Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Over the winter the Jays were looking for another starting pitcher to add to their rotation. Now we know why.

Brett Cecil has been optioned to AA after his bad start yesterday.

Kyle Drabek will be the #5 starter.

Aaron Laffey has been sent down to Las Vegas.

Joel Carreno has been recalled from AA and will start game 3 for the Jays.

I don't think this will do wonders for the Jays confidence heading into the season, but Carreno could pitch well in his first start. Drabek will be challenged with the Red Sox in his first start. It ups the ante on Romero and Morrow to win the first two games and reduce the pressure on the other starters.

After next week the Jays do not need a fifth starter until April 21st. Carreno can move to the bullpen after his start and the Jays will have a couple of weeks to pick the hottest pitcher, Carreno or someone else, to start that game.

Posted by Gerry on Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 10:26 AM EDT.

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John Northey - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#253770) #

Well, that certainly shakes things up a bit.

Cecil has not had a 100 ERA+ in the majors in his 3 seasons. His K/9 was sub-7 all 3 seasons as well while his BB/9 was between 2.8 and 3.7. Not figures that are impressive but he was viewed as a stud coming up with a K/9 above 9 at all levels pre-reaching the majors in 2009. Something changed and while he did get 15 wins one year he certain hasn't shown more than back end of the rotation talent since. I was hopeful that he'd show that promise again but it looks like his recent spring troubles are just too big.

I'm glad Joel Carreño is getting the shot rather than a retread though. He is in his age 25 season, 9.7 K/9 overall in the minors, 2.9 BB/9. Pre-2011 he never had a BB/9 worse than 3.2 then had a 4.5 last year in AA. Should be interesting to see if he or Drabek can grab the bull by the horns and force the Jays to keep them in the rotation.

electric carrot - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#253771) #

The Darvish lament hits its refrain. It's looking like about a 6 or so game swing between what Darvish might do vs. what we might get from whomever occupies the #5 slot in the rotation. Sigh.

Anders - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#253773) #

I am in favour of this move;I don't think that Cecil was going to approach anything near major league calibre. He was awful in spring training (14 runs in 16.2 innings in spring training, with a 10/9 K/BB) not that that's super important, but given how poorly his 2011 went, it wasn't encouraging.

I am not sure the Jays really have a guy you'd be comfortable running out as a fifth starter at this point. I like Carreno and while I'm not sure if he profiles as a starter long term, he was pretty successful in the role in the minors, and he strikes guys out. Could be worse.

China fan - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#253774) #

With Drabek and Carreno both in the rotation, I wonder if the Jays will decide that an 8th reliever is more valuable than a 5th outfielder. They went with 8 relievers for much of last season, and it might make sense for the first few weeks of this season (unless the younger starters show an unexpected ability to go 6 or 7 innings consistently, which I'm pretty skeptical of).

With the demotion of Mike McCoy, there don't seem to be any bench players on the team who have remaining options. So it's hard to bounce around a utility guy to make room for an 8th reliever when they need one. But maybe the Jays will decide that Francisco is still recovering from his injury? A couple weeks on the DL would make room for an 8th reliever, and Francisco won't be missed very much.

I just think the Jays have to be prepared for a scenario where Carreno goes 5 innings, Alvarez goes 6 innings, and then Drabek goes for 5 innings. That could tire out a bullpen pretty fast.

On the other hand, there are a few off-days in the schedule in April, so that could help to preserve the bullpen if the Jays decide that they really need 5 outfielders.

AWeb - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#253775) #

Well, this screws up my guesses at starting pitchers this year...did anyone pick Cecil for 0 starts? Is there any talk of a complete overhaul, Halladay style, or is his arm just losing it?

I'm fine with Drabek against the Red Sox - why not test him early. I see a lot of middle relief innings either way though (high, early, pitch count issues are likely)...who's the 2-inning guy this year?

China fan - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#253777) #

Villanueva and Perez are the two-inning guys. Both of them have had that role consistently through spring training. The problem is, the Jays might need some three-inning and four-inning guys....

85bluejay - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#253778) #

I like this decision - the worst thing the jays can do is trying to acquire some backend guy by giving up young talent or rushing Jenkins/Hutch/McGuire - I think after the Cleveland start, Carreno will be in the pen until April 21st - of course, if he's lights out & drabek bombs that may change.

85bluejay - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#253779) #

I was kinda disappointed that the Jays did not make play for Colon/Garcia on a 1 yr deal - even if they were good for only 1/2 season, it would have bought time for the young pitchers

China fan - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#253780) #

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#253781) #

I'm also in favour of this move. It wasn't just that Cecil looked pretty bad in ST; he was trending in the wrong direction. I'm glad the front office stopped the impending debacle before it began.

The team should have some more SP options in a few months, but depending on injuries, performance issues, and IP limits, there could be quite a bit of mixing and matching in the rotation this year.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#253783) #

It appears that Carreno has pitched six innings in a minor league start. Could the early sending out of Carreno been part of the backup plan? Rather than get him limited innings in major league camp, send him to minor league camp where he could get stretched out and ready to sub-in if needed?

We probably will never know for sure but it sounds like a great backup plan if it were true.

China fan - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#253784) #

Okay, after a closer look at the schedule: Alvarez could pitch on the 14th against Baltimore on four days rest. Then the starter on the 15th could be Carreno or Drabek, depending on which one did better in their first start.

Thomas - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#253785) #

Gerry, I'd like to think that was the case. AA couldn't have been blind to the weaknesses at the back of the rotation. Also, as you note, Carreno was sent out earlier than you'd have expected given his performance last year in both the minors and majors and the fact he was more than just a September call-up.

I'm inclined to believe that AA sent out earlier to stretch him out more thoroughly as a Plan D in case two of McGowan/Cecil/Drabek got hurt or underperformed, Laffey didn't do well and they deemed Hutch not ready. I'm not sure it was the primary motivation, but I think it was a consideration. Plus, the team had an extended look at Carreno last year when he came up, so that move allowed Farrell and Walton and the front office more time to see and work with Hutchison in person.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#253786) #

Ben Francisco has options.

Anders - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#253787) #

Carreno can't go immediately into the bullpen after the Cleveland start because the Jays need someone to pitch on April 14 against Baltimore. And it can't be Drabek because he pitches on the 10th against Boston. So it has to be Carreno again. He gets two starts, Drabek gets one start, and then the Jays can flip them around on April 21 if they want. Drabek might be the one who goes into the bullpen after April 10.

I would assume Alvarez becomes the #3 starter after the first start (I think they wanted to give him the Opening Day start rather than Cecil/Drabek; he's clearly their third best pitcher). So, Alvarez on the 14th (on normal rest), then on the 15th Carreno will be on 6 days rest and Drabek 4, so either can pitch. Or if they want to they can not skip Carreno and have him pitch on 5 days rest followed by Alvarez on 5 days rest. Basically they can skip either of them.

April 5 , 7, 8 @ CLE: Romero, Morrow, Carreno
April 9-11 v BOS: Alvarez, Drabek, Romero
Off Day
April 13-15 v BAL: Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek/Carreno,
Off Day
April 17-19 v TB: Romero, Morrow, Alvarez
April 20-23 @ KC: Drabek/Carreno, Drabek/Carreno, Romero, Morrow

John Northey - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#253788) #

An option on the 15th also is to 'tandem start' Carreno & Drabek. Carreno has the most rest, so he starts and goes 5 innings followed in the 6th by Drabek going for the last 4 innings (ideally). Both are in line then for the KC series with one of them getting an extra days rest.

sam - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#253789) #

God help us if one of Romero, Morrow, or Alavrez stutter/get hurt.

joeblow - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#253791) #

I'm very relieved that Cecil is out of the picture for now. I would rather see Drabek get a good look and not have to worry about McGowan pushing him back to AAA. We pretty much expected the 4/5 positions to be a revolving talent show for some of this season. It just happens to be that way right off the bat.

Matthew E - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#253793) #

I wonder how plausible it is that Cecil could make a comeback as a reliever.

ColiverPhD - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#253794) #

I had the good fortune to see Carreno make his MLB debut in Toronto last season and was impressed...lively arm, pretty good command, and, most of all, a mature mound presence. It is unfortunate that the circumstances are what they are, but the good part of it is that Carreno has the opportunity to begin the season as a starter.

As for Drabek, it is "put up" time. He has to look at this opportunity not as a "project", but as a starting pitcher who can produce now! Surely there will be bumps in the road, but the ballclub does not need any bumps of the self-inflicted nature.

Hopefully, Drabek will show the mature presence that Carreno exhibited last season.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#253795) #

Cecil has the splits you want to see, and was a dominant college closer with an MLB-ready slider at the time he was drafted.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#253796) #

I was thinking Cecil could end up in the pen if he struggled in the rotation, but there's not much room in the bullpen - it'd take an injury or trade to open up a spot.

It seems a reasonable idea, since Cecil was considered by some to be a MLB-ready reliever on the day he was drafted. (He's held lefties to 235/289/375 over his career - 186/282/240 last year.)

Ron - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#253797) #

Why did the Jays send Cecil to AA considering he has similar stuff to Cole Hamels and the only difference between these 2 pitchers is the ability to command their stuff?

Rich - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#253798) #

Why did the Jays send Cecil to AA considering he has similar stuff to Cole Hamels and the only difference between these 2 pitchers is the ability to command their stuff?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2660&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&position=P

Not sure they are that similar. Besides having better command, Hamels throws harder, has a cutter and one of the best changeups in the game. Cecil's velocity continues to drop and he uses a slider often. His changeup is nowhere near Hamels' calibre. Hamels also gets 50% more swinging strikes than Cecil and has a lower home rate against despite playing in a bandbox. Basically Hamels is better in virtually every respect. Sending a player to AA is a career intervention for a guy who has gone backwards at a staggering pace.

baagcur - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#253800) #

@Rich

I guess you do not follow Wilner on Twitter. Probably a smart move

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#253801) #

I think A.A. still wants Joel Carreno to start in AA and develop his skills to possibly be a Starter in a future Rotation or a Long-Man/Spot Starter in a future Bullpen. Carreno will start against Cleveland on April 8th (Televised Day Game), not a difficult task. He will go into the bullpen as a 3-4 + inning Long-Man until the 21st and then a decision gets made. Will Dustin McGowan be ready for the 21st, or 26th, or 1st? By the 21st, both Kyle Drabek and Henderson Alvarez will have made three starts, and it can be determined if they stay longer.

Romero (5th), Morrow (7th) and Carreno (8th) start in Cleveland. Alvarez (9th), Drabek (10th) and Romero (11th) start verses Boston. Morrow (13th), Alvarez (14th) and Drabek (15th) start verses Balitimore. Romero (17th), Morrow (18th) and Alvarez start verses Tampa Bay. Drabek (20th), Carreno ??? (21st), Romero (22nd) and Morrow (23rd) start in Kansas City. With the exception of the 5th Starter, A.A. or Farrell has said "no Starter will have more than 5 days off".

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#253802) #

I think this recent Farrell quote about Drabek says a lot about Cecil's chances of sticking in the rotation in future:

“Kyle has thrown the ball very well in spring training and with each outing continues to get more consistent,” Farrell said. “In our division we feel power is needed and he’s got the ability to attack left-handers and right-handers with equal ability.”

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#253803) #

The club has evidently decided that Carreno will be better than Cecil, for awhile. I am not sure that this is true, but it is definitely the case that Cecil was getting truly roughed up by RH hitters and he may do much better as a reliever. A lot of effort was consumed in converting him from closer to starter however, and for all his troubles, his worst seasonal ERA+ was 84 (in his rookie year). Carreno may not be so fortunate.

It's nice to see the Jays doing to Scherzer today what the Tigers did to Cecil yesterday. I don't think Scherzer will have to worry about a trip back to Erie though.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#253804) #

Incidentally, running out a Carreno/Perez tandem for the first start at least would make a lot of sense.

Sano - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#253806) #

I like the move in the sense of not wasting more major league time on Cecil. I just don't like the "last-minute-ness" of it. It smacks of desperation and a lack of foresight. If Carreno was always part of the plan, I would have liked to see him pitching to major league hitters in ST. This seems like a move that has a high-probability of backfiring and making the Jays look like fools.

TamRa - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#253808) #

"I wonder how plausible it is that Cecil could make a comeback as a reliever."

I expect as much. As i said the other day, Cecil is on the Listch track at this point.

I'm fine with this as a short term arrangement. I do think maybe Carreno will be a bit exposed over a full season but he won't be out there for a full season. He's just going to stop-gap until McGowan is ready and if the next need is June or later, the team would have the option of considering Hutch, Jenkins, or McGuire as well.

Obviously if one of Romero, Morrow, or Alvarez goes south we are in trouble - but that was always going to be the case.

At the moment, as long as Drabek is back in a good place, we're okay.

After all, if you are not the Rays or the Rangers (in the AL), are you really satisfied with your fifth best starter?

Lylemcr - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#253809) #

Maybe this move was more because of what Drabek did than what Cecil did. They want Drabek as the #4. So do they want Cecil as the #5?They also don't want him to miss every other start as the 5th pitcher, so they will let a bullpen guy do the spot starts. And in a couple weeks, one of a couple things happen.

1. McGowan is ready

2. Cecil gets it together and takes the spot back

3. Somebody claims it.

The fact that he is going to AA means he is not going to get shelled in Las Vegas. Thus, they do have plans for him.

The one thing I really like is that they are saying to Drabek. "You are our #4 starter. When McGowan is healthy, he is not taking your spot." Drabek's biggest issue is between the ears. This is a good move.

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#253811) #

I expect as much. As i said the other day, Cecil is on the Listch track at this point.

Seems a bit chutzpah-ish to start predicting a guy's future role as a reliever just after strenuously arguing that he is a legit young starter whose reasonable 2012 projection is 200 IP and +2 WAR. For an optimist, you sure jumped off the Cecil bandwagon in a hurry.

China fan - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#253812) #

It's certainly a reminder of how fast the much-vaunted "pitching depth" can disappear. Yes, the Jays have tons of prospects, but most of them -- let's be honest -- need another year's experience, or more. As for the ones who seemed major-league-ready: look how fast they tumbled. Litsch, McGowan, Cecil.... All three of them were listed on the off-season depth charts, and they're all out for weeks or months. Suddenly we're counting on kids like Alvarez and Carreno and Drabek for 60% of the rotation. And yes, they'll probably do better than Jo Jo Reyes, but it's pretty risky to count on all three of them to do well.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#253815) #

I'm expecting that we will see Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire or Chad Jenkins before we see Cecil in the rotation again. I would actually not be opposed to throwing Jenkins in there now and seeing what we have. He's not a 5 star prospect who I worry about scarring (ala Snider) but you might catch lightening in a bottle. Drew and Deck I'd hold off on at this point.

TamRa - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#253820) #

" Suddenly we're counting on kids like Alvarez and Carreno and Drabek for 60% of the rotation. And yes, they'll probably do better than Jo Jo Reyes, but it's pretty risky to count on all three of them to do well."

Well sure, but the thing is, the sort of "depth pitcher" that is typically added in these situations do not usually do all that well either.

I would have been fine, and said so, with adding a guy who had the chance to actually be GOOD for a while like Bedard.

But assuming the Jays were not going to spend crazy money on Wilson or Darvish (I would have signed Darvish but clearly that's not part of their plan) then what was the alternative?

give up serious prospects for Gio or Latos maybe...but otherwise...

Is Joe Blanton, for instance, really going to pitch THAT much better than Drabek? if at all? Or even as well as Alvarez?

The depth thing is yes, always shaky in the best of times - but for me at least, my reluctance to add others from outside the organization has to do with whether the marginal improvement is worth the cost to acquire, whether that be in prospects, or contract, or the opportunity to start a guy like Drabek or McGowan.

Truth be told, in the back of my mind I've been kind of hoping Cecil would pitch himself out of the rotation because Romero/Morrow/Alvarez/McGowan/Drabek was always my favorite five in terms of expectations anyway.

The only setback I'm even seeing right now is McGowan's foot. I didn't expect Cecil to be one of the best five starters, albeit I didn't expect him to go off a cliff either - I just though Drabek would pass him.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#253821) #

I have no idea how C.J. Wilson will do, but $75 million over 5 years is not "crazy money". The Jays are spending over $12 million in 2012 for Frasor, Cordero and Oliver. That might turn out to be money well spent, but the club could certainly have managed with one or two fewer of those relievers and applied the excess for a top starter. That is water under the bridge- perhaps we will agree not to rehash that one until the season is at least a quarter old.

TamRa - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#253822) #

"Seems a bit chutzpah-ish to start predicting a guy's future role as a reliever just after strenuously arguing that he is a legit young starter whose reasonable 2012 projection is 200 IP and +2 WAR. For an optimist, you sure jumped off the Cecil bandwagon in a hurry."

I just don't see a 2 WAR guy as all that special. to me that's just an ordinary mid-back rotation guy. if I'm wrong, it's on THAT point. I still think that was reasonable albeit that was before he seemed to go in the wrong direction all spring. I still think he could reasonably do that if he regains his 2010 form.

BUT

I don't think, and didn't when I said that, that he's one of the five best major-league-ready starters in this organization, and I have said in more than one place before that ultimately he would end up traded or in the pen not because he's bad but because so many other starters in this organization are better.

I think Carreno would be competent as a major league starter - but too many are better for him to ever get that chance.
Janssen - same deal
Luis Perez, Carlos Villianueva, Chad Jenkins - same deal. I think any one of them, thrown out there 30+ times a year over their prime years would be worth 1.5-2 WAR a year.
But they won't get the chance in this organization because Romero, Morrow, McGowan, and Alvarez are already better than any of them will be at their peak, and Hutchison and McGuire both have a higher ceiling (IMO) and that's before Sanchez et al start arriving in 2015 or so.

There's just not enough opportunity for all those guys and Cecil being a lefty has a much clearer path to major league value as a late inning reliever than a starter in this organization. My comments about the projections assumed that Cecil was the presumptive 3rd starter and Drabek was being (unwisely in my view) regulated to the minors waiting for an opportunity. In that scenario, I think that a 1.5-2 WAR projection was entirely reasonable. but even then I thought he was the 6th best option and was eventually going to be pushed out of the rotation by better pitchers.

Admittedly, I did not anticipate the last two starts and that does color my view of him SOME - but in terms of projection it simply accelerates a process I fully expected (you can read the back pages of my blog if you want proof) all along. What happened in the last couple of weeks was simply that Cecil took a process that would otherwise have taken 2-3 months to play out and accelerated it to opening day.

But I'll be very clear, my opinion that Cecil is the 6th best option as a member of the rotation - at best - was not about being down on Cecil but about being high on McGowan, Drabek, Hutch etc.

Chuck - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#253823) #

Jays are spending over $12 million in 2012 for Frasor, Cordero and Oliver. That might turn out to be money well spent, but the club could certainly have managed with one or two fewer of those relievers and applied the excess for a top starter.

I have been in agreement with this position from the get go. $4M a pop for 50-60 innings starts adding up. Why not consolidate some of those little pieces into a starter? The more of those relievers you sign, the lower the diminishing returns. Just how many high leverage relief innings are there to go around?

Ryan C - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#253824) #

I think this pretty well validates those who were in favour of a potential Floyd or Haren acquisition a little while back. There is a very real possibility that we have just seen the last of Cecil. I absolutely wish him the best of luck, but it is entirely possible at this point that he never recovers to make it back to the majors.

The good news is that IMHO we have a very, very good top 3 of the rotation. The bad news is that there is potentially a lot of nothing left after that for this year.

bpoz - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#253825) #

Other than Litsch, our SPs last year were healthy. But they did not pitch well, except Romero.
They are all young. JoJo Reyes IMO was better than Drabek. Please someone look at the numbers and compare them fairly, I am lacking in that skill. Scott Richmond in 2009 was just as experienced and just as bad. To me all 3 of Drabek, JoJo Reyes & Richmond were close in experience and performance. So I will not be shocked if in 5 years we find out that they are still equivalent. Maybe only one succeeds, for me I cannot tell which it would be.

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#253826) #

I think we just have to wait and see how it all plays out. As much as I advocated chasing Darvish and (to a much lesser extent, and only if the price was right) Jackson or Floyd, AA might yet cobble together a decent rotation. The GM no doubt wants to win now, but the Jays are a dark horse and he's still playing the long game (thankfully).

hypobole - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#253828) #

I think Cecil as he is now, has value as a situational lefty in the majors and no more. His FB will uptick a bit, but even an extra 2 MPH will mean he's throwing 88-90 at best, definitely not late inning material

CeeBee - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#253829) #

Cecil always kinda scared me. Might as well see what the kids have as there's a heck of a lot of them that will be wanting a chance not to far down the road.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#253830) #

...it is entirely possible at this point that [Cecil] never recovers to make it back to the majors.

He's left-handed. He will make it back to the majors if he can successfully roll the ball to the plate.

(He may not get a chance to start again... but still, he's left-handed. Look at how many chances a guy like Bruce Chen got. Or Jo-Jo Reyes. )

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#253831) #

Cecil will probably get more chances in the majors, yeah. It's looking more and more doubtful they'll be with the Jays though. Cecil the way he is now is not going to succeed in the ALE.

Chuck - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#253832) #

Look at how many chances a guy like Bruce Chen got.

Chen and Cecil profile a lot more closely than I would have thought:

Chen: 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, 97 ERA+
Cecil: 6.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 92 ERA+

Both have been plagued by the long ball.

scottt - Tuesday, April 03 2012 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#253841) #

Cecil joins Purcey and Mills as AAA depth for now.

hypobole - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#253842) #

Cecil joins Purcey and Mills as AAA depth for now.

Expand, please. Don't understand.

Jdog - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#253843) #

CJ Wilson by all accounts wanted to go to southern california and most likely took less money to play there. I don't think the Jays had any chance with him, but yeah he would have been a perfect fit at that price range.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#253846) #

I like the Jays' bullpen depth. Look at Tampa (Farnsworth) and Boston (Bailey) in recent days - you can never have enough pitching.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#253847) #

I understand that Wilson may have preferred California (I wish they all could be...) and Oswalt would prefer to be close to his ranch and that Darvish was part of an unpredictable closed bidding process and that Edwin Jackson had Boras as his agent.

It does seem that the AA-Farrell team doesn't have much patience with soft-tossing lefties in the rotation. They are certainly not alone in that, but knowing this preference affects how one builds a club.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#253848) #

Well, Cecil has had 65 starts in the majors so far and hasn't shown he can be an above average starter yet. Average, sure, but not a potential ace.

If the Jays wanted to remain in the land of the mediocre forever then Cecil fits in. I see Cecil as being in the John Cerutti mode - a guy who is solid but will never be viewed as irreplaceable. Looking back at Cerutti his best years he pushed his HR/9 rate down from 1.5+ to sub 1 for 2 years and those years he had a 119/126 ERA+. The 15 win season for Cecil? That was his one year sub 1 (others were 1.6) for HR/9.

Pitchers like Cerutti and Cecil are good to have around and available but you cannot count on them. I think when you have a pitcher with extreme splits ala Cecil you have to seriously look at the pen. Next year I suspect we'll see 3 guys who came up to the Jays as starters being key in the pen Litsch-Janssen-Cecil. As starters they were in the $7-10 mil a year range for value, but the Jays need $15-25 mil pitchers to contend. In the pen they will be $3-7 mil guys (solid setup, weak closers). I can see the desire to try them as starters but with the number of kids coming it is time to accept their highest value (to the Jays) will be in the pen.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#253849) #

Here are the LHP starters on the AL's best teams (I might be missing one or two):

Sabathia (NY)
Lester (Bos)
Price (TB)
Moore (TB)
Smyly (Det)
CJ Wilson (LAA)
Holland (Tex)
Harrison (Tex)

These are all power lefties, possibly with the exception of Smyly (who apparently throws around 90-92). For whatever reason, soft-tossing lefties just don't seem to be in vogue among the AL's superpowers. And as fangraphs recently pointed out, Cecil's mediocre control (3.1 BB/9 IP) probably isn't good enough to compensate for his lack of velo.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#253850) #

I don't happen to agree with that point of view, but that wasn't what I was getting at. If you know that you have very little patience with soft-tossing lefties, you bear this in mind when contemplating your rotation depth and consequent needs in the off-season.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#253851) #

I think we've seen that AA's modus operandi is to make value deals for upside (including by extracting as much value as possible from players currently on the roster) and not to try to force contention ahead of schedule. I have no doubt that he would have loved to upgrade the rotation in the off-season with SPs more to his liking (power arms like Darvish and Latos) but he wasn't able to land them at the right price.

Incidentally, look at the current composition of the rotation: Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek and (eventually, we hope) McGowan. All power arms. Will Hutchison and McGuire (neither of whom throws especially hard) buck the trend? Time will tell. But I think Farrell's comment about wanting power and an ability to subdue lefties and righties is telling.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#253853) #

I agree with that analysis of what is going on. The thing is that if you are looking for a certain kind of starting pitcher, you may have to pay more because of demand, which means that one's preference for power starting pitchers comes face-to-face with one's preference for value acquisitions.

One of the things that I liked about the Gillick development pattern is his willingness to devote considerable resources to acquiring and developing a variety of different pitchers (from Stieb, Clancy, Guzman,Stottlemyre and Cone to Key, Wells, Cerutti and Alexander). It is true that the Gillick clubs usually had better defence than the current version of the Jays. That may not be the case in a year or two, though.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#253854) #

Good point. Interestingly, AA seems to have taken a more eclectic approach with the bullpen, which features power arms (Santos, Frasor), a 40-something soft-tosser (Oliver), and several arms in between (Janssen, Perez, Villaneuva, Litsch).

On a different note: I don't mind Carreno getting a few starts, but I would prefer to see him in the 'pen. I think his slider-dominated repertoire and middling control may get exposed a few times through the order against good teams.

Rich - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#253855) #

The good news is that IMHO we have a very, very good top 3 of the rotation.

I'd say we potentially have a very good top 3. Only Romero has thus far shown the consistency needed to be a top starter on a playoff club. Morrow's results still haven't consistently caught up to his stuff and Alvarez is still extremely young. To me there is absolutely no question the rotation is the weak spot of this team. IF every single thing goes right (Morrow harnesses his stuff, Alvarez stays healthy and keeps progressing, McGowan stays off the DL, and Drabek truly has figured things out) this team can contend. But that's an overly optimistic view at this stage - to assume that everything is going to go right both health and performance wise when really the rotation has only 1 pitcher with a proven record of sustained success at this level.

bpoz - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#253856) #

Most years come Opening day I am reasonably positive. I manage to overlook the obvious or not obvious flaws. Not this year, I see us as an also ran. I FEEL there will not be enough miracles. I think this is due to the well thought out comments of the Bauxites posters, through the winter ie we need this & we need that.

The amazing thing is how so many of you have become really quite hopeful in your recent comments. Not predictions necessarily. Is it just Spring or new beginnings.

My feelings unfortunately are " Listen we will not make the playoffs". So good for you guys. Hang in there.

Maybe I suddenly got older. But I will still enjoy the season.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#253858) #

The Jays current roster on their website is...
13 hitters - 2 CA, 6 IF, 5 OF but no Vizquel
14 pitchers - McGowan & Litsch can be left off (DL) getting us to the usual 12.

The infield has EE, Escobar, Johnson, Lawrie, Lind (starters) and Valbuena (no options) while missing Vizquel.

The outfield has Bautista, Rasmus, Thames (starters) and Davis & Francisco.

The rotation we all know (Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek, Carreno). The pen has Santos, Cordero, Frasor, Janssen, Oliver (locks) and Perez & Villanueva.

So Valbuena is safe to say will be cut for Vizquel and we are done. But is Valbuena going to be cut or is there a minor trade coming?

Chuck - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#253859) #

But is Valbuena going to be cut or is there a minor trade coming?

Valbuena for Jo-Jo Reyes to shore up the rotation. No? Not a good idea?

John Northey - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#253860) #

Wonder if they could pull off a trade like the one that brought Jason Frasor here - find a guy who will be useful long term (still in minors today) for someone they'd have to release anyways.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#253861) #

If I was Ruben Amaro I'd be very interested in Luis Valbuena right about now...enough to give up some baby arm with upside.

China fan - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#253864) #

Valbuena was placed on waivers, and the Cubs took him. Apparently he had no trade value.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#253866) #

Not surprised that it was the Cubs. There's a new kid in town.

Thomas - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#253869) #

Everybody loves [him], so don't let them down.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 04 2012 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#253881) #

I'm ecstatic that the Jays didn't pull an Eveland/Reyes and stick Laffey in there.

I think all 4 of the AA guys - Carreno, McGuire, Jenkins, Hutch - are in line for a shot at the big club this year and Carreno's as good a choice as any for now.

I'm more worried about Drabek than anyone. He still hasn't sorted out his command issues, I don't think.

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