Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Just was thinking about where the Jays are weakest so far and where improvements are needed so far in 2012.

Using sOPS+ (OPS+ vs the rest of the league at that position) we see the following...

Great

2B - 113, Kelly Johnson plus an 0 for 8 by Vizquel
DH - 111, Encarnacion (138) dragged down by Francisco (58) & Lind (-2) and 20 PA by others (Bautista, JPA, Lawrie, Thames, Vizquel)

Solid

CA - 106, JPA & Mathis
RF - 100, Bautista & 5 PA by Francisco & Davis
3B - 98, Lawrie & Gomes, Encarnacion, and Vizquel (19 PA total for those 3)

Weak

SS - 89, Escobar & Vizquel (8 PA)
1B - 88, Lind, Encarnacion (135 sOPS+), and 13 PA by Bautista, Gomes & Vizquel
LF - 88, Thames (93) & Davis (76) & Vizquel (1 PA)
CF - 88, Rasmus & Davis (14 PA)

A bit surprised at how good 1B looks, but that is thanks to Encarnacion and how he has continued to hit while playing there. Thames in LF isn't that far off of league average for LF, which is a surprise as is Rasmus in CF being in eyeshot.

Clearly the offense is not amazing but also not as far from solid at all positions as it seems somedays. SS/1B/LF/CF all being so tightly bunched in sOPS+ was a surprise. However, if Encarnacion is moved to 1B full time then a real DH must be found. The Jays advantage is they could find a LF or DH or 1B and have it work, sadly that is due to Encarnacion and Thames both being poor defensively.

What about pitching you ask? They do list sOPS+ for starting vs relief which can be an indicator. The starters have a sOPS+ of 97 against (here a low number is good) while the relievers are at 111 (yikes). Morrow is at 65 (average hitter against him looks like Lind vs other first basemen), Romero 86 (average hitter looks as bad as our SS/1B/LF/CF situations). Drabek & Alvarez are 104/105 which is respectable, a bit worse than league average. Hutchison...well...129 thanks to an ISO of 195 (when they connect they really connect against him).

The pen is a bit extreme... Oliver at 47 (wow), Perez 74, Frasor & Janssen 85, Carreno 94 - these are the guys doing better than the average reliever. Villanueva is at 108 which is OK for your 6th/7th man. But our 2 closers...ugh...Cordero at 173 and Santos at 186 is much, much, much worse than planned - they make everyone look as good as Bautista was the past 2 years. Crawford moves to a new level of suck at 244 (Barry Bonds level).

Clearly there is dead wood here. Crawford isn't ready for prime time, Cordero you hope comes back and has shown promising signs lately. Santos is hurt and should improve a lot once he is healthy (we hope). Hutchison might need more AA/AAA time to learn how to keep away from the power centers of hitters.

Right now I'd say the clear need is a slugger for one (or two) of 1B/LF/DH - Snider could be the answer but at this point I doubt it. Another starting pitcher would be nice (Darvish...if only Rogers would've opened the pocketbook) but it would need to be a kid who has 3+ years of control and has shown ace ability which is always very hard to find. Janssen has taken over the closer role and with Santos returning at some point I'm not too worried about the pen. So one or two hitters and an ace for the rotation...hrm...haven't we been hearing that for about 9 months now?

Posted by John Northey on Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 12:08 PM EDT.

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uglyone - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#256919) #

Man would this team look good with a 28 year old overweight lefty 1B cleanup masher, and a 26 year old japanese top of the rotation starting pitcher, with a payroll comfortably around $100m.

Sal - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#256922) #

I agree on Darvish, but I don't think it was that simple due to the blind bidding process.

Fielder, on the other hand, would have crippled the franchise for years to come. He is playing nowhere near what his 25M/year salary warrants.

Dave Rutt - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#256926) #

This seems to be more "what has happened" than "what should have happened". The rotation has been a lot worse than its ERA would indicate, and that can't just be chalked up to how excellent the infield defense has been (speaking of which, I would give Escobar a "solid" given the lower offensive bar for shortstops as well as taking into account his defense.) While Romero should right the ship, it can't be long before Drabek, Hutchison or both blow up and the rotation requires patching up. Even Alvarez has blowup potential, though his problem is a lack of strikeouts rather than an abundance of walks.

Chuck - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#256927) #

The rotation has been a lot worse than its ERA would indicate

John Northey - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#256928) #

Well, AA said (iirc) that he knew to get Darvish you either bid a record amount (which the Rangers barely did - if I was trying for him I'd have gone for $54 mil or something, clearly above but not a crazy amount above) or you bid low and hope no one goes high.

As to the big 3 from last winter...
Darvish: 140 ERA+, 6 IP per game, 5.1 BB/9, 10.1 K/9
Fielder: 285/346/461 - 807 121 OPS+
Pujols: 213/258/331 - 589 68 OPS+

Clearly Pujols is the nightmare situation, Fielder and Darvish both producing at decent levels but not $20+ mil a year levels. Darvish, due to his age and being new to MLB, could be expected to improve. Fielder is actually near the level I expected (130-140 OPS+ range I figured) but far below what the Tigers paid for (160 OPS+). Pujols...well...no need to kick a guy when he is as far down as he's ever been.

Btw, the Tigers have as nightmarish a defense as predicted. Total Zone fielding runs are negative for all but 1 hitter (Laird who has 1 fielding run), while BIS fielding runs has 3 positives (Austin Jackson at 4, Raburn & Dirks at 1 each). That is ugly. The Jays 11 positives for TZ and 3 negatives (from -0 to -2 - Francisco, Mathis, Encarnacion) vs BIS showing 8 positives, 1 neutral (JPA), 5 negative (-1 to -3, Lind, Francisco, Encarnacion, Bautista, Thames). Biggest positives being Lawrie (19 BIS, 8 TZ), Johnson (11, 8), Escobar (10, 10) while Rasmus (5,2) and Davis (3,3) are ahead of everyone in Detroit (Jackson was +4 by BIS, -1 by TZ).

What a thought, that Lawrie has added up to 2 wins via his glove _so far_ and Johnson & Escobar have added one each (10 runs roughly equals one win).

greenfrog - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#256929) #

Agree with Sal. Instead of Fielder, I would nominate a certain 35-year-old Cardinals OF hitting 292/400/618 (14 HR) and signed to a much more acceptable 2/$26M. Sub in Beltran for Thames or Lind and you have a very competitive team, even without Darvish. It does sound as though AA was in on Beltran, which is somewhat consoling (he was targeting the right guy at least).

92-93 - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#256930) #

Willingham & Pena were both players the team could afford. I believe Richard S.S. called me insane and said I HATE YOU for suggesting they target Pena.

sam - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#256931) #

Thanks for doing this post. A general weakness with the team is overall refinement of skills and approach. We have a fair amount of "raw" players or toolsy players yet to play to their projection and talent. Little disappointed with the coaching staff, particularly the hitting and pitching instructors that a lot of these guys just haven't come along or aren't as refined as they should be. The team also lacks a bit of maturity, or a been there done that type attitude. I know a lot has been made of their confidence, yet I have not seen that "swagger" or assuredness against good ball clubs and tight situations this year.

I think the lineup is more formidable with another big bopper in the middle of the order. If the Jays could find that LH bat to hit in the four or five spot of the order and really drive in runs than I think the lineup is a very good one. I'm unconvinced that the Jays have the internal options for that spot. With that being said, I'd like to see Yan Gomes continue on with the team. He was a pleasure to watch last night at first base and he's an aggressive hitter, which is a nice change of pace in the lineup at the moment. On the whole, the lineup could probably feature a bit more speed and average/on-base ability.

I quite like the rotation. I agree that Darvish would look really good in a Jays uniform, but the group they have now is more than competent. Although the walks are a worrying trend. There's a lot of projection still with most of the guys and most of them are still trying to figure out how to get ML hitters out, but I like the group and think in time they'll be an elite rotation. I don't know if I see the point of trading for Zack Greinke at the moment, unless there's a guaranteed contract extension.

As an organization, I'd like to see more power arms and maybe the promotion of those power arms to the ML bullpen. I noticed Sam Dyson pitched in releif in New Hampshire last night. It might have been to spot the club some innings considering the rain outs they've had and the doubleheader they played yesterday, but I'd like to see those guys feature in time in our bullpen down the road. On the whole, I think the bullpen could feature a bit more power.

I think the Jays naturally improve over the next two years with this group. They really need to be playing some meaningful games at some point this season. It's an old clich�, but I don't think management has a great handle on how these guys will perform in those situations.

I'd like to see Travis d'Arnaud and Adeiny Hechevarria claim starting roles on this team in the next two seasons. I think both bring a bit more defensively to the table and I'd like to see Arencibia carry on with the team in a Mike Napoli type role. I'm unsure of Yunel Escobar's longterm future with the team. Anthony Gose needs more at-bats in the minors and perhaps another full season at AAA. I'm a big fan, perhaps too much, of Brandon Belt. I think he would look really good in the five hole on our team.

I willing to be patient with this group provided guys are showing up to play hard and wanting to improve. Brett Lawrie carries most of the group in this regard, yet I'd like to see a bit more emotion or passion out of Colby Rasmus, Eric Thames, and to a lesser extent JP Arencibia. There's a bit too much coasting there for my liking. Romero obviously needs to improve his BB numbers, but I like that Drabek has gone back to using his CB more often. He's a much more dominant pitcher with that pitch and the strikeout option. I think you hope that Alvarez works on a breaking ball or something that moves away from RH's a bit better in the offseason. Mostly I think for the group you just hope they keep learning how to get ML hitters out, the way Brandon Morrow has really shown this year.

Barring a Alomar Carter/McGriff Fernandez type trade, I'd like to organization to look outside to fill the first base role. I'd also like to see Travis Snider get a run of 100-200 at-bats this season.

sam - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#256933) #

Sorry, I don't think the team is at that point, or should consider an Alomer Carter type trade. I like the group we have and hope there is tangible improvement in the second half.

sam - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#256934) #

Also Romero apparently had a little bit of a hissy fit on twitter last night.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/05/24/romero_twitter_vents_frustration_twitter/

I think I'm starting to understand the use of "haters." It is anyone that tells a professional athlete that they are not playing well (when they are not playing well)?

92-93 - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#256935) #

I'd like to see better numbers out of Lawrie, Rasmus, Thames, and Arencibia. I don't give a rats ass about their perceived "passion".

uglyone - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#256936) #

IMO in regards to the pitching, you can't always assume that the component numbers are the "true" numbers, with the results numbers definitely regressing towards them going forward.

Over small samples, the component numbers can also be misleading, and can regress towards the results numbers.

In the Jays' case, I think this is especially true, because if you look at the numbers you can see that the component numbers are much more "outlier" than the results numbers for most of the pitchers compared to their usual individual performances. And while there seems to be some clear signs of "good luck" in the Jays' pitching numbers, you can't ignore that there have been significant elements of "bad luck" balancing those out to some extent, most specifically in their near MLB-worst (and unsustainable high) HR/FB%.

And I think we've already seen the component numbers start to regress towards the results numbers this year:

APR: 6.5k/9, 3.6bb/9, 51.8gb%, 18.7hr/fb%, .244babip, 3.79era, 5.02fip, 4.08xfip
MAY: 7.3k/9, 4.5bb/9, 47.9gb%, 9.1hr/fb%, .275babip, 3.72era, 3.93fip, 4.10xfip

So the ERA and xFIP have stayed about the same in May as in April, but the FIP has fallen down to match them this month instead of the reverse.

Both HR/FB% and BABIP were big outliers in April, with babip way too low and HR/FB% way too high....but it seems that the HR/FB% was the one that was most out of whack.

In May, the Jays HR/FB% has stabilized at around league average, which has brought their team FIP back in line with their xFIP this month, despite the fact that the K/BB and GB rates have stayed about the same, and despite the fact that team BABIP has risen to a more normal rate closer to league average.

In fact, the May component stats across the board seem more "typical" and less outlier than the rather strange April stats did (though I still expect the K/BB numbers to improve a bit, while BABIP rises), so I'd be inclined to think that they're closer to what we can expect going forward.

uglyone - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#256937) #

Offensively, I'd guess that their 2nd-worst-in-MLB .267babip will rise going forward, though with the types of hitters we have it likely won't rise higher than league average....and of course, the Jays also managed to post a godawful .269babip as a team 2 years ago over the whole season, so it's not impossible that they stay that low there.

Chuck - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#256938) #

I'd like to see a bit more emotion or passion out of Colby Rasmus, Eric Thames, and to a lesser extent JP Arencibia.

I think it is too easy to misread outward emotion as a sign of anything other than outward emotion. Brett Lawrie may be just as jacked up playing Parcheesi. Colby Rasmus may be just as stoic in a burning building.

John Northey - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#256939) #

I think anyone would get annoyed if people kept saying 'you suck' in various ways and made it very public. The trick is for players to learn to just ignore it like they need to learn to ignore those who yell from the stands. There is really no difference beyond the crazy volume of fans who will type out a 'you suck' letter vs those who will yell it and have to deal with people going 'why did you do that' who are sitting nearby.

I'd also bet that players do get sick of the number of 'helpful' posts people send them. Think about how each player has thousands of followers, then about how if just 1% of those post back that is 10 responses per day per 1k followers that would be a mix of 'I love you', 'please send me money', 'you suck', and 'you need to do xyz to succeed'. If I was a player I'd ignore all of those postbacks as they have (or should have) personal trainers plus the coaching staff to ask - people who are trained professionals vs those of us who sit here at our keyboards just having fun.

Do I often have ideas on what is wrong? Yup, as do all of us. In university I actually helped a pitcher on our team (even though my fastball peak is around 60 mph) via some advise but that only came after seeing him pitch often and tracking all his pitches. If I was a 'fan in the stands' he would never have listened, nor should he have but because I knew his skill set my advise helped him shift from a guy with a 10+ ERA to a sub 2 ERA (had to do with pitch selection and placement - he was way too predictable and too slow a fastball to get away with predictable). Same thing here - I follow the Jays and have ideas but there are people paid to be sitting next to them who already know that idea #1/2/3/4/5/.../193 that I've had already was tried but now have new ideas on how to help.

I am glad players do the twitter thing - it is quite entertaining at times and gives an eye into the pro-athletes world but responding to it? Never bother beyond message boards as there isn't much point. If I worked for a team or was close to a player, then he might listen but a blogger or twitter person they've never met? I really, really, really hope the Jay players don't listen to that advise beyond the 'love you, hope you do well' stuff.

smcs - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#256940) #

Right now I'd say the clear need is a slugger for one (or two) of 1B/LF/DH

Carlos Lee.

John Northey - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#256941) #

Lawrie from what I've read is like that all the time as is his sister. Can't find the article about their family stuff, but this article mentions how he is just as intense for video games and the like. Winning is everything in his family thus intensity is sky-high.

Chuck - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#256942) #

Winning is everything in his family thus intensity is sky-high.

Some might celebrate his passion. Others might recommend ritalin.

sam - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#256944) #

Chuck, I think that's a fair point. It's unfair of me to suppose that the guys I mentioned aren't passionate about the game, their own personal success, and the team's just because they don't show it by breaking a bat over their knee or throwing the gatorade cooler. The way Colby Rasmus goes after balls in the CF suggest he's quite passionate about the team and game. And 92/93, I agree as well that bottom line better numbers would be much appreciated.

I don't know if I take back my statement, but it is more tempered. I do believe the players I mentioned would do better with a little more urgency than I have seen so far. Arencibia has come on of late and is recent award is much deserved. Defensively though the man lacks focus. Lunging at balls late in games is unbecoming of a good ML catcher. I've seen enough of Thames and Rasmus that there are at-bats during games too often which they seem to be less than concentrated or in two minds. They need to start centering balls up more often.

92-93 - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#256946) #

"I've seen enough of Thames and Rasmus that there are at-bats during games too often which they seem to be less than concentrated or in two minds. They need to start centering balls up more often."

Ay, there's the rub. You essentially admit that if they were centering balls up more often (which, coincidentally, Rasmus leads the starting lineup in and has been doing all year), or in other words, hitting better, you'd be getting the impression they are concentrating harder. That's nonsense. Enthusiastic players like JMac can stink and boring players who don't like baseball like Dunn can pop out 40 HRs every year.

John Northey - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#256947) #

Speaking of Dunn...might it have been a good idea for the Jays to take him off the White Sox hands in the offseason? He hit for a 56 OPS+ last year after 6 out of 7 seasons with a 130+ OPS+ (114 in the other). This year he is hitting 243/386/579 for a 161 OPS+. He has 2 years left at $15 mil per year after this year ($14 mil this year). Odds are the Sox would dump him for nothing and probably would pay some of his salary too.

Just a thought...

John Northey - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#256948) #

As to McDonald...
ex Jays in Arizona...
John McDonald: 304/339/446 - 785 - 112 OPS+
Lyle Overbay: 370/453/593 - 1.046 - 182
Aaron Hill: 248/333/401 - 735 - 99

Wow, is the NL that much weaker? Well, not really. PA are 59-65-177 respectively so a lot of air will be let out of Overbay & McDonald's stats by seasons end.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#256951) #

I agree with this. Looking at the pitching staff as a whole, rather than just the starters, here are some key metrics compared to the league average:

ERA:    4.00 vs 4.25
H/9:     7.7 vs 8.5
HR/9:   1.1 vs 1.0
BB/9:    4.0 vs 3.2
SO/9:    6.9 vs 7.2
BABIP: .267 vs .285 (approx)
LD%:    17.6% vs. 21% (approx)
GB%:    47.7% vs. 45% (approx)

The key to the low BABIP is the team's efficiency in turning ground balls into outs. The league is batting .167/.167/.184 on ground balls against the Jays (sample size 587). League average is .224/.224/.242. The team has been league average at turning fly balls into outs (.228 vs. 227) and noticeably below average in turning line drives into outs (.740 vs .715).

This ground ball efficiency (which does not take into account the added DP benefit) could be attributed to the pitching staff, in part (more weak ground balls perhaps), or simply to the defence. The fabulous DRS ratings, which account for speed of ball, for Lawrie, Escobar and Johnson suggest that it simply is the defence. I certainly wouldn't describe that as luck, over that kind of sample, and you do have to give the pitchers credit for inducing more ground balls than average to take advantage of the defence. The Orioles of the 70s and the Cardinals of the 1980s functioned in this way to a large degree, albeit that the pitchers were (in general terms) better and so got even better results than the Jays of 2012.

I should note that it is tough to evaluate individual player defence and 3 years sample is usually required to get a good read. It is much easier to evaluate team infield and team outfield defence. Two months data for an infield is probably equivalent to about 2 years data (or more) for a third baseman because of the larger sample size and the lack of issues about hogging or positioning.

rpriske - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#256957) #

The Jays just picked up a new AAA catcher (Paul Phillips from the Brewers).

Why? Could it be D'Arnaud time? (I wouldn't have thought so, but...)

sam - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#256958) #

Saw that too. Likely backup to d'Arnaud with Gomes promoted.

Dave Rutt - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#256960) #

Over small samples, the component numbers can also be misleading, and can regress towards the results numbers.

This is true but to a lesser extent than surface numbers. I know that strikeouts for one normalize faster than almost any other stat. Not sure about walks and homers allowed. Basically, it's more likely that surface numbers regress to component numbers, but the other way around is also possible.

bpoz - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#256962) #

2 cents.

Last year on this date 24-24 when Bautista had a better April. This year 24-21, probably due to better SP performance.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#256963) #

My appologies for calling you insane. I shouldn't call anyone crazy for incorrect thinking. Out of one's mind, or lunatic fringe or batshit crazy would be closer to accurate, than calling someone insane.

My appologies for the "I HATE YOU", I generally reserve that for terrorists and people who do nasty things to small children and young animals. Despise might just be more politically correct.

Pena usually sucks for average, will disappear from time to time, can upon occassion be Fielder-ish defensively, would need 10-12 MM to play here. For the next few years, at least, I will regret A.A. not signing Prince Fielder when he could. I still believe Thames can be as good as Wiilingham. And we have saved 'how much money?

John Northey - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#256965) #

And now for something completely different...
Moseby stealing second base twice

A story on BBTF was mentioning how someone did that in 1908 and I remembered watching the above when it happened on TV. One of many fun Exhibition Stadium memories on that YouTube link.

cpfan - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#256967) #

Re Jays picking up the Catcher for Vegas. Remember AJ Jimenez at New Hampshire is probably going for a Tommy John operation. He's on the 7-day at the moment. Also according to Vegas transactions page, Catcher Luis Hurtado just went on the 7-day. So a bit of a shortage of AAA/AA level catchers.

Steve

hypobole - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#256969) #

Mike- don't those ground ball and line drive numbers merely verify what we've been seeing? Good infield defense plus aggressive positioning shifts (more than any team other than Tampa is what I recall hearing) would drive down GB BABIP. A slow right fielder and a really bad left fielder would drive up LD BABIP. Both numbers seem sustainable, for better or worse.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 24 2012 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#256976) #

This team needs:

1) An outfielder: Bautista is fine defensively, and strong offensively. Rasmus is strong defensively, and lacking offensively. Thames is poor defensively, and sadly average-ish offensively. Replace Thames, with someone good and you don't need 5 Outfielders.

2) Keep Gomes. He hits. Also plays 1B, 3B and C. You want Vizquel to do this?

3) A Starter: Romero is very good until a cow flys by then oops. Morrow looks to be where he's supposed to be. Alvarez, Drabek and Hutchison are works in progress, although Drabek's overall stuff is better.

4) A Closer and another Reliever: Santos will be fine when he returns. Cordero has been less than desired, and as good as Janssen is, that's not enough. Perez has stunk it up lately, and Crawford looks lost.

5) A Big Bat: Lawrie, Escobar and Johnson (sign him already) are answers. Encarnacion who plays 1B well and hits just as well as when a DH. That's the question.

It will be interesting to see what A.A. does. Keep Gomes (and that turns out to be a good thing, playing him every week : 1G at 3B, 1G at 1B, 1G at C. and 1G at DH.). Fill one of 1, 2, 3, 4 with a long-term answer. Fill another 1 or 2 with a short-term answer and W.S. '12 is ours.

PeteMoss - Friday, May 25 2012 @ 03:02 AM EDT (#256978) #

Agree here... I don't think the plan was to keep Gomes up long term, but he's earned the chance to stay up so they need a catcher in AAA.

JB21 - Friday, May 25 2012 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#256987) #

Richard S.S. I couldn't help but noticing that you defended Thames, saying he will be as good as Willingham, and then one post later declaring Thames needs to go.

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