New batter'sbox poll. When do the Blue Jays pull the plug on Adam Lind?

A. Within the month.
B. At the trade deadline.
C. In the offseason.
D. Never, but he platoons.
E. Never and he continues to get 500+ at-bats.

I think C

Sadly I think C as well.

Would they or should they? Would they, I'd say off-season (too bad there's not a lot on the FA market for 1B like last year). Should they, how about right now?

I'd rather see what we have in Cooper and move McDade up a level. Barring that, I'd like to see Edwin at 1B and Snider brought up.

Sub-poll: if Lind is benches or released, who plays first? EE, Bautista, Cooper, Thames, Snider, other?

And I don't say right now as an irrational thing; it's unbelievable how many times Lind works the count full, only to flail at a terrible 3-2 pitch he can't reach. I can't ever remember seeing someone work the count so well and have it result in such a poor OBP. And it seems to be creeping into his defensive game now...

Moises Sierra is another outfielder who might be in the mix for a callup. Ask yourself - which of the following two combos would provide the best offence + defence?

- Sierra/Snider RF + Bautista 1B + Encarnacion DH

- Bautista RF + Lind 1B + Encarnacion DH

My main concern about Snider is health. Wrist injuries can take a while to recover from, even if the player says he's fine after a few weeks. Which might make Sierra a better choice in the immediate term.

I'd be surprised if the team tried to move Bautista to first this year.

But you could still put Sierra in LF, Thames at DH, and Encarnacion at 1b.

I really don't want to mess with EE and getting him to split his time between hitting and D.

Bautista to 1b is the obvious long term play, let's put it in action now. Plus, subjectively, he looks bad in RF this year. I've seen him mess up more then a few throws into home that would have easily beat the runner had they been just a decent throw. We have good OF options. I know Jose wouldn't be overly thrilled obviously... it's delicate decision.

I think the difficulty with some of these moves is that it's hard to backtrack from them if they don't work out.

- If you DH Thames and play Sierra in LF, it sends the message to Thames that the organization lacks faith that he can develop into a competent LF (still possible, in my view). It might also cause his trade value to decrease.

- If you move Joey Bats to 1B, it triggers other potential consequences (outlined by Chuck above). It also might look bad, both to the players and outside observers, perhaps in an indirect way validating the "cheap Jays" criticism (i.e., why didn't the team address this issue in the offseason?)

- If you recall Snider before his wrist has healed or before he's developed the consistency the team wants to see - well, more problems. And neither Snider nor Sierra is proven in the majors.

Also: EE may well be gone after 2012, at which point you have to start shuffling the pieces all over again. For example, if you release Lind and play EE at 1B, what happens in 2012 when you have no first baseman and no DH?

Lastly: what the heck happened to Colby Rasmus? A couple of weeks ago it seemed we were all crowing about the team's shiny new 800+ OPS gold glove centerfielder. Now his OPS is back down to 637. Ugh.

"what happens in 2012 when you have no first baseman and no DH?"

In 2013, I mean.

I suspect few changes unless a trade happens. No one is forcing the issue (outside of Lind in a negative way) thus little incentive. If Cooper was hitting better than last year they'd be a bit of incentive. He is hitting 328/398/546 which is fine if it was the IL but in Vegas it is just OK as you pretty much need to knock 75 points off OBP and Slg thus pushing it down to 253/323/471 which slaughters Lind but isn't 'wow'. If instead it is 100 points you are down to 228/298/446 which, again, is better than Lind but not enough to force anything.

I have to think the Jays are frustrated though. 2 guys are not showing any signs of recovery in Lind and Bautista while JPA and Escobar have and Rasmus has waves of good followed by waves of suck.

Past 10 games...
Escobar: 300/349/425 - 774
JPA: 300/333/500 - 833
Rasmus: 129/229/129 - 358 (917 OPS in 10 before that)
Bautista: 194/268/417 - 685 (just 1 game all year with more than 1 hit)
Lind: 135/220/243 - 463 (4 multi-hit games)

So what to do? Rasmus is a hot/cold player which can be very useful as when he is on he is a big contributor and his defense is good enough. Lind has been cold and isn't showing any promising signs and his defense was never much. Bautista has yet to show any signs of recovery. Opening day was his 3 hit game, since then he has hit 165/296/311 - 607 which is only marginally better than Lind's overall line of 186/275/309 - 585. This is beyond a slump and has moved into 'uh oh' territory. If I ran the Jays I'd be having a big team go over video and look for what is wrong - is there an injury being hidden, is his bat speed down, what is it that is different? Check all the pitch fx data for Bautista from the past 2 years and compare to this year - is he swinging at pitches he never used to, is he getting certain pitches tossed a lot more often, etc.

In truth, every team should have a team of researchers on-hand at all times digging into data like that - going through video, doing charts, etc. in an effort to figure out what works/doesn't work for each player on their team so when ugly situations like this happen they will know what is wrong vs the past quickly. Then you need a manager & coaches who understand that stuff (or a translator to move from 'data speak' to 'manager speak') and can get the players to understand what they need to do.

Checking Rasmus in 10 game groupings...
1-10: 200/256/343 - 599
11-20: 278/333/583 - 917
21-30: 129/229/129 - 358

Wow, guess he is due for a big boom now :)

"Rasmus is a hot/cold player which can be very useful as when he is on he is a big contributor and his defense is good enough"

Is this demonstrably true? I've always been under the impression that "it all counts." Is a streaky 637 OPS player really more useful than a consistent 637 OPS player? I have my doubts. To me, a 637 OPS centerfielder just isn't good enough, especially in the AL East (where the competition is fielding Granderson, Ellsbury, Upton and Adam Jones in CF, whose respective career OPSes are 842, 804, 760 and 763 and, in several cases, have been trending upwards).

Let's not make excuses for or paper over what amounts to very poor performance.

By the way Travis Snider is back in the line-up for Vegas today and playing. He lined out in his first PA

Thank you neurolaw. I have been anxious for his return.

I'm still ready to make excuses for Rasmus. I think he's been hit harder by BABIP more than anyone on the team. He's been making consistently good contact since day one and I think he'll be fine.

Of note the top 4 hitters in the Vegas line-up have all really improved their play in May.
Hechavarria: .288/.388/.500 6:5 BB-K ratio!
Gose: .310/388/.500 6:9 BB-K ratio.
D'Arnaud .333/.375/.467 3:7 BB-K ratio
Sierra .314/.400/.571 5:11 BB-K ratio.

Of course unsurprisingly Vegas has been winning a lot of games recently.

I think I read something that showed how, while we all want consistency it is streakiness that helps most. IE: all else being equal, if you have two 650 OPS players it is better to have one who is hot/cold than one who is always the same.

A good example is pitching....
ERA of 6.00 - one guy goes 6 innings allowing 4 runs every single start, another goes 9 shut out innings one start, 3 the next allowing 8 runs, then a shut out, then 3 IP/8 ER, ...

Pitcher #1 will give you a shot in every game but you always need high offense to win - odds are you will be well sub-500 in his starts overall unless you have a killer offense. Pitcher #2 you will most likely win 1/2 his starts (or at least go into extras) while losing most of the other 1/2 unless your offense goes nuts.

I definitely think Rasmus deserves at least a full season to see what he can do. But if his sea level proves to be around a 637 OPS (or closer to the 517 mark he posted last year in Toronto), that to me is not good enough for an AL East centerfielder. His career OPS is over 100 points higher (746), which would be acceptable (albeit towards the lower end of acceptable), given his defensive capabilities.

Happy to see the top prospects at Vegas picking it up.

greenfrog - everyone here would agree that a sub-700 OPS at almost any position is unacceptable (except CA and SS if defense is strong). Rasmus has many good signs - a hot streak, high LD percentage, strong history pre-Toronto. I'd say he is there for 2012 and 2013 will be decided by a few factors - how Gose, Sierra, Snider do in AAA and Thames in the majors plus Bautista and where he is in 2013 will be a part of the equation.

2013 could easily see an outfield with Snider, Gose, Rasmus and Bautista at 1B with Thames as the DH/LF/1B (Lind released, Encarnacion gone via free agency). That outfield would be amazing defensively but offensively would probably be below average. The infield would then be Bautista-Hechavarria-Escobar-Lawrie, again very strong defensively (except maybe at 1B) and now strong offensively as well (except at either 2B or SS depending where Hechavarria plays).

So this year will be fun and if Bautista can put it back together then 2013 will be low scoring games galore with very happy pitchers.

Las Vegas won today in extra's, a 2-1 game in the PCL.

Watch out for Scott Richmond.  In his last three starts he has allowed just 11 hits in almost 20 innings.  And two of those starts were in LV.

Snider played today but went hitless.

#freeigarashi(?)

A little BABIP enlightenment. Jose Bautista .176.; Adam Lind .213; Colby Rasmus .250; Edwin Encarnacion .244 (remember, homers are excluded from BABIP); Brett Lawrie .315; Kelly Johnson .324.

 

[from two different posts by John N. today] 

. . . every team should have a team of researchers on-hand at all times . . .  going through video, doing charts, etc. in an effort to figure out what works/doesn't work for each player on their team so when ugly situations like this happen they will know what is wrong vs the past quickly. Then you need a manager & coaches who understand that stuff (or a translator to move from 'data speak' to 'manager speak') and can get the players to understand what they need to do.

*
. . .  one cannot help but wonder how different the game would be if the computer called balls & strikes based on the real zone vs the ump's personal one.

. . . I say go with 5 umps, one upstairs doing the setting of the strike zone for the computer who also reviews plays for error calls and for reviews in general - you know an ump wouldn't overrule another ump unless it was clearly a missed call.

Lordy, John.  You won’t be happy until the game is played by computers on a screen, will you? Or possibly by robots on the field.   Your obsession with numbers and technology as determinants for the game is pernicious.  IMO, of course.    I prefer chris taylor’s reminder that the game is played by people.  :)

With Cordero in hopefully a low leverage role for now, it would be a good time to make an Igarashi for Carreno swap. Igarashi could share a medium-leverage 7th-8th inning role with Frasor and Oliver.

Brett Cecil got the start for New Hampshire tonight, and was so-so for 4 innings. 

whiterasta80 I believe everything you said has been proven wrong by historic information / math.

"Las Vegas won today in extra's, a 2-1 game in the PCL.

Watch out for Scott Richmond.  In his last three starts he has allowed just 11 hits in almost 20 innings.  And two of those starts were in LV."

---

Any chance to see Richmond in Toronto this season, maybe when Hutchison would be sent down ?

As much as it is frustrating to watch... the only real difference between Bautista this year and in previous years is a jump in infield flies and a giant drop in HR/FB (and less walks than last year). He's never going to be a huge BABIP guy because he hits so many flyballs but he's gotten tremendously unlucky thus far this year.

The concern would be that HR/FB ratio just stays down (it is similar to his career numbers before his recent explosion) but the average and OBP are going to rise.