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The Red Sox come to town after being blown out of Detroit, losing all three games by a combined 26-14 margin. I'm not sure which of their three losses was worse - coming back to tie it at 2-2 in the 9th on Friday, the first blown save by Jose Valverde in a year, only to then lose it in the bottom half of the inning? Getting wrecked 10-0 on Saturday? Or blowing leads of 7-5, 9-7, 10-7 and 12-10, finally falling on a two out, two run home run to Alex Avila in the bottom of the 12th. From the opposite end of the spectrum, they were really all quite enjoyable.

Will the Jays be able to keep the beat alive against the suddenly seemingly vulnerable Red Sox? All this, and more (well, not really), on a new episode of Advance Scout.

If you think the Jays have rotation problems you should see the Red Sox. Converted relievers Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront are their 4th and 5th starters, and their second and third starters just got lit up like Christmas trees. Dice-K and John Lackey are on the disabled list, both for a while, which might actually be a plus.

Monday: Daniel Bard vs. Henderson Alvarez Ed note: I flipped Bard and Doubront, it's correct in the chart. The lesson as always: the chart is God.

Daniel Bard hasn't started a real baseball game since high-A ball in 2007, but finds himself in the Red Sox rotation thanks to a bevy of talent and a dearth of other options. In 2011 Bard posted an ERA of 3.33 while striking out more than a batter an inning; he also lowered his walk rate to below 3 for the first time as a major leaguer, and brought his groundball percentage above 50% for the first time to boot. All of these are good things, and resulted in the best FIP and xFIP numbers of his career. He makes his first career start against the Jays, the team he faced in his first career appearance (he gave up a run). As for how long he'll last in the starting rotation is anyone's guess. The notoriously level-headed and long-term thinking Boston media already want Bard moved back to the pen. New manager Bobby Valentine is apparently also in this camp, but has been given firm orders by the new, post-Theo braintrust to keep Bard in the rotation. We'll see how long this lasts. In any case, Bard is likely to succeed wherever he ends up. Bard throws hard , averaging 97 MPH with the fastball as a reliever and apparently sitting 94-96 in spring training. If hitters start catching up to the fastball then they also have to contend with his other plus pitch, a slider he threw about a quarter of the time as a reliever. He also mixed in a change, which I imagine he'll start throwing more of as a starter. For what it's worth Bard got knocked around plenty in spring training, walking 16 in 24.1 innings against 18 Ks. Career Adam Lind is 1 for 6, while Jose Bautista and Yunel Escobar are both 0 for 6. Edwin Encarnacion is the only Jay with any success; he's 2 for 5.

Tuesday: Felix Doubront v. Kyle Drabek

Felix Doubront is another starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter, albeit one who was pitching from the windup more recently. Doubront came through the Red Sox system as a starter before making his big league debut as a spot starter/reliever in 2010, making three starts and nine pen appearances. Doubront was injured for part of 2011, and a result made 16 relatively mediocre starts in AAA before spending September in the Red Sox again, where he pitched 10.1 innings. With the injuries to the Red Sox staff the decision was made to convert him back to starting, and here he is. As a starter Doubront sits from 90-94 as a starter, with a deceptive three-quarters delivery that causes the pitch to apparently tail. His best offering is probably his slightly screwy changeup, which comes in at 79-91. He also throws a fairly inconsistent curveball. Jose Bautista has a home run off him in 3 at bats.

Wednesday: Jon Lester v. Ricky Romero

Stephen Harper will probably not be in attendance for this getaway game as two of the American League East's premiere Lefties face off. I don't know what more to say about Lester at this point. He beat cancer, started the deciding game of a World Series, and threw a no-hitter; he has become one of the best and most consisten pitchers in baseball, throwing four straight years of 190 innings and sub 3.50 ball. 2012 got off to a similar start as he allowed 6 hits and 1 run in 7 innings against the Tigers in that ill-fated Red Sox opener. Lester throws a couple of different fastballs, a four-seamer in the mid-90s, as well as a sinker and a cutter. He'll also throw a change and occasional curveball, relying more on the breaking stuff towards the end of games. He mixes speeds well, as those four pitches can range from anywhere between about 74 and 94 MPH. The fastball, while good, is more of a setup pitch, while he really wrecks hitters with his change up and excellent high-80s cutter. Lifetime JP Arencibia is 4/14 with a homer and 2 walks while Yunel Escobar is 5/16 with 2 walks; after this it gets ugly. Jose Bautista is 8/39, Adam Lind 3/24, and Rajai Davis and Edwin Encarnacion are both 2/14. Did I mention that in 111.2 career innings the Jays are hitting .196/.287/.307 against Lester?

The Lineup

Even with (especially because of?) Carl Crawford being out for a couple more weeks, the Red Sox boast one of the strongest lineups in baseball, with three legitimate MVP candidates hitting at the top of the order.

Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Alex Gonzalez 1B
David Ortiz DH
Kevin Youkilis 3B
Ryan Sweeney RF
Cody Ross LF
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Mike Aviles SS

While it appears things drop off after Youk that isn't quite the case. Kelly Shoppach gives the Red Sox a pretty deadly catcher platoon, as he murders left-handers, while Salty has a career .770 OPS against righties. When Carl Crawford returns from injury Sweeney and Ross figure to form a left/right platoon in right. That just leaves Aviles, who basically ended up with the starting job after the Red Sox essentially gave away Marco Scutaro. Jose Iglesias is theoretically the future, but he is an all-glove guy who couldn't hit at double or triple-A.  Speaking of Hot Carl, he had wrist surgery and is about to start action in extended spring training, possible returning as soon as late April. Despite not getting the two-year contract extension he wanted (he signed for $14.575 in arbitration) David Ortiz still managed to win the chocolate bunny award for his Easter Sunday performance... Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are three of the twenty most popular jerseys in baseball for the 2011 calendar year, with Pedroia leading the Red Sox at 7th in baseball. Five bonus points for guessing who's first (no looking). Doc is 5th, for what it's worth.

The Infirmary: Carl Crawford LF, 15-day DL (wrist), Andrew Bailey RP, 60-day DL (thumb), Ryan Kalish OF, 60-day DL (shoulder), John Lackey SP, 60-day DL (TJ Surgery), Daisuke Matsuzaka SP, 60-day DL (right elbow), Andrew Miller SP, 15-day DL (hamstring). Crawford and Miller could be back by the end of the month, Bailey, Kalish and Matsuzka by the All-Star break.

The Chart: All data from Fangraphs, for the 2011 season.


Advance Scout: Red Sox, April 9-11 | 121 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#254151) #
I see 5 very good hitters on the Sox, and 3 of them (Ellsbury, Ort, and Youk) with rather large question marks of whether they can sustain that kind of hitting going forward. The rest of the lineup is replacement level. They may have scored the most runs in the league last year, but that was with most all of their hitters having career or near career years (from guys like Ells, Gonzo, and Ort to support guys like Salty, Reddick, and Scoots). Should still be a good offense this year, and can be scary in any given series, but I'm not sure they'll be piling up as many runs as last year.

I see 3 good starting pitchers on the Sox, and 2 of them (Beckett, Buchholz) with rather large question marks on whether they can sustain that kind of pitching going forward. Beckett is notoriously inconsistent from year to year, and only good not great on 'average', and is experience some longterm issues with his throwing hand, while Buchholz not only faces the spectre of regressing to his FIP/xFIP numbers, but also has decided to dramatically change his windup mechanics in light of his injury last year.

Meanwhile, their bullpen is a real dog's breakfast at this point.

This is a very beatable team, IMO.
92-93 - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#254152) #
"Stephen Harper will probably not be in attendance for this getaway game as two of the American League East's premiere Lefties face off."

Nice.

I believe Doubront is pitching tonight, with Bard going tomorrow. Better get an early start to the series because we don't fare well vs. Lester, a guy I love to watch pitch.

The Red Sox are carrying a backup C, Darnell McDonald, and Nick Punto. Remind me not to complain about our bench.
Dave Rutt - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#254154) #
The rest of the lineup is replacement level.

On the contrary. As Anders mentioned, Shoppach and Salty should form an extremely effective platoon if they're deployed that way. If you go purely by career splits, a strict platoon should hit for about a 125 OPS+. That would be approximately Brian McCann.

(with the caveat that Shoppach's career numbers against lefties are influenced by a high BABIP and are in less than a full season's worth of PAs. Still, it should be well above average, let alone replacement level.)
Mike Green - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#254157) #
The Lester-Romero game would be a natural for one-run strategies.  As it seems that very few on this club can bunt, and only two can steal bases, I guess that means (hopefully) some hitting and running. 

The Sox bullpen put in a lot of mileage this weekend.  I wonder how patient the Jay lineup will be tonight. 

Sano - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#254159) #
The Blue Jays official site has the first match-up as Alvarez v. Doubront.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_04_09_bosmlb_tormlb_1&mode=preview&vkey=preview_web_home&c_id=tor
PeteMoss - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#254160) #
The thing I note about Bard is that he was a walk machine as a starter in the minors and he was walking a ton again in the spring (16 walks in 24 innings).
sam - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#254167) #
For those interested, sportsnet.ca has a pretty comprehensive pre-game assortment of interviews and such. Jose Bautista is on right now and they're actually talking baseball and the more finer points of the game and the organization. It's pretty good, much better than the fluff that usually gets written.
Magpie - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#254168) #
most all of their hitters having career or near career years (from guys like Ells, Gonzo, and Ort

With one exception - Gonzalez was recovering from shoulder surgery to repair his labrum last season. He had a pretty nice year, but his HR power was down considerably. He's capable of being even better than what he gave Boston last year. If he's completely recovered, he's not just far and away the best first baseman in the division (which he was anyway, come to think of it) - he's the best in the majors.
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#254169) #
If they can really hit, Toronto will sweep this series.   If they can't hit that well, it will be a lot more work to win.   I can only think not winning all three will be a missed opportunity.   Boston is down, let's take advantage if we can.   Every team might have a chance to play a team when they are hurting, when they are down, why not Toronto?
TamRa - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#254170) #
"This is a very beatable team, IMO."

Concur. I'm reasonably confident the Jays will finish ahead of them this year, with reasonable health.

Mike Green - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#254171) #
Alex Gonzalez 1B

He wasn't only recovering from labrum surgery.  He also was battling a severe identity crisis involving name, position and strike zone judgment.  Amazingly, he did not succumb.
Alex Obal - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#254172) #
There's blood in the water, as a reeling divisional rival staggers into a buzzsaw of a hornet's nest. I've been this excited for Jays/Red Sox games before, but never sadistically giddy. I could get used to this. I just hope the blood isn't from all the dead hornets who drowned or were somehow electrocuted when someone operated the saw underwater.

The first two games are going to be wacky. I am a huge Alvarez fan, but I'm keeping my expectations in check for tonight against Boston's stacked left-leaning lineup.
Nolan - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#254174) #
"If he's completely recovered, he's not just far and away the best first baseman in the division (which he was anyway, come to think of it) - he's the best in the majors."

There is maybe an argument for this in the long term, but right it looks like Pujols and Votto are better. Pujols had his worst season last year....and it would be right in line with Gonzalez top years.
Mike Green - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#254175) #
Alvarez didn't have any significant platoon differential last year, and he did not seem at all fazed by the Sox lineup last Labour Day.  Then again, he didn't seem fazed by much. 
Nolan - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#254176) #
Also, while Cabrera is now a third baseman, he might not last long. He is definitely a better player than Gonzalez (in fact, Fielder is the equal of a hitter to Gonzalez while being an inferior player).
Mike Green - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#254177) #
FWIW, BBRef has Pujols as the age leader in WAR among first basemen, just ahead of Foxx and Gehrig.   He gets the nod due to his superior defensive abilities.  I don't know if that is right, but I do know that he is right there. 
Alex Obal - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#254178) #
Gonzalez has been underrated for years due to park factors (pre-2011) and injury (2011). I think he is about to get massively overrated in a hurry. Which is a really self-righteous and arrogant way of saying I agree with Magpie.
Anders - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#254179) #
I believe Doubront is pitching tonight, with Bard going tomorrow. Better get an early start to the series because we don't fare well vs. Lester, a guy I love to watch pitch.

Thanks, this changed at some point because I looked at this two or three times. I assume they want to break up Doubront and Lester...

Anders - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#254180) #
Thanks, this changed at some point because I looked at this two or three times. I assume they want to break up Doubront and Lester...

But it's right in the chart. I'm so confused.

Nolan - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#254181) #
"Gonzalez has been underrated for years due to park factors (pre-2011) and injury (2011). I think he is about to get massively overrated in a hurry. Which is a really self-righteous and arrogant way of saying I agree with Magpie."

Perhaps in perception, but in value he is probably the fourth or fifth best 1st baseman in the Majors. I could buy that hitting at Petco affects how a players hits and by moving to a new stadium, he has a good chance at besting his previous production.

Feels like I'm arguing that he's not that great, but he's a great player with an amazing contract - much better than Pujols, Votto, or Fielder....on par with Cabrera.
Mike Green - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#254183) #
Encarnacion batting cleanup, Lind fifth, Lawrie sixth and Rajai Davis in left-field hitting seventh tonight against the left-hander.  Not what I would do, but it does open some interesting possiblities.
Gerry - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#254186) #
it's fun to watch Alvarez pitch, his fastball has a lot of movement.
Mick Doherty - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#254188) #
Boyoboyo, Yu Darvish looks ... un-great. First inning, four runs, 42 pitches, just 22 strikes. Ranger Nation hopes this is just nerves.
Kelekin - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#254189) #
Is it just me or are umpires calling a ton of strikes as balls tonight?
Alex Obal - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#254191) #
Hitters need all the help they can get this year?
Mick Doherty - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#254192) #

Yu settles down a little in the second after the Rangers score two of their own in the first. 13 pitches,two hits, one run, his third strikeout of the game through 2 IP. Ichiro has two base hits, an RBI single and a double, so he's halfway to a natural cycle, which might break the entire Japanese media machine.

Yu's career MLB ERA is now "down" to 22.50 ...

greenfrog - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#254193) #
Solid start for Alvarez so far (even with the Pedroia HR). If he can pitch like this on opening night in Toronto against Boston...well, let's just say it bodes well for his future.
Mike Green - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#254194) #
And the hitters at least work Doubront for 100 pitches in 5 innings, so that they get to face a tired Sox pen. 
greenfrog - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#254195) #
Random observations:

I really wish Arencibia was better at controlling the strike zone as a hitter. He could be a really good offensive player with another 20-30 walks per year. Nice play to gun down Papi, though. His defense looks better so far this year.

Nice game for Rasmus so far: the catch, the triple, the baserunning and slide into home.

Lind: outstanding defense, sketchy offense. Will he last the season at first?

KJ is off to a hot start and looks very comfortable at the plate and in the field.

Strong relief outings from Oliver and Cordero. Having a good bullpen is pretty nice - well worth the investment IMO.
grjas - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#254196) #
Yikes. 3 mediocre to poor outings in a row for SAntos. Out of 3. Yeah it's early but this is seriously disappointing. At least there are options if he can't turn it around
sam - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#254197) #
Oh JP Arencibia, you had us fooled for a little while there, but you'll always be a liability behind the plate.
TamRa - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#254198) #
"And the hitters at least work Doubront for 100 pitches in 5 innings, so that they get to face a tired Sox pen. "

That worked out well.

Ya neva know.

Anyone know when Santos is joining the team?

;)


(I'm NOT down on him but what's in the water in Toronto with the closers?)
adrianveidt - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#254199) #
The Blue Jays are obviously telling Santos to blow those saves -- "blow them like nobody's ever blown a save before."
I just can't figure out why?
Jonny German - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#254200) #
I really wish Arencibia was better at controlling the strike zone as a hitter.

That's a strange comment following a game in which he saw 19 pitches in 4 plate appearance (4.75 per) and drew a walk. Curtis Granderson led the majors last year at 4.44 per.
rtcaino - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#254201) #
FWIW, BBRef has Pujols as the age leader in WAR among first basemen, just ahead of Foxx and Gehrig.   He gets the nod due to his superior defensive abilities.  I don't know if that is right, but I do know that he is right there. 

Doesn't seem like a fair comparison. (Assuming defensive metrics in 1929 were a touch less reliable than the ones we have today.)

Chuck - Monday, April 09 2012 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#254202) #
Bear in mind that a high average number of pitches per plate appearance has, as components, more than just the ability to discern strikes from balls. A propensity to swing and miss (rather than swing and put the ball in play) plays a role as well.

If a batter swings at the second pitch of a plate appearance, he is effectively trying to end the at-bat right then and there. If his swing misses, causing his plate appearance to continue, it was his failure at making contact that is now perhaps contributing to the illusion that he likes to see many pitches and is a patient hitter.

A better metric to perhaps gauge strike zone judgment would be the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that were not swung at.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#254205) #
"That's a strange comment following a game in which he saw 19 pitches"

I confess I didn't carefully ensure that my general impression of Arencibia's approach was matched by a corresponding low # of pitches seen during the game in question. I did first check his BB:K ratio and OBP over his 486 PA last year (36:133 and .282), which seemed to confirm what I was seeing with my own eyes (call me unsophisticated).
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#254206) #

Randomness:

Did the Jays get too cute with Santos in spring training -I think he went about 2 weeks without pitching in a spring game - this is a guy who's not a proven closer - As he got into more trouble, Santos seemed to get angrier and tried to throw harder, which made things worse - I wonder if the Jays might switch him & Cordero for a few weeks as Texas did with Feliz last year.

I hope Bautista was paying attention to Big Papi going the other way to get some hits

Kelly Johnson seems headed for a big year - with Kinsler & Phillips likely locked up, he could cash in big - which is great as long as it's not with the Jays

Some posters were pimping for the Jays to select Chris Sale in 2010 instead of (Upper) Deck McGuire (I think I liked Tyrell Jenkins) - take a bow as Sale looked very good in his 1st start last night - would look great in the Jays rotation  - Saw our friend Alex("it's all good") Rios  lackadaisically  drop a routine fly ball - robin ventura was not amused.

Graham Godfrey (36th rd, 2006 draft), whom the Jays traded in the Scutaro deal, makes his 1st start for the A's tonight - nice to see a late pick make it -good ballpark to pitch - so the A's actually got something and not just salary relief  

     

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#254207) #
Santos worked on his secondary stuff in Spring Training, namely his change up, because it's needed.
Santos has forgotten his best pitch is his fastball, to both sides of the plate. He'll figure it out. Call last night an object lesson in the learning curve of young pitchers, dealing with adversity.
rfan8 - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#254208) #

Santos looks like he is overthrowing.  The batters also look impatient (including Bautista) swinging at borderline pitches and as a result hitting weak groundballs and popups.  Hopefully they will settle down, take some pitches and get some runners on.  I thought they might after the first couple of at bats last night where Escobar and Johnson saw a lot of pitches but it never seemed to materialize.  The team obp is pretty low (yahoo says .266)

On the bright side, Alvarez and Morrow were very good.

 

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#254209) #
Can anyone bring back some nice southern air to warm up the bats?

Arencibia has struck out 7 times in 15 at-bats.  You will usually see a lot of pitches when you strike out.  I don't really mind that he strikes out a lot, but I do mind when he swings and misses (often) at pitches way outside the zone.  I also mind that he apparently does not describe this as part of the game that he is working on (as he has described the defensive element). 

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#254211) #
Arencibia's hardly alone - no one's hitting, no one's walking. Lawrie matches Arencibia's 1/7 bb/k rate, and Yunel is just behind at 1/6. Rasmus, at least, has made consistent contact, with a mere 1 walk & 2 Ks, but it's been consistently terrible contact.

Everyone but Bautista & Johnson sucks right now.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#254212) #
No question.  And even Bautista looks out of sync.

When I speak of my concerns with Arencibia, it is not about his performance this year but a general concern with players of his type.  Snider, of course, has similar issues to Arencibia, but at a lower level.  And lord knows he has been working on them. 

Gerry - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#254213) #

As a team Toronto are hitting .199, 12th in the AL and better than just Cleveland and Minnesota.  Their OBP is .266, only Minnesota is worse.  Kelly Johnson and Jose Bautista are the only regulars with OBP's over 300 and most of the team is at 250 or under.

When Arencibia hit to right field in the spring and talked about doing that more this season I was encouraged.  I have seen no signs of that approach since the regular season started.

Santos is likely overthrowing.  I interviewed him for Da Box back when he was a shortstop in Syracuse and I can see him as trying to live up the expectations of the trade and being over eager to start his career here.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#254214) #
Team .564ops is starting to hurt.

Four games so far and every game has been a 1 run game or less in the 9th. We could use a little breathing space one of these games.

At least Alvarez is nails, though.

And I remember when I thought Pedroia was the worst MVP of all time. Stupid me. That little guy is awesome.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#254216) #
It would be nice if Santos's next couple of save opportunities came with two- or three-run leads. There must have been a lot of pressure in a 2-1 game in front of 50,000-odd fans at the RC (with the anticipation no doubt building in Santos's mind in the late innings).

It will be interesting to see how Drabek responds tonight. There is a lot of pressure on him too. The patient Boston hitters are going to put him to the test.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#254217) #
With one exception - Gonzalez was recovering from shoulder surgery to repair his labrum last season. He had a pretty nice year, but his HR power was down considerably. He's capable of being even better than what he gave Boston last year. If he's completely recovered, he's not just far and away the best first baseman in the division (which he was anyway, come to think of it) - he's the best in the majors.

Not sure I agree with that. Last year's .380babip was a huge jump over his previous years (.322/.278/.308/.315/.340/.257), and pretty much unsustainable (even the best of the best BABIP guys can't keep it over .350) and was a big part of him setting career highs in AVG (.338) OBP (.410) and OPS (.968), despite both his walk rate and his ISO being down last year. Looks like he changed his approach a bit last year turning more into a contact hitter than a patience/power guy, but even with a change in approach a .380babip is unsustainable.

As for him being the best 1B in baseball? I can't agree there. Maybe if you consider him a super-elite defensive 1B there might be some argument there but offensively, even with his career year last year, he wasn't as good as Fielder or Cabrera at the plate, and barely ahead of Votto and Pujols in their "down" years. And I'd take all 4 of those guys ahead of Gonzo as my 1B, all things being equal.
Dewey - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#254219) #
That little guy is awesome.

Pedroia.  So right, even if I hate saying it.

But what about that pitch Alvarez made to Youkilis in the 6th last night?  Starts to go outside, then swerves abruptly in over the plate.  Gives yet more new meaning to the word “filthy”. 
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#254220) #
The offense (outside of KJ) has been bad, but this is the kind of thing that people only notice this time of year.  It's been four (4) games.  That's it.  If this four game minislump happens in the middle of June or whatever, no one notices.  They'll break out soon enough.

Santos was *terrible* last night.  But it seems a combination of nerves and maybe lack of pitching during ST.  His stuff is great, he'll get it straightened out too. 

hypobole - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#254222) #
Rasmus, at least, has made consistent contact .... but it's been consistently terrible contact.

This isn't what I've been seeing; to me he seems to be making very good contact, so you made me look it up. Zero popups, GB and FB rates lower than any other year. 25% LD rate. (FWIW only 5 players in MLB last year were 25%). Colby's actual problem this year is not following the old saw "hit 'em where they ain't"
92-93 - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#254223) #
"Rasmus, at least, has made consistent contact, with a mere 1 walk & 2 Ks, but it's been consistently terrible contact"

We must be watching different games. Rasmus has been taking very good ABs.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#254224) #
"Kelly Johnson seems headed for a big year - with Kinsler & Phillips likely locked up, he could cash in big - which is great as long as it's not with the Jays"

Right. Why would the Blue Jays want someone coming off a big year, one of the better 2Bs in the game? Gotta penny pinch.
Beyonder - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#254226) #
Carlos Santana re-signs for 21 million over 5, with a club option for an undisclosed sum.   Buys him out of four years club control.  Not a perfect comp at all, but if Lawrie has the rookie season we are hoping for, this might give us a flavour of what it will take to sign him. 
uglyone - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#254227) #
Career Offensive stats of current MLB 2B (min 500pa):

1) C.Utley (33): 4778pa, .882ops, .384woba, 132wRC+
2) D.Pedroia (28): 3220pa, .837ops, .369woba, 122wRC+
3) I.Kinsler (30): 3464pa, .827ops, .365woba, 120wRC+
4) R.Cano (29): 4432pa, .842ops, .359woba, 118RC+
5) D.Uggla (32): 4060pa, .822ops, .354woba, 115wRC+
6) R.Weeks (29): 3356pa, .790ops, .352woba, 115wRC+
7) B.Zobrist (31): 2471pa, .783ops, .345woba, 115wRC+
8) K.Johnson (30): 3209pa, .785ops, .344woba, 108wRC+
9) B.Roberts (34): 5535pa, .769ops, .343woba, 108wRC+
10) N.Walker (26): 1182pa, .756ops, .329woba, 105wRC+


Last 2 years stats:

1) R.Cano (29): 1396pa, .895ops, .381woba, 136wRC+
2) D.Pedroia (28): 1101pa, .862ops, .378woba, 134wRC+
3) R.Weeks (29): 1287pa, .826ops, .364woba, 128wRC+
4) I.Kinsler (30): 1201pa, .826ops, .368woba, 126wRC+
5) C.Utley (33): 965pa, .802ops, .360woba, 124wRC+
6) D.Uggla (32): 1362pa, .815ops, .354woba, 121wRC+
7) B.Zobrist (31): 1342pa, .764ops, .342woba, 117wRC+
8) K.Johnson (30): 1307pa, .799ops, .350woba, 113wRC+
9) B.Phillips (31): 1378pa, .783ops, .340woba, 110wRC+
10) H.Kendrick (28): 1258pa, .759ops, .332woba, 108wRC+


Now there's a number of younger guys with very limited at bats so far that are challenging these guys (J.Kipnis, D.Murphy, D.Ackley, J.Weeks), but there's a solid argument to be made that Johnson is a top-10 2B in MLB.

acepinball - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#254228) #
Very tough 9th inning for JPA. Before that inning his defense was actually quite inspiring. He is setting up earlier and giving a better target for pitchers than last season. Before he would show the back of the glove to the pitcher and then turn it to catch the pitch. This season he is framing it nicer before the delivery. Also, his arm strength is very good, and he should be able to effectively control the running game.

But then a passed ball gave Pedroia 3rd base with none out. Then a tough bounce on the throw from J-Bats bounces out of his glove before they can nail McDonald at the plate. Two plays that could have changed the outcome of the game.

All that said, give him time. He looks like a player to me. If he's given a few years to develop he could be a premier catcher in the big leagues. d'Arnaud gives the Jays two chances of finding a star battery mate and he'll probably need time to develop too.
smcs - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#254229) #
But then a passed ball gave Pedroia 3rd base with none out. Then a tough bounce on the throw from J-Bats bounces out of his glove before they can nail McDonald at the plate. Two plays that could have changed the outcome of the game.

That was an absolutely terrible throw from Bautista. There is no way that he should have thrown a 2-bouncer from short right field. If that ball sticks in Arencibia's glove, McDonald was out. A good throw would have had him out by a mile.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#254230) #
Concur.  I will say that the walk to Ross was what bothered me most about the inning.  Pitching carefully to Ortiz is one thing, but Santos ought to come right after Ross.  
smcs - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#254231) #
Jim Bowden (via twitter) confirms Brandon Phillips has signed a 6 year, $72.5MM contract extension.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#254234) #
Yeah, I've seen Bautista make better throws than that, from much deeper in right, many times. That shouldn't have even been a close play at the plate.
perlhack - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#254247) #
Aside: on Monday's episode of Jeopardy, the Double Jeopardy! round had the question "In 2010 Roy Halladay of this team threw 2 no-hitters -- one in the regular season & one in the postseason". The first player answered with "Detroit Tigers"; the other two players did not buzz in to answer. The only other answer not correctly questioned that round was the last clue in "Around the Literary World".
perlhack - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#254253) #
Another aside: there's an article in Grantland, "The Lost Founder of Baseball Video Games", about the first computer-based baseball simulation created by John Burgeson.
TamRa - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#254259) #
First SP to pick up a win this year - Kyle Drabek. Who had that in the pool?
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 10 2012 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#254261) #
Nice job by Drabek, decent offensive production, ugly showing by Janssen and only their 4th HR of the year.   Jose Bautista's timing is off, and joining him in misery is still Thames, Escobar, Rasmus and Arencibia.   Meanwhile, Johnson and Encarnacion try to carry the team and thus far Romero's tied with the Rookie as their worst starter.   When they win, they win comfortably; when they lose, they lose a tight game.   And surprisingly enough, they need to win tomorrow, because they haven't lost a series yet, if ever.
Ryan C - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#254265) #
When they win, they win comfortably; when they lose, they lose a tight game.

They won the first two games of the season in extra innings.  How are those not tight games?
hypobole - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 02:33 AM EDT (#254269) #
When they win, they win comfortably

It's due to the plush, air-cushioned insoles in their footwear.
Dave Till - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#254274) #
Santos had a bad outing in the home opener, but I think a large part of that was because he faced Pedroia as his first batter. His first pitch was a high fastball at something like 97 miles an hour; the vast majority of AL hitters would have let it go by or flailed at it and missed. Pedroia was able to turn on it and whack it into the left field corner, which was a very impressive feat. After that, the blown save was pretty much inevitable. Santos's attempt to do too much to try to impress a sold-out home crowd and a new team was also pretty much inevitable too.

I think that many fans expect too much from bullpens and closers. Whenever I read something like, "The starter left the game with a 3-2 lead in the sixth (or a 4-3 lead, or even a 5-4 lead) and the bullpen couldn't hold it", I think: if a starter is allowed to give up 3 runs in 6 innings and be considered to have done a good job, why are relief pitchers expected to have an ERA of 0.00?

Any prospective Jays closer is always compared with the duo of Henke and Ward. But even these two mythical paragons of a bygone age were human and had their ups and downs. At the start of the 1990 season, Ward was exactly what Santos is now - a pitcher with great stuff who could not be relied upon to be consistent. It took him about three years to find himself. Henke struggled at the start of the 1986 season, and actually lost his job in 1989 - Jimy Williams lost confidence in him. In 1992, he was still doing the job, but he was no longer as dominant; I seem to recall that he was relying on his split-finger pitch to get batters out, as he could no longer blow the fastball by them.

It's worth remembering that Santos is still a work in progress. He's only been pitching for three years. If he was a lights-out closer, the White Sox would not have traded him. He's a pitcher with amazing raw stuff who is under team control for several years; like many of the Jays, he hasn't yet become what he might be.

I wonder whether the Jays' publicity machine hasn't been a bit too good at its job. New uniforms! New attitude! We're gonna kick butt! It's 1992 all over again! Go Jays! Tickets on sale now! Will fans be disappointed by the reality - a good team, but a work in progress, and a team that is not likely yet ready to beat up on the other beasts of the East? I know that I got caught up in the hype a bit too much - I had to follow yesterday's game from a discreet distance, as I wasn't sure I could handle the disappointment if Drabek had gotten stomped and the Jays had lost something like 11-1.

Other comments:
- I am perfectly happy with Colby Rasmus. He's hitting balls hard; it's not his fault that they've been right at people. He's made two really nice catches in center; Corey Patterson (to pick an example at random) would not have come within the same area code of either of them. Patience is required.
- I don't know what Kelly Johnson's future will be in Toronto, but it's worth noting this: he chose to be here. He could easily have declined arbitration and signed a contract with any of a number of teams. But, instead, he decided to stay here. This might just be because he is hoping to have a big year and win a larger contract. But, to do that, he's going to have to have a great season in a Toronto uniform. I can totally live with that.
- Joey Bats has always been a streaky hitter, and we will have to live with that too. The skills are all still there - I recall watching a spring training game on TV in which a Phillies pitcher decided to throw Jose a first-pitch, get-it-over fastball for a strike. I have no idea how far that ball went - the backdrop made it impossible to tell - but the left fielder didn't even move. He won't ever hit .300 again, but he'll be just fine.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#254280) #
One time through the rotation and the club ought to be very happy with the results.  They have split the close games (as you will usually do) and won the only laugher.  One of the smaller issues with the Pythagorean W-L method is that it treats a 7-4 win in the 16th inning (like opening day) as the same as a 7-4 win in nine innings (where the opponent has scored two in the ninth to make it look closer than it was, i.e. something like yesterday's game).

On the other hand, McGuire and Hutchison aren't exactly dominating so far in double A, and McGowan won't be back any time soon.  It sure would be nice to have another starter.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#254281) #
"First SP to pick up a win this year - Kyle Drabek. Who had that in the pool?"

Who had a pool betting on which SP would be the first to tally a win?

Nice to see the new-and-improved Drabek. I thought he was solid (dominating at times), but he still seemed to be walking the knife-edge to some extent. Keep in mind that his BB/9 IP for 2012 is now 5.1. Still work to be done.

Lots of interesting info about Kyle and others from AA during his on-air interview - Drabek's increased use of the two-seamer, the emphasis on "two-seamer, curveball, change," Rasmus's swing looking "much better" than it did last year, etc.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#254283) #
Did Kelly choose to be here, or did a lack of offers dictate his course of action? Either way we're all glad he's here, and the addition of Johnson & Rasmus to this lineup is going to make a huge difference over the course of the season.

I really wish Thames would be the one to sit vs. lefties for Rajai, not Rasmus. Would upgrade both hitting & fielding.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#254285) #
Presumably, they'll do a little of both.  Rasmus could use a day off every two weeks or so.  You might even start Davis in center and Francisco in left against a lefty with extreme platoon splits.
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#254286) #

Rasmus ripped his triple off a lefty, too. 

I agree, Ramus should be getting every day AB's.  In his breakout 2010, he had an .810 OPS against lefties with a .351 BAbip (his BAbip against RHP that year was .355). I wonder if that BAbip was a bit high, and if Colby might be closer to a .250/.350/.460 guy then a .275/.370/.500 guy.

I'd take either.

Gerry - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#254293) #
Rasmus gets his day off today.  So does Lind.  Davis to CF, EE to 1B, Francisco to DH.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#254294) #
I'm actually more concerned with the defensive downgrade than the offensive one. I've seen nothing from Eric Thames thus far that suggests he's any better than the butcher we saw last year, despite the feel good spring stories that were written and the fans around here that want to believe everything they read.
Thomas - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#254306) #
I'm not sure why Francisco is at DH and Thames in LF. I understand that the team may want to build Thames's confidence and express some faith in him, but I think that applies more to replacing him defensively in every game in the 7th, as opposed to the initial lineup.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#254307) #
Perhaps Francisco isn't 100% recovered from his hamstring injury?
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#254310) #
I know it's a small sample size, but Francisco is 1 for 9 (a single) against Lester in his career. Possibly not the guy you want hitting fifth in the order.

Davis is 2 for 14 with 6 Ks against Lester, so the only advantage to playing him over Rasmus would seem to be that the latter has never faced the lefty.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#254311) #
I really wish Thames would be the one to sit vs. lefties for Rajai, not Rasmus. Would upgrade both hitting & fielding.

To be fair, the first time we faced a lefty starter (Doubront), Thames was the lefty hitter that sat out, while Lind and Rasmus started. Fair is far, and it's not like there's much to choose from here - career v. LHP: Rasmus .666ops, Thames .645, Lind .613
China fan - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#254313) #
".....the fans around here that want to believe everything they read...."

And then there are the fans who use a 5-game sample size as evidence to ridicule the considered assessment of Anthopoulos, Farrell and their coaches about who should be in the Jays outfield.

Of course we'd never use a 5-game sample size to assess the hitting ability of Rasmus or Arencibia. Because that would be absurd. But apparently it's okay to use the evidence of 5 games if it fits with a pre-conceived prejudice.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#254315) #
Lester over his career has fared pretty much equally well against lefties and righties.  Personally I would have kept Rasmus in the lineup this afternoon.  He does hang in well against lefthanders, and has been playing with a lot of energy over the first 5 games.  It is a judgment call.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#254316) #
Gotta love the Jays getting 2 after giving up 1. Just a fun team so far this year regardless of where this game ends up.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#254317) #
Pretty crap umpiring at 1B today - ump blew the call on the hustling Lawrie (calling him out on a play that wasn't all that close) and ruling that Pedroia checked his swing earlier the game (looked like strike three - fortunately Romero K'ed him anyway).

Heckuva game by Davis so far. Guy is a game-changer when he gets on base, and that triple was exciting as all get out.
blu-j - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#254322) #
I know this isn't a substantive comment or one that will really add to the discussion, but I felt compelled to share it somewhere (given my isolated Jays fan experience here in New Jersey):

Atta boy Sergio!!!  (and Ricky and Rajai too, of course!)

I'll definitely take two series wins when the offense clearing isn't clicking yet.

TamRa - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#254323) #
Big redemption for Santos today.

2nd/3rd 1 out, 2 run lead, Youk and Ortiz at least to face -

K's Youk and Ortiz grounds to short.

Done and done.

(Ricky Ro pitched his heiny off and out-dueled Lester - no mean feat - too, great day for the team)
China fan - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#254325) #
Heading into this season, we knew that the Jays would go as far as their pitching carries them. And the lesson after 6 games is that the pitching is better than we expected. The bullpen is very strong. Romero and Morrow are an excellent one-two punch at the top of the rotation. And Alvarez and Drabek are looking good. The fifth spot in the rotation is a question mark, of course, but that's true for a lot of good teams. There are enough young pitchers nearly ready for the majors that the fifth spot should be in good hands by mid-season at latest.

As for the lineup: it's struggling a bit, but there are no obvious sinkholes. It's a balanced lineup, and it should improve. The balance means that there's always a chance of a clutch hit, if the pitchers keep them in the game.

This could be a very interesting season.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#254327) #
Thoroughly enjoyable series. The team is looking great at the moment. Gonna be a fun year to be a Jays fan I think.
bpoz - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#254330) #
Next game Friday night, so there is time to talk.

To be honest I thought Kenny Williams knew that M Sirotka was injured when he traded him to the Jays. If true, then that man is not above doing something like that again IMO.
So I was worried about Santos, then ST was weird in that he was preparing with the minor league teams. But it seems he is OK, he struk out Youk on sliders and 1 97mph FB that was a ball.

IMO, going once through the rotation, I have Romero as having the worst start, that being in Cleveland. While debatable, I also have Romero as having the best start, that being today against Lester & the BoSox. Carreno's start was OK, but I will not argue with anyone saying that it was good . After all it was his 1st ML start, he went 6 innings and threw 97 pitches, those are positives to me.

So the rotation to me has been fabulous so far.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#254333) #
The Red Sox head home, but face the Rays, Rangers and Yankees during the nine-game homestand. Ouch.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#254336) #
Boston's next nine games could leave them 1 - 14, while a sweep of Balitimore could let Toronto face Tampa Bay at 7 - 2.
bpoz - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#254340) #
Detroit lost to TB today. E Longoria hit a 2 or 3 bounce GB that got past the IF. I think it was a lucky hit. Verlander is incredible, I saw 2 99mph FBs in the 9th.

It is free preview week for baseball.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#254342) #
I ripped on Farrell long and hard last year, but if he keeps managing like this (aka like Maddon), I will be his biggest fan going forward.

I absolutely love that we're using the platoons to our advantage, and recognizing that Davis and Francisco are just better hitters vs. lefties than most of our lefty hitters. No screwing around and worrying about players being "our starters" and worrying about their confidence or anything like that - just plain playing the odds. You keep doing that, and it'll keep working.

And it extends to his bullpen management this year so far as well - pulling Drabek and Romero when he did the last 2 starts was a borderline call in both circumstances, and Farrell made bold moves that worked out perfectly. of course, it helps when you have the quality relievers to make you look good.

And nice to see Ricky bounce back with a beauty start today - it would have been pretty disheartening to give up a typical series loss to the red sox, just when they're starting to scuffle pretty bad, and in our home opener to boot.....and with ricky's history against them, and lester's history against us, it could easily have been more of the same same to start this year....but thanks to Ricky, it's not.

now if only our bats would start working.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#254344) #
I've been surprised by the range Bautista has shown to start the season, it's been better than I remembered; fresh legs, perhaps. His arm is certainly not in midseason form, however.

Got my first live look at Thames defensively today. I believe he had 4 plays today, and managed to look awkward to poor on all 4. I hope that Farrell only put Thames in LF over Francisco because Ben isn't fully recovered and not because he's trying to give Thames defensive reps. The 9th inning defensive switch was timely (gave Thames his 3rd AB) and well executed.

The left side of the infield defense is a real plus; Lawrie/Escobar are probably one of the best defensive (all-around?) tandems in the league.

And speaking of Lawrie, he's the 3rd youngest player in the AL behind Alvarez and a reliever on SEA. Gose & Hutchison are in the Top 10 of their leagues as well, which you can read at http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/04/the-youngest-players-in-each-full-season-league/

Does anyone else find that when you try linking something with Google Chrome here that it takes away all your paragraph breaks?
Thomas - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#254345) #
Bryce Harper would be the youngest or second-youngest player in every league through the Florida State League. That is all.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#254348) #
I stay with the normal Google, not chrome, not bing, not firefox or any of the other stuff - because I don't need it.   If you do, be advised, there are drawbacks to everything.
Parker - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#254349) #
Going by emotional age, Bryce Harper is younger than most of my girlfriend's Grade 4 class.

Also, if the Jays can score seven runs against Lester without their bats working, this is going to be one heck of a team once they do wake up...
Parker - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#254350) #
Oops. Only six games in and I'm already getting mixed up; they only scored three against Lester.

I stand by my Bryce Harper comment, though.
Beyonder - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#254351) #
Does anyone else find it creepy that Parker's girlfriend is in grade four?
Parker - Wednesday, April 11 2012 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#254352) #
How do you know I'm not in Grade 4 myself?

That sentence was badly phrased, fine. She TEACHES Grade 4.
DJRob - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 04:46 AM EDT (#254355) #
Lt Frank Drebbin: "I haven't had this much sex since I was a Scout Leader."
Thank you Parker. I've spent the first 20 minutes of my work day reading Leslie Nielson movie quotes.
bpoz - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#254360) #
SSS but the Jays Rotation looks to be matching TB's. I cannot tell who is better because I don't want to make the effort using a calculator. I wish I could remember my spreadsheet skills.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#254363) #
I am still puzzling about the phrase "the normal Google".  I think that it refers using Internet Explorer as a web browser, with Google as a search engine.  Microsoft as the missionaries of the tech world?

It has been an odd but pleasing start to the season.  The pitching has been very good, and the hitting has been poor, except when runners have been on base.  Nonetheless, the lineup has no obvious sinkholes.  Arencibia and Rasmus will likely hit better than they have been, and in a semi-platoon role, Lind might be just fine. 

uglyone - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#254365) #
IMO it's really all about 3 players right now - Morrow, Alvarez, and Drabek. (M.A.D.)

They all have the talent to be top-notch SP, even in this division, but are all huge question marks. Encouraging first time through the rotation at least....and if they can keep it up anywhere near this kind of level, the outlook of this team changes dramatically, IMO. There's a lot of talent in our admittedly questionable rotation.
92-93 - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#254368) #
I'm glad to see I wasn't the only one who had no clue what Richard was talking about, as usual. No one else has problems with links in Google Chrome?

The strength of the Rays pitching is in their depth. Give it a full season to play out. They have Alex Torres, Alex Cobb, and Chris Archer all in the AAA rotation with Alex Colome in AA.
uglyone - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#254369) #
no problems with Chrome here for me.

Cobb, Torres, Archer, Colome v. Carreno, Hutchison, McGuire, Jenkins.....GO
Gerry - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#254374) #

In chrome I have to manually input the links using HTML.  In explorer there is a link button I can use.  I had noticed that sometimes I get paragraph breaks and sometimes not in chrome, didn't realize it was related to links.

If I don't get the paragraphs I want I just use the p and /p HTML commands.

Original Ryan - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#254375) #
I'm glad to see I wasn't the only one who had no clue what Richard was talking about, as usual. No one else has problems with links in Google Chrome?

I use Google Chrome and I also lose the paragraph breaks whenever I insert HTML tags. For example, I had to insert a paragraph tag above because I put the quotation from your post in italics.

uglyone - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#254376) #
oh, that's a chrome thing only?

yeah, I get that too - I have to use br/br whenever I use any other tags in order to get paragraph breaks.
uglyone - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#254378) #
and just because I have no interest in doing any real work today....


MLB

A.Hutchison (----): ---
J.Carreno (24-25): 21.2ip, 7.1k/9, 3.3bb/9, 53.3gb%, 2.49era, 4.30fip, 3.63xfip
D.McGuire (------): ---
C.Jenkins (-------): ---

A.Cobb (23-24): 52.2ip, 6.3k/9, 3.6bb/9, 54.0gb%, 3.42era, 3.61fip, 3.90xfip
A.Torres (23-23): 8.0ip, 10.1k/9, 7.9bb/9, 59.1gb%, 3.38era, 3.78fip, 4.40xfip
C.Archer (-------): ---
A.Colome (------): ---

MiLB

A.Hutchison (19-21): 229.0ip, 9.4k/9, 2.2bb/9, 1.04whip, 2.48era
J.Carreno (19-24): 587.0ip, 9.7k/9, 2.9bb/9, 1.19whip, 3.11era
D.McGuire (22-23): 130.1ip, 9.0k/9, 3.2bb/9, 1.28whip, 3.45era
C.Jenkins (22-24): 315.1ip, 6.5k/9, 2.1bb/9, 1.27whip, 3.77era

A.Cobb (18-24): 553.1ip, 7.8k/9, 2.5bb/9, 1.19whip, 2.98era
A.Torres (18-24): 586.2ip, 9.4k/9, 5.0bb/9, 1.42whip, 3.22era
C.Archer (17-23): 597.2ip, 8.8k/9, 5.2bb/9, 1.42whip, 3.75era
A.Colome (18-23): 445.1ip, 9.2k/9, 4.2bb/9, 1.27whip, 3.74era
greenfrog - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#254379) #
Minor-league stats are important but tell only part of the story. I remember when Price and Cecil were on their way up one Bauxite cited their stats in the minors as evidence that Cecil was close to as good a prospect as Price - and we know how that turned out. Sometimes there is more to the story (which may be why, for example, AA was willing to trade Nestor Molina).

This is just a general observation, not an argument that the Rays' minor-leaguers are better or worse than the Jays' group.
uglyone - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#254380) #
Some additional info, then:

D.McGuire (23): #10 '10 Drft, BA '12 ---, Sickels '12 B+
C.Jenkins (24): #20 '09 Drft, BA '12 ---, Sickels '12 C+/B-
A.Hutchison (21): #460 '09 Drft, BA '12 ---, Sickels '12 B+
J.Carreno (25): IFA '04t, BA '12 ---, Sickels '12 C+/B-

A.Cobb (24): #109 '06 Drft, BA '12 ---, Sickels '12 GR ('11 B-)
C.Archer (23): #161 '06 Drft, BA '12 #89, Sickels '12 B-
A.Torres (24): IFA '05, BA '12 ---, Sickels '12 B/B+
A.Colome (23): IFA '07, BA '12 ---, Sickels '12 B
rfan8 - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#254381) #
Davis and McGee are pitching out of their pen too. Both were starters in the minors and may be considered before those guys.
uglyone - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#254383) #
B.Cecil (25): #38 '07 Drft, BA '09 #72, Sickels '09 B+
L.Perez (26): IFA '03 ----, BA ---, Sickels '09 C+
J.Litsch (27): #717 '04 Drft, BA ---, Sickels '07 C+

W.Davis (26): #75 '04 Drft, BA '10 #34, Sickels '10 A-
J.McGee (25): #135 '04 Drft, BA '11 #71, Sickels '11 B+


MLB

B.Cecil (22-24): 389.2ip, 6.4k/9, 3.1bb/9, 42.0gb%, 4.64era, 4.69fip, 4.36xfip
L.Perez (25-26): 70.2ip, 7.4k/9, 3.8bb/9, 59.2gb%, 4.71era, 4.51fip, 3.86xfip
J.Litsch (22-26): 417.2ip, 5.2k/9, 2.6bb/9, 46.9gb%, 4.16era, 4.71fip, 4.42xfip

W.Davis (23-26): 389.1ip, 5.9k/9, 3.2bb/9, 37.7gb%, 4.21era, 4.56fip, 4.61xfip
J.McGee (23-25): 34.1ip, 8.9k/9, 4.5bb/9, 35.7gb%. 4.46era, 4.42fip, 4.18xfip


MiLB

B.Cecil (20-25): 313.2ip, 8.6k/9, 2.8bb/9, 1.27whip, 3.70era
L.Perez (21-26): 665.0ip, 7.8k/9, 3.9bb/9, 1.35whip, 3.82era
J.Litsch (20-26): 407.0ip, 7.6k/9, 1.7bb/9, 1.21whip, 3.91era

W.Davis (18-23): 767.1ip, 8.7k/9, 3.3bb/9, 1.26whip, 3.28era
J.McGee (17-24): 654.0ip, 10.4k/9, 3.6bb/9, 1.22whip, 3.41era
China fan - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#254387) #
Those are a lot of numbers, uglyone, but I'm not really sure of what point you are trying to make. Could you add some text to give us your conclusions?

On the face of it, I don't see much similarity between the three pitchers that you're highlighting. Cecil began his career very well, but has been struggling for more than a year, and seems unlikely to rebound in the near future. Litsch also began his career very well, but injuries have made it difficult to assess his future. Perez is a whole other category -- he's been slow to reach the majors, and his rookie season was up-and-down, but now he seems to have a promising future.

Was there some other conclusion that we're supposed to reach from all those numbers?
uglyone - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#254393) #
Sorry, I thought the similarities were there, but maybe adding Litsch confused things.

Cecil and Davis were both very highly regarded prospects with impressive track records (note: those BA and Sickels rankings for Davis came when he was 2 years older than those BA and Sickels rankings for Cecil took place), and both have gone on to similarly mediocre starting careers, and both now find themselves out of a starting job. I threw Litsch in there as a guy who may not have been as highly regarded a prospect, but who had a similarly impressive milb career and a similarly mediocre mlb career as these guys.

Now Perez wasn't as highly regarded a prospect as McGee, but has had a similarly impressive minor league career (Perez more of a GB machine and McGee more of a K machine), a similarly delayed start to this MLB career (Perez debuted at 25, McGee and 24), and both are trying to currently establish themselves as reliable bullpen arms at a similar age - though Perez so far has been the more successful, with McGee unable to perform effectively at the MLB level as of yet.
China fan - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#254394) #
Thanks for the explanation. Interesting points. I'm very optimistic about Perez. He showed flashes of brilliance last year, but was over-extended when he was thrown into the rotation. This year (small sample size alert) he seems to be further improved, and could make another run at the rotation at some point. His 4.1 shutout innings on opening day were highly impressive.
TamRa - Thursday, April 12 2012 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#254402) #
"IMO it's really all about 3 players right now - Morrow, Alvarez, and Drabek. (M.A.D.)"

If the Jays had signed Uehara, they could have fielded the troll rotation: R.U.M.A.D.

:)
hypobole - Friday, April 13 2012 @ 02:46 AM EDT (#254408) #
I found this of interest in today's KLaw cat:

Milt (Atltanta)

You recently mentioned a lack of life on Teheran's fastball. Can you explain? Also, is this relative to where he had been previously, or more general? I know we're dealing in small samples this year, but something seems off with him. Thanks!
Klaw (3:28 PM)

It's straight and up. A fastball can move a lot of ways - it can tail (like a two-seamer, moves to the arm side), cut, run (to the glove side, not sharp like a cutter - you might also hear that called "bore"), sink, or have "late life up in the zone" (think Matt Cain, a ball that never sinks but appears to speed up as it crosses the plate, which I assume is an illusion because it's not decelerating as expected). Teheran's fastball doesn't cut, run, bore, or sink, and it doesn't have life up. It's real hard and real true. I'd love to see him try a two-seamer - could be 92-93 with tail, and then you've really got something.
Klaw (3:28 PM)

Drabek's switch to two-seamers and cutters over the last year is a reaction to the lack of life on his fastball.
92-93 - Friday, April 13 2012 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#254423) #
The Jays have actually told Drabek to get away from the cutter.
Gerry - Friday, April 13 2012 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#254425) #
Evan Crawford gets the call to fill in for Sergio Santos while he is away for the birth of his third child.  Santos was due back tomorrow, I hope this call doesn't mean there were complications with the delivery.
China fan - Friday, April 13 2012 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#254427) #
I didn't realize that MLB had introduced a "paternity leave" policy, but apparently it allows any team to place a player on the "paternity list" for a minimum of 1 game and a maximum of 3 games. That's where Santos has been placed. So that would indicate that he'll miss only 3 games, which does not indicate any bad news about the birth of his child. But a nice opportunity for Crawford, and it suggests that he is very, very close to making the team at the next opportunity.
Mike Green - Friday, April 13 2012 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#254429) #
According to fangraphs, Drabek's most effective pitch in his first start was the change. 
scottt - Friday, April 13 2012 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#254445) #
Looks like Ellsbury is back on the DL after injuring is shoulder trying to break a double play.



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