Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 2012 Batter’s Box Blue Jays First Year Player Draft Board

2012 Batter’s Box Blue Jays First Year Player Draft Board

Bauxites sam and Kelekin have stepped in with their predictions for the draft. Thanks guys.

The first year player draft is upon us and what has taken scouts, crosscheckers, the director of amateur scouting, special assistants to the GM, and the GM months and probably years to compile, Kelekin and I have done in a couple days. In fairness, our draft board is only for the Jays’ first couple picks, while the Jays will be working off a board of hundreds of names all personally scouted by staff several times over. For example, Jays’ scout Blake Crosby was reported to have seen every one of Aaron Sanchez’s starts in his draft year. Unfortunately Kelekin and I have not seen these prospects in person, but we have done our youtube research and based a lot of our board off the various scouting reports that circulate on the Internet. We have tried to provide links to each player on our board so readers can formulate their own opinions.

Trying to handicap who the Jays might select is a bit like taking blood from a stone. This will be General Manager Alex Anthopoulos and Director of Amateur Scouting Andrew Tinnish’s second draft together and they have taken with their first pick a “safe” college pitcher who was considered someone who might move fast, and a high school pitcher who was considered a tough sign. In the early rounds the Jays seem to have found a balance between projectable high schoolers and college pitchers who may have fallen for various reasons. It seems like the Jays have had a board and haven’t deviated from that regardless of signability concerns. That board has valued tools and projectability over polish. The Jays have also been unafraid to draft an injured prospect or a prospect with a long track record of success who has faltered in the run-up to the draft. This may change with the new rules.

As has been much discussed in these parts, the new CBA puts strict limits on the bonus amounts clubs dish out to drafted prospects. For the Jays this likely means no more over-slot deals in the later rounds. So a lot of guys who have one or two “first round” tools, but have underdeveloped secondary tools and would have been drafted in the later rounds and been offered first or second round money to sign, these prospects will likely be going to college. For the Jays this would mean no Joe Thon’s or Matt Dean’s. Also, guys who have slipped out of the first round because of injury or signing concerns that the Jays have then gobbled up in the second or third round and then signed to an above slot bonus (I’m looking at you Daniel Norris, John Stilson…) probably will go to, or back to college especially if they believe they’ll improve their chances of being selected higher the next time around. So the talent should match the draft position and we’ve arranged our board along that assumption. We’ve also arranged our board with names the Jays have been reported to be linked to, for whatever that’s worth. We make sure to note this. But mostly, we’ve arranged this board along our own preference for players and players or tools we think the Jays might target. Tall, projectable high school pitchers certainly seem to be the Jays’ cup or tea, as do athletic middle of the field high schoolers. Our list features lots of these. Power, however, seems to be a bit lacking in our system. Like most systems, the Jays seem to be lacking of some true plus power bats. With such a dearth of power in the game at the moment, we expect the Jays to target some of the prospects with plus power potential. With that being said, some of the more successful systems have been those that continue to have pitching heavy drafts. The old adage, “you can never have enough pitching” holds true in our estimation and we expect the Jays to draft their fair share of projectable pitchers. Furthermore, while catching appears to be a strength of the system and the Jays have shied away from using one of their early selections on the position in recent drafts, much of the depth has either graduated or stagnated. We would not be surprised if the Jays “pop” a catcher with one of their early picks.

Our board is unlike a normal draft board. We have listed five prospects we like in the first round and five we like in the supplementary. Tomorrow, or perhaps later on tonight we’ll have some prospects we like in the later rounds up for your consumption and scrutiny.

Here is a link to the official draft order:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2012/order.jsp

Here are some prospect lists (some of these may be behind a pay wall):

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2012/2613410.html

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/17/3024055/2012-mlb-draft-board-5-17-12

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story?id=7901275&_slug_=2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-mark-appel-top-100-2012-draft-prospects&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fstory%3fid%3d7901275%26_slug_%3d2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-mark-appel-top-100-2012-draft-prospects

http://sbb.scout.com/a.z?s=381&p=2&c=1183344&ssf=1&RequestedURL=http%3a%2f%2fsbb.scout.com%2f2%2f1183344.html

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/05/the-final-board/

Some mock drafts (thank you Finch):

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/the-mock/

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2012/2613500.html

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/2012/story?id=7929824&_slug_=mark-appel-goes-no-1-houston-astros-first-mock-draft-mlb&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fdraft%2f2012%2fstory%3fid%3d7929824%26_slug_%3dmark-appel-goes-no-1-houston-astros-first-mock-draft-mlb

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/22/3035675/2012-mlb-mock-draft-40-rounds

A list of prospects with signability questions:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/25/3042924/2012-mlb-draft-players-with-signability-questions

Bonus info:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2012/2613426.html

The general consensus on this year’s batch of draft eligible prospects is they are solid, yet unspectacular. There’s some depth to the draft, but a dearth of high-end tools. As Kelekin duly pointed out to me in our discussions on Lance McCullers Jr., the Jays may as a result target the few players with the primo tools early on because the draft does thin out. In fairness, last year’s crop of draft eligible amateur players were reported to be the best in sometimes with scouts reporting to have never seen 95mph so much. That’s not to say the Jays won’t come away with a couple blue-chippers, but prospects possessing major league tools may dry up in this draft a lot sooner than usual.

Here is our draft board. The prospects for each round are not ranked.

Round One

Joey Gallo 3B/1B/RHP HS Nevada

Gallo and the Jays is a popular link with internet types and media outlets. The reasoning follows the Jays are interested in toolsy high schoolers, which Gallo is most certainly, and they have a lack of power and corner infielders in the system. Enter Gallo. It’s hard to fault this thinking. Gallo possesses premium tools (in particular raw power), is fairly athletic, and will likely sign if selected in the first round. The Jays don’t necessarily have that premium power prospect in the minor leagues either, but then again so don’t most teams and power is the most difficult tool to project. Drafting an eighteen year old certainly doesn’t guarantee filling an organizational hole, but true power potential doesn’t grow on trees and when it does come along you take notice.

Gallo is a two-way player out of the relatively new baseball hot-bed of Nevada. He is a left-handed hitting corner infielder with reported plus power potential (some reports have him as plus-plus potential.) He is also of a 95mph fastball. He is an athletic 6’5 220, running a 7.24 60. Gallo’s potential to hit in the middle of a ML order likely means teams will look at him as a position prospect ahead of a pitcher. Defensively there are some questions of overall range that may ultimately see Gallo pushed to first base as he further matures physically.

Gallo has an upright hitting stance starting his hands high at ear level. He drops his hands into a good hitting position as the pitcher delivers the ball and seems to be relatively direct to the pitched baseball. There’s not much fuss to the overall swing—he picks up his front foot slightly and has a slight stride to the pitcher. It is a swing with some length and upper-cut to it, but undeniable speed and violence. It is not hard to see a ML first basemen when watching video of Gallo. He gets good extension on the baseball and is reported to put on impressive batting practices. On this point I wonder if the Jays would go after Gallo. Gallo is perhaps your classic showcase player. Tall and athletic, he passes all the visual tests. In a controlled environment he can simply overwhelm a scout. Towering homeruns in batting practice and an excellent arm across the diamond in infield practice and warm ups will have many scouts, crosscheckers, and directors impressed and ready to grade him out as a first round talent. There are reported questions whether Gallo will hit enough to tap into that power. One of the benefits of having more scouts, the Jays have an opportunity to see more of Gallo, especially outside of the showcase loop. I imagine the Jays have had multiple people to see Gallo. Moreover, the Jays have since shied away from prospects in the early rounds who seem likely destined for first base.

There is some bust potential to Gallo and a team with few selections in the first or supplementary round may as a result pass on Gallo. Gallo will surely be a first day pick. Drafted any later, it is likely Gallo will honour his commitment to LSU.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=257854

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://brewersrumors.com/tag/joey-gallo-scouting-report/

(many will note the sound of the ball off the bat of Gallo and the audience Gallo draws during batting practice.)

http://diamondprospects.blogspot.ca/2011/08/joey-gallo-draft-profile.html

Lance McCullers Jr. RHP HS Florida

Opinions seem to vary on the long-term future of McCullers Jr. He is a high school right hander out of Florida and has been on the amateur baseball circuit for some time. In part, that might be McCullers problem—overexposure. Excessive viewings and playing, especially in the over-heated Florida baseball scene and showcase events can provide perhaps too much opportunity for criticism. (Note: Seeing a prospect often is never a bad thing. The well-known Florida prospects though tend to play year round and this can lead to some burnout and blunting of physical and baseball development. John Sickels recently posted a feature on Florida high school pitchers drafted in the first round and their long-term ML success and the numbers aren’t too pretty. McCullers too has been on the showcase circuit for some time as well and I doubt a month, let alone a few weeks have gone by since he turned 16 in which a scout has not seen him play.) The raw product—a plus fastball, a plus slider, a plus competitive streak, and excellent bloodlines put McCullers into the equation at no. 1, and indeed he was in consideration at no. 1 a season back. However, McCullers delivery is with serious effort and reports suggest he struggles to command his pitches, although Keith Law recently noted that McCullers has shown well this spring and has moved up draft boards. So is he a high leverage bullpen arm or can he start, and does he have front-line potential? He is not overly physical either, coming in at 6’2 205, and what you see is probably what you get in terms of long-term physical projection.

There is no denying the arm speed and electricity of the stuff. McCullers’ is more of a drop and drive type pitcher, slightly turning his shoulders away from the batter before unleashing the ball at a ¾ arm slot. Again, the arm speed is perhaps unlike any other in this draft and would hold up to any other prospect drafted in past drafts. He gets really good reach and extension with the arm, but the problems with the delivery do stem from his upper body. There seems to be some overall inconsistency with the delivery in terms of shoulder rotation and arm slot, but I imagine from a scouting standpoint you’d say he’s got the arm speed and pitches to be frontline and he’s athletic enough to make the adjustments. But that delivery, I’ve seen several videos and each one has a different delivery. He’s the type of guy I think might excel in the Jays’ minor league pitching program. Slowing him down for a year letting him adjust to new mechanics without the pressure of the draft year I think might pay dividends down the road. The arm strength is certainly there so it’s not a matter of letting his body develop and acquire that velocity, but playing the amount of baseball he has at the somewhat break-neck speed of showcase events and high school ball can take it’s toll.

Like Gallo’s power potential, high schoolers who have reported to touch 100mph and sit mid-90s do not come around very often. Furthermore, ones with excellent mound presence, a plus secondary offering, and great bloodlines (father played in the Bigs), are just as rare. I think, however, what you can say from a scouting standpoint is there is probably an arm injury in there waiting to happen. A kid his size and age, throwing as violently as he does probably does not project out too well long term. The wear and tear too of playing in Florida and the likelihood that he’s probably maxed out physically all point to some near-future arm/shoulder issues. For those on the Florida amateur circuit I’m sure a name like Bobby Seay might come up as a prospect with just unbelievable stuff, but someone physically developed and ahead of anyone his age with significant mileage on the arm before college or pro ball. I do think the Jays will kick the tires on McCullers, but those guys who have peaked as early as he has tend to break down. I think these are things we should consider before we start slotting him into the 2015 rotation.

If mock drafts are a thing you believe in, McCullers and the Jays is a forgone conclusion. Largely the reasoning seems that the Jays like upside and there are questions to his game that a team with one selection in the first round or early on might shy away from. He’s a Florida commit and a Scott Boras kid and if he falls out of the first round he probably doesn’t make it to our supplementary picks, and if he does there’s no guarantee of him signing. His father seems to be of the Dickie Thon school of bargaining so do expect his potential signing to play out in the media. It sounds like there is some expectation that McCullers deserves top 10 money.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=186289

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://diamondprospects.blogspot.ca/2011/07/lance-mccullers-draft-profile.html

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/5/27/3046283/2012-mlb-draft-profile-lance-mccullers-jr-tampa-bay-fl

Matt Smoral LHP HS Ohio

Smoral has an injured foot right now and if you read the attached interview it’s fair to surmise he’s been injury prone over his high school years. Foot injuries for 6’8 225 pound eighteen year olds do not spell well for a future of clean health and as an English soccer fan I can tell you that metatarsals are notoriously difficult to heal and predict. But, with all that unpleasantness out of the way Smoral is an excellent pitching prospect that in the old system would have been an ideal mid-round draft and follow and potential eleventh hour signing for first round money.

We live in a new draft world and Smoral as mentioned is a huge risk in the first round. He does, however, possess a lot of what you look for in a high school pitching prospect. Smoral is a big, physically imposing left-hander out of Ohio. He has a quick arm and for a kid of his size and length manages to keep all the parts together in a fairly clean delivery. The fastball is reported to work in the high 80’s-low 90s, with reports that it can get up to 95mph. He throws it from a ¾ arm slot with fairly good deception and some arm side run, although not with the jump some would like to see. With the size and delivery it does play up. He’s free and easy and has the frame to put a little more oomph on so it wouldn’t be beyond reason to expect that fastball to work low to mid-90s down the road. The slider is legit wipeout from what I’ve seen on video and reports online. Northern pitchers are particularly attractive to scouting directors, as it’s believed their arms have less wear and tear than players in any of the warmer baseball hotbeds of Florida, Texas, and California. I blame John Smoltz. I remember part of the allure of Mark Rogers a few years back was just that. In a day and age where kids are playing year round regardless of environment in indoor facilities, travel tournaments and such, I’m not sure this is necessarily the case, but who am I to mess with baseball scouting lore. Smoral does come from some athletic bloodlines as his father played some D-1 basketball and by all accounts seems to be a fairly athletic kid, which bodes well for future projection and adjustment. We all love to make comparisons so here is mine for Smoral. He has Chris Sale stuff in Brian Tallet’s body.

Smoral will be an interesting one to follow. That size, stuff, left-handedness does not come along often and three healthy years at North Carolina (where he’s committed to) will certainly put him in the conversation for no. 1 come draft time 2015. The injury really does complicate things. Do you draft him with one of the first round picks and hope come July the foot has healed enough for him to pass a medical. Prospects usually don’t let teams medically evaluate them prior to the draft so I’m sure the Jays have engaged in a fair bit of medical projection themselves. Ultimately I think he’s a difficult talent to pass up and if you do draft him and he signs he probably doesn’t play this summer and you then you hope a summer, fall, and winter of rest means he comes to Spring Training the following year with a clean bill of health and ready to start developing at that point.

http://www.maxpreps.com/news/vPQqeORIO0C9WdrGFAIOQQ/matt-smoral-not-letting-foot-injury-slow-baseball-career-down.htm

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=256725

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.ca/2012/05/profiles-of-top-22-pitchers-for-2012_25.html

Marcus Stromen RHP Duke

Stromen is a smallish right-handed pitcher, who just this season took up pitching full-time. A lot of where Stroman gets drafted will be whether teams view him as a high leverage reliever or starter. I think the size thing maybe gets overblown. Yes, Stroman is 5’9 180, but the league has seen pitchers with that size succeed and Stroman does have fantastic stuff. He has started this season, whereas in the past he has worked out of the bullpen, and has reported to maintain a mid-90s fastball with excellent command deep into starts, sometimes touching upper nineties, to go along with an above average mid-80s slider. The changeup is well behind these two pitches. The two pitches are definitely there then to pitch in a major league bullpen and then you hope the minor league people can coax that third pitch out of the fella to pitch in a rotation somewhere. Stroman is athletic and seems to pitch like an infielder—get the ball and throw, so there might be some overall work to be done getting him into that starter’s mentality, but you bank on that raw stuff. There’s not much electricity in the pitching ranks this draft year and Stroman is one of the few with “it.” My uneducated eyes don’t see much wrong with the overall delivery, but I wouldn’t bank on him throwing harder just because he has professional instruction and because he’s now dedicated exclusively to pitching. I think the overall repertoire though might be a bit more refined with the instruction and perhaps playing professional baseball.

Again it seems with every “type” of amateur prospect in the draft with the new CBA people are interested to see what will happen and how teams may prioritize their package and quickness to the big leagues over others. As a reliever, Stroman might be able to pitch in a big league bullpen sometime this year, although the long term track record of those guys is not very good, which oddly enough has never really deterred teams. In the past, a team might take Stroman in the first round because he’ll be quick to the big club, and then go after the “prospect,” who might take some time to develop and demand a significant signing bonus with later picks in the mid-rounds. Teams can’t do that to the same effect anymore. So do teams with few picks early on still go after Stromen? I don’t know. The Jays, however, have several early picks and I think Stromen perhaps offers that balance between the high school prospects the Jays are sure to take early on and have taken in past drafts that do take time to physical mature and develop. As well, power pitching is the name of the game and Stroman offers one of the better packages of fastball-slider in the draft.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.ca/2012/05/profiles-of-top-22-pitchers-for-2012_27.html

http://mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com/2011/12/01/marcus-stromen-rhp-duke/

Clint Coulter C HS Washington

I think before day one is over the Jays pop a catcher. Where the Jays select in the first round and recent links to Stryker Trahan (a HS catcher out of Louisiana) may suggest that this is too high for where Coulter has been rumoured to go. Nonetheless, I think there is a lot to like in Coulter and his tools suggest he could be moved off the position if need be. Coulter is a big fella. If you were to tell me he was 22 and a college senior I probably wouldn’t argue with you. He is 6’3 215 of muscle and athleticism. He is a high school wrestler and from video it looks like he carries that athleticism and agility onto the baseball diamond. He receives the most plaudits for his bat. He has a nice, short swing that generates significant power. There are grades floating around the Internet of a 70 future power tool. The hit tool itself apparently is quite impressive, with the ability to use all fields and a good overall approach. Defensively he is raw, but again not without premium tools. Reports are that it is a plus arm with carry and with good overall athleticism behind the plate. There are no real red flags and the bat seems to play at a corner infield position if need be. Running is not a strength of his, but the internet does not seem to think he’ll be a “clogger” down the road. Coulter is a big guy so what you see might be what you get. The other fear with overly physical high schoolers is their overall agility and strength will fall off as they grow older. John Tolisano, for example, put on a lot of muscle weight his senior year and that reportedly scared a few teams off. The wrestling thing really helps Coulter and he seems to be one of those rare guys who are able to carry that girth and remain incredibly athletic and agile.

Coulter has a commitment to Arizona State University, but should be a guy who signs if drafted day one. For a guy his size I’m not sure going to college is necessarily the right thing. If anything, questions whether the body will be able to handle catching long term will be louder and the chances of improving his stock might not be the same as a Smoral or Lucas Giolito. At the moment, his value is extremely high as offensive catchers who look to stick at the position are incredibly valuable.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=283223

http://mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com/2012/05/28/clint-coulter-c-union-hs-wa/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUBfsHkdBWU

Supplementary Round

J.O. Berrios RHP HS Puerto Rico

It’s a big year for Puerto Rico and Berrios is one of a number of high-end prospects out of the unincorporated island. Berrios is a smallish right-hander, coming in at 6’1 187. He is also one of the youngest prospects in the draft. He has a nice looking frame, which has already started to fill out (some would say filled out completely.) As a result, there are some questions about long-term projectability. Berrios has nice delivery, but tends to get out in front of himself and not staying tall on the mound. He has a quick arm and has improved his draft stock this spring with a concerted effort to add strength. While the velocity right now reportedly varies from start to start, he can be up to 97mph with the fastball and in the low 80s with a power curveball. I think you’re looking at a guy as he climbs that will sit 92-95 with the fastball. There are the usual questions about overall command with high school prospects, but reports suggest he wants to play pro ball so look for him to sign early with whoever takes him early on. You gamble on the raw stuff, frame, and overall athleticism.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=285960

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://riveraveblues.com/2012/05/2012-draft-j-o-berrios-69311/

http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/jo-berrios.html

Victor Roache OF Georgia Southern

Roache broke his wrist this spring and has not played much recently as a result. Last year he hit 30 homeruns in college despite the NCAA switch to new, less bouncy bats. That wrist injury though is like a shoulder injury for a pitcher. You really don’t know how they’re going to come back from it. Even optimistically I don’t think you can still say he has 70 power—as some reports out of the Cape Cod League last summer had him. Power is the calling card and Roache does have plenty of it. Roache is a big, athletic corner outfielder standing 6’1 225. He has a very quick bat and while there are some real concerns whether he can hit for average and has shown ugly tendencies to chase bad pitches, you do bank on that quickness to make some adjustments and hope to hit for some average going forward. Roache might put some muscle on before all is said and done, but defensively he’s somewhat limited by average speed and range. Good overall actions and instincts play up as does a strong arm that reportedly plays in RF, but don’t expect gold gloves in his future. Roache might be a guy Batter’s Box viewers should have a look at. Do viewers like what they see in video prior to the injury? Is he worth a supplemental pick? Teams really value power and all it takes is one team that believes he regains that power potential. He probably signs somewhere in the first two or three rounds.

Jesmuel Valentin SS HS Puerto Rico

Valentin is the son of former big leaguer Jose Valentin. The younger Valentin is a switch-hitting, slick-fielding, middle infield prospect with some potential to hit for average. He is an all-around solid draft prospect—the type of player who will do a lot to help a team win down the road. Some boards have him listed as a second base prospect as well, as Valentin was forced off SS by teammate and likely high first round pick Carlos Correa, but most reports suggest Valentin will have no problem handling SS long-term. The actions in the field look good and the arm apparently is plenty strong enough to handle the position. At the plate he is reported to be a legitimate switch hitter with contact ability and some natural loft to the swing(s). Reports are that he looks better right handed, but in limited video the left handed swing does not look too shabby either. He does not have “wow” bat speed, but it’s a solid swing with good tempo. While not a plus-plus runner, he consistently runs sub 7 second 60s with solid all-around baseball awareness, which would lead you to project some twenty steal seasons down the line. Once again, a very solid high school baseball prospect. He’s listed at 5’10 180 with fairly broad shoulders. He’ll get a bit bigger, but he does already have some muscle on the frame so don’t get too ahead of yourself projecting all sorts of power and physical development. Valentin is an LSU commit and that does complicate things, but the general experience with sons of former ball players is if drafted high enough they tend to sign.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=286369

http://macksmets.blogspot.ca/2012/04/matt-grabusky-jesmuel-valentin-2012.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Sf8lAW9TwY

http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/jesmuel-valentin.html

Duane Underwood RHP HS Georgia

There seems to be a lot of online skepticism with Underwood. He is everything you look for in a high school pitching prospect. He has size at 6’2 185 and room for more. Raw stuff with a fastball up to the high-90s and plus secondary offerings. He is athletic, has a quick arm, comes from a renowned baseball area in Georgia and is reported to have shown an idea of how to pitch. The bright lights of draft year, however, have not been kind to Underwood. There are questions about his ability to maintain velocity deep into starts (with reports that he was working at 87mph this spring), as well as significant questions about control and command. The secondary offerings apparently come and go just as frequently. He is the type of prospect that you do have to dream on, but one that a team with scouting resources will have had multiple people and multiple viewings of. Underwood has reportedly fallen down draft boards and is now one of those prospects that might just go to college if he’s not selected in the first couple rounds. He is committed to Georgia. He might be a guy like Aaron Sanchez who you draft and forget about for two years (as a fan), and come 2014 he’s lighting up the Midwest league.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=250831

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/5/29/3050867/2012-draft-prospects-preview-duane-underwood

http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/duane-underwood.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/05/what-to-do-with-duane-underwood/

Shane Watson RHP HS California

The Jays will draft a projectable high school pitcher from California. I guarantee you that. I’ve listed Shane Watson here, but it just as well could be Chase DeJong, Paul Blackburn, Kyle Twomey, or even Hunter Virant (the ladder two of the left-handed pitchability variety). Freddy Avis seems destined to go to Stanford, and while the names mentioned above all have commitments to major college programs on the west coast, the internet industry consensus seems to be that all will sign if selected in the first couple rounds. Watson is a projectable, 6’4 195 right hander out of the Los Angeles area. He has featured a low-90s fastball with reported late life and has shown mid-90s here and there. He is a high-waisted athletic kid with a good frame and lots of room for physical development. He’s got a good, clean arm with the consensus being there’s more velocity down the line. Granted the picture of Watson on MLB.com has Watson in the dreaded W pitching position. The curveball according to some is legit wipeout and one of the better ones in the class. Watson is a good pitching prospect with lots to dream on.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=299710

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

http://riveraveblues.com/2012/06/2012-draft-shane-watson-69552/

Kelekin and I are working on our “board” and will have more potential mid-round draft picks to you before the draft resumes tomorrow.

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A big thanks goes out to sam and Kelekin for some great work here.

Posted by Gerry on Monday, June 04 2012 @ 03:14 PM EDT.

2012 Batter’s Box Blue Jays First Year Player Draft Board | 82 comments | Create New Account

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Forkball - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#257718) #

Unless it's part of a discounted pick (which it possibly could be?), I don't see the Jays taking Stroman. Just about all the pitchers they draft now are 6'4" and up (not to mention the willingness to trade Collins), and a reliever isn't the type of high upside player they generally go for (although they have taken some probability starting college pitchers in round 1).

Nice job compiling all of this. It'll be good to see it happening for real shortly.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#257719) #

Thank you Gerry and the Batter's Box crew for posting this. I realize the spelling and grammatical mistakes and do apologize for them. There are also no links for Victor Roache.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DWHYiRyU7k

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/05/18/scouting-report-victor-roache-of/

http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=479:victor-roache-scouting-report

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

MatO - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#257720) #

Milb's mock draft has the Jays taking Damien Magnifico out of Oklahoma with the 112th pick. Let's hope that happens. That's a 1st overall name. Imagine the headlines for the minor league reports.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#257723) #

Forkball, I think you're right about Stroman (sorry for the inconsistent spelling). The Jays have stuck to their guns on tall projectable pitchers these past two drafts. The Giants have had a similar philosophy when it comes to drafting pitching, but they made an exception for Tim Lincecum. Stroman is not Tim Lincecum, but teams do make exceptions and Stroman has high end tools in a draft short on big time tools. I think it would be wrong to pigeonhole Stroman and the Jays and completely write-off the chances.

A lot also will come down to scout John Hendricks, who received the organizations Al Lamacchia award last year. Hendricks, who came on as an area scout a couple years back, covers the Carolina's and the ACC and the Jays have selected a substantial amount of college prospects out of the area in the past couple years. The Jays seem to really trust his evaluations. Hendricks might be a name to watch going forward as someone who rises up the ranks in the amateur department.

92-93 - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#257725) #

Gallo reminds me a lot of Troy Glaus (from the left side) in terms of his body type, stance, and swing follow through.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#257726) #

92-93, I think that's a good comp. Hard to make these kind of projections with high schoolers though. No word whether he's looking for $250,000 a year for his girlfriend's horse riding career.

Gerry - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#257727) #

I checked the mock drfats from Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein and Jim Callis.

From sam and kelekin's five favourites for the Jays, Callis has the Jays taking Gallo at 22. The other 2 mocks have Gallo gone at 11.

Goldstein has the Jays taking McCullers and he is not shown in the other two. It seems that his demands might price him out of the draft.

Goldstein also has the Jays taking Coulter with their second pick. In the other two mocks, Coulter lasts until 27.

Stroman is generally available but the three mocks don't have the Jays taking him. And all three mocks see Smoral going at pick 29.

In summary, if the Jays are locked in on McCullers, Coulter, Smoral or Stroman, they have a very good chance of landing them.

Gallo looks to be gone before the Jays pick.

Law has the Jays taking Cecchini and Davis. BA has the Jays on Giolito in addition to Gallo.

85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#257730) #

If the Jays take Gallo/Roache with either of their first 2 picks, I'll be disappointed.

Gerry - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#257734) #

Just noticed this from KLaw:

TD (PA)

What is Victor Roaches status and likely draft range?

Klaw

(3:48 PM)

Can't imagine he's picked today after the wrist injury and a rough summer on the Cape.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#257736) #

Thanks for this Gerry. I saw Law's comments and I think he might be a bit out to lunch with his comments re: Cape Cod league. Roache led, or was near the top of all offensive statistical categories this summer. There are numerous reports of a strong Cape season for Roache, so "rough summer" may be a bit strong.

Gwyn - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#257738) #

This is terrific stuff guys, thanks for doing it.

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#257739) #

If we could get both McCullers and Gallo, I'd be in heaven.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#257740) #

Kelekin, I too would be more than happy with those two picks in the first round.

I know you and I may disagree on this point, but there are a number of power bats (perhaps not with the same upside) that presumably could be had from rounds 2-5. Do you suspect that the Jays may get to 22 with Gallo on the board still and say someone like Smoral or one of the high school pitchers still available and say, "well, we like Gallo and we really like Smoral, but we can get Trey Williams, Rio Ruiz, Adam Brett Walker, Carson Kelly, Keon Barnum, Fernando Perez, Preston Tucker a bit later. Let's get the pitcher into our system and take our chances with one of those guys in the supplemental or second round."

Just based on how the Jays have drafted in the past two years, the pitcher always seems to trump that bat.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#257741) #

By the way, if people are looking for prospects here that will likely sign early and below slot recommendations, yet are still considered prospects with some upside, take a look at Fernando Perez out of JuCo in Central Arizona. He is a high schooler playing JuCo ball and putting up some nice numbers. He's got some tools and traditionally the kids who try to get out of high school quickly do so to get drafted. I don't think the Jays go the college senior route to save slot money, but Perez has lots of upside so keep an eye out for him.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/6/3/3060230/2012-mlb-draft-profile-fernando-perez-3b-central-arizona-cc

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#257742) #

Kevin Goldstein is saying that Courtney Hawkins has potential to fall. He is a high school kid out of Texas with power potential and a very good arm. I would have serious reservations of drafting him. Hawkins is apparently a really good kid who worked hard to lose weight. As a fifteen year old he weighed over 300 pounds. He's now 6'2 210 and his fairly developed at 18. That weight, however, might come creeping back into the conversation as he grows. Moreover, there are some flags with the swing and how the hands work. Reports are he's dead pull at the moment and it doesn't look like he has much feel for letting the ball travel in the zone.

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#257743) #

I would like to see us take power-potential bats; with power becoming more and more sparse in the minor leagues, finding players with huge power is becoming harder to find. I'm still upset that we weren't able to get Kris Bryant signed (who could easily be a 1st rounder next year) two years back. These types of bats are hard to come by, regardless of positional value.

Thomas - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#257746) #

Mark Appel finally goes off the board to the Pirates at #8. Some mock drafts had the Pirates selecting Dahl, so if you're a fan of what you read about him, maybe he'll fall down the board.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#257749) #

At this point, it looks like Giolito will be in play at 17. It'll be a gamble, but there is protection should the Jays fail to sign him. I wouldn't jeopardize the entire draft though and take signability guys the rest of the way. Slot is $2 million. The Jays could probably find upwards of $500,000 and not significantly risk the overall drafted talent. If he turns it down there's always next year.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#257750) #

Watch out for Richie Shaffer as well.

ayjackson - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#257751) #

My thoughts exactly.

ayjackson - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#257752) #

crap

hypobole - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#257753) #

Giolito or Shaffer will be available, with only the Nats to pick. For some reason, I don't think the Jays pick will be either.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#257755) #

The Nationals have roughly $4.5 to spend this draft. I don't know how they make this work.

Thomas - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#257756) #

The Jays select high-school OF D.J. Davis.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#257757) #

Davis is a solid pick and a special athlete. The Jays likely felt he was not going to be available at 22. They may have also created some room here too as Davis, who has a college commitment to JuCo will perhaps sign for less than slot.

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#257758) #

I don't understand how McCullers is on the board. If we don't get him with this pick though, we certainly won't be getting him.

Gerry - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#257761) #

sam and kelekin, you got one of your guys in Stroman.

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#257762) #

I never personally judge a player by size, and Stroman would've been my #2 pick at that spot. Whether he sticks as a starter is the question, but he definitely has the potential. Worst case scenario, high-leverage reliever.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#257763) #

Stroman might divide a lot of Jays fans, especially those who have some difficulty looking past the size and what was on the board. McCullers would have been a real nice pick and I still wouldn't rule him out in the supplementary as the Jays are one of couple teams who have created some room here with their first round picks in what they might be able to offer guys later on in the draft.

I know people might be thinking we'll see Stroman sometime this summer in Toronto, but unless there's some sort of handshake agreement (like Sale), I think the Jays develop him as a starter and play the long game with him. Canadians fans might see him in Vancouver this summer.

hypobole - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#257764) #

Cup half full - they got BA's #10 and #20 draft prospects at 17 and 22.
Cup half empty - they just drafted Rajai Davis and Jason Frasor.

scottt - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#257765) #

Davis is a high risk, high reward athlete with 80 speed.

If a guy falls too much, he easily becomes unsignable.

neurolaw - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#257766) #

First things first the Nats really screwed the Jays!

But I think Stroman was an interesting pick. From how Jim Callis has described Stroman it sounds like AA wanted someone that has 2 plus pitches and he could put straight into AA and be up with the big club by 2012.

I can't imagine that he is thrilled with the lack of progress that Jenkins and Mcguire have made and with the Lansing rotation still far away maybe Stroman is there to bridge the gap?

Its all conjecture - the draft is a crapshoot and who really knows?

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#257767) #

Well put hypobole.

ayjackson - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#257768) #

I doubt the Jays fast track Stroman as a reliever. They saved Brandon Morrow from a similar fate.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#257769) #

It's getting to that point in the draft that we'll start to see a real run on high schoolers as teams will look to get guys drafted in spots that may just be too enticing for them to pass up.

Gerry - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#257770) #

I would guess that getting Rajai Davis out of the #17 pick would be about average. A lot of middle first rounders don't have as long a career as Rajai has had.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#257771) #

Here is video of one of Stroman's more recent starts. You see a power fastball-slider combo, with very good command and action on the breaking ball. He features the changeup a couple times to little effect. His fastball command during this start was erratic and he seemed to work 92-95.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1L-qqJ5ZNw

Ryan Day - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#257772) #

Getting 500+ MLB games from Stroman would be a fair achievement, too.

bpoz - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#257773) #

DJ...Shannan Stewart. Stroman becoming T Gordon is OK with me. Big guys like R Johnson, J Niemann & J Rauch....N Syndergaard.

greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#257774) #

Davis did have a 305/360/423 season with 41 SB (108 OPS+) in 2009. Unfortunately he hasn't been able to match or surpass that promising year.

I'm OK with the Jays' selections. I'm intrigued by DJ Davis - I was kind of hoping for Giolito or Seager, but Davis looks like he could be a good, toolsy CF. Let's see what the Jays' minor-league coaching staff can do with him. Stroman is kind of a nifty extra pick that has the folks at BA going gaga. Of course, if the Jays really wanted someone quick to the majors, maybe they should have been more aggressive with Darvish (ERA+ 138) in the off-season? Oh yeah, parameters...

neurolaw - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#257775) #

Sam - Just before the Jays picked Stroman I heard Jonathan Mayo say he was at 96-97 in the 8th inning. Is that an exaggeration of his FB?

Over at minorleagueball Matt Garrioch had really high praise for him and thinks he has the upside of a #2 which is pretty good if you ask me.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/13/2943516/draft-prospect-of-the-day-marcus-stroman

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#257776) #

Some interesting names still on the board. Wonder what chances are we pop Barrett in the supplemental?

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#257777) #

I haven't watched him in person or seen a radar gun on him that late in games so I can't speak to the veracity of that report. I think those velo readings are certainly there in the arm from the video I've seen. I mean he has a quick arm and some real competitiveness to do that. Touching high-90s that late in the game is impressive, but don't expect him to sit there as a starter. In his starts he seems to be most comfortable at 92-95. Stroman is one of the rare pitchers in this draft with some real electricity to his game. No. 2 starter though means he develops a real good change up and maybe starts to tail or sink the ball a bit better. What you see right now is a fairly raw plus fastball and more developed plus slider with a good competitive streak. The optimist may see no.2 and he would set a bit of a precedent as a no. 2 starter, but he has two plus pitches and the competitiveness you need to be frontline, but the third pitch and overall command will have to be improved upon and due to his size people might scoff at no. 2 until he puts together a couple 150 plus innings at the minor league/major league level.

sam - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#257778) #

I think McCullers goes to Houston here

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#257780) #

No Gallo...Adam Brett Walker would be an intriguing pick for power potential.

92-93 - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#257781) #

I really hope the Jays scouts think Marcus Stroman can remain a starter; don't like selecting relievers in the first round.

greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#257782) #

Correa and McCullers for Houston...pretty nice haul at picks #1 and 41, if they can get McCullers signed.

ayjackson - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#257783) #

I really hope the Jays scouts think Marcus Stroman can remain a starter; don't like selecting relievers in the first round.

Is there really any doubt?

He'll sign, head to Dunedin and work on his changeup and command.

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#257784) #

For the first comp pick, my hopes would be one of Smoral, Walker, or Barrett.

hypobole - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#257785) #

per Klaw, "the Jays could attempt to teach Stroman a two-seamer to create more sink on his heater and use him as a starter."

Gerry - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#257786) #

Smoral makes it two of three for you guys.

greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#257787) #

Great job, sam and kelekin. Thanks for making draft night more enjoyable.

Kelekin - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#257788) #

Gonzales is an intriguing pick. Nay seems less exciting, even as a power bat.

There are some interesting names left and I am quite looking forward to tomorrow.

uglyone - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#257789) #

I think I like all the picks.

Stroman is my favorite pick of the day, I think. The only thing that seems to have held him back from being one of the top pick sin the draft is his height.

Davis I think is my least favorite pick of the day. Not an awful pick but he seems like a guy with Shannon Stewart / Rajai Davis upside in the best case scenarios, and that's not exactly the upside I was hoping for that high in the draft (though it does seem like they were saving money for later picks).

I like the sounds of Gonzales and Nay, and Smoral...well, Smoral is really tall.

ayjackson - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#257790) #

Coming in, I had low expectations that we could sign our first five picks. But four of them seem quite signable at first blush, which should free some cash for the fifth, Matt Smoral.

Pretty good Day 1.

whiterasta80 - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#257791) #

I think I'm comfortable with all of the picks. I'd have liked to see us pick up a MI prospect this draft after passing on Wong last year, but we added elite speed and plus power potential in the early rounds along with our customary high ceiling pitching prospects.

whiterasta80 - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#257792) #

Sorry, to clarify I do know we still have a shot at some decent MI prospects tomorrow. But really I was looking for an early high ceiling candidate (Marrero comes to mind).

TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#257793) #

Nay was rumored to go late to the Yankees if Hensley was off the board. Add to that his approach change which gave him that helium and i'd say he's a very exciting pick.

TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#257794) #

Marrero isn't exactly a ceiling guy. No one much liked that pick for the Red Sox(Or their other first round pick for that matter)

92-93 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#257795) #

Saying the only thing holding Stroman back from going higher was his height is like saying the only thing holding back Cecil from being an ace is a 70 fastball.

Without a commitment to a good D-I school DJ Davis may be easier to sign, saving money for Smoral & Gonzales.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#257796) #

"Saying the only thing holding Stroman back from going higher was his height is like saying the only thing holding back Cecil from being an ace is a 70 fastball."

No, it's entirely different.

Stroman throws 98mph, and has a killer slider and a good change. Those are real things he can do with the baseball. His height doesn't stop him from doing any of those things. Being 6'2" doesn't help Cecil to do any of those things, either.

and in anticipation of a snarky reply, here's some reading material: http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#257797) #

Thank you for the compliments. Kelekin and I will be hard at work trying to get you some names we like for the Jays in tomorrow's portion of the draft.

The Jays got some guys with some real nice tools in today's portion of the draft. After taking two of the smaller players in the draft the Jays with one of the bigger ones in Smoral. Smoral's potential signing will go down to the wire and I'm sure the Jays will now have people in to check his health. In Smoral though, you get in my estimation one of the real boom or bust guys in the draft. The potential is there to front a rotation, while the injury issues mean he's just as likely to flame out in A-ball. In D.J. Davis you have a guy with Anthony Gose type speed and a good looking approach and swing to be a leadoff guy and solid defensive outfielder down the road. Stroman, who fans will perhaps be most interested in, has two legitimate plus pitches, some competitiveness and athleticism who could be anything from a very good backend bullpen arm to someone who features somewhere in a good rotation and perhaps breaks down some barriers for smallish pitchers. I had Mitch Nay as someone the Jays might target on day two of the draft if they went after pitching exclusively in the first and supplementary rounds, but Hay has some power potential and a really nice frame. I think AA really trusts the amateur people and the work they do especially since reports are that he did not get a chance to see Stroman pitch in the person. To draft a 5'9 pitcher in the first round without seeing him says a lot of the trust he has in his amateur people. That takes balls. Nay also as he missed the showcase circuit this year and for high school hitters like Nay scouts do like to see how these guys play against better competition and how they look side-by-side. The Jays likely haven't had many viewings of Nay against better competition and to draft him here says a lot about what they think of Nay and his longterm future. I know people here might think of Matt Dean from last year's draft. From what I've seen of Nay and Dean, Dean certainly profiles better at 3B longterm and maybe has the better overall offensive potential/game, but Nay looks a good power hitter. Both guys are eons away from the upper minors, let alone the big leagues. Tyler Gonzales was a guy I thought would be picked in the supplementary and someone I considered for the Jays. There are apparently some signability questions, but he's got that quick arm all scouts look for and has shown some impressive velocity this spring. He reminds me a bit of Aaron Crow of the Royals. He has a good looking frame and has played some infield so there's instincts there and athleticism. It's a good selection.

It's not the loud first couple rounds the Jays have had in recent drafts, but if these guys sign, come a couple years this could be one of the better classes of the draft. What you can say about each guy is they all possess one or two primo tools.

metafour - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#257798) #

No, it's entirely different.
Stroman throws 98mph, and has a killer slider and a good change. Those are real things he can do with the baseball. His height doesn't stop him from doing any of those things. Being 6'2" doesn't help Cecil to do any of those things, either.

This. Pitchers have success with a combination of good stuff, being able to command/control said stuff, and having good pitching smarts (pitchability). A pitcher doesn't have success because of height. Height can allow a pitcher to get a better downward plane on a baseball; but you're never going to say "that guy is an elite pitcher because he's really tall". Guys who are elite pitchers are elite because of their stuff and pitchability. Stroman absolutely has the stuff; you are essentially guessing on the fact that because he is 5'9 and there aren't a whole lot of successful pitchers at that size that therefore he isn't likely to ever start. That could turn out to be true; but it doesn't change the fact that you are guessing on something that really has little to do with how well he will ultimately pitch.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#257799) #

"His height doesn't stop him from doing any of those things."

What it does stop him from is being taken with a top pick in the draft; this is because the list of 5"9 starting pitcher in MLB history are few and far between.

Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:21 AM EDT (#257800) #

The way I look at it, if you're considered a top 10 pick by Baseball America when you are 5'9", a group that generally frowns on such things and rates players more traditionally, then you must have talent.

The Jays took one of the two most talented players left on the board when they picked Stroman. Whether or not his height plays a factor, who knows. It was still a good pick.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#257801) #

re Stroman. A few years ago a study was done for the 1992-1999 draft years and found players taken with picks 21-30 averaged only .314 WAR per year. If Stroman becomes nothing more than Jason Frasor (another 5'9" righty)and accumulates about 6 WAR in 9 years, he would actually exceed expectations for his draft slot, especially considering this was by all accounts, a weak draft year.

ogator - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#257802) #

Is this a good opportunity to mourn the trading of Tiny Tim Collins who seems to be doing in the Major Leagues, almost exactly what he was doing in the minor leagues, ya know, striking out guys at a breath taking clip?

BalzacChieftain - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#257804) #

Wow, anyone see Stroman's dad in a pic that Marcus tweeted last night after he got drafted? Big Daddy Stroman. Posting from my phone, sorry if the link doesn't work since it's a mobile version.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MStrooo7/status/204294106346823680/photo/1

CeeBee - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#257808) #

Thanks to sam and Kelekin for this well done article :) I'm certainly no expert but I like the first days picks. #17 surprised me the most but hey..... maybe Davis will turn out to be a Moseby/Stewart type player which would be great IMO.

Forkball - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#257810) #

I doubt the Jays fast track Stroman as a reliever. They saved Brandon Morrow from a similar fate.

As well as Cecil.

Nice job identifying Stroman. I thought his physical characteristics would make the Jays pass given their recent history, but I think this shows that there’s no absolutes when it comes to how the Jays draft. That they did draft him at that height is pretty telling. They probably go in hoping for a starter and have the downside of a good reliever. He should be fun to follow.

Once Giolito went to the Nats I actually thought DJ Davis would be the pick. I’m guessing that the Jays thought the Braves might take him in between their two picks.

It’ll be interesting to see how the bonuses shake out. Goldstein speculated that Davis might have been a discount pick, and if that’s the case I think some of that might be going to Smoral.

(Stroman and Smoral have way too many similar letters to not get me to confuse the two)

Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#257811) #

Is it me, or the buzz is not the same as last years picks?

I guess since we didn't sign Beede last year, so the buzz around him didn't matter.

In the end, when you get 5 picks, 1 or two of them are going to pan out. But... you need them in your system first or you might as well only had one pick.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#257813) #

Marrero isn't exactly a ceiling guy. No one much liked that pick for the Red Sox(Or their other first round pick for that matter) Funny, I remember hearing the same thing about Wang. He of the .900 OPS last season.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#257814) #

"Is this a good opportunity to mourn the trading of Tiny Tim Collins who seems to be doing in the Major Leagues, almost exactly what he was doing in the minor leagues, ya know, striking out guys at a breath taking clip?"

Collins looks great.

the more encouraging thing about Stroman is that while short relievers like Collins and Frasor have been successful topping out at 94mph out of the 'pen, Stroman seems to have plenty more juice than that, topping out at 97-98. From the scouting reports, he seems to sit in the 93 range as an SP, while guys like Collins and Frasor sit in the same range as RP.....apparently Stroman sits up in the 96 range as a reliever. Reports indicate that Stromans slider is at least as good as Frasor's slider and Timmy's curveball, if not better. There are some hints in the scouting reports that Stroman might have a similar problem as timmy in that his fastball is fairly straight, though.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#257825) #

Wow has Collins ever been good this year. 2.9 BB/9 vs 13.5 K/9 and 1.0 HR/9. 28 IP in 26 games so not being used as a LOOGY either. Nice! Glad to see him doing well. 5'7" 165 lbs - shows you can be smaller and powerful in baseball.

Bid - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#257833) #

Pitcher height: Jon Rauch, 6'11"...Mark Hendrickson...6'9"...fastballs in the high 80s.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#257834) #

Nice article on Davis.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/04/jays-draft-dj-davis-with-first-pick

His father was in the Jays system. Very cool

Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#257839) #

Can't speak for Hendrickson Bid, but that has not always been true of Rauch (not even sure it is true today). IIRC he was hurt and lost a few miles of his fastball.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#257841) #

But big tall strong kids don't get hurt nearly as much as the wee little ones!

uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#257843) #

Stroman vs. Smoral is going to be fun to watch as they develop.

Stroman throwing high 90s and with some of the best current stuff in the draft, but disliked because he's 5'9".

Smoral throwing low 90s and with all of his stuff being pure projection at this point, but loved because he's 6'8".

Ryan Day - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#257845) #

Yeah, Rauch was throwing in the mid-90s when he was drafted and for the first few years of his pro career, but blew out his rotator cuff in 2001. He understandably lost some velocity when he came back.

neurolaw - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#257890) #

The Marcus Stroman starter vs. reliever debate continues.

Kevin Goldstein said this on his chat today about Stroman:

"He's got front-end stuff, but it's pretty much impossible to see it working out. Five-foot-nine (or eight) guys don't throw 200 innings in the big leagues. Just pop him in the bullpen, where he's been crazy dominant and ride it."

bpoz - Friday, June 08 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#258154) #

J Key started in the pen & became a V good SP. IMO same with D Wells.
Texas has turned a couple of RPs Wilson & Ogando into good SPs.
As many Bauxites have said 3-4 dominant pitches can make a RP into a good SP. I don't know how it could be done wisely but I see Santos as a possible conversion to SP. His track record since becoming a pitcher suggests a great closer but who knows.

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