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A very special episode of the Boxcast this week. Episode 4: For a Few Boxes More. We open with the debut of the Boxcast's original theme song. Next, Anders and Thomas join me for an analysis of the second wildcard and how it affects the Jays in 2012 and the future. In our second segment, special guest Gerry McDonald joins us via Skype to talk prospects (around 22:00). Finally, a round-up of Jays spring training news and other news around the majors (around 43:00.)

Listen here.

Follow the link above to listen. You can also download it by clicking on the arrow on the far right of the embedded Quicktime player and selecting "Save as Quicktime movie", or by right-clicking on the embedded player and selecting "Save Video As..."

You can also subscribe in iTunes. In iTunes, go to "Advanced -> Subscribe to Podcast" and enter this feed:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/TheBoxcastPodcast

Fingers crossed we'll actually get it in the iTunes Store soon.

Quick personal plug: if you like the theme song, or even if you're indifferent to it, or even if you despise it, you're welcome to check out some of my original music here. I'm working towards an album to come out in the summer.
Boxcast Episode 4: Featuring Gerry McDonald, and the Boxcast Theme Song! | 38 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Anders - Monday, March 05 2012 @ 04:37 PM EST (#252489) #
At one point during the podcast Dave's apartments cat started clawing at my leg and I got distracted and lost focus.

True story.

Chuck - Monday, March 05 2012 @ 04:46 PM EST (#252490) #
The opening theme had a strong Randy Bachman influence. I was waiting for you to break into American Woman.
92-93 - Monday, March 05 2012 @ 06:33 PM EST (#252493) #
Enjoyed this week's discussion a lot, and not just because I got a shout out. I agree with whoever was saying that there are more than just statistical considerations when it comes to Hechavarria and Escobar long term at SS. If Escobar's defense holds steady you don't necessarily improve via a position change just because Hechavarria is thought of as the better defensive SS. Escobar6/Hechavarria4 might be a better defensive alignment than Escobar4/Hechavarria6 (if Yunel isn't well suited for 2B) and their overall production might be similar if a move off SS hampers Yunel's confidence on the offensive side of the ball.
Chuck - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 09:32 AM EST (#252499) #

It's early yet, but I have a difficult time imagining Hechavarria's bat carrying him anywhere other than shortstop. As it is now, it's not clear that his bat will even carry him there.

John Northey - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 10:25 AM EST (#252502) #
Hechavarria is in an important year. At 23 he is still young, however expectations are high for him. He has had 1000 professional PA's so he should be adjusted to life in the minors. Last year was his first with 600+ PA, and he now has a minor league line of 255/291/362 but his OPS by level is ...
A+: 509 in 167 PA
AA: 637 in 775 PA
AAA: 968 in 116 PA

No one thinks he will keep that 968 OPS, but in Vegas an 800+ is needed if he is to become a solid ML everyday player. His options are running low - 2 used, 2 to go. So this year and next are the last ones he can go to the minors iirc.

My guess is the Jays plan on Hechavarria being in AAA until July or August then calling him up and trading Johnson if a good deal is out there. If he can hit for a 90+ OPS+ in the majors he'll be a star, an 80+ and his defense is as advertised then he'll be a regular. Sub 80 and he is John McDonald v2.
Gerry - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 10:47 AM EST (#252503) #

Fangraphs recently had readers grade the TV crews for each team.  The Jays crew of Buck and Tabler didn't fare too well in that survey.

Now fangraphs has moved on to radio crews.  Here is the link to opine on the Jays radio team.

Gerry - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 11:23 AM EST (#252505) #
For what it's worth John Farrell has noted that Hechavarria has improved bat speed this spring and is stronger.   That might be up there with "he is in the best shape of his life" but there is hope he can still improve.
Thomas - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 11:36 AM EST (#252506) #
I agree with whoever was saying that there are more than just statistical considerations when it comes to Hechavarria and Escobar long term at SS.

That was Gerry and it was an astute point, particularly given the rumours about Escobar's attitude in Atlanta. He hasn't shown any signs of attitude issues here in Toronto, to my knowledge and recollection, but if he is the type of personality to react poorly to a perceived demotion, it is something that the Jays management team should, and I'm sure will, consider.

greenfrog - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 12:02 PM EST (#252507) #
Interesting that despite the relatively low rating, the Toronto television crew received more votes than any other team. If nothing else, it suggests that there are a lot of Jays fans within the online/sabermetric community.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 08:04 PM EST (#252514) #

Yunel Escobar (29) had three very good years (not great) with Atlanta.  His first off-year he is treated like a pariah, and traded as fast as they could do it.   LUCKY US.  

At the time of his signing (all glove, no hit), Adeiny Hechavarria rejected the New York Yankees offer to accept Toronto's offer.   LUCKY US.

Yunel Escobar's trade year was a good deal for him, playing in a city that appreciates him.   He improved that year, following if with a very good (not great) year, just last year.   With his being under contract for the next four years, any decision on the Shortstop position need not be rushed.   LUCKY US.

Adeiny Hechavarria may have figured hitting out while still in AA, but he surprised most with his abilities at AAA.   He'll learn to play 2nd Base this year, to be the answer at 2B and SS in case of longer term injury at said position(s).   He might also become our long term answer at 2B for 3-4 years, if not more.   LUCKY US.

How many teams have Shortstop problems, finding that one good shortstop?   We have TWO, and some braindead armchair GMs want to trade one!   This Team has problems, just not this one.

smcs - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 08:50 PM EST (#252515) #
We have TWO,

Who is the 2nd? The guy who makes John McDonald look like a power hitter?
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 06 2012 @ 09:30 PM EST (#252516) #
No, the guy who makes John McDonald like a below average infielder.   The guy who will show he can hit here (just a wee bit better than John).
smcs - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 12:46 PM EST (#252530) #
No, the guy who makes John McDonald like a below average infielder. The guy who will show he can hit here (just a wee bit better than John).

Okay, but if he goes to 2nd base, his value goes way down. If Hech doesn't learn how to hit, or, at the very least, learn how to take a walk, he can max out as, what, a 2 win SS? That, no doubt, has value (about 2 wins worth), but is that a long-term solution? If you are plugging him in at SS, what has to be around him for this team to be a contender? I don't think Escobar can play 2nd, so let's say he moves to 3B, Lawrie moves to RF and Bautista moves to 1B. Is that team significantly better than the projected 2012 Jays?
bpoz - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 01:08 PM EST (#252531) #
"Braindead Armchair GMs". I believe this is a phrase, Braindead ( Adjective), Armchair & GM are nouns. Meaning that this is not an actual GM or an Assistant GM.

So Richard SS you are speaking passionately. Am I correct? If so, have you considered all the possibilities in your analysis. Well you probably have.
Escobar & A Hech at 2B & SS in some form in the near future sounds very strong. Personally I think 1) Escobar may play 2B willingly or be a little reluctant. Iorge/Mullinicks if I remember correctly seemed willing to give up 3B for Gruber, which worked out fairly well IMO. 2) I like the Marcum for Lawrie trade, even though I thought AA could have squeezed out a not so great 2nd prospect from the Brewers.

As far as trading one of A Hech or Escobar, that is definitely a tough call. IMO, as the established player Escobar probably has more value, but then 600 more ABs for A Hech with some being as a Sept call up may give a better picture of his hitting, hopefully good. My conclusion is that "IF" one is traded, Escobar will bring back more value. But the other problem, which could be a bigger problem is that SS is a key position, but then so is 2B, also CF & Catcher. We seem to be loaded at CF & Catcher so getting an elite player/prospect there seems pointless because the team does not get stronger but weaker position wise.
So for example if LAA offered M Trout + their best prospect and maybe even their 2nd best prospect, that is a good package but it would make the team weaker as far as winning goes.
John Northey - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 01:53 PM EST (#252535) #
But does Hech's value drop at 2B as much as we think? Stats are Avg/OBP/Slg/OPS OPS+

Hitting stats overall 2B/SS 2011
2B: 260/320/389/709 97
SS: 263/317/380/697 94

Here are the stats for 2010...
2B: 265/330/389/719 98
SS: 262/319/374/693 91

And 2009...
2B: 271/336/416/752 100
SS: 271/328/393/721 92

So the spread in OPS has been 31 points, 26 points, and 12 points. Going to OPS+ you can see SS have been between 91 and 94, but 2B from 97 to 100. So a 6 point OPS+ spread seems reasonable to assume.

Adeiny's ZiPS projection is 241/269/345 614 = 65 OPS+ (based on Snider last year having a 615 OPS and 65 OPS+).

While a 65 OPS+ at SS or 2B would be much better than in LF obviously (although LF was just a 102 OPS+ last year but 115 the year before) it still would be unacceptable for more than a 'John McDonald' role. It would be 26-29 points lower than the average SS and 32-25 points lower than the average 2B.

Now, is 6 points of OPS+ worth a lot? A rough guess is $400k of value per point (using Encarnacion vs Lind last year, 10 point spread $4.4 million spread in 'value' from FanGraphs, same playing time, little defensive value for either). Yeah, extremely rough, but something to work with. If that is true then 6 points = $2.4 million lost value by shifting from SS to 2B before factoring in any defensive losses (ie: a premium defensive SS is worth more than a premium defensive 2B).

Hopefully Hech has the ability to hit better and in his 3rd pro year can show it. As I've said before, anything below 800 OPS in Vegas will be a bad sign. He has value in a John McDonald role but I think we'd all prefer an Ozzie Smith role (late 80's version).
Gerry - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 03:14 PM EST (#252536) #
The Jays signed a Dominican outfielder Andrea DeAza.  The Jays also signed a couple of minor league free agent pitchers, RHP Fernando Hernandez and LHP Jonathan Torres.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 07:44 PM EST (#252542) #
Thanks Gerry on the Andres DeAza signing. Does anyone know more about that Showcase for these players. Recent probably means under 4 months ago but DR means someone had to pay to bring them to Florida & house them.

Yes I know that most will not be successful but someone must have thought that the cost was worth it. I hope that there were enough signings so that those good people can at least break even.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 08:51 PM EST (#252543) #

A few points:

1) Adeiny Hechavarria will be in AAA, this season, baring injuries to Kelly Johnson or Yunel Escobar.  

2) Adeiny at age 23 (15 April 1989), as compared to Yunel at age 29 (02 November 1982), is far more likely to learn how to play 2B - well.   It is my belief he will be a very good 2B, but a much better SS.   

3) Yunel Escobar is of more value to us playing SS, than we would receive in a trade, despite his friendly contract through 2015.

4) If Adeiny is not needed for injury relief, chances are good he's called up in September.

5) If he can hit, (even a little bit), it's possible he could be our Starting 2B in 2013, at least until 2015.

Gerry - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 09:17 PM EST (#252544) #

Hechavarria lived up to expectations today with a hit and a couple of great plays n the field. From Sportsnet.ca:

Fans in attendance at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium on Wednesday got to see what all the fuss is about with Adeiny Hechavarria.

The 22-year-old Cuban shortstop made a pair of slick plays in the field, including a spectacular dive to his left to snare a rocket one-hopper off the bat of Cody Ross. Hechavarria quickly jumped to his feet and delivered a strong an accurate throw to first to retire the Red Sox left fielder.

In the bottom of the seventh, Hechavarria led off by ripping a ball into the gap in right-centre. Rounding second without hesitation he dove into third head-first, but was called out on a close play thanks to a perfect Red Sox relay.

It wasn’t the wisest option late in a tie game with none out, nevertheless, as he returned to the Blue Jays dugout, the Dunedin faithful rose to their feet and gave him a standing ovation for an afternoon's worth of entertainment.

Gerry - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 09:59 PM EST (#252545) #
Reports say DeAza got $150,000 from the Jays. The top, top guys sign in July. The second tier guys sign later than that. However because you can sign Dominican players at 16 it leaves players who develop a little later to appear as second tier when they might just be late developers. Reportedly DeAza will play in the DSL this year.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 10:12 PM EST (#252546) #

The Jays signed a Dominican outfielder Andrea DeAza...

As far as I can tell, any signings of IFAs before July 2nd do not count on the new CBAs IFA signing limit.   I think last years signing year goes from 1 or 2 July 2011 to 30 June or 1 July 2012, which has no limit.   I expect more IFA signings of anybody with the slightest chance of being a player, because no one wants to miss anyone with no limit.   If I am wrong, please tell me.

mendocino - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 01:48 AM EST (#252547) #

Andres DeAza

The Toronto Blue Jays strike again, picking up another quality prospect with upside. Andres DeAza is a 17yr old Outfielder from St. Luis, Dominican Republic. He stands 6’4” 190lb with room to fill out athletic frame. He developed his talent in Santo Domingo with notable trainer Josue Herrera. Andres was a 2011 July 2 eligible player who was passed up in last year’s signing period. DeAza posses solid average arm strength, he is a solid fielder who can play any outfield position and his raw power doesn’t go unnoticed. DeAza participated in various showcases in recent months; In October 2011 he traveled to Florida to participate in the Team One Futures East showcase in Jupiter, Fl.

 
10/1/2011 - Team One Futures East 2011 “
DeAza already looks like a big leaguer, with an athletic build on a wide shouldered and well proportioned frame. He showed average to solid average arm strength on the ML 20-80 scouting scale, generated excellent carry from an over top release. At the plate, he showed good rhythm to hit and generated above average raw power thanks to strength and leverage in his right handed stroke. He drove the ball especially well to the opposite field thanks to a short and direct route to contact and an ability to drive through the ball from deep in the zone.”

In February he was selected to the DPL All-Star game and recently selected to the DPL Elite Travel Team. Due to Toronto’s interest in DeAza he decided to become a professional and not travel with the DPL squad to spring training as he agreed to terms with the Blue Jays for $150,000. He will most likely start his professional career in the rookie level Dominican Summer League.

Congratulations to Andres DeAza, Josue Herrera and the Toronto Blue Jays.

video

Gerry - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 12:04 PM EST (#252549) #
The Centennial College journalism students have hit Florida hard.   They have a series of short profiles of Blue Jay minor league players at their Toronto Observer site.
Gerry - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 01:00 PM EST (#252550) #
Trying to remove the italics test test
Gerry - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 10:22 PM EST (#252566) #

Anthony Gose impressed everyone with a catch today. Arden Zwelling devotes a whole story to it.

“Off the bat, I’m thinking that’s a double,” said Frasor after the game. “No doubt about it.” But Frasor hadn’t seen Gose yet.

“When you watch that from the mound, you follow the ball. Then all of a sudden you see the player,” Frasor said with his hands up in front of him, index fingers extended, before slowly moving them towards each other until they touched right in front of his nose. “And they meet—they come to a point.” That point was on the warning track in right centre where Gose laid out horizontally, leading with his glove reached out long in front of him. He bruised the ground with his midsection, small brown pellets spraying around him. He slid head first and came to a stop just before the Jet’s Pizza advertisement tattooed on the wall.


There is much more of a poetic nature in the link.

Gerry - Friday, March 09 2012 @ 04:32 PM EST (#252585) #

From mlb.com, John Farrell on Travis d'Arnaud:

"There's still some work to do on the receiving end," Farrell said. "He's a good offensive player right now. His consistency of blocking balls, of receiving -- those are areas that can look outstanding at times, and yet there are occasional lapses. We're doing all we can to tighten that up. That doesn't mean that he's a below-average catcher, by any means. But as he matures and gets accustomed to handling pitchers over the long haul, then he can anticipate a little more just by familiarity."

Gerry - Friday, March 09 2012 @ 06:06 PM EST (#252586) #
Blue Jay prospect Mitchell Taylor has been suspended for 50 games for a second drug offense. The offense was for a drug of abuse which I believe can also be called a recreational drug. The first offense does not come with a suspension. I assume, but don't know, that is why Taylor left his team late in the 2011 season. Taylor will miss all of April and most of May.
greenfrog - Friday, March 09 2012 @ 09:16 PM EST (#252589) #
Sounds like a heckuva catch by Gose. Can't wait to see him in the majors (shame he'll have to play on the RC turf - a CF talent like that belongs on grass IMO).
Gerry - Sunday, March 11 2012 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#252605) #

In the Boxcast I talked about whether Escobar would be willing to move to second to make room for Hechavarria. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe adds his two cents to the issue today:

Yunel Escobar, SS, Blue Jays - What needs to happen - maybe not immediately, but perhaps by next season - is that Escobar must move to second base to make room for Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria. Escobar loves being a shortstop, so there is a bit of trepidation among some in the organization as to how he will accept this. Escobar is a very good shortstop who could start for many teams, but the Jays have their version of Jose Iglesias; they think Hechavarria is going to be pretty special.


I assume that by 2013 Hechavarria will be the better shortstop (he is already) but that Escobar will be the better hitter. The Jays may have to decide whether to keep the high offense, marginal defense SS, or the great defense, marginal offense SS.

budgell - Sunday, March 11 2012 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#252607) #
Anthony Gose impressed everyone with a catch today. Arden Zwelling devotes a whole story to it.

“Off the bat, I’m thinking that’s a double,” said Frasor after the game. “No doubt about it.” But Frasor hadn’t seen Gose yet.

“When you watch that from the mound, you follow the ball. Then all of a sudden you see the player,” Frasor said with his hands up in front of him, index fingers extended, before slowly moving them towards each other until they touched right in front of his nose. “And they meet—they come to a point.” That point was on the warning track in right centre where Gose laid out horizontally, leading with his glove reached out long in front of him. He bruised the ground with his midsection, small brown pellets spraying around him. He slid head first and came to a stop just before the Jet’s Pizza advertisement tattooed on the wall.


There is much more of a poetic nature in the link.

What dreck! This would be declined by the editor of a high school paper as "too over the top". Unbelievably bad.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, March 11 2012 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#252611) #
Yunel Escobar is 29 years old (02 Nov. '82), while Adeiny Hehavarria will be 23 early in 2012 (15 Apr. '89).   Hechavarria is taking reps at 2B.   Now I realize some people reading this don't use common sense, while some others seldom bother to think.   In 2013-15, SS: Escobar; 2B: Hechavarria.   In 2016 on, SS: Hechavarria (age: 26-27).   It is much easier for a 22-23 year-old to learn to play a new position well than it is for a 30 year-old to do so.
TamRa - Monday, March 12 2012 @ 03:51 AM EDT (#252620) #
"Taylor will miss all of April and most of May."

Will the suspension apply to the full season schedule, or the short-season schedule? And do they have the liberty to assign him to the full season level in order to minimize the impact?

bpoz - Monday, March 12 2012 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#252623) #
Well thought out TamRa.
Gerry - Monday, March 12 2012 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#252629) #
The games on the minor league side start this week.  Gregor Chisholm is at minor league camp today and he tweets that John Stilson will pitch in a game tomorrow.
bpoz - Monday, March 12 2012 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#252647) #
Has S Santos pitched in ST yet this year? And how has he looked?
K Williams is not beyond selling damaged goods.
Gerry - Wednesday, March 14 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#252681) #
If any of you want to know what life in minor league spring training is like, check out this blog from Philly minor leaguer Eric Pettis.
Dewey - Wednesday, March 14 2012 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#252684) #
Very enjoyable, Gerry.  Thanks for sharing it.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 14 2012 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#252695) #
Good insight on Joel Carreno & his use of his slider, Gerry.

Similarly Alvarez on developing a 3rd & 4th pitch.
I feel that C Jenkins is using his poorer pitches more so as to develop them. This would lead to getting hit more as you said.
Boxcast Episode 4: Featuring Gerry McDonald, and the Boxcast Theme Song! | 38 comments | Create New Account
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