John Sickels puts the Jays at number one because of their depth. Baseball America will likely not have the Jays at number one as they focus on the star potential of the top 3-5 prospects in each organization. The Jays have a lot of depth, not as much star potential players, at least in the eyes of the scouts the prospect media talk to.

Our own Marc Hulet has posted his top 15 Jays prospects at fangraphs. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus will likely have his top 11 Jays prospects later this week.

Yeah, the star level is the next challenge. AA has done a good job hunting down Lawrie and a few of the pitchers might be star level in a year if they keep developing. The trick is to have as many prospects at as high a level as possible then you can 'luck' your way into a few star levels.

Unless, of course, the Jays do a Tampa Bay method of fighting for the #1 draft pick (the method the Mariners used to get Griffey & A-Rod) or blow $111 million on top Japanese talent :)

This is a good sign though. Still, I always remember how the Expos were always up there in the 90's and 00's and the Brewers in the late 80's and both had 0 playoff appearances to show for it. First you need talent, then you need the smarts to adjust that talent to maximize wins (ie: excess pitching traded to fill holes elsewhere).

I think John Manuel (?) at BA said the Jays' system was top 5ish in his view.

You have to remember that Sickels' rankings can be somewhat idiosyncratic. He listed Molina as the Jays' #2 prospect - a player some view as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Also, a lot of players took a quantum leap forward in 2011 (Marisnick, d'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Hutch, to name a few) - it will be interesting to see whether they can sustain this level of performance as they rise through the minors.

Overall, I love what AA has done and hope he continues to stay aggressive in adding minor-league talent. One thing he's done a great job at is stockpiling very young talent (for example, the waves of HS players and Latin Americans like Cardona and Osuna). Definitely some challenges ahead under the new CBA (IFA spending limit, draft spending restrictions, no more hoarding sandwich picks). I suspect this will make AA wary of dealing Latos-like prospect packages that deplete the system.

Speaking of "our own Marc Hulet" - he's just recently gone over 600 articles posted at fangraphs - he's the second most prolific all time contributor on that site.

Well done Marc - I love all your stuff!

Given the contributions the Jays have made to the White Sox farm system, it is amusing that the White Sox are the #30 ranked team while the Jays remain #1.

That`s a great write-up by Marc.  Just to add a little bit on Jake Barrett (who he mentions in the Hutchison review), Aaron Fitt at Baseball America posted a College ranking and had to say this about the ASU starter:

Barrett has lost 30 pounds and transformed his mentality since arriving at ASU as a freshman; he sits at 93-96, throws his power slider for strikes or as a chase pitch and has a filthy out pitch in his splitter.

On the topic of minor league systems and prospects, here's a nice in depth 2012 mock draft that includes the supplemental round as well.  Another year to stock the system.

 

http://www.throughthefencebaseball.com/2012-mlb-mock-draft-3-0-now-with-supplemental-picks/16253/

"John Sickels puts the Jays at number one because of their depth. Baseball America will likely not have the Jays at number one as they focus on the star potential of the top 3-5 prospects in each organization. The Jays have a lot of depth, not as much star potential players, at least in the eyes of the scouts the prospect media talk to."

I don't think that's entirely accurate, Gerry.

Sickels has the Jays as having 8 B+ prospects, which is almost unheard of. (Never mind the ridiculous depth of having near 30 guys ranked C+ or higher.)

He's ranked only 23 prospects in baseball higher than B+ this year (i.e. B+ is very good), and only 5 teams have more than 2 B+ or higher prospects - most teams have to make do with 1 or 2. That is a lot of what he considers high-end talent - and half those B+ guys are age 20 or younger.

The fact that we can have a list and ranking like that despite the fact that are two best prospects (probable A prospects Lawrie and Alvarez) barely missed qualifying for it is pretty dang impressive.

uglyone - by my count 9 systems have more than 2 B+ or higher prospects (STL, KC, ATL, ARZ, TOR, SEA, SD, PIT, and OAK).

However, according to Sickels, we have at least 31 C+ or better, (The 24 on his list plus Stilson, Cooper, Hawkins, Thon, Comer, Robson, Taylor. He was undecided with McDade).

Sickels did say Lawrie would have been an A if he was still a prospect. Doubt Alvarez would have though, with his low K rate and lack of a third pitch. My guess would be a borderline A-/B+

I think the prospect book shipped in the last day or two so we will find out soon. Some of the writers have said in chats that the lack of top end talent will keep the Jays from being number one. BA is just one opinion, I am not saying they are the best, they have their biases just like everyone else.

Speaking of the BA prospect book they really want you to buy from them, they make more profit than they do if you buy through Amazon. To encourage that they don't release it to Amazon for a few weeks after they ship it themselves. However there is a real cost to Canadians to buy from them as they layer on an international shipping charge that makes it almost double the price of Amazon.ca.

That's a long way of saying I ordered from Amazon so if someone gets the book in the next day or two they can let us know where the Jays system ranks.

Maybe you're right. Might as well do a full list:

TOR (8): 0 A, 0 A-, 0 B+

SDP (7): 0 A, 0 A-, 7 B+

STL (5): 1 A, 0 A-, 4 B+

SEA (4): 1 A, 2 A-, 1 B+
KCR (4): 0 A, 1 A-, 3 B+

ARI (3): 1 A, 2 A-, 0 B+
PIT (3): 1 A, 1 A-, 1 B+
ATL (3): 1 A, 0 A-, 2 B+
OAK (3): 0 A, 1 A-, 2 B+

BAL (2): 1 A, 1 A-, 0 B+
WAS (2): 1 A, 1 A-, 0 B+
TBL (2): 1 A, 0 A-, 1 B+
TEX (2): 1 A, 0 A-, 1 B+
COL (2): 0 A, 2 A-, 0 B+
CIN (2): 0 A, 1 A-, 1 B+
DET (2): 0 A, 1 A-, 1 B+
BOS (2): 0 A, 0 A-, 2 B+
CHC (2): 0 A, 0 A-, 2 B+
CHX (2): 0 A, 0 A-, 2 B+
HOU (2): 0 A, 0 A-, 2 B+
NYM (2): 0 A, 0 A-, 2 B+
PHI (2): 0 A, 0 A-, 2 B+

LAA (1): 1 A, 0 A-, 0 B+
CLE (1): 0 A, 0 A-, 1 B+
LAD (1): 0 A, 0 A-, 1 B+
MIA (1): 0 A, 0 A-, 1 B+
MIN (1): 0 A, 0 A-, 1 B+
NYY (1): 0 A, 0 A-, 1 B+
SFG (1): 0 A, 0 A-, 1 B+

MIL (0): 0 A, 0 A-, 0 B+



And then we have Lawrie who was most likely an A missing qualification by the slimmest of margins, as well as Alvarez who was definitely B+ and maybe A- himself also missing by the slimmest of margins.

I was wondering how some of the A prospects from all the organizations actually did well at the ML level. Maybe a sample of A prospects over the last 5 years. Any thoughts.

Just guessing but there cannot be too many A status pitchers.
My thinking is for example Alvarez got to AA by age 21 & succeeded without a developed 3rd & 4th pitch. If he stays an extra year down he can develop those pitches, without losing his prospect status, possibly becoming an A and is still young. IMO few teams would go that route.

Good article today in Baseball Prospectus by Kevin Goldstein about the Jays system:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15913

And I don't know why BB is doing that weird double spacing thing again.

Goldstein positively gushed about the Jays' system - as has Sickels. 2012 is such a pivotal year for the AA era; as the influx of talent in the minor leagues rises to the top, some hard decisions will have to be made. Intriguing! 

They talk about the Jays system in the latest Baseball Prospectus podcast.  One of the hosts said the Jays would be his #1 system.  Goldstein is on there as well and though he doesn't rank the systems personally, he obviously likes ours a lot.

I didn't listen to it (yet?) but Goldstein re-Tweet'd the link this morning: http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content=20120127_001330_612.