It should be an interesting few years to see how the money spent on picks pans out. Players/agents have lost their main bargaining chip, which was an essentially unlimited source of funds for a particular pick. Teams would be crazy to blow a large % of their money on a single draft pick given how often baseball picks work out, but there are always crazy teams out there, I guess. I agree with JDog above – I think players are going to have to give up a lot of ground. Now you have to appear to be not only a top player to get a big bonus, but I would think you’d have to be almost MLB ready at draft time (so a few college players, and a rare HS hitter like Harper?).  But I’m not sure player demand changes will happen this year, both sides will be seeking out a new equilibrium.

Punting on an early draft choice to save a lot of money would require picking a player completely out of draft position – not just a “safe” choice, but a “this first rounder would be happy with 10th round money” type choice. It will be pretty explicit too, if teams do this, since the money will end up being way below typical. It’s two problems – the player is constantly referred to as being “not really a first rounder” and ends up with a weird combination of expectation and expectation of failure, and the league looks awful if it happens a lot. I don’t think anything that similar happens in any other drafts. Baseball already had this happen way too often at the top of the draft (where else would a #1 overall pick fall on signability concerns like it has occasionally in MLB?)

In my eye, it boils down to the following: would you trade two mid-1st round picks for a top 5 pick after factoring in the injury and prospect attrition risks? In my opinion, it is worth it. Getting truly elite talent is now more costly than ever, and this is the situation to roll the dice.

That is, if Giolito falls to 17.

Even with the last 2 very good drafts, I was disappointed with the top pick each year - Travis Snider is the only top pick in this century that I really liked, so I'm thinking I will probably be disappointed again with the jays 1st pick.

with a young mlb team & a very good farm system, the jays are in an excellent position to be aggressive & if that results in some of the picks not signing and punting that pick to next years draft, I don't mind that at all especially with a weak draft.

Here's what would make me happy (I don't expect the jays to get any)

17 - Lucas Giolito - it's worth the gamble for a potential top of the rotation guy - if he doesn't sign or the injury is worse than suspected then I'm okay with punting the pick to next year. I would make him a good offer but not go overboard like I've read in some postings. 

22. David Dahl - he seems to be everybody's 2nd choice amongst the high ceiling high school outfielders & apparently the Jays like him

50. Matt Smoral (Hunter Vibrant) - hopefully injury concerns drop him & the system could use a upside lefty

58. Nick Williams - I know he's had a down year but he was great last year & teams have done well gambling on players who had down draft years

60. Kevin Barnum - the power bat @ 1b 

If we assume that teams stick to the slotting system there is very little incentive for a player selected in the first round not to sign.  Let's think of the player the Jays select at #17.  If the player elects not to sign, his hope for a better payday assumes he will be selected higher than #17 in two or three years time.  That is a low probability event.  Also, a player signing at age 18 starts the clock on his minor league service time earlier and, if he is a top tier player, he should reach the major leagues at a younger age further increasing his total compensation.

Many non signed players in previous years did not sign over arbitrary dollar amounts of what the pick should be worth versus what the team was offering.  That arbitrary debate has been significantly removed this year.  I doubt we will see many picks punted to pay another player more.  You can end up making yourself worse off by doing that.  Many of the Jays current top prospects were taken in the supplementary round or in rounds 2 or 3.  If you punt that pick to give more money to a first rounder, you could end up with less total value.

BA Mock:  http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2012/2613500.html

And bonus slots:  http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2012/2613426.html

There's no trading of picks in baseball, but if you think Giolito is a top 5 player, would you (effectively) use the bonus money from picks 17 and 22 to draft and sign him for $4 million?  I think the instinct is to say yes, but something like WAR would show that it's better to have those two picks.

I wonder if there's players out there who would offer themselves at a discount to their slot to be selected higher?  Say you're the 30th ranked player, but are willing to sign at a $250,000 discount (from slot) if selected in the top 20.  The player would end up with more money even with the discount, and the team would have more money freed up to use in other places.  Seems like a win-win.

With the caps in place I think we'll see a lot of agreed upon deals today.  Pick #17 will probably reveal the Jays strategy quickly.

as future draftees and their "advisers" may start demanding over-slot compensation

Players can demand all they want but a team has to agree to it.  The Jays have shown they have a dollar amount in mind and you either take it or you don't.  Plus, teams have the benefit of pick protection if a player doesn't sign.

If you think going over on 1 player and under on a 2nd is the best way to use two picks that's what you have to do, because you can bet some team will if you don't.

Individual draft picks are massively overrated by the average fan.  We all know what kind of player Aaron Hill is but did you know that based on WAR he's the 6th best player to date that was drafted 13th overall since the start of the draft in 1965.  The Baseball Reference draft website is a great reality check for the uninitiated:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/

I can't imagine they would take Giolito and then blindly hope to save money elsewhere for the very reason you point out, Beyonder.

If the Jays take Giolito, or any other player that will be an 'above slot' player, any player they take subsequent to that to 'save' money I would imagine will be pre-arranged prior to the selection.  (And for that matter, I think the Jays have done alright recently with players under slot; Syndergaard was one IIRC).

Pre-arranged deals were pretty common in the old format; I think they'll increase significantly this year, particularly since it's considered a weak draft.  One of the biggest keys to a draft these days will be accurately gauging how much players will sign for.

I think Giolito will be available and the Jays will pass.

Ishai. From what I hear you are right about next years' draft being deeper. Don't know if I agree about the 'punting' strategy though.

For one, all things being equal, a player today is worth more than a player tomorrow #like a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow#. Especially when your fan base criticizes you mercilessly when you fail to sign your first round pick.

Second, yes, your draft budget may get larger next year, but so likely would the cost of signing the player with the replacement pick. No real advantage there.

Lastly, if the Jays punt their 17th pick by not signing whoever they draft, that slot value dissappears from the Jays $8,830,000 budget. If they don't sing the player they can't use his slot on another player.

    Would the Jays take two difficult signs with their first two picks, oversign the best bargain, thus maintaining one of their first round picks for next year while forfeiting their 2013 1st rounder ?

     Does anybody know whether the unsigned carryover pick maintains the same selection slot if there are subsequent lottery picks slotted ahead of them ?

I think one of the main reasons for the high volume of pre-arranged deals in years past was because of the softer slot recommendations that existed under the uncapped regime.

I think it's just the opposite.  Before you could pay anyone anything you wanted with no penalty.  Now with penalties, that come quickly, you have to be more creative and have more certainty about what you're doing.

For example, with Giolito, if the Jays take him, they almost have to know who they can get at a discount with their later picks to make up; you can't chance it and hope someone signs at a discount or you might lose all of that allocation.

All the new system is doing is suppressing the total amounts of bonuses that are handed out.  The real result of that is probably pushing 2nd tier HS players to college.

But we'll probably know by the end of the 2nd tomorrow, if not tonight.