Yesterday we looked at the placement of minor league catchers for 2012 and it was relatively straightforward. Today we look at first basemen and the picture is much more muddled.
Las Vegas
Vegas is the first team with a logjam at first base. There is no spot for David Cooper in Toronto and so he is ticketed to return to AAA. Mike McDade played well in AA last season, very well before he hurt his knee, and he is due for a call-up to AAA. So what do the Jays do? They have three options:
1. Keep both players in AAA and have them alternate between 1B and DH
2. Keep Mike McDade in AA
3. Release and/or trade one of them
These decisions are not made in a vacuum, are there other DH candidates on the AAA roster? Are there other first basemen ticketed for AA? Is there an active trade market for Cooper or McDade and would the Jays be willing to trade them?
To partially answer those questions, there are no priority DH candidates in Las Vegas; there are a couple of players who could play first base in AA but again, not on a priority basis; there is no real trade market for David Cooper unless the Jays wanted to dump him, the trade market for McDade could be stronger than for Cooper.
Cooper is two years older than McDade, Cooper will turn 25 next month while McDade will turn 23 in May.
Does McDade deserve to play in AAA? I think he does. Your opinion on this issue might come down to how you interpret McDade's 2011 season. McDade hurt his knee mid-year and needed surgery after the season to repair it. His stats appear to confirm that with an 880 OPS before the all-star break and an OPS of 561 after. David Cooper, in his second season in AA had an OPS of 769, McDade's full season OPS was 785. The pre and post all-star numbers really show up in the power department. McDade's isolated power was 525 before the all-star break and 294 after. You could claim that the league caught up to McDade, or that he got into some bad habits, but my money is on the knee injury sapping his power. Because of that I believe both Cooper and McDade will be in Las Vegas in 2012.
New Hampshire
So who plays first base in AA? Dunedin in 2011 had Jon Talley as the regular first baseman. Talley only hit .241 but did walk and hit 20 home runs. Sean Ochinko, who we mentioned yesterday, in the catcher discussion also played some first base in Dunedin and he had the same OPS as Talley, with a higher batting average and less power. In this case there is some pressure from behind as KC Hobson is headed for Dunedin putting pressure on Talley and/or Ochinko to move up.
I think Ochinko and Talley will both move up.
Dunedin
KC Hobson didn't stand out in Lansing last season but he is 21 now and it's time to keep pushing him to see how he reacts to the promotion. Hobson was a sixth round draft choice, the same as Mike McDade. First base is a power position and Hobson hasn't shown big power, but he is still young. Mike McDade has his breakout season at age 20. Can KC Hobson have his at age 21?
Lansing
First base will be an interesting choice by the Jays. Balbino Fuenmayor could be back, or Art Charles, Eric Arce or Kevin Patterson could get the promotion. Patterson played in Vancouver in 2011, a level that is close to that of the Midwest League. Charles and Arce played in Bluefield and the GCL. For those reasons either Balbino or Patterson look like the favourites to me. Arce has possibly the most potential and if the Jays agree he could get the job but given that he just tunred 20, he might have to wait a while.
Tomorrow is middle infield day.
