Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Expanded Playoffs Are Happening in 2012

Expanded Playoffs Are Happening in 2012

Ken Rosenthal is tweeting that MLB has expanded the playoffs from eight to ten teams, starting in the 2012 season. The official announcement will occur tomorrow. Any further details will be noted as they become available.

And October baseball is slightly more likely in Toronto.

Posted by Thomas on Wednesday, February 29 2012 @ 02:39 PM EST.

Expanded Playoffs Are Happening in 2012 | 48 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Wednesday, February 29 2012 @ 03:00 PM EST (#252375) #

All right. We can all hope for a fast start, and that the missing piece or two can be added in May.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, February 29 2012 @ 04:59 PM EST (#252379) #

And Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins wants to go by his given first name from now on. I approve.

Mike Green - Wednesday, February 29 2012 @ 05:12 PM EST (#252380) #

Although I once did have designs on opening a restaurant, I regretfully won't be following suit. Good on him, though.

TamRa - Wednesday, February 29 2012 @ 07:48 PM EST (#252385) #

Stanton is in a position to be called whatever he wants to be called...

hypobole - Wednesday, February 29 2012 @ 08:54 PM EST (#252387) #

Fangraphs' Brad Woodrum looks at JPA's combination of plus power/poor OBP, while admitting he has no idea if JPA is actually JPA's nickname.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2012-j-p-arencibia-projections/

John Northey - Wednesday, February 29 2012 @ 10:26 PM EST (#252391) #

In honour of the expanded playoffs...
How far back of playoff slot #2 the Jays finished
2011: 9 games back of Boston
2010: 4 games back of Boston
2009: 12 games back of Texas
2008: 3 games back of the Yankees
2007: 5 games back of Detroit/Seattle
2006: 2 games back of LAA
2005: 13 games back of Cleveland
2004: 23 1/2 games back of Oakland
2003: 7 games back of Seattle
2002: 15 games back of Boston
2001: 5 games back of Minnesota
2000: 7 games back of Cleveland
1999: 3 games back of Oakland
1998: 3 games AHEAD of Anaheim !!!!
1997: 8 games back of Anaheim
1996: 11 games back of 3 teams
1995: 21 1/2 games back of California
1994: 9 1/2 games back of Baltimore

So if the Wild Card era had 2 wild cards from the start the Jays would've made the playoffs once post-1993 and been within 5 games 7 times, just 2 back in 2006.

That sure would change Jays history. Making the playoffs in 1998 could've changed a lot as Clemens was amazing, mixed with Delgado in the heart of the order would've made that one game playoff lots of fun and might have kept Clemens from using his out clause.

Wonder how JPR would've reacted if the Jays were just 2 back in the end in 2006...

92-93 - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 06:42 AM EST (#252392) #

Here's how many games back of the 2nd wild card the Jays have been the last few years on July 31st, the trade deadline:

2011: 3.5 games
2010: 5 games
2009: 9 games
2008: 6 games
2007: 5.5 games
2006: 5.5 games
2005: 5.5 games

John Northey - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 09:41 AM EST (#252395) #

I'd generally put 5 games back as the dividing line. That is where I tend to feel hope that the Jays could catch up and beyond that is the 'dang, but if we dream enough' area. 10+ back is the 'sigh...what prospects can we get for player abc'.

So 2011 was fairly close then under the new rules. Makes sense as the big drop came after the team pretty much gave up (ie: trading the entire bullpen for a slumping CF with potential - July 27th, 4 1/2 games out of 2nd WC, 10 behind real WC but it ended up just 1 1/2 behind the eventual WC winner). Doesn't change that the trade made sense long term, but for 2011 it didn't help.

Funny how close the Jays were to Tampa at that point. I remember hoping the Jays could finish ahead of Tampa as that would've been a good sign. Little did we know then that it would've meant making the playoffs.

bpoz - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 10:30 AM EST (#252398) #

How close if you use Sept 1st. I think in 2008 we may not have been that far off. Not bad for a poor start.

Also rules of thumb. 1st place at the All Star game carried a lot of weight.

I will look for 5 back July 31st & 3 back Sept 1st as good markers.

John Northey - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 10:42 AM EST (#252399) #

Morning of September 1st....
2011: 6 1/2 back of 2nd WC (Tampa)
2010: 5 back (Boston)
2009: 12 1/2 back (Texas)
2008: 6 1/2 back (Minnesota)
2007: 5 1/2 back (Seattle)
2006: 9 back (Minnesota)
2005: 8 back (LAA)
2004: don't worry about it
2003: 11 back (Boston)
2002: 17 back (Boston)
2001: 7 back (Boston)
2000: 1/2 back (Boston) and 1 1/2 back of WC (Cleveland)

So in 2000 the Jays actually WERE in contention as September rolled around. The Jays then went 13-16 while Cleveland went 20-12 and Oakland went 22-7 to blow well past the Jays.

bpoz - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 10:48 AM EST (#252400) #

I can see some strange betting lines in that 1 game playoff. TB VS LAA... would the better team if there is one be favored or the bigger market with its pool of potential gamblers.

ColiverPhD - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 01:05 PM EST (#252404) #

This is a great informational post. One additional team and a "play-in" game is something I am all for, but the Blue Jays would not have benefited in the past.

However, there is a psychological incentive beginning at the beginning of Spring Training. Being in the AL East, with New York and Boston (and Tampa Bay as well), the Blue Jays knew that they would have to have close to a "perfect season" to contend. Let's just not show John Northey's results to the players.

To achieve you have to believe!!!

Lugnut Fan - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 02:00 PM EST (#252407) #

I'm all for the one game playoff for wild card teams. I think it will actually put more emphasis on winning your division. Look at last season. Had the Cardinals had to play in that one game playoff, they may have lost and not moved on in the playoffs. However, if they had won, it is probably a safe assumption that they throw Carpenter in the one game play off and then had to go with their number 2 to start the series with the Phillies. The series may have turned out differently since Carpenter most likely would not have been available for game 5.

John Northey - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 02:37 PM EST (#252408) #

Actually the Jays probably would like the idea that they would've been less than 5 out at the end in 2010, 2008, and 2006 (exactly 5 out in 2007). 5 wins is what you could expect from one or two star additions or a couple of guys having career years. That is something easy for players/fans to imagine happening.

Remember, last years starters at CA/1B/2B/CF and the 4 others with 200+ PA were sub-100 for OPS+ (some a lot sub). The rotation after Romero was 5 guys with sub-90 ERA+'s (as starters) before you get to Alvarez' 10 starts. Hopefully 2012 won't see 12 guys starting and 10 of them being 90 or less for ERA+ as a starter.

Hope abounds. Alvarez, Morrow both have 110+ ERA+, Cecil & McGowan/etc. stay over 90, Romero stays an ace, Johnson & Rasmus recover from poor years, Lind has a dead cat bounce and this team suddenly is a contender.

TamRa - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 05:35 PM EST (#252414) #

I'm going to do a long blog post on this later but since John brought it up...

with an extra playoff spot since the strike, the Jays (assuming nothing else changed)...

Were in the playoffs in '98

Were mathematically eliminated with only 3 to play in '99

Were eliminated with 3 to play in '00

Were never really in it but managed to stay mathematically in reach (in a weak field) until October 2 (five left to play) in '01

Were knocked out with 2 left to play in '06

With 4 left to play in '07

With 2 left to play in '08

and with 5 left to play in 2010

You want meaningful games in September? You'd have had them 7 different years since '93 if this had been in play (laying aside "alternate universe" considerations like whether or not Ash would or JP would have been fired as quickly and so forth)

Chuck - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 06:12 PM EST (#252416) #

However, if they had won, it is probably a safe assumption that they throw Carpenter in the one game play off

If he's even available for the one-game playoff... Teams are going to have to simultaneously try to win a wild card berth and plan for game 163.

bpoz - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 06:21 PM EST (#252418) #

NYY, Boston, TB, LAA & Texas most likely are considered the favorites to take 4 of the 5 playoff spots available to them.
TB is the only financially poor team, so they could weaken especially if the GM & Manager decide to leave.
So given that we actually beat NYY & Boston once each in the last decade, I am sure that can happen again once every 4-6 years. Maybe it does not matter that we beat them because they had a bad year.

So logically we do not have to be better than we have been. So 85-89 wins could do it, for the past. But now we have LAA, Texas & TB being much stronger. So +3.... 88-92 may be enough.

BlueJayWay - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 06:39 PM EST (#252419) #

TamRa's post is very good. The thing at this point is not necessarily making the playoffs (or play-in) but just being in some kind of race. Over the wildcard era, the second WC in the AL, had it existed, would have averaged about 90 wins. Quite a few years it would have only taken 87-89 wins to get in. So if you end up, say, an 85 win team, (our record just year before last), then you probably won't win it, but you'll probably be within striking distance all season. You could be playing meaningful games right up into the last week.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 01 2012 @ 08:58 PM EST (#252422) #

In 2011, Toronto won 81 and lost 81. Current projections (possibly developed by some braindead bottom dwellers) have the Jays winning 79 to 81 games. That brings some questions to mind.

Question # 1: You keep the 2011 Rotation, Outfield, Infield and Bench, but you get to have the 2012 Bullpen. How many more wins would this team have? I believe 6 more wins are possible, with just an improvement in the Bullpen. It's possible this Bullpen could have increased the confidence the Starters have in their stuff.

Question # 2: You keep the 2011 Rotation and Bullpen, but you get to keep the 2012 (plus late 2011) improvements in Outfield, Infield and Bench. How many more wins would this team have? I believe 6 more wins are possible, with just a new full season for the Batters.

Question # 3: You keep the 2011 Bullpen, Outfield, Infield and Bench, but you get to have the 2012 Rotation. How many more wins would this team have? I believe 6 more wins are possible, with just the expected improvement in the Starting Pitching.

Question # 4: Where will Toronto sit with 91 wins? Or with 99 wins?

TamRa - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 01:45 AM EST (#252426) #

Look at it like this. the Jays need 9 more wins.

Can we safely assume that Santos as the closer is worth +1?
Can we safely assume that McGowan over JoJo is worth +1?
Can we safely assume that a full year of Johnson over Hill is +1?
Can we safely assume that a full year of Lawrie over the incumbent 3B situation is worth +1?
Can we safely assume that CF in 2012 will be better than '11 by +1?
Can we assume that Cordero/Oliver over Rauch/Camp are +1?

that's six of the nine without even trying hard.

Add +1 for Alvarez over Drabek et al (last year) and that's seven.

Get one more out of Cecil and one more out of Morrow and there ya go.

I know it doesn't work EXACTLY like that, but it's a decent shoestring approximation.

Chuck - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 07:47 AM EST (#252427) #

So nobody regresses?

mathesond - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 08:52 AM EST (#252428) #

And no other teams improve either!

Lylemcr - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 09:00 AM EST (#252429) #

The nice thing about a young team, is that you feel that players will progress and not regress.

The only players that could regress are Bautista, Encarnacion, Romero and Lawrie (and if he regresses, it still will be better than the 3rd baseman than we had 2/3 from last year.

But there are a lot of people who should be better than last year or better than the person who was in thier formidable position.

I am predicting a competitive team to the trading deadline and AA gets a peice or two fill some holes.

Paul D - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 09:26 AM EST (#252430) #

Every player can regress, no matter the age. Look at Rasmus, or Hill, or Lind, or Josh Phelps, etc. Some players will play better than projected, but some will play worse.

I did just get the new BP, and they are very very high on McGowan and Morrow.

John Northey - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 09:36 AM EST (#252431) #

There are two major questions...
1) Will everyone stay healthy, and if not who goes down?
2) Will the kids progress more than the vets drop off?

By position vs the league the Jays had...
sOPS+ (OPS+ vs others at position)...

Sub-80 (ie: horrid)...
P (19), PH (45) - these positions help explain the issues in interleague play, it is one thing for your pitchers to be poor hitters, but the Jays were horrid even compared to other pitchers.
CF (61), 2B (79) - these are locks to improve I'd say and to improve drastically

Sub-100 (ie: bad but not historically so)...
LF (86), 1B (89) - traditional offensive slots that were offensive but not in a good way. Thames was over 100 while in LF, Patterson's 82 over 192 PA will not occur (phew), while Snider won't be allowed 166 at 75 this year. Not to mention Rivera's 81 PA at 50 (ugh).
2B should improve as Johnson hit for a 121 (vs other 2B) in his 132 PA vs the 65 in Hill's 428.

100-120 (ie: solid)
DH (101), CA (111), SS (114), 3B (117)
Many will be surprised at that 3B number but remember that Bautista had 102 PA (226 sOPS+) and Lawrie had the most PA there (171 @ 166 sOPS+). So while Nix (62) & EE (89) & McDonald (41) won't be there someone will fill in whenever Lawrie is hurt. If Lawrie does reach a 120 sOPS+ there I'll be very, very happy. SS/CA/DH should (hopefully) be the same as Escobar/JPA/EE are all sub-30 and in their primes. CA is a danger though with Mathis as the primary backup.

120+ (ie: sweet)...
RF (133) - this should improve as Bautista should get more than 116 games there this year, Thames fewer than 26 (88 sOPS+) or at least hit better when he does play there. 4 of the backups there had negative sOPS+ (covering 35 PA) while Rajai Davis had a sOPS+ of 5 (yes, a nickle) while in RF over 27 PA. That all should improve thus pushing that 133 closer to Bautista's 164 sOPS+ while in RF.

So the biggest sOPS+ improvements should be (in order) CF, 2B, LF, RF while DH/CA/SS/3B/1B should (as a group) stay stable (ie: 1B improve but 3B drop a bit without Bautista there and CA might drop unless JPA improves as Mathis is bad with the bat). Remember, this is considering replacements as well as starters. Backup in the OF shifting from Davis & crap to Ben Francisco (100 OPS+ guy who had a slg% drop last year) & Davis which helps. Backup IF shifts from McCoy & McDonald & Nix to McCoy & Omar Vizquel & Luis Valbuena which should be a wash. Backup catcher drops drastically though from Molina (career year 103 OPS+) to Jeff Mathis (50 OPS+ lifetime).

I could easily see a significant jump in offense even if Bautista & Lawrie drop significantly from where they were in 2011. As long as Bautista/Lawrie/JPA don't get significant injuries (ie: need the 60 day DL) the offense should improve.

Gerry - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 11:00 AM EST (#252435) #

There is baseball today, even though it is an intra-squad game, and there will be some form of baseball daily now for 8 months. Yippee!

John Northey - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 11:31 AM EST (#252436) #

The other issue (outside of offense) is starting rotation.
Last year (as shown in my 'how bad was 2011 rotation' article) we saw some pretty bad results. If you give 32-33 starts per rotation slot and assign based on highest ERA+ to #1, 2nd highest to #2, etc. you get...
Ace: 145 (mainly Romero)
#2: 98 (Alvarez and others)
#3: 90 (Morrow/Cecil)
#4: 82 (JoJo and others)
#5: 69 (Mills, McGowan, Drabek, etc.)

Now, I expect the 'ace' slot to drop a bit as I don't expect Romero to stay in the 140+ ERA+ range (although it would be nice). I expect Alvarez and Morrow and Cecil to all be in the 95-115 range though and if the 3 of them can do that over 80+ starts (26+ starts each) then things will drastically improve. Last year only 42 starts were done by guys with 100+ ERA+'s (as starters). Change that to 100+ and the Jays will see a massive improvement overall and it isn't hard to imagine it happening. Cecil was at 99 in 2010 and if his fitness has improved then his stats should too. Morrow has had FIP's well into the 100+ range for a couple of years and one of these years it has to happen. Alvarez has control and a lot more power than he showed last year (5.7 K/9 in majors but a fastball that can hit 100 at times). It isn't hard at all to imagine.

The pen was a mix and match last year but had key pieces in Janssen (189 ERA+), Francisco (120 ERA+), Frasor (144 ERA+), and Rzep (144 ERA+). 2 of them are gone now but instead we have Santos (130 ERA+ lifetime), Darren Oliver (150+ ERA+ for 4 straight years), and Francisco Cordero (145 ERA+ lifetime). While ERA+ isn't a good measure for relievers individually as a group it can say something and over years it can too. Oliver, Santos and Cordero are all premium relievers. Rzep/Francisco are also very good. But we basically see 2 solid guys gone for 3 better ones. Now the pen is set with a closer (Santos) setup man (Cordero) lefty (Oliver) short man who is good for setup as well (Janssen) and an ex-closer in Frasor. Add two random other pieces and it is looking better than last year.

I'd say the staff should easily do better than last years 99 ERA+ - a 105-110 range is very possible and 2008's great 122 is possible if everything falls into place. With an offense that should easily outdo 2008 & 2011's 95 OPS+ (since 1993 no Jays team has hit for a 110+ OPS+) this could be a much better team than we've seen in a long long time.

Or things could fall apart and it is 2004 again :P

Mike Green - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 11:44 AM EST (#252438) #

Can we safely assume that McGowan over JoJo is worth +1?

No. There is a modest chance that McGowan goes all Carpenter on us and is JoJo +4, but a much greater chance that he pitches less than 40 innings this year. Depth in the rotation is one of the two big issues for the club. But, the sun is shining, the thermometer reads well above 0, the ballplayers have started playing games, and the calendar page has turned, so optimism is in season.

Now that the "soft deadline" for introducing the extra wild card team in 2012 has passed, it seems as likely as not that it will not happen until 2013. If so, you want to be counting to 92 rather than 90. I guess that view is not seasonal though.

Gerry - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 01:46 PM EST (#252440) #

The highlights of the Jays intra-squad game today were a home run to CF by Rasmus; a booming double by Snider, although he also hit into a 1-6-3 DP; and Rajai Davis creating problems with his speed. Most of the pitchers seemed to pitch well. Drew Hutchison's inning was described as quick, a good sign. Rasmus hit his home run off Deck McGuire. Evan Crawford also pitched a 1-2-3 inning including K's of Bautista and Lind.

JB21 - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 02:46 PM EST (#252442) #

It's official.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AjD9d1cxb5u2Eudqpo1z8hI5nYcB?slug=ap-expandedplayoffs

TamRa - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 03:35 PM EST (#252443) #

"So nobody regresses?"

Romero and Bautista probably.

But not by a huge amount.

Deduct one win for each and you are still very close.

One of the reasons to be optimistic is that other than those two, the regression factor is highly suppressed:

1. CF, LF, 2B and 1B has very little room to get significantly worse than last year.

2. Lawrie could regress significantly and still be better than 3B last year.

3. JP is sort of one of those "he is what he is" guys. Other than HR power there's not a lot of room for regression and that's one thing he can do if he does nothing else.

that leaves Bautista, EE, and Escobar on the offense as even POSSIBLE candidates.

Pitching wise, it would be pretty difficult for a healthy McGowan to not be better than than the #5 slot last year and if he gets hurt it's hard to see his replacement really being much worse.

Alvarez also seems to have a lot of room for regression before he is worse than last year's production from the 4th best pitcher.

Cecil has already done his regression - that leaves Morrow and Romero. And of those Romero is the one who some think over-achieved.

In the bullpen, if Cordero or Frasor or Janssen regresses, is he as bad as Rauch? (for instance)

that is, the "on paper" upgrade is steep enough that regressing might still leave you better than the guy who had that job last year.

It is a valid point that my plus one here and plus one there would be whittled down by regression, but it's also true that in some cases the upgrade is easily project-able as being MORE than +1 . . . I was trying to describe a SAFE view of the potential improvement by noting how many positions seemed, on paper, to have the potential to be better.

melondough - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 04:18 PM EST (#252444) #

Sorry if this has been sent out already but you should get a big kick from watching this. It�s Arencibia imitating Tim Kurkjian�.absolutely hilarious. As much as I want to see D�Arnaud�s a Blue Jay, I think Arenciabia (like Lawrie) has an attitude that is so infectious that I would hate for Jays to one day move him (assuming of course he continues to hit). Here is the link:

http://1045theteam.com/hilarious-impression-of-espn-mlb-analyst-tim-kurkjian-video/

Anders - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 04:26 PM EST (#252445) #

These comparisons, while fun, are ultimately meaningless, at least if you are trying to predict success on a team level. They ignore injuries, which play a huge role - the Jays were pretty healthy in 2011, but if Jose Bautista blew out his rotator cuff tomorrow the team would instantly be 6 wins worse in 2012. They ignore randomness, which humans have trouble seeing anyway. Lastly, they are also often/usually based on faulty premises. To take an easy example, Brett Lawrie is going to be 4 wins better than the Jays 3B last year! Woo! Well, okay, except Jays 3B collectively posted the 6th best OPS in baseball last year, 70 points above league average for 3B (their mark was .773).

It rarely is that simple, malheureusement.

Mike Green - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 05:12 PM EST (#252446) #

The interesting thing is that if you have the current Blue Jay club pegged at 85 wins, as I do, that would make a typical range for them as 80-90. The top end of the range might very well be enough for the 2nd wild card spot. Obviously, things would look a lot more promising if the range was 83-93, which it might very well have been if things had gone differently this off-season.

As for now, a modestly better than expected performance overall from young players and beating Pythagoras by a couple of games might have the club playing meaningful games in September.

jester00 - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 05:21 PM EST (#252447) #

And if this actually was the case, one would hope (but not expect) that if we were in the running for a wildcard spot that AA would be active at the deadline to bolster our chances (by being a buyer and not a seller. Can you imagine??)

I'm actually quite excited for this season. I hope it doesn't wear off too fast.

bpoz - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 07:07 PM EST (#252450) #

IMO the only thing AA had to sell last July was parts from his pen. My guess is that most people think he was a seller in the Rasmus trade. I think that if he got the best ML ready player in Rasmus then there is a case for him being a buyer. But it is not a clear decision to me.

If he does this again because there is opportunity and IMO he seems to find opportunity, then he should consider some of the following.
1) This is his 3rd year as GM, try not to give up 3-4 wins, high 80s down to mid 80s or so. I refer to the Rasmus trade, except to be fair he was injured. If healthy he may have been worth more wins than what we lost by weakening the pen.
2) A healthy trio of Litsch, L Perez & Carlos V all kept in the pen may offset the pen's loss.
3) At the end of the year KJ, EE, Cordero, Fraser & a few others have no value to the Jays as they are FAs. trading them makes AA a definite seller IMO. Tough call !!

greenfrog - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 07:33 PM EST (#252451) #

The trade market at this year's deadline should be fascinating. Lots of teams will be in the playoff hunt, so it should be a sellers' market in some respects. But buyers will be reluctant to give up a lot of prospect talent because of the new CBA rules (ie, which will make it more challenging to restock a farm system). Right now it's possible to imagine AA as an aggressive buyer or a crafty seller - which will it be? We'll know in about 4.5 months.

Richard S.S. - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 09:32 PM EST (#252452) #

Thank You, TamRa, few people think Toronto will be a better team this season. Too many want bad things to happen so they can say "I told you so".

1. CF, LF, 2B and 1B has very little room to get significantly worse than last year.

With a healthy Adam Lind at First, whose playing time at 1B should be better managed by the Team; a happy and motivated Colby Rasmus roaming Center; a determined Kelly Johnson at Second, playing for a long-term contract; and a competent Travis Snider in Left, with a burning desire to stay; cannot be worse than the 2011 crew, that's almost totally impossible. IMO, 4-6 wins better, 85 to 87 wins.

2. Lawrie could regress significantly and still be better than 3B last year.

Even with Brett Lawrie experiencing an illogical sophmore-ish collaspe (having only played in 43 games), he will be better at 3B than the 2011 crew. IMO, 1 or 2 wins better, 86 to 89 wins.

3. JP is sort of one of those "he is what he is" guys. Other than HR power there's not a lot of room for regression and that's one thing he can do if he does nothing else.

Why can't he make the small improvements most catchers make? Why must he be worse?

"So nobody regresses?"... ...that leaves Bautista, EE, and Escobar on the offense as even POSSIBLE candidates.

With having established a consistency over the last few years, it's hard to consider a significant regression. So deduct 2-3 games, if it makes you happy.

With a predicted 79 to 81 wins for Toronto in 2012, I have lost respect for those that predict it. Why?

A full year of Brett Lawrie is worse than the 3B crew of 2011. That's utter nonsense! A full year of Colby Rasmus is worse than the CF crew of 2011. That's utter nonense. And I could go on. It means nothing this team has done since the start of last year has made it better, and that is utter nonsense.

TamRa thinks this Team can contend and be in the Post-Season. I agree.

Richard S.S. - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 10:07 PM EST (#252453) #

3) At the end of the year KJ, EE, Cordero, Fraser & a few others have no value to the Jays as they are FAs...

If Adeiny Hechavarria becomes our 2B of the future, then Kelly Johnson becomes a Free Agent. However, A.A. might sign Kelly to an extention during the season, if Adeiny is not. A.A. is hoping Edwin Encarnacion can be our DH going forward as he's expected to have a big year this season. If we get to January 2013 and some of the others are available, who knows what A.A. might do.

smcs - Friday, March 02 2012 @ 11:30 PM EST (#252454) #

A full year of Colby Rasmus is worse than the CF crew of 2011. That's utter nonense. And I could go on. It means nothing this team has done since the start of last year has made it better, and that is utter nonsense.

Just so we are all clear here, of the three guys who roamed CF with any amount of meaningful time, (Patterson, Davis and Rasmus), the one who was the worst offensively was Colby Rasmus.

We also all thought that 2010 was an anomaly for both Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, yet Lind was barely any better and Hill took a further step back. I would pencil in Lind for 25 HRs and an .800 OPS against righties and a .600 OPS against lefties. Any improvement to the club through Adam Lind would come through limiting his plate appearances against lefties, but there is no evidence that they will actually do that. I'm not going to ignore the mountain of evidence (1900 PAs) that Lind is a mediocre offensive player in favor of the relative mole hill of evidence (654 PAs in 2009) that he is great.

TamRa - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 03:20 AM EST (#252455) #

"They ignore injuries, which play a huge role - the Jays were pretty healthy in 2011, but if Jose Bautista blew out his rotator cuff tomorrow the team would instantly be 6 wins worse"

Well yeah. I've been saying about every prediction I've ever made for 8 years (or however long) - "assuming health"

How much worse would the Yankees be if they lost CC for the year? Boston lost Gonzo? Tampa lost Longoria?

that goes without saying.

---
" They ignore randomness, which humans have trouble seeing anyway."

Not entierly, I commented on my blog that it was certain SOME of the projections would be far too high, and some might well be far too low. Randomness WILL happen. But since by definition randomly much-better (Ellsbury) is just as possible as randomly much-worse (Rasmus), it washes out when it comes to the activity of making predictions/projections.
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"To take an easy example, Brett Lawrie is going to be 4 wins better than the Jays 3B last year! Woo! Well, okay, except Jays 3B collectively posted the 6th best OPS in baseball last year, 70 points above league average for 3B (their mark was .773)."

Indeed. Except that itself is a faulty premise because it INCLUDES LAWRIE.

3B without Lawrie? .705

(and that includes 81 fine AB from Jose)

There goes that whole "above league average" thing right out the window.

(not that I'm arguing Lawrie will add FOUR wins - he could maybe but I wouldn't put any money on it...if I had any money...which I don't)

TamRa - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 05:08 AM EST (#252456) #

I have now distracted myself.

Looking at the team performances by position last year, here's the best 3B (by team) in the AL last year:

.303 - .331 - .496 - .838 - 41/1/27/116

I don't think it's at all impossible Lawrie will finish better than that (apart from RBI maybe) - enough better that the 10 games or so someone else plays there won't drag it below that line.
(Plus he'll steal some bases)
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The third best AL CF line:

.301 - .341 - .462 - .803 - 44/7/18/89

Rasmus has every chance to be better than that. (You know who the top 2 are)
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Continuing the theme, Johnson should certainly be as good as the 4th best 2B line (in the AL) last year. (Sadly the top 3 are of course NY, TB, and Boston)
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You know what the AL average in LF was? .702!! If the jays collectively reach .775 it's a figure that would have ranked second in the AL last year, the bar is low here.
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Jays were 5th overall at SS, but ahead of all three of their AL East rivals (not Baltimore, but they don't count for a discussion of contention)
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The Jays were the #3 team at catcher last year (Molina hitting better than Mathis will noted)
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Obviously #1 in RF
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One goal will be to reach at least the AL average (.791) at 1B - surprisingly the Yankees were 3rd despite only getting an .812 so if Lind somehow completely rebounded he could be in the top 3
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At DH the Jays were almost exactly on league average (a hair above)and need to go from .770 to .820 to make the (last year's) top 3. OTOH, getting to second in the division wouldn't be too tough.

Looking at the AL East only, based on last year:

#1 catcher (not impossible to fall to #3)
#3 1B (Rays have added Pena of course)
#4 2B
#1 SS
#1 3B (sample size alert)
#1 RF
#5 CF (potential to be #3)
#4 LF (Tor + TB both have #1 potential here)
#3 DH (#2 potential)

It's not hard to imagine being in the top 3 in the AL in 5-6 different slots. Depending on how much the weaker bench guys drag things down.

greenfrog - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 01:33 PM EST (#252460) #

To me, the keys to the Jays contending are:

- Minimal injuries
- Lind rebounds
- Strong years from Cecil and Morrow
- One of Snider or Thames takes off, posts an 800+ OPS
- Solid year from Rasmus (doesn't have to be an All-Star)

In all likelihood, these things happening would put the team squarely in the pennant race.

grjas - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 03:27 PM EST (#252462) #

"To me, the keys to the Jays contending are:..."

I think the list is even more narrow:
. "Strong years from Cecil and Morrow"- this is the big one. It's a stretch to think any of the other SP's or minor leaguers could be strong #2 or #3. Morrow and Cecil have the potential, but must deliver
. "Minimal injuries"- yes but for certain players- ie top 3 SP's, RF, SS, 3B. I think they can survive others as they have more depth on the bench, in the pen and in the high minors

I think the line up is deep enough to over come a weak 1st base or LF (though may be not both).

Agree with the sentiment in this post that "meaningful games in September" would mean a successful year. It's certainly not a lock, but I think there is a reasonable chance for this year and an even better one for next.

Been a long time coming..so bring it on.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 03:59 PM EST (#252463) #

To me, the keys to the Jays contending are: ...

- mimimal injuries

I would consider 160+ GP and 28+ GS as minimal injuries. Everyone misses some time without going on the D.L., being young means they are more likely to stay healthy.

- Lind rebounds

I want Lind healthier, able to play 1B all year. Of course, a better average and on base percentage would be a bonus, but repeating his early 2011 for all of 2012 is more than enough.

- Strong years from Cecil and Morrow

A.A. thought enough of Morrow's improvement in 2011 to give him a long-term contract. A.A. thought enough of Cecil to call him early in the offseason to ream him a new one. I have no doubts they'll have good years.

- One of Snider or Thames takes off, posts an 800+OPS

If Snider has learned everything he was supposed to, and can consistently put it in play, he'll stay up all year. If not, we need Thames to play a somewhat better defense.

- Solid year from Rasmus (doesn't have to be an All-Star)

That should be a given, but he might be very good, giving the Team it's first postseason bid in too, tto many years.

Geoff - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 06:26 PM EST (#252465) #

Over at ESPN, Jayson Stark continues to pour love on the Jays with his latest article. The gist of it is that the Jays are poised to be regular contenders now that the playoff format has expanded; Anthopoulos is a genius and it won't be long before everyone is trembling before the Toronto juggernaut.

There is also a curious interview packed in at the top with Jose Bautista sitting down with Francona and Kurkjian. Bautista says a curious bit at the end (final ten seconds) about how Farrell helped him last year understand what pitchers opposing pitchers are trying to do to him or, "how some of those guys work".

In other news, Kurkjian is going to be the starting catcher for the Jays this year. Or something like that.

BlueJayWay - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 07:04 PM EST (#252467) #

In that vein, Rosenthal has a similar article up Blue Jays' confidence is justified: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-soaring-confidence-over-al-east-potential-030312. Tried to hyperlink but that only sporadically works on this site.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, March 03 2012 @ 08:28 PM EST (#252468) #

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-soaring-confidence-over-al-east-potential-030312 is the link you are looking for.

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