Thank you for posting this, but I am bit embarrassed by the many spelling and grammatical errors. Hopefully people can read past these errors.

To add to some of the more intriguing/potential players the Jays might target, here are some additional names.

Joey Gallo

Gallo is pegged for first base at the next level despite a 90mph+ fastball. Scouts are reported to be less than impressed with his range, however, he shows solid athleticism. Gallo has 5 o'clock power, or batting practice power at the moment, and some question his in-game power. There will be work to be done with Gallo no doubt, but the raw tools are there for an impressive first base prospect. He might be an overdraft with one of the first rounders, but he might not make it to one of the compensation picks. Even if he does, like Kris Bryant who right now projects to be one of the very early picks of next year's draft, Gallo could go to college if the money is not right in the first or compensation round.

J.O. Berrios

The Jays have long maintained an interest in Puerto Rico when so many teams have ignored the area. The focus has paid dividends in A.J. Jimenez who looks a good prospect and one day might have a career as a solid defense first catcher at the big league level. Berrios on the other hand will likely go well before Jimenez and Joe Thon, who the Jays also drafted out of Puerto Rico. Berrios is reported to have some helium so he might not make it to the Jays in the supplementary rounds. I really like him. He's got some arm strength and has a nice delivery and frame that you can project some more velocity. He is reported to have a hammer curve as well. There are similarities to be drawn here in my opinion to Aaron Sanchez.

There are an OK group of high school pitching prospects. In the past there would be some groupings of sure fire first rounders and other who were gonna be supplemental and other mid-round picks. There seems to be a bunch that would be solid supplemental picks, but probably not first round talents.

I think my list reflects what I see as some voids in the system. Power tools (arms and bats) are probably the two most desired and difficult tools to cultivate and project. If the Jays continue to flood the system with power arms some will stick. The Jays would be wise to continue to draft guys with strike out potential. Hitting power is also a void in the system, and I think the Jays would do well to invest an early round pick on someone with very real power potential.

I like the idea of combining the allotted slots of the top 2 picks into 1 top talent, and taking #18 overall in next year's presumably stronger draft. The Jays should cheat and tell some top amateur talent that they like to float intolerable demands so that he'll drop from the top 5 down to them at 22.

Are you required to offer the slot reccomendation in order to 1) qualify for that amount in your bonus pool, and 2) obtain a replacement pick in the next years' draft for your failure to sign? I'd be surprised if MLB would allow this combining slots strategy, since it would entail making a non-good faith offer to one of your draftees (or drafting a lesser player much earlier than he deserves).

Also, the link to the CBA change document is a summary. Has anyone seen the full document?

Pick #22 IS protected, guys.  The New CBA changed that rule so there's now 2 years of protection.  If the Jays don't get #22 signed this year they get #23 in 2013.

Yes, but is it protected if you offer less than the slot amount? Is it protected in the event you offer your number 22 selection, say one dollar to sign? I also thought I had read somewhere that if you do not sign the pick, the slot amount is deducted from your bonus pool amount.

It's a case of good walls making good neighbours. I would be surprised if any team makes much of an effort to circumvent the rules or will want to be seen as acting outside the spirit of this agreement. The game now is to do a better job of scouting and that will be acceptable to most teams. However, 'scouting' also includes deceiving draft candidates as to what their true draft standings are, and trying to hide favorites from the media and other scouts. Young amateurs really got screwed in this deal.

Thanks Sam. I appreciate your detailed & well done scouting reports on our minor league players like D McGuire & C Jenkins.

Excellent question Beyonder about the $ pool. Just to detail it.
1) 14 players in the 1st 10 rounds for $8.8mil.
2) Rounds 3-10 unsigned picks are lost. Good question about losing the bonus $ for these picks as well.
3) So about 80 picks in the 1st 2 rounds? There may be a bunch in round 3,4... that may be as good or fairly close to the 20 or so players picked at the end of the 2nd round. The 1st 2 rounds of 2013 draft will probably have less players than this years 1st 2 rounds, except for the lottery picks.

AA did say that bonus payments will drastically drop. We will see.

So which does AA prefer. Quantity VS Quality.

Will a player reject an unsatisfactory offer and wait till next year or even the year after? That is a tough decision. And will he improve from 8th round to 5th round or go the other way. Growth spurt.

Only 40 rounds so more undrafted players. Do their bonuses count. Teams as usual will have to compete for these players.

Doing some quick research on a couple questions here. Starting next year there will be an added wrinkle of the competitive balance lottery where the teams with the ten lowest revenues and ten lowest markets will be added into a lottery for six additional draft picks at the end of the first round. The odds of winning will be weighted based on the winning percentages of the group.

Beginning next year, clubs may trade part of their bonus pool allotment, I'm not sure about picks.

In terms of slot bonus spending. Each pick comes with a recommended value. There is no penalty for going over that number, however, if a team goes over the total bonus pool allotment ($8.8) in the first ten rounds then the penalties start to kick in. That total number is based on the aggregate of all the recommended slot values. So you go over somewhere, you've got to go under somewhere if you want to sign all of your picks.

I'm interested where you've read that our compensation pick for Tyler Beede is protected and that unsigned draft picks in the first two rounds and protected for two years now?

And to confirm another question. If the Jays fail to sign a player they lose that bonus allotment. So if you sign a player under the recommended bonus allotment you get the difference, but if you don't sign the player that bonus allotment disappears from the bonus pool.

Thanks for putting this together, Sam. I think the Jays' draft will be somewhat similar to last year's, with an emphasis on HS talent with upside, plus the odd college player if they feel he's particularly promising for his draft position. The farm system is already good; what it needs (what every system needs I suppose) is more elite talent.

Future drafts should be interesting if a lot of the better HS players decline to sign starting this year. We could see some talented drafts when those players (like Matt Dean or Daniel Norris) start populating the college ranks. Of course, the new rules might impel some two- or three-sport players to focus on a sport other than baseball in college.

Beyonder,

Why would anyone offer $1 to sign?  That makes no sense.
Yes.  If the pick isn't signed that $ amount is removed from your pool.

Sam,

Here's the article (Baseball America) where I got the details...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612723.html

I like the idea of combining the allotted slots of the top 2 picks into 1 top talent, and taking #18 overall in next year's presumably stronger draft.


This is only possible if you strike a deal with someone and overdraft them by a ton and have them sign for way under slot.  You cant just "punt" a pick because you lose the bonus allotted to the pick; thus completely destroying the strategy of "combing two bonuses into one big bonus".

He might be an overdraft with one of the first rounders, but he might not make it to one of the compensation picks.

I dont see Gallo as an overdraft at all; especially at 22.  The guys at PerfectGame and Frankie Piliere like him a lot; and Keith Law has him #23 on his Top 100 list that he just released a few days ago.  Gallo provides true All-Star upside and is a risk that we can take because of not only the amount of high picks that we have, but also the current strength of our system.  He has legit 40 HR upside.

Krylian. You would only offer a dollar if you could keep the slot amount when you failed to sign the player. Then you could use that slot amount to sign under drafted players for higher bonuses.

You wouldn't do it if, as is the case, you lose the slot value if you fail to sign the player.

Krylian19, thanks for that. I do apologize for the somewhat limited amount of info and misinformation I have provided. The link Krylian19 has provided is most helpful.

Gallo indeed might not be an overdraft with one of those first rounders. All it takes is one team to buy into the power potential. There are a few guys similar to Gallo in terms of power potential. Keon Barnum out of Florida is similar in terms of power potential, although maybe not to the same extent. I think the skepticism, however, that he might not hit enough to realize that power is quite real from what has been reported so I don't know if a team will feel entirely comfortable picking him in the first round. The Jays do have two first rounders so they might not feel the same pressure to "hit" with a first rounder that other teams might feel and as a result might take that project pick or pick with high end tools but questions.

I think with the new rules the need to "hit" with that first rounder perhaps might be a bit more pronounced now than in the past. With the old CBA, missing with that first rounder wasn't the end of the world as teams could compensate with multiple first round talents and paying first round money to later round picks. Teams need to get something out of the draft and as a result might be drafting "safe" picks early knowing they will have something to show from the draft. It will be interesting to follow how teams draft this year.

Just a word on scouting high school players and college players and various outlets.

For the high school player there are a variety of ways of being seen. Most, if not all American high school players will play high school baseball, which is a much bigger deal and platform than here in Canada. At this point in the season, this is really the only platform which to see high school prospects and these games usually draw area scouts more often than crosscheckers or scouting directors. There are, however, a number of other venues that high school players get seen at. In recent years showcase events like the Under Armour game, which happens in the summer and which is more about sponsors than scouting have brought together some of the consensus high end high school prospects. Some of the more traditional events like the East Coast Showcase and Urban Youth Academy in the west are for scouts and put prospects through the traditional paces for evaluation. These usually occur in the early spring (winter in these parts) and are more about individuals and assessing tools. The Perfect Game event or WWBA Championship in Jupiter occur in the fall and feature lots of prospects playing against each other and usually feature an array of scouts, crosscheckers, and directors of amateur scouting. So there are lots of options which to see these guys play and nowadays elite high school guys will actually get an opportunity to play against each other. During the summer months a select few of high school players will be invited to the Team USA camp and play against other countries and teams. Albert Amora, for example, really made his name playing with Team USA and the increased competition. It is important when you see reports to gauge when the player was viewed and the event. For example, Daniel Norris in the year before his draft really lit-up radar guns at big-time scouting events. However, in the spring leading up to the draft his velocity dipped and questions were raised whether he had reached his physical peak. Recent reports that he was sitting 89-90 at Lansing further suggest that he may have peaked. If people remember Kevin Ahrens, what we heard were several great games in high school playoffs in Texas. Given that the competition in high school baseball in Texas is not so bad, however, Ahrens had not performed particularly well in the elite showcase events. So some things to consider in the deluge of scouting reports we're sure to receive. For Gallo, if the people at Perfect Game are high on him, it's likely they've seen him in more controlled circumstances and less so in the day to day grind. Be cautious when you read their profiles at Perfect Game as the radar gun readings are usually a bit inflated and represent a pitcher throwing his absolute hardest and not their "pitching" speed.

It is perhaps a little easier to scout the college prospect. They play their games solely on the weekends against other talented individuals. The bats are now more like wood so the difficulty in projecting metal to wood is largely gone. The ability to gauge makeup is a lot easier and to assess how a player performs in pressure situations is a lot easier. In the summer there is the Cape Cod league where elite college players will often play and then there is Team USA where JP Arencibia really made his name for himself. College players are often more physically mature and scouts must consider the burden coaches and programs put on these players. So while they may have been through the "wars," which a scout will like to see, they bare the burden of those wars and have somewhat limited physical projection and might be susceptible to injury although the evidence for that is inconclusive. Colleges also have their own way of teaching guys. Stanford, for example, is notorious for teaching hitters to hit the other way and inside-out the ball. As a result, a lot of hitters coming out of Stanford are often taught completely new swings upon entering professional baseball. This year, I'd be a bit weary of Steven Piscotty and Kenny Diekroger. Evaluating small school guys too can be difficult. The competition in Division Three ball or Juco ball is not very good and it can be difficult to get a handle on whether a guys' stuff is going to play at the next level. For example our very own Chad Jenkins posted phenomenal numbers at Kennesaw State, but Jenkins was pitching against inferior competition, was developed physically, and in several games against elite colleges did not pitch very well.

Here are a couple things to look for as people start to look guys up on youtube.

Physical projection
- High waisted
- Broad shoulders
- "Athletic"
- All skinny guys don't just put on muscle, and all big guys aren't maxed out, but does the prospect look like an athlete whose going to grow
- Does he have good bloodlines or family members who are tall, strong, and athletic?

Baseball Skills
- Can he throw hard
- Does he have bat speed
- Can he run fast
- Does he have a feel for the game

Make Up
- A lot harder to see on youtube, but some guys you can see really understand the game are clearly more enthused than others or simply want to be the best. It can be in the details. For example, famous video of Manny Ramirez hitting a double and thinking triple and getting thrown out at third in a huff of dirt. In the video it's clear he loved the game and played it with a certain exuberance that when properly channelled would be something to behold.

So some things here to consider. Also, Keith Law usually sees guys in one offs, so I'd be a little skeptical of his reports.

On baseball skills, does he throw with a good tempo and does it look "free and easy." For hitters, how do the hands work in particular, do they move to the ball quickly and straight?

Thanks for all the great insight and information Sam. I really appreciate the time and effort you've put into your posts. :)

Excellent brain storming everyone. Richard SS $9.3mil, good point.
Since there are protected picks with their $ transferring to the future, gambling recklessly is an option.

Round 3-10:- The strategy is to go high & low on signing bonuses. So pick all your high signings first so that they are still available then go low so that availability is not an issue.

Math check! If pick #3 is worth $1mil & #9 is worth $400,000 in the slot system, how to use the $1.4 wisely. And the extra $.5mil per Richard SS.

Mix & Match any way you like I suppose. K Comer cost a lot more than J Musgrove I think.
You cannot do an either OR with the likes of Beede & Norris any more. The player may not be available & the $ will definitely not be available.

This is fun.

There are a few guys similar to Gallo in terms of power potential. Keon Barnum out of Florida is similar in terms of power potential, although maybe not to the same extent.

No one matches Gallo; and Barnum is a player that I wouldn't even touch anywhere within the first 3 rounds.  Barnum is one of the oldest HS players in his class; he is literally going to be 19.5 years old by draft day.  That is a year-plus older than even the average aged HS senior; compare his age to young HS seniors like Carlos Correa or DJ Davis who will still be 17 years old when drafted and you see how big the gap in age is.  His extremely old age (relative to his level) is a huge red-flag because Barnum is also incredibly raw.  Old plus raw is a terrible combination when it comes to HS hitters.

Giolito & Gallo with our first two picks sounds just fine to me.

Slot money for all picks

Jays picks

1st round
17. 2,000,000
22. 1,800,000

1st supplement
50. 1,000,000
58. 884,100
60. 857,200

2R(81) 620,300
3R(112) 424,400
4R(145) 308,700
5R(175) 231,100
6R(205) 173,200
7R(235) 145,000
8R(265) 135,400
9R(295) 126,400
10R(325) 125,000

Baseball America's Top 100

Draft Tracker : May 16

Max White, of, Williston (Fla.) HS
White is frequently compared to fellow prep Florida outfielder Brett Phillips as athletic, speedy center fielders. White is more of a wiry athlete at 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, and has a good profile for the position as a lefthanded speedster with range and arm strength. 

He isn't a consensus supplemental pick, but he could go that high to the right team if it considers him signable. The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays all have had serious heat in to see White of late.

Toronto Blue Jays 2011
1    21                                                                     -
1s   35 Jake Anderson OF Chino (Calif.) HS Calif.                       $990,000 
1s   46 Joe Musgrove RHP Grossmont HS, El Cajon, Calif. Calif.          $500,000 
1s   53 Dwight Smith Jr. OF McIntosh (Ga.) HS Ga.                       $800,000 
1s   57 Kevin Comer RHP Seneca HS, Tabernacle, N.J. N.J.              $1,650,000 
 2   74 Daniel Norris LHP Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn. Tenn.  $2,000,000 
 2   78 Jeremy Gabryszwski RHP Crosby (Texas) HS Texas                  $575,000 
 3  108 John Stilson RHP Texas A&M Texas                                $500,000 
 4  139 Tom Robson RHP Delta SS, Ladner, B.C. B.C.                      $325,000 
 6  199 Anthony DeSclafani RHP Florida Fla.                             $250,000 
 7  229 Christian Lopes SS Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif. Calif.   $800,000 
 8  259 Mark Biggs RHP Warren East HS, Bowling Green, Ky. Ky.           $600,000 
-----------------------------------------------------------
11  349 Andy Burns SS Arizona Ariz.                                     $250,000 
13  409 Matt Dean 3B The Colony (Texas) HS Texas                        $737,500 
17  529 Brady Dragmire RHP Bradshaw Christian School, Sacramento Calif. $250,000 
18  559 Jon Berti 2B Bowling Green State Ohio 
21  649 Peter Mooney SS South Carolina S.C. 
24  739 David Rollins LHP San Jacinto (Texas) JC Texas 
25  769 Eric Arce 1B Tampa (No school) Fla.                             $100,000 
26  799 Justin Atkinson SS North Surrey (B.C.) SS B.C.                  $100,000 
27  829 Derrick Loveless OF Solon (Iowa) HS Iowa                        $125,000 
28  859 Jorge Vega-Rosado SS Miami Dade JC Fla.                         $200,000
29  889 Taylor Cole RHP Brigham Young Utah 
30  919 Kevin Patterson 1B Auburn Ala. 
32  979 Kevin Pillar OF Cal State Dominguez Hills Calif. 
33 1009 Kramer Champlin RHP Arizona State Ariz. 
34 1039 Aaron Munoz C Northwestern State La. 
36 1099 Arik Sikula RHP Marshall W.Va. 
37 1129 Les Williams RHP Northeastern Mass. 
38 1159 Nico Taylor OF Northwood (Texas) Texas 
40 1219 Nick Baligod OF Oral Roberts Okla. 
--------------------------------------------------
41 1249 Cody Bartlett SS Washington State Wash. 
42 1279 Shane Davis LHP Canisius  N.Y. 
44 1339 Colby Broussard RHP Faulkner (Ala.) Ala. 
46 1399 Shane Farrell RHP Marshall W.Va. 
50 1519 Eric Brown RHP British Columbia B.C.