Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Pads deal top 1B prospect to Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have acquired first base prospect Anthony Rizzo from the Padres today in a four-player deal that sends former first-round pick Andrew Cashner to the West Coast.

Rizzo, a lefty-hitting slugger drafted by Boston under now-Cub Theo Epstein's regime and acquired by San Diego last winter as part of the prospect package in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, is expected to be Chicago's regular first baseman in 2012..

Rizzo, 22, hit .331 at Triple-A Tucson last year with 26 home runs and 101 RBIs, with a 423 on-base percentage and .652 slugging percentage. He was ranked the No. 3 prospect in the Padres system, and made his major league debut for San Diego in 2011, struggling with a .141 average in 128 at-bats in 49 games. (I believe that number of AB means he is still officially a rookie, right?)

The Cubs also sent outfielder Kyung-Min Na to the Padres, and received pitcher Zach Kates.

Escaping that pitcher's paradise San Diego to play in the Wrigley bandbox? This isn't a prediction, but just an observation .... the rookie HR record is McGwire with 49, you know ...

Posted by Mick Doherty on Friday, January 06 2012 @ 03:30 PM EST.

Pads deal top 1B prospect to Cubs | 26 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

sam - Friday, January 06 2012 @ 04:02 PM EST (#250223) #

I like Anthony Rizzo a lot. I would've liked to have seen the Jays acquire him. Based on the package the Padres received for Rizzo, Deck MacGuire might have been enough for him. I would have done that deal.

greenfrog - Friday, January 06 2012 @ 05:48 PM EST (#250224) #

Interesting Q&A in Jim Callis's BA recent chat on the Red Sox system. His response probably makes equal sense for the Jays:

Jeff (Madison): If you were the GM of the Red Sox would you make a trade for Matt Garza? If so what players would you make available? While keeping in mind that the compensation for Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein has yet be resolved. Is there a match? Thanks for answering this question.

Jim Callis: I might not, to be honest. It's not going to be as easy to add talent internationally and through the draft like the Red Sox have been doing, and I wouldn't be looking to give up three or so quality prospects for a pitcher who's more of a No. 3 starter than a No. 1 and who is getting more and more expensive each year.

greenfrog - Friday, January 06 2012 @ 05:59 PM EST (#250225) #

Centrefield doesn't seem to be a huge need, but I wonder whether the Jays will bid on 19-year-old Cuban prospect Jorge Soler (would signing him be subject to the new CBA rules on IFAs, or does that only kick in next year?). It would be pretty cool to see a CF depth chart of Rasmus/Gose/Marisnick/Soler. AA could always trade one of them if it turns out that the team has a true surplus of talent.

Glevin - Friday, January 06 2012 @ 06:52 PM EST (#250226) #

Rizzo has a lot of upside, but he also clearly has some work to be done. He wasn't bad last year because he was in San Diego, he was bad because he couldn't hit at all. Still, the Cubs didn't seem to give up as much as they should have for a very good prospect.

Richard S.S. - Friday, January 06 2012 @ 08:00 PM EST (#250229) #

Wow, someone else see's Garza as a # 3 Starter. I agree that "3 or so quality prospects" for someone, who's a # 1 Starter, is a fair price.

Rizzo`s not Adam Lind or Travis Snider, so is he AAAA, or is he a slow starter.

#2JBrumfield - Friday, January 06 2012 @ 10:30 PM EST (#250231) #

He was ranked the No. 3 prospect in the Padres system

Rizzo was actually rated #1 after 2011 in the Friars system by Baseball America. The Padres gave up on him pretty quickly. That narrows the first base competition in San Diego to the recently acquired Yonder Alonso and Jesus Guzman.

whiterasta80 - Friday, January 06 2012 @ 11:26 PM EST (#250232) #

I believe Kyle Blanks may also be in the 1B discussion along with LF.

Thomas - Saturday, January 07 2012 @ 11:19 AM EST (#250234) #

I've read the Padres think Alonso is better suited to their park than Rizzo. In any case, it seems like a low return for him, particularly if Cashner is limited to the bullpen, as some expect.

Their hands were tied somewhat, but the return for Gonzalez is looking less and less appealing.

greenfrog - Saturday, January 07 2012 @ 12:24 PM EST (#250235) #

It's hard to provide a snap evaluation of this trade IMO. Cashner and/or Rizzo could be very good major-leaguers, or one or both could flame out. The other prospects changing hands are (as Klaw puts it) essentially lottery tickets. It will interesting to see how this one looks in 2-3 years.

92-93 - Saturday, January 07 2012 @ 01:29 PM EST (#250236) #

Andrew Cashner's stuff is significantly better than McGuire's, so you'd have to really value Deck's durability to draw any sort of comparison. I think it's more likely that the Cubs were interested in a couple of the higher ceiling arms and that the Jays weren't interested in parting with them for Rizzo. Josh Byrnes might have seen the Bailey & Santos trades and figures he can get 2-3 cheap seasons of 60-100ip from Cashner out of the bullpen, intending to then flip him for new prospects (like a Nestor Molina) before he gets expensive in arb. Hoyer loves him some Rizzo, that's for sure.

Mylegacy - Saturday, January 07 2012 @ 07:06 PM EST (#250243) #

OPEN NOTE TO AA:

(Preface: I understand you are aware of what I'm going to suggest and watching the situation unfold - I trust you - however...)

With Rizzo hunkering down in the Windy City another realistic landing place for the Fat Prince dries some.

Alex, PLEASE don't take your eye (and mind) off the Cholesterolly Challenged one. IF - some team gets His Chubbness for a 5 - or even 6 - year contract in the $125 - $150(ish) area you may end up kicking your self it wasn't the Jays. I have a hard time seeing Prince (formerly named Fat Prince) truly falling off a cliff by the time he's 32 or 33...even at 34 I can't see him being a complete bust even given his Rotundness.

Without question - we won't see his quality of a bat availabe as a free agent in the near(ish) future - WITH SO FEW BIG PLAYERS NOT SALIVATING AFTER HIM. His power and his on base percentages should make him a QUALITY addition for at the very least four years - OK in the 5th and passable in the 6th.

Alex - we're close to glory Alex - closer than many fans realize - possibly even closer than you may realize. IF this guy's cost comes anywhere near OK - pull the trigger.

Go on - do it - we'll still love you in the morning!

Mick Doherty - Saturday, January 07 2012 @ 07:13 PM EST (#250244) #

Without question - we won't see his quality of a bat availabe as a free agent in the near(ish) future

True. Next year's crop of FA, Josh Hamilton's bat is MUCH higher quality!

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, January 07 2012 @ 07:41 PM EST (#250245) #

Alex, PLEASE don't take your eye (and mind) off the Cholesterolly Challenged one. IF - some team gets His Chubbness for a 5 - or even 6 - year contract in the $125 - $150(ish) area you may end up kicking your self it wasn't the Jays.

There was a report today on mlbtr (I know, as unreliable as it gets) that the one team likely willing to go overboard for Fielder (who has already reportedly turned down 6/120 from his own team), is the Seattle Mariners. The report said that the question is whether Fielder wants to play in Seattle.

There is no reason to believe that Fielder is at all interested in coming to Toronto. My guess is Fielder will end up taking a rich 5 year deal to play in Texas. At which point many will wrongly assume that he would have come to Toronto for the same or slightly more. I doubt Alex will be kicking himself over not signing someone if Fielder is disinterested in Toronto.

Mylegacy - Saturday, January 07 2012 @ 11:25 PM EST (#250250) #

Mick - I LOVE Hamilton. While he is a great redemption story - this is a guy who's misused his body for years - while the Fat Prince may have a tiny weight problem - I suspect Mr Hamilton has a few physical and mental problems which will one day rear their tiny heads. Also, Fielder turns 28 in May 2012 and Josh turns 31 in May 2012 - Hamilton is 3 years older.

CDC - You - and lots of other sources say -
"There is no reason to believe Fielder is at all interested in coming to Toronto."

Really.

Me - I'm not so fussy about Hog Town either - but for 150 million smackers - hell - I'd put up with it for a few summers. What can it hurt? They got liquor stores ain't they?

hypobole - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 02:15 AM EST (#250257) #

Scouts.com's Frankie Piliere has released his Top 100 prospect list. 7 Jays on the list with a few surprises - d'Arnaud ranked only 43rd; no Nicolino or McGuire. But he is higher on Adonys Cardona than any other evaluator I've seen, ranking him at #84.

http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=9&c=12&yr=2012&nid=287&lnid=287&rc=4

Glevin - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 09:20 AM EST (#250261) #

"Without question - we won't see his quality of a bat availabe as a free agent in the near(ish) future

True. Next year's crop of FA, Josh Hamilton's bat is MUCH higher quality!"

Why would you say that? Fielder is pretty clearly a better hitter than Hamilton. Look at their career numbers. It's not all that close especially when you consider that all of Hamilton's numbers have been put up during his peak years of 26-30. (Not to mention that he is 3 years older, and has a body that breaks down every year, something that is unlikely to improve.)

grjas - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 10:43 AM EST (#250264) #

Scouts.com's Frankie Piliere has released his Top 100 prospect list. 7 Jays on the list with a few surprises - d'Arnaud ranked only 43rd; no Nicolino or McGuire.

The data certainly reinforces the depth of our minor league teams. Only 2 other MLB teams had 7 on the list, and most only had 2 or 3. It would be nice to have a few higher up the rankings, but given the uncertainty of predicting future stars, I'm more than happy with the depth. Especially with some top talent off the list (eg McGuire)

greenfrog - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 12:40 PM EST (#250265) #

Kevin Cash has retired and is now a Blue Jays scout:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/kevin-cash-retires.html

92-93 - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 01:32 PM EST (#250266) #

Elliott told us 6 weeks ago that Cash would be the first advance scout the Jays used since Sal Butera in 2004.

Chuck - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 01:36 PM EST (#250267) #

Is that Kevin Cash or Kevin Crash, as in Crash Davis? Cash is spoken highly of for the potential his post-playing career holds. Yet another catcher in such a role. Surprise, surprise. Perhaps he can get Ron Shelton to write his dialogue.

As a player, Cash managed the near impossible: making John McDonald look like a hitting star. Above and beyond presumed defensive strengths, he must have been highly thought of as a person to have been allowed to hang around as long as he did.

Cash: 183/248/278, OPS+ 37
McDonald: 238/275/328, OPS+ 59

John Northey - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 08:01 PM EST (#250280) #

Checking B-R I see Cash ends with 4 years 22 days of ML service time despite that 37 OPS+. He also pitched 1 inning (ERA of 9) and played 4 games at third base for Boston in 2008. He also has a WS ring from both Boston and NYY, a rare combination at one time.

For Tampa in 2005 he hit 293/354/544...in AAA. He had a 739 lifetime OPS in the minors, much better than I expected.

Always found backup catchers interesting. Rarely can hit, and most of their value is in their defence which few can truly define.

melondough - Sunday, January 08 2012 @ 11:02 PM EST (#250284) #

After looking over the prospects the Padres got in the Latos and Rizzo deal I am wondering to myself how they compare to the Jays prospect list (as far as John Sickels rates them). Based on all grading done so far (only Oakland remains) I think Toronto and San Diego rank as two of the top prospect systems when comparing Sickels team reports. That said I fully realize a B+ rating is not equal to all other B+ rating, etc.

I have accounted for the prospects the Padres have traded for this off season (and their ratings per Sickel) which are as follows:

Grandal(B+), Alonso(B+), Boxberger(B-), Cashman(C+), Kyung-Min Na(C)

Below I have tried to match up each team�s prospects using Sickels ratings with where Sickels ranks each player on their respective team noted (as well as his comments). In order to compare I have tried keeping player positions the same where possible. Jays should show up as bolded and Padres in red.

Who would you say have the better B-,B,B+ prospects?

1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade B+: Borderline A-: He would be an A- or maybe even an A if he was more effective at throwing out runners and struck out less often, but he can really hit and is still a superior prospect even with those weaknesses.

Grandal, C, Grade B+ (from Latos deal)

2) Jake Marisnick, OF, Grade B+: Speed, defense, and a greatly improved bat. More power development would get him into the A-range.

3) Rymer Liriano, OF, Grade B+: You can make a case to rank him above Rizzo, although they are very different players. Five Tool/Seven Skill potential is obvious, and he made strides with the strike zone last year. Scouts love him and the numbers are catching up.

3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade B+: I'm a believer in his stats, his size, his command, and his fastball, and I think the secondary stuff will come around. Can easily be in the A-range next year.

5) Robbie Erlin, LHP, Grade B+: Extremely close between Erlin and Wieland, but I'll go with Erlin due to lefty premium and nine month age edge. I know he doesn't have a blistering fastball, but the guy has superb command of deceptive stuff, plus pornographic statistics. Should do well in this ballpark.

4) Justin Nicolino, LHP, Grade B+: I think Syndergaard's ultimate ceiling is a bit higher, but Nicolino isn't far behind, and is more polished with his secondary pitches. Could also be in the A-range next year.

6) Joe Wieland, RHP, Grade B+: Hard to believe they got Wieland and Erlin for Mike Adams. Like Robbie, Joe's fastball plays past it's velocity due to terrific command and impressive secondary pitches.

5) Daniel Norris, LHP, Grade B+: Higher physical ceiling than Nicolino, but I want to see him in pro ball before ranking him ahead.

7) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Grade B+: Baseball America seems oddly reserved about him, but he looks great to me, other Midwest League sources are very positive, he throws hard, his stat profile is strong, and he's athletic.

6) Deck McGuire, RHP, Grade B+ Doesn't have the ceiling of the younger guys, but should be a solid inning-eater at worst and won't need much longer in the minors.

Alonso, 1B, Grade B+ (From the Latos deal)

7) Drew Hutchison, RHP, Grade B+. You can't argue with his results even if he doesn't have as much physical upside as the guys ahead. Like McGuire, an efficiency expert who should chew through innings.

4) Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Grade B+ : I believe in the bat and he can handle third base. Should hit for average, post solid OBP, with at least moderate power.

8) Anthony Gose, OF, Grade B: Other people will probably rank him higher due to his tools. He's made a lot of progress, but his hitting approach remains quite raw and the strikeout rate still bothers me. Made big strides refining his defense and baserunning. Grade A tools, Grade C+ skills, makes him a strong Grade B overall.

9) Cory Spangenberg, 2B, Grade B: Borderline B+: On-base machine with some gap power and 70-speed. Needs to polish defense but pure hitting skills are sharp. He was a slight overdraft at 10th overall but not by a terrible amount.

9) A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade B-: Superior defensive skills and hits for average, even steals a few bases. How much power will he develop?

14) Austin Hedges, C, Grade B-: Superior defensive catcher. Scouts have mixed opinions about his bat; some think he can hit for a decent average with touches of power, others don't think he'll hit enough to play regularly despite his glove. Not enough objective data yet to have a sabermetric opinion, although most catchers with a similar plus-glove/questionable-bat profile coming out of high school don't make it. If he hits, will rank much higher next year.

10) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-: Very high upside arm, didn't blossom as some of the other guys did, but that could come in 2012 with some command refinements.

8) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. Kelly will rank ahead of Erlin and Wieland on most lists, and I might be undergrading him a notch, but there are some things here that hold me back from a higher grade. He didn't dominate Double-A despite repeating the league, his secondary stuff isn't as refined as Erlin/Wieland, his fastball isn't consistently faster, and he is a full year older than Erlin and almost two years older than Sampson. He still looks like a fine mid-rotation starter but I don't see him as a potential ace. I'm thinking about this grade and this one is far from final.

11) Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, Grade B-: His season was not as bad as you think and he was hot towards the end. Breakout candidate for 2012.

Boxberger, P, Grade B- (from the Latos deal)

12) Adonys Cardona, RHP, Grade B-: High-upside projectable big-bonus arm from Venezuela, rookie ball performance was spotty but he is very young. Potential for a much higher grade next year.

12) Joe Ross, RHP, Grade B-: Could theoretically be the top pitching prospect in the system a year from now. More advanced than brother Tyson at the same age, and has a higher physical upside than the pitchers ahead of him, but let's get some data first.

13) Jacob Anderson, OF, Grade B-: Power bat from California high school ranks, looked strong in very brief rookie ball debut, high power ceiling.

10) James Darnell, OF-3B, Grade B-: I like the bat a lot, but age and positional questions preclude a higher grade. Should be a solid run producer.

14) Dwight Smith, Jr, OF, Grade B-: Pure hitter from Georgia high school ranks, and I think his tools may be underrated. Need some professional data before ranking higher.

13) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B-: Seems to improve his physical conditioning every year, even stole 15 bases in '11, strong throwing arm. Patient to a fault, needs to find balance between aggression and passivity. Could put up huge numbers at Tucson.

15) Joe Musgrove, RHP, Grade B-: High school arm from 2011 draft looking to repeat what Nicolino and Syndergaard did this year. Big body, good stuff, showed good control in rookie ball debut.

15) Anthony Bass, RHP, Grade B-: Doesn't have upside of the pitchers ahead of him, but ready to help now. Lack of major league strikeouts is concerning, but the park will help him.

16) Matt Dean, 3B, Grade B-: Another upside guy from 2011 draft that we need to see in pro ball. Potential to hit for power, hit for average, and provide solid defense at third.

16) Juan Oramas, LHP, Grade B-: Short, bad body, but exhibits strong command of solid southpaw stuff, succeeded in Double-A. Could develop into a very nice fourth starter, or possibly some tasty trade bait.

Mick Doherty - Monday, January 09 2012 @ 01:13 AM EST (#250288) #

melondough, that' really well put together, but in future posts, please don't use so much copy cut and pasted directly from someone else's work on another site. (At least you cited him, which is really good, but you could also include a link to the work and simply summarize it for your purposes rather than directly lifting it. (I am assuming this is what you did based on your own comments in the intro, but if not, ignore me and never mind, apologies.) Thank you in advance!

hypobole - Monday, January 09 2012 @ 01:41 AM EST (#250289) #

melondough, Cashner (Cashman in your post) lost his rookie status last year so is no longer considered a prospect.

You have some interesting matchups; one that particularly interests me is Cardona/Ross. Cardona may have had a 4.55 ERA in the GCL, but his FIP was 3.14 and he K'ed almost 10 per 9. Pretty darn good for a 17 yr old. Ross (who went 4 picks after the Jays took Beede) was wowing observers at the Padres instructs. Will be fun to see how these 2 progress.

As far as system strengths, only 25 each of the Padres/Jays were graded. Yet in another post Sickels acknowledged 5 more C+ Jays and although he ranked Osuna, I don't think he even mentioned the other 3 $1 million plus kids (Lugo, Becerra, Gonzalez). Jays have a deep, deep system.

bpoz - Monday, January 09 2012 @ 11:13 AM EST (#250297) #

Thanks melondough.

melondough - Monday, January 09 2012 @ 03:26 PM EST (#250316) #

please don't use so much copy cut and pasted directly from someone else's work on another site.

Mick, I understand this (and normally go out of my way to adhere to this rule) but it would be very hard to provide a easy to follow comparison with a link. Anyhow I have noted this and will try to make sure I continue to link as often as possible. As per your point I did make sure I gave credit to the author of those points - John Sickel. I don't think anyone reading my post would interpret the notes as being made be me.

Pads deal top 1B prospect to Cubs | 26 comments | Create New Account

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