Before the draft report cards come out, I would like to go on the record and say that I think they are a waste of time and ink.  I have several reasons for thinking this:

1. Prospect evaluation is very unpredictable and the further you are from the major leagues the more uncertain it is.  We know most of these picks will never have a long major league career but the evaluators write as if they are guaranteed performers.

2. Most draft report cards give high grades to teams with high picks or lots of picks.  Well duh! 

3. If it is not for the reasons in #2 then a team will get a high draft mark for picking a player lower than how the writer ranked them.  Let's say BA ranked Joe Smith as the tenth best player, but Smith didn't get picked until pick number 28.  BA will say "team 28 got great value in that pick, getting tenth talent with the 28th pick."   I would put it this way "I guess 17 teams had a different opinion on the value of Joe Smith so BA I think you messed up that evaluation".  Remember how we like our experts... as a society we like experts with strong opinions so we will get definite opinions.  It doesn't mean they are right.

4. And finally on my little rant, there is very little difference between the 12th and 13th pick in a draft so getting excited over one rather than another is silly.

There are a few situations where a team can be criticsed for a pick as the Cubs were for picking Hayden Simpson a few years ago.  But those situations are rare.  We should welcome the new picks into the system and hope they develop into productive major leaguers.

It is great to see that SUNY Buffalo catcher Tom Murphy was drafted by our Blue Jays; especially since I earned my Ph.D. from SUNY Buffalo.   Not that that is important, of course, but it is just nice to see.  He is a srong hitther, good power.  He also has a decent skill-set behind the plate.

Best of luck Tom...welcome to the Blue jays!

Well said. The only thing I would say is that I think it would be interesting to evaluate how well teams do at working around the rules imposed by the new CBA. The draft is (theoretically) about picking the best possible players, and like you said, all analysts can really analyze is how well teams did according to the analysts own rankings, which if anything are probably not as good as those done by the majority of the teams. However, the artificial structure imposed by the new CBA adds another dimension for evaluation; it will be interesting to see how well (if at all) teams take advantage of the rule, and which teams do the best at getting most bang for their buck (admittedly still a subjective thing to measure).

Jays take Chase DeJong in round 2, a tall RH HS pitcher.

I was guessing that we'd see college players with the bonuses rapidly decreasing, but I guess not yet!

It is great to see that SUNY Buffalo catcher Tom Murphy was drafted by our Blue Jays;

?

MatO...my error.  I saw Murphy's name listed and I thought that he was selected by Toronto.  That is what I get for just making a quick glance.  My apologies to the Batter's Box Community.

From what I've heard there is almost a 0% chance of Alford signing... this could be to free up money for Smoral.

Also, Chase DeJong is the cousin of former Jay Jordan DeJong.

Not only was Alford in a very comfortable situation regarding school and his sports future, the new CBA draft rules limit the flexibility that teams have in buying talented dual sport athletes out of their second sport. That situation seems to have changed recently, though. Perfect Game was told this week by a cross checker from a National League team that Alford is “back on the market” amidst talk that the person who issued the “no interest in professional baseball at this time” statement wasn’t authorized to do so and that Alford is now telling scouts he is open to discussions. That is potentially good news for professional baseball, as Alford could develop into a dynamic baseball player if he decided to dedicate himself to the sport full-time.

Donahue's a college senior who sucked in 2012.  Obviously a tactical move.

Punt.

From BA:

After an excellent junior season, Donahue slumped as a senior at Stetson. He had split time between the rotation and bullpen in 2011, but he was a full-time reliever this year. At his best, Donahue has good life on his sinking fastball, which generally sits at 90-92 mph. As a reliever, Donahue doesn't have to rely much on his fringy slider and changeup.

I like Alford for the 3rd round.  If I remember, Norris was supposed to be 100% unsignable last year.  Nice gamble. He is a good athlete

Players have to be registered for the draft.  To be registered you need a track record.  Some teams were reported to have looked at registering their interns but that was rejected by MLB.  That might be a joke but teams have probably looked at such alternatives.

Brad Delatte, LHP, Nichols St.  Another senior reliever taken.  I think the strategy is clear now.  Although maybe Delatte will be good enough for a cup of De coffee.....

The last two picks have slots of $540k.  The Jays will probably sign them for $20k each and use that money elsewhere.

Given the success rate of players beyond the top 50-100 players this is probably the soundest strategy.  Load up on the best players early and then use the money from later picks to sign them.

I haven't been paying attention to other teams.  Is this a common strategy, or unique to the Jays?

If you want to save some cash you have to do it in an early enough round that you save some serious cap room but not too early that you let good quality players go to other teams.   The sweet spot seems to be the fourth or fifth round.  When universal free agency is discussed the opinion appeared to be that the top quality players would get their big dollars but the mid-level guys would not.  That appears to be happending here, teams are making room to pay the players they really want to sign and the rest are getting much less dollars.

You are also seeing the approx cut-off for a HS player to pass on a scholarship.  The Jays could have picked a HS player in the fourth and fifth rounds and paid them the $400k or so but it appears that either that is not enough to keep said player from college or it is not enough to keep a really good HS player from college.

If you exceed $100k after round 10 it counts towards your top 10 round bonus allocation.

For some reason I had $250k in my head.

These are the slots for the Jays' 1-10 round picks

1. $2,000,000
1.  $1,800,000
1S  $1,000,000
1S $884,100
1S $857,200
2. $620,300
3. $424,400
4. $308,700
5. $231,100
6. $173,200
7. $145,000
8. $135,400
9. $126,400
10. $125,000

I find it hard to imagine the Jays can get both Smoral and Alford done... but you never know.

I would think that the Jays aren't just pulling numbers out of a hat - that they have spoken to advisors and have a "sense" of what they would sign for if they went earlier than expected.

Correct me if I'm wrong through, but isn't the signing deadline for college seniors midnight before the next rule 4 draft?

To paraphrase Kramer, from Seinfeld; But they (the Blue Jays) know, and they are the ones making the picks.

I assume the Jays think the have enough to get both done.  This year, with the way the slotting system works, you can't really do an either-or.  If one of them doesn't sign, the money goes back into next years pool, you can't allocate it to the other pick.   You can allocate your savings on below slot picks but you cannot allocate the slot value.

It could come down to a game of chicken between Smoral and Alford's advisors.  They will know the Jays have say $1M in savings on their below slot picks.  They will each want it for their guy.  The Jays might initally try to split it.  But let's say they offer $600k to one player.  If that player takes it then the Jays have only $400k left for player 2.  If player 1 refuses the $600k offer, the Jays could offer that $600k to the other player and then there will be only $400k left for them.  Having two hard to sign players could give the Jays more leverage and it allows them to play off both players advisors against each other.   We will never know details of the negotiations but the late hours of July 13th could be interesting.

On the other hand those players might have let their demands be known and one of them could sign early.

By what percentage can they exceed their bonus allotment without surrendering a pick?  And at what financial penalty (75% up to 5% over, but what beyond that?)

Rounds 4 through 10 of the draft at the Jays' picks - 145, 175, 205 etc. has produced 9 players since 1965 with a career WAR over 5 (10 if you include Texeira who was a 9th rounder out of HS but didn't sign).  That's out of 350-400 total picks.  I'm sure the Jays are aware of that.

ay: Here are the new rules from BA:

Teams that exceed the signing budget by 0-5 percent will pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. Teams that go over by 5-10 percent will pay the same tax and lose a first-round pick in the next draft. Teams that go over by 10-15 percent will pay a 100 percent tax and lose a first- and second-round pick. And finally, teams that go over by more than 15 percent will pay the 100 percent tax and lose their first-round picks in the next two drafts.

re: sam and rfan8

I thought there was a 100k cap on picks after round 10?  I didn't think they could use any money saved from earlier rounds.  Is that not correct?

Or, that's what his personal "Athletic Resume" says at least.

I don't know how badly picks 17, 22, 50, 58, 60 and 81 want to play Professional Baseball now, but they account for $6,304,400.00 of Toronto's $8.830,800.00 budget.   I do know $424,400.00 will not sign pick 112, that I can guarantee.   Top two-sport athletes are all talent and ego, and want to be paid the money to prove it, good luck to A.A. to try.   A.A. needs major mojo magic to sign all these. 

Picks 145, 175, 205, 235, 265, 295 and 325 (courtesy pick - age 24 and a 4-6 year tour in the navy) account for the remaining $2,526,400.00 in the Jays' budget.   I can see them possibly signing for as little as $50,000.00 to $125,000.00 if they want to play Professional Baseball now, or for some, join the economically strained work force as fresh inexperienced rookies.

However, I don't know how badly picks 355, 385, 415, 445 and 475 want to play Professional Baseball, but $100,000.00 each won't cut it.   Where does the money come from?

The first signings will be important, who and how fast indicate A.A's success or failure.

So what rfan8 and I are saying, "well the Jays have clearly created some room in their bonus pool these last five or six picks. That room can either go to the picks prior, namely Alford and Smoral, or it can go to someone selected here after round ten." With Smoral and Alford there's a "free" million and $424,400 respectively to work with (their allotments).

I think this is wrong.  If you don't sign Smoral and Alford, their allotments are removed from your bonus pool.  You don't have a free million and $424k to work with.  You do have the money saved from the underslot signings in rounds 4-10 and that savings can be allocated to high ceiling players after round 10, if you can't use it on Smoral and Alford.

If Davis, Stroman, Nay, Gonzalez, and DeJong all signed at slot, that would leave 2.8M for Smoral and Alford.  I think you would need to be closer to the 3.5-4M range to even have a shot at signing both.

There's also $440k available (5% of pool) by exceeding the allotment prior to losing picks.  The tax is 75% of the overage or $330k, which seems like a small amount to pay to clinch a deal with either of those two players.  Would Smoral take $1.8m and Alford $1.4m?

There aren't "a ton" of first round talent guys left in round 11. That's less a strategy and more wishcasting.

For example, Hunter Vibrant was ranked 53rd by Baseball America and was the highest rated player available in Round 11. The next highest ranked player left, discounting James Winston, since selected was Derick Velasquez at #74. Now, even assuming those ratings by Baseball America are shared by most teams in the industry, which Gerry correctly points out is probably often not the case, the best any team could do would be to draft the 53rd and 64th player and then hope that makes up for the harsh penalties, which seems very, very unlikely.

Excellent work Sam & Kelekin, you made the draft really enjoyable -Though not as exciting as last year, overall I like this draft & the draft strategy - in the AL East the jays need high ceiling talent and since the jays aren't getting it in FA then it's the draft/trade route - hope Davis turns out better than our last foray into speedy outfielder (Eiland/Brisker/Wilson) - a couple of questions

Is there any concern that Davis &b Gonzales were 2 of the 3 oldest HS drafted on day 1 given the studies linking age with future success? 

If Stroman ends up a BP guy as most draft analyst seem to suggest, how much of a disappointment would that be?

Of the HS guys the jays drafted in the 11-15 rds., whom do you like best & if Smoral/Alford take a pass,which of those is likely to command the most money?

Great for top guys and college seniors who might get a little more than in the past but bad for 2nd tier guys.

I'm guessing these college seniors aren't doing better, they're just getting drafted earlier with similiar bonuses.

Although if everyone does that, it opens the door for an interesting deviation: only draft these 2nd tier guys. Save a lot on the 1st pick so you can go over slot all the way down. Maybe pick up 12-15 2nd tier guys. Given the uncertainty surrounding HS players, if you pair that with good scouting, you probably do just as well on average picking 12 2nd tier guys than picking 2-3 1st tier guys. 

Interesting thought, but, at least taking the Jays strategy of starting the senior picks in round 4, you're looking at players outside of the top 100.  That's a lot of lottery tickets without much upside.  Maybe you get a Ryan Roberts type out of it, but Ryan Roberts isn't an expensive player to acquire.

I think that teams are going to have to hire game theorists to help out with these negotiations. The Jays are going to have a significant amount of money to go over slot with thanks to the 7 college seniors; they could just tell Dejong, Smoral and Alford that the first two to sign get the money, and they don't mind eating the pick until net year (they're protected, no?) The Jays would lose that pick's slot money, but if they are $1 million over they would just divide it between 2 players as opposed to 3. There is a loss in value by deferring a pick for a year, but it might be made up for in having that extra pick as it increases a teams pool to work with the following year, which would give the Jays much more flexibility to take high upside tough-sign guys. Then again, they might sign all three. I wonder how this strategy will work in deeper years.

Smoral's pool amount is $1.00 million.  How much over that do the Jays really need to go? 

I think it'll be tough for the Jays to get Alford signed, but I think the rest will all be signed pretty easily.

My guess is Stroman gets slot unless there's some agreement that he pitches in the big leagues this year, in which case he could sign for less and take the major league money as a "bonus."

Very intriguing idea. If the Jays guarantee him September action, that's essentially another 80k, and even more when you consider the value to Stroman of knowing he'll burn an option in 2013.

Please elaborate on what you said about Nay working out exclusively for the Jays. Is this common?

with this CBA, if you sign a guy from the 9th round for say $150 thousand - the entire amount counts against your pool money but if you sign a guy from the 11th round to the same amount, only 50 thousand counts against your pool  - so teams are exploiting this loophole , I expect it will be tackled in the next CBA

How about  SS Kenny Diekroeger - turned down 2mil out of high school - gets drafted in the 4th rd this time, apparently on merit - that's a big hit

Beyonder,

Perhaps - but my understanding is that the pool money a team is allotted is based on the picks it has in the top 10 rounds - starting with the 11th round, that money doesn't count as part of a teams pool money - it's a flat 100 grand for every pick in every round - you are penalized if you pay more than 100 grand with the excess amount counting against your pool money

eg.  your pool amount is 10.5 mil  - pay 150 grand to 9th rounder - entire amount goes against pool amount

                                                        pay 150 grand to 11th rounder  - only excess 50 grand counts against your pool amount   

the flaw is that a teams pool money is only based on the slot amounts for the top 10 rounds.  

If the senior discounts all sign for $10k or less, that would give the Jays $1.17m in extra bonus.

If all picks sign, the Jays could exceed the $8.8m cap by $0.44m and only pay a $0.33m tax (small price to pay, I'd say, especially for Alford). 

So just under $1.6m is available for overslot signs, without consideration of possible underslot signs in the first three rounds.

It will be interesting to see how blatant the Jays get with gaming the system. Theoretically, Donahue and company could be called up in September and make up much of the money that they "lost" when they signed for cheap.  Dirty pool yes, but I don't see anything other than the 40 man roster preventing the Jays from doing so.

That way, teams who may not like a particular year's crop of players have the ability to become more creative and pool their resources.

Well, specifically making any pre-draft or side deals like this is prohibited, I'm pretty sure, and if a team were caught I'm sure they would be punished. Not that that ever stopped anyone.

I think there is a more elegant solution to the draft: instead of having a one year bonus pool, replace it with a five year bonus pool

I read a month or two ago about Scott Boras proposing something like that.

I wonder if, with all this gaming of the system this year, if we'll see a rule adjustment

I'd be surprised if anything changes.  The goal is to keep overall bonuses down and that's being accomplished.  Cheap seniors should have been an obvious strategy to funnel money elsewhere.  If they didn't want money funneled around there would be hard slots. 

Not to mention, it'd have to be something agreed on with the union.

I find it interesting that some people think the current setup has issues.  The big issue should be that bonuses are severely restricted.

Toronto signed 17 High School and 5 J1 (1st year College) picks after the 10th Round.   Some will take the $100 K because they want to play baseball more than anything else.   Seniors taken 4th - 10th rounds (7) and after 27th (3) will sign for whatever is offered to play Professional Baseball, to fill roster openings.   Not signing means Independant Ball or a Job, like us.   The money saved in the 4th - 10th rounds (approximately $1.175 MM) was to be earmarked for signings after 10th round.  

The money saved from underslot signings in first 3 rounds was to sign as many of those first picks as possible.   Reportedly going overslot on Smoral and DeJong (approximately $1.25 MM) means less money for the tougher signs.  Only the unreported picks - Davis, Stroman and Nay - might offer enough savings (approximately $2.0 MM needed) to sign all the first 7 picks.

Even with the over-budget margin of 4.999% (approximately $440 K), there might not be enough to sign as many as we would prefer.  The meat of the draft is the 11th - 25th rounds: 6 LHP; 3 OF; 1 C; 1 2B and 3 SS.   Without them, this draft class is thin.   It is possible to sign everyone they've drafted by going over budget big-time, just don't sign Davis.   You will lose your first round picks in 2013 and 2014 for going over-budget, but you will receive the 18th pick in next year's draft.  The rest is just money.

This site just wiped out 15 minutes of work.

Thank you, I meant drafted not signed.   I stand by my opinion - it is an alternative A.A. might choose.

What you're suggesting is that the Blue Jays go overbudget to sign a bunch of guys who likely aren't as good as the players the team would lose -- D.J. Davis and the likely first round selections in 2013 and 2014. Why would the team have any interest in doing that? They'd be shooting themselves in the foot. To echo what the others have stated here, it isn't something that Anthopoulos will do.

It would require a very... very good draft year to decide to forfeit our picks. I disagree with the notion that AA would never do choose to overspend and forfeit picks: there may very well be years where it is worth doing so.  This, however, is not one of those years.

Re: Alford. 

I think they looked at the value at that slot and decided that it was worth the risk even if there was only a 25% chance of signing him. He also gives them leverage against their other picks (i.e. "Alford has said he will take 1.9... if you turn this offer down we're going to him").

MatO: Exactly my point. Never say never.

 One possibility that I haven't heard discussed (or may have missed) is whether we can arrange a two-sport deal with Alford where he plays short season for us and then goes and plays football in the offseason. Since it isn't requiring him to give up his football dream I would think he'd probably accept a small dollar value. He's just getting a bunch of money to stay in shape in the summer. Its like getting booster money but without the risk.  Is there any reason this can't happen?

I'm wondering if maybe Alford wasn't drafted so that we can sign him above slot, but so we can sign him for below slot.

With Smoral, Gonzales, De Jong supposedly signed, Blue Jays are approximately $1.25 MM overslot. If Nay takes slot, Davis needs to be in at $750 K to balance the budget.

To make it simple, consider picks 17, 50, 58, 60 and 81, but no other picks.   This math is accurate.   I am not cosidering the saving of rounds 4 - 10.   The provision is that if Nay is not an over-slot signing, we are unlikely to get any savings here.    Balance the other signings, the Davis signing needs to save $1.25 MM to balance the Budget.

To sign Alford, needs $2.0 MM at a guess. His slot ($424,400.00), plus a 4.999% over- budget allowance ($441,400.00), plus under-slot savings of 4th - 10th round picks (approximately $1.17 MM) get it done.

To make it simple, consider picks 112, 145, 175, 205, 235, 265, 295 and 325, but no other picks.   This math is accurate,   Alford's slot amount, plus the possible over-budget amount (but not losing a draft pick), plus savings for round 4 - 10 signings meet the $2.0 MM figure.

Any savings made on Stroman's signing permits the signing of extra picks after round 10. That's maximizing value.

To make it simple, consider picks 22, 355 and above, but no other picks.   If you don't go over-slot in signing Stroman, you'll need to be under-slot.   Any picks after the 10th round, not willing to sign for the $100 K, might appreciate those savings.   This is just showing best-case scenario, I'd be surprised if it works.   Of course I won't be the only surprised.