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Tim Brown/Jon Heyman reports that Prince Fielder has signed with the Tigers for $214 million over 9 years. That's just shy of $24 million a year, or about $1.2 million less than Albert Pujols received on an annual basis.

Fielder will reportedly play first base, while Miguel Cabrera will move (to DH or Left Field, presumably.)


The total dollar amount shouldn't be too surprising, although the years come as a shock. It seems like the only other serious contenders for Fielder were the Rangers and Nationals, and there were issues with both of them, so for Fielder to get so many years guaranteed is just another testament to Scott Boras' skills. Long term deals like this seem to work out rarely, although they aren't quite as bad for hitters as for pitchers. Fielder is young, at 27, which is a plus, but his large size also creates concern over how he will hold up.

So while this deal would look better if it were two years shorter, I'm gonna go out and say that in terms of dollar amount per year it's probably reasonable given the market for other first baseman. What's surprising is that the Tigers already have the best first baseman in baseball, Miguel Cabrera, as well as Victor Martinez. Martinez is out for the year, but has three years left on his 4 year, $50 million dollar deal. So the Tigers essentially now have three DH's under contract for at least the next three years, making big money (Cabrera's deal ends in four years, in 2015.)

Cabrera hasn't played the outfield since 2005 and hasn't played third base since 2008, and he was brutal  at both (he's simply bad at first.) Meanwhile UZR rates Prince as a poor first baseman (comparable to Cabrera,) and obviously his body size suggests that he will continue to diminish. Martinez essentially DH'd all last year, and when he comes back he will be 35. So essentially the Tigers are going to have to take a bath defensively somewhere; Fielder is probably less valuable to them than he would have been to several other teams as a result.

While the dollars per year may be fair, the nine years and the current makeup of the Tigers roster seem to make this a problematic signing for the Tigers. At the very least though the Tigers should walk away with the AL Central, and if they can win a World Series everything else probably won't matter as much.

Shameless Plug Alert: Listen to Dave, Thomas and I be hopelessly wrong in predicting what would happen with Fielder.
Fielder to Tigers for Lots of Money | 98 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:39 PM EST (#251069) #
This sign doesn't seem to make much sense.  I thought that would go with Damon or Matsui on a one year deal while Martinez was rehabbing.  My guess is that V-Mart will now be shopped.  I don't see him returning to Detroit with this deal completed.
Glevin - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:39 PM EST (#251070) #
Boras gets them every time. This isn't nearly as bad as the Werth contract, but it's still a ridiculous contract and there's a reason no other team was willing to go this long. The Tigers won the Central by 15 games last year and they would have won it again this year even without Fielder. Splitting Cabrera and Fielder at 1B/DH makes sense (Cabrera is definitely better defensively although he's below average. Prince is just awful.)Playing Cabrera at 3B or OF would be a mistake because he'd be awful there but also I think, prone to injury. The Tigers seem very likely to win a World Series or two over the next few years because they have such an easy path to the playoffs as well as excellent talent.
Ron - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:42 PM EST (#251071) #
I'm a little bit surprised at the number of years but this is just another example of Scott Boras being really good at his job. All Fielder has to do is to play a big part in helping the Tigers win 1 World Series to deliver on his contract. A 3/4 combo of Cabrera and Fielder might be one of the best in the history of baseball.
Hodgie - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:43 PM EST (#251072) #
What's surprising is that the Tigers already have the best first baseman in baseball...

I am guessing there is an Angel in the infield that might disagree with this assessment.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:50 PM EST (#251075) #

Not to mention a Yankee. And V-Mart -- back to Cleveland?

Question of the day for Bauxites ...

Cecil Fielder hit 319 career home runs, 245 of them with the Detroit Tigers. His estranged son Prince has hit 230 career bombs so far, and his next who-knows-how-many will be with the Tigers. Let's assume Prince will hit at least 90 dingers in Motor City -- at that money, he;d better! -- to take over the family career lead. The question is, how many does he hit AS A TIGER? Does he get to 231?

John Northey - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:52 PM EST (#251076) #
Wow - that was a surprise.

Doubt many wanted Fielder here on a 9 year deal at nearly $24 per year. That would be the 4th time someone has gotten $200+ million in a deal iirc (Cot's is down) ... A-Rod twice, Pujols and now Fielder.

I suspect due to injuries Detroit will hold off on the DH fire sale until next winter, at which time EE will be a free agent and we'll be even more confident in what Lind can/cannot do.
Glevin - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:52 PM EST (#251077) #
"The question is, how many does he hit AS A TIGER? Does he get to 231?"

It's under 26 HRs a year, so I will say yes.
smcs - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:54 PM EST (#251078) #
Jose Bautista for Miguel Cabrera. Which side says no?
Thomas - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:57 PM EST (#251079) #
Lesson of the day: Never ever underestimate Scott Boras.
Anders - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 03:59 PM EST (#251080) #

I am guessing there is an Angel in the infield that might disagree with this assessment.

Not to mention a Yankee.

Well the former case is debatable (sorry Mick, Tex isn't even in the same area code.) The only realistic candidates are Cabrera, Pujols, Votto and Gonzalez, and I think Gonzalez is just a tick behind those first three. Cabrera was the best first baseman in baseball last year, by a small but decisive margin. Given the age difference between Cabrera and Pujols I think I would take Cabrera going forward, but I would probably take Votto over either of them.

Semantics!
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:07 PM EST (#251081) #

Well, let's not focus COMPLETELY on the bats. Gonzalez can pick it, though not quite as well as Tex. Pujols is okay, Votto is okay, Fielder, orinically for his name, is pretty bad. Cabrera is historically awful in the field, though he has been better at 1B than LF or (shudder) 3B ...

Yes, semantics. Any of the five named could be a cleanup/1B for a title team, but I think Tex is more valuable than you are giving him credit for!

Gwyn - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:08 PM EST (#251082) #
This has been a really bad off-season for the baseball rumour-mongering business. There wasn't a single report I saw in a quick troll through mlbtraderumors linking Prince to Detroit.
Gwyn - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:11 PM EST (#251083) #
Mick - fangraphs fielding stats don't think very much of Tex's prowess with the glove. Over the last three years he's miles behind Gonzalez and a little back of Pujols and Votto too.
chocolatethunder - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:28 PM EST (#251084) #
Ken Rosenthal reporting Jays to sign Cordero!--pretty good signing if true
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:30 PM EST (#251085) #
Wow - that's a huge contract. It just shows how important it's going to be to obtain elite young talent and lock it up to team-friendly contracts early on.

Right now the elite AL teams look like NY, Bos, TB, LAA, Texas and Detroit (fighting for five playoff spots). The Jays are a notch below, but are on the rise.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:35 PM EST (#251087) #
Huh! The Jays are going to have a very deep 'pen (and lots of trade bait) in 2012.
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:36 PM EST (#251088) #
Looks like AA is cornering the market on veteran relievers who are likely trade-able in July - with the comp. picks now tough to obtain, I expect AA to peddle these guys come the trade deadline - smart move. Also, I like the Morrow signing, a fair contract that has upside.  
danjulien - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:39 PM EST (#251089) #
@Ken_RosenthalKen Rosenthal Source: Cordero to #BlueJays, pending physical. One year, $4.5M. Will set up for Santos. #MLB   That's a good number for him
sam - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:50 PM EST (#251092) #
Cordero's strikeout numbers are down and he may have some difficulty in the AL East. Provided they use him in the right situations, he could, along with Oliver and Santos provide a real dynamite of a backend. As well, Cordero and Oliver will likely be in demand come trade deadline time so that always helps. And it means no more Jason Frasor in the eighth inning, which is nice. And Sergio Santos will be able to learn from Cordero.

It's a pretty good situation. I have feeling AA and Bean Stringfellow are good friends. Here's to hoping he represents Joey Votto in two years.
dan gordon - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:52 PM EST (#251093) #

Cordero's a nice acquisition at that price.  He was making over $12 million a year the last 3 years, and is coming off a season where he had the 2nd best WHIP of his 13 year career.  Very impressive looking bullpen.  Would have preferred to add Oswalt to the rotation, but this is going to help.

It will be interesting to see what Detroit does with Cabrera in 2013 when Victor Martinez is back.  Playing Cabrera in the field could get ugly.  Martinez might be tough to trade coming off a missed season due to the ACL tear this winter.  AA is coming up on Sportsnet for those who want to tune in...

Chuck - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:01 PM EST (#251094) #

he had the 2nd best WHIP of his 13 year career.

I wouldn't get too excited about that. A ridiculously low .214 BABIP can be thanked for that (for his career it's been .294). For someone with control issues his whole career, his walk rate was finally under control in 2011, but at the cost of his K rate, which was not good at all.

I'm having trouble getting excited about moves like this one and the one for Frasor. That's over 8MM right there that I'd much prefer had gone to Oswalt. There's only so many high leverage reliever innings to go around. After a while you're paying guys a lot of money for middle relief that can be soaked up cheaply by guys on hand.

sam - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:07 PM EST (#251096) #
Team projection time!

1. Escobar SS
2. Johnson 2B
3. Bautista RF
4. Lind 1B
5. Lawrie 3B
6. Rasmus CF
7. Arencibia C
8. Encarnacion DH
9. Snider/Thames LF

Bench
Francisco OF
Mathis C
Vizquel SS, 2B, 3B
Davis OF

1. Romero
2. Morrow
3. Cecil
4. Alvarez
5. McGowan

1. Frasor
2. Perez
3. Janssen
4. Villanueva
5. Cordero
6. Oliver
7. Santos

Outside of remaining healthy, better outfield defense and improvement from Johnson, Lind, Rasmus, Snider/Thames. This team isn't that bad and is probably a bit more relevant in the playoff race.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:17 PM EST (#251097) #
Another reliever?  Whatever for?

Last year's adventures in the pen did not amount to much.  Napoli for Francisco. Dotel signed.  Zep, Frasor and Dotel for Rasmus.  A lot of scarce money went out the door.  Napoli delivered much more than any of the others last year in value.  Napoli and Zep (who was there before the season and was cost-controlled) have, at this point, value in the range of Rasmus. 

China fan - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:19 PM EST (#251098) #
Sam, you've forgotten about Jesse Litsch, who definitely ranks ahead of Perez in the bullpen. But I'm wondering if the Jays will decide instead to give Litsch another crack at the rotation in spring training. Since it appears that AA isn't succeeding in acquiring another starting pitcher, he might want Litsch to add depth to the rotation, in case McGowan or Cecil are shaky. This also provides another LHP (Perez) for the bullpen. So the signing of Cordero may have indirectly produced an addition to the rotation: Litsch.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:19 PM EST (#251099) #
AA did a nice job to both collect draft picks for Francisco and Rauch and dramatically overhaul the pen. Should be a big help when the SPs are going 5, 6, 7 innings only (realistically, this will happen a fair bit when Morrow, Cecil and McGowan are on the mound).

Heck, why not sign Oswalt on a one-year deal as well? That would make for a fun 2012.
Chuck - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:26 PM EST (#251100) #

Should be a big help when the SPs are going 5, 6, 7 innings only

Potentially squeezing out a long man like Litsch for one-inning relievers like Cordero and Frasor won't help much with starters getting shelled early. Having Litsch and Villaneuva on hand to rescue the likes of McGowan and Cecil would seem to make more sense to me. A pile of one-inning guys is fine to support a dependable rotation, not one as volatile as the Jays'.

greenfrog - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:34 PM EST (#251101) #
Santos
Cordero
Oliver
Frasor
Janssen
Carlos V
Perez

Chuck: I don't see it as an issue. Villanueva and Perez can go multiple innings, as can (to a lesser extent) Janssen and Frasor. To me, Litsch looks like the 7th guy in the 'pen or someone to stash in AAA, depending on the performance and health of your pitching staff. He's really not someone who is going to help your team a whole lot either way - just an OK guy who is on one day, off the next.
Sal - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:59 PM EST (#251104) #
So, I remember a while ago some people getting on AA's throat for not signing Fielder. Do they still blame him?
China fan - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 06:08 PM EST (#251105) #
Here's Anthopoulos, just 5 hours before signing Cordero: "Right now, I wouldn't expect us to do anything else."

So, maybe there are further acquisitions that could still happen too. His denials don't seem very definitive.
Anders - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 06:16 PM EST (#251107) #
Here's Anthopoulos, just 5 hours before signing Cordero: "Right now, I wouldn't expect us to do anything else."

So, maybe there are further acquisitions that could still happen too. His denials don't seem very definitive.

"I wouldn't expect us to do anything else. Maybe adding a reliever is probably the only thing I think we have a chance at doing." -AA

Get real.

https://twitter.com/#!/gregorMLB/status/161862334615265280

China fan - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 06:58 PM EST (#251112) #
So, Anders, you're prepared to say that AA is totally done for the off-season? No chance of anything further? I'm not sure if we can be certain of that. A year ago, he said he was done -- and then he traded Wells. This year he pooh-poohed the free agent market -- and then spent $9 miLlion on Oliver and Codero. A couple weeks ago, he said that the bullpen was finished -- and it wasn't. I think AA is always casting around for the next move, and his public statements are about as reliable as those of Detroit's GM when he said there was no possibility of giving a long-term contract to Fielder -- just 5 days ago.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 06:59 PM EST (#251113) #
Holy guacamole.  Can't believe Fielder got 9 years.  I think everyone rational should be fine with the Jays not being in on this.

In related news, I'm never underestimating Scott Boras again.

ayjackson - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 07:02 PM EST (#251114) #

So, Anders, you're prepared to say that AA is totally done for the off-season?

I think all Anders is saying is that you left out the most revealing part of the quote. The part that foreshadowed the acquisition.

China fan - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 07:15 PM EST (#251115) #
Even AA's comment about a possible reliever was couched as a "maybe." He doesn't actually foreshadow very much in a clear or reliable way. A couple months ago, he said he was hunting for a "big bat and a starting pitcher." The truth is, he's always got about 10 irons in the fire, and we can't really expect any definitive hints of his true intentions. I don't think he is finished with his tinkering, no matter what he says or doesn't say.
hypobole - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 08:02 PM EST (#251120) #
Ah, the joy of having an 82 yr old billionaire owner who's also a fan.

Can't criticize Ilich for having Dombrowski make this deal happen.

Ilich is probably figuring there's a good chance he won't even be around by the time Prince's contract gets ugly.
bpoz - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 08:32 PM EST (#251121) #
Yup, no doubt AA is a mystery man. IMO he has to talk to the media when a transaction occurs. Maybe he did not talk after Oliver & Fraser, I can not remember. His style is to be secretive. His multiple irons in the fire got us Santos. The other irons, we don't know, probably nothing happened.

With 29 other teams, whom he says he always talks to, he probably has a lot going.

IMO part of his style is to go after elite players. They must be hard to get, hopefully Santos qualifies.
TamRa - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 03:10 AM EST (#251140) #
"Sam, you've forgotten about Jesse Litsch, who definitely ranks ahead of Perez in the bullpen. But I'm wondering if the Jays will decide instead to give Litsch another crack at the rotation in spring training. Since it appears that AA isn't succeeding in acquiring another starting pitcher, he might want Litsch to add depth to the rotation, in case McGowan or Cecil are shaky. This also provides another LHP (Perez) for the bullpen. So the signing of Cordero may have indirectly produced an addition to the rotation: Litsch."
-----
Thing is, Perez is out of options and Listch isn't.

That said, I think it's reasonably likely they will work both Litsch and Carreno as starters in ST for the first purpose of being a line of defense if McGowan/Drabek don't produce a #5 starter they like.

BUT

IMO, if they get to the last week of March and their top 5 or 6 guys are seemingly set, Litsch will be traded (assuming the scouts like what they see) so a team like San Diego or Pittsburgh or some such.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 11:05 AM EST (#251148) #
Given the enormity of Fielder's contract, I'm starting to wonder whether E-Jax (another Boras client) is going to sign for something like 6 years/$90M. Boras probably has a large binder irrefutably demonstrating that Jackson is the last power arm likely to hit FA until 2017.
sam - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 12:29 PM EST (#251156) #
Thanks China Fan for the comment. I was thinking along those lines as well. I think there's a trade in the offing here. I know depth is a good thing, but for me this team has too many mediocre players who come injuries will be blocking prospects from playing. I've all but given up on Litsch and I'd much rather see the promotion of Diaz or Hech, or Snider/Thames before seeing Luis Valbuena or Mike McCoy or Ben Francisco or even Aaron Laffey play. The Jays need to find playing time at the ML level this year for guys like Chad Beck, Joel Carreno, Thames/Snider, Hech, Diaz, Drabek, Farina, Magnuson, Farquhar, Mastroianni. For me these guys are better replacement players than the options currently pencilled in as replacement players.
sam - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 12:45 PM EST (#251157) #
Luis Perez did a decent job on LH hitters last year. Considering how LH heavy the division is and the need to get guys out in the 6th and 7th inning, I think Perez has a good chance of breaking camp.

One of the things the Jays probably learned from the World Series is you can stretch out talent by micro-managing and placing relievers in the right situation. I'm sure Farrell envisions a game against the Red Sox or Rays in which, Brandon Morrow gives you 6 innings of three run ball and turns over the ball to the bullpen and in the seventh and Janssen/Frasor faces Jacoby Ellsbury and Pedroia, and Perez faces Adrian Gonzalez. The eighth Francisco Cordero faces Youkilis and Oliver faces Papi and Saltamacchia. Then Santos blows away the ninth. Those are high percentage situations for the Jays. It might lead to really long games, but it'll probably yield a few more wins than last year.

Even against the Rays or Yankees. Seventh, Frasor faces Jeter, Oliver faces Granderson and Cano. The eighth Cordero faces ARod, Tex, and Swisher. And Santos blows away Martin, Gardiner, and whoever.

The backend will match up well this year. Janssen and Vilanueva give you quality middle innings. It looks good.
92-93 - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 12:55 PM EST (#251158) #
I don't know why anybody would have given up on Litsch. His numbers as a reliever in 2011 were very good, and his SP numbers for the AL East weren't all that bad either. If the Jays weren't so busy wasting 20 starts on JoJo Reyes we might still be thinking of Jesse Litsch as a long term back end starter. If I were an NL GM I would have come calling a while ago.
Mike Green - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 01:52 PM EST (#251162) #
Carlos Villanueva and Jesse Litsch are overqualified to be 6th and 7th relievers in a pen.  Personally, I think there's a pretty good chance that both outperform Cordero in 2012. 
MatO - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:05 PM EST (#251165) #

I don't understand the Cordero or Frasor acquistions unless AA thinks lightning will strike twice in this summer and he can flip them for something really useful.  Griffin suggests Cordero is a back-up plan in case Santos can't handle the job.  If you think that Santos can't handle the job then you don't give up Molina for him.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:09 PM EST (#251167) #
I agree on all counts.  I didn't really understand the Frasor acquisition unless the club was intending to compete.  It now is pretty clear that they are not.
MatO - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:43 PM EST (#251169) #
I caught the last minute or so of AA on with McCown last night.  It sounded like AA was explaining how he got the "upper 80's" payroll but I didn't catch the full explanation.  He then admitted that the major league payroll would be about $80M which makes sense after the signing of Cordero. 
hypobole - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:44 PM EST (#251170) #
AA's offseason moves are a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. :)
Maybe after graduating 5 rookies last year, the Jays are switching to the "go slow" Tampa Bay model.

MatO, although Griffin has about the same credibility as a "UFO expert" on Ancient Aliens, Cordero could be a temporary closer solution. Although the Jays obviously believe Santos can handle the closer role, many seemingly good relievers have crapped out in the past and there is always the chance of injury.
85bluejay - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 04:42 PM EST (#251177) #
What AA said was that you have to include the salaries of all the players on the 40 man roster (not just the 25 man active roster) plus taking into account the extra cost of players coming up to substitute for injuries (paid ML salary)  - all adds up to the high 80's rather than what fans get just by adding the contracts of players on the active roster. 
ayjackson - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 06:27 PM EST (#251178) #
Seriously, AA?  That's about 20 man-seasons of injury calllups.
Anders - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 09:28 AM EST (#251200) #
I agree on all counts.  I didn't really understand the Frasor acquisition unless the club was intending to compete.  It now is pretty clear that they are not.

Well in a certain sense it doesn't really cost the Jays anything other than money - the $4.1 million more they have to pay Cordero than someone from the minors. It doesn't seem like the team was going to spend it otherwise. Although one could make the argument that it doesn't really help them either...
Mike Green - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 10:29 AM EST (#251204) #
The Frasor and Cordero acquisition money could have been used on a starting pitcher, which the club actually needs from  both performance and development perspectives. 
John Northey - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 10:33 AM EST (#251206) #
Or Frasor & Cordero could be used to acquire a quality talent mid-season as they've been doing for a couple of years with older spare parts that we all went 'why did the Jays get him' at the time of signing.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 11:18 AM EST (#251208) #
Yeah, I know.  If AA is talking to Pat Gillick and we are pretending that this is 1982 rather than 1983, perhaps there is a single A first baseman down in some farm system who might help the club the way that Fred McGriff did. 

AA is acting as though 2012 and 2013 will not be competitive years.  It's a shame after the hope engendered by the miraculous disposition of the Vernon Wells contract. 


bpoz - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 12:29 PM EST (#251211) #
I suppose some people think our current projected opening day rotation is not strong enough to make us contenders in 2012. The rotation is a huge part of any team. The offense IMO even if healthy has a large performance range. It could look very good if EE & Lind or others do very well. Defense is improved.

So IMO there are too many unknowns that can go wrong. But the opposite is also true. I just looked at our Inter league schedule, I only see the Mets as non contenders.

So right now I do not feel optimistic about our chances. Last year inter league was nice & easy.
uglyone - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 01:10 PM EST (#251213) #
"I agree on all counts. I didn't really understand the Frasor acquisition unless the club was intending to compete. It now is pretty clear that they are not."

I don't think they see it nearly as black and white as you do.

I think they like the roster they have, they like the young talent they've accumulated at every single position, and they think that this group might come together fairly soon.

Just because they're not quite ready to gamble on this current squad with $200m upgrades doesn't mean they don't think they can compete at all.

I also think they like the young talent enough at pretty much every position and SP slot that they'd rather let them play than acquire a middling free agent, even if that free agent might be a moderate upgrade.

There is one area where they'd rather not rely on the young talent - and that's in the bullpen. Both because of a belief (not saying it's a good belief) that vets in the 'pen can stabilize a young pitching staff, and because they don't want to stick young SP talent straight into a bullpen role.

Overall, they've kept their options wide open - they think they have a solid all-around young talent base, they think they have a bunch of exciting prospect talent on the verge, and they've spent some money to shore up the one area where they don't want to rely on young talent too much (the 'pen).

So if things do come together this year for this young core, and we see overall improvement from the likes of Rasmus/Snider/Thames/JPA/Cecil/Morrow/Drabek, and then maybe a breakthrough or two from the likes of Lawrie or Alvarez....then they've made sure that the bullpen is there to back them up, and that they have the money and flexibility to make some impact in-season additions.

If things don't come together for the young core this year, and they struggle overall and have no real breakouts, then all the short-term veteran contracts become quality trade bait, and they aren't overcommitted to any mid-or-huge salaried contracts or payroll.

I know as fans we sometimes hate the middle-ground - we for some reason crave a clear "direction" - i.e. either balls to the wall CONTENDING or balls to the wall REBUILDING - but I don't really agree with that kind of black and white philosophy, and I don't think AA does either.

He'll continue to add talent and value to his roster - and continue shoring up weak spots as needed, while maintaing roster flexibility - and continue to give his young core a chance to come together and show that they're a core that deserves some big money additions.

While I still think adding a guy like Fielder was a rare opportunity, I don't think much of the prices paid for any of the big name free agents or traded players...and I definitely wasn't interested in getting middling free agents or vets to block some of the younger talent from getting a chance.
Spifficus - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 01:57 PM EST (#251214) #
Uglyone, my thoughts on 2012 pretty much echo that - this is the year for the core to either come together on its own, or expose weaknesses that need to be addressed (or, as is often the case, a bit of both). Additionally, this year will have the added benefit of giving the high upside arms in the low minors to develop, whether to mature into tantalizing trade chips or to must-keep prospects. This will help make AA's job easier when it comes to filling holes at the major league level.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 02:11 PM EST (#251216) #
There is one area where they'd rather not rely on the young talent - and that's in the bullpen. Both because of a belief (not saying it's a good belief) that vets in the 'pen can stabilize a young pitching staff, and because they don't want to stick young SP talent straight into a bullpen role.

If AA honestly believes that one cannot rely on young talent for the #6 and #7 slot in your bullpen (as opposed to the rotation, the outfield, the middle infield, your catcher or whatever), that reflects very badly on him.  It may indeed be that he has a "bullpen fetish" which impairs his judgment in that regard.  I think it is more likely that (as John Northey suggests) he sees the team outside the core, for the time being, as a series of trading assets, and the acquisitions are geared at accumulating perceived asset value rather than actually building a winning club. 
Anders - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 02:15 PM EST (#251217) #
The Frasor and Cordero acquisition money could have been used on a starting pitcher, which the club actually needs from  both performance and development perspectives.

I agree, although the list of guys available at this point is pretty abysmal. Oswalt and Jackson are the only two that stand out, and obviously we missed out on Yu (and Wilson.) I don't think Mark Buehrle would have made sense for the Jays.

I would take Kuroda at $10/1 in a heartbeat.
85bluejay - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 02:28 PM EST (#251220) #
The problem is that I don't see Oswalt/Jackson/Kuroda wanting to come here on a 1 year deal - pitching in a hitter's park, facing the Yankees/Red Sox and playing for a team not expected to contend is not a great way to build your resume and try for a multiyear contract next year. From the Jays perspective, I rather find out about our young pitchers rather than have those guys for 1 year .So, unless we were going to offer multiyear contracts (& I don't see Boras settling for a 3 yr deal for Jackson) , I not upset about missing out. 
uglyone - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 02:50 PM EST (#251221) #
"If AA honestly believes that one cannot rely on young talent for the #6 and #7 slot in your bullpen (as opposed to the rotation, the outfield, the middle infield, your catcher or whatever), that reflects very badly on him."

well, as of now, he is relying on that young talent for the #7 #8 slots. is there really all that much difference? especially when guys like Litsch and Carreno might be more useful as SP insurance this year?
Hodgie - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 03:58 PM EST (#251226) #
the acquisitions are geared at accumulating perceived asset value rather than actually building a winning club.

Mike, I could be wrong but there seems to be the assumption that Anthopoulos preferred this course of action rather than circumstances dictating said course. Depending on how much value you place in the reports, the Jays were involved in Latos, Gonzalez and Darvish which seems to indicate the preference was to bolster the rotation first and foremost. We know how those pursuits ended. Wilson was never an option and it would not surprise me in the least to learn that any other free agent acquisitions that may have peaked Anthopoulos' interest were not interested in coming to Toronto.

It could be that I am guilty of too many assumptions, but to me it appears that Anthopoulos changed course and decided to find value where he could. I just don't see acquiring trade-able assets and building a winning club as mutually exclusive and I do believe that the acquisitions do make the club better although I could be shown to be wrong there as well.

Shane - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:06 PM EST (#251229) #

"The Frasor and Cordero acquisition money could have been used on a starting pitcher, which the club actually needs from  both performance and development perspectives."

As Uglyone is broaching: Mike, are you able to agree that you and the FO have different views on how to "compete" this year? Because it's pretty obvious I think, that they've not made the moves you'd like, therefore, they're not trying to compete.

This comment is completely unfounded or worse: "AA is acting as though 2012 and 2013 will not be competitive years." For the first time in the 9-10 years of reading your stuff here, you sound like you should be posting over at DJF. You're disappointed yes, but come on bud.

Chuck - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:08 PM EST (#251230) #
It would be nice to enjoy a level of excitement over an acquisition beyond what he might fetch in a trade in June.
uglyone - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:13 PM EST (#251232) #
I know many fans of other teams that would have enjoyed having their team sign Cordero as their closer, nevermind as a setup guy.

China fan - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:25 PM EST (#251234) #
"AA is acting as though 2012 and 2013 will not be competitive years."

I don't agree with this at all. Farrell, in fact, has explicitly said the opposite. I see two more likely scenarios: 1) AA is still trying to acquire the starting pitcher and big bat that he has specifically mentioned for the past two or three months, even if he expects that he can't acquire them until July when their price is more palatable; 2) AA has a more optimistic assessment of his young assets that the casual fan might have. He believes that Hutchinson and McGuire are close to the majors; he believes that Lind can produce at the same level that he did in the first half of 2011; he expects substantial improvements at CF and 2B and 3B in 2012; he thinks Snider and Thames will improve; he thinks Cecil and Morrow will get stronger. Even if half of those things materialize, the Jays will be moving much closer to contention in 2012, and the final pieces can be added in July or next off-season.

My own view is that AA should still be trying to acquire an Oswalt or Jackson or Floyd or similar starter, but I also respect the possibility that AA is expecting major progress this year and plans to wait patiently until July or next off-season to seek the final pieces of the puzzle.
MatO - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:27 PM EST (#251236) #
I don't mind the Cordero deal too much because it only cost money.  I don't get why you need Frasor then, when you already have Janssen. You trade two pitchers for him who may not be top prospects today but those were two young live arms given up for something you don't need.
uglyone - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:28 PM EST (#251237) #
"The Frasor and Cordero acquisition money could have been used on a starting pitcher, which the club actually needs from both performance and development perspectives"

Not so sure.

I think all 5 of Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, and McGowan are at a point where we want to see how they fare as starters.

If we were adding a frontline starter, I'd be all for it no doubt, but I'm not really eager to see any of those guys blocked right now by some backend starter or injury-riddled mid-rotation vet.

Meanwhile signing some quality relievers to push guys like Perez/Carreno/Litsch into injury fill-in roles (which will obviously be needed) doesn't really matter much, IMO.

With the level of the talent through this roster, I'm kind of leaning towards the belief that the only kind of talent I'd want to ante up big money or trade packages for are frontline performances, not middling vets.

And let's be honest here, the guys we added to our 'pen this offseason were frontline relievers last year, not just middling vets:

S.Santos: 63.1ip, 30/36svs, 13.1k/9, 3.2k/bb, 1.11whip, 3.55era, 2.98fip, 2.69xfip
F.Cordero: 69.2ip, 37/43svs, 5.4k/9, 1.9k/bb, 1.02whip, 2.45era, 4.02fip, 4.14xfip
D.Oliver: 51.0ip, 16hld, 7.8k/9, 4.0k/bb, 1.14whip, 2.20era, 2.77fip, 3.24xfip
J.Frasor: 60.0ip, 14hld, 8.6k/9, 2.2k/bb, 1.40whip, 3.60era, 4.09fip, 4.04xfip
Mike Green - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:42 PM EST (#251241) #
Shane, I believe that the view that the club is not attempting to compete in 2012 is widely held here.  I thought that was the view expressed in the podcast, but my hearing may be poor. As for 2013,  that is definitely an impression rather than anything concrete.  The impression is based on my understanding that "high-upside starting pitching talent" is viewed by the organization as a necessity for competing, that the organization perceives that the high-upside starting pitching talent cannot be reasonably purchased, and that the organization perceives that high-upside starting pitching talent is present in the organization but at the lower levels and will not likely be available until later.  My impression may be entirely wrong. 
John Northey - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:55 PM EST (#251243) #
To me the goal at this point is to get top flight talent or to see what talent is here. The pen, outside of Santos, is 'just visiting' and generally you can rebuild a pen in a single offseason (see this past one - 4 new guys out of 7 slots at least) quite easily if you are a good GM. Heck, St Louis did it mid-season last year.

Meanwhile I am in the boat of wanting to see if McGowan & Cecil can make it but I would like a bit more of a backup than hoping one or more kids can have a breakthrough ala Alvarez last year. Richmond and the like are useful for filling a pen slot for a few weeks but I'd rather not give them more than one or two starts if at all possible. Thus the desire to see an injury rehab guy in AAA.
China fan - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:56 PM EST (#251244) #
"I think all 5 of Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, and McGowan are at a point where we want to see how they fare as starters."

Yes, this is largely true (especially for Alvarez and Cecil) but the problem is McGowan, who has a high risk of health issues and is simply not capable of pitching 180 innings in 2012 anyway because of his injuries and rehab over the past three seasons. Nobody can seriously count on McGowan for a full season in the rotation.

So then who would replace him, for half a season anyway? And who would replace Alvarez or Cecil if they suffer a setback? I'm completely certain that Anthopoulos has been thinking a lot about this. I suspect he is looking at three options: 1) an existing roster player such as Litsch, Laffey or Villanueva (which helps to explain why AA acquired so many relievers in the off-season; the deeper bullpen gives him more flexibility on what to do with Litsch and Villanueva, both of whom will be stretched out in spring training); 2) a young prospect such as Hutchinson or McGuire or Carreno who could see the majors by July or August; 3) a potential acquisition such as Oswalt or Floyd. I'm sure that Anthopoulos is looking at all of these options.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 05:24 PM EST (#251246) #
Hodgie, I agree that circumstances played an important role in Anthopoulos' decisions this off-season.  The most important circumstances were the payroll parameters given to him, as compared with the payroll parameters for other clubs.  I am quite sure that he would have loved to have Yu Darvish if the payroll parameters permitted (Peter Piper alert).  The choice though to spend very limited payroll dollars on all those relievers rather than a lesser starter than Darvish was, it seems to me, his. 

FWIW, if I were handing out grades for the off-season, Rogers would get a D- or an F, while Anthopoulos would get a C.  I'm a generous marker. 

Shane - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 06:13 PM EST (#251248) #
Outside of starting pitching they are making moves to be competitive while building. They didn't shy away from bringing back K. Johnson. The bullpen moves are numerous, while seemingly they like what they have in the starting rotation more than what could be brought in from elsewhere after all the core piece hunting (e.g. Latos) bore no fruit. Obviously the starting pitching situation is being laid out as a wait-and-see developmental situation, but so are the situations with Rasmus, Thames/Snider, Lawire.

I don't see building towards something, and without knowing how this season will go, is proving they're not trying to compete or be competitive. Because if they're not trying to be competitive, and see where another years development takes them, what the heck was the point of building that bullpen at those financial costs? Lets not fear-cast on '13, we don't know yet if Anthopoulos is locked on building an entirely home-grown rotation. Which yes, would auger for potentially years of patience.
TamRa - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 10:48 PM EST (#251254) #
"Yes, this is largely true (especially for Alvarez and Cecil) but the problem is McGowan, who has a high risk of health issues and is simply not capable of pitching 180 innings in 2012 anyway because of his injuries and rehab over the past three seasons. Nobody can seriously count on McGowan for a full season in the rotation."

Well Farrell has already said as much, but I don't think I'll assume he gets hurt, simply that he seems likely to run out of gas at some point.

"So then who would replace him, for half a season anyway? And who would replace Alvarez or Cecil if they suffer a setback?"

1. Drabek
2. Hutchson (whom AA is all but saying will pitch in the majors this year)
3. Carreno - earned a look
4. Villianueva - did more than wnat might have been expected last year
5. Listch - if he's still here
6. Perez - would be a stretch but he's there
7. McGuire - AA said at one pointthat all four (now 3) of the high profile guys at NH might be major league ready this year
8. Jenkins - low expectations but how likely is it to get this far down the list?
9. Laffey - let's hope it doesn't come to this.


that's a plenty sufficient safety net. and in the case of Drabek, he NEEDS to have another major league shot this year.
China fan - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 10:28 AM EST (#251261) #
TamRa, I agree with your point about the depth in the Jays system, but my point is that none of them are sure shots. That's why it would make sense to acquire another veteran -- not a fringy guy, we have enough of those, and enough bad experiences in the past, but someone with a consistent record in the majors. Drabek, for example, is your top choice for depth, yet he is as unpredictable as anyone in the system. He pitched well at AA but hasn't managed to pitch well in the majors or at AAA. I would argue that he should NOT be promoted to the majors in 2012 if he can't establish himself strongly in spring training or at Las Vegas. He can't be handed a major-league job just because he has oodles of "potential" and good stuff. The Jays tried that in 2011, and it didn't work. He has to regain his confidence with a few good weeks (or months) in spring training or the minors. If he can do that, yes, give him another shot. If he can't, he should stay down on the farm for another year.
John Northey - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 11:54 AM EST (#251263) #
My list of backups is a bit different and depends on time frame...

Long term...
1. Listch - experienced and decent (I'd expect a 95 ERA+ would be reasonable which is average for starters)
2. Drabek, Hutchson, Carreno, McGuire, Jenkins - whoever is hot in the minors and looks ready

Short term (15 day DL, spot start)...
1. Villianueva - will be in the bigs already, probably get 3-5 IP from him first start
2. Listch - probably will be in AAA starting every 5th day, so will depend on timing
3. Perez - see Villianueva, depending on if he is kept around
4. Other vet arm - you don't waste a kids option on a spot start unless you are building value for future trades so I'd expect a Scott Richmond type here if the above 3 don't make sense
5. Kid who is hot - to build some value, break into majors but only if the Jays expect to call up again later in the year as you hate to waste options just for a single start or two.

The big thing is how the kids develop. Odds are decent that one or more will be pounding on the door this year at some point (too many B+ prospects in AA already to not have one or more do well) and predicting who is a total crapshoot as who knew Romero was about to become who he is pre-2009 (4+ BB/9 in AA/AAA in '08 and 5+ in '07)?

Spring will be very telling. Not from stats so much as from how the kids look to the front office/coaches/scouting staff. I'm betting someone will blow their minds and force the issue sooner rather than later. Still, for mid-season injury I'd put Listch as the most likely to get the call just due to experience.
uglyone - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 12:58 PM EST (#251268) #
If we did sign one of these mediocre/older/injury risk mid-to-back of the rotation guys, which of our current starting 5 gets the shaft to start the year, and has to wait for an injury to get a chance?

McGowan? Alvarez? cecil?
China fan - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 01:14 PM EST (#251270) #
The easy answer is: whichever of the current 5 starting pitchers has a poor performance in spring training, or gets injured. And judging by past history, there's a very high probably that one of the 5 will do so. In most of the recent years, at least one of the top 5 pitchers has been on the DL list to start the season, or has a disappointing performance in spring training.

So it's not the pitcher who'd be "shafted" -- it's the team and the fans that would be "shafted" if we have to struggle through a couple months of a Jo Jo Reyes or a Dana Eveland.

And really, to count on McGowan or Alvarez as a solid reliable starter for every month of 2012 is very optimistic. Of course I hope that every pitcher has a strong spring and creates a problem of surplus, but historically it's unlikely.
uglyone - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 03:27 PM EST (#251277) #
Is there a pitcher we'd be signing that we could count on to be "reliable every month of 2012"?
uglyone - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 03:28 PM EST (#251278) #
and what if it's the new guy that struggles in spring training?
John Northey - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 04:23 PM EST (#251280) #
It is called 'playing the odds'. If there is a high likelihood of one of the back 3 getting hurt/ineffective then it is logical to spend some money on a backup plan.

However, right now we have a mediocre back end of rotation guy who is slotted for the pen in Litsch while Villanuava and Perez have both started with mediocre to poor (but livable) results.

Signing an injured guy who is likely to come back at some point in the year with lots of raw skill is a good idea as it is cheap and odds are will not use up a slot in April when you are sorting out the current rotation and if they do then they just force the others to do better if they want to keep their job.

Signing a $7-10 million mediocre pitcher, on the other hand, is a very poor idea as the team already has Litsch and many others who can be serviceable. If the Jays were on the edge of winning (ie: had cracked 90 wins last year) then I'd see an advantage in the mediocre vet (sets a basement on what to expect from your 5 hole in the rotation). Since the Jays are in 'figure out which kid is good' mode it makes more sense to toss the kids who are ready out and see if Litsch or one of the others can fill in until more kids are ready around July/August.
Hodgie - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 04:32 PM EST (#251282) #
Since there is some on-going discussions about the rotation, I thought I would provide a link to a Fangraphs article that delves into Morrow's pitch selection with men on base. Not exhaustive but interesting none-the-less. You can read the article here.
Anders - Friday, January 27 2012 @ 04:57 PM EST (#251283) #
The Jays starting pitching is shaping up to be anywhere from poor to bad at this point - their staff  had the fourth worst FIP in baseball last year (6th worst ERA,) so it's not exactly like their the 70s Orioles here. 12 guys started games, and 8 players started at least 8 games (2010 was similar.)

The only player amongst about the 5 or 6 competing for spots 3-5 in the rotation that I think could reasonably be described as "promising" at this point is Henderson Alvarez. I like Jesse Litsch, and I wouldn't mind him starting at all, but I think at this point the book is pretty out on him - it's not like we need to see him start to see what he's capable of. Ditto Villanueva. Brett Cecil has lost 1.5 miles per hour off his fastball and has an era over 4.5 in almost 400 career innings. At this point I think his future is in the bullpen. Dustin McGowan it would be nice to see, but again, he's thrown about 800 professional pitches in the last 3 years and it seems unlikely to pitch out a full season. I wouldn't give up on Kyle Drabek, but he's not going to be starting in the majors anytime soon. Of the Jays pitching prospects none are likely to break camp (unless  they fast track Deck McGuire,) and pretty much none of them have thrown more than a handful of innings in AA or above.

Toronto will be lucky not to finish in the bottom third in the Majors in regards to starting pitching this year. I don't think it would hurt to have Edwin Jackson at $10 million for the year. Toronto's hitters figure to be a slightly above average group with a pretty wide possible array of outcomes, and the pen looks good. I'm not saying that they are going to be competitive, but signing another quality starter wouldn't significantly detract from "building" and would put the team on the cusp of contention I think.


Mick Doherty - Saturday, January 28 2012 @ 12:50 AM EST (#251289) #

on the cusp of contention I think.

Posh-posh, Mr. Starry-eyed Rose-coloured glasses!

On their best day,the Jays are going to be the sixth-best team in the American League amd third in their own division (fourth if Tampa does better than I expect). Add in Detroit, Texas and LA and what is the path the Jays take to contending? For the division title? That may have to happen, as the Wild Card could well come out of the two fearsome teams at the top of the West this year. For the division? In perfect Jay-world., Tampa doesn't contend (probable), Boston falls apart (possible, though they could always drop $50M at the trade deadline) and the Yankee rotation regresses because, uh, they miss Jorge Posada?

I just don't see a way they contend. I think they may be Very Good, and Competitive and all those buzzwords, and still at best, win 85 games (which would be a LOT and get some manager of the yeaer votes for Farrell) and finish tied for third in a division that has only one playoff team for the first time in God's memory ...

TamRa - Saturday, January 28 2012 @ 04:15 AM EST (#251293) #
I think there's a real chance (immesurable because there are too many variables) that Boston implodes - more so than that Tampa fades, IMO.

I thin if everything goes right for the Jays and a moderate amount of things go wrong for Boston and TB then the three could well be involved in a battle for 2nd place in the division and the winner of that battle would have about 92 wins.

That is, at the end of the season you might have the three with 92, 90, and 88 wins in any order. i'll concede the jays are third in that group, but a close enough third that i can envision a reasonable scenario in which the spend the last six weeks of the season within 4 or 5 games of leading that group.

That's basically where TB and Boston finished last year and TB has basically held stead while Boston is arguably worse. thus it remains to ask - can the Blue Jays improve by 7ish wins or more to get into that race this year?

I think they can, and not in a "perfect world" fantasy but in realistic terms.

My projection for next year is 88 wins (+/-3 of course)

of course, second place might still be 8-10 games out.
---------------------
I think that Texas will be a threat to win 100 as well and the Angels should easily get into the mid-90's
---------------------
I'm not as impressed with Detroit, though I think it's easy to see hem winning the division by deafult. i think they will be in reality an 88-90 win team who actually wins 94 or so because they are in that division.

so if there are two wild cards, the Angels would be the clear front runner for the first one (though not mathematically in there until after Labor Day) and Boston and TB will be the clear obvious contenders for the second one....and the question before the house is - can the Blue jays at least draw near enough to those two to be considered a contender (isn't that traditionally considered "within five games in September"?)

I say yes. but they are the underdog.
TamRa - Saturday, January 28 2012 @ 04:24 AM EST (#251294) #
all this talk of adding a guy, and i'm wondering what happens if the projected five come out of ST solid and Drabek does too.

to me we are already a leg up on "what if something goes wrong"

Beyond that, right now there's no major league job for jesse Litsch, and there are a lot of #5 starters way worse than Listch (who'd be there only temporary anyway)

right now if everyone were healthy we'd end up wasting Listch in Las Vegas or trading him.

So we are 2 steps ahead of "what if bad things happen"

Then there's Villianueva who did just fine last year (albeit faded some and some will argue "the league figured him out") - as a stopgap he's fine.

if we got that deep into trouble, clearly we're in trouble - but the latter two only have to keep a spot warn until Hutchson is a bit more polished (you can tell Alex is dying to get him up to Toronto) and most reviews of McGuire say he has little growing left to do in the minors (Goldstien most recently)

I don't think this is a year when we are going to see any Dana Eveland or Jo-Jo Reyes experiments (albeit, i do occasionally wish Aaron Laffey were elsewhere just to be safe.

The only guy left out there I'd gamble on is Harden. And in a twisted way, that's only because I assume he will get hurt before the break and thus make way for a kid.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 28 2012 @ 10:09 AM EST (#251296) #
The Jays should have tolerable options to fill in the #5 slot if necessary, although the rotation could get thin if one or two SPs get injured. However, it's really the front of the rotation that needs addressing, as the Jays currently have Romero/Morrow/Cecil/Alvarez, while the competition will be running out:

NY: CC/Pineda/Nova/Kuroda
Bos: Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Bard (possibly Oswalt or Jackson as eventual #4?)
TB: Price/Shields/Moore/Hellickson
Tex: Lewis/Darvish/Feliz/Holland (or maybe Harrison)
LAA: Weaver/Haren/Wilson/Santana

It would be fantastic if Morrow got untracked in 2012 - that would go a long way towards solidifying the Jays' rotation.
bpoz - Saturday, January 28 2012 @ 10:39 AM EST (#251297) #
TamRa & others, how would the schedule play into your forecasts. Texas & LAA will go head to head with Oakland & Seattle more often than the Jays & TB, NYY & Boston. IMO advantage Texas & LAA.
Also the Jay's interleague opponents seem strong on paper. No Pittsburgh & Houston to beat up in this year. OR get beaten up by.
Thomas - Saturday, January 28 2012 @ 11:53 AM EST (#251299) #
all this talk of adding a guy, and i'm wondering what happens if the projected five come out of ST solid and Drabek does too.

Most reasonable observers would peg the odds of that happening at far less than the odds that one of those five either is injured or underperforms and Drabek continues to be the Drabek of 2011.

Chuck - Saturday, January 28 2012 @ 01:57 PM EST (#251303) #

The Jays should have tolerable options to fill in the #5 slot if necessary

I'd say that slots #3 to #5 are all huge question marks, let alone just #5. Cecil is no lock to rebound. Alvarez is very young. McGowan is defying the odds simply still being in professional baseball. As for the #2 slot, Morrow of course has the tools, but has yes to fully leverage them and may well offer up no more than 180 innings.

What's the over/under on pitchers who start a game in 2012? It was 12 in 2011. It may not be that high in 2012, but 10 wouldn't surprise me. There will be ample opportunities for starting pitchers in 2012. No one deserving of an opportunity will be denied one. Only the most rosy eyed optimist would envision the opening day rotation still being a unit come the summer. In fact, I'd wager that starting pitcher #6, whoever he is, will make his first appearance in May.

bpoz - Sunday, January 29 2012 @ 09:28 AM EST (#251313) #
I think Chuck has opened an interesting wagering (friendly) game, on the Opening day SP roster.

AA said Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez & McGowan.

Last year Romero, Cecil & Morrow were locks. AA said Litsch was very similar to Marcum before his injury, so he was getting the 4th. With Morrow getting injured in ST both Drabek and Reyes were on the Opening day rotation. Who was the #6?

Not Reyes IMO, out of options & 20 starts was a long evaluation process, so they were serious about him.
TamRa - Sunday, January 29 2012 @ 05:23 PM EST (#251325) #
"What's the over/under on pitchers who start a game in 2012? It was 12 in 2011. It may not be that high in 2012, but 10 wouldn't surprise me. There will be ample opportunities for starting pitchers in 2012. No one deserving of an opportunity will be denied one. Only the most rosy eyed optimist would envision the opening day rotation still being a unit come the summer. In fact, I'd wager that starting pitcher #6, whoever he is, will make his first appearance in May."

That last is not unreasonable, but I'll take the under.

Health is always unpredictable, but I can only assume a pitcher without red flags is unlikely to be hurt (of course in the aggregate SOME guy will have his first injury - you just can figure who)

So...
1. Romero - 32 or more starts
2. Morrow - 30 or more starts, takes every turn
3. Cecil - 30 or more starts, takes every turn...UNLESS:
he is "good but not great" and prospects are kicking the door down.
4. Alvarez - up to 30 starts depending on IP, possibly shut down in September which would open the door for a 4a.

also, main candidate for regression. Possible mid-season flounder which would imply demotion and later promotion. I'll be generous and call this 4b - a player on the major league roster such as Villianuvea.

5. McGowan - will surely at some point get hurt, if he doesn't there's still the potential the team will have an inning ceiling if he begins to run out of gas; in my mind this is the spot where Drabek steps in if it's before the break, or Hutchison gets his opportunity if it's after (depending on how Drabek is doing) So that's 5a and 5b

(assuming a generous number in that 4a is someone other than Hutchison which it might not be)

so, broadly:

6. Drabek
7. Villianueva (short term stop-gap)
8. Hutchison
9. McGuire (September recall)

so that's nine without, really, getting into a hardship situation (of the sort that produced starts from people like Mills last year)

So, you can pretty much count on using at least 8-10 starters even with a reasonably good and fortunate year, because you will surely have at least one injury and one September recall starter, which means your baseline is 7 - the vaunted Rays had at least 1 start from 8 pitchers last year.

The reality of using 8-10 starters at least once is not an indicator of a sub-par pitching staff. or Season.

And beyond the nine already mentioned, there's listch, Carreno, Perez, and possibly Jenkins. (I won't mention Laffey)



the key point of difference in this discussion to me is this:

IF you were saying "I have 4 guys who need to pitch in the majors and 5 candidates for the #5 so I have an opening"

that's one thing. if Oswalt (or whoever) were blocking, Say, Listch, Villianueva, Carreno, Perez, and Jenkins....then ABSOLUTELY you need him, because none of those guys falls under "we really need to see what we have right now"

But, particularly with the packed-to-the-gills bullpen, what we actually have is two guys who are mortal locks (Romero and Morrow) two guys who you really need to see what they have once and for all because there's really nothing else you can do with them but give up and let someone else have them (Cecil and mcGowan) and two young guys competing for one spot, one of whom has yet to do ANYTHING) to make you want to send him back to the minors (Alvarez and Drabrek)


Unless one of those guys tanks or gets hurt during ST, the truth is you could have one guy going down who doesn't deserve to (actually two, if Listch stays - the handwriting is on the wall for him unless injuries open the door)

So let's say you lose two of your nominal front five in ST for some portion of the season and get to your #7 option right from Opening day - that 7th guy is Villianueva or Listch...and your calculation becomes "is the upgrade from Villianueva to Oswalt (for instance) worth the rist that Alvarez (for instance) will be in the minors when he's ready for the majors - particularly in Las Vegas.

for me, the answer is "No" because I'm not harboring ambitions of forcing contention in 2012.

We NEED to know if McGowan can hold up, if Cecil can rebound, if Alvarez will regress, if Drabek will figure it out....even before we figure out if there's a place for Hutchison or McGuire.

Long term, the answer to those questions is most likely more valuable than the marginal win or two you'd get from the signing.

on the other hand, if It's July 25 and you are one game out of the WC and have identified a real weakness in the rotation, you still have the option of going out and swinging a deal.
hypobole - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 02:01 PM EST (#251345) #
More than a few posts recommended signing Oswalt. Apparently AA did inquire, and apparently was told Oswalt had no interest in signing with the Jays.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/roy-oswalt-not-interested-in-indians-blue-jays.html
Chuck - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 02:16 PM EST (#251346) #
Nowhere for Roy to park his tractor at the Skydome.
John Northey - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 02:17 PM EST (#251347) #
Yeah, I read that too. No shock really. If you were a free agent and had the 2 teams that were in the World Series knocking on your door plus a team that hasn't been in the playoffs for nearly 20 years sharing a division with 3 strong playoff contenders which would you pick (assuming the cash is not crazy spread level)?

I figure to get someone who is also pursued by strong playoff contenders the Jays would have to blow the free agent out of the water with the bid. Thus making stuff like Darvish tempting just because it is the only way you'd get him.
greenfrog - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 03:38 PM EST (#251353) #
I find it a bit odd that some people think the Jays will bid big on Votto in a couple of years (assuming he isn't locked up before then - a big if). IMO there is no way the Jays drop $200M or more on a first baseman about to enter his 30s, even if he is an excellent player (and a Canadian boy to boot).
John Northey - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 04:13 PM EST (#251354) #
Agreed Greenfrog. There are a lot of conditions that would have to happen for the Jays to chase Votto...
1) Votto is still a star level player
2) The Canadian dollar is up to about $1.10
3) The Jays are right there for the playoffs but 1B is a black hole

Remove any of those and I don't see the Jays blowing $150-$200 million on a single player.

I figure odds are the Jays find a solid, 120 OPS+ 1B well before Votto is a free agent (if he becomes one). Lind could be, EE could be, or one of the many OF prospects could be. There is a long list of guys who have the potential and that includes the real possibility of shifting Bautista to 1B in a few years.

Of course, back in the early 90's who thought the Jays would have a black hole they couldn't fill at DH until Dave Winfield, then Paul Molitor were signed.
Chuck - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 04:18 PM EST (#251355) #

If you were a free agent and had the 2 teams that were in the World Series knocking on your door plus a team that hasn't been in the playoffs for nearly 20 years sharing a division with 3 strong playoff contenders which would you pick

I think personality type enter the mix as well. Oswalt has always struck me like a good ol' country boy. And Lance Berkman, too. Given their druthers, they'd seem to be the types to target the south or the midwest rather than the metropolitan world. Of course, I'm just guessing here. Maybe Oswalt would have been happy to return to Philly and Berkman happy to return to NY.

Mick Doherty - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 04:25 PM EST (#251356) #

right there for the playoffs but 1B is a black hole

Not an inconceiveable position -- TEX has been there for two years now!

greenfrog - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 06:13 PM EST (#251358) #
John, is there any evidence that changes in currency values really make that much of a difference? Over the last ten years, the value of Rogers stock has increased over 200%, while the loonie has increased almost 40% relative to the US dollar. Yet the Jays' payroll remains more or less unchanged (it has actually declined substantially, if you take inflation into account).

IMO it is extremely unlikely that the Jays chase Votto even if all three of your conditions are met. I just don't think the Jays are going to go after those types of FAs anytime soon (mainly for financial/corporate reasons, but also for strategic reasons - namely, that big-ticket FAs often fail to pan out). This is not necessarily a bad thing - there are other other ways to build a winner.
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