

Magpie, I think you missed my point.  All of those things individually were perfectly plausible, I guess my point is that it was highly unlikely that all of them happening in unison was unlikely. Certainly not the loss of 3 pitchers in 4 starts. 

I would also argue that my point about Jenkins/McGuire was perfectly relevant,  if they were pitching to even a 4.00 ERA in AA we'd be calling them up. No we shouldn't have assumed they'd be pitching heavy innings back in January, but we are pretty far down the depth chart at this point. Again, this is a doomsday scenario.

I was on record in December as wanting Johan Santana (at the time we could have had significant salary relief in the deal too) and Edwin Jackson. But I understood AA's reluctance at the time.  I won't understand it this offseason, and I really think there is more value to be had at the deadline than in the offseason.

"Rogers is the greatest owner in the world. If we ever need money, it's there for us." - Paul Beeston, paraphrased.

"Look over there! A unicorn!" - Chuck

d) Hey, maybe Roger Clemens can still pitch. He's a free man now, isn't he?

Note: I am not a major league general manager. And I am not seriously suggesting (d).

Maybe Rog's old buddy Pettitte saved some HGH back from when he used it just that one time. Maybe Rog could ask to borrow some. In a plausibly deniable way. Or are they likely not talking any more?

Or perhaps I've just heard the sanitized version of the truth.

I may be mistaken, but I seem to recall someone in the organization using careful language about Lind's fitness level or some such. I took that to be code for a much harsher indictment which might sound something like: "We're paying him millions, we've got a weight room and a tread mill right over there and his only interest is the desert platter. Is he serious about his career or not?"

I confess that my personal biases may have contributed to my interpretation of a potentially innocuous remark.

Who can blame him for getting addicted to prickly pear? :)

Rats. Maybe a desert platter would have been the solution.

The most likely scenario in my mind is AA finding cheap stopgaps for 2012 and trying to sign a starter in the offseason, someone such as Greinke, Hamels, or Dempster. Of course with Greinke or Hamels the team would have to pony up serious cash, but someone like a Dempster might only require a 3 or 4 year contract.

J.P. Arencibia has much better AAA stats than Travis d'Arnaud.   J.P. was MVP.    J.P. was a very decent defensive catcher in AAA.   He's much better now.   I keep him.   Travis d'Arnaud is a long way away defensively.   He probably will not get as good defensively as J.P., ever.  It's unlikely he will ever be as good offensively.   Any thought of trading the better hitter and the better defender is wishful thinking.   Now as for the Halladay Haul.   Drabek will return in 2 years, perhaps only as a reliever, but still good.   Him, I keep.   Anthony Gose is a Stud, very good defensively, improving greatly offensively.   Him, I keep.   I trade d'Arnaud as soon as I can, before he devalues.

Adeiny Hechavarria is a defensive star, who may or may not hit well enough (it's Las Vegas after all).   As long as Escobar is average, his contract is too good to trade.   If someone wants Hech, I trade him. 

Those two are the most expendable we have to trade in top value MLB-ready(ish) players.   If it brings in a Stud, it's worth it.

In his first season in Triple-A, JP put up a .728 OPS playing for Las Vegas. At the same age, in his first season in Triple-A, Travis d'Arnaud has a .976 OPS. In his MVP season, JP had a .986 OPS.

Your definition of "much better" is not the same as mine.

Ask Keith Law who you keep and Why.   Then ask A.A. who's the best catcher and who he would trade first if THE offer came.   Chances are good, they say the same thing - keep J.P.

Besides if d'Arnaud's that good, he's worth more in trade than J.P.

Trading for Top Value requires Top Value.   If you can't do it, don't be a G.M. (or wannabe GM).

Lind has far... FAR more holes in his swing than David Cooper.

Well I wouldn't really say a .750 OPS (and I think this is optimistic on Cooper) with poor defense at first is a solid MLB player. Cooper is basically a replacement level player at this point.

Also he's now a .217/.271/.422 hitter in 742 career plate appearances, which is pretty damning.

There's a balance to be had though.  While most of us would love to have added Fielder, Beltran, Darvish and CJ Wilson this past offseason- I don't think any Blue Jays fan would have expected that.

On the other hand adding Edwin Jackson and Carlos Pena (just an example) would have been a show of good faith from ownership at the time (and likely would have us closer to contention).

Now, given that attendance was relatively flat last season and the Jays weren't that close to contending you could argue that ownership were justified in waiting until fans showed up before putting money into the team. 

Well guess what? Fans have shown up now, and more importantly fans KNOW that they have shown up! If the words "payroll parameters" come up in the next 18 months I wouldn't want to be the guy who says them. 

I don't think it has anything to do with being Canadian. By some confluence of circumstances, the Leafs, Raptors and Jays are amongst the only teams owned by publicly traded corporations in the 4 professional leagues. I don't believe the NFL allows corporate ownership, for example, and it's rare in the other leagues. I think the Braves and Mariners are the only other ones in baseball. If you're publicly owned you have financial responsibilities. I say this to explain rather than excuse. It sucks. I would much rather if Rogers had bought the team with his personal money, or if one of the Thompson's bought it, an Asper, whatever.

Enjoyable thread altogether. And Magpie, you said it about Ted's obscure object of desire. At the very least ownership should want to win.  And make money...it's like normal development in corporate psychology to the OS of Rogers the corporation, and they use it for heirarchy: first you win, then there's money.

Ted Rogers bought the Jays in 2000...and he was son who worked late to keep up...I think he helped the team, although I imagine other opinions.

But without Ted's leadership, the Corporation's concerns are about fish for their barrel. It;'s not like Steinbrenner and the yankees and YES...that tail wags no dogs. The Ballclub is not in control here.

I hope Joe Torre buys the Jays.

Chavez pitched great yesterday except for the innings where he gave up 6 runs.  He does deserve another chance, but if he fails again they can replace him with..... um...... never mind.

I've coined a term for anytime Laffey actually starts a game for the Blue Jays.  We can call it a Laffer.

A LOOGY start?

Except that it takes 7 or 8 batters to get the one out.

Thomas

Hutchison decision was announced on Friday.  What they are saying now is that a lot of pitchers have a tear in their ligament and while Hutch has one it might turn into TJ or it might not.  But at this stage it is not serious enough to warrant surgery and that if he rests for six weeks he should be OK.

In a Blockbuster (or even lesser) Deal, A.A. trades Edwin Encarnacion et al to ??? for stud pitching/hitting ??? plus ???.

A.A. can then sign E.E. as a Free Agent.   If gaining a top asset, what's the problem?