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Pitchers get a lot of recognition in these reports, pitching and defense are half of the game.  On Tuesday Chad Jenkins and Asher Wojciechowski pitched well to lead their teams to victory.  Aaron Sanchez pitched well, Justin Nicolino was OK, but the bullpen lost the Lugnuts game in the ninth.  The Las Vegas pitching staff had pitched well during their road trip but once they came back to the sin city, their ERA's have balloooned.  Scott Richmond was yesterdays victim.

Offensively, Jake Marisnick and Mike McDade hit their first home runs of the season.  Anthony Gose and AJ Jimenez had two run triples as part of a two hit day.  Jon Talley stayed hot with three more hits.



Colorado Springs 11  Las Vegas 6

Colorado Springs led 6-0 and 10-2 before the 51's scored some late runs.  Scott Richmond have up 6 runs in 3 innings and four of the five Las Vegas pitchers gave up runs.

Every Vegas hitter recorded a hit, Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra and Ricardo Nanita had two.  One of Gose's hits was a 2 run triple and he has moved his batting average in his last ten games up to .286.  He is recovering somewhat from a slow start.  Hechavarria made another error but I am not worried about it, I have seen him play and his defense is excellent.

 

New Hampshire 4  Binghamton 0

Chad Jenkins pitched six shutout innings, giving up six hits.  He was backed up by Clint Everts and Ron Uviedo to preserve the shutout.

The Fisher cats were facing prospect Zach Wheeler who the Mets acquired for Carlos Beltran last season.  The game was scoreless until the sixth inning when AJ Jimenez tripled in two runs and later scored on a ground out.  Mike McDade hit his first home run of the season in the ninth to provide some insurance.  McDade is the only hitter whose BA is above 300 for a Fisher Cat team whose offense appears to be a lot weaker than last years.  Brad McElroy and Jimenez had two hits each.

 

Dunedin 9  Tampa 1

Asher Wojciechowski seems to be back on track in 2012.  He pitched 5.1 innings, only allowing an unearned run, to lower his ERA to 3.38.  Wojo had 6 K's in his 5.1 innings.   Aleson Escalante, making his 2012 debut, pitched 2.2 innings in relief and Shawn Griffith finished off the ninth.

Michael Crouse doubled in the first and third innings and scored each time.  Jake Marisnick hit his first home run of the season, a two run shot, in the fourth.  Jon Talley continued his recent impressive play with three more hits, a couple of RBI's and a walk.  The Jays had 13 hits with every starter getting one.

 

Lansing 2  Peoria 6

This was a scoreless battle until the ninth inning.  Lansing had the first shot at the ninth and they scored twice,   Kevin Pillar led off the ninth with a single and a KC Hobson double helped bring him home.  Later andy Burns singled in the second run and it looked like the Lugnuts would win.  But Brandon Berl allowed a couple of hits then bobbled a bunt to load the bases with no one out.  Ajay Meyer came on to give up a game tying double, an intentional walk and a walk-off grand slam, ouch!

Aaron Sanchez started for Lansing and he pitched the usual three innings, and he was the usual Sanchez, namely a few walks (three), few hits (one) and lots of K's (seven).  He was followed by Justin Nicolino who was relatively lit up for five hits in his three innings but he managed to leave them all on base.  Kenny Wilson and Burns had two hits each.

 

Three Stars

3rd Star: (tie) Michael Crouse, AJ Jimenez

2nd Star: Asher Wojciechowski

1st Star: Chad Jenkins

 

Jenkins, Wojo, Sanchez, Shine | 38 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Hodgie - Wednesday, April 25 2012 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#255095) #
Travis Snider has opened the season with at least one hit in all 18 games he has played. What is encouraging is that he is not on one of those "I am seeing the ball so well I am going to swing at everything because who needs to walk" streaks. His BB:K of 10:11 in 74AB is excellent and unlike last season in Las Vegas he is driving the ball with authority (.312 ISO) again. His numbers are starting to resemble his 2009 AAA stats with a much better K rate. He also threw out another base runner at the plate last night. I wonder how long he will need to sustain this success before he is given another opportunity with the big club given that he would likely be an immediate upgrade for the offence and the outfield defence.
Krylian19 - Wednesday, April 25 2012 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#255099) #
#teamsnider



92-93 - Wednesday, April 25 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#255100) #
I don't know if Snider would be an immediate upgrade for the offence, but my god is Eric Thames a horrific outfielder. It's painful to watch.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 25 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#255113) #
Wojo gets back his mojo?
rtcaino - Wednesday, April 25 2012 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#255125) #
Oh behave.
See-Hech-In-July - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#255131) #
Farrell is very stubborn at times.

Drop Lind to 8th spot and let EE and lawrie sandwich Bautista.

No brainer !
greenfrog - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#255144) #
Kevin Goldstein (Insider piece) relays a scout's comments on Sanchez, Nicolino and Syndergaard. In short: Sanchez has impressed the most (plus curve and FB); Nicolino has great location and a plus change, but lacks velo (87-91), giving him a likely #4/5 projection; and Syndergaard was somewhat disappointing, throwing hard but with underwhelming secondary stuff.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16676
Gerry - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#255145) #
The comments in Goldstein's piece are not a surprise. I mentioned in a MLU earlier this week that Syndergaard had the highest WHIP on the team at that time. I said that looks like a guy just throwing, not pitching. Goldstein's scout comments bear that out. But you cannot teach velocity, and Syndergaard has a few years to develop his off-speed stuff to be major league caliber.

Syndergaard starts tonight for Lansing and I will be there to see it.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#255154) #
Gerry, looking forward to reading your report from Lansing.

Encouraging excerpt from Jim Callis's BA chat yesterday:

"Bret (Toronto): Any reason to be concerned about Travis d'Arnaud's slow start? I realize the sample size is still tiny, but it is Vegas after all...

Jim Callis: No reason for concern. Best catching prospect in the minors."
sam - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#255156) #
Thank you Greenfrog for the link. I agree with Gerry on this one. These reports are not at all surprising. It seems in these parts and perhaps maybe more so at other Jays related websites a certain holiness for Syndergaard and Nicolino. In the very little video I've seen of the two, Syndergaard does not have the arm action or feel for competent breaking ball and Nicolino will be an easy one to hit off at upper levels because guys will just sit on his average fastball. Sanchez is probably the only dynamic pitching prospect we have at full season ball right now with the ability for two really good pitches, but there are serious control issues there. Gerry is right that you can't teach velocity, but it is extremely difficult to teach secondary offerings as well. I would temper a lot of the enthusiasm for these guys.
92-93 - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#255162) #
I've read Syndergaard's curveball is very slow and loopy, something that may fool low-A hitters but will start getting exposed as Noah climbs the ladder.
mcpherv - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#255166) #
True, but I've also read that his secondaries have improved considerably since last season due to a great deal of off-season effort on his behalf, indicative of someone capable of self reflection and a drive to improve.

On Nicolino - I think that the issue is really whether his velocity improves a notch as he matures - he's listed at 6'3, 160 on MILB.com, so you'd have to think adding some muscle to his frame might significantly improve his strength and thus velocity. Who knows what'll happen though.

dan gordon - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#255173) #
I find that K:BB ratio is a very good tool for helping to determine how good a pitching prospect is.  For their pro careers, Nicolino is by far the best of the 3 so far.  He's at about 6:1, Wojciechowski is 3:1 and Sanchez is just over 2:1.  When you see a guy at 5:1, 6:1, that kind of thing, as long as he hasn't been held back at a level that is too low for his age/development, you've got something very interesting.  Look at Hutchison last year at almost exactly 5:1 combined at 3 levels.  Henderson Alvarez typically put up very good K:BB numbers as well. 
Lugnut Fan - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#255174) #

Having seen Syndergaard throw a couple of times, I semi agree with the scouts assesment.  I think his change up is pretty good, but his CB does need work.  There is ~ a 30 MPH differential between his CB and his FB.  He appears to slow his arm down when throwing that pitch and he looks like he is concentrating more on getting good break than throwing it for deception.  Hitters at the higher level will definitley pick up on the change in arm speed.  At times his CB looks very good, but it is inconsistent and I think he has an inconsistent release point.

The CB development is very important for him.  That will be the difference between him being a front of the rotation guy or a reliever in my opinion. 

sam - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#255179) #
dan, I'd have to disagree with you on that one. There is a very good reason that baseball clubs have professional scouting departments. The numbers at the minor league level lie more often than they speak to future success at the major league level. What you're looking for in a lot of these prospects are raw tools that will translate to success at the major league level. The K:BB rate says as much about the competition as it does the pitcher. For example, 90% of the guys Sanchez, Nicolino, and Syndergaard will not make it past AA. One or two might get a cup of coffee in the bigs, and maybe even one might stick. So they're facing significantly lower competition levels.

Then you look at the pitcher. OK, they're throwing strikes, or they throw 95. What's the motion like? They might be striking guys out with good fastballs, but anyone can hit a good fastball at the big leagues. Are they free and easy? Can they throw strikes with multiple offerings? How do their pitches compare to the major league level? What type of pitches are they striking people out with? These are pertinent questions that often don't come through in the stat lines.

Assumptions that guys will "add" velocity as they get older and stronger are often too misplaced. Does the delivery suggest increased arm speed and power? Does the frame suggest any added strength will go towards increased velocity?

So I think the stats are incredibly misleading. Seeing is believing in this business. You'll very rarely here management talk about a minor league stat line, however, they will comment on how the stuff was and the more visual components of the pitcher looked.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#255183) #
Case in point: Nestor Molina had 1.1 BB/9 IP and 10.2 K/9 IP across two levels last year, but he was left off most top 100 prospect lists and he seems to be viewed as a potential #4/5 starter. He's back in AA this year, where his walk rate is the same (still excellent) but his K rate is down to 6.1/9 IP.
sam - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#255186) #
Exactly greenfrog. I have a general observation that I was hoping some people might comment on.

One of the things that journalists covering the Jays have noted in recent years and certainly on display in Jays' related blogs and websites are a "new" type of fan who is much more knowledgeable of the sport and able to spew stats and various statistical analysis out on players at the drop of the hat. While I do not disagree with the ladder point, I do contest their increased knowledge. Moreover, it almost seems like these fans have missed the boat on the stat generation, at least how it relates to the Jays.

From my knowledge of how AA runs the baseball side of the franchise, statistical scouting has somewhat decreased in favour of real baseball scouting. In terms of prospects too, there are several websites now who aggregate online scouting reports of Blue Jays prospects and then make their own assessments/projections of the players. From what I can gather, at least in what they're saying about these guys, they have no idea what they're saying. I mean, phrases like "plus-plus" are given out willy-nilly based on the Baseball America definitions, and every pitcher in the minor leagues who throws 90 has the chance to throw 95. It's weird reading some of the stuff because you think every pitcher we have in the minor leagues is a year away from being Sandy Koufax or Nolan Ryan.
See-Hech-In-July - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#255191) #
Sam, the Pittsburgh Steelers have mentioned more then a couple of occasions that the secret to good drafts is studying how players perform in the game tape, not the NFL combine or stats.

That's where scouts make their money by interpeting performance versus situation.

The NFL fan combine is a fan junkie because anyone can be a scout with stats.

Scouting is a tough job, but the worst is being a umpire now in which replays and pitch location are automatically relayed to the hitters / pitchers.

sam - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#255194) #
See-Hech-In-July... huh?
See-Hech-In-July - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#255196) #
Moneyball vs Steelers old fashioned scouting approach
bpoz - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#255200) #
See Hech in July, Stats fooled me for years. Minor league & ST results used to paint a false picture for me until I realized that I had to take age & repeating a level into account.

I guess we all have our opinions. Guys like Hutch, Litsch, Janssen, Zep, Brad Mills & Scott Richmond rocketed through the minor league levels. Only B Mills & Hutch have had no success so far in the Majors IMO. I still think they have not had a decent shot at the Majors to say one way or the other, some what sporadic use for Mills & 5 IP for Hutch.

sam - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#255206) #
Sorry, thank you for that. I agree with you completely. I don't know if I'm frustrated or simply just puzzled sometimes to read some of the prognostications of some of the prospects nowadays. It seems like a lot of it is based off stats and selective reading of online scouting reports. I mean I often see something like this:

Said pitcher was reported to touch 95 in high school, therefore he will likely work at 95 in the pros and have a plus-plus fastball. It quickly spirals from there, to his body developing, if he can "smooth out" his mechanics and develop secondary pitches, to voila front end rotation type starter.

It really isn't as simple as that. I really enjoy Gerry's reports on prospects because he gives it to you pretty raw. I appreciate the videos that are up on the net too, I think that maybe opens the eyes of a lot of people as well. The first hand accounts of people like Lugnutfan and mamboon are much appreciated as well.

I guess people are just selective in what they want to hear and see on Jays prospects.
dan gordon - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#255208) #

sam, I have to disagree with you.  Bill James did a lot of studies on K:BB ratio as a predictor of future success and it graded out very well, indeed.  The statement that numbers at the minor league level lie more often than they speak to future success is demonstrably false.  Another of the "old saws" that baeball people used to use that James showed was untrue.  Of course, the stats are not always going to give you a 100% reliable gauge of a player's future, but they're certainly a useful tool.

Have a look at the K:BB ratios of top mlb pitchers when they were in minors and you'll see how good their numbers were.   

mcpherv - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#255211) #
Sam, I'm going to assume that my comments played a role in prompting your frustrated posts.
Let me qualify what I stated here - I don't think that uniformly the Jays pitching prospects are going to add 5 miles an hour, develop Maddux-esque control and Kershaw's curveball. What I mentioned, and what I think you may be losing in what you're reading elsewhere is people identifying indicators to suggest projection. Obviously there is a slim chance that Nicolino starts throwing 95. However, there is a reasonable chance to think that adding 20 pounds of muscle *may* take him from 87-91 to something like 89-91 or 89-92. That velocity, *if he also improves his secondary offerings* makes his upside higher than just a 4-5 hole starter IMO. Odds on him realizing all of this? I don't know - maybe 30%? But you also have Syndergaard, who also has question marks regarding his secondaries, along with Sanchez who has question marks with respect to his control. Even if you were to assign a 15-20% probability to each of them achieving close to their upside, you have a good chance of the organization having 2 or 3 reasonable mlb caliber pitchers each with 6 years of team control, with a chance at having a front of the rotation pitcher. What is wrong with being optimistic when you have that many lottery tickets?

I agree that there are underlying factors that affect projectability - including their mechanics, etc. I agree that not every pitcher will add significant velocity as a result of physical conditioning and physical maturity, but it is reasonable to suggest that a high school pick with a big frame and who is currently significantly under his eventual weight *may* add some velocity.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#255212) #
I don't think this necessarily deserves its own thread, but certainly worth noting when a long-time veteran gets his walking papers ...

Tigers release Brandon Inge: 'My heart will always be in Detroit'
Gerry - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#255220) #
I have to warm up after my night at the ballpark but here are some quick impressions.

Syndergaard sat 92-94 with his FB. Remember it was a really cold night and by all reports Syndergaard is normally a MPH or so faster. Syndergaard had good command of his FB and was generally around the plate. The two hardest hit balls off him were off change-ups he left up in the zone. The change didn't do much in general. Syndergaard threw four curves by my count (70 mph) and and two of those were strike three, one swinging, one taken.

DeSclafani had a very easy motion and was around 91-92 wth his FB. He also showed a good slider which he mixed in well.

Ybarra was two different pitchers. In the first he looked very good, in his second inning his FB was two MPH slower and his command disappeared. He did have to sit for a while as the Luggies scored twice between his innings. Ybarra sort of short-arms the ball and whips his arm through for a unusual delivery.

More to come....
85bluejay - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#255221) #
Travis Snider replaced in Las Vegas game - Why?
Gerry - Thursday, April 26 2012 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#255222) #
Snider - hurt his wrist

K:BB - works well at AAA and AA, less well at A ball as junky pitchers can get K's at the lower levels.
rtcaino - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#255223) #
Arg - bad news day, between Snider's wrist and McGowan's shouler.

Thanks for sharing your observations, Gerry. I am very much looking forward to your additional comments.

metafour - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#255224) #
I think that over-analyzing Syndergaard is a mistake.  For those that forgot; this kid was 17 years and 9 months old on draft day.  BaseballProspectus put out an article about a year ago that delved super-deep into the impact that age played on the potential value a highschool hitter could generate over an MLB career.  It didn't analyze pitchers because they have a far less predictable "age-curve" than hitters do; but under the parameters of this study Syndergaard would have fallen under the most fruitful "Very Young" category meaning that not only is he young in a baseball sense by being a recently drafted HS pitcher; but he is actually very young even in comparison to the HS players of his own class.  For instance; he is actually 3/4ths of a full year younger than Nicolino who came out of the same HS class.  The fact that this kid can already command a hard fastball at his age should be more than enough reason to get excited...being able to command a fastball is like 7/10ths of the battle in pitching.  Give him another year before you start pigeon holing his secondary stuff.
Mike Green - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#255230) #
Prospecting 19 year old pitchers in A ball is a bit like panning for gold.  No method, stats-based, scouting-based or a combination, has any reasonable success rate.  Combinations probably work best, perhaps with a somewhat greater input from the scouting base, but the differences are, in my view, small.

The best high school pitching prospect of the last 30 years may very well have been Dwight Gooden.  At 18, he was in high A ball, striking out 14 batters per 9 innings, walking 5/9IP and posting a 2.50 ERA.  The Mets called him up the next year; he was outstanding and walked 3/9IP in the majors. 

bpoz - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#255238) #
Good point Mike Green. Gooden HS. Roger Clemens college. I think Gooden was the 1st HS pitcher selected. I think Clemens went #16 in the 1st round.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#255409) #
Prospecting 19 year old pitchers in A ball is a bit like panning for gold.  No method, stats-based, scouting-based or a combination, has any reasonable success rate.  Combinations probably work best, perhaps with a somewhat greater input from the scouting base, but the differences are, in my view, small.

The best high school pitching prospect of the last 30 years may very well have been Dwight Gooden.  At 18, he was in high A ball, striking out 14 batters per 9 innings, walking 5/9IP and posting a 2.50 ERA.  The Mets called him up the next year; he was outstanding and walked 3/9IP in the majors.



I cobbled together a dominance rating, basically weighing strikeouts against hits,walks and homeruns. [For those interested it is K/((niw+hr)*.5+ hits*.3)]

It really must be a coincidence, but I was looking at the stats of 19-year old pitchers in low A ball, and for the most part, there is a mixed bag as to predictive value. I have a feeling that the really dominant ones, barring injury, are very likely to succeed, but the ones that have an "ordinary" level of dominance need things to fall right for them in their further development.. Cole Hamels' numbers are the best I've found so far (Gooden was at A+ as a 19 year - an altogether different kettle of fish). Bundy is set to blow away Hamels' numbers unless he is promoted soon.

Here's a non-exhaustive list for the SALLY league over the past few decades:

2003 C Hamels 5.20
2006 will inman 3.72
2003 S Kazmir 3.28
2010 robbie erlin 3.15
2000 Chin-hui tsao 3.13
2004 chuck tiffany 2.92
2011 cody buckel 2.86
1983 kevin a brown 2.75
2001 A wainwright 2.58
1995 larry wimberly 2.47
1991 john roper 2.47
1985 T glavine 2.36
2011 J Taillon 2.30


I'll try to include a list of some 19 year-olds in A+ ball.

robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#255410) #
Here are some selected teenagers at High-A ball:

1998 rick ankiel 18 3.60
2004 matt cain 19 3.13
1983 doc gooden 18 3.07
2003 zach grienke 19 3.02
1996 kerry wood 19 2.28
2010 jacob turner 19 2.09
1983 bret saberhagen 19 2.00
1986 john smoltz 19 1.05

robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#255412) #
I think Gooden was the 1st HS pitcher selected.

I believe he was 2nd: a guy named Jimmy Jones was selected before him.

Bill James wrote extensively about high school pitchers being over-drafted. I believe he did this in the early 80s. In the first decade of the draft an average of 3.2 high school pitchers were drafted among the first 10 picks per year. In the period 1971-1980, this number started to decline, until 1983-1992 and 1984-1993, when this figure hit an all-time low of 1.2 high school pitchers per year out of the top 10 picks.

Was this an effect of James' work, or did a lot of teams figure out they were getting too many flame outs among their high school pitchers? I suspect the latter. In any case, 1976-77 was the high water mark with 9 pitchers drafted out of the 20 possible top 10 players. Bill Gullickson and Steve Trout turned out to be the best of these.

From the low water mark, there was a rebound until 1993-2002 (2.2 per year), a plateau and a slow decline since then. The most recent period (2002-2011) checks in with 1.7 per year.
Mike Green - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#255417) #
I'd be interested if the exhaustive list of dominant teenage pitchers (say over 3.0) at high A is as impressive as the non-exhaustive list. 

Incidentally, Nicolino is 20, Aaron Sanchez will be turning 20 on July 1 (the precise boundary day for baseball age) and Syndergaard is a few months younger. 

robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#255443) #
I'd be interested if the exhaustive list of dominant teenage pitchers (say over 3.0) at high A is as impressive as the non-exhaustive list.

It's a rather short list. From 1990 to 2011 inclusive, among teenage pitchers with at least 10 starts, only 5 have achieved 3.00 or better at Advanced-A. So that is less than one every four years on average:

1998 Rick Ankiel 3.60 (18 years old)
1991 Pedro Martinez 3.56
2010 John Lamb 3.50
2004 Matt Cain 3.13
2003 Zach Greinke 3.02

The next three on the list (2.70 to 3.00) are Julio Teheran, Tyler Skaggs and an 18-year old Felix Hernandez.

Incidentally, EIGHT 20-year olds and FIFTEEN 21-year olds had a 3.00+ dominance rating at Advanced A 1990-2011 (10 or more starts). So about 1.3 pitchers on average per year who are aged 21 or under have a 3.00 dominance season (10+starts) at Advanced A

This is a little indication of why I sometimes say that Rick Ankiel had the most impressive minor league pitching stats I have ever seen.

Mike Green - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#255450) #
Of course, Pedro did that in the California League.  His dominance+ would be even better.  It does seem that if a pitcher is absolutely dominant in high A ball at age 19, he has a decent chance to be great. Very few pitchers are dominant, though, and most greater pitchers out of high school or from Latin America (Halladay, Maddux, Smoltz, Santana) were not really close to dominant at age 19. 

Thanks, Robert, for a useful screen. 
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